NBA 2017: Fleecing the East

[briantw]

So LeBron effectively just sent the entire East into a rebuild.  Pretty incredible.  

[Calibandar]

Paul Millsap to Denver on a 3 year deal, the fleecing continues!

Atlanta has no team btw. Nothing. Teague, Horford, Howard, Korver and Millsap all gone in the last 10 months.

It would be good if Denver could hold onto Gallinari because if they get Millsap but lose him, I'm not sure they got any better.

[Relic]

Atlanta had all the time in the world to trade both Horford and Millsap. It is completely beyond me why they weren't able to trade at least one of those guys for a couple of assets. 

On the Melo front reports are that Anthony is open to being moved to Houston or Cleveland. However the Knicks aren't looking to take back any pricey aging veterans in the deal (for once!), which makes it pretty tough without involving a third team. 

[Rhom]

1 hour ago, Relic said:

Atlanta had all the time in the world to trade both Horford and Millsap. It is completely beyond me why they weren't able to trade at least one of those guys for a couple of assets. 

On the Melo front reports are that Anthony is open to being moved to Houston or Cleveland. However the Knicks aren't looking to take back any pricey aging veterans in the deal (for once!), which makes it pretty tough without involving a third team. 

How do they expect to do that in a league that requires trade salaries to match?

[Relic]

2 hours ago, Rhom said:

How do they expect to do that in a league that requires trade salaries to match?

The league doesn't require that unless one of the teams is at, or over, the cap. Which applies to both Houston and the Cavs and is why there would need to be a third team involved unless the Knicks take back a Ryan Anderson type player.  

[Rhom]

My favorite Wildcat of the pre-Calipari era is joining the Wizards.

Jodie Meeks picked up on the cheap.

Hasn't had much of an NBA career, but he can provide an offensive punch from the bench.  Something the Wizards sorely lacked last year.  

 

[sperry]

Iguodala was bullshitting the whole time. He had better offers to leave, but I never thought a dude with 9 figures career earnings was going to jump at the money somewhere random so I was shocked when he leaked that he was taking meetings elsewhere. He postured to extract the most money he could out of the Warriors by making a show of potentially leaving, but I doubt he ever considered for one second leaving. Livingston is more surprising since he doesn't have those kind of earnings, but apparently that 3/24 is close to what he could have gotten on the open market.

 

As is, there could be some challenge to the Warriors. Minnesota and OKC can both play lineups that put a lot of pressure on the Warriors. LeBron is still LeBron. And there could easily be some deadline deals that make things really interesting.

[Maithanet]

9 minutes ago, sperry said:

As is, there could be some challenge to the Warriors. Minnesota and OKC can both play lineups that put a lot of pressure on the Warriors. LeBron is still LeBron. And there could easily be some deadline deals that make things really interesting.

Good for Iguodala getting paid as close to market value as he could by the team he wanted to play for. 

I think you're really exaggerating how strong Minnesota and OKC are.  There isn't a ton of talent on the Thunder outside of George and Westbrook.  The 2016 Thunder had Durant (who is better than George) and also had more talent around them in Ibaka, and they still lost to the Durantless Warriors.  The 2018 Thunder pose no threat. 

Minnesota is a team that might get there, but they aren't there yet.  The Wolves core has never been to the playoffs and playoff neophytes never do well.  They might be a threat eventually if their young guys show big improvement, but a second round exit is the ceiling for them in 2018. 

The only thing that can stop the Warriors in 2018 is injury.  If we're talking 2019, things could look really different.  But the last best chance of a competitive 2018 season was free agency causing some combination of the Spurs/Cavs getting stronger and the Warriors getting weaker.  That did not happen. 

[Calibandar]

Agreed on Iguadala bullshiting the whole time. He knew what he wanted and was never going to leave.

They desperately want to keep that band together.

The Wizards strike me as a team that looks in trouble this free agency. They swung and missed for Paul George, and Sacramento is really forcing their hand into giving Otto Porter Jr a max deal, which seems way too much for a solid rotation player. Overpay or lose him and have a hole in your roster, that is the option, and it reminds me a lot of Portland's excessive offer for Enes Kanter that forced OKC into a deal they'd rather not have had to do. And for the Wizards, Bogdanovic could be out the door soon as well..

[sperry]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Good for Iguodala getting paid as close to market value as he could by the team he wanted to play for. 

