Heresy 200 The bicentennial edition

[Matthew.]

15 hours ago, JNR said:

We know from Leaf, immediately prior to that passage, that they expect to vanish as a species, just as the lions already have, and the giants and direwolves soon will:

...

How many direwolves are there?  Not very many, that's for sure (though the Wolfswood is a Britain-sized, aptly-named, and underpopulated place).

It's the CotF's confident expectation of their forthcoming extinction that makes Bran notice how far from bloodthirsty for vengeance they are.

Just to briefly add onto this, Bran describes BR's cave as only housing a little more than three score Singers--now, we don't know that this is the only cave in all of Westeros where the CotF can be found, nor do we know that Bran's census was exhaustive, but nonetheless, for an organism with a low birthrate, this doesn't seem to bode well for their survival as a species.

Bran III in ADWD also shows us just how devastating the coming of the LN is to everything--crows stand frozen to death in their trees, mutilated bear wights wander the land, etc.

IMO, it doesn't make a great deal of sense for the CotF to wait ~8,000 years to unleash the ice apocalypse just so some scattered remnants of their species can inherit an earth that they're soon to fade from, and even as a vengeance, LN 2.0 seems at odds with the philosophy of nature that Leaf espouses--whatever intelligence is behind the current batch of Others (if there is one at all), it is irreverent of life and nature.

Whatever the true motives for the Others, I don't think it really fits for the CotF to be the masterminds behind the current invasion--of course, as discussions in this thread have raised, the will of weirnet and the will of the CotF might not necessarily be in alignment anymore.

[Matthew.]

18 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Agreed, judging by the previous series of the mummers version and hints of the one to come, it looks to be fan fiction rather than GRRM and as he himself has said something quite different from the book.

GRRM did touch upon this a little bit yesterday:
http://grrm.livejournal.com/541795.html?thread=26239843#t26239843

Quote

WINDS will be different in some ways, but will parallel the show in others. At this point, there are probably a dozen characters who are dead on the show but alive in the books, so it would be impossible for the two to remain the same. (Also, of course, there are characters in the books who have never even existed on the show, like Victarion Greyjoy, Jon Connington, Penny, Arianne Martell... )

Which is...essentially a reiteration of what most people already understood (save for those that believe the show is now inventing every plot point that it hits), though its still nice for GRRM to actually acknowledge a question about ASOIAF/GoT.
 

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, Matthew. said:

GRRM did touch upon this a little bit yesterday:
http://grrm.livejournal.com/541795.html?thread=26239843#t26239843

Which is...essentially a reiteration of what most people already understood (save for those that believe the show is now inventing every plot point that it hits), though its still nice for GRRM to actually acknowledge a question about ASOIAF/GoT.
 

I like the question that preceded it, I too think the show sucks.  It's interesting that he hasn't really heralded that a new season is about to start very much, and not only did he allow that question to remain undeleted but he answered it.  His enthusiasm for the mummer's version seems to be dimming a bit.

[Black Crow]

1 hour ago, Matthew. said:

IMO, it doesn't make a great deal of sense for the CotF to wait ~8,000 years to unleash the ice apocalypse just so some scattered remnants of their species can inherit an earth that they're soon to fade from, and even as a vengeance, LN 2.0 seems at odds with the philosophy of nature that Leaf espouses--whatever intelligence is behind the current batch of Others (if there is one at all), it is irreverent of life and nature.
 

There is of course a philosophical point here.

To we humans who live for three score years and ten give or take a few, 8,000 years [to pluck a figure from the air] is indeed a very long time, but to someone whose lifespan can be reckoned in centuries, perception of that time can be very different. We, almost certainly deliberately, get a hint of this in the cave.

As to the first Long Night, down in their caves and hollow hills with no discernible passage of time they sat it out before while the land was cleansed ready to start anew in the Spring. To them, with their extended lifespan it may not have been a long Winter at all.

[Matthew.]

8 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

To we humans who live for three score years and ten give or take a few, 8,000 years [to pluck a figure from the air] is indeed a very long time, but to someone whose lifespan can be reckoned in centuries, perception of that time can be very different. We, almost certainly deliberately, get a hint of this in the cave.

