Why Doran's plan is so bad?

[cpg2016]

8 minutes ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

So he's just a liar? Because he said with all words to Arianne he has been plotting for freaking 17 years. I'd accept him just being a good liar and fucking with everyone just to keep Dorne low at the radar.

How does that make him a liar?  He has been plotting for 17 years... just not very well

[Denam_Pavel]

17 minutes ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

I don't remeber Tryion asking Oberyn to fight for him. Any quotes?

Tyrion is the one that promised justice to Dorne which summoned Oberyn to King's Landing. After that Tyrion talked Oberyn into seeing him as a kindred spirit.

[Ser Loras The Gay]

58 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

How does that make him a liar?  He has been plotting for 17 years... just not very well

Not a liar but... I can't find a better word... he's saying those things like he has some sort of master plan behind him. But all the things he did were gambles, and bad ones at that matter. And for a plot of 17 years to be this bad you need to be stupid as well, not only bad at plotting.

 

49 minutes ago, Denam_Pavel said:

Tyrion is the one that promised justice to Dorne which summoned Oberyn to King's Landing. After that Tyrion talked Oberyn into seeing him as a kindred spirit.

Yeah, but Oberyn was at KL to fill a council seat not just to make justice. And justice can be achieved in many ways not just by entering a trial by combat against a beast like Gregor. And as we know from the way Oberyn talked about Tywin he thought Tywin was as guilty as the moutain and Lorch. So, entering heads on in a fight without having a second plan to kill Tywin is very stupid, and Oberyn is everything but stupid, we need to remeber he studied for years at the citadel and earned 6 links from maesters, traveled all the world researching for poisons and history.

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

He should have sent Quentyn and those nobles.  Plus, it's a good way for him to earn brownie points with his vassals; sending them on important diplomatic missions is a sign of prestige.

Quentyn has no need to get all that connected to the Dornish nobles. He isn't Doran's heir, as you should know.

And, actually, he did send one rather important noble with him, Cletus Yronwood, the son of Lord Anders Yronwood, the second most powerful man in Dorne. It isn't Doran's fault that the man was killed.

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

And she might have accepted them for a future match.  She's coming back to Westeros at some point, she thinks.

Well, that's worth nothing. She could change her mind. She could take another husband (as she does), or she could die (as she nearly does).

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

And your last point is correct, which is why it's such a shitty plan.  Doran doesn't want open war yet, but he can't achieve his goals without risking that.  He can't send Quentyn with the support he needs to do his job because to do so exposes his plot.  But Quentyn fails in large part because he doesn't have that support.  If Doran had sent a few ships and a hundred men, Quentyn would have arrived before the marriage to Hizdahr, vastly improving his chances.

The whole thing is a risky enterprise because their enemies are not exactly powerless. If the Iron Throne hears of this too early they can prepare for them and deal with this grand Targaryen restoration plan like the Targaryen kings dealt with the Blackfyre pretenders - quickly and decisively.

Just look at Aegon's plan right now. His entire success hinges on whether he is going to be able to defeat the Tyrell army. If he pulls off that miracle then he is much closer to victory. If he loses he is finished. Dragons or not, Daenerys would also have to win a battle to encourage many lords who are positively inclined to her cause to join her. If her allies in Westeros show their hand to seen - as you want Doran to do - everything might be lost.

It would be similar to the travesty that was the Secon Blackfyre Rebellion. The guys at Whitewalls being Dorne and Bittersteel and the other exiles being Daenerys. Daemon II got defeated in 211 AC, and Bittersteel and Haegon got their ass kicked in 219 AC. If they had worked together they may have had a much better chance to win this thing.

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Right, it's the opposite of a genius plan.  If you want to call Doran a gambler, that's fine.  But that means there is no plan, there is a gamble, which is a vastly different proposition.  What he had with Arianne & Viserys?  That's a plan.  It's well thought out, it has a good chance of working as designed, everyone is given the resources and ability to do their job (I mean he botched it by not telling Arianne, but the bones of the plan are solid).  As I said, with Quent's mission, Doran loses from the word go.  He can't satisfy both his desires at once, which means he fails.  He's throwing the dice and hoping for snake eyes, which is a bet, not a plot.

Well, the Quentyn plan is a gamble. Everybody who claims this is some genius plan is pretty much wrong. Doran had intends to restore a Targaryen to the throne but he didn't have a genius plan up his sleeve. He is pretty effective in his secrecy but people telling he is a super genius are clearly wrong.

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

And by the way, Doran doesn't know what's happened in Meereen and he's already jumping ship and turning to fAegon.  So he's already planning on betraying Daenerys.  Dany didn't reject Dorne, she rejected Quentyn, which is different entirely.  If what Doran truly cared about was a Targaryen restoration and justice for Elia, then backing Dany would be enough.  What he wants is a return to the privileged position he had with Rhaegar's marriage.  Doran is just as motivated by power politics as anyone, he's just better at disguising it to himself under more noble motives.

Well, it is my theory that he also wants the Martells back in the sunlight. One can deduce that from the marriage contract and the Quentyn plan.

