Euron Greyjoy needs a army

[LordImp]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

doesn't seem likely that he actually paid for that murder. It is more likely that Euron caught himself a Faceless Man and broke him. You don't leave the Silence unchanged, it seems.

It's highly unlikely that Euron did not pay for the FM. These guys are the best assassins in the world and I doubt that Euron break  one of them , they seem to have a strong mentality.

The idea that Jaqen-Pate is Eurons slave is not likely at all. 

Euron most certainly paid the FM with a dragon egg. 

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, LordImp said:

It's highly unlikely that Euron did not pay for the FM. These guys are the best assassins in the world and I doubt that Euron break  one of them , they seem to have a strong mentality.

The idea that Jaqen-Pate is Eurons slave is not likely at all. 

Euron most certainly paid the FM with a dragon egg. 

What use would the Faceless Men have for a dragon egg?

And when do you think Euron had the time to strike a deal with the Faceless Men? He only had his dragon-and-Daenerys plan after he captured the Qartheen warlocks. Do you think he then had the time to go to Braavos, hire a Faceless Man, and then sail from Braavos to Pyke throughout the short time frame the series gives. Euron shows up at Pyke quite early in ASoS, and Dany only leaves Qarth at the end of ACoK.

Jaqen-Pate is most likely not in Euron's service. He had no time to go to Pyke and then to Oldtown in the time frame in the books.

I do not deny that the Faceless Men should be, on average, strong in mind. But Euron should be torture-wise in a different level than even Ramsay and Roose. We don't have seen the depths of his cruelty yet but the picture has gotten more detailed in 'The Forsaken'. And he is a sorcerer. That has to be considered in that whole thing. And I'm pretty sure that Balon's murderer is eventually going to show up in the story. And I'm more inclined to believe that this person is still in Euron's employ than that he or she is going to show up in Braavos.

The best candidate there is actually Victarion's dusky woman. Euron needs a knife at Victarion's throat and nobody could do that better than a Faceless Man.

[Lion of the West]

19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Her march changed him. She must have understood now who and what she actually is. A woman that is going to be raped and killed by her enemies if she makes any mistake. She won't do that stupid stuff again she did in AFfC. But she has no friends in KL left. She cannot do anything there.

And once her children are all dead she might change her entire outlook on life, too. She will have nobody she is afraid for, greatly reducing her paranoia and increasing her determination to destroy all her enemies.

I'd like to believe that Cersei was changed by her walk of shame but beyond infuriating her I don't know how much it did to change her mindset. And to be honest I don't see Cersei calming down or that she'll get out of power, there's no need to introduce Robert Strong if Cersei is only going to be run out of time and fall in with Euron, and I think that the reason that Mace is set up as an idiot will be that he'll allow Cersei to climb back into a position of authority. Odds are that Cersei will indeed come back to power and will indeed continue her rule of ruination.

That she will dedicate herself body, mind and soul to revenge if all her children dies, that's something I am willing to believe. And I expect to, if she goes down this route, take down a chunk of Westeros with her.

[Lord Varys]

40 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

I'd like to believe that Cersei was changed by her walk of shame but beyond infuriating her I don't know how much it did to change her mindset.

There are hints that she did change in Kevan's Epilogue. At least her approach, not necessarily her goals. She did break during the walk. She was brought low and made to crawl like an animal. She felt and was completely helpless. She can recover from that but not around the people in KL. They have seen her shame, and they will all laugh about her behind her back. Even Qyburn might smirk.

40 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

And to be honest I don't see Cersei calming down or that she'll get out of power, there's no need to introduce Robert Strong if Cersei is only going to be run out of time and fall in with Euron, and I think that the reason that Mace is set up as an idiot will be that he'll allow Cersei to climb back into a position of authority. Odds are that Cersei will indeed come back to power and will indeed continue her rule of ruination.

Those are very bad odds in light of the fact that the books simply do not set up Mace as an idiot. And even if he was an idiot he has tens of thousands of men while Cersei has a few hundred. And they all know what happened to her. Ser Robert Strong is just one man. He certainly could take out all her enemies but how's that going to get her back into power? If Ser Robert were to kill Mace and Randyll then their lieutenants would take over and avenge their leaders. They would not bend the knee to Cersei.

If George wanted Cersei to be in a position of power he would have written the story differently. He could have left a Lannister army back in KL, he could have made it so that Cersei's intrigue against Margaery actually worked the way it was supposed to, etc. 

40 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

That she will dedicate herself body, mind and soul to revenge if all her children dies, that's something I am willing to believe. And I expect to, if she goes down this route, take down a chunk of Westeros with her.

Nobody in KL is going to follow Cersei. She might be able to ruin the West, since the people there are bound to follow the Lords of Casterly Rock but the Kingslanders still hate the Lannisters thanks to Lord Tywin's sack. If Cersei tried to get herself into power she would quickly end as Maegor the Cruel - perhaps on the Iron Throne, but only with a few irrelevant lordlings around her who cannot really help to cling to that power.

And again - Mace Tyrell must hate Cersei. Right now pretty much nothing is stopping him from taking his men, butcher all the Redcloaks in the Red Keep, take Maegor's Holdfast, and kill Cersei with his own hands. He could do that. There is nobody who could stop him. And Cersei must know this. Ser Robert is just one man. He might stand against a dozen or perhaps even against a score but not against hundreds of men.

[Clegane'sPup]

On 6/21/2017 at 5:31 PM, LordImp said:

But to get this he needs a army.

Yes, Euron needs an army iffin’ he plans to invade. Euron does not have an army.

The Forsaken chapter does not appear to be available on the search site. SPOILERS below.

