Kitten of the Canals

What will happen to Stannis in TWOW?

184 posts in this topic

1 minute ago, The Sleeper said:

It's common sense really. If he got there first it would have been a coup. Now he has to capture one of the strongest castles in Westeros.

 

They are outnumbered, starving and even if they win they still have to take a fully garrisoned castle. Stannis doesn't have even a fraction of the force he would need to take Winterfell by force. 

In any case Winterfell is not his to dispose off. If Stannis manages to come out on top, it will because the northmen turn on Roose.

Yes. The Freys will be cut down by Stannis with the aid of northerners who are not loyal to Roose, thus removing the largest part of the opposing foot soldiers. Everybody inside Winterfell knows Arya is a fake and that Ramsay is sadistic, including the talk he is a kinslayer. THere doesn't seem to be much respect for him in that department because he broke a law of the gods. The other lords are there for some personal reasons, most because they all had someone killed at the Red Wedding. Another broken godly law, which both can be used as reasoning for a political maneuver. I don't think it is a stretch in speculation to think there will be many who turn on Roose. 

Stannis wants Nightfort, if not the throne, and I don't think he will stay at Winterfell long, especially since there are other living Starks. He may die soon anyway, but not until these other events happen first. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

My one nagging doubt is an offhand line by the voice of truth in this story. A thought by Jon, in Dance. Jon, whose strategic advice saved Stannis from disaster at the Dreadfort. The line goes as follows:

Even ruined, Winterfell itself would confer a considerable advantage on whoever held it. Robert Baratheon would have seen that at once and moved swiftly to secure the castle, with the forced marches and midnight rides for which he had been famous. Would his brother be as bold?
Not likely. Stannis was a deliberate commander, and his host was a half-digested stew of clansmen, southron knights, king's men and queen's men, salted with a few northern lords. He should move on Winterfell swiftly, or not at all, Jon thought. It was not his place to advise the king, but …
 
This to me signifies that Stannis was doomed the moment he did not follow the bolded part above.
 
And then there is another offhand thought by Jon, about the fate of Winterfell, which I cannot help but feel was a bit of foreshadowing:
 
He was not at all sure how he felt about what he had just read. Battles had been fought at Winterfell before, but never one without a Stark on one side or the other.
 
It seems like Martin wants us to feel unease at the thought of a non-Stark capturing Winterfell back from its enemies. He conveys the sense of "this is not how it should be". Even if Stannis wins, it will leave us with this feeling of something not being right about the whole business.

Well, maybe there's a wee Starkling on a shaggy unicorn nearby. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Not really. Stannis attacked Renly's lands and forced a battle between the two by telling him he would destroy him if he did not submit to him. Stannis threw down the gauntlet, Stannis actively came looking for the fight as he was desperate for the support of the Lords loyal to Renly.

It applies far much more to Stannis than it does to Renly 

Did Ramsay not win against a larger army at the Battle of WInterfell? Did Ramsay not win back Moat Calin for the North? Did Roose not win back Harrenhal in the Riverlands?

 

Renly would've killed Stannis in the battle that never happened. He even was merciful (in his mind) when he ordered his people to not disgrace his brother's body after THEY KILL HIM. I don't see how it is different.

It might be, in some hypocritical point of view. Two men fighting over the same thing, one prevails, and he is the bad one only because he managed to do it first.

I don't share this view.

1. Ramsay didn't take back Moat Cailin in a battle. 

2. Roose didn't take Harrenhal in a battle. 

3. The "Battle" of Winterfell was won after Rodrik thought of Bolton men as reinforcements and Starks were off guard, betrayed by their Bolton "allies". 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Stannis moved on Renly b/c Renly betrayed him by crowning himself ahead of his elder living brother. 

Renly betrayed his nephew, not Stannis. If Stannis had evidence that Joffrey and his siblings were bastards he should have shared it with Renly (and his bannerman) there and then. Instead he just proclaims himself the King and expects everyone to simply say yes. 

In fact if any brother betrayed anyone it was Stannis not trying to warn Robert, but that is the topic of another discussion. 

Quote

When you talk about Ramsay winning against a larger army I assume you're referring to when he tricked Rodrik Cassel, right? Because that was, well, a trick.

Yes. There is nothing wrong with using tricks. 

Stannis seemed well satisfied with that. "I can give you such men, yes. I have a hundred knights who would sooner read than fight. Be open where you can and stealthy where you must. Use every smuggler's trick you know, the black sails, the hidden coves, whatever it requires.

Stannis himself's most famous victory was lulling the Ironborn into a trap and then being able to attack from the the North and the South.

Quote

 

Won't work again even if the opportunity to try it presented itself, which I find unlikely.