It isn't about patience, it's about how far they've diminished as a people over 8,000 years. If the CotF are behind the present attack, they have now waited so long that LN 2.0 can only be read as petulant nihilism--if they have to go down, they're taking everything else with them. The significance of the 8,000 years is that, presumably, there was a period where they still had enough numbers to repopulate Westeros, yet Leaf's own comments suggest that that time has passed.

To reiterate, what Bran witnesses through Summer in Bran III ADWD seems at odds with the philosophy revealed in Leaf's words, as well as the actions of Coldhands--contrast the way Coldhands murmurs a blessing as he is forced to slit the throat of the elk that has carried them so far - that will soon provide them with sustenance - vs. the indifference with which the icey horde spreads death; contrast it with dead ravens and crows in the trees, with the wights violently punching their bare hands through Sam's horse in ASOS. The Others and the wights don't care about life, they don't care about the balance of nature.

None of this is to specifically reject the idea that the CotF were responsible for the Others being created in the first place, only that there's little to suggest that they control the Others at present (if they ever did at all), much less that the CotF are masterminding LN 2.0.

[Black Crow]

59 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

It isn't about patience, it's about how far they've diminished as a people over 8,000 years. If the CotF are behind the present attack, they have now waited so long that LN 2.0 can only be read as petulant nihilism--if they have to go down, they're taking everything else with them. The significance of the 8,000 years is that, presumably, there was a period where they still had enough numbers to repopulate Westeros, yet Leaf's own comments suggest that that time has passed.

To reiterate, what Bran witnesses through Summer in Bran III ADWD seems at odds with the philosophy revealed in Leaf's words, as well as the actions of Coldhands--contrast the way Coldhands murmurs a blessing as he is forced to slit the throat of the elk that has carried them so far - that will soon provide them with sustenance - vs. the indifference with which the icey horde spreads death; contrast it with dead ravens and crows in the trees, with the wights violently punching their bare hands through Sam's horse in ASOS. The Others and the wights don't care about life, they don't care about the balance of nature.

None of this is to specifically reject the idea that the CotF were responsible for the Others being created in the first place, only that there's little to suggest that they control the Others at present (if they ever did at all), much less that the CotF are masterminding LN 2.0.

Depends how you define patience and masterminding.

As to to the first the point I was making is that if the tree-huggers live for centuries it may not seem to them such a long time

As to masterminding, once again we may be talking swords without a hilt; just because they may have brought about or helped to bring about the coming winter and its attendant horrors, that doesn't mean they can control or rather manage it.

[Matthew.]

2 hours ago, Black Crow said:

As to to the first the point I was making is that if the tree-huggers live for centuries it may not seem to them such a long time

But this is still not relevant to the argument I'm making--the issue here is not how long 8,000 years "seems" to the CotF, it's that waiting that long makes no sense if they're to actually benefit from LN 2.0. This is not a people who have patiently bided their time, waiting for the perfect moment to strike...they're already several thousand years too late for the "perfect moment." There's no appreciable benefit to the CotF to have waited this long.

The problem is that their numbers and birth rates - and Leaf's own assessment of their future - suggests a species that has already passed the point at which it can avert extinction, so what is their end game in unleashing Long Night 2.0? They cannot repopulate, the Westeros they'd be reclaiming would be a barren wasteland, and they've now waited so long that they're at the mercy of human greenseers to execute the final phases of their plan.

2 hours ago, Black Crow said:

As to masterminding, once again we may be talking swords without a hilt; just because they may have brought about or helped to bring about the coming winter and its attendant horrors, that doesn't mean they can control or rather manage it.

I don't disagree, it's just that the whole "sword without a hilt" reading doesn't really require that the CotF would be behind the present return of the Others--indeed, having seen the first time around that the LN has consequences that extend far beyond its impact on humanity, that's all the more reason for them to not go down this road again.

If the sorcery that created the Others is also responsible for the broken seasons, then the setting would suggest that the LH-CotF alliance of the original LN did not permanently resolve the problem; thus, I don't read the current outbreak as the CotF trying to destroy humanity, I read it as the CotF and humanity still living with the consequences of what was unleashed 8,000 years ago. IMO, that sorcery hasn't had a "hilt" since the era of the NK, if it ever had a hilt at all.