Euron has reavers, rapers and pillagers.  Euron has holy men tied to the prow of ships. Euron does not have an army. Each time the Ironmen take a ship they have to put a captain and mates aboard it.

It is speculated that the preview chapters fans have been reading were cut from previous books.

Keeping that in mind ---- Sam in FfC sees a banner described as red eye with black pupil.

Quote

A Feast for Crows - Samwell V      "Who would be so mad as to raid this close to Oldtown?"  Xhondo pointed at a half-sunken longship in the shallows. The remnants of a banner drooped from her stern, smoke-stained and ragged. The charge was one Sam had never seen before: a red eye with a black pupil, beneath a black iron crown supported by two crows. "Whose banner is that?" Sam asked. Xhondo only shrugged.

It would appear that the Iron Born have raided and pillaged with their base being from someplace close to Oldtown ---- the Arbor, maybe.

In the Forsaken chapter Stonehand says to Damphair ----

Quote

We are going back to sea. The Redwyne fleet creeps toward us. The winds have been against them round Dorne, but they’re finally near enough to have emboldened the old women in Oldtown , so now Leyton Hightower’s sons move down the Whispering Sound in hopes of catching us in the rear.

Pray tell, how do Euron’s Ironborn know that the Redwyne fleet has left Dragonstone since it is in that same FfC Sam chapter that “the best we can do is guard the sound and wait for the bitch queen to let Lord Paxter off his leash ?

Damn ravens have been flapping around carrying messages again, I guess.

In the epilogue of DwD it is revealed that the bitch queen did indeed let Lord Paxter of his leash ---  Lord Paxter Redwyne, lord admiral and master of ships presently sailing his fleet around Dorne to deal with Euron Greyjoy’s Ironmen.

What is the deal? Vic and his 49 remaining ships are somewhere near Slaver’s Bay (Barristain and Tyrion chapters come into play). Euron and his unknown number of ships are floating around somewhere near the Arbor.

Pulling in other loose ends ---- Waters has left KL with the crown’s new ships and possibly set himself up as a pirate ----- the Volantis fleet has been ferrying the Golden Company.

What is megalomaniac blue lipped strung out Euron’s plan?

What is Euron going to do? Defeat the oncoming Redwyne fleet with Hightowers ships in the rear.  Then sail past Dragonstone and attack KL.  I dunna tink so. What is a kracken gonna do on land except whither up and die.

No, no, no, adjusting antennae, bringing out the tinfoil, that kraken Euron summons from the deep thru the use of the holy men tied to the prow of the ships ----  that kraken snatches Euron dressed in his Valyrian steel armor off the deck of his  ship and carries him down to meet his maker.

 

[The Mother of The Others]

7 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The Ironborn have no hope in hell of making any lasting land conquests anywhere in the Reach.  Their entire campaign is laughable. But somehow they just keep sowing havoc from the Shield Islands to the Arbor.

You believe as the great lords do about him, which is why their homes aren't safe.   It's a springboard system he's using that's systematically better than their conventional football wisdom at every turn.  He's never there by the time they react, already on to the next more valuable prize, while their resources scatter and dilute onto useless footings , off balance and away from home.  Each useless stab aims closer to the heart of the Roses.   It's not just marking time until Daenerys arrives, it's more essential to be in westeros doing this or else he would have gone to her.   Which means by the time she lands at the citadel he'll be there waiting to welcome her ashore peacefully to close their deal.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, The Mother of The Others said:

You believe as the great lords do about him, which is why their homes aren't safe.   It's a springboard system he's using that's systematically better than their conventional football wisdom at every turn.  He's never there by the time they react, already on to the next more valuable prize, while their resources scatter and dilute onto useless footings , off balance and away from home.  Each useless stab aims closer to the heart of the Roses.   It's not just marking time until Daenerys arrives, it's more essential to be in westeros doing this or else he would have gone to her.   Which means by the time she lands at the citadel he'll be there waiting to welcome her ashore peacefully to close their deal.

That is true. That's how the ancient Ironborn built their empire. Every time they attacked they would have taken the fertile women, slaying the fighters. Do that a couple of generations and there is nobody left in the coastal regions you raid to oppose you.

Once the Redwyne fleet is destroyed the coastal regions can basically either submit or look forward to the prospect of suffering constant and vicious raids over the next years. It is not that difficult to imagine what they will do. They are pragmatic. If Garlan and Willas retake they Shields they could cut off Euron from the Mander but he could easily retake them if he wanted to (which he doesn't, as we know now).

The Lords of the Reach further in land have little reason to fear Euron but those closer to the Summer Sea do. And that will influence their policies.

But the chances for a deal between Dany and Euron are very slim. He is not there. And she will make meet a lot of men and make a lot of deals long before she comes to Westeros. 

[cpg2016]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

What use would the Faceless Men have for a dragon egg?

It's super valuable?  They can sell it.  What use do they have for gold?  Or anything, really?  

 

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The best candidate there is actually Victarion's dusky woman. Euron needs a knife at Victarion's throat and nobody could do that better than a Faceless Man.

I read an excellent theory that the dusky woman is actually just a woman being warged into by Euron, who is a failed protege of Bloodraven.

[LordImp]

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

What use would the Faceless Men have for a dragon egg?

This depends on the structure of the Faceless men. It could be that their income goes straight to the Iron bank . I dont know what use the FM would have of gold and treasures , so I think it's likely that the FM gives their gold to the IB.

If that's the case then a dragon egg is a good deal as It's one of the most precious things in the world. 

If the Faceless men actually are anti-dragon then it would be great for them to have a egg , especially in this times where Dany hatched petrified eggs. 