I think you're really exaggerating how strong Minnesota and OKC are.  There isn't a ton of talent on the Thunder outside of George and Westbrook.  The 2016 Thunder had Durant (who is better than George) and also had more talent around them in Ibaka, and they still lost to the Durantless Warriors.  The 2018 Thunder pose no threat. 

Minnesota is a team that might get there, but they aren't there yet.  The Wolves core has never been to the playoffs and playoff neophytes never do well.  They might be a threat eventually if their young guys show big improvement, but a second round exit is the ceiling for them in 2018. 

The only thing that can stop the Warriors in 2018 is injury.  If we're talking 2019, things could look really different.  But the last best chance of a competitive 2018 season was free agency causing some combination of the Spurs/Cavs getting stronger and the Warriors getting weaker.  That did not happen. 

 

And the old T-Wolves core isn't really the core anymore.  Towns, yes, has never been to the playoffs. But the 2nd and 3rd best players on that team have plenty of playoff experience (Teague and Butler). Gibson has plenty of playoff experience. And the Warriors are particularly ill-equipped to deal with Karl Anthony Towns. There is no one on that roster that can guard him. 

 

As for the Thunder/Warriors, that's a random argument, since that very different OKC team was a nightmare matchup for the Warriors, and they choked it away.  This OKC team can play some absolutely absurdly athletic lineups. Westbrook, Roberson, Grant, George, Adams is going to give teams problems. Don't think they can beat the Warriors, but the combo of size, length, and athleticism is problematic for Golden State.

 

The West is just going to be an outrageous bloodbath. Things are going to be interesting if the Warriors end up in a 6 game rock fight with the Thunder in the 2nd round of the playoffs, and end up facing the T-Wolves in the WCF.

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, sperry said:

 

They choked. And the T-Wolves core isn't really the core anymore.  Towns, yes, has never been to the playoffs. But the 2nd and 3rd best players on that team have plenty of playoff experience (Teague and Butler).

 

As for the Thunder/Warriors, that's a random argument, since that very different OKC team was a nightmare matchup for the Warriors, and they choked it away.  This OKC team can play some absolutely absurdly athletic lineups. Westbrook, Roberson, Grant, George, Adams is going to give teams problems. Don't think they can beat the Warriors, but the combo of size, length, and athleticism is problematic for Golden State.

If Teague is the 3rd best player on the Wolves then they are even less threat to the Warriors than I'd thought.  They had better hope Wiggins takes a step forward with more talent around him. 

And OKC was a bad matchup for GSW in 2016.  That was primarily because of the combination of length and athleticism that they could bring to the table with Westbrook/Roberson/Durant/Ibaka/Adams.  The lineup you listed is less problematic than the 2016 iteration.  In addition, GSW has Durant playing the 3, so length/athleticism isn't really an issue anymore.  I don't see how this is even close, it looks like Warriors in 5 to me (which is better than 25 teams could manage, but still nothing special). 

[sperry]

10 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

If Teague is the 3rd best player on the Wolves then they are even less threat to the Warriors than I'd thought.  They had better hope Wiggins takes a step forward with more talent around him. 

And OKC was a bad matchup for GSW in 2016.  That was primarily because of the combination of length and athleticism that they could bring to the table with Westbrook/Roberson/Durant/Ibaka/Adams.  The lineup you listed is less problematic than the 2016 iteration.  In addition, GSW has Durant playing the 3, so length/athleticism isn't really an issue anymore.  I don't see how this is even close, it looks like Warriors in 5 to me (which is better than 25 teams could manage, but still nothing special). 

 

The lineup I listed is significantly more athletic, and better on defense than the previous one. And yes, that lineup is worse, and Golden State is better. Which is why the matchup goes from in 2016 OKC having should have won that series to simply a lineup that presents very real challenges to the Warriors.

 

And what is wrong with Teague being the third best player on your team? Teague is an excellent point guard. If Wiggins takes the leap and stops sucking on defense than that Minnesota team becomes insane. As is, the Warriors have no answer for Towns.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Good for Iguodala getting paid as close to market value as he could by the team he wanted to play for. 

Seconded. He earned it. Bullshit or not, the Warrior's were smart to not let him go.

