denstorebog Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Ladies and gentlemen, 48 hours until the Georgia race. This is going to be decisive in grassroots enthusiasm and donations for months to come. Seems like everyone agrees that it is impossible to call because of a number of pretty crazy circumstances, including huge budgets, Trump, as well as this week's shooting. A week ago I thought it looked in the bag for Ossoff, since he seemed ahead in all the measurable statistics, and probably has the 'invisible' advantage in terms of voter enthusiasm and insane funding for turnout. But now I'm not so sure anymore. Early Republican turnout has been high, and Ossoff still needs to get young voters to come out of their shells to stand any chance. Your predictions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Pepper Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 No way Ossof wins. No amount of enthusiasm will transfer to votes cast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 48 minutes ago, denstorebog said: Ladies and gentlemen, 48 hours until the Georgia race. This is going to be decisive in grassroots enthusiasm and donations for months to come. Can we stop hyping up off-year and/or special elections? Sure, they may help inform the strategy of party organizations, but insofar as there is any empirical relationship between them and presidential or even midterm cycles they mean jack diddly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denstorebog Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Just now, dmc515 said: Can we stop hyping up off-year and/or special elections? Shit, sorry, didn't know it was gonna make your special place itch. Of course this particular race matters, even if off-year elections might normally not. If you don't believe the commentators or the parties shoveling insane amounts of money into this, at least consider the basic psychological effect of seeing how activism can translate into a win during a time when half of America fears the rise of an authoritarian party. And how important that effect is going to be over the next months when there's no other real opportunities for political gains for the Democrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 2 hours ago, denstorebog said: Shit, sorry, didn't know it was gonna make your special place itch. I wouldn't call it a pet peeve of mine, I just find it silly. 2 hours ago, denstorebog said: If you don't believe the commentators or the parties shoveling insane amounts of money into this, at least consider the basic psychological effect of seeing how activism can translate into a win during a time when half of America fears the rise of an authoritarian party. I don't know how to measure a "psychological effect." Don't get me wrong, I think that is an important aspect that's almost impossible to quantify, but even if you could I have serious doubts that there'd be any relationship between this election and the 2018 midterms. Even If such an effect does exist - in this case - it's primarily among party activists. And if they're not already primed to take on the current regime and maintain such enthusiasm until the deal's done, they should seek other employment. 2 hours ago, denstorebog said: And how important that effect is going to be over the next months when there's no other real opportunities for political gains for the Democrats. How in the hell is one seat going to have any type of effect over the course of the country "in the next months"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BloodRider Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 On 6/15/2017 at 4:18 PM, WinterFox said: I disagree totally. They keep voting into power madmen who rant and rave against healthcare, that tells me that they don't want it. Pick a new issue, Democrats. Personally I'd like our national attention to turn to prison reform and infrastructure improvement. Por que no los dos. Unlike Republicans maybe they can do more than one thing at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BloodRider Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 On 6/15/2017 at 5:21 PM, Cas Stark said: Seventeen years after the Year 2000 bug came and went, the federal government will finally stop preparing for it. https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-06-15/trump-orders-government-to-stop-work-on-y2k-bug-17-years-later It's things like this that cause people like me to be skeptical of the U.S. federal government's ability to do anything efficiently. Yes - cherry picking will confirm biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denstorebog Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 2 hours ago, dmc515 said: How in the hell is one seat going to have any type of effect over the course of the country "in the next months"? Not politically, financially. You can bet a lot of the people who regularly donate 20-40 dollars to the Democratic campaigns that are currently gearing up for 2018 will stop doing so over the summer if Ossoff loses after taking in 25 million. You're right that there's no way to ever measure whether a pause in the flood of donations will tip any scales in the long run, but if you generally agree that money paves the way to Congress, it should be easy to see why Ossoff's result will probably have immense importance in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcbigski Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 8 hours ago, dmc515 said: Nikos Giannopoulos crushes presidential photo ops. That's awesome. "The issue with being openly queer is our existence is constantly politicized,” he said. “They never stop to think: Oh, maybe that’s just who I am.” - said Nikos. I find it ironic that the Brave Resistance is trying to politicize this as some sort of act of defiance, considering his own words. He asked POTUS if he minded the fan and Trump amiably went along by his account. The WaPo article wasn't anywhere near as breathless as the post on HuffPo that I saw originally at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manhole Eunuchsbane Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 1 hour ago, mcbigski said: "The issue with being openly queer is our existence is constantly politicized,” he said. “They never stop to think: Oh, maybe that’s just who I am.” - said Nikos. I find it ironic that the Brave Resistance is trying to politicize this as some sort of act of defiance, considering his own words. He asked POTUS if he minded the fan and Trump amiably went along by his account. The WaPo article wasn't anywhere near as breathless as the post on HuffPo that I saw originally at least. Yeah, these seem to have a similar feel to the Kirby Jenner parody photoshops, in which a guy photshops himself into various Kendall Jenner photos