Daenerys Demurred

[The Bard of Banefort]

Dany's preoccupation with Quaithe's riddle (as seen with Quentyn) is one of the reasons why I don't necessarily think she'll take Tyrion on as an adviser. She was warned not to trust the "lion" and so far she's been following Quaithe and the Undying's warnings to the letter. 

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

That she thinks about them on any level means she is thinking about them. Those thoughts and images are in her stream of consciousness.

Sure, but unlike people like Daemon II Blackfyre, Aemon, Jaehaerys II, Rhaegar, Melisandre, Stannis, etc. she does not want to make prophecies true or thinks she understands visions she had. She just lives her life, doing what she wants or considers to be right at this or that moment in time. She is not driven or guides by prophecy, others see as the object of various prophecies. They are the ones prophecy will fuck with, not Daenerys.

And you certainly should note the difference between written prophecy (which may or not be based on prophetic dreams or just delusions some person had in the distant past), the fiery visions of the red priests, prophetic dreams and visions others have, and such you have yourself.

Dany follows her own inner voice/destiny, leading her to hatch the dragon eggs, and she sort of recognizes parallels from the visions and prophecies from the House of the Undying when she sees them (most notably at the gates of Yunkai). But she doesn't seek them out actively nor does she hold such things in particular high regard. Actually, she very much mistrusts sorcerers since Mirri Maz Duur and Pyat Pree betrayed her.

8 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

And what does it matter if this is what Rhaegar was obsessed with? If those thoughts of prophecy are happening more frequently in Targaryens, then maybe that means the prophecy is about to happen? Look at how many of the zealot R'hollorist priest are popping up out of the woodwork all while this is happening. Dany is a Targagryen, afterall. According to George, she has accepted the words fire and blood by the end of ADWD.

Sure, she does. But there is no hint that this is a bad thing per se. She will need Fire and Blood to defeat the Others. She will also need Fire and Blood to deal with all those Meereenese who tried to kill her back in ADwD. 

You raised the prophecy angle by referring to Marwyn's quote about prophecy biting off your cock. But that usually happens only to people who let themselves be confused by prophecy, and that's not what Daenerys is doing. Prophecy fucked Rhaegar, Melisandre, Stannis, Aemon, Daemon II Blackfyre. But not Daenerys. She is the object of the prophecy bringing back the dragons. But she did that without even knowing that this was the case. And that's most likely the only way it could work. You cannot want to bring the dragons back. You just have to do it intuitively.

8 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

This is a silly statement, Lord Varys. The words in the book all mean something. The visions and words from Qarth, Quaithe, and MMD all mean something to the story. They aren't fluff.

Quaithe's talk isn't all that prophetic. The talk about Dany's future visitors may actually be announcements she made because she overheard or watched certain people with the glass candle she uses to contact Daenerys.

But that aside, those prophecies certainly mean something. But Dany is not obsessed with that.

8 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

That is why she tries to decode them so often. She tries to understand what they are "guidelines" for.

• "A sun in splendor, transfixed by a spear."
  The sun's son. A shiver went through her. "Shadows and whispers." What else had Quaithe said? The pale mare and the sun's son. There was a lion in it too, and a dragon. Or am I the dragon? "Beware the perfumed seneschal." That she remembered. "Dreams and prophecies. Why must they always be in riddles? I hate this. Oh, leave me, ser. Tomorrow is my wedding day."
• The pale mare. Daenerys sighed. Quaithe warned me of the pale mare's coming. She told me of the Dornish prince as well, the sun's son. She told me much and more, but all in riddles. "I cannot rely on plague to save me from my enemies. Set Pretty Meris free. At once."

This isn't the only time she says something like this, just the one I found quickly.

Yeah, sure, she thinks about them somewhat, and she recognizes it when they come true. But she doesn't really seek them out nor does she use them as guidelines for her actions. Those things don't really tell her anything. I mean, give me a prophecy who is going to show up to my birthday. Does this help me in knowing what I should do with those people when they arrive. Dany knowing that this or that guy is going to show up doesn't help her at all in deciding what to do with him. Should she have married Quentyn? Should she listen to Tyrion when they finally meet or feed him to Drogon?

8 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

• "The only palace I desire is the red castle at King's Landing, my lord Pyat." Dany was wary of the warlock; the maegi Mirri Maz Duur had soured her on those who played at sorcery. "And if the great of Qarth would give me gifts, Xaro, let them give me ships and swords to win back what is rightfully mine."
• "Yet I must have some army," Dany said. "The boy Joffrey will not give me the Iron Throne for asking politely."

And Dany seems to realize her father lost the throne. She mentions something similar to this in an other instance, but I can't think of the exact wording at the moment:

• Some of her sellswords smelled as if they had not washed or changed their clothes since her father lost the Iron Throne,

Well, she has a blood claim to the Iron Throne, just as the Starks think they still have a claim to Winterfell never mind the fact that they were cast down by their enemies and attainted as traitors and rebels.

The problem with that idea that Daenerys only cares about her right is clearly wrong. If that was the case she would have taken the Unsullied and the gold and other things the other slaver cities had to offer instead of continuing to free slaves she essentially had nothing to do with.

Back in ACoK she was still completely alone in the world, with essentially no friends and allies. All she had to look forward was this Westeros her brother had been talking about. But that's a thing of the past. She could have gone there in ADwD, she finally had enough ships to leave Slaver's Bay to itself but she didn't go.

And now that she is likely to take over the Dothraki she would have even less of an incentive to go to Westeros. I mean, would you go to the end of the world to wage a war there that might very well be a logistical nightmare if you could instead take over an entire continent where you are right now. If you control all the Dothraki all cities on the mainland of Essos are yours. You would have that kind of power.

She may still have the intention to eventually integrate Westeros in her growing empire in such scenario but she wouldn't have any incentive to go there and seek for a home. Not, if she is now 'a Dothraki' and should thus feel completely comfortable among them.

There has to be another explanation, and that's where Marwyn is going to come into play. Somebody will tell her that the people of Westeros - and the entire world - are in danger, and that she is part of the solution to this great problem. She will connect the dots when she is told about the promised prince prophecy. After all, she has seen Rhaegar talking about that.

She certainly may also come as a conqueror to Westeros. But not because she wants this Iron Throne so bad. But as a conqueror who is going to offer her people help. If the lives of Aegon, Cersei, Euron, Stannis, etc. reject that help and attack her she will have to fight back. 

I mean, winter has come now, it will also come to Essos long before she gets on the way. Why on earth should she not wait for her Westerosi conquest idea for next spring? She could conquer all of Essos in the meantime where the climate is milder. A winter campaign is always pretty difficult, often close to suicide. You have to have a very good reason for that.

8 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Jon was taught the ways of Westeros like every other noble child in the country. He has much more knowledge of the culture, laws, methods, houses, sigils, etc than Daenerys does. Dany doesn't even sound Westerosi with her Tyroshi accent. Not that the accent is a big issue, but when added to everything else, it makes her more of a stranger, except to those scattered houses that may support a Targ who doesn't burn them.

Jon isn't a noble child. He got some education from Luwin, sure, but he wasn't groomed to rule by Ned. Ned kept Robb close, not Robb and Jon. Luwin's lessons certainly would have been more thorough on Westerosi noble families than Viserys' talk about Westeros, but Dany certainly has a pretty decent picture of the more prominent castles and families of Westeros. She hasn't seen Harrenhal, Casterly Rock, or Highgarden, of course, nor has she met any Whents, Lannisters, or Tyrells. But neither has Jon Snow. So I really don't see that point.

Besides, Dany has Selmy to teach her, and will eventually also get Tyrion and Marwyn. Jon has, well, nobody to explain to him how the truly powerful people of Westeros think.

8 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Puh-leeeez! I just gave you text. Apparently you are back to childish nursery school debate with me again. Thanks.

Daenerys is headed back to the Dothraki, according to George, for most of TWOW. She eats like them, has her bloodriders, has their myths and prophecies on her mind, bestowed her marriage gifts to them, wants her Dothraki husband back, etc, etc. Sorry that you can't see that.

But that all doesn't mean she will act like a Dothraki. Stannis also used sorcery to murder his own brother in ACoK 'because the throne is his by right', and then suddenly changed his approach after talking to Davos and getting information on the situation at the Wall. If you make proclamations that Dany associating herself with the Dothraki also *means* she has to or will use their methods and become *evil* because she does that you are simply wrong. It could mean that, but this is no argument or even evidence that it *has to* mean that.

Just as Robb promising to marry a Frey daughter in AGoT didn't *have to* mean that he actually kept that promise (and I thought when reading that that he surely wouldn't be as stupid as to marry another woman instead).

8 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

I don't doubt idol worship will happen on some level. I think this is part of her slide into fire and blood. Also, if you remember, the unsullied also worship a warrior woman goddess. And you think this means something good in the story? Ok

Daenerys is many things, but not a warrior. Hero worship has nothing to do with Fire and Blood. The Starks are worshiped by the clansmen, too, the outlaws in the Riverlands worshiped Beric and converted to Thoros' faith because of the powers his god apparently demonstrated, and Dany is going to be worshiped because of the dragons. They are real, you know, not just some illusion. And Daenerys gives all those slaves hope for a better future.

8 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

By the way, this is the third, if not fourth George story where he has used this same exact archetype of idol worship gone afoul. Same broad strokes, most of the same small strokes, the same "lightbringer", the same child/less issues, the same culture issues, the same sigil use, blood betrayal... and it is never a good thing in the end. There is a reason why George has set this Dany arc up as a third issue in the series, after the main issue of the Others.

