Was Eddard a hostage in the vale?

[St Daga]

A previous discussion with shymaid over on Last Hearth prompted me to discuss an idea that I have had rolling around in my brain for quite a long time, since the first time I actually read A Game of Thrones, actually, so 6ish years ago.
 

shymaid 's comment to me was: "Fostering probably ends at 16 when a man is grown, and he was 18 at the Tourney at Harrenhal. So I wonder how much time he spent at Winterfell and in the Vale during that time". We were discussing Ned's history, and how much time he might have spent in the vale versus in the north at Winterfell.

I have had this tin foil on my head for quite some time, but have never written about it publicly, not because I doubt my own instincts and but because I just expected to be able to join some other discussion on the subject, but I have never really seen any discussion on it, therefore never had the chance. I have searched over several online boards but never really found a discussion that fit my idea on Ned in the vale.

So, hear goes ...

We don't know the details of Ned or Robert's fostering in the Vale. All we know is that Ned was 8 when he went to the Vale, and that he was 18 when he was "down from the Eyrie" for the Harrenhal tourney and that at 19, Ned was still in the Vale when Aerys wrote to Jon Arryn and demanded his and Robert's heads. Jon Arryn called his banner's instead, and the rest is known as Robert's Rebellion (or officially the War of the Usurper). But why was Ned still in the Vale, as well as Robert, when they were both well past the age of fostering?

I have often had a tiny suspicion about Ned's time in the Vale, and maybe Robert's, too!

Maybe the most famous ward in the story is Theon Greyjoy, who is a ward of Ned Stark. But Theon is actually held by Ned, for King Robert Baratheon, to keep Balon Greyjoy from rebelling. In this case, the wardship was used as a means of controlling the parent of the ward, and I think it happens more often in our story, than we might think.

Theon may be called a ward, but he is a hostage to guarantee his fathers good behavior, good behavior to Robert's crown and kingdom, not to Ned. Ned houses Theon, clothes him, teaches him to fight and educates Theon, but Theon is still for all intents and purposes, a prisoner in Winterfell. I have always wondered why Ned took Theon as ward/hostage, and not Robert himself, but maybe this is a Westeros tradition. A tradition that a loyal house to the crown will hold hostages for the crown. It would help off-set the cost directly to the crown, and also show what houses truly had the trust of the King and what houses did not!

Theon is probably 19 at the beginning of the story, old enough for a true ward to be leading a life on his own. Yet, Theon at nineteen is still at Winterfell, because he is a hostage ... and Ned at eighteen/nineteen is still in the Vale because ...

We know from the conversation in Dance, when Jon demands ward/hostages from the wildlings coming through the wall that Old Flint and the Norrey talk about the wards of Winterfell.
 

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"My blood price, he called it," said Jon Snow, "but he will pay."

"Aye, and why not?" Old Flint stomped his cane against the ice. "Wards, we always called them, when Winterfell demanded boys of us, but they were hostages, and none the worse for it."

"None but them whose sires displeased the Kings o' Winter," said The Norrey. "Those came home shorter by a head. So you tell me, boy … if these wildling friends o' yours prove false, do you have the belly to do what needs be done?" ADWD-Jon XI

Two things are very interesting to me in this conversation:

The first part of this conversation that is interesting is that sometimes wards are actually hostages and these ward/hostages have been known to have "come home shorter by a head" when "their sires displeased" a king.

The second part is the question that The Norrey places before Jon Snow. Does Jon have the belly to do what needs to be done?

Let's look at the consequences of a ward/hostage situation, for the holder of the ward/hostage first. It is a great question that The Norrey places before Jon. Does Jon have the belly to do what needs to be done? Further more, when looking at other "wards" in our story, did Ned have the belly to do what needs to be done? What about Jon Arryn?

See where I am going with this?

So the first part of this discussion between Jon, Old Flint, and The Norrey talks about "displeased kings" and wards/hostages coming "home shorter by a head". I think it is safe to say that Aerys fit's the description of a "displeased king" who happened to demand the heads of both Ned and Robert from Jon Arryn. I would guess Aerys was displeased with Rickard if he decided to cook him in his armor!

Combining the two idea's presented to us with the conversation at the Wall, between Jon, Old Flint and The Norrey, we get information on wards that were really hostages, who sometimes came home short a head if their sires ended up displeasing a king.

So, what if Ned was a ward/hostage of the Targaryen Throne, held by Jon Arryn, too keep the North in line? I think Robert might have been, as well. The fact that Aerys demanded Ned and Robert's head's has always seemed odd to me. I could kind of understand demanding Ned's head, after the situation with Rickard and Brandon, but if he wanted to end the Stark line, would Aerys not have demanded Benjen's head too? 

The fact that Aerys demanded Robert's head makes me think Robert could have been a ward/hostage, too. I know that Robert was already considered Lord of Storms End, but all of that is based on the crown allowing him to hold those titles and lands.

I have seen many discussions about whether Ned could have taken Theon's head if Robert demanded it, or if he would have refused. The discussion goes many ways, but most people think Ned would have done what Robert demanded. I am not so sure! Ned did not sign the order to kill Daenerys, after all.

