Sticky Sucession

[bent branch]

15 hours ago, Ser_Jon_General said:

Something to consider is the idea of a character declaring themselves ruler versus others declaring them rulers.

We've already seen that people can declare themselves King, that does not mean that people are forced to agree with them.  We, the readers, know that Stannis is the rightful ruler yet very few other lords agree with him and he struggles to attract forces.  Renly had a really sketchy claim to the throne and yet he gathered the strongest force to claim it.

Also consider the Great Council ruling on female succession, in theory it should mean that Dany is blocked from ruling, however in practice she's likely to turn up with several thousand Unsullied, perhaps an entire Dothraki horde and, most importantly, a dragon or three.  Anyone wishing to debate legalese with her is likely to become a short snack for her pets.

On the Tully lands and claims, if the main Tully line is dead then the Stark children (and Robert Arryn) would be in line to succeed.  However, their rule would be reliant on the other Riverlords supporting them.  The easiest route to fix that would be for the claimant (presumably Sansa, Arya or Rickon) to adopt the Tully name.  It may raise a few eyebrows but most would go along with it, especially if it came with a marriage pact to another Riverlands family.

Medieval-style laws were not the hard-and-fast rules we have today, there was no going-40-in-a-30-zone type law where a clear example of rule breaking would lead to a cut-and-dried conviction.  The "laws" are more of a best practice guide and succession laws are no different, you can have all the rights on your side and yet completely lack the support to enforce them.

Have you forgotten that House Tully was removed as Lord Paramount from the Riverlands and that title was given to Littlefinger? Also, have you forgotten that Riverrun was taken from House Tully and given to Emmon Frey? The Tullys don't have anything for anyone to inherit. The other River lords are not happy about the situation, but they did just lose a war. Really, the king decides who gets what. Because of this, the Tully's will have to depend upon whoever replaces Tommen to get their title and lands back. Oops, hope it isn't Dany.

[TMIFairy]

15 hours ago, Ser_Jon_General said:

you can have all the rights on your side and yet completely lack the support to enforce them.

Amen.

My impression is that many posters here miss this point.

Paraphrasing an OTL saying:

- The Law is on the side of the Bigger Battalions.

Or

- might makes right.

[Ser_Jon_General]

2 hours ago, bent branch said:

Have you forgotten that House Tully was removed as Lord Paramount from the Riverlands and that title was given to Littlefinger? Also, have you forgotten that Riverrun was taken from House Tully and given to Emmon Frey? The Tullys don't have anything for anyone to inherit. The other River lords are not happy about the situation, but they did just lose a war. Really, the king decides who gets what. Because of this, the Tully's will have to depend upon whoever replaces Tommen to get their title and lands back. Oops, hope it isn't Dany.

Nope.  The point still stands.  The Freys hold the Riverlands only because of the threat from the Lannister army and the hostages.  The whole place is near open rebellion as is and without someone else's army and hostages to keep them in line the Riverlands are likely to rise up against them.

If a new King (or Queen) sits on the Iron Throne, or if a Stark shows up with a Northern or Valeman army, the Freys are going to find out sharpish that they completely lack the support to enforce their rule.

[Lord Varys]

It is quite likely the Tullys will retake Riverrun in the very near future, but this is no guarantee that they will ever regain the rule over the Riverlands again. It could very well be, but if the Vale were to declare for Aegon in the coming struggles a victorious King Aegon would most likely confirm Littlefinger as Lord of Harrenhal and Lord Paramount of the Trident. While quite a few Riverlords might also declare for Aegon the Vale has much more fresh troops - troops who might prove crucial in the coming battles which, in turn, would entitle the man who brought them to Aegon's cause to a much greater reward than the Riverlords.

A King Aegon or Queen Daenerys could even decide to give the Riverlands - and both Riverrun and Harrenhal - to a completely new house, either some newly ennobled house (say, a very trusted general), or even one of the old Riverlord lines who declare for the Targaryens very early after either Aegon or Daenerys show up in Westeros. Such people are very likely to get more than ample rewards when the wars are over. If Edmure is smart he'll jump on the Targaryen ship as quickly as he can. He had nothing to do with his father's treason, after all, but we don't know whether he is smart enough for that.

Now, what's going to happen at the very end of the series is completely unclear. Littlefinger is most likely going to die, and as of yet there is no reason to believe he might leave an heir of his own body (as far as we know he has no relatives). But if he were actually to impregnate Sansa and have a child by her such a child might actually inherit all his titles.