Consequently, Bran wouldn't have been brought north to worsen the situation, but to perform damage control.

[Melifeather]

On 7/9/2017 at 1:45 PM, TheButcherCrow said:

What's up guys ?  Happy 200th to Heresy, I had to pop back in for this   Fantastic essays btw, the wheel of time one in particular has gone right up my flagpole, I am saluting that one for sure.

This is something I've been saying for years.  Whatever the circumstances, when humans gained the ability to access the weirnet the nature of that "godhead" changed.  Why?  Because:

 

Hey, thanks for the shout out for the wheel of time essay! If you have any comments to contribute or questions I'd love to discuss! 

[JNR]

7 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

His enthusiasm for the mummer's version seems to be dimming a bit.

Yeah, I have the same sensation.  Though of course his phrasing is subtle and ambiguous. 

6 hours ago, Black Crow said:

As to the first Long Night, down in their caves and hollow hills with no discernible passage of time they sat it out before while the land was cleansed ready to start anew in the Spring.

It's possible, of course.  My guess, though, is that they were doing the same thing then that they're doing now: hiding behind a ward created to protect themselves -- and that's exactly what made them hard for the Last Hero to find.

6 hours ago, Matthew. said:

If the CotF are behind the present attack, they have now waited so long that LN 2.0 can only be read as petulant nihilism--if they have to go down, they're taking everything else with them.

I mostly agree, though there is another possibility I can't rule out: that Leaf lied about their doom.  That there are hundreds of thousands of CotF in that measureless cave system, undiscovered by humanity.  That they're nowhere near extinction, but are instead cackling evilly and twirling their mustaches as their minions scour away all traces of their conquerors from the face of Westeros.

This scenario might actually justify their waiting thousands of years to unleash some hideous vengeance... but to me it seems about as likely as a 2017 ADOS pub date.

[Matthew.]

15 hours ago, JNR said:

I mostly agree, though there is another possibility I can't rule out: that Leaf lied about their doom.  That there are hundreds of thousands of CotF in that measureless cave system, undiscovered by humanity.  That they're nowhere near extinction, but are instead cackling evilly and twirling their mustaches as their minions scour away all traces of their conquerors from the face of Westeros.

This scenario might actually justify their waiting thousands of years to unleash some hideous vengeance... but to me it seems about as likely as a 2017 ADOS pub date.

When I considered this possibility previously, I ran into what I think is a glaring problem (which I'm sure is why you don't think it's likely either): if the CotF have restored their numbers, then why do they need Bloodraven and Bran? Why allow their entire plan to hinge on the compliance of a human boy?

Presumably, if there were thousands of CotF around, they could produce their own greenser; OTOH, if the CotF we see in BR's cave are the last of their people, then it may very well have been hundreds of years (or even longer) since the last time a CotF greenseer was born, and the CotF calling BR "The Last Greenseer" certainly seems suggestive, although there might be some other reason for that title, as it is reminiscent of titles like Last Hero, First Men, First King, First Keep, etc--maybe there's some significance there that isn't yet apparent.

Edit: Hmmm...actually, upon further consideration, the suggestion in the text that the birth of a greenseer is a rare event does actually give us an alternative explanation for why the CotF might have failed for so long to act. Perhaps they were so diminished by either their wars with the First Men or with the Andals that they've not produced a single greenseer in thousands of years.

Nonetheless, during that same time frame, human worship of the old gods continued, so surely they didn't need to wait ~8,000 years for Bloodraven?

[JNR]

Well, it just all seems pretty elaborate, doesn't it?  All this has to be true...

1. Attacking men with Popsicles/wights is an incredibly slow process that takes thousands of years

2. The CotF are lying about nearly being extinct, and thus they do have a motive to retake Westeros

3. They have hidden their true (huge) population in the caverns so thoroughly, Bran and Co. see no trace

4. The wight attack that nearly killed Bran and Co. outside the cave was a sham event

5. Despite having a huge population, the CotF have no greenseer, and thus, needed Bloodraven and Bran

I find it much simpler to imagine that the Popsicles and wights have nothing to do with the CotF... the CotF are afraid of them... that's why the ward exists in the cave... the same was true in the Long Night... and after the Long Night when the Wall was built, it was the CotF who created the very similar ward in the Wall... and that ward is the reason Coldhands says he can't pass the Wall, and also the reason the two dead men Jon put in ice cells never became wights.