But Doran is not jumping ship yet. That is Arianne's call now. He has sent her to Aegon to check out the boy. But they will jump ship either when the news about the Hizdahr marriage or Dany's alleged death arrives (the latter is the version the Ghiscari will spread). And then they can choose between Aegon and continue to do nothing. It won't be a hard decision.

And once the news about Quentyn's death arrives in Dorne (perhaps brought to Doran and Arianne by Gerris Drinkwater who has grown to loath Daenerys) every chance of an alliance between Daenerys and Dorne will be over. They might even push Aegon not to consider an alliance with Dany. Arianne already thinks Dany had an active hand in the death of Viserys.

 

[BalerionTheCat]

A westerosi lady marries the best party. Doran sent his eldest son. His best offer. He didn't know Daenerys has a preference for sex beasts like Daario or Drogo. And Doran is obsessed with secrecy. So what better than an insignificant merchant company? Anyway a bigger company would have no better chance to reach Meereen.

[marsyao]

On 7/12/2017 at 10:20 AM, Ser Loras The Gay said:

Hey everyone, so, I was watching the season 5 and 6 of the GoT series for obvious reasons

 

Then you only have yourself to blame

[cpg2016]

3 hours ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

Not a liar but... I can't find a better word... he's saying those things like he has some sort of master plan behind him. But all the things he did were gambles, and bad ones at that matter. And for a plot of 17 years to be this bad you need to be stupid as well, not only bad at plotting.

I mean, he had a plan.  Which was the Viserys/Arianne match, which, to give him credit, was far better thought out.  But he put all his eggs in that basket, and did it poorly, and now he can't improvise well.  Which is why I think he's a bad manipulator - he's so scared of being found out, he hasn't trusted anyone with his plans.  I mean... his refusal to include Arianne, or even train her to be a political player, has led to a lot of his problems.

[cpg2016]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Quentyn has no need to get all that connected to the Dornish nobles. He isn't Doran's heir, as you should know.

And, actually, he did send one rather important noble with him, Cletus Yronwood, the son of Lord Anders Yronwood, the second most powerful man in Dorne. It isn't Doran's fault that the man was killed.

Quentyn isn't the one who gets connected, Doran is.  Dispensing those kinds of honors and offices is a huge part of feudal politics.  Name Lord Anders Yronwood the head of the delegation to Dany and you gain a major supporter; your top dog vassal is in charge of negotiating on your behalf (a huge honor) and because of that, is far more likely to support you in backing her (since he brokered the deal), as opposed to staying loyal to the Baratheon/Lannister/Tyrell regime and hoping to be made Lord Paramount of Dorne in case they win.

And it is Doran's fault.  He sent six kids, basically, into an active war zone.  And the noble he sent was in no way an official delegation or a diplomat or anything like that.  It's absurd on it's face.  He's so afraid of being found out he doesn't empower his envoys in any measurable way.  If he sent 100 spears and half a dozen high ranking nobles with Quentyn (actually Lords, not Quent's buddies who happen to be nobles) and portrays his offer as him pledging her support, he might actually get the marriage he wants.  Quentyn would arrive in time for Dany to be unwed, and the whole thing looks more legit.  Instead, Quentyn & Co show up weeks too late and present a deal which is in no way relevant to Dany, and expect her to accept, because it gains her Dorne.  They led withe cart instead of the horse, and the way in which Quentyn arrives isn't exactly impressive either.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The whole thing is a risky enterprise because their enemies are not exactly powerless. If the Iron Throne hears of this too early they can prepare for them and deal with this grand Targaryen restoration plan like the Targaryen kings dealt with the Blackfyre pretenders - quickly and decisively.

Yes, I agree.  In which case, he shouldn't be playing the game of thrones. 

Look, Doran is trying to unseat a reigning monarch and restore a previous dynasty.  It's a massive risk, one that almost demands war, even if it goes off perfectly.  But Doran is so unwilling to risk that war (which must inevitably come) that he ends up playing everything poorly.  The plan requires a bold move at some point, just as Robert's Rebellion involved tossing the dice and raising arms and hoping they could win, or Walder Frey executing the Red Wedding.  Every plot has risks.  But Doran is unwilling to accept them.  He missed his moment, is what I'm saying.  He's trying to delay his war as long as possible, and it's costing him his son, his chance to get in good with Dany, and soon, I suspect, his daughter.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Just look at Aegon's plan right now. His entire success hinges on whether he is going to be able to defeat the Tyrell army. If he pulls off that miracle then he is much closer to victory.

Right, and what's the difference?  fAegon and Connington actually take that risk!  They know they have to move boldly at some point, and they do, and it nets them Storm's End and real momentum in their war.  Doran's time to go for broke was in courting Daenerys via Quent (or, more intelligently, Oberyn). And he was too timid.  And now his plans are past ripe, just like the BLOOD ORANGES in the Water Gardens.  I mean, the symbolism is basically being slapped in your face.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Daemon II got defeated in 211 AC, and Bittersteel and Haegon got their ass kicked in 219 AC. If they had worked together they may have had a much better chance to win this thing.