What if Jon Arryn was faced with the same choice, and instead of beheading Ned and Robert, he decided to call his banner's instead. It seems that is the point of our story where people seem to think the rebellion actually began. Not rumor's of discontent among the lords at Harrenhal and the tournament actually being a way to gather many high lords to discuss a change in leadership, not the rumored kidnapping of Lyanna by Rhaegar the Silver Prince, not when Aerys murdered Rickard and Brandon Stark, but when Jon Arryn refused to send Aerys Targaryen the heads of his wards, Eddard Stark and Robert Baratheon.
 
Wards who are much to old to be actual wards in this story. In a SSM GRRM tells us that the age of manhood in Westeros is 16. www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1077

In this SSM, Martin addresses the age of manhood in Westeros. He also addresses how at the age of 16, both Ned and Robert are free to live where they want, and to divide their times between the vale and home, where ever that was. But GRRM is very shifty and smart when answering questions, and I don't know that I think this is the whole answer. 

It just seems a bit odd to me! I mean, Robert should be ruling the Storm Lands by now, not hanging out in the vale. Yes, Ned as a second son might not have as many options, but it seems hard to imagine, as large as the north is, that Rickard could not have found some holdfast for Ned, some service in the north. Or actually fostered Ned in the north, as he did Brandon. 

In our very first chapter, Ned tell's Bran:
 

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Bran had no answer for that. "King Robert has a headsman," he said, uncertainly.

"He does," his father admitted. "As did the Targaryen kings before him. Yet our way is the older way. The blood of the First Men still flows in the veins of the Starks, and we hold to the belief that the man who passes the sentence should swing the sword. If you would take a man's life, you owe it to him to look into his eyes and hear his final words. And if you cannot bear to do that, then perhaps the man does not deserve to die.

"One day, Bran, you will be Robb's bannerman, holding a keep of your own for your brother and your king, and justice will fall to you. When that day comes, you must take no pleasure in the task, but neither must you look away. A ruler who hides behind paid executioners soon forgets what death is." AGOT-Bran I

There is a lot going on in this passage, but it seems clear that Ned intended for Bran, a younger son, to hold a keep and be Robb's bannerman, with justice a duty of the younger son, as well as the Lord. I would think that Rickard probably had the same intention for Eddard, as Ned had for Bran. By the age of 19, which was Ned's age at the beginning of the rebellion, I find it hard to imagine that Rickard would not have wanted to set Eddard up in a keep of his own, a vassal to his father and his brother. If 16 is the age of manhood in Westeros, then why the heck doesn't Ned have a holdfast of his own at the age of 19? Unless something was restricting this. Such as Ned being a hostage of the King and was therefore not allowed to hold land of his own and to remain under the close watch of Jon Arryn in the vale.

We know, I think according to TWOIAF, that Robert had been spending sometime between the vale and Storms End, but was Ned actually splitting his time between the vale and Winterfell? Robert and Ned's situations are different, considering Ned is a second son while Robert was effectively the Lord of Storm's End and Lord Paramount of the Storm Lands on his fathers death. Could that situation of Robert being an actual lord who has inherited change his situation as a ward/hostage? I don't know, but I think it's fair to address that Robert did seem to travel between the Storm Lands and the Vale in the time before the rebellion. But honestly, shouldn't Robert have been living full time at Storm's End, and ruling the Storm Lands? Why did he have to battle his own vassal's when the rebellion started and he called his own banners? Maybe some of those bannermen didn't recognize his authority because they didn't completely respect him as their liege lord because he was a prisoner of the crown? 

I know that doesn't have much to do with Eddard, but I wanted to show some differences between Ned, the second son, and Robert, who was actually already a high lord over one of the separate "kingdoms" or provinces in the realm. Ned, at the time prior to the rebellion was not even his fathers’ direct heir, and that makes his situation a bit different than Robert's. 

We are in Cat's POV when she brings Ned the news of Jon Arryn's death. She says in her thoughts (although I doubt her knowledge and perception quite a bit and have come to question almost everything she thinks she knows) that Jon Arryn was like a second father to Ned and Robert, which Ned neither denies or agrees with. Ned certainly seems upset at Jon Arryn's death and grieves him, and I imagine he did feel a huge connection to the man. We know that Theon, at some point thinks of Ned as his father, too, but has been in the past very conflicted about Lord Eddard and Ice! 

Is it crazy to think of Ned as a hostage of the crown, much like Theon was? In Game, Ned tells Cat that "And from this day on, I want a careful watch kept over Theon Greyjoy. If there is war, we shall have sore need of his father's fleet."AGOT-Eddard IV. Like Jon Arryn might have kept Ned close to have the army of the north ready? Is my pot completely cracked?
 
Robb tried to use Theon to gain Balon Greyjoy's fleet during the War of Five Kings. I actually think Theon would have followed through with that action for Robb, but Balon's treatment of Theon altered how he acted, which lead to a terrible betrayal and the eventual loss of Winterfell and the north for Robb. Ned's father (and brother who had been the heir to Winterfell) was dead, leaving Ned as Lord of Winterfell and Lord Paramount of the North, and able to make his own decisions, which were to call his banners and fight on the side of Jon Arryn. Who knows what might have happened if Rickard had still been alive. I think that Jon Arryn would have been smart enough not to send his bargaining piece (Eddard) away, like Robb did with Theon, if Rickard had still been alive, but sent an envoy with terms. But with Rickard Stark dead, that changed the game. So many parallel's and reverse parallel's in this story, weaved together like a beautiful and complicated tapestry.

One other passage from the story really sticks out to be, and I think it links the idea of Ned as a ward to Theon as a ward, and both of them being hostages is this passage from Dance:

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He did not remember closing his eyes.