With a dragon egg in their pocession they make sure that no one will hatch that egg. It could also be that the FM will try to destroy the egg .

We also have the weaponized dragon egg theory , which suggest that FM can make something close to a nuclear bomb. Though I 'm not a fan of that theory. 

To stretch it a bit the FM can try to hatch their own dragon . 

[Curled Finger]

21 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

It's a metaphor to me that he needs passage through. No, don't think those sphinxes operate a mechanism. They might, but doesn't seem like it from the text.

 

Oh, I know. But the widow's peak, Dornish + Summer Islander parentage, and Doran referencing a Sand Snake being at Oldtown is enough for me. I really don't think George will invent another character in tWoW aside from Alleras in Oldtown to reveal that this new character is actually Sarella and that he "fooled us" with Alleras.

That sourleaf eating dwarf of the Faith with bulbous nose that Brienne meets in Duskendale, who tells her about "a fool being fooled" in Maidenpool, is not confirmed to be the sparrow dwarf with bulbous nose whose head was shopped off for Cersei when some murderers met him on the road to King's Landing. And the likelihood that we'll ever read a confirmaton for that is nill. Still, I don't think the sourleaf eating dwarf with bulbous nose who was a brother and intended to go to King's Landing will suddenly pop up alive in KL after all. Do you?

I agree you could see them as Valyrian sphinxes.

That's what I'm thinking - it's not enough to just own a glass candle. You need someone who shows you how they work or who can work them. Might be that Euron only needs to be taught and can do it himself. If he has sorcerer abilities, he might learn to operate it himself, and then could discard the (half)maester who taught him.

I hope she does, but I think there is a good chance that George will have her exposed. I suspect he needs the exposing of Alleras as Sarella and thereby not getting her chain, though she probably has earned all the links, for another character in the books. It wouldn't surprise me at all, if the maesters discuss another case of a woman who pretended to be a man in order to earn herself a chain a few decades ago, with the reveal that Alleras is Sarella. Lazy Leo reads like a character set up for us to hate, but he still needs to actually do something for us readers to think "you little shit". Betraying that Alleras is a woman would just do the trick, no?

Agreed. Might have to do with the use of glass candles. Oberyn learned magic, I asumme from Marwyn. And Marwyn might have remained in contact with Oberyn and told him of the glass candles burning. Sending a Sand Snake to Marwyn under the pretext of earning her chain to use the candle to get present day info on what's happening at some places in the world and update Oberyn (before his death) and then Doran would help... If Sarella saw the events in Mereen with Quentyn in the glass candle, then it wouldn't take months for Doran to learn of his son's death by Dany's dragons.

Lots to really dislike about Leo Tyrell.   I'll be honest, I do think Alleras is Sarella and the dwarfs are the one in the same.  I'm with you on Sarella being "outed".  But what is the purpose?  She seems to know precisely what she's doing.  I wonder if that hasn't been her plan all along to some unknown end.   She's a sand snake, there is some element of vengeance or violent feminism in the goal here.   In your scenario of Oberyn and Marwyn being complicit in training Sarella I suppose her training would be the goal.   Intel.   But she's such an interesting character--certainly more so than her half sisters--I hope there is a larger role for a clever gender bending near maester beyond the Citadel. 

[sweetsunray]

6 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

She's a sand snake, there is some element of vengeance or violent feminism in the goal here. 

It doesn't have to be violent femmes or vengeance. She was already on a mission by Oberyn it seems, before he died. While the other Sand Snakes swear to work for Doran "for Oberyn", it seems to me that Sarella never needed any chasticing and redirecting in that regard.

I advize you to read interactions with Haldon, as if the halfmaester was a woman. The intro conversation about brothels and how maesters don't need a cock becomes very interesting (maesters do require to have a "cock" or they're not allowed to learn at the Citadel), especially because Haldon then decides that Ser Rolly must double ride with Tyrion (and thus no double riding with Haldon). At the GC both JonCon and Haldon are greeted by the same man. He calls JonCon a "bugger" and Haldon a "cunt". We know that JonCon is gay and a "bugger" is an obsenity for someone who has sex with another man. And yes, "cunt" can be used as obsenity to men as well, but it still is slang for a vagina. So the guy uses the correct obsenity for JonCon, and imo also for Haldon.

There is a scene that would seem to negate this: in one chapter Haldon supposedly waters at the stern of the boat, just like Tyrion and Ser Rolly did earlier that day. But here's the catch: While Tyrion waters together with Ser Rolly and they have a moment of grandness and competition about it, Tyrion's wholly engrossed with his writing about dragons on deck. He's not even paying much attention to Haldon at the stern, until Haldon makes him attentive on what "he" is supposedly doing. Tyrion quips he might join in. But Haldon instantly says something threatening and distracting to keep Tyrion away. This could be seen as Haldon merely pretending to pee, wanting Tyrion to note he's supposedly peeing, but equally makes sure that Tyrion never comes close in that moment. We get a description of the sun reflected on the river's water that is rippling or breaking because of wind. But no actual urine stream is described. What will men learn, when peeing? To not pee against the wind, and it appears that's what Haldon is doing. We know that Haldon supposedly laces up, but no sight of a cock is mentioned.

How did Arya's secret get discovered by Gendry and most assuredly Jaquen? Because she snuck off all the time to pee and was never seen peeing like a guy. I'd say we can read Haldon's scene as a mummery to "prove" to Tyrion that Haldon is a man, without ever having to show a cock she doesn't have.

Haldon is always clean shaven, and ascetic looking. This is also already an older person (if a woman, beyond menopause). An ascetic looking woman can indeed appear like an ascetic man if they avoid softening looks. Think of the gender bending movie Albert Nobbs with Glenn Close and Janet McTeer. Binding the long hair into a Mulan like knot would work. (what and who was Mulan again?)

