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Southron Ambitions


Victor Newman

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While there are no conclusive evidence to prove that Rickard Stark, Robert Baratheon, and Brandon Stark were actively plotting against their lawful king, I think the clues below supports the idea that there likely was a conspiracy involving those men to usurp the throne.

  1. This is from an interview with George R. R. Martin two years ago.  Please pay attention to what he says starting from 27 minutes in concerning Robert and the other lords perhaps wanting to start defying their ruler.
  2. Third paragraph, on page 60 of A Game of Thrones.     (This is Ned and Catelyn talking)

That brought a bitter twist to Ned's mouth.  "Brandon.  Yes.  Brandon would know what to do.  He always did.  It was all

meant for Brandon.  You, Winterfell, everything.  He was born tobe a King's Hand and a father to queens.  I never asked for this cup to pass to me."

And of course we have the source of the term.  Lady Dustin's revelations to Theon in A Dance with Dragons.

To me, the best evidence is implicit.  A lord who was loyal to his king would go out of his way to ensure that he is in no position to threaten King Aerys. 

The rebellion happened and the story ended up where it is now.  This question is basically only important to those of us who question whether it was correct to execute Brandon and Rickard.  I will say that Brandon deserved his death.  He threatened to kill Rhaegar.  It seems to me that there is a very good chance that Rickard Stark was already guilty of conspiring against his king, which is treason.  For those days and times, that kind of evidence may be good enough to execute Rickard Stark.

 

 

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If we're very generous and give Rickard the benefit of the doubt, we can say he was disloyal to his king and the ruling family.  A good subordinate lord doesn't put himself in a position where he can be strong enough to usurp his king.  Rickard was disloyal and the king would be correct to remove him from power.  I would counsel for Rickard's death but I would advice a silent execution.  Send a faceless man to kill Rickard, Robert, Jon Arryn, Lyanna, and Eddard. 

No question about Brandon.  He should be executed.

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Brandon may have been in on the plan, but I don't think him demanding Rhaegar to come out and die was part of that. Brandon sounds like he was a lot like Robert: fun to party with, promiscuous, and hot-headed. What he did here was borne out of emotion, not careful planning.

Even so, I think Southron Ambitions was more of an older generation's game. Rickard, Hoster, Jon, and Tywin were the major schemers here (though apparently not Quellon, despite him being hyper-competent and having five attractive sons). The Martells were married into the royal family, and the Tyrells didn't have any eligible children at the time. I don't even think Robert knew anything about the conspiracy; he just wanted to marry Lyanna and didn't think that there was any greater plot attached there. 

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36 minutes ago, Lame Lothar Frey said:

If we're very generous and give Rickard the benefit of the doubt, we can say he was disloyal to his king and the ruling family.  A good subordinate lord doesn't put himself in a position where he can be strong enough to usurp his king.  Rickard was disloyal and the king would be correct to remove him from power.  I would counsel for Rickard's death but I would advice a silent execution.  Send a faceless man to kill Rickard, Robert, Jon Arryn, Lyanna, and Eddard. 

No question about Brandon.  He should be executed.

Might as well kill every LP. Just to be safe. Oh and their heirs.

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Those fathers were up to something and it wasn't just finding a happy marriage for their children.  Marriages were used to form alliances.  It's clear to everyone what those marriages would do to upset the status of power in Westeros.  There was no way Aerys could ever allow them to go through.  I will even say that Rhaegar's initial goal was preventing these alliances from forming in the first place but the blockhead grew fond of Lyanna and failed to go through with  it.  What a dissapointment he must have been to dad who was counting on him to help the family.

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1 hour ago, Take Me 2 Your Leader said:

While there are no conclusive evidence to prove that Rickard Stark, Robert Baratheon, and Brandon Stark were actively plotting against their lawful king, I think the clues below supports the idea that there likely was a conspiracy involving those men to usurp the throne.

  1. This is from an interview with George R. R. Martin two years ago.  Please pay attention to what he says starting from 27 minutes in concerning Robert and the other lords perhaps wanting to start defying their ruler.
  2. Third paragraph, on page 60 of A Game of Thrones.     (This is Ned and Catelyn talking)

That brought a bitter twist to Ned's mouth.  "Brandon.  Yes.  Brandon would know what to do.  He always did.  It was all

meant for Brandon.  You, Winterfell, everything.  He was born tobe a King's Hand and a father to queens.  I never asked for this cup to pass to me."

And of course we have the source of the term.  Lady Dustin's revelations to Theon in A Dance with Dragons.