Debatable.  The Second Blackfyre Rebellion had no shot and didn't squander the strength of the Golden Company, the primary vehicle for a Blackfyre coup.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, the Quentyn plan is a gamble. Everybody who claims this is some genius plan is pretty much wrong. Doran had intends to restore a Targaryen to the throne but he didn't have a genius plan up his sleeve. He is pretty effective in his secrecy but people telling he is a super genius are clearly wrong.

Right, because his reveal of the whole thing is super cool.  Snake in the grass, fire and blood, etc.  But... the plans themselves range from "ok, if you squint hard enough you can see this working" to "wtf is this guy thinking".

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But Doran is not jumping ship yet. That is Arianne's call now. He has sent her to Aegon to check out the boy. But they will jump ship either when the news about the Hizdahr marriage or Dany's alleged death arrives (the latter is the version the Ghiscari will spread). And then they can choose between Aegon and continue to do nothing. It won't be a hard decision.

That he's entertaining it means he's effectively jumped ship.  Especially since he knows how bitter Arianne is about having to bow to Quentyn, and how hotheaded she is.  If he had half a brain he'd realize she'd commit to a harebrained scheme to get power.  Not that this is a harebrained scheme, but anyone with eyes can see where her storyline is going.  Throw in with fAegon to preempt having to kneel to King Quentyn, get blown up in Kings Landing after her fifteen minutes in the sun by the wildfire Dany is gonna set off when she arrives.

[Lord Varys]

24 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

Quentyn isn't the one who gets connected, Doran is.  Dispensing those kinds of honors and offices is a huge part of feudal politics.  Name Lord Anders Yronwood the head of the delegation to Dany and you gain a major supporter; your top dog vassal is in charge of negotiating on your behalf (a huge honor) and because of that, is far more likely to support you in backing her (since he brokered the deal), as opposed to staying loyal to the Baratheon/Lannister/Tyrell regime and hoping to be made Lord Paramount of Dorne in case they win.

Lord Anders Yronwood cannot just disappear without a trace, going on some trip at the far end of the world. People will notice that.

And the man is already Doran's man. Doran is very much in control of Dorne. We see that in AFfC. The man is very cautious but he misses very little and keeps his own plans very much a secret.

24 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

And it is Doran's fault.  He sent six kids, basically, into an active war zone.  And the noble he sent was in no way an official delegation or a diplomat or anything like that.  It's absurd on it's face.  He's so afraid of being found out he doesn't empower his envoys in any measurable way.  If he sent 100 spears and half a dozen high ranking nobles with Quentyn (actually Lords, not Quent's buddies who happen to be nobles) and portrays his offer as him pledging her support, he might actually get the marriage he wants.  Quentyn would arrive in time for Dany to be unwed, and the whole thing looks more legit.  Instead, Quentyn & Co show up weeks too late and present a deal which is in no way relevant to Dany, and expect her to accept, because it gains her Dorne.  They led withe cart instead of the horse, and the way in which Quentyn arrives isn't exactly impressive either.

That is all true, but those are more or less appearances. They wouldn't have changed things. A hundred men wouldn't have helped Dany in her present situation and wouldn't have made Quentyn any prettier. She simply didn't care all that much about marrying a Dornish prince or to abandon the people she feels responsible for. Had she married any Martell he would have constantly pushed her to leave Meereen. And that's not she wanted to do at the time. She may not even want to do that immediately after her return.

24 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

Yes, I agree.  In which case, he shouldn't be playing the game of thrones. 

Look, Doran is trying to unseat a reigning monarch and restore a previous dynasty.  It's a massive risk, one that almost demands war, even if it goes off perfectly.  But Doran is so unwilling to risk that war (which must inevitably come) that he ends up playing everything poorly.  The plan requires a bold move at some point, just as Robert's Rebellion involved tossing the dice and raising arms and hoping they could win, or Walder Frey executing the Red Wedding.  Every plot has risks.  But Doran is unwilling to accept them.  He missed his moment, is what I'm saying.  He's trying to delay his war as long as possible, and it's costing him his son, his chance to get in good with Dany, and soon, I suspect, his daughter.

Doran's character is flashed out in detail in AFfC and especially ADwD. The man is all about protecting his people. That's what the children in the Water Gardens represent. He is the Prince of Dorne. The interests of Dorne and the Dornish people come first. And it is not in the Dornish people's interest to die in a stupid war due to a personal vendetta of their ruler. He is not as vapid or selfish as that.

Doran is perhaps the most responsible ruler in this entire series. He cares about his people not only emotionally but he truly puts their needs before his own. And that is, strangely enough, a lesson the first Daenerys taught her son by Maron Martell. The earlier Martells we meet in TWoIaF were, let's say, less interested in the well-being/interests of their people.

In that sense, Doran is indeed not exactly the most committed player of the game of thrones. He has other priorities. And that's not a bad thing.

24 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

Right, and what's the difference?  fAegon and Connington actually take that risk!  They know they have to move boldly at some point, and they do, and it nets them Storm's End and real momentum in their war.  Doran's time to go for broke was in courting Daenerys via Quent (or, more intelligently, Oberyn). And he was too timid.  And now his plans are past ripe, just like the BLOOD ORANGES in the Water Gardens.  I mean, the symbolism is basically being slapped in your face.

