UK Politics: Post-May Edition

[Chaircat Meow]

Just now, mormont said:

UKIP's vote collapsed everywhere, so that's not really telling.

True, didn't phrase that well.

It seemed to me the UKIP collapse was really not benefiting us in the way we hoped. In seats where UKIP had done well in 2015 their collapse did not seem to give us a corresponding increase in votes while Labour were picking up more new votes than we were. Of course, Labour could have got those votes from elsewhere and not from the collapsing UKIP vote, but I think it is likely there was a lot more UKIP-Lab switching than we all thought probable (which is not to say I think Labour got anywhere near the number of ex-UKIP vote we did).  

[Philokles]

The DUP will support Brexit, but such a small majority with them will mean Tory remainers like Soubry could still cause quite a headache.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

29 minutes ago, mormont said:

Scotland did. Wales didn't. Northern Ireland overall did, but the DUP as a party (and they are only one party in NI, albeit the largest) were and are pro-Brexit.

Thanks for the info. The articles I've read from U.S. publications didn't really cover DUP. 

[The Marquis de Leech]

26 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

True, didn't phrase that well.

It seemed to me the UKIP collapse was really not benefiting us in the way we hoped.   

In some areas it did. The five Tory gains from Labour tend to follow the same pattern:

2005: safe Labour

2010: big swing from Labour to Liberal Democrats

2015: Labour holds steady, Liberal Democrats crash, UKIP soars

2017: Labour gains slightly, UKIP crashes, Tories soar and win the seat.

To me, it seems like these five were "deferred" Labour losses from 2010, where the protest vote found a couple of homes before going Tory.

May gunning for seats where UKIP were strong wasn't silly. I mean, we are talking an election where Kensington and Canterbury went Labour, and Mansfield and North-East Derbyshire went Tory. Dennis Skinner's majority got halved. In some ways, these seats show what a 2017 Tory landslide would have looked like, had it not been thwarted by the campaign. 

[Fragile Bird]

I truly hope those of you going to Worldcon managed to pick up some euros before the election.

[mormont]

PM May Promises To Provide 'Certainty'

She has to be trolling us with that.

[Zorral]

I remain unclear as to why Scotland ended up going Tory.  UK politics and system are kind of difficult for people who didn't grow up with them (like me) to grasp.  Still, this election become an interesting development from my perspective over here -- so much what May didn't expect.

It does seem that voting nationalist is down all through Europe as the world watches our Great Cock-Up sledgehammer our nation, economy, institutions and systems to flinders.

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

22 minutes ago, mormont said:

PM May Promises To Provide 'Certainty'

She has to be trolling us with that.

Shes off her nut. Its like she's living in upside down world. Whats with all those photos of her smiling? Why is she smiling!?

[mormont]

6 minutes ago, Zorral said:

I remain unclear as to why Scotland ended up going Tory.

As I said above, it's a mix. The Scottish Tory leader is relatively popular, being much more moderate than the English party on all issues but particularly on social issues (being an out gay woman doesn't hurt there). At the same time, the Tories have managed to position themselves as the main opposition to another independence referendum, and so the main opposition to the SNP. In particular they have a clear, unequivocal pro-Brexit, pro-Union stance, which the other parties either don't share or (in the case of Labour) appear a bit muddled on. They campaigned very heavily on the record of the SNP administration in the devolved Parliament, particularly education, which being a devolved issue wasn't actually relevant to this election but they made hay with it anyway. And they've benefited in this election from tactical voting, as have the other Unionist parties, it seems.

[Zorral]

6 minutes ago, mormont said:

As I said above, it's a mix. The Scottish Tory leader is relatively popular, being much more moderate than the English party on all issues but particularly on social issues (being an out gay woman doesn't hurt there). At the same time, the Tories have managed to position themselves as the main opposition to another independence referendum, and so the main opposition to the SNP. In particular they have a clear, unequivocal pro-Brexit, pro-Union stance, which the other parties either don't share or (in the case of Labour) appear a bit muddled on. They campaigned very heavily on the record of the SNP administration in the devolved Parliament, particularly education, which being a devolved issue wasn't actually relevant to this election but they made hay with it anyway. And they've benefited in this election from tactical voting, as have the other Unionist parties, it seems.

