Werthead Posted June 8, 2017 Author Share Posted June 8, 2017 Quote ย "It simply just doesnโt add up"ย ย Neither did their manifesto, but hey ho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Mongoose Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, denstorebog said: In hindsight, this is either going to go down as a reasonable statement or as one of the funniest election night tweets in a long time. It wouldn't be a surprise if they're right based on the two results we've had. Last time the exit poll underestimated the Tories by about 15 seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Is there a better website than the beeb to keep an eye on progress? Could the Cons govern as a minority government? Or do they not have enough minor party votes to keep them in on confidence and supply and get through their main legislative agenda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datepalm Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 BBC has more data than NY Times or Guardian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted June 8, 2017 Author Share Posted June 8, 2017 According to the BBC, rumblings from Conservative Central Office that if the majority is under 30, May will "not be allowed" to fight the 2022 election. Significantly less than 30 may make May's position utterly untenable, even if the Tories do win. Can she walk into the Brexit negotiations having failed to achieve an increased majority with any credibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raja Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said: Is there a better website than the beeb to keep an eye on progress? It's not Sky, that's for certain. I ย just switched over to the bbc. Though I should probably just go to sleep. The BBC does seem to have more numbers.ย Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted June 8, 2017 Author Share Posted June 8, 2017 The BBC reporting that Labour will hold Cambridge. That's bad for the Lib Dems, that's a key seat for them to take to get those numbers up. However, a recount isn't being ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Imagine being so sure of your position you call an election 3 whole years early to win a mandate and then you fuck it up. Almost as bad as calling a referendum before you were properly prepared and screwing that up. It's as if the Tory party was being run by a bunch of incompetents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 So the exit polls say: Conservativesย ย ย 314 (-17) Labourย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย 266 (+34) Lib Demย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย 14 (+6) SNPย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย 34 (-22) That's for those of us who don't see the live coverage. ย Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted June 8, 2017 Author Share Posted June 8, 2017 Sunderland turnout is 5% higher than in 2015, almost entirely down to the youth vote. If repeated across the country, that could change the story again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted June 8, 2017 Author Share Posted June 8, 2017 Just now, Fragile Bird said: So the exit polls say: Conservativesย ย ย 314 (-17) Labourย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย 266 (+34) Lib Demย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย 14 (+6) SNPย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย 34 (-22) That's for those of us who don't see the live coverage. Oh sorry, I thought you were asking if there was a second poll. This is the definition of nail-biting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Just now, Werthead said: Oh sorry, I thought you were asking if there was a second poll. This is the definition of nail-biting. I was. Here, in North America, because of the size of our countries, exit polls are constantly updated, since polling stations close at different times. I thought I would post the numbers so people see them. I should have at the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted June 8, 2017 Author Share Posted June 8, 2017 The BBC are indicating that Croydon Central has gone to Labour, which could be a key seat if the vote is going to goย the way of the poll.ย Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datepalm Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Doh I forgot UK has a winner-takes-all seat-level system. Vote consolidation accross blocks significant then, possibly more so than actual increase in opposite block votes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denstorebog Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 I'm kinda surprised at the number of high-profile politicians, analysts, etc. tweeting stuff รก la "IF THIS EXIT POLL IS CORRECT, [INSERT DRAMATIC CONCLUSION ABOUT WHO NEEDS TO RETIRE FROM POLITICS HERE]". Don't these Brits know how much Brits suck at polling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Mongoose Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Huge swing to the Tories in Sunderland Central! Edit: OK not huge. But still significant. UKIP vote collapsing in the North East and mostly going to the Conservatives. But will that continue in the marginals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Just now, denstorebog said: I'm kinda surprised at the number of high-profile politicians, analysts, etc. tweeting stuff รก la "IF THIS EXIT POLL IS CORRECT, [INSERT DRAMATIC CONCLUSION ABOUT WHO NEEDS TO RETIRE FROM POLITICS HERE]". Don't these Brits know how much Brits suck at polling? Exit polls for two of the last three elections were spot on. Brexit was a very close vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 What would happen if there were actually a "tied" parliament? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Mongoose Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Newcastle (with a smaller UKIP vote) likes the Tories a lot less than Sunderland. Better news for the exit pollsters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Mongoose Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: What would happen if there were actually a "tied" parliament? Depends if a party can join with other smaller parties to form a government. If not, another election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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