To me, the best evidence is implicit.  A lord who was loyal to his king would go out of his way to ensure that he is in no position to threaten King Aerys. 

The rebellion happened and the story ended up where it is now.  This question is basically only important to those of us who question whether it was correct to execute Brandon and Rickard.  I will say that Brandon deserved his death.  He threatened to kill Rhaegar.  It seems to me that there is a very good chance that Rickard Stark was already guilty of conspiring against his king, which is treason.  For those days and times, that kind of evidence may be good enough to execute Rickard Stark.

 

 

I've seen people quote this as if ned was saying something he wasn't before.  Ned is saying everything he has currently(hand of the king and daughter engaged to crown prince) was meant for Brandon because he was the older brother.

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3 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I've seen people quote this as if ned was saying something he wasn't before.  Ned is saying everything he has currently(hand of the king and daughter engaged to crown prince) was meant for Brandon because he was the older brother.

It could mean that.  It could also mean Rickard had already worked out a deal to make Brandon the Hand for Robert Baratheon. 

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5 minutes ago, 300 H&H Magnum said:

It could mean that.  It could also mean Rickard had already worked out a deal to make Brandon the Hand for Robert Baratheon. 

Accept it obviously doesn't.  Your just twisting words to fit what you want.  If the theory were strong enough on its own you wouldn't need to do that.

If the meaning weren't already obvious(it is) let's just take a minute and note that Brandon would never be appointed anyone's hand of the king.  He is the rash impetuous one, obviously Jon Aryn or Rickard Stark would've been the hand of the king.

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53 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

Brandon may have been in on the plan, but I don't think him demanding Rhaegar to come out and die was part of that. Brandon sounds like he was a lot like Robert: fun to party with, promiscuous, and hot-headed. What he did here was borne out of emotion, not careful planning.

Even so, I think Southron Ambitions was more of an older generation's game. Rickard, Hoster, Jon, and Tywin were the major schemers here (though apparently not Quellon, despite him being hyper-competent and having five attractive sons). The Martells were married into the royal family, and the Tyrells didn't have any eligible children at the time. I don't even think Robert knew anything about the conspiracy; he just wanted to marry Lyanna and didn't think that there was any greater plot attached there. 

There was a rumor that Rhaegar paid for the Tourney at Harrenhall to cover a meeting with the young lords to gain support for deposing Aerys.   It was just a rumor.   However, we do have this little recollection of Jamie's lending some credence to the idea:

Rhaegar had put his hand on Jaime's shoulder. "When this battle's done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but . . . well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken. We shall talk when I return."  AFFC Jamie 1

Your comment about the elders' game made me think of this.   I wonder if it wasn't 2 games after Rhaegar failed to have his council at Harrenhall.   Had that secret meeting taken place the sons could have gone to their fathers and a whole lot of heartache could have been avoided.   Maybe. I think everyone was afraid of Aerys and Rhaegar had a lot of support before he kidnapped that northern girl.   Any hope of a united front against Aerys went right down the drain with that bonehead move.  

Another comment you made got me to wondering about the travels to solicit marriages for Oberyn and Elia.  Then Jamie was sent to assess Lysa for marriage.   But I don't recall anyone else sending children out.  Did Cersei go anywhere?   Wasn't she only like 9 when Aerys quashed the union with Rhaegar?  Did Lyanna and Brandon hit the road together too?  Were Stannis and Robert sent forth?   Cat and Lysa are obviously absent from Harrenhall, which reads like a debutante's ball really.   Curious they weren't there.  

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1 minute ago, Curled Finger said:

 

Another comment you made got me to wondering about the travels to solicit marriages for Oberyn and Elia.  Then Jamie was sent to assess Lysa for marriage.   But I don't recall anyone else sending children out.  Did Cersei go anywhere?   Wasn't she only like 9 when Aerys quashed the union with Rhaegar?  Did Lyanna and Brandon hit the road together too?  Were Stannis and Robert sent forth?   Cat and Lysa are obviously absent from Harrenhall, which reads like a debutante's ball really.   Curious they weren't there.  

Hmm well, we know Cersei was at court until she was fifteen, which was when Jaime became a Kingsguard and Tywin resigned, taking Cersei back to Casterly Rock with him. (This probably also explains how Jaime came to be so close with Tyrion, if the two of them were at CR without Tywin or Cersei for a few years). Ned and and Robert were fostered at the Vale, where I'm guessing Lyanna visited them at least once. Brandon was fostered at Barrowtown, where he met Barbrey. It sounds like Cat and Lysa stayed at Riverrun until they got married, although them not attending the Tourney at Harrenhal is strange, considering that their mother was a Whent. I think GRRM probably didn't come up with the idea of Quellon the Reformer until AFFC, because it's weird that he didn't try to create closer ties with the green lands via marriages and fosterings (although one of Victarion's wives could have been from the green lands, I suppose).