As far as maestering goes, Haldon is up there with Luwin (in skill) and is also sceptical of magic and legends (so no Qyburn). He'd be totally an ideal maester as the anti-magic faction of the Citadel would have it. And yet, he supposedly never got his chain. We can rule out failing like the original Pate for a reason. We can rule out Haldon being like Qyburn. We can rule out a family fallen into disgrace too, because the Citadel doesn't care about that (they drop their last names and foreswear land anyway). And Haldon loves his books and his languages and history and teaching, etc. So, it sure wasn't motivation. Even the glass candle ritual is just a vigil in the darkness, and more symbolic. If an acolyte fails to make a glass candle work, he isn't refused a chain. That only leaves one option - Haldon's a woman and got caught at her gender-bending in the Citadel, and wasn't allowed a chain.

[Lion of the West]

On 2017-06-23 at 8:04 PM, Lord Varys said:

There are hints that she did change in Kevan's Epilogue. At least her approach, not necessarily her goals. She did break during the walk. She was brought low and made to crawl like an animal. She felt and was completely helpless. She can recover from that but not around the people in KL. They have seen her shame, and they will all laugh about her behind her back. Even Qyburn might smirk.

Like I said, I would love for Cersei to have been de-fanged but odds are that she is not even if her methods may have changed. As for people laughing at her I would like to have broken Cersei, but like I said, I have a firm opinion that she's not going to be run out of town or pushed into irrelevance.

On 2017-06-23 at 8:04 PM, Lord Varys said:

Those are very bad odds in light of the fact that the books simply do not set up Mace as an idiot. And even if he was an idiot he has tens of thousands of men while Cersei has a few hundred. And they all know what happened to her. Ser Robert Strong is just one man. He certainly could take out all her enemies but how's that going to get her back into power? If Ser Robert were to kill Mace and Randyll then their lieutenants would take over and avenge their leaders. They would not bend the knee to Cersei.

I don't expect Mace to bow down to Lady Lannister but I do exepct the war with Euron and with Aegon to drain many Tyrell soldiers out from the capital and cast doubts on the loyalty of almost as many as are lost in battle. So in essence I do expect that Mace will in his foolishness not use this oppertunity to push Cersei out of King Tommen's inner circle but let her remain to spring up again. Remember that King Tommen has not seen his mother's shame and so would be under her influence and could command men with royal authority at a time when Mace Tyrell is not at the height of his strength. 

So in essence I expect Cersei to keep it low right now and when enough Tyrell men have left the capital in Mace's confidence that Cersei is not a threat, then she springs with a royal order to the Gold Cloaks and the Kingsguard to start taking Cersei' enemies into captivity or kill them outright.

On 2017-06-23 at 8:04 PM, Lord Varys said:

If George wanted Cersei to be in a position of power he would have written the story differently. He could have left a Lannister army back in KL, he could have made it so that Cersei's intrigue against Margaery actually worked the way it was supposed to, etc. 

He could have done that, but only if he wanted Cersei to act in the way that she's had so far and violently drive the Tyrells out of court and straight into some pretender's arms. I think that GRRM has an entirely plot line in store for the Tyrells.

On 2017-06-23 at 8:04 PM, Lord Varys said:

Nobody in KL is going to follow Cersei. She might be able to ruin the West, since the people there are bound to follow the Lords of Casterly Rock but the Kingslanders still hate the Lannisters thanks to Lord Tywin's sack. If Cersei tried to get herself into power she would quickly end as Maegor the Cruel - perhaps on the Iron Throne, but only with a few irrelevant lordlings around her who cannot really help to cling to that power.

They might not follow Cersei, but they may well follow King Tommen, and Tommen is nothing but a tool in Cersei's hands.

On 2017-06-23 at 8:04 PM, Lord Varys said:

And again - Mace Tyrell must hate Cersei. Right now pretty much nothing is stopping him from taking his men, butcher all the Redcloaks in the Red Keep, take Maegor's Holdfast, and kill Cersei with his own hands. He could do that. There is nobody who could stop him. And Cersei must know this. Ser Robert is just one man. He might stand against a dozen or perhaps even against a score but not against hundreds of men.

Mace could if Mace wasn't an idiot and if there were not plenty of pretenders around in the realm that makes the Lannnisters a secondary threat, and almost broken, threat to the Tyrell ambitions. As far as we know Mace could well think that Cersei is taken care of and that she's not a threat only for her to use her influence with Tommen and the Gold Cloaks to spring back from nowhere and strike.

[Lord Varys]

17 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

Like I said, I would love for Cersei to have been de-fanged but odds are that she is not even if her methods may have changed. As for people laughing at her I would like to have broken Cersei, but like I said, I have a firm opinion that she's not going to be run out of town or pushed into irrelevance.

Well, if you have nothing but your firm opinion to talk about there is nothing to talk about. You have to show how you think Cersei could regain power and keep it. 

17 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

I don't expect Mace to bow down to Lady Lannister but I do exepct the war with Euron and with Aegon to drain many Tyrell soldiers out from the capital and cast doubts on the loyalty of almost as many as are lost in battle. So in essence I do expect that Mace will in his foolishness not use this oppertunity to push Cersei out of King Tommen's inner circle but let her remain to spring up again. Remember that King Tommen has not seen his mother's shame and so would be under her influence and could command men with royal authority at a time when Mace Tyrell is not at the height of his strength. 