The symbolism refers to the whole revenge thing.

But do you think Doran should just have begun a war while he was sending Quentyn (or Oberyn) to Dany? What if she rejected him? What if she refused to come (soon)? What if she died of a sickness? What if she drowned on the way to Dorne?

Then Dorne would be in a war it could not win. This Targaryen restoration as well as the revenge things necessitates that the Dornishmen leave Dorne and fight in the Reach, Stormlands, Crownlands, perhaps even in the Westerlands and Riverlands.

That is why Tyene-Arianne's plan to crown Myrcella to actually force Tommen/the Lannisters to declare war on Dorne and meet and deal with them on Dornish soil the best of revenge/payback ideas aside from the Targaryen plan. But it would still have led to Dorne's defeat, as would all other ideas where the Dornishmen invade the Reach, etc. Even Tyrion sees that when he recognizes early on in ADwD that to crown Myrcella would mean to kill her.

24 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

Debatable.  The Second Blackfyre Rebellion had no shot and didn't squander the strength of the Golden Company, the primary vehicle for a Blackfyre coup.

It weakened the power base of allies the Blackfyres still had in Westeros, especially in the Riverlands. There won't be any Butterwells and Heddles to join Haegon Blackfyre in 219 AC, at least not from a position of strength. Lord Ambrose lost his castle and most of his enormous wealth, and Lord Frey is most likely also not exactly all that motivated to join the Black Dragon the next time. The support of these people could have made a major differences in 219 AC. And one assumes that die-hard Blackfyre loyalists like the Peakes would have profited from the fact that Lord Gormon was still around.

24 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

Right, because his reveal of the whole thing is super cool.  Snake in the grass, fire and blood, etc.  But... the plans themselves range from "ok, if you squint hard enough you can see this working" to "wtf is this guy thinking".

Well, the great reveal is that Doran is doing anything at all. And something as, well, sympathetic as trying to restore the Targaryens. And it is very impressive that he could keep that a secret as long as he did. However, the plan itself is no grand political game.

24 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

That he's entertaining it means he's effectively jumped ship.  Especially since he knows how bitter Arianne is about having to bow to Quentyn, and how hotheaded she is.  If he had half a brain he'd realize she'd commit to a harebrained scheme to get power.  Not that this is a harebrained scheme, but anyone with eyes can see where her storyline is going.  Throw in with fAegon to preempt having to kneel to King Quentyn, get blown up in Kings Landing after her fifteen minutes in the sun by the wildfire Dany is gonna set off when she arrives.

Doran doesn't know that Arianne doesn't like the idea of a 'King Quentyn'. She told him about the issues she had with him over the letter she read as a child but the revelation that she doesn't *really* like her brother all that much even now, and that she is sort of jealous that he is getting the Targaryen now, is something that's only in her head.

I'm looking forward to the meeting between Arianne and Aegon very much because I really don't know how it will go. Is she going to get the hots for him? Will she believe he is Elia's son? What will convince her to join him? Is it going to be her free choice? Are the news about Dany's marriage/alleged death going to force both their hands?

[cpg2016]

On 7/13/2017 at 7:03 PM, Lord Varys said:

Lord Anders Yronwood cannot just disappear without a trace, going on some trip at the far end of the world. People will notice that.

And the man is already Doran's man. Doran is very much in control of Dorne. We see that in AFfC. The man is very cautious but he misses very little and keeps his own plans very much a secret.

This is missing my point entirely.  I agree with you that Lord Yronwood cannot just disappear.  This is why I think Doran is a bad plotter.  His reluctance to risk violence to the children of Dorne, while commendable, means that his plotting is doomed to be totally half-assed, because he physically can't give his pawns the resources they need to have an optimal amount of success.

And to say "he's already Doran's man" is to completely not understand how feudal politics work (let alone that Doran is very much dancing on quicksand in regards to keeping Dorne quiet).  Just because Lord Yronwood is loyal doesn't mean he doesn't need to be rewarded and coddled a bit, just like any other lord.  Look at Robb with his bannermen; save the Boltons, they're all very loyal, and they scheme and fight for honors and prestige, and Robb has to work to make them all feel like they're receiving the benefits of their loyalty (e.g. access to the royal person, honors like leading a vanguard, who gets to undertake important diplomatic missions like carrying the royal will).

On 7/13/2017 at 7:03 PM, Lord Varys said:

That is all true, but those are more or less appearances. They wouldn't have changed things. A hundred men wouldn't have helped Dany in her present situation and wouldn't have made Quentyn any prettier. She simply didn't care all that much about marrying a Dornish prince or to abandon the people she feels responsible for. Had she married any Martell he would have constantly pushed her to leave Meereen. And that's not she wanted to do at the time. She may not even want to do that immediately after her return.

