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What will happen to Stannis in TWOW?


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3 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

But Stannis doesn't have blind faith in prophecies or religion. At all. He knows Mel has powers, and he decides to use that but he's not a true believer. 

He may not believe it deeply (yet), but he constantly reacts on them. Killing his own brother with the magic of Melissandre. Letting Melissandre kill all the people on Dragonstone. Trying to burn his nephew due to the words of Melissandre. Marching at the Wall because of Melisandres Visions. Even if he does not believe it, he acts and reacts on them. And even if he does all of that for his own interests, the path of the Red Woman will be his doom, I believe.

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Just now, Dragonsbone said:

He may not believe it deeply (yet), but he constantly reacts on them. Killing his own brother with the magic of Melissandre. Letting Melissandre kill all the people on Dragonstone. Trying to burn his nephew due to the words of Melissandre. Marching at the Wall because of Melisandres Visions. Even if he does not believe it, he acts and reacts on them. And even if he does all of that for his own interests, the path of the Red Woman will be his doom, I believe.

Who are all the people Mel killed at Dragonstone? As to Edric, yes, he may have gone through w/ it, we don't know. And he went to the Wall because of what Davos said to him, not Mel and her visions. 

 

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2 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Who are all the people Mel killed at Dragonstone? As to Edric, yes, he may have gone through w/ it, we don't know. And he went to the Wall because of what Davos said to him, not Mel and her visions. 

 

I do not disagree with you regarding his motivations. I also do not neccesarily believe that he believes what Mel believes. I have just a strong feeling that the path he has chosen, will be his downfall. Wheather he believes it or not, he acts indirectly to the will of Mel. And this will be his downfall.

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Just now, Dragonsbone said:

I do not disagree with you regarding his motivations. I also do not neccesarily believe that he believes what Mel believes. I have just a strong feeling that the path he has chosen, will be his downfall. Wheather he believes it or not, he acts indirectly to the will of Mel. And this will be his downfall.

Sure. But that's true for everyone. Choices and decisions have consequences. 

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2 hours ago, Dragonsbone said:

He may not believe it deeply (yet), but he constantly reacts on them. Killing his own brother with the magic of Melissandre. Letting Melissandre kill all the people on Dragonstone. Trying to burn his nephew due to the words of Melissandre. Marching at the Wall because of Melisandres Visions. Even if he does not believe it, he acts and reacts on them. And even if he does all of that for his own interests, the path of the Red Woman will be his doom, I believe.

I actually agree with you that trusting in Melisandre will eventually destroy him, but dying at Winterfell isn't that. He's not marching against Roose because R'hllor wills it or because Melisandre saw it in the flames, he's doing it for clear, strategic reasons that could be entirely divorced from Melisandre - the Others are coming, he wants to fight them, he needs the North to do that. The one thing she is (unintentionally) misleading him with is his status as Azor Ahai. She's made him think that is it up to him and him alone to lead the fight against the Others, and he's the sort of person to never surrender and to take any measure he thinks necessary to win that fight, which is what I imagine will inevitably destroy him, not a mundane fight against a mundane enemy. 

But the bolded makes it sound like you're more informed by the show than the books. The only people burned on Dragonstone were Sunglass, who broke the feudal contract, the Rambtons, who attacked Stannis' men, and Alester Florent, who wanted to use his position as Hand to force a secret surrender. Whether or not you think any of those punishments were justified, all of them were punished for clear legal reasons, not because Melisandre demanded it or said it was some sort of prophetic necessity. As to the Wall, she hadn't even identified the Wall as the place to be, it was Davos' argument that Stannis should defend his kingdom to prove himself king that made him sail north. In neither case was he muddled by prophecy or w/e.

It's also not a case of him slowly more dependent on her, either, given he was at his most trusting midway through ACOK ("her flames do not lie") but has since balanced that out with his usual scepticism ("the flames are full of tricks"). What is changing is the severity of his circumstances. In ASOS he could delay and delay over whether or not the risk of Melisandre being correct justified Edric's sacrifice because he wasn't faced with any immediate danger. When the Others invade, and if he's lost all hope of beating them through normal means, then he will feel forced to commit to her prophecy, and that would be his downfall. 