The Others will be dealt with after Daenerys has taken the Iron Throne. That is the outline of the story.

8 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Wow. That is a lot of wishful thinking.

It is just basic arithmetic. We know those fleets are out there, and if the cities are taken the ships will belong to Dany.

8 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Sure, she may get some of this, she does have to make to Westeros, afterall. And what is the purpose of bringing this many Dothraki to Westeros if not to invade and fight? And how is depelting the resources of the Essosi coastline in anyway a good thing to do? That would be her stepping on those "under" her for her own self righteous purpose IF she did that.

She will take those men to Westeros to help fight against the Others, of course. And to save humanity you have to crush some people. Just as you can't hope to end slavery in a slaver society without, you know, crushing the slavers.

8 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

This means all of the fighting against her is taking place on one coast with the sea at their backs and the opponent blocking off the land in front of them. How is she going to get anywhere? This doesn't sound right, at all.

All she needs is some sort of landing zone, or a couple of those. That this works we see perfectly well with Aegon in ADwD. And considering the amount of men she might have she could easily enough to send khalasars all over the place. Say, one to the Vale, one to take KL, one to the Stormlands, etc. The idea that anybody in Westeros could coordinate a concentrated effort against such an invasion is ridiculous. That would have been pretty much impossible back when the Realm was strong and sort of united under Robert. But it should be completely impossible after everybody has been as weakened as they were.

8 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

She is now also a Dothraki, as she shows by her consuming the horse as the Dothraki do, amongst the other things listed already. All of the main characters are something in addition to their sigil.

The eating habits of the people don't symbolize their world view. Or is Bran suddenly an evil cannibal just because he once ate the meat of traitors to not lose his strength in a very precarious position?

8 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Whoah, whoah, whoah!!!!  I give you text that includes Dany's words to her feelings and then you give this paragraph of pure wishful thinking fan fiction without any proof and we are supposed to just accept this is truth? That is quite hypocritical.

Well, that is the direction in which her arc seems to be going. I'm surprised about this Vaes Dothrak thing myself, but the vision in the House of the Undying about the dosh khaleen is pretty obvious.

8 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Last time she began her Dothraki culture infusion, and now she is going back there, and now according to you it is to destroy their culture.

And now Dany is not just a "breaker of chains" but a breaker of culture??? Wow. Just wow.

The destruction of culture means that she will unite them under her power. They will accept a woman as their ruler, just as those Dothraki who became her bloodriders after she hatched the dragon eggs did. That went against everything they believe in yet they did it anyway. And the Dothraki will follow her everywhere, if the Stallion that Mounts the World says that the sea is not dangerous and that they should go into the ships, they will go into the ships.

[The Commentator]

22 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

And yet in the current story we have two, three if you count Bran which I do but for the sake of this discussion I will stick to Jon and Daenerys, people with an arc moving to either conquering or ruling. One yearns for the throne, one has never had a real thought about it because he is not seeking it out.

Based on my experience, people who want the job do better at it.  I find it silly that Jon's fans think it is an asset for him because he doesn't want the throne.  He got fired from his last job as lord commander.  There is no reason to think he will do better managing a kingdom. 

At the end of ADWD, Dany has become a Dothraki, she eats the fire and blood of the horse, as the Dothraki do. The Dothraki do not rule, they rape, pillage, steal gods, and lay waste to the land they touch.

Bran eats people while in the warg state.  Wyman Manderly, the darling of many Stark fans, is a cannibal.  The Dothraki culture will change.  They have seen the stallion, their God.  And she brings change.  The purpose of the Dothraki in the story will be to enforce the ban on the slave trade, which is coming. 

 

23 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Dany is the one sweeping through with the power of dragons, as she follows prophecy and messages told to her, and she is good at that part. But so far she has left chaos in her wake. She arrives, does the Targ bow or burn thing, then leaves, and chaos ensues. She has not even ended slavery. She has just moved the source from homegrown to global.

Slaver's Bay is a work-in-progress.  Ending the slave trade will require the dismantling of the Masters' way of life.  All of the problems are caused by the masters resisting change.  They don't want to embrace what is right but rather they want to continue oppressing and owning the weak.  Bear in mind that putting an end to the slave trade is the single greatest change that anyone has ever tried to bring about in Planetos.  No amount of planning and waiting could have made the forced transition any less chaotic.  There is nothing that anybody can offer those Masters to replace slavery.  All the gold in Casterly Rock will not convince them to abandon slaving.  Slavery is much more than an economy.  It is a social system and a way of life that grants the masters absolute control over the less-fortunate.  It elevates their status and gives them the feeling of superiority.  It allows the Owning Class to live like gods.  Telling them to free the slaves and coexisting with them side by side is like asking a farmer to free his livestock and to treat them as equals from this day forward.  Those evil masters are not going to accept that.  Have no doubt that they will fight to the death.  Each day that slavery is allowed to continue results in thousands of deaths and suffering in the many Plazas of Punishments in the bay area.  Slavery will become illegal and its practice will be greatly reduced.  But it cannot be accomplished without a lot of bloodshed.  It's more than changing the economy.  It is a social upheaval that must happen in order to give the slaves freedom.  Skahaz Mo Kandaq recognized this and chose to support change.  It will get better even if the resistant masters are all dead because as we read, it is actually the slaves who were doing everything.  The masters are not really needed. 

While it is usually better to try a peaceful approach, some things are worth fighting for.  George himself is not a complete pacifists.  He would have fought against the Nazis if he had lived during WWII.  Dany's war against the masters is really the only completely justified war in the story. 

[The Fattest Leech]

 

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Others will be dealt with after Daenerys has taken the Iron Throne. That is the outline of the story.

And you think this wasn't part of the outline of those other archetypes as well? Just change the furniture in her arc and it is the same story. Same for many other characters, and that is in part why I think George feels he knows where the broad strokes of the story are headed... because he wrote them out before.

 

[Lord Varys]

18 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

Dany's preoccupation with Quaithe's riddle (as seen with Quentyn) is one of the reasons why I don't necessarily think she'll take Tyrion on as an adviser. She was warned not to trust the "lion" and so far she's been following Quaithe and the Undying's warnings to the letter. 

Nay, she was warned about the Perfumed Seneschal, not Tyrion. And that is a very curious warning in any case, considering that it could be the ship Moqorro and Tyrion took to get to her, or at least a good part to get to her. But Quaithe talks about both Tyrion - the lion - and Moqorro - the dark flame - separately, so neither of them is most likely meant. Now, if that ship was meant (and not the literal perfumed seneschal, Reznak mo Reznak) then it most likely refers to a person on board rather than the ship itself since it didn't even make it to Meereen (they are captured by the slavers, after all). Penny and her pigs were most likely not meant. The only other person not mentioned by Quaithe at all would be Jorah. Depending how things turn for both Daenerys and him there might be a reason why Dany should not exactly trust him. Note that the widow of the waterfront is also reluctant to trust him. She only agrees to get them all to Meereen after she realizes that the dwarf is Tyrion.

4 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

And you think this wasn't part of the outline of those other archetypes as well? Just change the furniture in her arc and it is the same story. Same for many other characters, and that is in part why I think George feels he knows where the broad strokes of the story are headed... because he wrote them out before.

I can't follow you here. He has the broad strokes, and those strokes seem to suggest we first get a Second Dance of Dragons which should result in Dany's victory, or sort of victory, and then the War for the Dawn. Unless the guys fighting the Others all die in that fight the ruler of Westeros will be clear afterwards. It will be one of those guys, either the people already in charge of everything, or their acknowledged heirs.

Only if all the inner circle of the heroes die will it be necessary to determine a new ruler. Quite honestly, blood and nobility, etc. won't matter all that much in this scenario. Lets say Jon and Dany both die in the last battle then their closest adviser and ally most likely could claim the power simply by virtue of being close to them. I doubt a blood relation has to be necessary in this kind of thing. When the survival of everyone is at stake things do change.

The game of thrones might begin again eventually, but only years or even decades after the fight against the Others is over. Anything else would be very unrealistic.

[Here's Looking At You, Kid]

The key to survival is working together.  I don't mean work only with people you like.  The people of Westeros, the north in particular, are not in any position to be choosy.  At least they shouldn't be if they had the sense that God gave to a goose.  It's the height of stupidity to refuse help from the Dothraki (best cavalry in the world) when the Ww just converted your neighbors into zombies and your address is their next place to call on.  It's also stupid to turn away the woman who controls three dragons.  They have no reason to oppose Dany.  It's not as if they've had good leadership in recent times.  All the leaders they've had recently were fools :  Robert, Joffrey, Renly, Robb, Balon, Jon.  So they don't have any good reason to turn away a dragon riding Targaryen.  The people would have no issues bowing to a Targaryen any more than they would to a Baratheon or a Stark.  They will actually prefer the Targaryens considering all the suffering that the war between the stags and the wolves caused.  The small folk will rebel against the great houses if the high lords are foolish enough to ask them to fight the woman who can bring them hope. 

[The Hoare]

On 13/07/2017 at 9:14 PM, Lord Varys said:

I think I laid it out a little bit above:

1. There are hints they want to worship dragons and be close to them (Dragon of the North, Drogo's marriage to Dany, worship of the Mother of Dragons).

I don't see this hint. The Dragon of the North was just a khal that burned a city, it doesn't mean that the dothraki want to worship them, no more than the dornish want to worship vipers(the "Red Viper").

We don't know why Drogo married Dany. All we have is speculation.