I disagree.  Maybe she wouldn't have stayed.  But if Doran sends a bigger group, they get to Meereen MUCH faster and therefore, maybe Dany isn't engaged.  Maybe the hard offer of one of the Seven Kingdoms backing her is enough of a plum to get her to reconsider in Meereen.  Moreover, what if Doran does the smart thing and sends Oberyn, who is a far more attractive envoy (physically speaking, I mean), and has the contacts and resources in Essos that would help the mission be a success?  Still promise the marriage pact, but don't risk your heir.

If she doesn't want to leave Meereen, it's all obviously a moot point.  But my point is that Doran doesn't know this.  For all he knows she's raving to get out of there.   And his plan, which presupposes that Dany will leave, is still terrible.  You can't take the omniscient readers knowledge of this situation and back into it.

On 7/13/2017 at 7:03 PM, Lord Varys said:

Doran's character is flashed out in detail in AFfC and especially ADwD. The man is all about protecting his people. That's what the children in the Water Gardens represent. He is the Prince of Dorne. The interests of Dorne and the Dornish people come first. And it is not in the Dornish people's interest to die in a stupid war due to a personal vendetta of their ruler. He is not as vapid or selfish as that.

Yes.  And I give him credit for it.  But....

On 7/13/2017 at 7:03 PM, Lord Varys said:

Doran is perhaps the most responsible ruler in this entire series. He cares about his people not only emotionally but he truly puts their needs before his own. And that is, strangely enough, a lesson the first Daenerys taught her son by Maron Martell. The earlier Martells we meet in TWoIaF were, let's say, less interested in the well-being/interests of their people.

In that sense, Doran is indeed not exactly the most committed player of the game of thrones. He has other priorities. And that's not a bad thing.

Without question, Stannis is the most "righteous ruler" in the whole series.

And mind you, Doran isn't as selfless as you make him out.  He's balancing his personal desires for political power and revenge with the desire not to hurt the children of the Water Gardens.  Which is great.... but he's still going to risk war, so at the end of the day he does care more about the game of thrones than about the children.

On 7/13/2017 at 7:03 PM, Lord Varys said:

The symbolism refers to the whole revenge thing.

Right.  And the revenge this is "past ripe".

On 7/13/2017 at 7:03 PM, Lord Varys said:

Well, the great reveal is that Doran is doing anything at all. And something as, well, sympathetic as trying to restore the Targaryens. And it is very impressive that he could keep that a secret as long as he did. However, the plan itself is no grand political game.

Why is this sympathetic, at all?  The Targaryens that Doran fought to keep on the throne were, respectively, an insane psychopath with a fetish for burning human beings alive without trial, and a kidnapper/rapist who dishonored Doran's sister in order to be said rapist.  That anyone fought for Aerys or Rhaegar is almost beyond belief.  Doran is concerned primarily with his own political power, full stop.  If he cared about revenge, he has plenty of other options.  If he cared about a Targaryen restoration, he'd be going about his schemes right now in a different, safer way.

 

On 7/13/2017 at 7:03 PM, Lord Varys said:

Doran doesn't know that Arianne doesn't like the idea of a 'King Quentyn'. She told him about the issues she had with him over the letter she read as a child but the revelation that she doesn't *really* like her brother all that much even now, and that she is sort of jealous that he is getting the Targaryen now, is something that's only in her head.

She tried to crown an innocent girl and plunge Dorne into a civil war because of it.  She's very emotionally direct with Doran when she confronts him about the letter, and that she's been stewing over it.

And I never said she doesn't like Quentyn.  She doesn't know him.  She doesn't like the idea of having to kneel to her younger sibling, when her whole life she's been nursing this bitter, if misguided, feeling that she'll have to kneel to him despite having a legally better claim to Dorne.  If Doran was any kind of intelligent, he'd recognize that the super drastic and dangerous actions Arianne takes, which she tells him are specifically because of the whole inheritance thing, could blow up in his face.

On 7/13/2017 at 7:03 PM, Lord Varys said:

I'm looking forward to the meeting between Arianne and Aegon very much because I really don't know how it will go. Is she going to get the hots for him? Will she believe he is Elia's son? What will convince her to join him? Is it going to be her free choice? Are the news about Dany's marriage/alleged death going to force both their hands?

I am too.  My guess is she joins him after Storm's End, realizing that it will effectively commit Dorne now, to her and Aegon and not Quent and Dany, and that the combination of all this momentum, plus some news about the "friends in the Reach" propel them into Kings Landing.

[Lord Varys]

19 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

This is missing my point entirely.  I agree with you that Lord Yronwood cannot just disappear.  This is why I think Doran is a bad plotter.  His reluctance to risk violence to the children of Dorne, while commendable, means that his plotting is doomed to be totally half-assed, because he physically can't give his pawns the resources they need to have an optimal amount of success.

And to say "he's already Doran's man" is to completely not understand how feudal politics work (let alone that Doran is very much dancing on quicksand in regards to keeping Dorne quiet).  Just because Lord Yronwood is loyal doesn't mean he doesn't need to be rewarded and coddled a bit, just like any other lord.  Look at Robb with his bannermen; save the Boltons, they're all very loyal, and they scheme and fight for honors and prestige, and Robb has to work to make them all feel like they're receiving the benefits of their loyalty (e.g. access to the royal person, honors like leading a vanguard, who gets to undertake important diplomatic missions like carrying the royal will).