And if Edmure were not to survive the series (Catelyn most likely won't) then Sansa would a very likely claimant to Riverrun anyway. If Winterfell goes to one of the boys, say, Rickon, then Sansa could lay claim to Riverrun and the Riverlands as the eldest daughter of the eldest child of Hoster Tully, even if she was never married to the Lord of Harrenhal.

[bent branch]

12 hours ago, Ser_Jon_General said:

Nope.  The point still stands.  The Freys hold the Riverlands only because of the threat from the Lannister army and the hostages.  The whole place is near open rebellion as is and without someone else's army and hostages to keep them in line the Riverlands are likely to rise up against them.

If a new King (or Queen) sits on the Iron Throne, or if a Stark shows up with a Northern or Valeman army, the Freys are going to find out sharpish that they completely lack the support to enforce their rule.

Okay, you know about the hostages, but you still think they are going to rise against the throne.
 

Quote

 

"I gave the Blackfish warning. I told him Edmure would die unless the castle yielded. I had this gallows built, to show them that Ser Ryman Frey does not make idle threats. At Seagard my son Walder did the same with Patrek Mallister and Lord Jason bent the knee, but ... the Blackfish is a cold man. He refused us, so..."

"...you hanged Lord Edmure?" - AFFC - Chapter 38

 

Why do you think a stalwart fellow like Jason can be swayed by these hostages, but the other River lords can't. The hostages will hold down the rebels most effectively. Theon worked against Balon, Patrek against Jason, Wylis against Wyman. As long as there are hostages the Riverlands won't be rising again anytime soon. It is easier to name families in the North and Riverlands that don't have a hostage with the Lannisters than do.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is quite likely the Tullys will retake Riverrun in the very near future, but this is no guarantee that they will ever regain the rule over the Riverlands again. It could very well be, but if the Vale were to declare for Aegon in the coming struggles a victorious King Aegon would most likely confirm Littlefinger as Lord of Harrenhal and Lord Paramount of the Trident. While quite a few Riverlords might also declare for Aegon the Vale has much more fresh troops - troops who might prove crucial in the coming battles which, in turn, would entitle the man who brought them to Aegon's cause to a much greater reward than the Riverlords.

A King Aegon or Queen Daenerys could even decide to give the Riverlands - and both Riverrun and Harrenhal - to a completely new house, either some newly ennobled house (say, a very trusted general), or even one of the old Riverlord lines who declare for the Targaryens very early after either Aegon or Daenerys show up in Westeros. Such people are very likely to get more than ample rewards when the wars are over. If Edmure is smart he'll jump on the Targaryen ship as quickly as he can. He had nothing to do with his father's treason, after all, but we don't know whether he is smart enough for that.

Now, what's going to happen at the very end of the series is completely unclear. Littlefinger is most likely going to die, and as of yet there is no reason to believe he might leave an heir of his own body (as far as we know he has no relatives). But if he were actually to impregnate Sansa and have a child by her such a child might actually inherit all his titles.

And if Edmure were not to survive the series (Catelyn most likely won't) then Sansa would a very likely claimant to Riverrun anyway. If Winterfell goes to one of the boys, say, Rickon, then Sansa could lay claim to Riverrun and the Riverlands as the eldest daughter of the eldest child of Hoster Tully, even if she was never married to the Lord of Harrenhal.

What would be the point of this story-wise? The Tullys just had control of Riverrun which they voluntarily gave up. If the Tullys take back Riverrun by force anytime soon, they end up in siege situation again. Story-wise, why would GRRM do this? What purpose would be served?

[Lord Varys]

55 minutes ago, bent branch said:

What would be the point of this story-wise? The Tullys just had control of Riverrun which they voluntarily gave up. If the Tullys take back Riverrun by force anytime soon, they end up in siege situation again. Story-wise, why would GRRM do this? What purpose would be served?

The hostages in the Twins have effectively been released (they will be freed by the outlaws on the way to KL), Forley Prester's men escorting Edmure, Roslin, Jeyne, and her mother to Casterly Rock will be attacked by Catelyn's people, too, and Tom will ensure that Catelyn's people will also retake KL.

AFfC did not set the stage for Lannister victory, it laid the ground for defeat.

With Aegon coming they won't have the men to retake the Riverlands again, even if they wanted to. Which is unlikely anyway, in light of the fact that Cersei is right now surrounded by other enemies she is likely going to want to deal with first.