Besides, it's a very small number of dothraki that actualy worship her, mostly the ones that decided to stay with her even after the witch used blood magic(which is illegal), so they're not really the typical dothraki.

On 13/07/2017 at 9:14 PM, Lord Varys said:

2. Daenerys is a dragonrider now.

The valyrians of old had dragons, but the dothraki didn't worshipped them.

On 13/07/2017 at 9:14 PM, Lord Varys said:

3. There is the prophecy of the Stallion that Mounts the World.

A dragon is not a stallion, and the stallion itself is the male gender of horse. How can a woman claim to be a stallion?

On 13/07/2017 at 9:14 PM, Lord Varys said:

In combination with the vision from the House of the Undying that depicts this

we can be reasonably sure that Daenerys will bend the dosh khaleen to her will. 

The House of Undying is unreliable. It shows past, future and what could've been. It maybe very well be the reaction of the dosh khaleen for Dany being the mother of Rhaego(which was supposed to be the Stallion until his death).

[Lord Varys]

18 minutes ago, The Hoare said:

I don't see this hint. The Dragon of the North was just a khal that burned a city, it doesn't mean that the dothraki want to worship them, no more than the dornish want to worship vipers(the "Red Viper").

It does mean that they like being compared to and associated with the dragons. Sure, that doesn't mean that any Dothraki likes that comparison or association but it is a hint. George could have picked any nickname for that guy.

18 minutes ago, The Hoare said:

We don't know why Drogo married Dany. All we have is speculation.

We can be pretty sure it wasn't an accident. And if he had a preference for silver-god hair and purple eyes he could have picked any girl in Lys and quite a few in Volantis. But he wanted a Targaryen princess.

18 minutes ago, The Hoare said:

Besides, it's a very small number of dothraki that actualy worship her, mostly the ones that decided to stay with her even after the witch used blood magic(which is illegal), so they're not really the typical dothraki.

Those who stayed only stayed because they were too old or too young to leave. And even her khas were determined to become her bloodriders before she hatched the eggs. Afterwards they forgot their culture and worshiped her. All of them. They are not special 'Daenerys Dothraki', they just witnessed a special event. And Dany and Drogon might have a similar effect on the other members of Drogo's old khalasar making up Jhaqo's horde now, and all the other Dothraki, too.

18 minutes ago, The Hoare said:

The valyrians of old had dragons, but the dothraki didn't worshipped them.

The Dothraki didn't yet exist as a people before the Doom. There would have been precursors and the like but Doshi and Mengo only united them during the Century of Blood. Prior to that they were a small people which essentially only controlled the lands around Vaes Dothrak. Much of the Grasslands was under the control of the Sarnori back then, and Valyria wasn't exactly in the neighborhood.

But I'd not be surprised if those pre-Dothraki lived in awe and terror of the dragonlords. Most of Essos would have, in those days.

18 minutes ago, The Hoare said:

A dragon is not a stallion, and the stallion itself is the male gender of horse. How can a woman claim to be a stallion?

By making it so with fire and blood?

18 minutes ago, The Hoare said:

The House of Undying is unreliable. It shows past, future and what could've been. It maybe very well be the reaction of the dosh khaleen for Dany being the mother of Rhaego(which was supposed to be the Stallion until his death).

I'd agree with that in principle, and I overlooked that particular vision for a very long time, at times confusing it with a flashback to Dany's own bath in the Womb of the World. But now that Dany has gone back to the Dothraki Sea that scene is very likely to come true. And quite frankly, it is very likely that all of the vision depicting not depicting events or people in a symbolic manner will become true in a literal sense, just as all the prophecies the Undying spoke will come true (the three fires, mounts, treasons, etc.). That was the point of the entire scene. If half of them turns out to be nonsense the whole thing was a waste of time. And the vast portion of the prophecies and visions we got so far came true, especially those by the Ghost of High Heart, but also quite a few from the House of the Undying (the Mhysa scene, for instance, and we saw the cloth dragon show up).

Only those clearly identifiable as alternative time line visions - like the vision of a grown-up Rhaego, for instance - won't come true.

And there are other hints as well, most notably the original outline which spells out that Dany will come to rule the Dothraki. Her last chapter also very much foreshadows that she will go back to Vaes Dothrak and the dosh khaleen. The whole plot line of her having to go back to go forward. To be able to do what she wants she has to settle old scores.

[dregs4NED]

My, this thread has taken some interesting turns! Allow me to reorient it a bit by expanding on some things:

Timescale

There is still a long way to go from the end of aDwD to when Daenerys lands in Westeros, as we must consider:

• Going to Vaes Dothrak and gaining a Khalasar
• Returning and squashing the siege on Meereen
• Meet with Tyrion
• Encounter Victarion, the Iron Fleet, and the horn Dragonbiner
• Wrap of Meereen, which includes actually deciding to leave the city to head west, and settling the politics concerning slavery.
• Pass by ways of Volantis (maybe encounter the Widow of the Waterfront), Pentos (Illyrio and the Tattered Prince), as they are by way-of-sea to King's Landing.

It will likely take the entire length of the next book until her conquest actually begins, meaning everything in the original post has a limit of one book's length, the last book in the series. In aDoS, Dany will have to:

• Land ashore, establish camp
• Encounter other armies/banners and deal with (f)Aegon
• Siege & conquer the capital
• Integrate her army (including dragons) with the population and the Faith
• Hold coronation, politic, and rule while attempting to stabilize the peace.

In this thread, I have read expectations of Daenerys to learn about the Other War hundreds and hundreds of leagues away, to be irrefutably convinced that the threat is real, to take course of action by abandoning King's Landing (leaving it in the hands of who?) to head North, and wade through all the complexities that follow from there.

In my opinion, this is too much for one book, to have Daenerys transmuting her destiny from taking the Iron Throne into fighting the Others, to elevate her from brutal conqueror (injecting a completely foreign army is going to be wicked) to savior of Westeros, whether she heads North to do it or stay in King's Landing.

Instead, Dany's last chapter is going to be about making a choice for herself after a conquest that delivers disillusionment to Dany's core.

The scene of Asshai will not appear on the page, that is true. But it was offered as an exit plan long ago as in to contrast Dany's choice to head to King's Landing. And when Daenerys comes to acceptance of her disillusionment in Westeros, she will have the choice to seek the "truth" that Quaithe has promised her in Asshai.

What that truth is, I do not know. It could be about the nature of dragonglass, the secrets of Old Valyria, of what it means to be a Targaryen, or something about dragons. 

Food

Food is going to be a problem, due to the WotFK and winter. That is without dispute. Some comments here suggest that Daenerys should attain provisions from Essos and bring them on over to solve the problem. I believe that it's a logistically unlikely.

First thing's first, Daenerys must be able to anticipate the food crisis in Westeros. She needs recognizes the dire need to transport every ounce of food she can find and act on it. Second part, she needs to acquire it. Trading for it will be a pipe dream, and she doesn't have the timeframe to go conquering Essos to steal all of their food. 

But even if she does get her hands on food, she will never have enough to feed her own army and the commonfolk through a sustainable length of time. Especially not under a single trip. House Tyrell had regular shipments of food to the capital, but there was still a crisis. She needs to establish a network between King's Landing and Pentos (or somewhere less proximate and more cooperative) to constantly ship food to the capital. Or, she needs to establish alliances in Westeros that can replenish food regularly.

Also to add: when will rationing start? How tight will she squeeze the belt? How cooperative will everyone be?

Alliances

To understand who might support Daenerys, it is prudent to start from who supported Dany's father during Robert's Rebellion.

These are House Tyrell, Martell, Darry, Ryger, Mooton, Goodbrook, Connington, Cafferen, Fell, Grandison, Grafton, Tarly, Redwyne, Merryweather, Chelsted, Grimm, Hewitt, Serry, Chester, and  Rowan.

I wouldn't mind going into each house, but it takes a bit of time for me to write, and for you to read through. Suffice to say, but a majority of these houses are either extinct, hostage, at the Wall, or about to swear allegiance to (f)Aegon. Some of these houses are actually viable supporters, but I'm not concerned with military strength, but rather to be able to help feed King's Landing under Dany's command.

House Tyrell would be a great ally, considering they're the ones feeding King's Landing. But they have been in bed with both Baratheon and Lannister. Daenerys can bypass the Tyrells and negotiate directly with House Merryweather -- their sigil is a cornucopia and their seat is called Longtable -- who, in a perfect scenario, will not be lured in by (f)Aegon, and ally with Daenerys, giving her all the food that they spare. Even if this does happen, will it be enough? Maybe it'll add another two years of making it through winter, but it's doubtful to say that any house or combination of houses will be enough to be Dany's lifeline.

And this bears repeating: trade will be near impossible once winter is in bloom.

Dragons

Dragons are not immortal. They can take damage and can die. Daenerys only has three dragons. How many undead will it take to kill a dragon? 10k? 100k? 200k? Easy trade each time. The Others will always have the numbers, especially on how Westeros is rife with dead for the Others to harvest soldiers from.

[Hodor the Articulate]

@dregs4NED As I said before, alliances are not static, nor is the state of Westeros. We've seen betrayals and broken alliances in every war so far, and this war shouldn't be any different. I think it's unrealistic for Dany to have no allies in Westeros at all.

On 14/07/2017 at 0:23 AM, Free Northman Reborn said:

No, but you have to understand that an attempt by her to fundamentally change the nature of Westerosi society in a similar way to how she overthrew the social order in Slaver's Bay will make her an antagonist to many of the "hero" POV's as you call them. Readers were drawn to this story because they LIKE the medieval setup of Westeros. Else they would prefer a series set in a different time period or social environment.

