thranta flyer Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 I've been thinking about the political climate before Aerys II really went completely off his rocker. There were some interesting alliances in play. Rickard Stark had his second son, Eddard, as Jon Arryn's ward. Rickard also had his first son, Brandon, betrothed to Catelyn Tully, the eldest daughter of Hoster Tully. Meanwhile, Robert Baratheon, heir apparent to the stormlands is also a ward of Jon Arryn. So that's three key players who are allied by friendship/blood ties/wards/marriage/etc... One detail we don't know is exactly when Robert and Eddard were fostered out to John Arryn. Was it before or after Lord Steffon's death that Robert was sent to the Vale as a ward? Did Rickard Stark and Steffon Baratheon intend for their sons to be fostered together to strengthen alliances? Meanwhile Rickard also wanted to bind his house to the Tully's by marriage. That's a lot of political maneuvering going on. Robert, Catelyn, and Eddard seemed to be about the same age; if Edmure had been slightly older, would he also have been a ward in the Vale? Part of me thinks that this was deliberate maneuvering on the parts of Hoster Tully, Rickard Stark, Jon Arryn, and possibly Steffon Baratheon. Between the three or four of them, four of the great houses are united. For this theory to play out, I'm thinking that Steffon Baratheon was probably gone when Jon Arryn maybe approached Cressen about taking Robert on as a ward. The reason i say this i that Steffon was off trying to find a bride for Rhaegar at the time, showing that his house was still closely tied with the Targaryans. If Steffon had not kicked the bucket when he did, Robert & Eddard may not have been fantastic friends and the rebellion, if it happened at all, may not have been successful. Keep in mind that Rhaegar and the Martel kids (Elia, Oberyn, and Doran) were a few years older than the fledgeling generation of Tullys, Starks, and Baratheons who eventually were involved with the rebellion. Cersi and Jamie are somewhere just between the two as Cersi was old enough or just about old enough to be considered as Rhaegar's potential bride. In the end, House Martel was tied to the Targaryans by marriage and grandchildren while Tywin (was) a close friend to Aerys and at one time his hand even if that all was changing, the rest of the realm would still view the Lannisters as allies to the Targaryans. During that time period, Balon Greyjoy was doing something, but we don't know what, and we don't know the political maneuverings of Highgarden at that time either. Given that set up, what do you think was going on with those political maneuverings? Were the Starks, Arryns, and Tully's planning something that we are not privy to because all those key players were gone by the time ASoIaF rolls around. Did people know Rhaegar was going to make a bid for power in the next few years, and were the great houses alligning themselves for that or to depose Aerys with/without Rhaegar? Was something else entirely going on? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Ned Stark Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, thranta flyer said: Given that set up, what do you think was going on with those political maneuverings? Were the Starks, Arryns, and Tully's planning something that we are not privy to because all those key players were gone by the time ASoIaF rolls around. Did people know Rhaegar was going to make a bid for power in the next few years, and were the great houses alligning themselves for that or to depose Aerys with/without Rhaegar? Was something else entirely going on? Thoughts? The best theory I've seen on that is by @SFDanny, I think, which goes something like this; Rickard (and by extensin, Brandon) were giving Rhaegar the impression that they would support him if he called a Great Council to unseat Aerys, but were secretly gonna double cross him and put Robert's name forth, and let the two Targs bleed votes off each other while the Stark bloc (Stark, Baratheon, Tully, Arryn) would vote in Robert. Lyanna told him of Brandon's plans after he tracked her down for being the KotLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lord of the Crossing Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 There are bits of information to support that the Starks and the Baratheons were plotting to overthrow the Targaryens. Barbrey Dustin's term, "Southron Ambitions" became the name given to the conspiracy by many readers. Nothing concrete but it has enough to back it up that it is more likely what happened than not. Where I now differ with the proponents of this theory is the involvement of Jon Arryn. The Arryns are isolated and they seem to prefer that way of life. I don't think he was initially involved. Rickard and Robert were from the inception of the plan. Rhaegar's overtures to Lyanna at Harrenhal may have been something ordered by Aerys. A blocking move to thwart the Stark-Baratheon alliance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSmith84 Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, Lame Lothar Frey said: There are bits of information to support that the Starks and the Baratheons were plotting to overthrow the Targaryens. Barbrey