I'd say Doran made Lord Anders his man by sending Quentyn as a ward to Yronwood in the first place. That way he regained the trust and loyalty of House Yronwood. Else he would never have included any Yronwoods in Quentyn's mission. He trusts Anders, Cletus, and the Big Man more than many of Arianne's companions.

With Doran this means he must have a reason for that. He just doesn't trust the Yronwoods because they are his vassals. They were enemies of House Martell almost as often as the Boltons were enemies of the Starks, perhaps even more often.

19 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

I disagree.  Maybe she wouldn't have stayed.  But if Doran sends a bigger group, they get to Meereen MUCH faster and therefore, maybe Dany isn't engaged.  Maybe the hard offer of one of the Seven Kingdoms backing her is enough of a plum to get her to reconsider in Meereen.  Moreover, what if Doran does the smart thing and sends Oberyn, who is a far more attractive envoy (physically speaking, I mean), and has the contacts and resources in Essos that would help the mission be a success?  Still promise the marriage pact, but don't risk your heir.

If she doesn't want to leave Meereen, it's all obviously a moot point.  But my point is that Doran doesn't know this.  For all he knows she's raving to get out of there.   And his plan, which presupposes that Dany will leave, is still terrible.  You can't take the omniscient readers knowledge of this situation and back into it.

Sure, Doran had any reason to expect Dany wanted to come west. And, again, offering Daenerys Targaryen both the allegiance of Dorne and the hand of the eldest son of the Prince of Dorne is a very powerful gesture. Dorne has no reason to support this Targaryen queen. Coming to her before she even arrives in Westeros is a powerful sign that they mean business and are not opportunists - at least not as much as the other lords of Westeros.

Oberyn may have been more capable to seduce Daenerys but seducing wasn't the goal. It was to offer Daenerys Dorne and Dornish spears upon his arrival in Westeros through the hand of the son of the Prince of Dorne.

Dorne doesn't have to push or manipulate Daenerys into this deal. If she rejects it, she rejects it. And then Daenerys Targaryen might/will not have Dorne. If Dany will want to go to Westeros she will need Dorne. And that's why she would marry Quentyn if the offer came. She simply could not afford to reject him. That's the idea.

Oberyn would have to have arrived before Dany's council discussing leaving Meereen in her second chapter. That's when they made this decision, and I doubt Oberyn would have accomplished that, either

19 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

Without question, Stannis is the most "righteous ruler" in the whole series.

Not sure what you mean by that.

19 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

And mind you, Doran isn't as selfless as you make him out.  He's balancing his personal desires for political power and revenge with the desire not to hurt the children of the Water Gardens.  Which is great.... but he's still going to risk war, so at the end of the day he does care more about the game of thrones than about the children.

Sure, but he wants to make the war he begins not to be a war that is going to have his people die for nothing. Which is basically what most of the wars turned out to be the other powerful people during the series began. And, of course, war also carries the danger of any attacks on the homeland. The children in the Water Gardens won't be sent to war. Grown men (and perhaps even some women) will fight in Doran's wars. But should the war be lost the enemies could invade Dorne as they did in the past and butcher the women and children who stayed at home. Just as Ramsay did with the people of Winterfell.

Doran thinks about that stuff. And it seems that he is willing to cancel his much desired revenge if he concludes that it will do his people more harm than good. Doran is not going to go out there to murder innocent children or sack Oldtown like Obara and Lady Nym suggested.

19 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

Why is this sympathetic, at all?  The Targaryens that Doran fought to keep on the throne were, respectively, an insane psychopath with a fetish for burning human beings alive without trial, and a kidnapper/rapist who dishonored Doran's sister in order to be said rapist.  That anyone fought for Aerys or Rhaegar is almost beyond belief.  Doran is concerned primarily with his own political power, full stop.  If he cared about revenge, he has plenty of other options.  If he cared about a Targaryen restoration, he'd be going about his schemes right now in a different, safer way.

Because we as the readers are supposed to sympathize with Dany to a certain degree. I certainly do. The idea that some Westerosi noble house is actually scheming to restore her to the Iron Throne came as a pleasant surprise to me when first reading AFfC.

Doran also knows he is dying. The goat is slowly killing him. He is not doing this for power, he is to avenge the murder of his sister and their children. And now even to avenge his brother. His loss did greatly affect him.

19 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

She tried to crown an innocent girl and plunge Dorne into a civil war because of it.  She's very emotionally direct with Doran when she confronts him about the letter, and that she's been stewing over it.

And I never said she doesn't like Quentyn.  She doesn't know him.  She doesn't like the idea of having to kneel to her younger sibling, when her whole life she's been nursing this bitter, if misguided, feeling that she'll have to kneel to him despite having a legally better claim to Dorne.  If Doran was any kind of intelligent, he'd recognize that the super drastic and dangerous actions Arianne takes, which she tells him are specifically because of the whole inheritance thing, could blow up in his face.