There is no reason to believe that Mace will send any Tyrell men away from the capital to deal with Euron. The Tyrells have enough men and resources to fight a war at two or even three fronts. They are not the Northmen or the Riverlords, after all. If Mace and Tarly felt that the Ironborn were a threat so strong that they needed to send some of the men they have in the Crownlands right now down into the Reach they would have done so in AFfC or ADwD.

Sure, there is a chance that their assessment of the danger Euron poses is going to change after the Redwyne fleet is destroyed but we don't know when that's going to happen in regards to the time line nor when they will learn what has transpired down there.

Aegon has only about 10,000 men (if all the Golden Company gets to Storm's End in time), and a bunch of Stormlanders. If the Tyrell army attacks him before at least one of the Dornish armies have joined him he isn't that big of threat. At least not insofar as the size of his army is concerned.

Now, size is not everything. If a Tyrell army marches against Aegon and is defeated - and remember Mace has 30,000-40,000 men in KL - then this will have an effect on these people. But it is not going to necessarily mark his end (assuming he himself is not killed in battle or captured, of course). 

Also keep in mind that Mace's end is going to be the same as King Tommen's end because Aegon will then come for the Iron Throne. The Tyrell men in KL are the last army King Tommen has to defend his throne and if they are defeated so is he.

Now, there is a chance that Cersei might remain in the capital until shortly before Aegon takes the city, and there is chance that she might end up in charge of the city sort of by default because Tarly and Mace and many other Tyrell lords defect to Aegon or are captured/killed by the Golden Company in battle but that would then be a very short Lannister regime. The last breath, so to speak, before she is either killed, captured, or able to flee.

King Tommen himself is completely irrelevant in all this because it is reinforced again and again that nobody cares about what the boy thinks or does. Only fools like Emmon Frey care about his decrees. Cersei and Jaime both kept him very effectively out of the public eye, and Kevan continued that practice during his short reign as Lord Regent. It seems Tommen never even sat the Iron Throne throughout his entire reign.

We also know that the power structures in the capital are completely out of Cersei's hand. The new Lord Commander of the City Watch is one Humphrey Waters Cersei doesn't even know by name. She cannot trust him. In addition, we also know that Mace has added quite a few of his own men to the City Watch, making it very unlikely that they will turn against him.

Cersei could get power again in some sort of power vacuum, but it is very unlikely that this is going to happen because in such a scenario the Faith is very likely to step in as the new power to restore order in the capital. The High Septon has the moral authority to do so as well as the strength. It is very unlikely that the City Watch would fight against the Faith Militant. Sure, they might not be able to take the Red Keep but they don't have to to become the de facto rulers of the city.

And quite honestly, Tyrell (or Reach) power in the capital is not unlikely to go away before Aegon takes possession of the city since it is very unlikely that Mace is going to send all his men or nearly all his men against Aegon. He does not need 30,000-40,000 men to defeat 10,000 sellswords. It is more likely that he will send, say, 15,000-20,000 men against Aegon while keeping the remainder of his forces in the city to ensure the High Septon behaves and Tyrell power at court is not undermined in his absence. Assuming he is marching against Aegon himself and not just sending Tarly.

17 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

So in essence I expect Cersei to keep it low right now and when enough Tyrell men have left the capital in Mace's confidence that Cersei is not a threat, then she springs with a royal order to the Gold Cloaks and the Kingsguard to start taking Cersei' enemies into captivity or kill them outright.

That wouldn't work for the reasons cited above. Cersei doesn't have the men to do something like that nor is it likely that any such men could be provoked by her by any means imaginable to openly turn against the Tyrells. Even if Mace for some reason left the city with all his men, leaving only a core contingent back in the city that is - for some strange reason - outnumbered by Cersei's people they would all know that Mace Tyrell would return after his victory over Aegon and kill them all if they did something as stupid as you suggest. Now, if Mace and the Tyrell army lost the people would also not do what you suggest because they would know that King Tommen's reign is over and Prince Aegon will be king soon. They would instead open the gates to welcome him, perhaps even arresting or killing Tommen and Cersei for him to show their devotion. King's Landing is still very much a Targaryen city.

17 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

He could have done that, but only if he wanted Cersei to act in the way that she's had so far and violently drive the Tyrells out of court and straight into some pretender's arms. I think that GRRM has an entirely plot line in store for the Tyrells.

Sure, but those are not mutually exclusive. There are a lot of Tyrells, after all. Margaery, Mace, and Loras are all expendable.

Cersei actually claiming any meaningful power in the situation she is in right now goes completely against the established facts. She has no army, no longer a great reputation, and no reason to expect that anybody would come to bring her help from the outside. And she has every reason to believe that Tyrion and the Tyrells and whoever else hides in the walls and is plotting against her will take out her and Tommen next. That is the main reason why she is not likely going to stay in the city for long. She knows she is not safe there.

17 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

Mace could if Mace wasn't an idiot and if there were not plenty of pretenders around in the realm that makes the Lannnisters a secondary threat, and almost broken, threat to the Tyrell ambitions. As far as we know Mace could well think that Cersei is taken care of and that she's not a threat only for her to use her influence with Tommen and the Gold Cloaks to spring back from nowhere and strike.

Why should Mace not want to take care of Cersei himself? He has a lot of men in the castle, and even more in the city. Why not use those men to actual take possession of the entire castle? Then he will take care of Cersei, personally. Either by killing her outright or by having his own men guard her now. 

[cpg2016]

On 6/26/2017 at 1:11 PM, Lord Varys said:

Cersei actually claiming any meaningful power in the situation she is in right now goes completely against the established facts. She has no army, no longer a great reputation, and no reason to expect that anybody would come to bring her help from the outside. And she has every reason to believe that Tyrion and the Tyrells and whoever else hides in the walls and is plotting against her will take out her and Tommen next. That is the main reason why she is not likely going to stay in the city for long. She knows she is not safe there.