… but then somehow he was back at Winterfell again, in the gods-wood looking down upon his father. Lord Eddard seemed much younger this time. His hair was brown, with no hint of grey in it, his head bowed. "… let them grow up close as brothers, with only love between them," he prayed, "and let my lady wife find it in her heart to forgive …"

"Father." Bran's voice was a whisper in the wind, a rustle in the leaves. "Father, it's me. It's Bran. Brandon."

Eddard Stark lifted his head and looked long at the weirwood, frowning, but he did not speak. He cannot see me, Bran realized, despairing. He wanted to reach out and touch him, but all that he could do was watch and listen. I am in the tree. I am inside the heart tree, looking out of its red eyes, but the weirwood cannot talk, so I can' t. Eddard Stark resumed his prayer. Bran felt his eyes fill up with tears. But were they his own tears, or the weirwood's? If I cry, will the tree begin to weep?

The rest of his father's words were drowned out by a sudden clatter of wood on wood. Eddard Stark dissolved, like mist in a morning sun. ADWD-Bran III

 

So this is from the weirwood visions that Bran has in Bloodraven's cave in Dance. It is a passage that has been hotly debated since that book was published. I only want to look at a small part of those visions, the part that I think deals with Ned and Theon and wards/hostages.

In this vision, Ned is praying that someone "grow up as close as brothers". I know many people consider this to be Ned talking about Robb and Jon, and if they need to grow up close as brothers, then there is no way they could actually be brothers (or half-brothers), hence they must be cousins, but ... I have considered that, and at one point thought that is the meaning of this part of the vision, but ... the whole thing doesn't quite click for me.

Part of what doesn't click is the passage "close as brothers". Not withstanding that I think Robb and Jon are actually brothers, the "close as brothers" comment makes me think of Ned and Robert. Ned states several times in the text that he and Robert are "like brothers".

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"We were meant to rule together. If Lyanna had lived, we should have been brothers, bound by blood as well as affection". AGOT-Eddard I

Here is an example of Robert stating that he and Ned are brothers by affection.

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Lord Eddard Stark sat staring at the flame of the candle that burned beside him on the table. For a moment his grief overwhelmed him. He wanted nothing so much as to seek out the godswood, to kneel before the heart tree and pray for the life of Robert Baratheon, who had been more than a brother to him. AGOT-Eddard XIII

Here is Ned's own recollection that Robert was as a brother to him. Robert and Ned being raised together as wards, and becoming close as brothers.
 

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Pyp leaned close. "Jon, I'm sorry. He was your father's friend, wasn't he?"

"They were as close as brothers, once." Jon wondered if Joffrey would keep his father as the King's Hand. AGOT-Jon VII

 

Here is Jon acknowledging that Robert and Ned were close as brothers.

So I tie Robert and Ned being close as brothers because they were raised as wards (and maybe hostages) together in the vale. Although, I find Robert as a hostage less likely than Ned. As a matter of fact, I sometimes wonder if Aerys ever demanded Robert's head at all, mostly based on the quote in Dance from Lord Borrell to Davos, "At the dawn of Rovert's Rebellioin. The Mad King had sent to the Eyrie for Stark's head, but Jon Arryn sent him back defiance." ADWD-Davos I Maybe Jon Arryn decided to lie abou Aerys's actual demands to include Robert's name, or maybe the story changed over time, but it might be that only Ned's head was demanded because only Ned was a hostage, and not Robert. 

So, Theon, is a ward of Winterfell, but is also a hostage. I think that when Ned brought Theon back to Winterfell, he prayed to the old gods, that Theon would become as close as brothers with Robb and Jon, the only two son's that Ned had at that time.  Ned is young enough in this vision that he has no grey hair. Ned has some grey hair at the beginning of our story, but Ned is probably around 34-35 years old. He was 19 at the beginning of Robert's Rebellion, and probably 20 when it ended. The Greyjoy rebellion was probably 9 years before our story started, making Ned probably 25-26ish years old when he brought Theon back to Winterfell. Ned probably had no grey hair at the age of 19-20, and none at the age of 25-26.

**I know people will argue about what this all has to do with Ned asking Cat for forgiveness for and I don't think it's related at all. I think there are two specific parts to the prayer that Bran witnessed, and we don't see the start of the first part of the prayer or the finish of the second part. I think in the vision whatever Ned was asking his "lady wife" Catelyn for forgiveness for had nothing to do with him bringing Theon home (I will save that tinfoil of mine for another day and another thread). That part of Ned's prayer fades out and Bran doesn't hear the complete prayer. I don't think it has anything to do with Ned bringing Jon home because I think Ned already brought Jon home years before this prayer, although it might have to do with something else Eddard got up to during the Greyjoy Rebellion. Of course this is all based on my interpretation that what Bran is seeing in his weirwood vision happened directly after the Greyjoy Rebellion and not directly after Robert's Rebellion**

Wards (who are also hostages) growing up to be close as brothers, fits Robert and Ned, and I think Ned hoped it would fit Theon growing close to Robb and Jon (well, turns out, not so much to Jon).

It surely seems like wards do form strong bonds, for the most part, anyway, with the people who they are fostered with. Based on this theory, placing the heir of a Lord Paramount with another Lord Paramount could backfire on the crown, so that might not be very smart plan. Maybe that is exactly what happened to Aerys, or maybe my theory is botched.