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Just now, The Drunkard said:

It's also not a case of him slowly more dependent on her, either, given he was at his most trusting midway through ACOK ("her flames do not lie") but has since balanced that out with his usual scepticism ("the flames are full of tricks"). What is changing is the severity of his circumstances. In ASOS he could delay and delay over whether or not the risk of Melisandre being correct justified Edric's sacrifice because he wasn't faced with any immediate danger. When the Others invade, and if he's lost all hope of beating them through normal means, then he will feel forced to commit to her prophecy, and that would be his downfall

I agree, and I'll add "no more burnings". As to the bold, I don't know... it makes perfect sense, except that for it to happen like that Mel would have to remain convinced that Stannis is AAR. And the truth is even her bloody flames have already shown her that her interpretation is off. So she has to continue to misinterpret what she sees for a good while longer, and I'm not sure that's what is going to happen. :dunno:

 

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4 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I agree, and I'll add "no more burnings". As to the bold, I don't know... it makes perfect sense, except that for it to happen like that Mel would have to remain convinced that Stannis is AAR. And the truth is even her bloody flames have already shown her that her interpretation is off. So she has to continue to misinterpret what she sees for a good while longer, and I'm not sure that's what is going to happen. :dunno:

I think it will. The nature of her visions makes it hard to disprove what she already believes, as they never seem to give clear answers and require her to try to fit a narrative to what she's seeing, which allows for her own confirmation bias to slip in. And if Stannis wins at Winterfell and becomes more focused on the Wall and its defense, he'll probably appear in the flames with even greater frequency simply because he's involved in the events she's focusing on. If he makes a show of being Azor Ahai while doing it, and that's what she sees, it'd be natural for her to keep believing it. If she also sees visions of Jon, she could easily write them off as R'hllor showing her someone important to Azor Ahai. 

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Just now, The Drunkard said:

I think it will. The nature of her visions makes it hard to disprove what she already believes, as they never seem to give clear answers and require her to try to fit a narrative to what she's seeing, which allows for her own confirmation bias to slip in. And if Stannis wins at Winterfell and becomes more focused on the Wall and its defense, he'll probably appear in the flames with even greater frequency simply because he's involved in the events she's focusing on. If he makes a show of being Azor Ahai while doing it, and that's what she sees, it'd be natural for her to keep believing it. If she also sees visions of Jon, she could easily write them off as R'hllor showing her someone important to Azor Ahai. 

Yeah, could be. But that's kind of making her really bad at flame reading. B/c she also saw Bran and BR - we don't know yet whether they are trying to communicate or if it's just random visions from Red Rahloo. But in her chapter, while trying to find the "girl in grey", she sees Bran as a boy w/ the head of a wolf and then Jon as a man, a wolf, and a man again. She knows Starks = direwolves... so, for her to continue misreading and misinterpreting everything might feel a bit forced? Of course, it all depends on what kinds of visions she'll have in TWoW.

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1 hour ago, The Drunkard said:

I actually agree with you that trusting in Melisandre will eventually destroy him, but dying at Winterfell isn't that. He's not marching against Roose because R'hllor wills it or because Melisandre saw it in the flames, he's doing it for clear, strategic reasons that could be entirely divorced from Melisandre - the Others are coming, he wants to fight them, he needs the North to do that. The one thing she is (unintentionally) misleading him with is his status as Azor Ahai. She's made him think that is it up to him and him alone to lead the fight against the Others, and he's the sort of person to never surrender and to take any measure he thinks necessary to win that fight, which is what I imagine will inevitably destroy him, not a mundane fight against a mundane enemy. 

But the bolded makes it sound like you're more informed by the show than the books. The only people burned on Dragonstone were Sunglass, who broke the feudal contract, the Rambtons, who attacked Stannis' men, and Alester Florent, who wanted to use his position as Hand to force a secret surrender. Whether or not you think any of those punishments were justified, all of them were punished for clear legal reasons, not because Melisandre demanded it or said it was some sort of prophetic necessity. As to the Wall, she hadn't even identified the Wall as the place to be, it was Davos' argument that Stannis should defend his kingdom to prove himself king that made him sail north. In neither case was he muddled by prophecy or w/e.