[bent branch]

5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The hostages in the Twins have effectively been released (they will be freed by the outlaws on the way to KL), Forley Prester's men escorting Edmure, Roslin, Jeyne, and her mother to Casterly Rock will be attacked by Catelyn's people, too, and Tom will ensure that Catelyn's people will also retake KL.

AFfC did not set the stage for Lannister victory, it laid the ground for defeat.

With Aegon coming they won't have the men to retake the Riverlands again, even if they wanted to. Which is unlikely anyway, in light of the fact that Cersei is right now surrounded by other enemies she is likely going to want to deal with first.

You made a lot of assumptions about what is going to happen while not answering my question. You assume that Catelyn's band of outlaws will release all the hostages AND Edmure and Jeyne. Are there really that many of them? Anyhow, my question was, "What is the point of having Riverrun fall and then almost immediately returning the Tullys to the same situation? What was the point having Riverrun fall in the first place story-wise?"

[Lord Varys]

5 minutes ago, bent branch said:

You made a lot of assumptions about what is going to happen while not answering my question. You assume that Catelyn's band of outlaws will release all the hostages AND Edmure and Jeyne. Are there really that many of them? Anyhow, my question was, "What is the point of having Riverrun fall and then almost immediately returning the Tullys to the same situation? What was the point having Riverrun fall in the first place story-wise?"

Setting up the Lannisters to fail? Creating the background for a feast of revenge? Illustrate the fact the the Goddess of War is pretty fickle? It seems to me that's one of those.

[bent branch]

5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Setting up the Lannisters to fail? Creating the background for a feast of revenge? Illustrate the fact the the Goddess of War is pretty fickle? It seems to me that's one of those.

Sorry, still not seeing it. I don't think GRRM will return to this issue this quickly. Besides, Edmure has a good chance of dying in the prologue. I think the odds he will die are at least 50-50.

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, bent branch said:

Sorry, still not seeing it. I don't think GRRM will return to this issue this quickly. Besides, Edmure has a good chance of dying in the prologue. I think the odds he will die are at least 50-50.

He certainly could die. But Catelyn is still alive, isn't she? Don't you think she is going to reveal that fact to the world eventually, and make her enemies tremble? She kept a pretty low profile since the Epilogue of ASoS.

[bent branch]

53 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

He certainly could die. But Catelyn is still alive, isn't she? Don't you think she is going to reveal that fact to the world eventually, and make her enemies tremble? She kept a pretty low profile since the Epilogue of ASoS.

What difference does it make that Catelyn is "alive"? We are discussing returning the Tullys to Riverrun so that other people could maybe inherit from them. Until they are returned Riverrun from a monarch, no one can inherit Riverrun from them.

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, bent branch said:

What difference does it make that Catelyn is "alive"? We are discussing returning the Tullys to Riverrun so that other people could maybe inherit from them. Until they are returned Riverrun from a monarch, no one can inherit Riverrun from them.

That depends. The Riverlords might not care about the opinion of the Iron Throne. If Catelyn takes it, it will be hers and she could hand it to her freed brother or one of her children.

Sure, the Iron Throne might challenge that - or not. But if it does, the wars are far from over. And Freys are not going to keep that castle.

[Curled Finger]

Playing catch up here.   With regard to Jon potentially being named King in the North...I'm not convinced that title is exclusive to Winterfell dwellers.  Even if Bran or Rickon were Lord of Winterfell Jon could still be a king in the land--one having no effect on the other.  If the KITN is simply ruler of the region and protector of the people, the Starks and Winterfell would fall under those auspices.  But Jon would rather be a Stark than pretty much anything.    Sansa?   Would she settle for a title less than Queen?    Of all the Stark kids Sansa seems the one destined to rule from the top of the food chain.   I could see Jon continuing his work for the Wildlings as a KITN and for the Watch--establishing a real military, rescue missions, food banks--he's got support from the Iron Bank.  The stickler in Jon taking up a king's title is Stannis. Stannis has the main support from the IB.  Jon's agreement was in conjunction for supplying the NW, not the entire North.  Still there is a secret Navy and all the interesting magic in the North.   With the inevitable invasion from Dany, Aegon's campaign, Euron's motives and whatever happens in Kings Landing a KITN in the person of Jon Snow could actually organize the North and possibly the Riverlands against all the wars to come.