Does rank have anything to do with the way people could be fostered? For instance, if Aerys did place Robert and Ned as hostages, who are both sons of Lord Paramoun'ts, maybe they had to be placed with another Lord Paramount, a person of equal or higher rank than the hostage. It seems unlikely that a hostage would be placed with a person of lesser rank. I would think, if you placed Ned or Robert, as son's of a high lord, into a hostage situation, then only another Lord Paramount might have the ranking to take the heads of such a high ranking hostage. Just spit balling with this, because it is something I have not much considered until recently.

Ned tells us that the Targaryen's kept headsman, so that is a bit of a wrinkle in the theory, unless Jon Arryn was one of Aerys headman. But Ned is also adamant that the man who passes judgement should swing the sword. It could be just the way of the north, but we don't really know how much time Ned spent in the north after the age of 8. I guess Rickard could have taught Ned and Brandon at a young age, and we see that Ned feels like Bran, at 8, is old enough for this lesson and to see a man beheaded. But what if part of Ned's thought process is that someone demanded that Ned himself needed to die, but would not swing the sword himself (Aerys). Ironic, of course, that Ned ended up beheaded by a the demands of a child-king who didn't swing the sword himself.

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Ned had heard enough. "You send hired knives to kill a fourteen-year-old girl and still quibble about honor?" He pushed back his chair and stood. "Do it yourself, Robert. The man who passes the sentence should swing the sword. Look her in the eyes before you kill her. See her tears, hear her last words. You owe her that much at least."

"Gods," the king swore, the word exploding out of him as if he could barely contain his fury. "You mean it, damn you." He reached for the flagon of wine at his elbow, found it empty, and flung it away to shatter against the wall. "I am out of wine and out of patience. Enough of this. Just have it done."

"I will not be part of murder, Robert. Do as you will, but do not ask me to fix my seal to it."

For a moment Robert did not seem to understand what Ned was saying. Defiance was not a dish he tasted often. Slowly his face changed as comprehension came. His eyes narrowed and a flush crept up his neck past the velvet collar. He pointed an angry finger at Ned. "You are the King's Hand, Lord Stark. You will do as I command you, or I'll find me a Hand who will."

"I wish him every success." Ned unfastened the heavy clasp that clutched at the folds of his cloak, the ornate silver hand that was his badge of office. He laid it on the table in front of the king, saddened by the memory of the man who had pinned it on him, the friend he had loved. "I thought you a better man than this, Robert. I thought we had made a nobler king." AGOT-Eddard VIII

 

 

 

This passage is so interesting, because it really is showing Ned that Robert is not the man he remembers or (and when you think back to Robert's acceptance of the murder of Elia and her children) maybe never was. 

In considering this theory, Robert honestly is shocked by Ned's feelings on this subject, how Ned truly believes if Robert wants Daenerys dead, he should do the killing himself. But Ned means it! He means it from the bottom of his soul, one could say. Ned is so passionate about it, he quits his job, on the threat of his own life. It's a big move on Ned's part to defy Robert in this way. Could he feel the way he does, because he once was the child with the shadow of a sword over his head? Like Theon Greyjoy.

The last sentence stands out as well. "I thought you a better man than this, Robert. I thought we had made a nobler king." We know Aerys was king before Robert so that is who Ned is referencing. But in this conversation, Ned is comparing Robert and Aerys lack of noble demands. Robert is the king who is demanding the death of a child without looking at her or doing the deed himself, not Aerys. But Ned seems to be insinuating that Robert is no better than Aerys was, and for being guilty of the same demand.

The word defiance stands out in the text, and it is certainly a word that is not overused in the series.

The word defiance is used only 27 times in the 5 published novels. Not very often, considering the size of those said novels. It is a word that seems to be used with great intent by the author. It is used several times when discussing Lions roaring Defiance, it is used the most times in relation to Aerys, the Darklyn's and the Defiance of Duskendale, and is used a few other times as well. Most of the defiance wording links the lions showing defiance and to the situation at Duskendale; and it is meant to draw our attention. A few other times, the word defiance, it does not really fit with Duskendale or the Lannisters and that is notable as well.  Two of the times it stands out to me are:
 

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"I will not be part of murder, Robert. Do as you will, but do not ask me to fix my seal to it."

For a moment Robert did not seem to understand what Ned was saying. Defiance was not a dish he tasted often.AGOT-Eddard VIII

 

Here, when Ned refuses to be a part of the death of Daenerys Targaryen; refusing to help his king with murder is considered defiance.

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"At the dawn of Robert's Rebellion. The Mad King had sent to the Eyrie for Stark's head, but Jon Arryn sent him back defiance. ADWD-Davos I

Here, when Jon Arryn refused to be part of the death of Ned and Robert; refusing to help his king with murder is noted as defiance.

If Robert had demanded that Ned send him Theon Greyjoy's head, and Ned refused, would that be showing defiance to Robert's demand?

It might be just a coincidence, but it's one I have a hard time looking away from!