Arianne and Doran made their peace. And while Arianne talked about her own anger over Doran's letter she never talked about her feelings for Quentyn. Doran could not possibly travel to Griffin's Roost himself. He pretty sick and weak, and he really trusts Arianne now. And she really seems to want to follow in her father's footsteps now.

19 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

I am too.  My guess is she joins him after Storm's End, realizing that it will effectively commit Dorne now, to her and Aegon and not Quent and Dany, and that the combination of all this momentum, plus some news about the "friends in the Reach" propel them into Kings Landing.

Well, it could even go the way that both sides betray each other, fooling themselves that they could include Daenerys in the overall plan. I doubt Arianne is going to tell Aegon or his people about the Dany-Quentyn plan. That is, if they don't receive any news from Meereen about the wedding or Dany's alleged death before Arianne has to make her decision. It is quite clear that Dorne has to join Aegon for him to have any chance. But we really don't know - and have no way of knowing - what Arianne will think of Aegon. Will she like him? Will she buy the story that he is her cousin?

Them learning about Hizdahr or Dany's alleged death before push comes to shove would allow them to keep most of their innocence for now. The Quentyn plan will then be officially dead, and Arianne has only the choice between doing nothing (again) or helping Aegon.

But I'd really like the idea of Arianne not buying the Aegon story at all and still deciding to help him to use him as a pawn to help with the Iron Throne for Daenerys and Quentyn. If 20,000 Dornishmen join him they will dominate his campaign and later court. And that means they could also unmake if they so pleased. However, once the news about Dany's marriage/death arrives Aegon will turn from the pawn to the real deal, and Arianne will have to believe story to get her Targaryen consort after all. And by the time Dany comes she is not going to want to hear anything to the contrary.

[cpg2016]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'd say Doran made Lord Anders his man by sending Quentyn as a ward to Yronwood in the first place. That way he regained the trust and loyalty of House Yronwood. Else he would never have included any Yronwoods in Quentyn's mission. He trusts Anders, Cletus, and the Big Man more than many of Arianne's companions.

With Doran this means he must have a reason for that. He just doesn't trust the Yronwoods because they are his vassals. They were enemies of House Martell almost as often as the Boltons were enemies of the Starks, perhaps even more often.

You're 100% missing my point.  I'm not disagreeing with you; Lord Yronwood is loyal (though Quent is sent there to make amends, not to instill further loyalty).

My point has almost nothing to do with the relationship between the Yronwoods and the Martells.  You can substitute in ANY Dornish House.  The Ullers or Wyls.  The point I'm making, generically, is that Doran should have sent an actual political delegation to Meereen.  Not a bunch of kids in disguise.  As you say, he cannot do this because their absence would be noted.  But this is the whole reason Doran is a shitty plotter - he's so worried about the fate of the Dornish children (which again, is commendable) that he hamstrings his own plans.  If he sends 2 or 3 ships with 150 men and a bunch of nobles, they don't get attacked by pirates, they don't have to take up arms with a sellsword company just to get passage to Slavers Bay - in a word, they get there on time, and with a more impressive delegation than just Quentyn and a scroll of parchment.

And the point about "making him his man" is not a specific insult to the Yronwoods, or anyone else.  Feudal politics demands that the liege lord dispense honors, offices, and lands to his vassals.  That's how you cultivate loyalty.  My original point was that being appointed to lead an important diplomatic mission is exactly the kind of patronage that lords need to be cognizant of.  Just like arranging for your vassal's son to be made a Kingsguard knight (what Fireball wanted), or one of your vassal lords be made a member of the small council (what Mace gets for Mathis Rowan); it's a way to cultivate obligation.  I'm not saying Doran needs to do it specifically for Anders Yronwood, but that he needs to do it with all his lords, as a general rule.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Oberyn may have been more capable to seduce Daenerys but seducing wasn't the goal. It was to offer Daenerys Dorne and Dornish spears upon his arrival in Westeros through the hand of the son of the Prince of Dorne.

Right, but obviously Quentyn being a hot guy (or not) is secondary to the offer of Dornish political and military support.  So why not send Oberyn, who is infinitely more qualified to carry out the mission, and offer Quentyn's hand?  After all, Quent doesn't need to physically be there to be betrothed.  This is my point about poor planning/plotting - Doran sends Quentyn, with a half-assed questing group, when he has better assets at his disposal.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Oberyn would have to have arrived before Dany's council discussing leaving Meereen in her second chapter. That's when they made this decision, and I doubt Oberyn would have accomplished that, either

I can almost guarantee you he would have.  Hizdahr gives 90 days of peace as his betrothal gift or whatever, right?  Which isn't up by the time Quentyn gets there.  So Oberyn, or any other delegation, needs to arrive basically 2-3 months earlier.  Without having to stop in Volantis, or fight pirates, or join a sellsword company and go to Astapor and then march to Meereen, this is definitely possible.  I'm not trying to die on a hill where I say "Oberyn should have been sent".  I'm saying Quentyn shouldn't have.  He's one of the least qualified people for the job.  The whole pomp and circumstance aspect of his mission, which is more important than you think, is entirely nonexistent.  If Doran is truly a good plotter, he should be sending a mission that has a chance of success, instead of 5 kids and a maester.  It's like the start of a bad joke.  And I totally get why he doesn't; he doesn't want to start a war with the Iron Throne.  But that is exactly why he's a bad plotter.  His plot can't succeed, or it kills the children.  And saving those kids (metaphorically) means sending a group to Meereen that is not only not the best equipped to succeed, but likely to fail.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Not sure what you mean by that.