Speak for yourself. Yes, I like the quasi-medieval setting, but as any social upheaval will take place at the end of the story, I don't particularly care if there is change or not. And if Dany does take power from the noble class to give to the smallfolk, bloody good for her! A recurring theme of this series is what a bunch of assholes the noble families are. They're not the downtrodden underdogs some readers portray them as - that's the smallfolk.

[Lord Varys]

13 hours ago, dregs4NED said:

My, this thread has taken some interesting turns! Allow me to reorient it a bit by expanding on some things:

Timescale

There is still a long way to go from the end of aDwD to when Daenerys lands in Westeros, as we must consider:

• Going to Vaes Dothrak and gaining a Khalasar
• Returning and squashing the siege on Meereen
• Meet with Tyrion
• Encounter Victarion, the Iron Fleet, and the horn Dragonbiner
• Wrap of Meereen, which includes actually deciding to leave the city to head west, and settling the politics concerning slavery.
• Pass by ways of Volantis (maybe encounter the Widow of the Waterfront), Pentos (Illyrio and the Tattered Prince), as they are by way-of-sea to King's Landing.

It will likely take the entire length of the next book until her conquest actually begins, meaning everything in the original post has a limit of one book's length, the last book in the series. In aDoS, Dany will have to:

• Land ashore, establish camp
• Encounter other armies/banners and deal with (f)Aegon
• Siege & conquer the capital
• Integrate her army (including dragons) with the population and the Faith
• Hold coronation, politic, and rule while attempting to stabilize the peace.

That is a pretty solid list of points that have to be touched upon in some fashion - although it is possible that not all of them will be showed in chapters, nor is it necessary for Daenerys to be there in Slaver's Bay to settle the situation there. It might be that Tyrion, Selmy, Victarion, Marwyn, etc. will do that for her.

The best way to keep people occupied in the region and to continue to unite those disparate faction there would be to continue Dany's crusade against slavery after the Yunkish allies are defeated. The next step would then be to carry the war back to Yunkai to end slaver rule there, and then continue to free the slaves in the other Ghiscari cities, especially New Ghis. They could use the ships from the Iron Fleet to get their troops there, or even those of the Volantenes they should take after the tiger soldiers rebel and join Dany's cause.

Dany's own journey to Vaes Dothrak could encompass the entire first half of the book, and we might not see her succeeding taking control of all the Dothraki there before the second half of the book. And then she would have to go back to Slaver's Bay directly. With Drogon she could move rather quickly but her troops cannot. However, once she has the Dothraki she doesn't have to be with them all the time. She could send various khalasars against Qarth, Qohor, Norvos, Pentos, Myr, and Volantis without accompanying them. They know how to sack cities, after all.

As to her campaign in Westeros - that is very difficult to predict at this point. The idea that she will have to deal with the Faith, face a lot of problems taking KL, face a lot of resistance from the population, etc. are at this point completely baseless. We don't know whether the sparrow movement will live this long, we don't know how popular a King Aegon VI will become, we don't know how hard winter will have hit Westeros by the time Dany arrives, and we don't know how much the wars of the various pretenders will continue to bleed Westeros before Dany even arrives there.

There is certainly a chance that Aegon will become the golden boy of Westeros, uniting large portions of the Realm against Daenerys but even if he does that chances are not that good that he will be able to really draw on a lot of manpower in the middle of winter to actually resist her coming. The best way to deal her a huge blow would to attack her armada before it lands - and that most likely something Euron is going to do, not Aegon. He is the one with the ships. Aegon has no ships at all.

The idea that all this can be done in only two books is ridiculous, of course. And that's the reason why there won't be only two books.

13 hours ago, dregs4NED said:

In this thread, I have read expectations of Daenerys to learn about the Other War hundreds and hundreds of leagues away, to be irrefutably convinced that the threat is real, to take course of action by abandoning King's Landing (leaving it in the hands of who?) to head North, and wade through all the complexities that follow from there.

In my opinion, this is too much for one book, to have Daenerys transmuting her destiny from taking the Iron Throne into fighting the Others, to elevate her from brutal conqueror (injecting a completely foreign army is going to be wicked) to savior of Westeros, whether she heads North to do it or stay in King's Landing.

That would depend on the question whether she is going to come as a conqueror to Westeros at all. Right now she wants to become the ruler of the Dothraki to settle things right in Slaver's Bay. If she ends up ruling all the Dothraki she could build a vast empire in Essos, she doesn't have to go to Westeros. With the power her dragons and the Dothraki give her she could rebuild Valyria.

The Iron Throne is pretty much nothing against this tantalizing prospects, and most people around her - especially the Dothraki but also her Essosi advisers - will push her to do something like that. Selmy couldn't convince her to marry Quentyn or to go to Westeros as soon as possible. Why should Tyrion be able to do that? Because he wants her help to kill his sister?

Dany might even decide that her nephew Aegon is welcome to this savage backwater land. If he is Rhaegar's son he would also be one of Aerys II's heirs, and free her of the obligation to avenge the honor of House Targaryen by reclaiming the Iron Throne. She could instead focus on the things she wants to do.

But if she learns about the threat of the Others from Marwyn this could certainly change all that. She might feel the moral obligation to help her people, especially if she figures out that she is this promised prince whose song is the Song of Ice and Fire her brother had been talking about in his vision. She would also figure out that the reason why she hatched three dragons is to help her people in the fight against the Others.

This is not that difficult to figure out. And George could season the whole thing with her having other prophetic dreams. She already dreamed about herself as Rhaegar fighting an army of enemies armored in ice previously in the books. It is pretty clear that she will play a huge and crucial role in the fight against the Others.

13 hours ago, dregs4NED said:

Instead, Dany's last chapter is going to be about making a choice for herself after a conquest that delivers disillusionment to Dany's core.

The scene of Asshai will not appear on the page, that is true. But it was offered as an exit plan long ago as in to contrast Dany's choice to head to King's Landing. And when Daenerys comes to acceptance of her disillusionment in Westeros, she will have the choice to seek the "truth" that Quaithe has promised her in Asshai.

What that truth is, I do not know. It could be about the nature of dragonglass, the secrets of Old Valyria, of what it means to be a Targaryen, or something about dragons. 

It makes little sense to allow a character like to get off the hook in such a convoluted way. Dany doesn't care about her destiny, or anything grandiose. She just wants her home back, that house with the red door. If she would reject the Iron Throne and her crown in Westeros she would most likely settle in Braavos as a private citizen rather than going to Asshai.

13 hours ago, dregs4NED said:

Food

Food is going to be a problem, due to the WotFK and winter. That is without dispute. Some comments here suggest that Daenerys should attain provisions from Essos and bring them on over to solve the problem. I believe that it's a logistically unlikely.

First thing's first, Daenerys must be able to anticipate the food crisis in Westeros. She needs recognizes the dire need to transport every ounce of food she can find and act on it. Second part, she needs to acquire it. Trading for it will be a pipe dream, and she doesn't have the timeframe to go conquering Essos to steal all of their food. 

She will know that her people and fighting men will need food, especially if she is conducting a military campaign in winter. Selmy knows about the outbreak of the War of the Five Kings, Tyrion about its course, and Marwyn about its aftermath. They will know that they need food. And lots of it, or else they themselves will starve in Westeros.

Second, Daenerys is likely going to take all the Free Cities aside from Lorath and Braavos on her way to Westeros. The Dothraki will take the cities on land, and her fleets will take Lys and Tyrosh. They have to do this to end slavery and the slave trade. In the course of that they will secure a lot of resources on the way, especially by taking control of the assets of Volantis. It is quite likely that a sixth of the population of Volantis - most of the non-slaves - are going to be killed in the uprising of the slaves that's going to precede Dany's arrival there, putting her and her people in the control of vast assets along the Rhoyne and the Orange Shore. Volantis still controls a sizable empire of its own.

That certainly will enable her to ship food to Westeros if that's necessary. And she sure as hell is going to take provisions for herself and her troops. Else they would be fucked from the start.

13 hours ago, dregs4NED said:

But even if she does get her hands on food, she will never have enough to feed her own army and the commonfolk through a sustainable length of time. Especially not under a single trip. House Tyrell had regular shipments of food to the capital, but there was still a crisis. She needs to establish a network between King's Landing and Pentos (or somewhere less proximate and more cooperative) to constantly ship food to the capital. Or, she needs to establish alliances in Westeros that can replenish food regularly.

Westeros will be basically done by the time she arrives. If winter has set in it should be very difficult to impossible to get food imports overland from, say, KL to the West. If the people there starve they will starve and die, there is nothing to be done about that.

But she certainly can bring food via ships to her landing zones and the major coastal towns and cities (although Lannisport is most likely never going to be her top priority).

By the way: The food crisis in KL during ACoK is a joke. If cutting them off from trade is doing that then KL shouldn't even last through a half-year-long winter, never mind a year-winter, or a six-year-winter. This means they have no provisions and stores for their own use in winter, which also entails you actually are dependent on food imports by land or sea in winter, which is a recipe for disaster.

13 hours ago, dregs4NED said:

Alliances

To understand who might support Daenerys, it is prudent to start from who supported Dany's father during Robert's Rebellion.

No, that is the wrong approach. Wars beget strange bedfellows. As it happens, Dany's allies could very well be both houses and people that fought against Aerys II Targaryen and people that are going to fight Prince Aegon in the wars to come.