We really have very little information about the time before Robert's Rebellion, and that is what makes speculation so easy, I suppose. The more room you have to create, the bigger the speculation can rise. There are few details of Ned's life before our story starts. Not during his time in Winterfell as a child, although he knows Old Nan's stories but he could have learned them at a young age and relearned them as his own children listened to those stories, and not much of his time in the Vale. We get a little drop of information about Harrenhal and the Rebellion, but then not much again. We know that at one point Ned fought in the Greyjoy Rebellion and gained Theon as a "ward", and at some other time, approximately five years before our story starts, Ned went to Bear Island to serve justice via Ice to Jorah Mormont. But we really know so very little, and we know more about Ned than we know about a lot of our characters. GRRM really doesn't give us much, but we sure form some idea's based on the little we are given and what we think/hope could have happened and we call it theory crafting. So my theory crafting makes me think that Ned was, at least at one point, a hostage in the Vale.

This idea challenges some of the ideas of "southron ambitions" for the Stark's which has become a pretty accepted concept, but most of that concept comes for Barbrey Dustin and it is had to say what her intent is or even what is true or not. However, it does not it rule out "southron ambitions" either. Especially because we really know very little about what those "southron ambitions" entailed. This is pure speculation, but if Aerys was already worried about some area's in his kingdom not being so loyal, and he did place Ned and Robert as hostages under the care of Jon Arryn, that might have given Rickard Stark and Steffan Baratheon more of a reason to plot quietly against the Targaryen regime, maybe wit Jon Arryn leading the plot. 

If anyone else has some thoughts on this, or if they have seen some threads related to this, I would love the links, please. It is hard to imagine that it has not been discussed somewhere, as I find there are probably very few original idea's or things that haven't been questioned over the years. Everything that I have researched on the internet seems to feel that nothing is suspicious about Ned being a ward in the vale, that he was just a regular old ward, probably serving as a squire and training to be a warrior, creating a bond with the north and the vale of Arryn, or that Ned was a ward as part of a larger scheme of Lords who were consolidating to move against the Targaryen rule. These things could be true, but maybe something else was going on? Have I watched to many episodes of the x-files and now I question everything? I am curious to see if anyone else thinks this could be a possibility and all comments are welcome! I could be very wrong about this, but the discussion should prove interesting.

Sorry about the length of this post. I talk too much in person, as well!

 The original post at The Last Hearth is here, if anyone is interested; it has been slightly updated:  http://thelasthearth.com/thread/1510/eddard-hostage-vale

[Minsc]

IIRC, Robert and Ned were just visiting Jon Arryn rather than them still living there.

[Ralphis Baratheon]

Well since the heir to the Vale Elbert Arryn was part of Brandon Stark's entourage I'd say no. Ned's a second son and Elbert is the heir to the Vale. If Jon Arryn was keeping Ned there against his will Brandon would have the more valuable hostage. Also I don't think Elbert would hang around Brandon Stark if his uncle was keeping the "Wild Wolf's" brother as a hostage. 

[elder brother jonothor dar]

I must admit I got board before getting a 10th the way through your post.

Simply put no.

1 hour ago, St Daga said:

"Wards, we always called them, when Winterfell demanded boys of us, but they were hostages, and none the worse for it."

Wards we called them, so wards do not equal hostage, although a ward might be a polite term for hostage, the distinction would be clear to everyone.

 

Yes I suppose there could be a possibility that Ned was a hostage on the kings orders against the north but there is no mention of this by anyone, there is zero chance however of Robert also being one he was the son of the kings best friend.

[Foot_Of_The_King]

I suppose a ward could become a hostage if a huge "disagreement" between the two lords arose. 

[thranta flyer]

I actually just posted something related to this about what was going on in the realm prior to the tournament at Harrenhall.  I have a suspicion that Jon Arryn was a crafty man...moreso than he is given credit for.  We know that both Robert and Eddard were incredibly attached to him because he was a second father to Eddard and pretty much the only father Robert really had. 

Being that Baratheon, Stark, and Arryn are three of the seven great houses, I think that the boys were raised together on purpose so that there were ties between the houses that go beyond marriage and old alliances.  If the sons of great houses are raised together, they are less likely to betray each other and have machinations against each other.  Ned hoped to do this with Bran who he thought could bridge the gap between Rob, Joeffrey, and Tommen because he knew that Rob and Joeffrey were not fond of each other.  I think that Steffon Baratheon, Jon Arryn, and Rickard Stark wanted their boys raised together on purpose and to help keep peace.

When Robert was just a boy, Steffon died returning from a mission to the free cities to find a bride for Rhaegar.  I'm not sure if that was before or after Robert was taken as a ward to the Eyrie.  When Robert was fostered out whether by his father or Cresson/whomever was his guardian at the time, might throw a wrench in some of that.  If Steffon did foster Robert out before he left, that makes me think that Steffon was no fool and knew Aerys was more prone to the crazies.  If I was in that situation, I would "fail" a mission to get the crown prince a wife then suggest via letter and reinforce in person that he get a wife possibly from another great house like the Martels to ally the Targaryans, especially the crown prince, to one of the strongest of the seven kingdoms.

Meanwhile, I would want my heir as far from Aerys as possible.  He sent Robert to the Vale which would be very difficult for the Targaryans to attack without dragons where Robert would grow up with the air to the Vale.  (Doesn't that stink of alliance.)  Then I would also make sure that any of the other great houses would also have ties.  Let's say that Brandon was already being groomed as heir, but Rickard has three sons and a daughter.  Brandon is possibly slightly older than Elbert and Benjen is quite younger, but Eddard is just the right age.  Mind you, if I was Rickard, I knew my son Brandon had temper, the wolf's blood, in him.  It seems like it makes sense age-wise and temperament-wise to send Eddard instead of Brandon or Benjen.  Ned would also be the better choice in terms that he wouldn't be tied to Winterfell as much as Brandon would be in terms of ruling, so he would have the freedom to travel as an envoy between Winterfell and Stormsend at need.  Again, this would also keep Aerys paws off of the second in line to Winterfell. Out of sight and out of mind.