Dustin's term, "Southron Ambitions" became the name given to the conspiracy by many readers. Nothing concrete but it has enough to back it up that it is more likely what happened than not. Pray tell, what is this evidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lord of the Crossing Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, WSmith84 said: Pray tell, what is this evidence? I refer you to the link above. There are many discussions on this topic but that link is the latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady bonehead Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 21 minutes ago, King Ned Stark said: The best theory I've seen on that is by @SFDanny, I think, which goes something like this; Rickard (and by extensin, Brandon) were giving Rhaegar the impression that they would support him if he called a Great Council to unseat Aerys, but were secretly gonna double cross him and put Robert's name forth, and let the two Targs bleed votes off each other while the Stark bloc (Stark, Baratheon, Tully, Arryn) would vote in Robert. Lyanna told him of Brandon's plans after he tracked her down for being the KotLT. I'm not sure how a Great Council works, but I don't believe that Robert had any hope of becoming King without a war. Rhaegar is the only one who could have staged a relatively peaceful coup against his father. I'm also not sure how Tywin fits into this theory. He was on the brink of betrothing Lysa to Jaime, so was he going to be part of the plot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSmith84 Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 31 minutes ago, Lame Lothar Frey said: I refer you to the link above. There are many discussions on this topic but that link is the latest. Yeah, I was on that thread. The evidence amounted to basically 'Well, maybe this happened... I don't have any evidence but... There's this vague phrase that could literally mean almost anything... Oh, and I've interpreted this sentence in a way that suggests Ned was aware of a plot to overthrow Aerys despite nothing of the sort ever cropping up in his PoV...' I'm not saying the proposed idea is definitely wrong, but I'd like to have some evidence before I consider it to be true (or even likely). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thranta flyer Posted July 3, 2017 Author Share Posted July 3, 2017 Tywin fits in as an odd aside (tinfoil hat) because he and Aerys essentially grew up together and were incredibly close for years. Tywin was even his hand, but they had a falling out, and Tywin packed up to leave King's landing before things got ugly. After that, the realm in general may have perceived them as friends, but their relations were strained. At one point there was talk of Cersi being Rhaegar's wife but it was never finalized. Reasons for that vary from she was a bit too young to marrying Elia of Dorne made a better political match to Aerys and Tywin had another falling out. There are many reasons why that may not have happened; we just don't know for sure. If I were Rhaegar and Tywin had been my father's best friend and I knew that they had a falling out over my crazy dad, I'm thinking that it's not out of the realm of possibility that as Rhaegar got older and became more clued into his father's behavior, he might Tywin for advice. What that advice is, I don't know. Tywin was also one of the primary lords at this point in time: Jon Arryn, Rickard Stark, Hoster Tully, Steffon Baratheon (before he died), etc...were all huge players before the tourney at Harrenhall. At that point in time Tywin was probably still perceived as an ally of the throne/putting up the presence with the possible betrothal of his daughter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Ned Stark Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Lady bonehead said: I'm not sure how a Great Council works, but I don't believe that Robert had any hope of becoming King without a war. Rhaegar is the only one who could have staged a relatively peaceful coup against his father. I'm also not sure how Tywin fits into this theory. He was on the brink of betrothing Lysa to Jaime, so was he going to be part of the plot? I'm not really sure, per the theory, IIRC, only lords can vote during a Great Council, Rhaegar and Aerys would both pull votes from the Targaryen base, while Robert would have most of the Stormlands, most of the Riverlands, most of the Vale, and all of the north. Yeah, while it was a risk, it was a calculated one; if they figured (and maybe rightly so) that Aerys would come in third and would not have the power base to seek revenge, and IF Rhaegar did eek out a victory, it would be close enough that he would not seek retribution either. And, they would have 4 of the 7 kingdoms in the bag, mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSmith84 Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 25 minutes ago, thranta flyer said: Tywin fits in as an odd aside (tinfoil hat) because he and Aerys essentially grew up together and were incredibly close for years. Tywin was even his hand, but they had a falling out, and Tywin packed up to leave King's landing before things got ugly. After that, the realm in general may have perceived them as