Why Varys didn't stop the assassination of Daenerys in Season 1?

[The Sunland Lord]

12 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Lol, so if the son is never born because he was murdered in utero, Drogo would just forget about it? Hardly.

When you put those two options on weight, what is more valuable? Daenerys and her baby alive or both dead?

If the second option served better to Varys & Illyrio, I think Illyrio would say: "Khal Drogo won't act until his son is dead", instead of "born". 

 

[John Suburbs]

8 hours ago, The Sunland Lord said:

When you put those two options on weight, what is more valuable? Daenerys and her baby alive or both dead?

If the second option served better to Varys & Illyrio, I think Illyrio would say: "Khal Drogo won't act until his son is dead", instead of "born". 

 

Which is more valuable, a Dothraki invasion while Westeros is in turmoil, or one that happens after the fighting is done and power has been reconsolidated under one house?

We didn't hear the end of that conversation. They could very well have decided then and there to tell Robert about the pregnancy and let the inevitable assassination plot move forward. That way, whether the plot succeeds or fails, it gives them the invasion they need at the time they need it.

Getting the Dothraki army to Westeros is what's important here. Dany and Rhaego are simply means to that end.

[John Suburbs]

10 hours ago, Dolorous Gabe said:

Dany survived the attempt, Drogo had her and his unborn son. With her still alive, the situation is completely different to one where she and his unborn son are gone. I disagree that the agreement becomes irrelevant. I do think Drogo could quite easily consider the idea of leading his Dothraki across the Narrow Sea an unnecessary motion with Dany and their unborn child gone. I'm not stating definitively one way or the other. Remember, this is from Varys and Illyrio's perspective. They are calculating risks and would lose their entire plot and precious rare Targaryen blood if Drogo decided to do nothing, which is why it seems to me a ludicrous idea. And as stated in the scene I linked, they are under the impression that Drogo would do nothing until his son is born.

Well, people believe what they will. It someone insists that the moon is made of cheese, there's no way to argue against it. So I'll bow out now with:

[Dolorous Gabe]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Well, people believe what they will. It someone insists that the moon is made of cheese, there's no way to argue against it. So I'll bow out now with:

You were the one making a case that Drogo would definitely invade if the assassination had been successful, putting his Dothraki horde at terrible risk for the sake of simple revenge. He would undoubtedly have invaded for his living Khaleesi but he gains nothing but the possibility of revenge out the invasion if she is dead and I believe there is a legitimate question mark over whether he would value this revenge so much for the risk he would be taking. I'm simply pointing out what Varys and Illyrio risk losing if Dany is killed and Drogo decides not to invade, especially with the son Drogo is waiting for on the way. I do not believe that position is worthy of an eye-roll but each to their own.

[Tolsimir]

Because they were following the book story in season one and then halfway through decided not to anymore.

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, Dolorous Gabe said:

You were the one making a case that Drogo would definitely invade if the assassination had been successful, putting his Dothraki horde at terrible risk for the sake of simple revenge. He would undoubtedly have invaded for his living Khaleesi but he gains nothing but the possibility of revenge out the invasion if she is dead and I believe there is a legitimate question mark over whether he would value this revenge so much for the risk he would be taking. I'm simply pointing out what Varys and Illyrio risk losing if Dany is killed and Drogo decides not to invade, especially with the son Drogo is waiting for on the way. I do not believe that position is worthy of an eye-roll but each to their own.

No, my case was that this was the way D&D could explain Varys' actions in the first season in light of the subsequent drop of the fAegon plotline. They are, after all, the ones who decide what kind of person show-Drogo is, how he would react and whether Varys and Illyrio would expect that reaction.

From what I can tell, you were trying to make the case that Drogo would definitely not invade if Dany were killed (but yet somehow Rhaego is still on the way? Now I'm even more confused.) and there would be no reason to expect he would. And yet, this is directly contradicted in both the show and the books because Rhaego is still on the way and Drogo is so incensed by the attempt that he begins his march toward Westeros right away -- not to restore the Targaryen dynasty but to seek revenge on Robert and his kingdom.

