U.S. Politics: A Democracy In Decay

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

Just now, Week said:

So, no need for a CBO score (or score/analysis from any thinktank on the Right or Left) ... 

Yeah, I thought the original plan was to wait for the CBO score. I'm not sure if that's been scrapped or not. I think they were saying the CBO score typically takes about a week, so if they finish the bill and start circulating it by the end of this week, I suppose they could bring it to the floor after the CBO score next week.

[Maithanet]

4 minutes ago, Week said:

So, no need for a CBO score (or score/analysis from any thinktank on the Right or Left) ... 

The text of the bill is supposed to be available on Thursday, and the CBO is being rushed to get out their estimate by Monday or Tuesday.  Supposedly the bill is similar enough to the House Bill that getting the revised CBO score out in just a few days is possible. 

Obviously McConnell et al think the public reaction and the CBO score are not going to help this bill get passed, so compressing the timeline as much as possible is essential. 

[Week]

5 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

Yeah, I thought the original plan was to wait for the CBO score. I'm not sure if that's been scrapped or not. I think they were saying the CBO score typically takes about a week, so if they finish the bill and start circulating it by the end of this week, I suppose they could bring it to the floor after the CBO score next week.

 

3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The text of the bill is supposed to be available on Thursday, and the CBO is being rushed to get out their estimate by Monday or Tuesday.  Supposedly the bill is similar enough to the House Bill that getting the revised CBO score out in just a few days is possible. 

Obviously McConnell et al think the public reaction and the CBO score are not going to help this bill get passed, so compressing the timeline as much as possible is essential. 

Thanks -- I was not sure the CBO would be able to turn something around quickly enough. I hope they are able to.

Do you guys expect that McConnell's goal is to actually pass something or force a failed vote? Or something like 30/70 odds -- Pass/FV?

 

ETA- Spicey is back! He looks a bit tubby (right Steve Bannon?).

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

1 minute ago, Week said:

Thanks -- I was not sure the CBO would be able to turn something around quickly enough. I hope they are able to.

Do you guys expect that McConnell's goal is to actually pass something or force a failed vote? Or something like 30/70 odds -- Pass/FV?

That's the big question everyone seems to be posing at this point. Hopefully this is just a "look. we tried" sort of an effort, but I'm inclined to expect the worst. McConnell has tied so much of his career to being an Obama foil that I have to believe he's going to go full bore on this.

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

That's the big question everyone seems to be posing at this point. Hopefully this is just a "look. we tried" sort of an effort, but I'm inclined to expect the worst. McConnell has tied so much of his career to being an Obama foil that I have to believe he's going to go full bore on this.

I think it's gonna pass.  If it were going to fail, I don't think it would look like this, I expect instead it would just stay in committee, and then die a quiet death where everyone says "we couldn't get the votes to meet all of our goals on health care of reducing premiums, cutting taxes, etc.  Vote more Republicans in the Senate and we'll have health care in 2019!"  That scenario would be a setback for McConnell, but only a minor one.  If he could follow up it with a successful tax cut bill (which he can find the votes for), then all would be forgiven.

But to vote on it and fail looks really bad.  It is looking more and more like this is coming up onto the floor, and if it does, expect it to pass. 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

I think it's gonna pass.  If it were going to fail, I don't think it would look like this, I expect instead it would just stay in committee, and then die a quiet death where everyone says "we couldn't get the votes to meet all of our goals on health care of reducing premiums, cutting taxes, etc.  Vote more Republicans in the Senate and we'll have health care in 2019!"  That scenario would be a setback for McConnell, but only a minor one.  If he could follow up it with a successful tax cut bill (which he can find the votes for), then all would be forgiven.

But to vote on it and fail looks really bad.  It is looking more and more like this is coming up onto the floor, and if it does, expect it to pass. 

Yeah, I have to agree. This doesn't look good.

[OldGimletEye]

Wuuuut? Nobody's got any faith in the "Republican Moderates" to do the right thing here?

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

3 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

Wuuuut? Nobody's got any faith in the "Republican Moderates" to do the right thing here?

Yeah, no. Say what you want about McConnell, but this guy is no Paul Ryan. If he wants to ram this through, he's going to get it done.

[OldGimletEye]

1 minute ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

Yeah, no. Say what you want about McConnell, but this guy is no Paul Ryan. If he wants to ram this through, he's going to get it done.

I know. I agree with your assessment of the situation. I was being facetious here.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

Just now, OldGimletEye said:

I know. I agree with your assessment of the situation. I was being facetious here.

I caught that.  Sarcasm is kind of my default setting.

[OldGimletEye]

1 minute ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

I caught that.  Sarcasm is kind of my default setting.

LOL.

I've always had a soft spot for smart asses.