[Black Crow]

23 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I like the question that preceded it, I too think the show sucks.  It's interesting that he hasn't really heralded that a new season is about to start very much, and not only did he allow that question to remain undeleted but he answered it.  His enthusiasm for the mummer's version seems to be dimming a bit.

I was struck, walking home this evening, by the fact that all the posters advertising the upcoming new season depict the Nights King; from which I think we can fairly safely assume that once again he is going to figure prominently in the episodes to come. Yet in the book he doesn't exist.

This, I think points to a major divergence from the books, far more important than might at first appears. In terms of the mummers' play its straightforward, we have an antagonist against whom the hero must rally all mankind. But as that particular antagonist doesn't exist in the book, we must look in the book for the real one, rather than await a last minute appearance from the wings, and that in turn is going to utterly diverge from the ultimate dynamics of the mummers version.

 

[Brad Stark]

2 hours ago, Black Crow said:

I was struck, walking home this evening, by the fact that all the posters advertising the upcoming new season depict the Nights King; from which I think we can fairly safely assume that once again he is going to figure prominently in the episodes to come. Yet in the book he doesn't exist.

This, I think points to a major divergence from the books, far more important than might at first appears. In terms of the mummers' play its straightforward, we have an antagonist against whom the hero must rally all mankind. But as that particular antagonist doesn't exist in the book, we must look in the book for the real one, rather than await a last minute appearance from the wings, and that in turn is going to utterly diverge from the ultimate dynamics of the mummers version.

 

The mummers' Night King is a composite character.   He is an Andal in the script, which doesn't fit with our timelines.  He is the first white walker.  He is The Nights King of legend.  And he probably plays the role of the books antagonist(s).  Benjen and Coldhands became a composite character,  and Dany and Young Griff did, as well as Lady Stoneheart and Arya.

If the book's Night King tale has any truth, the Night King is NOT the first white walker,  rather was seduced by the first white walker.  My theory is we will see a new Night King,  someone we already know in the books, and he is manipulating Craster to build a new set of Others and create a new Long Night.

[Black Crow]

So far as the books are concerned the white walkers came for the first time during the Long Night and I see no reason to connect them with the Nights King, except in so far as he and his men may have been doing a Craster - and I remain firmly of the opinion that when Ygritte says that Craster bears a heavy curse, she means that it is something he has to bear because he has inherited it.

As to the white lady, really I don't see her as a walker at all, but rather the equivalent of the red woman; an agent as Val may turn out to be.

On the whole though I stillsee the current situation as being that both Ice and Fire are poised for battle, but that battle has so far been delayed because both are waiting for a champion to come again; the King of Winter and Azor Ahai, and both will be found from amongst the central characters in the book, not outsiders.

[wolfmaid7]

4 hours ago, JNR said:

Well, it just all seems pretty elaborate, doesn't it?  All this has to be true...

1. Attacking men with Popsicles/wights is an incredibly slow process that takes thousands of years

2. The CotF are lying about nearly being extinct, and thus they do have a motive to retake Westeros

3. They have hidden their true (huge) population in the caverns so thoroughly, Bran and Co. see no trace

4. The wight attack that nearly killed Bran and Co. outside the cave was a sham event

5. Despite having a huge population, the CotF have no greenseer, and thus, needed Bloodraven and Bran

I find it much simpler to imagine that the Popsicles and wights have nothing to do with the CotF... the CotF are afraid of them... that's why the ward exists in the cave... the same was true in the Long Night... and after the Long Night when the Wall was built, it was the CotF who created the very similar ward in the Wall... and that ward is the reason Coldhands says he can't pass the Wall, and also the reason the two dead men Jon put in ice cells never became wights.

I rather like the idea that they lied.Or maybe I should say they answered Brian's question in such a way we assume their numbers are "small".

Leaf struck me as giving a rather fae answer.A couple of things I find interesting.