It's also not a case of him slowly more dependent on her, either, given he was at his most trusting midway through ACOK ("her flames do not lie") but has since balanced that out with his usual scepticism ("the flames are full of tricks"). What is changing is the severity of his circumstances. In ASOS he could delay and delay over whether or not the risk of Melisandre being correct justified Edric's sacrifice because he wasn't faced with any immediate danger. When the Others invade, and if he's lost all hope of beating them through normal means, then he will feel forced to commit to her prophecy, and that would be his downfall. 

How do you come to that conclusion please?

Spoiler

Because certain things happend in the show that has not happend in the books yet?

 

I can not Change the nature of things regarding ASOIAF and GoT.

Spoiler

So if someone is the opinion that something might happen you will dismiss It because it happend in the Show? Cmon! Then the only arguements we might use are those that have not happend, which seems pretty silly. 

I have read the books and I am basing my arguements on the books. If you disagree with my arguements, it is fine. But don't take the "Show Card" as a weapon :P

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10 hours ago, Dragonsbone said:

But Stannis is no POV. Or do you mean through Theon or Asha? Davos is certainly way to far to return as soon. I do not expect him to return to Winterfell in Winds, even if Stannis wins the battle against the Boltons, which I am not as sure as others that he will. Right now we don't have a POV in Winterfell either. I don't think that that is a problem. 

Back on topic:

I think that Stannis will loose the battle against the Boltons. It fits with his character arch. I believe that GRRM wants an aticlimatic story for him. Everyone expects him to win. But what I think GRRM tries to achieve with this character is to show us, among other things,  where blind trust in prophecies or religion lead. He will be a bit fat red herring. It helps also to lead the book to a dark and hopeless place. 

Right, there are no POV characters near Winterfell who could enter WF without being flayed to death.  And I think it be absurd not to POV's in Winterfell in TWOW after all the loose threads Theon's chapters in ADWD left.  As far as Davos is concerned his chapters, like Bran's, cut off halfway through ADWD.  Which makes me think that we will get one or more Davos chapters in TWOW that take place before Jon's death and will alter the way we think about the conclusion of the story.  He may be at Hardhome and could return to the Wall shortly after Jon's stabbing and could be at Winterfell mid-TWOW if the story goes that way.  But that's neither here nor there.

I think Stannis will be undone by trust in prophecy, but being killed by the Bolton's doesn't fit that.  Stannis isn't attacking the Bolton's based on Mel's prophecies and he has developed a healthy dose of skepticism towards Mel's powers.  But I don't think that means he's lost faith in visions in the flames, he's simply started looking into the flames himself and trusts in his own abilities to interpret their meanings.

After all, what's the point of having an irreligious character with a fire worshipping zealot on his shoulder if your goal isn't to turn him into a madman.

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10 hours ago, Dragonsbone said:

He may not believe it deeply (yet), but he constantly reacts on them. Killing his own brother with the magic of Melissandre. Letting Melissandre kill all the people on Dragonstone. Trying to burn his nephew due to the words of Melissandre. Marching at the Wall because of Melisandres Visions. Even if he does not believe it, he acts and reacts on them. And even if he does all of that for his own interests, the path of the Red Woman will be his doom, I believe.

Aren't you arguing that Stannis is going to die at the Battle of Ice, when does he have time to start believing deeply? I'm confused.

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6 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I agree, and I'll add "no more burnings". As to the bold, I don't know... it makes perfect sense, except that for it to happen like that Mel would have to remain convinced that Stannis is AAR. And the truth is even her bloody flames have already shown her that her interpretation is off. So she has to continue to misinterpret what she sees for a good while longer, and I'm not sure that's what is going to happen. :dunno:

 

I don't think Mel and Stannis really need each other anymore.  Mel is likely to gravitate more towards Jon with his resurrection and the LoL showing her "only Snow."  And she feels more powerful on the Wall, she may be reluctant to leave, and she may also be the only POV in place to witness the events on the Wall.