Maybe.

Quote

 

The same goes for taking MC from the ironborn. Roose taking Harrenhal also relied on tricks and treachery, after all the BM switching sides is what allowed him to do it. And the cherry on top is Arya and Jaqen helping him from within. 

Wait, so the Boltons constantly trick their enemies and you don't think they are capable of doing it again?

 

13 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

Renly would've killed Stannis in the battle that never happened. He even was merciful (in his mind) when he ordered his people to not disgrace his brother's body after THEY KILL HIM. I don't see how it is different.

Stannis brought the battle to Renly. Renly did not attack Dragonstone and then tell Stannis he would destroy him. 

Stannis is the aggressor in this situation, of course it is different. 

13 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

 

1. Ramsay didn't take back Moat Cailin in a battle. 

Like Stannis did not take Storm's End or Dragonstone in a battle. They all count though, right?

13 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

2. Roose didn't take Harrenhal in a battle. 

He actually did. There was a garrison left with Amory Lorch. I didnt call it particularly impressive, bit then your claim was not about impressive victories but victories. 

13 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

3. The "Battle" of Winterfell was won after Rodrik thought of Bolton men as reinforcements and Starks were off guard, betrayed by their Bolton "allies". 

Which was pretty spectacularly stupid of Rodrik considering he had been fighting against the Boltons in the Hornwood lands. 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

Stannis wins the Battle of Ice, but is somehow incapacitated in the process. So the Boltons have lost the 1500 Freys, and maybe a good part of Ramsay's men, but Ramsay retreats to Winterfell, weakened and without his bride, but alive.  Then Davos arrives at Eastwatch with Rickon and a few thousand Skagosi warriors. Jon is revived and takes the role of Rickon's regent. They join with the Manderlys, the Mountain Clansmen and the rest of the North and march on Winterfell, where Ramsay is huddling in increasing desperation.

Yes , I think something like this is what will happen. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

Stannis is too craven to take on an old man who threw a metal glove in his face

Stannis and craven cannot exist in the same sentence.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So Stannis is awesome and will beat the Boltons - possible

Spoiler

I might have had a dream or something that he kills his daughter to alleviate the show storm that is fucking up his army.

It would be ironic if Mel or better yet Selyse heard Stannis dies and uses kings blood to do some funky shit thinking that she is helping but in fact has just killed his daughter for non reason.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

Renly betrayed his nephew, not Stannis. If Stannis had evidence that Joffrey and his siblings were bastards he should have shared it with Renly (and his bannerman) there and then. Instead he just proclaims himself the King and expects everyone to simply say yes. 

In fact if any brother betrayed anyone it was Stannis not trying to warn Robert, but that is the topic of another discussion. 

Yes. There is nothing wrong with using tricks. 

Stannis seemed well satisfied with that. "I can give you such men, yes. I have a hundred knights who would sooner read than fight. Be open where you can and stealthy where you must. Use every smuggler's trick you know, the black sails, the hidden coves, whatever it requires.

Stannis himself's most famous victory was lulling the Ironborn into a trap and then being able to attack from the the North and the South.

Maybe.

Wait, so the Boltons constantly trick their enemies and you don't think they are capable of doing it again?

 

Stannis brought the battle to Renly. Renly did not attack Dragonstone and then tell Stannis he would destroy him. 

Stannis is the aggressor in this situation, of course it is different. 

Like Stannis did not take Storm's End or Dragonstone in a battle. They all count though, right?

He actually did. There was a garrison left with Amory Lorch. I didnt call it particularly impressive, bit then your claim was not about impressive victories but victories. 

Which was pretty spectacularly stupid of Rodrik considering he had been fighting against the Boltons in the Hornwood lands. 

 

 

 

And why are you going into discussion with me about who Renly betrayed?

You think I won't notice your trolling and jumping from subject to subject to subject until you find ground suitable to your intentions? I simply said Renly wanted to kill Stannis and vice versa. Not why and who they betrayed. 

Next, you continue to troll and manipulate with everything you can, planting words everywhere I never wrote. 

1. You're trolling that I compared Stannis' Dragonstone and Storm's end captures with Ramsay's, which I didn't. You did. You put your own words where it suits you, creating theories and debating them with yourself in a reply to me. Moat Cailin wasn't a battle, but manipulating the mighty 60 Ironborn into leaving it and offer them a "deal" Ramsay of course didn't fulfill. 

2. What battle exactly? Vargo Hoat slaughtering his employers? Roose didn't exactly participate himself in it, didn't he? 