So sure, to each his own beliefs, even if they have no basis in the actual story.

I like your screen name BTW. Mine is lame.

[Dolorous Gabe]

12 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

I like your screen name BTW. Mine is lame.

Well let's not fall out then. I like your avatar 

 

But from your summary of my point you have it all mixed up.

I never made the claim that Drogo would certainly not invade. I accept that he might but I can see why he might not, as I have detailed. Therefore Varys and Illyrio cannot know for sure what his reaction would be, so killing Dany and Rhaego for the mere possibility of Drogo invading is too high a risk. They would lose far too much if Drogo chooses not to invade.

The point about Rhaego being on the way is that Dany is, obviously, pregnant. Varys and Illyrio know this, so it is only a matter of months until Drogo will be willing to hold up his end of the bargain and invade Westeros to put Viserys on the Iron Throne. So why risk losing so much by allowing the assassination attempt?

[RUSSELL BELL]

In response to your original question there are two answers for this. There is the show answer and there is the real answer. 

The show answer is that we can infer that Varys cares about the stability of the realm above anything else. At this point, Robert is still alive and Dany would have caused more harm than good so the greater good here is that she dies and there is no invasion and hence stability. However, after the events of season 4, the best option for him is to stick with Tyrion and rally to Dany's side. Plus Dany seems like a capable ruler so the realm wins too. 

The real answer though is that in the beginning, the showrunners were sticking very close to the books at that point and were most definitely not thinking about events that far into the future. Which is that Varys in the books is a supporter of fAegon and Dany's death benefits him too. Moreover, when the script was written, although they might have been cues from Martin the Dance of Dragons wasn't even out yet. 

[SuperMario]

It's pretty obvious. In the first season, the Ds were following GRRM's books pretty verbatim including that scene involving Varys and Illyrio in the dragon pits. By the time the 5th season rolled around, they decided to go it alone and scrap entire plotlines and simplify the plot. Thus, no long game from Varys secretly backing Aegon while playing multiple sides. Instead, we get several seasons of him playing multiple sides but in the end supporting Dany, apparently the entire time? It's a plot hole, plain and simple.

[Lord Varys]

Stupidity on their part. This series is so full of plot holes. Cersei was now not only in love with Robert - as per season 1 - but also with Rhaegar - as per season 6 - and with Jaime - as per all seasons.

The chances that a woman who was dreaming about marrying Rhaegar would then like/fall in love with the man who killed him is pretty much nonsense.

Varys was twisted in season 1 into a guy who actually wanted to kill Dany - which he never intended in the books - and then reinvented into a guy who was allied with people who want to restore the Targaryens to the Iron Throne. This doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

[YoungGriff89]

I want to remind everyone, I believe in the same episode as Arya overhearing Varys and Illyrio, that Littlefinger pretty much told Varys outright he knew about his plotting with Illyrio.  I don't think it's unrealistic to assume that Littlefinger had something to do with the assassination attempt to foil Varys.  Varys doesn't really arrange an assassination attempt but instead sends Jorah a warning to be on the lookout while Littlefinger does in fact send an assassin. It's not anything the show has ever confirmed, but given the way the show set up the rivalry between Varys and Littlefinger it seems plausible to me.  

[The Sunland Lord]

1 hour ago, YoungGriff89 said:

I want to remind everyone, I believe in the same episode as Arya overhearing Varys and Illyrio, that Littlefinger pretty much told Varys outright he knew about his plotting with Illyrio.  I don't think it's unrealistic to assume that Littlefinger had something to do with the assassination attempt to foil Varys.  Varys doesn't really arrange an assassination attempt but instead sends Jorah a warning to be on the lookout while Littlefinger does in fact send an assassin. It's not anything the show has ever confirmed, but given the way the show set up the rivalry between Varys and Littlefinger it seems plausible to me.  

It's a scene where Littlefinger tells Varys he knows about his meeting with Illyrio, and about them plotting too. 

But, it's not confirmed Littlefinger had something to do with the attempt on Daenerys, while Varys' little bird only tells Jorah he is pardoned and gives him a pardon letter.