U.S. Politics: A Democracy In Decay

[lokisnow]

1 hour ago, ding-fries-are-done said:

I don't see the logic behind this statement when considering that the Democrats have lost just about all special elections since Trump won the Presidency.  The poster might be trying to justify this statement by claiming that the Democrats got more votes than the last elections but they still lost.  It's like claiming the Dallas Cowboys only lost to the Packers by 3 points instead of 10 points the last time the two teams played against each other but a loss is a loss.  In other words the poster is trying to claim a win when in reality there wasn't a win.

The logic is simple. The person saying it thinks Turner Gill is a great football coach. Because losing by less (or sometimes losing by more!) is totally the best!

 

I have reiterated multiple times that politics is a (deadly serious) team sport.

This right side of this five thirty eight graphic is a drive chart.

https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2017/06/dottle-liveblog-specialelections-11.png?w=1150

Democrats have gotten turnovers four times and have failed to convert to points every time. That means that they are losing. In particular, with GA they recovered the ball on the 1 yard line and then spent three timeouts announcing they were going to run the ball up the middle then were surprised at how easily republicans defended against this strategy. Nevertheless, they didn't change their strategy. With the other three races, democrat coaching staff recovered turnovers, made huge gains, then opted to take a knee rather than try to score a touchdown because it was safer and they probably couldn't score anyway, so why even attempt it, getting to the two yard line is a moral victory and virtually the same as getting a touchdown, after all.

the graphic "how the margins compare" on the right side at the top of this link shows the drive charts for last night's updated elections. Democrats failed to convert on valuable turnovers.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/georgia-south-carolina-special-elections/

the entire democrat coaching staff and management needs to be completely replaced.

[DMC]

6 minutes ago, The Brandon Stark said:

It's so embarrassing that that we have all three branches of government and a super majority in the House come 2018. Sorry, its the Democrats that are an embarrassment. Nothing but identity politics, no message and no wins. But sure, the GOP is the embarrassment.

Why would a supermajority in the House matter in any way?  At least Democrats understand government 101.

[Inigima]

1 minute ago, dmc515 said:

Why would a supermajority in the House matter in any way?  At least Democrats understand government 101.

Which is not very helpful when you don't have any control over it!

[OldGimletEye]

3 hours ago, The Brandon Stark said:

It's so embarrassing that that we have all three branches of government and a super majority in the House come 2018. Sorry, its the Democrats that are an embarrassment. Nothing but identity politics, no message and no wins. But sure, the GOP is the embarrassment.

Oh yes, please tell me all about it. Give us some more dubious statistics to tell us about that awesome Republican message.
Please, tell me what the Republican message is:
Is it something like, “if you cut taxes for the rich...” watch the economy boom just like it did under Reagan. Now why on Earth would I not buy this?
Or is it something like, watch Trump make America great again by fixing our trade defecits, when the reality is, much of it has to do with the US being the world's banker essentially.
Don't forget
EX- IM = S – I conservative sorts of people.

Is it "Were the Party Of Business!!!!"?

Or is it something like, were conservatives!!! we are awesome at this foreign policy stuff! Well except Dubya's bungled handling of Iraq. And then you got Trump basically destroying the liberal international order the US and it's allies attempted to establish after WW2. Hello 19th Century foreign policy.
And as far as identity politics, the best practitioners of that is the Repubican Party which practices white nationalism. It's just mad because it doesn't want somebody else cuttin' in on its action. But, you know, more seriously, there are serious issues of race and gender in this country and the Republican Party just refuses to engage. Probably cause it's not capable of doing anything else than passing tax cuts for the rich.

Yep, the GOP is an embarrassment.

And just what the fuck is it's message besides tax cuts and nonsense?

[Week]

9 minutes ago, The Brandon Stark said:

It's so embarrassing that that we have all three branches of government and a super majority in the House come 2018. Sorry, its the Democrats that are an embarrassment. Nothing but identity politics, no message and no wins. But sure, the GOP is the embarrassment.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump

 

/Prosecution: I rest my case.

[Fez]

5 minutes ago, lokisnow said:

The logic is simple. The person saying it thinks Turner Gill is a great football coach. Because losing by less (or sometimes losing by more!) is totally the best!

Turner Gill was a great football coach. The turnaround he led at Buffalo was remarkable and was due to his skill at recruiting and coaching mid-major level talent. He just should've stayed there instead of trying for something more visible.

 

Anyway, the only Democratic loss in 2017 that would really concern is the Virginia governor's race in November (losing New Jersey would be even more of a disaster, but basically unthinkable right now). And that's the part that's getting ignored about 2018. Everyone is focusing on Congress, which is important, but Democrats are poised to potentially win a large number of governors' races next year; which is so important on two levels. First, states really do have incredible power over what happens in their state, and second, it would give Democrats a much greater say in the 2020 redistricting than they had in 2010.

[Dr. Pepper]

39 minutes ago, Red Tiger said:

Im starting to wonder if House of Cards is set in an alternate reality where the Civil war never happened. It's not just that Frank is a Dem from SC, but who would VOTE to make a dem from SC president? I know it went to congress, but he should not have even been able to do that.

Why?  Southern Democrats might be a dying breed, but they are still very much a thing.  Even really conservative ones.  Louisiana, Virginia, North Carolina and West Virginia all have Dem governors.  It wasn't too long ago that several other southern states had dem governors as well.  Bill Clinton came out of Arkansas.  