To be clear, the Tyrells aren't plotting against Tommen.  They are barely plotting against Cersei, if at all.  They just want more power and influence at court, and Cersei has (foolishly) given all of that to her own toadies and courtiers.

Quote

There is no reason to believe that Mace will send any Tyrell men away from the capital to deal with Euron. The Tyrells have enough men and resources to fight a war at two or even three fronts. 

I don't disagree with you in general, but this is debatable.  Right now, the Tyrells are maintaining an active front in the Riverlands and at Storm's End, and have been routed at the Shield Islands.

They clearly don't have the ships to fight Euron, and only maybe the men (Willas is gathering men, but we don't know if it's enough.  Presumably it is).  But the Reach has suffered heavy casualties as well.  Renly claims to have 100,000 foot.  Even if he's exaggerating, lets say he's got 75,000 at Bitterbridge.  When Tarly gets there after Renly's murder, he puts "many" to death, especially Florents.  That's not all, or even most, but it's got to be a significant part of that host.  Plus whatever losses at the Blackwater, and to the various smaller campaigns, and you're looking at a significant number of Reachmen dead or out of commission.  Not even a majority, surely, or maybe not even close... but certainly a sizable fraction.  So while they certainly used to have the strength to take on two or three enemies at once, they're pretty clearly stretched thin now.  

They need to hold the Riverlands against guerrillas, take Storm's End, fight the Golden Company, and retake the Shield Islands.  And, presumably, leave a significant garrison in Kings Landing to make sure Margaery gets out of those charges.  That is a tough lift, even without some of their strength having been bled off.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, cpg2016 said:

To be clear, the Tyrells aren't plotting against Tommen.  They are barely plotting against Cersei, if at all.  They just want more power and influence at court, and Cersei has (foolishly) given all of that to her own toadies and courtiers.

I was describing Cersei's opinions and state of mind here. She thinks she has good reason to believe that the Tyrells are plotting against her. And Kevan was coming to share her view in the end. He finally understands Mace's ambitions in the Epilogue. And right now we can be pretty sure that Mace wants to see Cersei dead for what she did to both Loras and Margaery. He is not going to forget or forgive that.

1 hour ago, cpg2016 said:

I don't disagree with you in general, but this is debatable.  Right now, the Tyrells are maintaining an active front in the Riverlands and at Storm's End, and have been routed at the Shield Islands.

Nope, they aren't the Riverlands at all. They were at Maidenpool but they are no longer there. A small force is still at Storm's End, yes, under the command of Lord Mathis Rowan. But they were not routed at the Shield Islands. The men there were just defeated before they could mount an effective counterattack. It is not that a standing Tyrell army of thousands of men was defeated there.

1 hour ago, cpg2016 said:

They clearly don't have the ships to fight Euron, and only maybe the men (Willas is gathering men, but we don't know if it's enough.  Presumably it is).  But the Reach has suffered heavy casualties as well.  Renly claims to have 100,000 foot.  Even if he's exaggerating, lets say he's got 75,000 at Bitterbridge.  When Tarly gets there after Renly's murder, he puts "many" to death, especially Florents.  That's not all, or even most, but it's got to be a significant part of that host.  Plus whatever losses at the Blackwater, and to the various smaller campaigns, and you're looking at a significant number of Reachmen dead or out of commission.  Not even a majority, surely, or maybe not even close... but certainly a sizable fraction.  So while they certainly used to have the strength to take on two or three enemies at once, they're pretty clearly stretched thin now.  

Garlan took half of the men his father had brought to KL with him when he left in AFfC. Those would be 30,000-40,000 men, depending how many men Mace had originally. In addition to the Reach contingent in Renly's army Mace also had 10,000 men in reserve back at Highgarden.

The Florents don't have many men and it is quite unlikely that Tarly butchered thousands of men. Only men whose lords had joined Stannis and whose followers were pushing the men at Bitterbridge to join Stannis, too.

There don't seem to have many casualties at the Blackwater on the side of the Tyrells or Tywin's men because of the effect Renly's ghost had on most of Stannis' men. Some would have died in the battle at Duskendale but the casualties on the side of the victors there should have been in the hundreds not in the thousands (or perhaps only between 1,000-2,000).

We also know that the Hightowers didn't send any men to Renly or Joffrey/Tommen, meaning that a large portion of the strength of the Reach is still untapped. Those men are drafted right now, of course, but those are additional armies, not men from the other armies. 

Once the Redwyne fleet is destroyed the Reach will be in trouble but not because they don't have the men to fight of the Ironborn but because they have no chance to carry the war to them. And they don't know where they will strike next. Ships are much more mobile than horses.

1 hour ago, cpg2016 said:

They need to hold the Riverlands against guerrillas, take Storm's End, fight the Golden Company, and retake the Shield Islands.  And, presumably, leave a significant garrison in Kings Landing to make sure Margaery gets out of those charges.  That is a tough lift, even without some of their strength having been bled off.

Again, they have no men in the Riverlands. Sure, dealing with Aegon, holding KL, retake the Shield Islands is going to put a lot of strain on them. They can't do much more, but they are far from spent.

[Free Northman Reborn]

I think a large part of Euron's purpose is to weaken the overpowered Reach, and together with Aegon - and probably a nice dose of pestillence (likely the Grey Plague which is the much faster acting cousin of Greyscale) - bring it to its knees.

So I expect the Reach's fleet to be lost to Euron's voodoo kraken-storm in the opening stages of Winds, I expect Aegon to kill Mace at the battle of Storms End, and I expect the Dornish to lay waste to some more Tyrell armies once they stream down from the Prince's Pass and the Boneway.