But as things stand it is not necessarily likely that she needs any allies in Westeros whatsoever. If she has sufficient strength all she needs to do is to take the Iron Throne and demand that people do her homage or take the field against her. And then she and her dragons and Dothraki and other allies will her destroy piece by piece. She doesn't have to involve herself in a ridiculous campaign to conquer even the last village. It should be enough to make it clear that people not bending the knee won't get any help in winter and may even face dragonfire in winter, not to mention her entire strength in the next spring.

13 hours ago, dregs4NED said:

House Tyrell would be a great ally, considering they're the ones feeding King's Landing. But they have been in bed with both Baratheon and Lannister. Daenerys can bypass the Tyrells and negotiate directly with House Merryweather -- their sigil is a cornucopia and their seat is called Longtable -- who, in a perfect scenario, will not be lured in by (f)Aegon, and ally with Daenerys, giving her all the food that they spare. Even if this does happen, will it be enough? Maybe it'll add another two years of making it through winter, but it's doubtful to say that any house or combination of houses will be enough to be Dany's lifeline.

 

The Merryweathers are most likely going to declare for Aegon. It is pretty obvious that Taena and Orton are agents of the Golden Company/Varys in the city.

But surviving branches of House Tyrell (Willas) might very well declare for Aegon, as might quite a few people originally declaring for Aegon - especially if rumors about his true ancestry are spread by then. Or it turns out that he isn't exactly as great a king as people originally believed him to be. Dragons do beat elephants, after all.

Say, Aegon has large portions of Westeros on his side around the time Dany arrives. They don't reach a peaceful settlement. Once he begins the war we are not unlikely to see him being surprised by how many of the people he thought were his men decide to declare for her - just as half the Reach or more declared for Rhaenyra during the First Dance.

13 hours ago, dregs4NED said:

Dragons

Dragons are not immortal. They can take damage and can die. Daenerys only has three dragons. How many undead will it take to kill a dragon? 10k? 100k? 200k? Easy trade each time. The Others will always have the numbers, especially on how Westeros is rife with dead for the Others to harvest soldiers from.

Sure, the Others are a danger for the dragons. But they will work as powerful symbols to show the people of Westeros that Daenerys is the true queen. She is the one who should rule. In the fight against the Others the fighters Dany is bringing to Westeros will be most likely more crucial than her dragons.

8 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

@dregs4NED As I said before, alliances are not static, nor is the state of Westeros. We've seen betrayals and broken alliances in every war so far, and this war shouldn't be any different. I think it's unrealistic for Dany to have no allies in Westeros at all.

Exactly, as it stands right now even Cersei and the Lannisters of Casterly Rock are potential allies of Daenerys. Aegon is going to be the one who casts down Tommen and/or Myrcella, so a Targaryen enemy of Aegon's could be Cersei's friend. Not all that likely due to the fact that Tyrion is with Dany but quite a few of other Westermen could decide to join Dany if that enables them to avenge themselves on Aegon.

8 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Speak for yourself. Yes, I like the quasi-medieval setting, but as any social upheaval will take place at the end of the story, I don't particularly care if there is change or not. And if Dany does take power from the noble class to give to the smallfolk, bloody good for her! A recurring theme of this series is what a bunch of assholes the noble families are. They're not the downtrodden underdogs some readers portray them as - that's the smallfolk.

The smallfolk are indeed the ones who are suffering the most, but there is little chance we see any emancipation there. But what certainly could happen is that the world Daenerys is rebuilding after the war will no longer have any place for the petty ambitions of the various noble families.

[Rondo]

On 7/13/2017 at 10:18 PM, The Bard of Banefort said:

Dany's preoccupation with Quaithe's riddle (as seen with Quentyn) is one of the reasons why I don't necessarily think she'll take Tyrion on as an adviser. She was warned not to trust the "lion" and so far she's been following Quaithe and the Undying's warnings to the letter. 

Dany handles prophecy better than anyone.  She keeps them on the back of her mind but she doesn't allow prophecy to get ahead of common sense.  She gave Quentyn courtesy and offered him friendship.  Someone like Mel and Cersei would go paranoid and kill Quentyn. 

[Lord Varys]

10 minutes ago, Tour De Force said:

Dany handles prophecy better than anyone.  She keeps them on the back of her mind but she doesn't allow prophecy to get ahead of common sense.  She gave Quentyn courtesy and offered him friendship.  Someone like Mel and Cersei would go paranoid and kill Quentyn. 

Or think it is sign that he is the great savior of humanity and she has to fuck/marry him.

Dany and Jon both give a shit about prophecy. Dany learns this when Rhaego's future is undone when Drogo dies, not to mention Rhaego's own death. And Jon shows it even better by simply ignoring Melisandre's talk about prophecy, despite the fact that there are more than a few hints that she has real prophetic powers (she foresaw the arrival of Alys as well as the three eyeless heads).

[dregs4NED]

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

However, once she has the Dothraki she doesn't have to be with them all the time. She could send various khalasars against Qarth, Qohor, Norvos, Pentos, Myr, and Volantis without accompanying them. They know how to sack cities, after all.

I like this thought, a lot.

And Dany can just take a tour upon her dragon to inspect her victories and whatnot. perhaps in POV.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

As to her campaign in Westeros - that is very difficult to predict at this point. The idea that she will have to deal with the Faith, face a lot of problems taking KL, face a lot of resistance from the population, etc. are at this point completely baseless. We don't know whether the sparrow movement will live this long, we don't know how popular a King Aegon VI will become, we don't know how hard winter will have hit Westeros by the time Dany arrives, and we don't know how much the wars of the various pretenders will continue to bleed Westeros before Dany even arrives there.

Please do not dismiss my original post. Obviously, it is all in theory, but it is sourced and grounded within possibility. I have made a prediction, despite the difficulty. Of course, all pieces are still in play and can move around the board. But that doesn't mean I can't spot a potential check-mate several moves ahead. 

But if you want to be rebuked, let's go ahead:

• The sparrow movement will go on indefinitely. To suggest that Daenerys can qualm all the woes of all the commonfolk that drove them to want to bear arms, to feed them all through winter while correcting all the injustices brought upon them during the War of the Five Kings, is more than a stretch in terms of possibility. Because that's what the sparrow movement is, about injustices and empty bellies. Without promised security in both these regards, the sparrows will remain armed. And Dany can't satisfy either of these, as her own army is want their dues, and feeding the population is inevitably doomed.
• King Aegon VI might become popular, yes. But I know one thing, he will have a large stain in his popularity from his own Hand of the King who is covertly bringing greyscale into Westeros. That's a bit more than a simple fly-in-the-soup.
• Winter is already here. A white raven arrived in King's Landing in the epilogue for aDwD. The weather is bad and is getting worse. We can only argue as to whether it will be catastrophic for Daenerys immediately upon landing, when she takes the Iron Throne, or maybe on her very last page.
• Which "various pretenders" are you talking about? And to what extent will it matter how much they have bled or not?

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That would depend on the question whether she is going to come as a conqueror to Westeros at all. Right now she wants to become the ruler of the Dothraki to settle things right in Slaver's Bay. If she ends up ruling all the Dothraki she could build a vast empire in Essos, she doesn't have to go to Westeros. With the power her dragons and the Dothraki give her she could rebuild Valyria.

She has to go to Westeros. She is more than obligated to do so. It's integral to her whole storyline and character. Her main mission in life is revenge, reclamation, and returning to "home", which she believes is in Westeros.

Everything else is derived from her original mission, including setting slaves free and assimilating the Dothraki.

She can rebuild Valyria, that's fine and cool, but only after her original mission has been dispelled. 

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It makes little sense to allow a character like to get off the hook in such a convoluted way. Dany doesn't care about her destiny, or anything grandiose. She just wants her home back, that house with the red door. If she would reject the Iron Throne and her crown in Westeros she would most likely settle in Braavos as a private citizen rather than going to Asshai.

Get off the hook? I'm not sure what you mean, but she does have royal prerogative over anything she wants to do. No one has her over a barrel.

And what part is convoluted? That Daenerys is coming to Westeros with erroneous preconceptions about what she wants, and her realizing this will cause her to backtrack from the Iron Throne?

Braavosi private citizen? That would be like hanging her wings above the fireplace, am I right? I don't think she can do that. Asshai is way more likely.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

She will know that her people and fighting men will need food, especially if she is conducting a military campaign in winter. Selmy knows about the outbreak of the War of the Five Kings, Tyrion about its course, and Marwyn about its aftermath. They will know that they need food. And lots of it, or else they themselves will starve in Westeros.

Selmy hasn't mentioned anything yet, despite knowing better. Let's hope he's still alive when Dany gets back.

Honestly, it's questionable if Daenerys even accepts Tyrion into his service. All she has to hear from him is "I want to rape and kill my sister".

Marwyn just wants a dragon. Not success of Dany's conquest.

They are going to starve in Westeros. At least, so the theory goes.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

By the way: The food crisis in KL during ACoK is a joke. If cutting them off from trade is doing that then KL shouldn't even last through a half-year-long winter, never mind a year-winter, or a six-year-winter. This means they have no provisions and stores for their own use in winter, which also entails you actually are dependent on food imports by land or sea in winter, which is a recipe for disaster.

Quite right. A recipe for disaster.  And to call the food crisis in aCoK a joke means to dismiss all the mobs that formed because of the lack of food. It's gotten worse, and it's not because they are being cut off from trade. They are getting imports from Highgarden on the regular, and there is still a crisis. 