Some further, anedotal, evidence for that is that Brandon Stark was set to marry Catelyn Tully who was Lord Hoster's daughter, and his lands are, coincidentally, on the road between Winterfell and the Vale.  Even after Brandon dies, Eddard marries her "as is proper", but I'm betting that Jon Arryn had a hand in keeping that alliance/tie by marriage in place.  Eddard is also no fool and knew that he'd need the armies of the Riverlands.  I suspect that Elbert Arryn was supposed to be married to Lysa, especially considering that Jon Arryn steps in to marry Lysa, and we don't really know why aside from Elbert got killed in King's Landing, so the Vale suddenly had no heir.  It might have been that Elbert was once betrothed to Lysa.  Further, Robert was betrothed to Lyana which would be a marriage tie as well as a friendship/brotherly tie between House Baratheon and House Stark.  Add in the ties to House Arryn, that's a pretty formidable force.

It's possible that several of the primary houses in the kingdom had started to become uncomfortable with the Targaryans years before when various Targs started dying from mysterious incidents involving fire and prophecies and hatching dragons.  It was well known that there was sometimes a madness that took the Targaryans.  Also, since dragons had not been seen form over a hundred years, the main power behind the Targs taking (and keeping) the throne was dying out.  Then you get Aerys II on the throne who seems to be okay in the beginning  but then gets more and more unstable even before Rhaegar comes of age to take the throne.  I think that the great houses had been preparing for any crazy Targ on the throne.  My personal suspicion is that several of the great houses, possibly led by Tywin who knew Aerys well, may have approached Rhaegar about taking the throne.  I think there was going to be a possible war/rebellion anyways, but Robert and Eddard were not really privy to that information.  Brandon may have been, but when Rhaegar "kidnapped" Lyanna, all bets were off.  Then what was probably meant to be a council of some sort with the entire realm backing Rhaegar to take the throne suddenly turned into a war, especially when Brandon and Rickard got killed.

[thranta flyer]

It might be possible that Aerys thought Jon Arryn a very loyal subject who he wanted to keep Robert and Eddard as collatoral, but I think Jon probably would have had different ideas even if he didn't make those known to Aerys.  While Aerys thought the boys were being held as hostages or wards, I think that Jon Arryn, Steffon Baratheon, and Rickard Stark would have probably agreed that's the safest place for the boys.  I think there's something to your argument, but I also think Aerys perception of what was going on versus what was really going on were two different things.

 

[Nevets]

Given his continued affection for Jon Arryn, all the way to Arryn's death, I highly doubt it.  I expect if he were any kind of hostage, he would think of Arryn quite as fondly, similar to Theon's somewhat resentful feelings toward Ned.  

Also, he probably really liked being with Jon Arryn and being in the Vale, and so was happy to spend a great deal of time there.  Also, as second son, his presence probably wasn't really needed at Winterfell, and his presence at the Vale gave him a chance to hobnob with bigshots like Arryn and Robert Baratheon.  Plus it's more centrally located than Winterfell, which is out in the middle of nowhere.

[The Knight of Flours]

There  are:

1) wards who are hostages

2) wards who are sent to another lord's house to learn more of the world, to serve as a squire, to foster good relations etc

Eddard was the latter

 

[St Daga]

12 hours ago, Minsc said:

IIRC, Robert and Ned were just visiting Jon Arryn rather than them still living there.

Hi. If you have some idea where in the text it states they were visiting, I would love to see it, and I could put my tinfoil to rest. I have only ever found the text to state that Aerys sent to the Eyrie for their heads, and that they were in the vale or Eyrie. I just find it odd that both Ned and Robert were hanging in the vale at an age when both their wardships should have ended, at least by Westerosi age standards. Unless they (Jon Arryn, Robert and Ned) were their plotting rebellion the whole time, which is possible. I think Jon Arryn was much more of a player than people might think.

I don't have my books with me right now, but on a quick search, in TWOIAF Ned and Robert are referred to as "former wards" only once. In the five published novels nothing indicates when their wardships might have ended. 

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

"What if Robert and Ned were hostages, just nobody knew about it and nobody mentioned it?"

Frankly, I see absolutely no point.

[St Daga]

14 hours ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

Well since the heir to the Vale Elbert Arryn was part of Brandon Stark's entourage I'd say no. Ned's a second son and Elbert is the heir to the Vale. If Jon Arryn was keeping Ned there against his will Brandon would have the more valuable hostage. Also I don't think Elbert would hang around Brandon Stark if his uncle was keeping the "Wild Wolf's" brother as a hostage. 

You make a good point about Elbert Arryn accompanying Brandon to King's Landing, which indicates some closeness between the houses. I just cannot understand why Aerys would have demanded that Jon Arryn kill his former wards. If they were no longer ward's in the Vale, they should be protected by guest right, and it would not be "defiance" to refuse the King's order. Of course, we are told many times that Aerys is mad, but how crazy was he really? Maybe he wasn't as mad as people claim. I know he refused haircuts and his fingernail's had grown long, but when it comes to thinking Rhaegar and other lords were plotting against him, he was probably correct.