I expect the Reach to be pretty devestated by the time Dany arrives.

 

[cpg2016]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Nope, they aren't the Riverlands at all. They were at Maidenpool but they are no longer there. A small force is still at Storm's End, yes, under the command of Lord Mathis Rowan. But they were not routed at the Shield Islands. The men there were just defeated before they could mount an effective counterattack. It is not that a standing Tyrell army of thousands of men was defeated there.

Maidenpool is in the Riverlands.  I was referring to their previous dispositions.  They were previously holding three positions; Brightwater Keep, Maidenpool, and Storm's end (or besieging two of them, I suppose).  That was before there was an active threat.  Now they actually have thousands of enemies to fight, instead of a few hundred men in a castle or in the Brotherhood.  I think it's clear they're going to abandon Maidenpool and focus on Aegon and Euron, and probably be very unsuccessful at both (can't be sure, but it seems like Euron is going to sack Oldtown, and likely that Aegon will take Kings Landing before the giant Chekhov's gun of the wildfire caches goes off when Dany arrives with her dragons).

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The Florents don't have many men and it is quite unlikely that Tarly butchered thousands of men. Only men whose lords had joined Stannis and whose followers were pushing the men at Bitterbridge to join Stannis, too.

Well I suppose it's what you define as "many".  Renly claims there are 100,000 men following him.  Even if this is an exaggeration, there must be something like 70-80,000.  So what is many?  I don't think the text would consider a few hundred men as "many", so I'm assuming it's around 10,000, maybe a touch more.  We know Tarly is ruthless enough to do it.

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Again, they have no men in the Riverlands. Sure, dealing with Aegon, holding KL, retake the Shield Islands is going to put a lot of strain on them. They can't do much more, but they are far from spent.

Well they don't, now that Tarly's host is back in Kings Landing.  But they are the principal peacekeepers for the realm, as the Lannisters have very few men left to fight with.  I guess the question is whether they are going to go back to peacekeeping in the Riverlands or resume the siege of Storm's End.  If they abandon their other pursuits, they have plenty of men.  But they need a few thousand to hold down Storm's End.  Or, now that it's fallen, I guess not.  So maybe they need 30,000 to fight off the Golden Company, whose men are considered better trained on average and hold several castles to boot.  Garlan took a further 30,000ish with him.  That's 60,000.  If the Tyrells can raise 80,000 total, then I think that's close to a full accounting.  Between the men butchered at Bitterbridge, the losses on the Shield Islands (not significant, but probably a couple thousand), any random men who have succumbed to illness or bandits or desertions... I can see that being close to 20,000 men lost or incapacitated.

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

Maidenpool is in the Riverlands.  I was referring to their previous dispositions.  They were previously holding three positions; Brightwater Keep, Maidenpool, and Storm's end (or besieging two of them, I suppose).  That was before there was an active threat.  Now they actually have thousands of enemies to fight, instead of a few hundred men in a castle or in the Brotherhood.  I think it's clear they're going to abandon Maidenpool and focus on Aegon and Euron, and probably be very unsuccessful at both (can't be sure, but it seems like Euron is going to sack Oldtown, and likely that Aegon will take Kings Landing before the giant Chekhov's gun of the wildfire caches goes off when Dany arrives with her dragons).

Maidenpool was already abandoned when Tarly returned to KL in ADwD.

Euron could try to sack Oldtown but if he does that it will most likely be the beginning of his end. There lives hundreds of thousands of people in Oldtown, and Lord Hightower has not sent none of his men away to war. Euron would likely lose thousands of men if he tried to sack Oldtown. He could gain a lot of wealth in the process but the price should be too high.

The Arbor is much closer, as wealthy or nearly as wealthy as Oldtown, and completely at his mercy should he destroy the Redwyne fleet.

There is no longer any wildfire hidden at any prominent locations in KL. The caches beneath the Dragonpit, the Great Sept, and elsewhere have been found and used by Tyrion in his own wildfire plot. There might be others and perhaps they will ignite eventually, perhaps not, but even if they do they are not necessarily going to burn down the entire city.

2 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

Well I suppose it's what you define as "many".  Renly claims there are 100,000 men following him.  Even if this is an exaggeration, there must be something like 70-80,000.  So what is many?  I don't think the text would consider a few hundred men as "many", so I'm assuming it's around 10,000, maybe a touch more.  We know Tarly is ruthless enough to do it.

The talk about those executions were just rumors Varys told Tyrion. We don't know what actually happened but the idea that Tarly would have killed thousands of Reach men (or Stormlanders) without anybody ever mentioning this is a huge stretch. It would have come too fighting if that had happened. Keep in mind that those men all had weapons of their own.

I also doubt that Tarly killed common men. It is more likely that he made an example of some Florent retainers and vassals. The commoners usually don't care for whom they fight. We see a similar thing with the Karstark levies. It is enough for Stannis to punish their leaders, he does not have to kill them.

Also note that Stannis claims the Florents can field only about 2,000 men. And not all of them were at Bitterbridge. Some are at home and the bulk of them was apparently with Lord Alester.

2 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

Well they don't, now that Tarly's host is back in Kings Landing.  But they are the principal peacekeepers for the realm, as the Lannisters have very few men left to fight with.  I guess the question is whether they are going to go back to peacekeeping in the Riverlands or resume the siege of Storm's End.  If they abandon their other pursuits, they have plenty of men.  But they need a few thousand to hold down Storm's End.  Or, now that it's fallen, I guess not.  So maybe they need 30,000 to fight off the Golden Company, whose men are considered better trained on average and hold several castles to boot.  Garlan took a further 30,000ish with him.  That's 60,000.  If the Tyrells can raise 80,000 total, then I think that's close to a full accounting.  Between the men butchered at Bitterbridge, the losses on the Shield Islands (not significant, but probably a couple thousand), any random men who have succumbed to illness or bandits or desertions... I can see that being close to 20,000 men lost or incapacitated.