OK.  I'm unsure I understood all that but thank you!

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

You guys missed out on the perfect title, methinks. Theresa May and her Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day.  

[King Tyrant]

53 minutes ago, mormont said:

PM May Promises To Provide 'Certainty'

She has to be trolling us with that.

In fairness, a certainty of ineptitude is still certainty of a sort.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 hour ago, Channel4s-JonSnow said:

Shes off her nut. Its like she's living in upside down world. Whats with all those photos of her smiling? Why is she smiling!?

Yet, you believe(d) she was the one to do the Brexit negotiations.

1 hour ago, mormont said:

As I said above, it's a mix. The Scottish Tory leader is relatively popular, being much more moderate than the English party on all issues but particularly on social issues (being an out gay woman doesn't hurt there). At the same time, the Tories have managed to position themselves as the main opposition to another independence referendum, and so the main opposition to the SNP. In particular they have a clear, unequivocal pro-Brexit, pro-Union stance, which the other parties either don't share or (in the case of Labour) appear a bit muddled on. They campaigned very heavily on the record of the SNP administration in the devolved Parliament, particularly education, which being a devolved issue wasn't actually relevant to this election but they made hay with it anyway. And they've benefited in this election from tactical voting, as have the other Unionist parties, it seems.

Hum, was a desire for a period of relatively calm and turmoil free period a factor?

From the outside it looked like parties that promised another big referendum with more turmoil and a bigger divide got somewhat punished. The SNP in Scotland with IndyRef2 (though I still think Sturgeon had to go down that road), and to a lesser extent the LibDems (with their promise/threat of another Brexit referendum) in the other parts of the UK. Yes, they picked up a few seats in Scotland, but overall I guess they would have hoped for a better result - e.g. losing Clegg losing his seat, and Farron just barely hanging onto his.

Anyway, back to May and the Tories. I don't think the Tories or the UK as a whole have that much time on their hands to off May and have another general election. That Brexit negotiations will have to start at some point. Her snap election has already delayed the whole process, and the clock is ticking (and it was the whole time). I saw that DUP dude on BBC, and his Brexit position was somewhat incosistant. "We support Brexit and control of migration, and we want a non-rigid border to the Republic of Ireland." WHen the moderator pointed out, that those two positions are somewhat contradictory to each other. His response was talking about history. This is going to be fun.

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

Nope. I said a coalition or tiny majority is bad for negotiations. And it is. 

[polishgenius]

5 minutes ago, Leap said:

As Tory MPs go, mine wasn't so bad, but on principle I am extremely excited to have a Labour MP.

This kind of thing really highlights why it's so problematic for us to be voting for our local representative and national leadership at the same time. My local MP is Grant Shapps (who held) and although he has had some seriously embarrassing moments when he's shown up on the national stage, as a representative and campaigner for local issues he's really very good indeed, incredibly active and quite approachable.
But I can't vote for him, because I can't vote for the Tories on a national level.

[Werthead]

We live in interesting times.

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Unless we have a situation like Brexit where we claim nobody knew what it is they were voting for (eyeroll) , then I can only assume that the population of this country thought a tiny majority or a hung parliament was a good thing. Of course May has to be strung up for this, but yes people should take responsibility for their votes. 

I voted Tory. I don't like the Tories. I could see this happening but I was put into a position where I had to think about the best outcome. This is the worst outcome.

Negative. The worst outcome would have been a strong Tory majority driving through things like healthcare privatisation, more savage welfare cuts and more cuts to the police, whilst preparing for a hard Brexit.

There seems to be a private acknowledgement in many circles that 16 months is simply insufficient time to negotiate any kind of deal that all 27 member states will agree to and the result will be a hard Brexit, and people were going to have to get used to that. Now, the DUP influence may require a softer Brexit with some kind of nod at the customs union and single market. It may still be unviable, but now it seems a bit more plausible than it did 24 hours ago.