She said that the giants was a means of population control for them less they over run the earth.That statement in itself is weird to me.

Also,in the face of their natural predator being wiped out and the replacement believing they have been all gone for 8,000 yrs,how could they be dwindling?How could their population be low?

 

[Matthew.]

4 hours ago, JNR said:

I find it much simpler to imagine that the Popsicles and wights have nothing to do with the CotF... the CotF are afraid of them... that's why the ward exists in the cave... the same was true in the Long Night... and after the Long Night when the Wall was built, it was the CotF who created the very similar ward in the Wall... and that ward is the reason Coldhands says he can't pass the Wall, and also the reason the two dead men Jon put in ice cells never became wights.

This is all true, but I do think a compromise interpretation exists. Namely, even if the CotF made the WWs, that wouldn't necessarily mean that the WWs can be controlled; for that matter, if the potential to create WWs exists within the CotF's magic system, that raises an obvious observation: humanity has inherited the magic of the CotF, and humanity might not be as restrained in their usage of said magic as the CotF.

As a parallel example, Dany is the "mother of dragons," but she could not restrain Drogon from terrorizing shepherds, and Quaithe implies in ACOK that Dany's pyre had widespread consequences on sorcery.

Using that as a model, the ritual to create Others didn't necessarily have to be some grand, evil scheme--it may be that the CotF intended to create a tireless guardian to defend the last of the deep forests - particularly, the Haunted Forest (a suggestive name, yes?) - and that ritual quickly escalated into something unmanageable, necessitating their retreat behind wards, and their eventual alliance with the Last Hero.

I'm not entirely sold that the CotF are responsible, but I do think they should be on our short list of culprits, and that there are certain subtle signs that point in their direction--but I also think there's just as strong a possibility that the Others were either created by sorcery that humans brought with them into Westeros, or created by humans abusing the sorcery of the old gods.

Edit: And, on a personal note, I think it may turn out that the more significant question with the Others is not "What was their origin," but "why are they back now?"

At a superficial level, their place in the story seems strange, and not entirely in line with GRRM's own criticisms of the fantasy genre--even if they don't have a literal Dark Lord behind them, they operate like an evil race whose only purpose is to spread death, so while they might be unique in aesthetic, in motives they're essentially orcs.

For that reason, I'm inclined to believe that their return will tie into the rest of the narrative in some unforeseen way.

4 hours ago, Black Crow said:

I was struck, walking home this evening, by the fact that all the posters advertising the upcoming new season depict the Nights King; from which I think we can fairly safely assume that once again he is going to figure prominently in the episodes to come. Yet in the book he doesn't exist.

This is a leap. His existence is indeterminate, and as Brad notes, he could be a composite character who represents an idea that is still essentially true--that a human serves as a "Night's King"/King of Winter, and can create new white walkers and raise the dead.

[Brad Stark]

The Others are back at the same time the dragons are.  We also have the quote about how the trees have eyes again.  Ice and Fire magic seems to be comming back and getting stronger.  This could be a cycle of magic waxing and waning, or it could be something someone did.

It seems likely the creation of the first dragon, the first Other, the seasons being off and the Long Night all happened at the same time.

I disagree that the Others are essentially Orcs.  Tolkien's Orcs were selfish brutes forced to follow orders.  We really have no idea what the Others motives are.

[wolfmaid7]

15 hours ago, Matthew. said:

This is all true, but I do think a compromise interpretation exists. Namely, even if the CotF made the WWs, that wouldn't necessarily mean that the WWs can be controlled; for that matter, if the potential to create WWs exists within the CotF's magic system, that raises an obvious observation: humanity has inherited the magic of the CotF, and humanity might not be as restrained in their usage of said magic as the CotF.

As a parallel example, Dany is the "mother of dragons," but she could not restrain Drogon from terrorizing shepherds, and Quaithe implies in ACOK that Dany's pyre had widespread consequences on sorcery.

Using that as a model, the ritual to create Others didn't necessarily have to be some grand, evil scheme--it may be that the CotF intended to create a tireless guardian to defend the last of the deep forests - particularly, the Haunted Forest (a suggestive name, yes?) - and that ritual quickly escalated into something unmanageable, necessitating their retreat behind wards, and their eventual alliance with the Last Hero.