Mace has right now 30,000-40,000 men with him in KL, and Garlan took about the same number back in the Reach. But that's not the entire strength. The Reach can field about 100,000 men in total. There are still some untapped reserves. I think it should be closer to 30,000 for both Mace and Garlan which would mean they would still have a potential of additional 40,000 men left.

I expect Mace to send either half or two thirds of his forces against Aegon at Storm's End and keep the remainder in the city to keep the peace there.

Garlan and Willas are raising additional men and are building ships to retake the Shields while Lord Leyton is also raising men in his lands.

The overall impression is that the Lords of the Reach will be occupied a lot in the near future, which is going to make it impossible for them to interfere much with the situation in KL. Mace can only use the men he has against Aegon. If he fails he won't get any support.

The only exception there might be some of those 'friends in the Reach' the Peakes in the Golden Company claim to have. Those - perhaps lords like Orton Merryweather and Titus Peake - might declare for and join Aegon at Storm's End. But they are no likely to bring huge armies.

[cpg2016]

15 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Maidenpool was already abandoned when Tarly returned to KL in ADwD.

Euron could try to sack Oldtown but if he does that it will most likely be the beginning of his end. There lives hundreds of thousands of people in Oldtown, and Lord Hightower has not sent none of his men away to war. Euron would likely lose thousands of men if he tried to sack Oldtown. He could gain a lot of wealth in the process but the price should be too high.

The Arbor is much closer, as wealthy or nearly as wealthy as Oldtown, and completely at his mercy should he destroy the Redwyne fleet.

There is no longer any wildfire hidden at any prominent locations in KL. The caches beneath the Dragonpit, the Great Sept, and elsewhere have been found and used by Tyrion in his own wildfire plot. There might be others and perhaps they will ignite eventually, perhaps not, but even if they do they are not necessarily going to burn down the entire city.

Well Maidenpool IS abandoned when Tarly goes back.  That is the moment it is abandoned.

And how do you know Hightower hasn't sent men to war?  Tyrell raised their levies, it stands to reason that SOME of the strength of House Tyrell went with them.  You can't get away with not sending men, as Barbrey Dustin makes clear.

He's already conquered some of the smaller outlying islands in the Arbor as of WoW.

And the other wildfire pots have NOT been found, sir.  I believe 300 of them were found.  That is not even close to the number that were placed, which is apparently thousands.  "Vast" quantities were produced, and while much of it was found, what if 10% remains?  Seeing how destructive it is, it might only take a couple hundred jars to start a fire that will burn down the city.

19 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The talk about those executions were just rumors Varys told Tyrion. We don't know what actually happened but the idea that Tarly would have killed thousands of Reach men (or Stormlanders) without anybody ever mentioning this is a huge stretch. It would have come too fighting if that had happened. Keep in mind that those men all had weapons of their own.

Except they DO mention it!  It is mentioned, as you say, you just are choosing to ignore it.  They have weapons, but they might be surprised.  Thousands of Robb's men are ambushed and slaughtered and barely kill what?  A couple dozen Frey soldiers? During the Red Wedding. Those men had weapons too.

If no one had ever mentioned it then I wouldn't bring it up either.  But Varys has no reason to lie and no one after has any reason to mention it, so why doubt his word?  Maybe Renly only had 1,000 soldiers following him.  He says 100,000 but why take anyone's word for anything?  Skepticism is all well and good, but until we have a reason to believe otherwise, we have to believe what we're told.  Tarly is more than ruthless enough to kill thousands, is enough of a martinet to recognize the military necessity, and has the motive; lots of Stormlands lords (and some reach lords) go over to Stannis and their soldiers are a liability, just like how Roose is always sending out the troops of lords he's uncertain of or aren't his own sworn swords.

24 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Mace has right now 30,000-40,000 men with him in KL, and Garlan took about the same number back in the Reach. But that's not the entire strength. The Reach can field about 100,000 men in total. There are still some untapped reserves. I think it should be closer to 30,000 for both Mace and Garlan which would mean they would still have a potential of additional 40,000 men left.

Just out of curiosity, where are you getting these numbers?

 

26 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The only exception there might be some of those 'friends in the Reach' the Peakes in the Golden Company claim to have. Those - perhaps lords like Orton Merryweather and Titus Peake - might declare for and join Aegon at Storm's End. But they are no likely to bring huge armies.

I think it is extremely likely that both the Rowans and Tarlys declare for Aegon.  Just a hunch.  But either way, even a few of the major houses going over is going to be a disaster for Mace.  He has, lets say, 30,000 men.  Aegon has 10,000.  So that's obviously a significant advantage.  But if a couple of houses like the Peakes go over, that balance of power changes VERY quickly.  The Florents could raise about 2,000 men, so lets assume that's typical for most Houses outside the Tyrells and Hightowers (Redwynes seem to have a lot of their strength at sea).  If you lose the Peakes and the Rowans, all of a sudden your looking at something a lot close to parity, especially considering how much superior the Golden Company is than any force currently operating in Westeros and Mace's awfulness as a commander.

In general I agree that the Reach has the ability to fight on two fronts, maybe just barely three if at full strength.  But they're not, and the two fronts they're facing are massive armies, not small groups of bandits or small garrisons they're starving out.