3. When did I say Rodrick is smart for trusting the Boltons? I know, I never did.

Don't bother to reply though. Those are rhetorical questions. Feed your trolling ambitions somewhere else. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

I don't see how Stannis can win the battle. Even if he destroys the Freys and defeats Ramsay he is still stranded in the snow without any food. The possibility that I see the plot allowing for is some kind of ruse that would allow him to enter Winterfell.

Conveniently, there are potential ruses everywhere. He's dismantled the Karstark plot to betray him, and now has several hundred soldiers that Roose thinks he can count on. He's taken the ravens from the Dreadfort maester, which were being used to keep Roose up-to-date on the condition and location of Stannis' army. And a small Manderly army was ordered to ride out and fight Stannis, but will have no intention of actually doing so. 

The most obvious ruse is to defeat the Frey army (with or without a Manderly backstab), then send a report back to Roose (that he will be expecting) detailing Stannis' defeat, then send disguised or turned soldiers (whom Roose is also expecting) back to Winterfell. With the Bolton forces lulled into a false sense of security, several hundred men inside the walls, several thousand other men ready to turn on Roose should a situation present itself, and a major snowstorm masking his movements outside the walls, taking Winterfell isn't anywhere near impossible. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, The Drunkard said:

Conveniently, there are potential ruses everywhere. He's dismantled the Karstark plot to betray him, and now has several hundred soldiers that Roose thinks he can count on. He's taken the ravens from the Dreadfort maester, which were being used to keep Roose up-to-date on the condition and location of Stannis' army. And a small Manderly army was ordered to ride out and fight Stannis, but will have no intention of actually doing so. 

The most obvious ruse is to defeat the Frey army (with or without a Manderly backstab), then send a report back to Roose (that he will be expecting) detailing Stannis' defeat, then send disguised or turned soldiers (whom Roose is also expecting) back to Winterfell. With the Bolton forces lulled into a false sense of security, several hundred men inside the walls, several thousand other men ready to turn on Roose should a situation present itself, and a major snowstorm masking his movements outside the walls, taking Winterfell isn't anywhere near impossible. 

Yes, that is the obvious way to resolve the Battle of Ice AND the Battle of Winterfell quickly - say within the first third of the book. That does leave us with the conundrum of Stannis now ruling the North from Winterfell, with most probably a docile Rickon Stark as his puppet.

That leaves the Starks largely as bystanders in the retaking of Winterfell, though. And mostly irrelevant to the consolidation of the North in preparation for the War against the Others.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/21/2017 at 2:45 AM, shortguy457 said:

Man why does everyone think Stannis will come out on top and defeat Ramsay? Or even take on the Night King. He is so not the prince that was promised like Melisandre believes. First of all, he's a secondary character!! He has no real backstory, there's no emotion to the guy. He's completely stoic. He's not even introduced until the second book.

 

His apparent inclusion in the Slayer of Lies quatrain of the House of the Undying prophecy implies that he is a lie that Daenerys will have to slay. If he dies somewhere in the snow outside of Winterfell then he isn't living up to his part of that prophecy. One either has to have a different interpretation of the identity of the shadowless blue-eyed king with flaming sword (it's one of the clearer parts of the prophecy IMO) or one has to conclude that the prophecy is essentially meaningless, random images of stuff happening around the world that won't ever have anything to do with Daenerys.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

And why are you going into discussion with me about who Renly betrayed?

eh? Read the post and see who I am replying to. It was not you but somone who brought up Renly's betrayal. 

29 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

You think I won't notice your trolling and jumping from subject to subject to subject until you find ground suitable to your intentions? I simply said Renly wanted to kill Stannis and vice versa. Not why and who they betrayed. 

And I pointed out the truth in the matter. Stannis had gone to Storm's End, had begun cutting down Renly's forests to make siege equipment before Renly had even arrived and threatened to 'destroy' his brother. 

Stannis is clearly the aggressor in this situation. I am sorry if you think that someone pointing out what actually happened in the books in 'trolling'. 

29 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

Next, you continue to troll and manipulate with everything you can, planting words everywhere I never wrote. 

Sure. 

29 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

1. You're trolling that I compared Stannis' Dragonstone and Storm's end captures with Ramsay's, which I didn't. You did. You put your own words where it suits you, creating theories and debating them with yourself in a reply to me. Moat Cailin wasn't a battle, but manipulating the mighty 60 Ironborn into leaving it and offer them a "deal" Ramsay of course didn't fulfill. 

Just like Stannis did not do battle in winning Storm's End and Dragonstone, right? I'd still count them as victories for Stannis. I take it that you don't? That Stannis did not win either of those settlements?

29 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

2. What battle exactly? Vargo Hoat slaughtering his employers? Roose didn't exactly participate himself in it, didn't he? 

Still a victory, no?