I'm not entirely sold that the CotF are responsible, but I do think they should be on our short list of culprits, and that there are certain subtle signs that point in their direction--but I also think there's just as strong a possibility that the Others were either created by sorcery that humans brought with them into Westeros, or created by humans abusing the sorcery of the old gods.

Edit: And, on a personal note, I think it may turn out that the more significant question with the Others is not "What was their origin," but "why are they back now?"

At a superficial level, their place in the story seems strange, and not entirely in line with GRRM's own criticisms of the fantasy genre--even if they don't have a literal Dark Lord behind them, they operate like an evil race whose only purpose is to spread death, so while they might be unique in aesthetic, in motives they're essentially orcs.

For that reason, I'm inclined to believe that their return will tie into the rest of the narrative in some unforeseen way.

This is a leap. His existence is indeterminate, and as Brad notes, he could be a composite character who represents an idea that is still essentially true--that a human serves as a "Night's King"/King of Winter, and can create new white walkers and raise the dead.

Or a third option they were always there and we are dealing with another faction where that is their purpose..That's why the lil tree huggers in the cave haven't made moves to stop them or mention to Bran that they are an enemy.

They know when an army ants marches to get out of the way.

Structures like Storms end and possibly Winter fell were probably suppose to be  safe haven for people when the purge happened again.Knowledge BTB would have been told so he would make arrangements for a remnant of humans.

Yeah I've been saying for years that the white walkers are just boogey men.They are not in the raising dead business we are looking at another uber Skinchanger (greenseer level skills) who just does it with the dying and the dead.

 

 

[JNR]

20 hours ago, Black Crow said:

In terms of the mummers' play its straightforward, we have an antagonist against whom the hero must rally all mankind. But as that particular antagonist doesn't exist in the book, we must look in the book for the real one, rather than await a last minute appearance from the wings, and that in turn is going to utterly diverge from the ultimate dynamics of the mummers version.

Agreed about the divergence, but am not at all sure there will ever be a central Dark Lord of the proposed type.  

GRRM's opinion of Dark Lords is on record, unfavorable, and, for once, not at all ambiguous.  So I'm not at all surprised there hasn't been one in the canon so far except in the minds of the book characters like Melisandre, who watch MTV's The R'hll World.

Also, just a little fair warning to fellow Heretics: The mods are much more serious these days about show discussion and are handing out warnings as a result.  I know because I got one from a guy who was once titled, by TheRealJonSnow, "TRBM."

[JNR]

15 hours ago, wolfmaid7 said:

She said that the giants was a means of population control for them less they over run the earth.That statement in itself is weird to me.

Well, the passage is:

Quote

Before the First Men came all this land that you call Westeros was home to us, yet even in those days we were few. The gods gave us long lives but not great numbers, lest we overrun the world as deer will overrun a wood where there are no wolves to hunt them. That was in the dawn of days, when our sun was rising. Now it sinks, and this is our long dwindling. The giants are almost gone as well, they who were our bane and our brothers. The great lions of the western hills have been slain, the unicorns are all but gone, the mammoths down to a few hundred. The direwolves will outlast us all, but their time will come as well. In the world that men have made, there is no room for them, or us.

"Bane and brothers" doesn't sound like "population control" to me, but "adversaries in some cases."  

I don't think she's saying the giants were acting as wolves to keep them down; she's just saying the giants and CotF are both virtually extinct and then she goes on to name various other nearly extinct species men have all but exterminated in various ways.  

The main point is the boldfaced, which is that the CotF rate of reproduction is low, and their total population was never very high relative to the size of Westeros.  Certainly never as high as the human population is now.

16 hours ago, wolfmaid7 said:

Also,in the face of their natural predator being wiped out and the replacement believing they have been all gone for 8,000 yrs,how could they be dwindling?How could their population be low?

After the First Men slaughtered a huge fraction of them, they didn't recover because their rate of reproduction is low.  The Andals, later, did much the same as the First Men had done, and there was no Pact signed this time.  And apparently for thousands of years, the remnant population has been in hiding underground, where their resources appear too minimal (mushrooms, a few goats, fish in underground rivers) to support a growing population.