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UK Politics: Electioneering


Werthead

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2 minutes ago, denstorebog said:

In hindsight, this is either going to go down as a reasonable statement or as one of the funniest election night tweets in a long time.

It wouldn't be a surprise if they're right based on the two results we've had.

Last time the exit poll underestimated the Tories by about 15 seats.

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Is there a better website than the beeb to keep an eye on progress?

Could the Cons govern as a minority government? Or do they not have enough minor party votes to keep them in on confidence and supply and get through their main legislative agenda?

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According to the BBC, rumblings from Conservative Central Office that if the majority is under 30, May will "not be allowed" to fight the 2022 election. Significantly less than 30 may make May's position utterly untenable, even if the Tories do win. Can she walk into the Brexit negotiations having failed to achieve an increased majority with any credibility?

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3 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Is there a better website than the beeb to keep an eye on progress?

It's not Sky, that's for certain. I ย just switched over to the bbc. Though I should probably just go to sleep. The BBC does seem to have more numbers.ย 

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The BBC reporting that Labour will hold Cambridge. That's bad for the Lib Dems, that's a key seat for them to take to get those numbers up. However, a recount isn't being ruled out.

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Imagine being so sure of your position you call an election 3 whole years early to win a mandate and then you fuck it up.

Almost as bad as calling a referendum before you were properly prepared and screwing that up.

It's as if the Tory party was being run by a bunch of incompetents.

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So the exit polls say:

Conservativesย ย ย  314 (-17)

Labourย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย  266 (+34)

Lib Demย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย  14 (+6)

SNPย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย  34 (-22)

That's for those of us who don't see the live coverage.

ย 

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Sunderland turnout is 5% higher than in 2015, almost entirely down to the youth vote. If repeated across the country, that could change the story again.

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Just now, Fragile Bird said:

So the exit polls say:

Conservativesย ย ย  314 (-17)

Labourย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย  266 (+34)

Lib Demย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย  14 (+6)

SNPย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย  34 (-22)

That's for those of us who don't see the live coverage.

Oh sorry, I thought you were asking if there was a second poll.

This is the definition of nail-biting.

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Just now, Werthead said:

Oh sorry, I thought you were asking if there was a second poll.

This is the definition of nail-biting.

I was. Here, in North America, because of the size of our countries, exit polls are constantly updated, since polling stations close at different times. I thought I would post the numbers so people see them. I should have at the beginning.

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The BBC are indicating that Croydon Central has gone to Labour, which could be a key seat if the vote is going to goย the way of the poll.ย 

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Doh I forgot UK has a winner-takes-all seat-level system. Vote consolidation accross blocks significant then, possibly more so than actual increase in opposite block votes.

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I'm kinda surprised at the number of high-profile politicians, analysts, etc. tweeting stuff รก la "IF THIS EXIT POLL IS CORRECT, [INSERT DRAMATIC CONCLUSION ABOUT WHO NEEDS TO RETIRE FROM POLITICS HERE]". Don't these Brits know how much Brits suck at polling?

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Just now, denstorebog said:

I'm kinda surprised at the number of high-profile politicians, analysts, etc. tweeting stuff รก la "IF THIS EXIT POLL IS CORRECT, [INSERT DRAMATIC CONCLUSION ABOUT WHO NEEDS TO RETIRE FROM POLITICS HERE]". Don't these Brits know how much Brits suck at polling?

Exit polls for two of the last three elections were spot on. Brexit was a very close vote.

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