Stannis, on the other hand, may already be staring into the fires for visions without Mel, and without any dogmatic commitment to the LoL.  If they do meet again mid-TWOW they probably won't be on the same page.

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7 hours ago, Dragonsbone said:

How do you come to that conclusion please?

  Hide contents

Because certain things happend in the show that has not happend in the books yet?

 

I can not Change the nature of things regarding ASOIAF and GoT.

  Hide contents

So if someone is the opinion that something might happen you will dismiss It because it happend in the Show? Cmon! Then the only arguements we might use are those that have not happend, which seems pretty silly. 

I have read the books and I am basing my arguements on the books. If you disagree with my arguements, it is fine. But don't take the "Show Card" as a weapon :P

I came to that conclusion because the things I bolded are things taken from the show and the middle paragraph in my post addresses how they are not accurate descriptions of what happened in ASOIAF. The rest of my post addresses your other points regarding Stannis and what I think is likely to bring him down. 

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6 hours ago, thehandwipes said:

Aren't you arguing that Stannis is going to die at the Battle of Ice, when does he have time to start believing deeply? I'm confused.

I think the battle of Ice won't be solved as quickly as people think. It won't be a giant battle right at the beginning and Stannis looses it. It will be more of a guerrilla war that the Boltons will aply on Stannis. They will let mainly the snow and georgraphy destroy his army bit by bit. His own Vietnam in snow if you will. This conditions may turn him into a zealot at some point. But to be honest, I am not sure whether he will turn into a religious Fanatic. I see him more of a insane man at the end, then a religious fanatic. 

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I think he dies during or just before the battle of Winterfell due to something Mel does. Maybe he actually burns?

Side note; I've noticed over the years of just really scratching the surface of this community that a bunch of people love Stannis (the mannis, fine). But I must admit I don't understand why. Again, I've only noticed it without exploring the depth behind it. 

Seems like a fine character. He's dedicated, uncompromising in his cause, oddly sardonic, and rigid yet aware of the realities of the world. At the same time he is brittle, self-righteous, and unwilling to be strategic, as well as totally cool with demon babies. Which makes him a pretty solid character living in the grey area we love so much about this story.

Enlighten me Stannis fans. Why do you back him?

 

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I don't really know why I love him so much. Could be his great one liners, the fact he smashed the wildlings when all hope for Jon seemed lost, that he's the only person who can now avenge the red wedding. Those are just my reasons anywho. 

 

Also I think that by the strict letter of the law he is the one true king of westeros so I've kind always felt a bit sorry for him that nobody recognises that. 

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15 hours ago, Dragonsbone said:

I think the battle of Ice won't be solved as quickly as people think. It won't be a giant battle right at the beginning and Stannis looses it. It will be more of a guerrilla war that the Boltons will aply on Stannis. They will let mainly the snow and georgraphy destroy his army bit by bit. His own Vietnam in snow if you will. This conditions may turn him into a zealot at some point. But to be honest, I am not sure whether he will turn into a religious Fanatic. I see him more of a insane man at the end, then a religious fanatic. 

Well, I hope you're wrong.  I need some resolution to the Winterfell storyline from ADWD and I can't see that happening without a POV who can walk into WF without getting flayed.

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1 hour ago, thehandwipes said:

Well, I hope you're wrong.  I need some resolution to the Winterfell storyline from ADWD and I can't see that happening without a POV who can walk into WF without getting flayed.

Therein lays or is that lies the problem. Stannis is usually portrayed in someones POV. If Stannis wins the battle of the crofters village most likely Asha will tell the story. If Stannis loses the battle at the crofter's village most likely Asha will tell the story.. According to the pink/bastard letter Ramsey is wanting his Reek back so that leaves Theon out. But then again, maybe Davos miraculously appears back at White Harbor and Manderly's men ferry him, Rickon, Shaggy Dog & Osha  up the White Knife.

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