friends, but their relations were strained. At one point there was talk of Cersi being Rhaegar's wife but it was never finalized. Reasons for that vary from she was a bit too young to marrying Elia of Dorne made a better political match to Aerys and Tywin had another falling out. There are many reasons why that may not have happened; we just don't know for sure. It seems very certain that Cersei didn't marry Rhaegar because Aerys refused the offer (Aerys' comment that Tywin was his most able servant, but a servant nonetheless) but Tywin kept Cersei at court, it seemed. Probably trying to get her to marry Viserys (Aerys' preferred child) or waiting for poor Elia to die. Thus his (welcomed) inclusion into the STAB (Stark, Tully, Arryn, Baratheon) alliance seems a little odd if the STAB alliance was indeed plotting to overthrow the Targaryens and replace them with Robert. It's certainly not impossible, but it would be a strange move for Tywin to marry into the family he wants to overthrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StarkofWinterfell Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, WSmith84 said: It seems very certain that Cersei didn't marry Rhaegar because Aerys refused the offer (Aerys' comment that Tywin was his most able servant, but a servant nonetheless) but Tywin kept Cersei at court, it seemed. Probably trying to get her to marry Viserys (Aerys' preferred child) or waiting for poor Elia to die. Thus his (welcomed) inclusion into the STAB (Stark, Tully, Arryn, Baratheon) alliance seems a little odd if the STAB alliance was indeed plotting to overthrow the Targaryens and replace them with Robert. It's certainly not impossible, but it would be a strange move for Tywin to marry into the family he wants to overthrow. Can you please not make this a thing? This is the cringiest acronym I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TMIFairy Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 2 hours ago, Lame Lothar Frey said: Where I now differ with the proponents of this theory is the involvement of Jon Arryn. The Arryns are isolated and they seem to prefer that way of life. I don't think he was initially involved. Rickard and Robert were from the inception of the plan. Would Robert be capable of hatching a plan? Not too young and/or too stupid? I see the older generation at work here - Rickard, Hoster and Jon. With Robert just coming of age, would it not be natural for Jon to help him with arranging a betrothal, thus tieing him him to the North-Riverland's block? The Southron Ambitions Theory holds that Jon was up to his ears in the plot, by fostering both Robert and Eddard he was thus building bonds between the Stormlands and the North going beyond the Robert-Lyanna match. Tywin - the "R+H+A plotters" hoped for a Jaime-Lysa match. Ruined by Jaime's stupidity/love for Cersei or Aerys' - or maybe Varys' shrewdness - have your pick. With Jaime in the KG Ayerys/varys killed two birds with one stone - torpedoed the Tully-Lanister match AND gained a hostage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSmith84 Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 42 minutes ago, StarkofWinterfell said: Can you please not make this a thing? This is the cringiest acronym I've ever seen. I didn't come up with it. I agree it's cringey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elder brother jonothor dar Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 On Monday, July 03, 2017 at 8:09 PM, thranta flyer said: Given that set up, what do you think was going on with those political maneuverings? A few corrections things Cersie is younger than Ned and Robert not older Balon was the heir to his passive father not ruler of the iron isles so no plotting going on there. There was no plan to instal Robert as king until they looked like they could actually win the rebellion and had to decide what they were going to do once they had overthrown the Targs. The context of the great lords forming a large alliance to counter the power of the throne has come following the death of Egg. It's almost 300 years since the 7 kingdoms have been united, the fear of kingdoms being at constant war has been forgotten, the Targs no longer have their dragons to enforce their rule. What is fresh in the minds of the great lords is how the previous king had tried to curtail their power and how working together they had resisted much of that change. The Tyrells seem to have had a stronger game plan consolidate their own region by all the major houses intermarriage, this did not reap any immediate benefit after the rebellion they did not loose anything but made no gains either, however come the Wo5K they are the most secure meaning they have no ties to other regions for better or worse and can forge an alliance of their choosing when the time is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormking902 Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 One thing confuses me about the southern ambitions theory floating around is why would Rickard want to get more invovled in the South? The Starks love the North and no lord of WF has ever wanted anything to do with the southern political scene before why now?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.