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Where does it begin, Pycelle?


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2 minutes ago, Denam_Pavel said:

Whichever side of the argument Pycelle fell on at Duskendale, it does not suggest any ill will towards, let alone betrayal of Rhaegar.

Here is the problem for me, we have only heard the rebels side of the story on the fall of the Targaryens. This means there is the Targaryen side of the story yet to be told. When GRRM has failed to tell one whole side of the story, you can bet there is something there that will change how we feel about things we think we already know well.

I shortcut my answer to Lord Varys not out of animosity, but because he and I have been debating just how much Pycelle betrayed the Targaryens since TWOIAF was published with not much movement on either side. Any reply I made wasn't going to be different from stuff he's already heard. But since you haven't heard my argument, I will shortcut it for you.

1.  Tywin wanted his daughter to be queen.

2.  Aerys refused the marriage.

3.  Rhaegar married Elia. Note that after this, merely replacing Aerys with Rhaegar would not help Tywin get what he wanted, Cersei being queen. For Cersei to be queen at this point, Rhaegar needed to be removed from the line of succession and Viserys made next heir apparent. The age difference between Viserys and Cersei is 10 years, but is this really anymore unlikely than Tommen and Marge's marriage?

4.  The Defiance of Duskendale happened. Note that this is another situation where we hear only one side of the story. We have no idea what the Darklyns thought they could accomplish with this action. During this time, Tywin makes a comment that creates gossip about Rhaegar replacing Aerys. This potentially drives a wedge between Aerys and Rhaegar.

5.  The tournament at Harrenhall occurs. We know there was a wealthy, mysterious backer of the tournament. The rumors were that Rhaegar was behind this tournament in order to remove his father from the throne. However (and I am assuming that Tywin was the wealthy backer), since making Rhaegar king wouldn't make Cersei queen, I am proposing that the reason behind Harrenhall was to get Rhaegar accused and convicted of treason. This would mean Rhaegar was executed and Viserys would be the new heir to the throne. Tywin would get a second shot at making Cersei queen.

As far as Pycelle goes, he himself told Tyrion that he did everything he could to support Tywin ruling. If the marriage between Rhaegar and Cersei or Viserys and Cersei had ever occurred, then Aerys would have died shortly after, leaving a powerful Tywin to manipulated the new young king. And after Cersei gave birth to her first son, her husband would die of a "bad belly" and Tywin would be regent to an infant king. Ta-dah! Pycelle's goal achieved.

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I do like this scenario of Tywin behind the wedge between Aerys and Rhaegar and trying to put Cersei with Viserys, but I think it would be easier to dispose of Elia (frail health, so not much suspicion), help Rhaegar dispose of Aerys and then solidify their pact by the marriage with Cersei. Proud and ruthless as he was, I don't think that regency was Tywin's ultimate goal, he was an efficient Hand and would have remained one, had the king not kept humiliating him. 

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IMO Varys was behind Duskendale and Harrenhall.

He is constantly stirring up shit to bring down the Targaryens and bring in the Blackfyres.

For this he uses proxies all the time.

 

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11 hours ago, bent branch said:

Here is the problem for me, we have only heard the rebels side of the story on the fall of the Targaryens. This means there is the Targaryen side of the story yet to be told. When GRRM has failed to tell one whole side of the story, you can bet there is something there that will change how we feel about things we think we already know well.

I shortcut my answer to Lord Varys not out of animosity, but because he and I have been debating just how much Pycelle betrayed the Targaryens since TWOIAF was published with not much movement on either side. Any reply I made wasn't going to be different from stuff he's already heard. But since you haven't heard my argument, I will shortcut it for you.

1.  Tywin wanted his daughter to be queen.

2.  Aerys refused the marriage.

3.  Rhaegar married Elia. Note that after this, merely replacing Aerys with Rhaegar would not help Tywin get what he wanted, Cersei being queen. For Cersei to be queen at this point, Rhaegar needed to be removed from the line of succession and Viserys made next heir apparent. The age difference between Viserys and Cersei is 10 years, but is this really anymore unlikely than Tommen and Marge's marriage?

4.  The Defiance of Duskendale happened. Note that this is another situation where we hear only one side of the story. We have no idea what the Darklyns thought they could accomplish with this action. During this time, Tywin makes a comment that creates gossip about Rhaegar replacing Aerys. This potentially drives a wedge between Aerys and Rhaegar.