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57 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I've seen people quote this as if ned was saying something he wasn't before.  Ned is saying everything he has currently(hand of the king and daughter engaged to crown prince) was meant for Brandon because he was the older brother.

Couldn't agree more, Southron Ambitions may well be a true conspiracy (my thoughts are that it isn't) but that quote from Ned about what was meant for Brandon isn't proof of it at all.

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1 hour ago, Lucius Lovejoy said:

Couldn't agree more, Southron Ambitions may well be a true conspiracy (my thoughts are that it isn't) but that quote from Ned about what was meant for Brandon isn't proof of it at all.

Yeah, I don't think George came up with Southron Ambitions until later in the series, probably not until after ACOK.

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14 hours ago, Take Me 2 Your Leader said:

While there are no conclusive evidence to prove that Rickard Stark, Robert Baratheon, and Brandon Stark were actively plotting against their lawful king, I think the clues below supports the idea that there likely was a conspiracy involving those men to usurp the throne.

  1. This is from an interview with George R. R. Martin two years ago.  Please pay attention to what he says starting from 27 minutes in concerning Robert and the other lords perhaps wanting to start defying their ruler.
  2. Third paragraph, on page 60 of A Game of Thrones.     (This is Ned and Catelyn talking)

That brought a bitter twist to Ned's mouth.  "Brandon.  Yes.  Brandon would know what to do.  He always did.  It was all

meant for Brandon.  You, Winterfell, everything.  He was born tobe a King's Hand and a father to queens.  I never asked for this cup to pass to me."

And of course we have the source of the term.  Lady Dustin's revelations to Theon in A Dance with Dragons.

To me, the best evidence is implicit.  A lord who was loyal to his king would go out of his way to ensure that he is in no position to threaten King Aerys. 

The rebellion happened and the story ended up where it is now.  This question is basically only important to those of us who question whether it was correct to execute Brandon and Rickard.  I will say that Brandon deserved his death.  He threatened to kill Rhaegar.  It seems to me that there is a very good chance that Rickard Stark was already guilty of conspiring against his king, which is treason.  For those days and times, that kind of evidence may be good enough to execute Rickard Stark.

 

 

Here is something you may find interesting.  It comes from "A Storm of Swords" from a Jaime chapter in which he remembers the day he murdered King Aerys II and his father's men found him in the throne room.  Pages 156-160.

"Shall I proclaim a new king as well?" Crakehall asked, and Jaime read the question plain:  Shall it be your father, or Robert Baratheon, or do you mean to try to make a new dragonking? He thought for a moment of the boy Viserys, fled to dragonstone, and Rhaegar's infant son Aegon, still in Maegor's with his mother.  A new Targaryen king, and my father as Hand.  How the wolves will howl, and the storm lord choke with rage.

If we take this passage on its own in isolation, it may not mean much other than the Starks and the Baratheons hating the Targaryens.  However, when put together with those clues you provided, it does point a finger to the Starks and the Baratheons already plotting to replace the Targaryens with Robert even long before Lyanna was napped.

I believe there was a conspiracy so I don't blame Aerys for executing Brandon and Rickard.  If those men were plotting to remove the Targaryens then they got off easier than what they deserved. 

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IF there was a grand scheme I never saw Jon Arryn as being involved. As far as we know Jon Arryn never even secured a betrothal for his nephew and heir. After many failed attempts to have a family I think Jon Arryn wanted to live the rest of his life in peace willing to let his nephews continue the Arryn line. Then he was asked to foster Bob and Ned and after that Jon Arryn's life was pretty much screwed. 

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24 minutes ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

IF there was a grand scheme I never saw Jon Arryn as being involved. As far as we know Jon Arryn never even secured a betrothal for his nephew and heir. After many failed attempts to have a family I think Jon Arryn wanted to live the rest of his life in peace willing to let his nephews continue the Arryn line. Then he was asked to foster Bob and Ned and after that Jon Arryn's life was pretty much screwed. 

You may be right about Jon Arryn.  It is possible he only got involved because Aerys called for the deaths of Ned and Robert.