 

[Maithanet]

11 minutes ago, sperry said:

And what is wrong with Teague being the third best player on your team? Teague is an excellent point guard. If Wiggins takes the leap and stops sucking on defense than that Minnesota team becomes insane. As is, the Warriors have no answer for Towns.

By win shares last year, Teague is tied for the 11th best point guard in the league with Kemba Walker.  Point guard is the deepest position in the league, so that's still pretty good, but if you're not in the top 10 at your position, "excellent" is a real stretch.  Teague is a solid contributor, but you're going to be disappointed if you are looking at him to be a star (and the 3rd banana on a championship team needs to be a star).

EDIT:  If you prefer BPM instead of Win shares, Teague is even lower, 16th in the league amongst PGs with at least 500 minutes, right between Jeremy Lin and Jrue Holiday. 

[sperry]

6 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

By win shares last year, Teague is tied for the 11th best point guard in the league with Kemba Walker.  Point guard is the deepest position in the league, so that's still pretty good, but if you're not in the top 10 at your position, "excellent" is a real stretch.  Teague is a solid contributor, but you're going to be disappointed if you are looking at him to be a star (and the 3rd banana on a championship team needs to be a star).

EDIT:  If you prefer BPM instead of Win shares, Teague is even lower, 16th in the league amongst PGs with at least 500 minutes, right between Jeremy Lin and Jrue Holiday. 

 

Third banana on a championship team does not need to be a star. Spurs have proven this several times over. If your team goes deep with high quality players (which the T-Wolves do), you don't need to do the 3 stars and no depth model.  Towns and Butler are borderline top 10 players, with Towns the potential to become a top 5 guy. Point guard is the deepest position in the league, and Teague is a damn good one.

[Relic]

Wolves need shooting.  In their line-up and off the bench. They currently don't have much of it,  and that severely lowers their potential to compete in the 2018 playoffs. Shame they didn't get JJ. 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

11 hours ago, briantw said:

So LeBron effectively just sent the entire East into a rebuild.  Pretty incredible.  

Not the entire East. Sixers added a piece. Toronto stood pat, and the Celts are still vying for Hayward. I think you could argue that the Pacers and the Hawks were going to have to rebuild anyway.

 

/And the Bulls banished themselves to rebuild land on draft day. That wasn't LeBron's fault.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

14 hours ago, briantw said:

So LeBron effectively just sent the entire East into a rebuild.  Pretty incredible.  

The more I think about this, the more I think this is just another LeBron centric take that doesn't really hold up. I think you can make the argument that Durant is at least as responsible for this arms race in the West. Outside of the George deal, I'm not sure how much Bron-Bron has to do with this.

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

The more I think about this, the more I think this is just another LeBron centric take that doesn't really hold up. I think you can make the argument that Durant is at least as responsible for this arms race in the West. Outside of the George deal, I'm not sure how much Bron-Bron has to do with this.

I agree.  It seems like the East just has a lot more tanking-positive teams than the west does.  And the West just has a lot more well run organizations at the moment.  Teams like the Pelicans and Blazers and Jazz and Suns and Mavericks have all been pretty good pretty recently, and didn't need a 5 year tank job to stock up on talent to do it.  They are interested in being competitive.  Compare that to the East, where it seems like half of the conference is trying to lose for fear of losing out on draft position (or in the case of the Nets, losing out on Boston's draft position).  I mean, how many teams in the East have both a GM and coach who seem to be even competent?  Boston, Toronto, Washington, Miami....is that it? 

[briantw]

45 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

The more I think about this, the more I think this is just another LeBron centric take that doesn't really hold up. I think you can make the argument that Durant is at least as responsible for this arms race in the West. Outside of the George deal, I'm not sure how much Bron-Bron has to do with this.

Well, I know for a fact (or at least as close to a fact as is possible for something like this) that Chicago refused to send Butler to Cleveland.  We also know that Indy's GM took an objectively worse deal to avoid sending George to team up with LeBron.  I also am fairly certain that the main reason Ainge has hesitated to make any splashy deals is because he wants to wait out LeBron, so there's another team that, while they're not rebuilding, has hesitated to make win now moves almost entirely due to LeBron's dominance.  LeBron broke the Hawks as well.  

So I think LeBron is certainly more responsible for this than Durant.  Teams in the East aren't trying to compete against the Warriors, after all.  They first have to get through the Cavs, and none of them have been able to and several have either given up or put contending on hold.