5.  The tournament at Harrenhall occurs. We know there was a wealthy, mysterious backer of the tournament. The rumors were that Rhaegar was behind this tournament in order to remove his father from the throne. However (and I am assuming that Tywin was the wealthy backer), since making Rhaegar king wouldn't make Cersei queen, I am proposing that the reason behind Harrenhall was to get Rhaegar accused and convicted of treason. This would mean Rhaegar was executed and Viserys would be the new heir to the throne. Tywin would get a second shot at making Cersei queen.

As far as Pycelle goes, he himself told Tyrion that he did everything he could to support Tywin ruling. If the marriage between Rhaegar and Cersei or Viserys and Cersei had ever occurred, then Aerys would have died shortly after, leaving a powerful Tywin to manipulated the new young king. And after Cersei gave birth to her first son, her husband would die of a "bad belly" and Tywin would be regent to an infant king. Ta-dah! Pycelle's goal achieved.

Tywin makes a comment that shows he wants Aerys replaced. He doesn't exactly hide the source of the gossip. point 5 is possible but it is just as possible that Rhaegar wants to do something about his father and his madness, Rhaegar is capable of making his own moves too. And we know from Jaime he did have intentions to do something. And still, Pycelle wants to help Tywin. That doesn't mean Tywin lets him on his most ambitious plans long before they are close to completion. Pycelle talks a lot, and by the nature of job is always present in the Red Keep, where Aerys is. Not a great place to store private info. We know of plenty of initiatives Pycelle enacted on his own to help House Lannister but he was rarely following Tywin's express instructions. Tywin plotting against Rhaegar for a period of years with Pycelle in the loop would be uncharacterisic for both of them.

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1 hour ago, TMIFairy said:

IMO Varys was behind Duskendale and Harrenhall.

He is constantly stirring up shit to bring down the Targaryens and bring in the Blackfyres.

For this he uses proxies all the time.

Yes.

Tywin trying to destitute Rhaegar and marry Cersei to Viserys is an interesting theory. As good as Tywin killing Joffrey to avoid another  mad king's rebellion. Logical, but no evidence. First Tywin could not be sure Aerys would chose Cersei over someone else. I understand Tywin would feed for free Varys with everything he knows about Rhaegar's plans. But I don't think he would involve himself in traitorous stuff like Duskendale or Harrenhall.

Someone betrayed Rhaegar (supposing you are not naming him traitor). And this someone was probably Varys. Tyrion may wonder if Pycelle contributed. If so, I'm sure it was not by Tywin's request. Too dangerous stuff, too unreliable man.

Anyway Pycelle and Varys were not friends. Pycelle knew something he couldn't tell. Maybe also why Varys killed him:

There are things I might tell you of that eunuch that would chill your blood.

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2 hours ago, Denam_Pavel said:

Tywin makes a comment that shows he wants Aerys replaced. He doesn't exactly hide the source of the gossip. point 5 is possible but it is just as possible that Rhaegar wants to do something about his father and his madness, Rhaegar is capable of making his own moves too. And we know from Jaime he did have intentions to do something. And still, Pycelle wants to help Tywin. That doesn't mean Tywin lets him on his most ambitious plans long before they are close to completion. Pycelle talks a lot, and by the nature of job is always present in the Red Keep, where Aerys is. Not a great place to store private info. We know of plenty of initiatives Pycelle enacted on his own to help House Lannister but he was rarely following Tywin's express instructions. Tywin plotting against Rhaegar for a period of years with Pycelle in the loop would be uncharacterisic for both of them.

Where did I say Tywin didn't want Aerys removed? Of course he doesn't hide the source of gossip, he wants to make Aerys doubt Rhaegar and him. The rumors were that Aerys and Rhaegar didn't trust one another. The rumors said that there were Aerys' supporters and Rhaegar's supporters. However, Barristan said that although he heard the rumors, no one approached him. So one of our few eye witnesses to Aerys court says there were rumors, but he never saw any evidence they were true.

In fact, this is the crux of the matter, Pycelle admits he betrayed Aerys for Tywin and yet most readers believe what Pycelle had to say about Aerys.