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15 hours ago, Lame Lothar Frey said:

If we're very generous and give Rickard the benefit of the doubt, we can say he was disloyal to his king and the ruling family.  A good subordinate lord doesn't put himself in a position where he can be strong enough to usurp his king.  Rickard was disloyal and the king would be correct to remove him from power.  I would counsel for Rickard's death but I would advice a silent execution.  Send a faceless man to kill Rickard, Robert, Jon Arryn, Lyanna, and Eddard. 

No question about Brandon.  He should be executed.

Says who?

Rickard, and all the lords of the realm, had just watched a Targaryen monarch infringe on their traditional rights (Aegon V), the monarchs before had been so focused on preserving their own skins that they had totally ignored every other threat to the realm and let their vassals bleed, in direct contravention of the duty of a liege to a vassal (everyone Bloodraven served for), and then Aerys comes along and is increasingly descending into paranoia, wiping out entire Houses and acting increasingly erratically.  It's no wonder the various Lords want to know that they've got friends in high places in case they are next.

Rickard did nothing disloyal and nothing wrong.  Nor did Brandon.  As many characters say, "words are wind".  Besides which, Aerys ALSO executed all of his companions save one, who did absolutely nothing wrong, and then called for the heads of Ned and Robert, who had nothing to do with the non-existent crime at all.

In other words, Aerys' actions more than justified the Southron Ambitions plot.

2 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

If we take this passage on its own in isolation, it may not mean much other than the Starks and the Baratheons hating the Targaryens.  However, when put together with those clues you provided, it does point a finger to the Starks and the Baratheons already plotting to replace the Targaryens with Robert even long before Lyanna was napped.

No, it does not.  What it proves is that the Starks and Baratheons risked their lives and those of their vassals to unseat a psychotic tyrant who had abused their families.  Putting another Targaryen on the throne basically ensures that the Starks and Baratheons will face reprisals down the line, because after all, they did rebel against the Targaryens (and rightfully so), but also diminishes some of the arguments for why they rebelled in the first place - because Rhaegar and Aerys were vile people who had violated the feudal contract.

And what would make it worse is that the Lannisters, who had taken the least honorable course of any House and sat out the war until it was over, and then murdered a bunch of innocents to boot, would become kingmakers despite risking nothing.

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I would say that the lords who were involved in the 'Sothron ambitions' were Rickard Stark, Hoster Tully and Jon Arryn. These three were defiantly planning something with each other through marriages and fostering, etc. I wouldn't expect Robert and Brandon to be apart of it as they were part of the younger generation and the whole plan would have been exposed if these two had known about it.

Whatever their plan was, it had gone very wrong - they never managed to get the Lannisters into the plot, so Tywin may have sided with the crown if he saw advantages in doing so. They also couldn't count on the iron born or the reach for aid in rebelling, so these two can side either way to. And  Lyanna disappearing with Rhaegar also messed up the marriage with Robert. So really, the scheme wasn't strong enough for an actual rebellion or even for just revelling against Aerys for more power. They didn't have enough power yet, not even with those strong marriage ties. 

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3 minutes ago, WeKnowNothing said:

Whatever their plan was, it had gone very wrong - they never managed to get the Lannisters into the plot, so Tywin may have sided with the crown if he saw advantages in doing so. They also couldn't count on the iron born or the reach for aid in rebelling, so these two can side either way to. And  Lyanna disappearing with Rhaegar also messed up the marriage with Robert. So really, the scheme wasn't strong enough for an actual rebellion or even for just revelling against Aerys for more power. They didn't have enough power yet, not even with those strong marriage ties. 

No... it went perfectly as it was expected to.  The whole coalition was meant to protect its component members from unjust persecution by the Crown.  It wasn't meant to encompass every Lord Paramount.  And that is exactly what happened.  Rhaegar abducted Lyanna, and Aerys killed Rickard and Brandon without a real trial, and then called for the heads of the completely uninvolved Robert and Ned.

And as a result, they overthrew an unjust monarchy.  How could the concept have been more validated?  Not only was the scheme strong enough to foment a rebellion, it was strong enough to win.  They didn't need Tywin; the reason Tywin commits at all is because he knows the war is lost for the throne and wants to get in on the winning side.

And no, Brandon and Robert weren't part of it.  It was Rickard, Hoster, and Jon Arryn.  There is some indication that Tywin was meant to be involved (remember, Jaime was supposed to meet and maybe marry Lysa), but Aerys' tyranny forced their hand early, and Hoster, who seems to have been a cunning political operator, demanded an additional concession to join the active rebellion.

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