Winter is already here, so the countdown begins on how long will they survive from starvation. I'd guess 2 years once trade routes are closed from the snow.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

No, that is the wrong approach. Wars beget strange bedfellows. As it happens, Dany's allies could very well be both houses and people that fought against Aerys II Targaryen and people that are going to fight Prince Aegon in the wars to come.

It is absolutely the right approach, because I wouldn't start from a list of ALL Westerosi houses, but rather who have supported Dany in the past. To say you might gain some from weird places is very true, but to dismiss who already have a propensity for supporter your house is nonsensical.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But as things stand it is not necessarily likely that she needs any allies in Westeros whatsoever. If she has sufficient strength all she needs to do is to take the Iron Throne and demand that people do her homage or take the field against her. And then she and her dragons and Dothraki and other allies will her destroy piece by piece. She doesn't have to involve herself in a ridiculous campaign to conquer even the last village. It should be enough to make it clear that people not bending the knee won't get any help in winter and may even face dragonfire in winter, not to mention her entire strength in the next spring.

Yes, she will likely have sufficient strength. As I have stated before, it's not about strength, though, it's about resources. She only needs to take one city, King's Landing, but to hold it, she needs resources.

And no one is taking the field when winter comes.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Merryweathers are most likely going to declare for Aegon. It is pretty obvious that Taena and Orton are agents of the Golden Company/Varys in the city.

That's gonna suck for Dany. There are a limited number of houses untouched by war who can help with providing food, and Merryweather is a big one, if not the biggest.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Say, Aegon has large portions of Westeros on his side around the time Dany arrives. They don't reach a peaceful settlement. Once he begins the war we are not unlikely to see him being surprised by how many of the people he thought were his men decide to declare for her - just as half the Reach or more declared for Rhaenyra during the First Dance.

Will Daenerys accept all these houses so readily? Those who have been possibly touched by greyscale? 

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, the Others are a danger for the dragons. But they will work as powerful symbols to show the people of Westeros that Daenerys is the true queen. She is the one who should rule. In the fight against the Others the fighters Dany is bringing to Westeros will be most likely more crucial than her dragons.

The fighters that she is bringing with her are also part of the problem. A foreign army. Also, Dragons may serve to being a symbol for a true queen, but they are also a symbol of war and destruction.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

18 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

@dregs4NED As I said before, alliances are not static, nor is the state of Westeros. We've seen betrayals and broken alliances in every war so far, and this war shouldn't be any different. I think it's unrealistic for Dany to have no allies in Westeros at all.

Exactly, as it stands right now even Cersei and the Lannisters of Casterly Rock are potential allies of Daenerys. Aegon is going to be the one who casts down Tommen and/or Myrcella, so a Targaryen enemy of Aegon's could be Cersei's friend. Not all that likely due to the fact that Tyrion is with Dany but quite a few of other Westermen could decide to join Dany if that enables them to avenge themselves on Aegon.

Daenerys is absent from the dynamic. She still wants all Lannisters dead, all Baratheons dead, all Starks dead, and an alliance is not going to make her overcome her house's words, by Fire & Blood.

When the Martells side with (f)Aegon, Daenerys might still take them into her fold. But Cersei? Lannisters? 

Tyrion is not with Dany yet. In the show, yes, but not books. All he needs to do is say the magic words, "I want your leave to rape and kill my sister".

[Lord Varys]

15 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

I like this thought, a lot.

And Dany can just take a tour upon her dragon to inspect her victories and whatnot. perhaps in POV.

Sure, people don't seem to grasp what it means when you are a dragonrider. You are more mobile than a raven then.

15 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

Please do not dismiss my original post. Obviously, it is all in theory, but it is sourced and grounded within possibility. I have made a prediction, despite the difficulty. Of course, all pieces are still in play and can move around the board. But that doesn't mean I can't spot a potential check-mate several moves ahead. 

It is pretty difficult. I don't feel comfortable predicting Dany's campaign in Westeros aside from rather general details like - if Dorne declares for Aegon, and if Arianne marries Aegon, and if Arianne believes that Dany is responsible for Quentyn's death, the Martells will never support her upon her arrival. But we don't know whether any of those presupposition will turn out to be true.

15 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

But if you want to be rebuked, let's go ahead:

• The sparrow movement will go on indefinitely. To suggest that Daenerys can qualm all the woes of all the commonfolk that drove them to want to bear arms, to feed them all through winter while correcting all the injustices brought upon them during the War of the Five Kings, is more than a stretch in terms of possibility. Because that's what the sparrow movement is, about injustices and empty bellies. Without promised security in both these regards, the sparrows will remain armed. And Dany can't satisfy either of these, as her own army is want their dues, and feeding the population is inevitably doomed.

It is not just whether the sparrows continue to exist, it depends also in what shape they will be upon her arrival, and what they think about those dragons that are coming. The sparrows are looking for a savior. It may be Aegon for them, but we don't know how long they will stick to him nor how long they will be happy with him-

15 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

• King Aegon VI might become popular, yes. But I know one thing, he will have a large stain in his popularity from his own Hand of the King who is covertly bringing greyscale into Westeros. That's a bit more than a simple fly-in-the-soup.

Oh, I think there will be a greyscale or even grey plague pandemic, sure. But I could certainly see the guys succeeding in keeping it a secret that Jon Connington was responsible for that. It would still weaken Aegon's position, strengthening Daenerys upon her arrival. She won't be Stone Queen.

15 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

• Winter is already here. A white raven arrived in King's Landing in the epilogue for aDwD. The weather is bad and is getting worse. We can only argue as to whether it will be catastrophic for Daenerys immediately upon landing, when she takes the Iron Throne, or maybe on her very last page.

The harder winter hits Westeros in the months prior to Dany's arrival the weaker will her potential opponents become. Winter is going to play into her hands as much as the hands of the Others. Unless whoever is going to become Dany's main opponent - Aegon, Euron, Cersei, Stannis, whoever - is going to have a strong army very close to her landing zone they simply won't be able to marshal an army against her. And then there won't be any meaningful opposition.

15 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

• Which "various pretenders" are you talking about? And to what extent will it matter how much they have bled or not?

Aegon, Euron, Cersei, Stannis, various outlaws and rebel groups, etc. They are continue to deplete Westeros of the strength it would need to resist Dany's conquest.

15 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

She has to go to Westeros. She is more than obligated to do so. It's integral to her whole storyline and character. Her main mission in life is revenge, reclamation, and returning to "home", which she believes is in Westeros.

That seems to be what you want to think it is about, but the character is actually not about any of that. Dany has only a very abstract reason for *revenge* - her basis for this are only the stories Viserys told her as a child. She has sort of a moral responsibility to the family name and honor to avenge her father and brother, and take her father's throne but that is nothing she could not ignore. She ignores it all throughout ASoS and ADwD. She thinks Westeros should be her home, but it isn't her home. The only home she ever had was in Braavos.

She certainly will go to Westeros. That is her story. But we cannot say at this point that she will do that for the reasons you give. In fact, it is very likely that she will understand what her father Aerys and her brother Rhaegar were - both madmen, in their own ways - and that she is not really going to Westeros to right avenge wrongs done to her family (especially in light of the fact that all the Usurper's Dogs aside from Jaime are long dead) but rather to her people, the people of the Realm her ancestor Aegon forged.

Defending that Realm against the Others is her destiny. But the point George is making in ADwD is that you can reject or ignore your destiny. Nobody is forcing you to go along with it. You have to make choices.

15 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

Everything else is derived from her original mission, including setting slaves free and assimilating the Dothraki.

The freeing of the slaves has nothing to do with her being the blood of the dragon. It is a completely different issue, something she doesn't even plan consciously.

15 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

She can rebuild Valyria, that's fine and cool, but only after her original mission has been dispelled. 

No, she has the potential of doing that before she goes to Westeros. That is the point. Winter has come now, making a military campaign in Westeros very difficult. Why should a 15-16-year-old girl who has her entire life ahead of her insisting to wage a potentially devastating war in the middle of winter? Why should she not wait for spring, and consolidate her power during winter in Essos - where snow should much less of a problem than in Westeros, especially down in the south? 

George will have to give us a good explanation for this. And this explanation is likely going to involve the Others in some fashion. 

15 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

Get off the hook? I'm not sure what you mean, but she does have royal prerogative over anything she wants to do. No one has her over a barrel.

And what part is convoluted? That Daenerys is coming to Westeros with erroneous preconceptions about what she wants, and her realizing this will cause her to backtrack from the Iron Throne?

Braavosi private citizen? That would be like hanging her wings above the fireplace, am I right? I don't think she can do that. Asshai is way more likely.

Off the hook of the responsibility to wear a crown? She wanted some time of peace and quiet in Meereen, too. She does not want to be responsible for the entire world. Why on earth should she thus go to Asshai of all places? It is at the end of the world, a very ominous place of dark magic. And Dany doesn't exactly like sorcerers.

15 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

Selmy hasn't mentioned anything yet, despite knowing better. Let's hope he's still alive when Dany gets back.

Honestly, it's questionable if Daenerys even accepts Tyrion into his service. All she has to hear from him is "I want to rape and kill my sister".

Marwyn just wants a dragon. Not success of Dany's conquest.

They are going to starve in Westeros. At least, so the theory goes.

Well, even if all the people told her nothing - she is not as stupid as assuming that getting thousands of people across the sea to conquer another continent is going to work in winter when she has no food. Especially if that continent has been ripped apart by civil wars for a couple of years by the time she finally gets there.

But we can most certainly assume that pretty much any of the people talking to her about this - not just Selmy, Tyrion, and Marwyn but also her other captains and generals - will tell her about this.