I believe that Pycelle, working in conjunction with the Citadel, was attempting to bring down house Targaryen. I think Pycelle murdered Jaehaerys and all of Aerys and Rhaella's children except for Rhaegar and Viserys. I believe that the maesters of the great houses were encouraging the great houses to form alliances to challenge Aerys authority. Tywin was part of this, he tried to marry Jaime to Lysa Tully. I think it will be revealed that Rickard and Brandon were justifiably executed for treason. I believe that Ned and Robert were engaging in activities that constituted treason and that is why Aerys called for their heads.

Like I said, so far we have only heard one side of the story of Robert's Rebellion. I guarantee you that once we hear the other side of the story the people we are so attached to won't seem as innocent as they do now.

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I believe Pycelle is a Tywin man for sure... but I think he's a bumbler and aside from his close proximity to sensitive information he is 'trusted' to read, know, pass on and advise upon, he mainly is involved in low level plots.  Like involving himself in Myrcella's betrothal plot of Tyrion's, all so he could tell Cersei?  Risky move that yielded lots of information to Tyrion... and that's one instance.  Sure he was useful, but a bit of a liability in some situations.

Anyway... it seems as simple as Pycelle being among Tywin while he administered to the realm so ably.  Surely Pycelle was aware of all the slights by Aerys, so it doesn't surprise me that he evolves into such a Lannister lickspittle, but I have my doubts that Pycelle was involved much with Rhaegar or even in undermining him.  I think Tywin may have pulled a double cross insofar as the premise of Harrenhal's tourney.  Rhaegar I believe went under the premise that there was interest in forming a sort of coalition to peacefully depose/remove Aerys, and I suspect there were some who were honest toward that cause, but because of the interest it drew, and especially Aerys', that coalition as it were got slowed and possibly even derailed and it seems whether or not Tywin was trying to undermine Rhaegar, that was a crucial moment where any movement for the removal of Aerys without hostilities was unable to recover or move quickly enough to alter what ended up occurring that sparked the division and open rebellion.

Pycelle plays a part in the Citadel's goals I'm sure, and with the family's penchant for dabbling in magics it very well may be that the Citadel has been trying to undermine the dynasty for a century or more... perhaps since the abolition of the Faith Militant or as a result of the purge?  Always been a tenuous relationship with religion and the Targs... afterall, Valyrians don't believe in any one if any at all.

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14 hours ago, Denam_Pavel said:

We hear Barristan's and Jon Connington's side of the Rebellion too. They don't make Aerys look good either. I'm curious as to whose perspective you think will.

Yes we do and their view of the rebellion was much less harsh on the Targaryen's.

1.  Barristan said that there were rumors that there was a split between Aerys and Rhaegar. But he also says no one approached him from one side or the other. This suggests that the rumor of a split between Aerys and Rhaegar was JUST a rumor and that there was no actual split.

2.  Barristan says he watched Aerys go mad after Duskendale, indicating that Barristan found nothing wrong with Aerys before Duskendale. Pycelle insists that Aerys was that way from the beginning.

3.  JonCon was a part of Aerys' court before Tywin departed. When he was asked to become Hand he had no qualms about accepting. Further, he blames being exiled not on Aerys' "madness", but on his own incompetency.

4.  Although JonCon is acknowledged repeatedly throughout the book as one of Rhaegar's closest associates, JonCon never thinks along the lines of if only they had moved faster to remove Aerys.

These four facts indicate that the rumors spread by Pycelle were mostly exaggerations or out right lies. Here is a challenge that I have given to everyone who claims that the story we've heard is more or less true. Find a quote from the book where someone says it was really Tywin that ran the country who is not a Lannister associate. No one has ever found such a quote. The idea that Tywin was the one really running things is just another Pycelle lie.

ETA: 5. Aerys chose one of Rhaegar's closest friends as Hand. Strongly suggests any animosity between Aerys and Rhaegar was strongly exaggerated.

Really, so much depends upon what facts you pay attention to.

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On 7/11/2017 at 7:12 AM, DarkBastard said:

 

Pycelle was Tywin's man all along...from long before the rebellion.  In TWOIAF it shows repeated glorification of Tywin as Hand of the King in letters Pycelle sent to the Citadel.  And we all know once Rhaegar fell, he was instrumental in getting Aerys to open the gates to Tywin against the cautions of Varys.

 

While he is a  Tywin's man,  he  is not a Lannister's man. He was the only member of the Small Council that disagree with LF, Tyrion, and Cersei plan of  using Shireen in a rumor to slander Stannis( Pycelle seem to believe that using Shireen in a rumor to attack Stannis was crossing the line).