[St Daga]

14 hours ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

Wards we called them, so wards do not equal hostage, although a ward might be a polite term for hostage, the distinction would be clear to everyone.

Clear unless GRRM doesn't want it to be. I admit the idea is not clear, but there are people who are both ward and hostage, like Theon or Sansa, or the Walder's after Ramsay takes them to the Dreadfort. A ward can easily become a hostage we are told in the story. A person who I think might also be a hostage in our story, at least for a time, is Quentyn Martell. Of course, the timeline is vague, but Jon Arryn did travel to Dorne after the rebellion, and after that visit, it seemed to quiet some of the unrest from Dorne. Quentyn would have been sent to Yronwood around this time. It's possible that he was placed in a house loyal to Robert to keep the Martell's under control. If this was done once by a king and Jon Arryn, it could have been done before. There are many parallels and inversions in this story.

14 hours ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

Yes I suppose there could be a possibility that Ned was a hostage on the kings orders against the north but there is no mention of this by anyone, there is zero chance however of Robert also being one he was the son of the kings best friend.

I agree that Robert is a lot less likely, and I only consider the possibility because we are told that Aerys demanded Robert's head too. Now, that might not be the truth. Maybe it was just Ned. In Dance, only Eddard's head is mentioned by Lord Borrell as being demanded by Aerys. Maybe the truth will be that Aerys demanded only Ned's head, or neither Ned nor Robert's head, and Jon Arryn could have fabricated the whole thing as a reason to start his war. 

[St Daga]

14 hours ago, Foot_Of_The_King said:

I suppose a ward could become a hostage if a huge "disagreement" between the two lords arose.

Off the top of my head, I know that Catelyn mention's this when she agree's to take Big and Little Walder as wards. "A ward can easily become a hostage, if need be." ACOK-Catelyn V. I think it comes up other times, as well. 

[Ralphis Baratheon]

25 minutes ago, St Daga said:

You make a good point about Elbert Arryn accompanying Brandon to King's Landing, which indicates some closeness between the houses. I just cannot understand why Aerys would have demanded that Jon Arryn kill his former wards. If they were no longer ward's in the Vale, they should be protected by guest right, and it would not be "defiance" to refuse the King's order. Of course, we are told many times that Aerys is mad, but how crazy was he really? Maybe he wasn't as mad as people claim. I know he refused haircuts and his fingernail's had grown long, but when it comes to thinking Rhaegar and other lords were plotting against him, he was probably correct.

Think of this too, Aerys killed Elbert Arryn then sent a raven to Jon Arryn commanding him to kill his foster sons. Why wouldn't he keep Elbert Arryn alive and use him as leverage against Jon Arryn to give him Ned and or Robert?

In a thread of few weeks back I point to  Aerys asking Jon Arryn to break Guest Right in order to kill his foster sons as another reason why Aerys was crazy and/or the people around him wanted him to come off that way. This is a man who also mocked and violated the rules of Trail by Combat when he chose "fire" as his champion. If he'll do that then why not ask another Lord to violate the terms of Guest Right? At that point I think he felt he was above any laws of men. He was also going to burn down King's Landing with himself in it.

[St Daga]

13 hours ago, thranta flyer said:

I have a suspicion that Jon Arryn was a crafty man...moreso than he is given credit for.

I agree that Jon Arryn was very crafty, much like GRRM!

14 hours ago, thranta flyer said:

I think that Steffon Baratheon, Jon Arryn, and Rickard Stark wanted their boys raised together on purpose and to help keep peace.

It is possible. Many people speculate this is the case, as well as arranging marriages between House Tully and Stark and House Baratheon and Stark. I don't know if peace was their goal, however, if that is the case, but for alliance against the reigning King. 

14 hours ago, thranta flyer said:

When Robert was just a boy, Steffon died returning from a mission to the free cities to find a bride for Rhaegar.  I'm not sure if that was before or after Robert was taken as a ward to the Eyrie. 

Robert was probably 14-15 when his parents died and had been living in the vale since he was probably 9 years old.

14 hours ago, thranta flyer said:

I suspect that Elbert Arryn was supposed to be married to Lysa, especially considering that Jon Arryn steps in to marry Lysa, and we don't really know why aside from Elbert got killed in King's Landing, so the Vale suddenly had no heir.  It might have been that Elbert was once betrothed to Lysa. 

There is no indication in the text about a possible match between Lysa and Elbert Arryn. The only mention for her of possible betrothal is to Jaime Lannister, but that doesn't mean there were not other options. Catelyn speculates that Jon Arryn needed a wife who was proven fertile and that is why he married Lysa, since she had been pregnant by Littlefinger. However, I doubt a lot of Cat's assumptions, so maybe there was another marriage alliance in the works for Lysa. A lot is possible in this story.

14 hours ago, thranta flyer said:

Then what was probably meant to be a council of some sort with the entire realm backing Rhaegar to take the throne suddenly turned into a war, especially when Brandon and Rickard got killed.

If such an alliance existed, I am not certain they actually supported Rhaegar on the throne, and might have used him as a pawn, while trying to take down House Targaryen completely. Both Tywin and Jon Arryn seem capable of that kind of action.

14 hours ago, thranta flyer said:

It might be possible that Aerys thought Jon Arryn a very loyal subject who he wanted to keep Robert and Eddard as collatoral, but I think Jon probably would have had different ideas even if he didn't make those known to Aerys.  While Aerys thought the boys were being held as hostages or wards, I think that Jon Arryn, Steffon Baratheon, and Rickard Stark would have probably agreed that's the safest place for the boys.