And the people of Westeros - beginning in the North and the Riverlands - will starve much sooner, weakening the people there, and crippling the abilities of those regions to oppose her.

15 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

Quite right. A recipe for disaster.  And to call the food crisis in aCoK a joke means to dismiss all the mobs that formed because of the lack of food. It's gotten worse, and it's not because they are being cut off from trade. They are getting imports from Highgarden on the regular, and there is still a crisis. 

Winter is already here, so the countdown begins on how long will they survive from starvation. I'd guess 2 years once trade routes are closed from the snow.

Not every trade is going to shut down in winter - naval trade could still work. Warfare is what's not going to work. Armies could only travel very slowly, etc. 

But I actually meant that George's worldbuilding is a joke here. If KL has no large quantities of food stored for winter they could simply not survive those winters, especially not since they don't even know how long those winters are going to last. I mean, they have a limited amount of stored food but no idea how many years the winter will last. But whether you live or die depends on whether you still have food in, say, the fourth years of a five-year-winter or not. That means you cannot afford to waste a single piece of food under any circumstances.

But nobody in this world behaves in this fashion. It is simply not really thought through.

15 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

It is absolutely the right approach, because I wouldn't start from a list of ALL Westerosi houses, but rather who have supported Dany in the past. To say you might gain some from weird places is very true, but to dismiss who already have a propensity for supporter your house is nonsensical.

Dany wasn't supported by any Westerosi house in the past. Other Targaryens were. And quite a few had no dragons. Dany has brought the dragons back, and once they are in Westeros and seen by the people that is going to have an effect on them-

15 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

Yes, she will likely have sufficient strength. As I have stated before, it's not about strength, though, it's about resources. She only needs to take one city, King's Landing, but to hold it, she needs resources.

She will have those resources, one way or another.

15 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

And no one is taking the field when winter comes.

Some people will, although in smaller numbers/armies, and most likely only wage campaigns closer to home. And to deal with the Others they will also have to fight in winter.

15 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

That's gonna suck for Dany. There are a limited number of houses untouched by war who can help with providing food, and Merryweather is a big one, if not the biggest.

They aren't that big of a house. The Hightowers, Redwynes, and Rowans are the truly powerful houses in the Reach.

15 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

Will Daenerys accept all these houses so readily? Those who have been possibly touched by greyscale?

If there is a pandemic we'll see it spreading among the Kingslanders and perhaps the Stormlanders, not so much the noble houses but rather the common people living closely together.

15 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

The fighters that she is bringing with her are also part of the problem. A foreign army. Also, Dragons may serve to being a symbol for a true queen, but they are also a symbol of war and destruction.

People might not be fond of foreign invaders, but the question is whether they will still have the (physical) strength to oppose them.

15 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

Daenerys is absent from the dynamic. She still wants all Lannisters dead, all Baratheons dead, all Starks dead, and an alliance is not going to make her overcome her house's words, by Fire & Blood.

That is not true. Dany (sort of) intended to put down the Usurper's Dogs. But those are largely dead by now. She is not going to blame Cersei for being married to Robert by her father, she is not going to blame the Stark, Tully, or Arryn children for the actions of their fathers.

And she might not even get around to end 'the usurper's line', as Jon Connington puts it, because Aegon is very likely to see to this.

15 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

When the Martells side with (f)Aegon, Daenerys might still take them into her fold. But Cersei? Lannisters?

Cersei is actually no Targaryen enemy. She had no hands in the downfall of Dany's father and brother, and that she fought for her children is understandable. She did not take up arms against Daenerys up to this point. I expect that she might if she lives long enough - and regains a position of power - but we don't know that yet.

If we imagine that Aegon and his people end up being responsible for the deaths of Tommen and Myrcella and Cersei herself ends up in a precarious position around the time Dany arrives then they might simply not end up being enemies. 

15 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

Tyrion is not with Dany yet. In the show, yes, but not books. All he needs to do is say the magic words, "I want your leave to rape and kill my sister".

I doubt Dany would give Tyrion permission for that. Why should she? As of yet Cersei hasn't wronged her and if Cersei weren't her enemy by the time she comes to Westeros she would have no reason to permit Tyrion to enact some sick revenge fantasies.

And even Tyrion might get over any of those by the time he comes back.

[Hodor the Articulate]

36 minutes ago, dregs4NED said:

Daenerys is absent from the dynamic. She still wants all Lannisters dead, all Baratheons dead, all Starks dead, and an alliance is not going to make her overcome her house's words, by Fire & Blood.

When the Martells side with (f)Aegon, Daenerys might still take them into her fold. But Cersei? Lannisters?

That's a mischaracterisation. Dany sought vengeance on the "Usuper's dogs", not their families. She'll likely still be wary of any House that supported the usurper, of course, but there's no indication that Dany wants to pull a Tywin on them, or that she is type of person who can't work with enemies in order to achieve her goals. If anything, her time in Meereen shows the opposite.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The smallfolk are indeed the ones who are suffering the most, but there is little chance we see any emancipation there. But what certainly could happen is that the world Daenerys is rebuilding after the war will no longer have any place for the petty ambitions of the various noble families.

Oh, I agree there. Westeros isn't suddenly going to become a republic. I think, in the end, Westeros will move towards absolutism (much to the chargrin of certain members of this forum), and conditions for smallfolk will improve somewhat. I can't imagine things will go back to the days of petty Kings or even to how it was at the start of the books. What would have been the point of depicting the pre-conquest era as a time of constant wars, or of including Egg's (failed) reforms into the story?

[Lord Varys]

5 minutes ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Oh, I agree there. Westeros isn't suddenly going to become a republic. I think, in the end, Westeros will move towards absolutism (much to the chargrin of certain members of this forum), and conditions for smallfolk will improve somewhat. I can't imagine things will go back to the days of petty Kings or even to how it was at the start of the books. What would have been the point of depicting the pre-conquest era as a time of constant wars, or of including Egg's (failed) reforms into the story?

The best thing we can expect in that department is, I think, the person on the Iron Throne rediscovering the reforms of Aegon V and following in his footsteps now that the dragons are finally there (if they survive) to help implement those plans.

But we should also see the rise of an absolutist rule with Dany and Jon ending up being worshiped as half-divine, etc. due to the situation the people find themselves, and the religious contexts they will find themselves in. Jon will sort of return from the dead, and Dany will bring dragons to fight the Others. Both will set them apart from 'mortal men' in a very real sense. Beric and Catelyn are also not treated as 'normal people' by the people around them.

And that might very quickly transform into ultimate power over all of their followers. From there it shouldn't be that difficult to completely change the political landscape of Westeros during the fight against the Others and especially thereafter.

[BlueNightzx]

there were only 2 people who could set things right in the seven kingdoms, Tywin(the "de facto" king for the last decades) and kevan, and they're both dead, from now on will be a straight line down, neither jon or dany will improve things, the best hope is that in the end, the ww treat is dealt with, and people have a little hope for the future "a dream of spring"/bittersweet ending,  but we will not see a golden age in westeros, not even the beginning of one.

 

[BlueNightzx]

in fact a stark monarch, or targaryen would be one of the worst things for westeros right now

Starks as being a first men family, are very "feudalistic" they engage in little outside commerce and trade, have an insignificant navy, the only good port being the manderlys, who are initially a southern house. very culturally isolationist, a very crude and outdated sense of law and legal matters,  very small influence outside the north, none abroad, intellectually and technologically outdated.

A targaryen would be even worse, very antagonistic to the Faith and cultural costumes of westeros, rely totally on military power to rule, very isolated bloodine, with few marriages outside their own house, have very few close allies through marriage, (not like the starks/karstarks, Lannister of casterly rock/lannisport/freys ), a bad reputation after the mad king.

the best bet was a Southern King, a lannister, a tyrell, even a Hightower, financially strong houses, with deep commercial and trade connections, strong close allies through marriage, high political and social influence, strong military forces, outside influence in essos, culturally compatible, a deep understanding of westeros social and political structure.

[dregs4NED]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is pretty difficult. I don't feel comfortable predicting Dany's campaign in Westeros aside from rather general details like - if Dorne declares for Aegon, and if Arianne marries Aegon, and if Arianne believes that Dany is responsible for Quentyn's death, the Martells will never support her upon her arrival. But we don't know whether any of those presupposition will turn out to be true.

My predictions aren't a farcry from possibility. Such as Dany's army being upset and seeking an outlet for their spoils of war. Food will be a problem, and if Daenerys somehow mitigates it, her army will still be upset about the lack of treasure in the capital. And these will have further consequences, such as a chafing relationship with the Faith. I'm not pulling this out of nothing, and frankly, saying that my position is "completely baseless" is insulting and irksome.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is not just whether the sparrows continue to exist, it depends also in what shape they will be upon her arrival, and what they think about those dragons that are coming. The sparrows are looking for a savior. It may be Aegon for them, but we don't know how long they will stick to him nor how long they will be happy with him-

To me, the sparrows are inseparable from the commonfolk; they share the same desires and needs. The end of injustices and having bread for their tables. And a change of rulers are likely not going to help in these regards.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, I think there will be a greyscale or even grey plague pandemic, sure. But I could certainly see the guys succeeding in keeping it a secret that Jon Connington was responsible for that. It would still weaken Aegon's position, strengthening Daenerys upon her arrival. She won't be Stone Queen.

Oh, I don't think it is a matter of attaching responsibility or keeping it a secret. Once the plague is loose, it's not gonna be a matter of who caught it from whom, but a matter of staying away from the infected. No one's gonna care if Aegon declares "but this wasn't our fault!"