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5 hours ago, Batbob45 said:

While he is a  Tywin's man,  he  is not a Lannister's man. He was the only member of the Small Council that disagree with LF, Tyrion, and Cersei plan of  using Shireen in a rumor to slander Stannis( Pycelle seem to believe that using Shireen in a rumor to attack Stannis was crossing the line).

For sure, agree 100%.  Tywin's man...he really only served Tywin's interests (and his own at times) in KL.

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On 15 July 2017 at 11:20 PM, bent branch said:

Yes we do and their view of the rebellion was much less harsh on the Targaryen's.

1.  Barristan said that there were rumors that there was a split between Aerys and Rhaegar. But he also says no one approached him from one side or the other. This suggests that the rumor of a split between Aerys and Rhaegar was JUST a rumor and that there was no actual split.

2.  Barristan says he watched Aerys go mad after Duskendale, indicating that Barristan found nothing wrong with Aerys before Duskendale. Pycelle insists that Aerys was that way from the beginning.

3.  JonCon was a part of Aerys' court before Tywin departed. When he was asked to become Hand he had no qualms about accepting. Further, he blames being exiled not on Aerys' "madness", but on his own incompetency.

4.  Although JonCon is acknowledged repeatedly throughout the book as one of Rhaegar's closest associates, JonCon never thinks along the lines of if only they had moved faster to remove Aerys.

These four facts indicate that the rumors spread by Pycelle were mostly exaggerations or out right lies. Here is a challenge that I have given to everyone who claims that the story we've heard is more or less true. Find a quote from the book where someone says it was really Tywin that ran the country who is not a Lannister associate. No one has ever found such a quote. The idea that Tywin was the one really running things is just another Pycelle lie.

ETA: 5. Aerys chose one of Rhaegar's closest friends as Hand. Strongly suggests any animosity between Aerys and Rhaegar was strongly exaggerated.

Really, so much depends upon what facts you pay attention to.

The matter of 'who was loyal to Rhaegar' and 'who was loyal to Aerys' seems to show there wasn't really any sort of discord between Rhaegar/Aerys. Say for example, Arthur Dayne and Oswell Whent where Rhaegar's best friends and (as far as we know) loyal to Rhaegar. Then there was Barristan Selmy and Gerold Hightower who were loyal to Aerys but would ALSO follow anything Rhaegar does (e.g: Hightower stays at the ToJ for one of Rhaegar's heirs and Selmy goes with Rhaegar in battle). Same with Jon Con, he was Rhaegar's best bud, but would also be a willing hand for Aerys and fought battles in Aerys's name. Then there were those like Varys and Pyclle who's loyalty to both Aerys and Rhaegar can be heavily questioned. 

I've always questioned the type of 'trust issues' Rhaegar and Aerys were said to have by Pycelle in the books.  Pycelle says that there were Rhaegar's men and Aerys men (which doesn't seem highly likely - see written above), and that he feared a dance of dragons 2.0. Yet as you said, there are no other characters who seem to say this about Aerys and Rhaegar. Pycelle even says Rhaegar moved away to live on Dragonstone because he distrusted Aerys. But was this the real reason Rhaegar moved away? After all, it wouldn't be strange for a prince to live in his own castle, other princes (especially in this world of ASOIAF) in the past had done the same. 

Furthermore, Aerys trusted Rhaegar enough to let him command the whole Targearyen army at the trident; why would Aerys send Rhaegar in particular when he could send any of his other loyal lickspittles? Aerys also is not reported of calling back Rhaegar when he was said to have kidnapped Lyanna. In fact, Aerys doesn't call for Rhaegar until after the battle of the bells, which was like 6-7 months AFTER Rhaegar disappears with Lyanna. So clearly, Aerys doesn't seem to be to bothered about what his son and heir was up to, maybe he was even partly aware of Rhaegar's plans and they made a negotiation, something like "you can have your wolf girl if you do this and that," or "I'll fight for you on the trident father, only if you do this and this." It's not totally unrealistic of you think about the dynamics between Rhaegar and Aerys - whilst NOT taking into account whatever Pycelle says or writes about them. How reliable is he after all? He regards Tywin as a godly, merciful, just and the best type of ruler Westeros can have - so I would say not very much.

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