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The DUP will support Brexit, but such a small majority with them will mean Tory remainers like Soubry could still cause quite a headache.

 

You also start the ticking time bomb of by-elections. As they creep up, it's very unlikely that the Tories will retain their majority and will eventually end up as a minority government (like the Tories did in 1997). If that happens sooner rather than later, it will cause all sorts of problems, and will likely topple the government.

The Tories might luck out and the by-elections will be in safe seats so there's no risk of an upset.

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Honestly don't know much about the DUP, suspect I will soon be joining the large numbers of people googling ''DUP'', but from what I've seen so far, I don't expect I'll be feeling to positive towards them. This General Election was not a victory for Labour, but it was definitely a damn good show, and about as good or better than anticipated. All in all, a good day, particularly with May looking like a fool.

 

The two positives about the DUP are that 1) their urgent need for a soft border with the RoI means that a hard Brexit becomes much harder to carry out and 2) their highly questionable past involvement with terrorist atrocities means that no Conservative MP, minister or supporter ever gets to accuse Jeremy Corbyn of anything to do with terrorist sympathies ever again without looking like a monumental bellend.

Otherwise it's a total shitstorm. The DUP are really the only UK party who even bear a passing resemblance to the GOP's tea party. They're anti-abortion, anti-gay rights, climate change-denying fucktards, and more than a few Conservative MPs are clearly outright revolted at the idea of getting into bed with them. That's why there won't be a formal coalition.

[Werthead]

8 minutes ago, Leap said:

Ugh. Well, that's pretty sickening. I suppose good news is soft Brexit. I strongly hope and semi-believe that DUP's social conservatism will not leak into law.

It won't. If nothing else, the Conservative Party mainstream is not socially regressive in that way, at all. For all it gets compared to the Republicans, the Tories are really nothing like them whatsoever on social politics.

[mormont]

1 hour ago, Notone said:

Hum, was a desire for a period of relatively calm and turmoil free period a factor?

Possibly. Ironically, many senior figures in the SNP would ideally have wanted one too, but they found themselves in a corner after the Brexit vote. Previous pledges meant they had to reopen the referendum issue earlier than they wanted to. Now, as I said in the last thread, it'll be put on hold - but not scrapped altogether, I think.

32 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The DUP are really the only UK party who even bear a passing resemblance to the GOP's tea party. They're anti-abortion, anti-gay rights, climate change-denying fucktards, and more than a few Conservative MPs are clearly outright revolted at the idea of getting into bed with them. That's why there won't be a formal coalition.

All true except the last. If it were Tory MPs' revulsion that was the only issue, they'd be told to STFU and get on with it (and they would). 

The issue is that the DUP can't formally become part of the UK government without fucking the already-troubled NI peace settlement completely. Think about it. The UK government essentially has to act as a guarantor and supervisory authority over that agreement. How do you do that with the DUP attending Cabinet meetings? It's untenable.

[Zoë Sumra]

1 hour ago, mormont said:

All true except the last. If it were Tory MPs' revulsion that was the only issue, they'd be told to STFU and get on with it (and they would). 

The issue is that the DUP can't formally become part of the UK government without fucking the already-troubled NI peace settlement completely. Think about it. The UK government essentially has to act as a guarantor and supervisory authority over that agreement. How do you do that with the DUP attending Cabinet meetings? It's untenable.

Ah. Yes. Iiiiiiinteresting.  Thank you for that.  I've been wondering how the NHS privatisation push, for instance, is going to proceed with an anti-abortion party hanging on the Conservatives' tail...

[Maltaran]

1 hour ago, mormont said:

The issue is that the DUP can't formally become part of the UK government without fucking the already-troubled NI peace settlement completely. Think about it. The UK government essentially has to act as a guarantor and supervisory authority over that agreement. How do you do that with the DUP attending Cabinet meetings? It's untenable.

I saw someone on Twitter saying that Sinn Fein are claiming that it would be against the Good Friday Agreement to allow the DUP into government