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The harder winter hits Westeros in the months prior to Dany's arrival the weaker will her potential opponents become. Winter is going to play into her hands as much as the hands of the Others. Unless whoever is going to become Dany's main opponent - Aegon, Euron, Cersei, Stannis, whoever - is going to have a strong army very close to her landing zone they simply won't be able to marshal an army against her. And then there won't be any meaningful opposition.

To me, it was never a matter on how strong the opposition is. Daenerys is destined to win the throne, including subduing all her foes, and it's only a matter of at what cost. Winter will indeed weaken any opponents, and thus strengthen Dany's momentum, but it will inevitably consume her as well.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Aegon, Euron, Cersei, Stannis, various outlaws and rebel groups, etc. They are continue to deplete Westeros of the strength it would need to resist Dany's conquest.

Resistance is futile.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That seems to be what you want to think it is about, but the character is actually not about any of that. Dany has only a very abstract reason for *revenge* - her basis for this are only the stories Viserys told her as a child. She has sort of a moral responsibility to the family name and honor to avenge her father and brother, and take her father's throne but that is nothing she could not ignore. She ignores it all throughout ASoS and ADwD. She thinks Westeros should be her home, but it isn't her home. The only home she ever had was in Braavos.

She certainly will go to Westeros. That is her story. But we cannot say at this point that she will do that for the reasons you give. In fact, it is very likely that she will understand what her father Aerys and her brother Rhaegar were - both madmen, in their own ways - and that she is not really going to Westeros to right avenge wrongs done to her family (especially in light of the fact that all the Usurper's Dogs aside from Jaime are long dead) but rather to her people, the people of the Realm her ancestor Aegon forged.

Defending that Realm against the Others is her destiny. But the point George is making in ADwD is that you can reject or ignore your destiny. Nobody is forcing you to go along with it. You have to make choices.

Yes, I said myself that Dany isn't entirely convinced in her motive for revenge. But it's still there. She hasn't ignored the Iron Throne, but rather has it on the backburner. 

It's not the reasons that I give, it's the reasons that she has given to the reader. She believes that Aerys was usurped instead of put down for his madness, revenge still persists despite knowing that her the main players being dead, she believes the heading to Westeros will take her to "kinder lands" and that she is going home.

Where does it say that she's not going heading to Westeros for vengeance done to her family, but rather to save her people? 

The point of my post isn't just about these reasons on why Dany's going to Westeros, it's about how it's her being set up to be disillusioned from them. 

Defending the realm against the Others is not her destiny. That would be an ex Machina as it's completely outside the scope of her arc. Her destiny, in this current scope, lies within the Iron Throne.

And where is this point made by George? I'm curious.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The freeing of the slaves has nothing to do with her being the blood of the dragon. It is a completely different issue, something she doesn't even plan consciously.

As I said in the OP, her primordial motive is seeking security, freedom from danger. Now that she has power, she wishes to save those who can't free themselves. By protecting others, she is attempting to "save" herself. It's a classic move. It's not about being blood of the dragon, it's about her humanity. Yes, it's not even done consciously.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

No, she has the potential of doing that before she goes to Westeros. That is the point. Winter has come now, making a military campaign in Westeros very difficult. Why should a 15-16-year-old girl who has her entire life ahead of her insisting to wage a potentially devastating war in the middle of winter? Why should she not wait for spring, and consolidate her power during winter in Essos - where snow should much less of a problem than in Westeros, especially down in the south? 

George will have to give us a good explanation for this. And this explanation is likely going to involve the Others in some fashion. 

So you're saying that she's going to wait some more in going to Westeros, indulging in more side-missions, and won't actually go to Westeros until she gets another reason stacked on her?  A reason, such as the Others, which will supersede her original motives? That kinda undercuts/overpowers them, wouldn't you agree?  

That's why I thought heading to Asshai might be beneficial, to wait out winter. But waiting out winter could take a decade, and the story will be long over. So, Westeros comes first.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Off the hook of the responsibility to wear a crown? She wanted some time of peace and quiet in Meereen, too. She does not want to be responsible for the entire world. Why on earth should she thus go to Asshai of all places? It is at the end of the world, a very ominous place of dark magic. And Dany doesn't exactly like sorcerers.

She's the one who put herself on the hook, so she's the only one to take herself off of it.

She will go to Asshai for "truth", whatever that means. It's cryptic, and open-ended, I'll admit. We still have two more books to learn why, but I can see that there are runway lights going for Daenerys way out east.

Dany likes Quaithe. She has placed stock in her words and has hopes to see her again.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, even if all the people told her nothing - she is not as stupid as assuming that getting thousands of people across the sea to conquer another continent is going to work in winter when she has no food. Especially if that continent has been ripped apart by civil wars for a couple of years by the time she finally gets there.

But we can most certainly assume that pretty much any of the people talking to her about this - not just Selmy, Tyrion, and Marwyn but also her other captains and generals - will tell her about this.

It's not about being stupid, it's about being informed. She knows nothing of winter. We can't certainly assume that anyone else will tell her about this. All of them are Essosi, who don't have detailed knowledge of the wars in the west, and haven't said anything of winter yet. Not even a "What, you want to take Westeros? In winter? Girl, you crazy." It's possible that they don't know winter, either.

The later that Daenerys realizes about the need to get food, the harder it will be to address it.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Not every trade is going to shut down in winter - naval trade could still work. Warfare is what's not going to work. Armies could only travel very slowly, etc. 

But I actually meant that George's worldbuilding is a joke here. If KL has no large quantities of food stored for winter they could simply not survive those winters, especially not since they don't even know how long those winters are going to last. I mean, they have a limited amount of stored food but no idea how many years the winter will last. But whether you live or die depends on whether you still have food in, say, the fourth years of a five-year-winter or not. That means you cannot afford to waste a single piece of food under any circumstances.

But nobody in this world behaves in this fashion. It is simply not really thought through.

Naval trade only works for coastal cities. The largest amount of food is currently in the Reach, which is not coastal.

Yes, KL is doomed in it's current state. It was myopic of the Lannisters to burn fields before winter. But these are the consequences.

I think it was thought through, by GRRM. It was built up to this.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Dany wasn't supported by any Westerosi house in the past. Other Targaryens were. And quite a few had no dragons. Dany has brought the dragons back, and once they are in Westeros and seen by the people that is going to have an effect on them-

Sorry, I should've typed "supported Dany's father." 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

She will have those resources, one way or another.

..or else? A failed mission? No way you can be certain. 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Some people will, although in smaller numbers/armies, and most likely only wage campaigns closer to home. And to deal with the Others they will also have to fight in winter.

Only fools will take the field. And they only need to defend against the Others with a garrison, not meet them on the field.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

They aren't that big of a house. The Hightowers, Redwynes, and Rowans are the truly powerful houses in the Reach.

The only measure of power that matters is by food. House Merryweather is renowned for it.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If there is a pandemic we'll see it spreading among the Kingslanders and perhaps the Stormlanders, not so much the noble houses but rather the common people living closely together.

Jon Connington isn't among the common people. He's in the camps with other nobleman, shaking hands and making deals as Hand.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is not true. Dany (sort of) intended to put down the Usurper's Dogs. But those are largely dead by now. She is not going to blame Cersei for being married to Robert by her father, she is not going to blame the Stark, Tully, or Arryn children for the actions of their fathers.

And she might not even get around to end 'the usurper's line', as Jon Connington puts it, because Aegon is very likely to see to this.

Largely dead, yes. Yet somehow, revenge still persists as one of her driving motives. When she fails to get it  -- Robert, Eddard and Tywin are all dead -- will she simply let go of this motive like a drop of the hat? It is more likely she will seek vengeance through familial ties or through other ties.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Cersei is actually no Targaryen enemy. She had no hands in the downfall of Dany's father and brother, and that she fought for her children is understandable. She did not take up arms against Daenerys up to this point. I expect that she might if she lives long enough - and regains a position of power - but we don't know that yet.

If we imagine that Aegon and his people end up being responsible for the deaths of Tommen and Myrcella and Cersei herself ends up in a precarious position around the time Dany arrives then they might simply not end up being enemies. 

Cersei does bed Dany's father's killer. And loves Jaime, no one else. She is the mother of the current king, and her world revolves around it. If anything involves dethroning Tommen, she's going to be against it. And Daenerys means to do just that.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I doubt Dany would give Tyrion permission for that. Why should she? As of yet Cersei hasn't wronged her and if Cersei weren't her enemy by the time she comes to Westeros she would have no reason to permit Tyrion to enact some sick revenge fantasies.

And even Tyrion might get over any of those by the time he comes back.

Exactly. She won't give permission to do it. She's going to be absolutely disgusted by Tyrion and will shun him, if not outright kill him. The show has painted a rather nice relationship between Tyrion + Daenerys, but the books may have it entirely different.

 

3 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

That's a mischaracterisation. Dany sought vengeance on the "Usuper's dogs", not their families. She'll likely still be wary of any House that supported the usurper, of course, but there's no indication that Dany wants to pull a Tywin on them, or that she is type of person who can't work with enemies in order to achieve her goals. If anything, her time in Meereen shows the opposite.

She hasn't mentioned otherwise, though. Starks are currently considered extinct, and Stannis is at The Wall. There are a lot of Lannisters though. And without anywhere to drive her motive for vengeance, she may seek familial ties to squeeze out some revenge. It's less likely that she will arrive to Westeros without anyone to exact vengeance on and simply drop it.