This is certainly possible, and it could fit my theory about Aerys demanding Ned and Robert's head. Maybe Aerys did think he had the upper hand with the loyal Jon Arryn holding boy's Aerys considered hostages, while truly this was an alliance between the north, the vale and the storm lands. It would answer a few oddities I have seen while staying true to the accepted narrative about Ned's time in the vale.

It still seems odd to me that Ned and Robert are considered/called "wards" at the age of 19 or so, when that is well past the age of manhood in Westeros. The only ward's that are that age in our story are Theon, who is a hostage, and Quentyn, who I speculate was a hostage prior to Jon Arryn and Robert's death.

 

[Consigliere]

No, Ned was not a hostage. He was being fostered in The Vale. Per Martin: http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Some_Questions

 

Quote

How did Ned manage to become such a paragon Northener and a close friend of Lyanna's if he spent his time in the Vale from age 8 to 18? Or did he return home at some point(when?) and was just visiting Jon Arryn prior to and after the tourney at Harrenhal?

He was fostered, not exiled. Yes, certainly he returned home. Less frequently the first few years, when he would have been performing the duties of a page and then a squire, more often and for longer periods later. During his "squire" years (he wasn't a squire in the strict sense, since he wasn't training for knighthood, but he was acting as one), he would also have accompanied Jon Arryn on many travels out of the Vale. And once he reached the age of sixteen he was a man grown, free to come to go as he liked... which would have included both time at home and in the Vale, since Jon Arryn had become a second father. The same was true of Robert, who divided his time between Storm's End and the Vale after reaching manhood, not to mention dropping in on tourneys and whatever choice fights he could find.

 

[St Daga]

10 hours ago, Nevets said:

Given his continued affection for Jon Arryn, all the way to Arryn's death, I highly doubt it.  I expect if he were any kind of hostage, he would think of Arryn quite as fondly, similar to Theon's somewhat resentful feelings toward Ned.

Yes, Ned does seem to have great affection for Jon Arryn. Theon has some affection for Ned, too, although he is very conflicted about it. Hard to say what Theon might think of Ned if Theon lives to his mid-30's. If my theory (which I admit is shiny with tinfoil) is correct, then Jon Arryn didn't execute Ned when the king demanded it, and that would certainly make Ned fond of Jon Arryn.

11 hours ago, Nevets said:

Also, as second son, his presence probably wasn't really needed at Winterfell, and his presence at the Vale gave him a chance to hobnob with bigshots like Arryn and Robert Baratheon.  Plus it's more centrally located than Winterfell, which is out in the middle of nowhere.

A couple things to this. We know that Ned felt that Bran's place as a second son was as a bannerman of Robb's and in the north, so I would think he would feel that would have been his own role as a second son as well. 

Ned doesn't strike me as a person interested in hobnobbing with the big shots. He tell's us several times in his POV's that his place is in the north. He doesn't seem at all excited about going to deal with the politics of Kings Landing, and he seems to think that tournaments are nonsense, or at least the expense of them. He refers to them as folly, I believe.

The vale might be centrally located but it's not easily trafficked. From Tyrion and Cat's travel, we can tell that the trip to the Gates of the Moon and the Eyrie is perilous at most times. Not easy to travel too or from, and that could make it almost as isolated as Winterfell.

[elder brother jonothor dar]

43 minutes ago, St Daga said:

A person who I think might also be a hostage in our story, at least for a time, is Quentyn Martell. Of course, the timeline is vague, but Jon Arryn did travel to Dorne after the rebellion, and after that visit, it seemed to quiet some of the unrest from Dorne. Quentyn would have been sent to Yronwood around this time. It's possible that he was placed in a house loyal to Robert to keep the Martell's under control

Yes and no Quentyn is similar to Myrcella they are not hostages but are in a very dangerous situation.  They are a sign of trust and the opposite of taking a hostage as they are given up freey.

 

You seem hung up on the idea that wards = hostage, to make somebody a hostage and a ward you need power over them, the Greyjoys where defeated and as terms of peace he had to give up his 1 remaining son to guarantee his obedience.

 

Why does Ned end up in the vale?  If there by his fathers concent why does the king suddenly decree that he should be a hostage and Jon should be his keeper?

The king could simply summon any of his subjects to the capital and seize them if he wished no need to have a convoluted arrangement to hold a 2nd son.

 

Back to Quentyn how do you imagine Jon walks up to sunspear, apologies for the brutal murder of his sister and children acknowledges that the whole of Dorne is about to revolt, then tells the Prince that to return to the kings peace all he has to do is give up his son as a hostage; and walks out with him?

[St Daga]

11 hours ago, The Knight of Flours said:

There  are:

1) wards who are hostages

2) wards who are sent to another lord's house to learn more of the world, to serve as a squire, to foster good relations etc

Eddard was the latter

Yes that is the common thought. I am just questioning some of the wording in the text that might indicate something else might be going on. In our story the only wards that are the age of 18 or older are also hostages, such as Theon, and possibly Quentyn. Why are Ned and Robert still referred as wards at the age of 19? Why are they hanging out at the vale when Robert should be ruling the Stormlands and Ned should be in charge of his own holdfast in the north? I just think those things are a bit odd.