29 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

3. When did I say Rodrick is smart for trusting the Boltons? I know, I never did.

Where did I say that you called Rodrik smart? 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Yes, that is the obvious way to resolve the Battle of Ice AND the Battle of Winterfell quickly - say within the first third of the book. That does leave us with the conundrum of Stannis now ruling the North from Winterfell, with most probably a docile Rickon Stark as his puppet.

That leaves the Starks largely as bystanders in the retaking of Winterfell, though. And mostly irrelevant to the consolidation of the North in preparation for the War against the Others.

I don't see why the Starks would need to be involved or why we should assume that they would be given the series we're reading. The Starks didn't get their vengeance against Joffrey or Tywin or Balon, so Roose being taken down by someone else isn't unlikely. 

I also don't see a feasible way for Jon to do that. Stannis has already rallied the northmen willing to openly defy Roose, and if he fails at Winterfell they will all die, given the weather makes any sort of successful retreat impossible. They also can't wait, given how drastic the food situation is already. (and having Jon repeat what Stannis did in ADWD is just pointless)

Plus, he's one of the three 'lies', and his only lie is that he's Azor Ahai. I think people are actually going to have to believe that for the slaying to mean anything, and they will only believe that if he's doing Azor Ahai-y things like trying to hold back the Others, and he's not in a position to do that without the North.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, The Drunkard said:

Conveniently, there are potential ruses everywhere. He's dismantled the Karstark plot to betray him, and now has several hundred soldiers that Roose thinks he can count on. He's taken the ravens from the Dreadfort maester, which were being used to keep Roose up-to-date on the condition and location of Stannis' army. And a small Manderly army was ordered to ride out and fight Stannis, but will have no intention of actually doing so. 

The most obvious ruse is to defeat the Frey army (with or without a Manderly backstab), then send a report back to Roose (that he will be expecting) detailing Stannis' defeat, then send disguised or turned soldiers (whom Roose is also expecting) back to Winterfell. With the Bolton forces lulled into a false sense of security, several hundred men inside the walls, several thousand other men ready to turn on Roose should a situation present itself, and a major snowstorm masking his movements outside the walls, taking Winterfell isn't anywhere near impossible. 

That is along the lines of what I was thinking. It doesn't mean it has to go that way though. For instance the Manderlys could arrive first fall into frozen lake themselves sparing the Freys.

The limited visibility and mobility change all the rules and there is the fact that there are troops who don't know who they'll be fighting. It has the makings of a major clusterfuck.

The pink letter's mention of a seven day battle does not sound like an implausible scenario. A huge inconclusive mess sounds just about right.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Yes, that is the obvious way to resolve the Battle of Ice AND the Battle of Winterfell quickly - say within the first third of the book. That does leave us with the conundrum of Stannis now ruling the North from Winterfell, with most probably a docile Rickon Stark as his puppet.

That leaves the Starks largely as bystanders in the retaking of Winterfell, though. And mostly irrelevant to the consolidation of the North in preparation for the War against the Others.

Good observations, so Stannis wins through trickery against the odds and takes down the Boltons, not very satisfying.

I suppose Ramsey could escape marry Euron and get the IB to fund the GC to rebalance the odds and keep the drama going.  Luckily we are not writing the story.

@Damon_Tor all Dany needs to do is become Azor Ahai to slay the lie, she doesn't even need to cross paths with Stannis.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

41 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

Good observations, so Stannis wins through trickery against the odds and takes down the Boltons, not very satisfying.

I suppose Ramsey could escape marry Euron and get the IB to fund the GC to rebalance the odds and keep the drama going.  Luckily we are not writing the story.

@Damon_Tor all Dany needs to do is become Azor Ahai to slay the lie, she doesn't even need to cross paths with Stannis.

 

Agreed. She has to slay the lies, not necessarily the people.

Wait...does anyone remember Mel's exact request when she's asking R'hllor for a glimpse of Stannis and he's only showing her "Snow?" Does she ask for a glimpse of Azor Ahai Reborn, or The Prince that was Promised?

Edited by Lady Blizzardborn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Agreed. She has to slay the lies, not necessarily the people.

Wait...does anyone remember Mel's exact request when she's asking R'hllor for a glimpse of Stannis and he's only showing her "Snow?" Does she ask for a glimpse of Azor Ahai Reborn, or The Prince that was Promised?

Azor Ahai.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Azor Ahai.

So Dany may not be able to slay the lie by becoming AAR herself. But still, she doesn't have to kill Stannis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, The Bear Who Knocks said:

Hes gonna light Ramsay on fire like the cannibals

Manderly will be the BBQ chef! 

:wub:  your new avi btw. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now