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

30 minutes ago, Week said:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump

 

/Prosecution: I rest my case.

Obstruction doesn't work! Except when it does, for like the past 6 years or so. SAD!

[Red Tiger]

1 hour ago, Dr. Pepper said:

Why?  Southern Democrats might be a dying breed, but they are still very much a thing.  Even really conservative ones.  Louisiana, Virginia, North Carolina and West Virginia all have Dem governors.  It wasn't too long ago that several other southern states had dem governors as well.  Bill Clinton came out of Arkansas.  

Yeah, but House of Cards is from what 2012 to now? Clinton was 20 years ago, when Tenneseee and Louisiana were still willing to vote for a democratic president.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 hour ago, Red Tiger said:

Im starting to wonder if House of Cards is set in an alternate reality where the Civil war never happened. It's not just that Frank is a Dem from SC, but who would VOTE to make a dem from SC president? I know it went to congress, but he should not have even been able to do that.

His accent is all wrong for Gaffney.  Andi McDowell (from Groundhog day) is from Gaffney and has a typical accent for that part of South Carolina.  The accent that Frank Underwood puts on is very Charlestonian.  Knowing that it is like fingernails on a chalkboard and sounds completely wrong.

[OldGimletEye]

The Republican Party's message:
1. White (mostly male) nationalism.
2. Supply side economics.
3. 19th Century or neocon foreign policy.
It sure is a good one!!!!

[lokisnow]

38 minutes ago, Fez said:

Turner Gill was a great football coach.

@Kalbear

see. Veep is a true reflection of washington dc.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

Have to agree with lokisnow here. There's no way to spin these losses as positives in the face of what has to be the most incompetent Presidency this country has ever seen. At least a few of these should've been wins.

[lokisnow]

yes. This is the big league. You have to win.

[Fez]

8 minutes ago, lokisnow said:

@Kalbear

see. Veep is a true reflection of washington dc.

Context is important. Both in reading posts and in interpreting election results.

You're providing a pretty amazing illustration of what happens when you don't.

[Red Tiger]

1 hour ago, OldGimletEye said:

The Republican Party's message:
1. White (mostly male) nationalism.
2. Supply side economics.
3. 19th Century or neocon foreign policy.
It sure is a good one!!!!

It's a simple one. People want simple things.

Yeah, it's fucking sad, but im convinced that's the reason they like it.

[DMC]

1 hour ago, lokisnow said:

I have reiterated multiple times that politics is a (deadly serious) team sport.

It's interesting you use sports as an analogy.  Most major sports (well, I mainly follow baseball, basketball, and football) now rely on analytics that take things like point differential and strength of schedule into account when evaluating teams, players, etc.  This is precisely the type of argument you are ridiculing.  Apparently you should hang out with angry Goose Gossage:

Quote

"The game is becoming a freaking joke because of the nerds who are running it," he said. "I'll tell you what has happened, these guys played rotisserie baseball at Harvard or wherever the f— they went, and they thought they figured the f—ing game out. They don't know s—. A bunch of f—ing nerds running the game."

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

15 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

Have to agree with lokisnow here. There's no way to spin these losses as positives in the face of what has to be the most incompetent Presidency this country has ever seen. At least a few of these should've been wins.

Not really. Look at the margins in 2016 and then compare them to now. They all shrunk, some by rather large numbers. Now obviously a lack of an incumbent will play into that, but it's still a positive sign so see the margins shrink. 

Georgia 6th:

61.6-38.4 in 2016

52-48 in 2017

Kansas 4th:

60.7-29.6 in 2016

52.5-45.7 in 2017

Montana at large:

56.2-40.6 in 2016

50-44.4 in 2017

South Carolina 5th:

59./-38.7 in 2016

51-48 in 2017

Also, ask yourself these questions. What would change if a Dem won any of these? Winning them is symbolic at best. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

10 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Not really. Look at the margins in 2016 and then compare them to now. They all shrunk, some by rather large numbers. Now obviously a lack of an incumbent will play into that, but it's still a positive sign so see the margins shrink. 

Georgia 6th:

61.6-38.4 in 2016

52-48 in 2017

Kansas 4th:

60.7-29.6 in 2016

52.5-45.7 in 2017

Montana at large:

56.2-40.6 in 2016

50-44.4 in 2017

South Carolina 5th:

59./-38.7 in 2016

51-48 in 2017

Also, ask yourself these questions. What would change if a Dem won any of these? Winning them is symbolic at best. 

If they win... it shows that Democrats can win in difficult districts. 

[Week]

8 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Not really. Look at the margins in 2016 and then compare them to now. They all shrunk, some by rather large numbers. Now obviously a lack of an incumbent will play into that, but it's still a positive sign so see the margins shrink. 

Georgia 6th:

61.6-38.4 in 2016

52-48 in 2017

Kansas 4th:

60.7-29.6 in 2016

52.5-45.7 in 2017

Montana at large:

56.2-40.6 in 2016

50-44.4 in 2017

South Carolina 5th:

59./-38.7 in 2016

51-48 in 2017

Also, ask yourself these questions. What would change if a Dem won any of these? Winning them is symbolic at best. 

Some charts per Vox that make the same argument.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/21/15842084/democrat-special-election-margin-charts

Let's hope these wins lead to GOP overconfidence in 2018 - democrats need to keep pushing get out the vote efforts and showing how the elected officials in these races will truly impact their day-to-day. AHCA will impact everyone in the US -- with profoundly negative outcomes for millions.