[Fez]

I honestly have no idea what will happen. But I will see say there is no guarantee that the vote will actually happen. McConnell is saying it will as a way to pressure his caucus into going along with it; but if there's enough pushback after the text is put out, there's a real good chance the vote gets cancelled in the end and McConnell tries to move to something else.

[Maithanet]

10 minutes ago, Fez said:

I honestly have no idea what will happen. But I will see say there is no guarantee that the vote will actually happen. McConnell is saying it will as a way to pressure his caucus into going along with it; but if there's enough pushback after the text is put out, there's a real good chance the vote gets cancelled in the end and McConnell tries to move to something else.

That's definitely still a possibility.  That's why I'm not 100% that this is going to pass, becuase if it actually comes up for vote, I would give it at least 95%.  A few weeks ago I thought this bill would die a quiet death, but now I'd give it 2 to 1 that it's gonna get through the Senate (and if it gets that far, I'll be pretty surprised if it doesn't become law). 

[DMC]

35 minutes ago, Fez said:

I honestly have no idea what will happen. But I will see say there is no guarantee that the vote will actually happen. McConnell is saying it will as a way to pressure his caucus into going along with it; but if there's enough pushback after the text is put out, there's a real good chance the vote gets cancelled in the end and McConnell tries to move to something else.

Yeah McConnell will not let it go to a vote if it isn't going to pass.  I think Paul and Collins are very likely to be nay votes, at least based on what's being reported, so he's counting on everyone else falling in line.  We'll see.

[Maithanet]

3 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

Yeah McConnell will not let it go to a vote if it isn't going to pass.  I think Paul and Collins are very likely to be nay votes, at least based on what's being reported, so he's counting on everyone else falling in line.  We'll see.

I've read that too, and I would have expected the last holdouts to be Collins and Murkowski.  Paul has always been a pushover on votes that actually matter.  If this goes down because of 3-4 senators and Paul is one of them, I'll be very surprised. 

[Fez]

6 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I've read that too, and I would have expected the last holdouts to be Collins and Murkowski.  Paul has always been a pushover on votes that actually matter.  If this goes down because of 3-4 senators and Paul is one of them, I'll be very surprised. 

Agreed. If the bill fails, I'm pretty sure it'll because of moderate opposition; not conservative. Problem is, most of the moderates are doing their usual thing of complaining without actually acting. But it could be they are just waiting to see the bill and may do something then. 

One name not being mentioned that should be is Sullivan. He's much more conservative than Murkowski, but he's surely aware that unless there's some special provision in the senate bill its going to screw over Alaska in all sorts of ways far beyond what any other state will experience.

[Starkess]

I mean, surely they're all aware that this bill (what is known of it) is widely hated, does absolutely nothing to help any of their states or constituents, and is basically a giant finger to any sort of responsible governing. They will vote for it anyway because--spite? Money? The tears of the poor are their preferred lube?

[Maithanet]

19 minutes ago, Starkess said:

I mean, surely they're all aware that this bill (what is known of it) is widely hated, does absolutely nothing to help any of their states or constituents, and is basically a giant finger to any sort of responsible governing. They will vote for it anyway because--spite? Money? The tears of the poor are their preferred lube?

My partisan blinders make it very difficult for me to understand either.  I get why some people would hate Obamacare - it imperfectly solves some of the problems of the American Health Care system, fails to solve others, and is very disruptive and cumbersome to boot.  But Trumpcare is just an astonishingly bad solution to either the problems remaining in the Health Care system (spiraling costs, rampant waste) or the problems of Obamacare (limited choices, poorly structured incentives).  It is hard for me to believe that even a majority of Republicans (citizens, not Senators) will actually support this bill once they figure out what is in it.  Let alone the rest of the country, who by and large already hate it. 

[lokisnow]

27 minutes ago, Starkess said:

I mean, surely they're all aware that this bill (what is known of it) is widely hated, does absolutely nothing to help any of their states or constituents, and is basically a giant finger to any sort of responsible governing. They will vote for it anyway because--spite? Money? The tears of the poor are their preferred lube?

Politicians strive to keep the promises they made and they have all individually promised (thousands of times they have each individually made this promise!) that they would vote for this bill.

of course it is going to happen they want to keep the promise that got them elected 

[Kalbear]

42 minutes ago, Starkess said:

I mean, surely they're all aware that this bill (what is known of it) is widely hated, does absolutely nothing to help any of their states or constituents, and is basically a giant finger to any sort of responsible governing. They will vote for it anyway because--spite? Money? The tears of the poor are their preferred lube?

For the House, it's because of the promises they made.

For the Senate, it's because they can get big tax breaks as a result of this which define the US economy for the next 10-15 years, are not particularly worried about losing their seats (like McConnell is going to get beaten by a Democrat in Kentucky), and only care about being conservative enough. 

Republicans are acting as if what they vote on and how they act does not matter in the least provided they are partisan. They are probably not wrong.