to pass himself off as a Kardashian. https://www.someecards.com/news/so-that-happened/kirby-jenner-kendall-photoshop-instagram/ That said, when the primary object of your photoshopping is the president of the United States, it stands to reason that there might be a political message to be had in there somewhere. I don't think that's an unfair assumption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denstorebog Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 This ad just aired for Karen Handel: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldGimletEye Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Just now, denstorebog said: This ad just aired for Karen Handel: Oh, didn't somebody just mention something about people playing hardball with conservatives or being mean to them? I don't endorse any type of violence by either side. And never will. On the other hand, I don't feel on bit bad about giving conservatives a whole ton of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Pepper Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 2 hours ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said: Yeah, these seem to have a similar feel to the Kirby Jenner parody photoshops, in which a guy photshops himself into various Kendall Jenner photos to pass himself off as a Kardashian. https://www.someecards.com/news/so-that-happened/kirby-jenner-kendall-photoshop-instagram/ That said, when the primary object of your photoshopping is the president of the United States, it stands to reason that there might be a political message to be had in there somewhere. I don't think that's an unfair assumption. It wasn't photoshopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sivin Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 10 hours ago, Red Tiger said: I know that is meant as a joke to Hillary losing because she didn't have a penis, but I truly believe that other factors had far more influence on her loss. She was pretty old and we all know how America looks at older women She wasn't nearly as energetic and charismatic as Obama and she was gonna be compared to him, subconsciously or otherwise She didn't hold as many rallies as Obama did, which meant that not as many people saw her in real life, which is important in battleground states And off course the controversies (whether true or false) surrounding her I wasn't joking. Americans want a Daddy, the amount of sexist sloganeering thrown at her by the right makes that clear. 'Trump that Bitch', 'He has BALLS', etc... weren't focusing on her age or charisma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Tiger Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 1 hour ago, WinterFox said: I wasn't joking. Americans want a Daddy, the amount of sexist sloganeering thrown at her by the right makes that clear. 'Trump that Bitch', 'He has BALLS', etc... weren't focusing on her age or charisma. That came from a vocal minority. Please keep in mind that she still got more votes than Trump. On another topic, can somebody explain to me why Joe Manchin is still a democrat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Just now, Red Tiger said: That came from a vocal minority. Please keep in mind that she still got more votes than Trump. On another topic, can somebody explain to me why Joe Manchin is still a democrat? Manchin is a Democrat because he's far more liberal than most of West Virginia at this point in time, and he had something of a history with them. He's also one of the most reliable people to vote against Trump despite where he comes from. The notion that he should be doing basically anything different is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The guy from the Vale Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, Red Tiger said: That came from a vocal minority. Please keep in mind that she still got more votes than Trump. On another topic, can somebody explain to me why Joe Manchin is still a democrat? ...He's a West Virginia Democrat. Which is a pretty red state. Having a conservative Democrat from WV instead of a Tea Party Wingnut may well be the best the Dems can hope for, and I think it'd be foolish to try to get somebody further left from there. 538 estimates that a senator from WV would vote with Trump around 95 % of the time. Manchin voting that way only 50% of the time is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Altherion Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 1 hour ago, WinterFox said: I wasn't joking. Americans want a Daddy, the amount of sexist sloganeering thrown at her by the right makes that clear. 'Trump that Bitch', 'He has BALLS', etc... weren't focusing on her age or charisma. I have not heard the second one before so I don't think it got a great deal of traction. The first one was indeed widespread, but the sexism there is secondary: it worked well mainly because it a good pun and good puns usually make good slogans (they're quite popular in the history of American presidential campaigns). 10 hours ago, denstorebog said: Ladies and gentlemen, 48 hours until the Georgia race. This is an interesting test of the efficacy of cash in today's political environment. The amount of money dumped into it is easily twice as much as an average campaign for a Senate seat, never mind a House seat (which this is). Also, while the spending looks roughly equal, the nature of it is quite different. Spending in favor of Ossoff is mainly from his own campaign: he raised more than 5 times as much money as Handel (mostly from people who will not be his constituents should he win). Handel's war chest is much more typical of House candidates, but there are several Republican groups who are spending money on her behalf and thus bringing the total Republican spending in line with its Democratic counterpart. It will be interesting to see which strategy is more effective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Week Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 17 minutes ago, Altherion said: I have not heard the second one before so I don't think it got a great deal of traction. The first one was indeed widespread, but the sexism there is secondary: it worked well mainly because it a good pun and good puns usually make good slogans (they're quite popular in the history of American presidential campaigns). "Trump that Bitch" truly is the "I like Ike" of the new millennium. The misogyny is primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manhole Eunuchsbane Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 2 hours ago, Dr. Pepper said: It wasn't photoshopped. Oh shit, my bad. I ran out of free Washington Post stories and assumed these were shopped. Apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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