You're saying Doran is one of the best rulers we meet.  I'm saying Stannis, without question, is the best ruler we see.  Up to and including everyone, even Jon.  Stannis is talented, is moral, cares about his people, cares about the welfare of the realm, inspires fanatical loyalty... in every way possible he's the perfect prince.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, but he wants to make the war he begins not to be a war that is going to have his people die for nothing. Which is basically what most of the wars turned out to be the other powerful people during the series began. And, of course, war also carries the danger of any attacks on the homeland. The children in the Water Gardens won't be sent to war. Grown men (and perhaps even some women) will fight in Doran's wars. But should the war be lost the enemies could invade Dorne as they did in the past and butcher the women and children who stayed at home. Just as Ramsay did with the people of Winterfell.

Those kids are dying either way.  Dorne cannot fight the Seven Kingdoms.  Aegon I proved it with dragons.  Daeron I proved it without them.  Any war they fight is a guerrilla war with high civilian casualties.  I applaud Doran for taking the time to think about his people, and not wanting to risk them.  But at the end of the day, his plotting will end with innocent people dead.  He knows it.  He puts his revenge and his ambition ahead of those lives.  His parallel is Varys.  Varys is willing to drown the realm in blood in order to get his perfect prince on the throne, but is also willing to work to mitigate that (e.g. trying to spare Ned).  Doran is the same.  He wants what he wants, and he's willing to let innocents die, though he'll try and mitigate the damage.

And look at Robb Stark.  His war got none of his own people killed.  Tywin's wars got few Westerlander civilians killed.  Ditto Reachmen.  The real sufferers have been the Riverlands.  My point being, people die in war.  Innocents die in war.  It's unavoidable.  Doran is walking a road that is the worst of both worlds.  He could have reconciled himself to the new Baratheon regime and his people would have lived.  He could have committed himself to the Targaryen Restoration and accepted people would die.  Instead, he's made a half-assed effort to put Dany on the Iron Throne, which won't work, because he didn't give it the tools and resources to work.  And as a result, he won't get the revenge or the political power he wants, but he'll still get a war.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Doran also knows he is dying. The goat is slowly killing him. He is not doing this for power, he is to avenge the murder of his sister and their children. And now even to avenge his brother. His loss did greatly affect him.

He's doing it for power.  Otherwise, why bother with a marriage between Quentyn and Daenerys?  Why not just pledge Dornish support?  Hell, send someone, say "we had this deal between Arianne and your brother, obviously that's off the table, but we'll honor the spirit in which it was made"?

The answer is obvious.  It's because Doran wants a member of his family to sit the Iron Throne.  When Elia was married to Rhaegar, Doran stood to be uncle to a king.  I agree entirely that he legitimately wants revenge for a sister he loved.  But he ALSO wants to get back to that privileged political position he had before Robert's Rebellion.  Hence the constant marriage scheming.  It can be more than one thing.  But the fact that he insists that a marriage be a key part of it makes it clear that the political dimension is the driving force, no matter how he justifies it to himself.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Arianne and Doran made their peace. And while Arianne talked about her own anger over Doran's letter she never talked about her feelings for Quentyn. Doran could not possibly travel to Griffin's Roost himself. He pretty sick and weak, and he really trusts Arianne now. And she really seems to want to follow in her father's footsteps now.

She said she was bitter that Quentyn was going to inherit over her.  Not that she hated Quent, not that she hated Doran, but that she resented that her rightful inheritance was being stolen from her.  That she'd have to kneel to her younger brother.  And now, here we are, with Doran plotting to put Quentyn in a superior position to Arianne, again.  A decade of bitterness about this exact issue has been allowed to fester, and Doran knows it - and he still doesn't suspect his daughter might not be thrilled to have to bow to King Quentyn?  Read her TWOW chapters. Her talk about "King Quentyn" sounding silly.  Her recollections of her bitterness.  Her thoughts about Quentyn's inadequacy in general.  She doesn't hate her brother, but she doesn't know him.  She's spent her whole adult life consumed with bitterness over this betrayal, plotting literal treason to make sure she gets the power she deserves, and she hasn't seen Quentyn in years.  And when she finally finds out she was wrong in the specifics of her bitterness, she was right in general - Quentyn will be placed over her, she will have to kneel.

And yes, I know Doran can't go himself, both because of his weakness and because of the reasons he can't send Lord Yronwood or anyone else important to Meereen - it raises to many questions.  But again.... he doesn't have to send Arianne.  He's a poor plotter - he doesn't understand people, and he's so scared of trusting anyone that he doesn't trust the people he NEEDS to, so everything backfires.  Arianne is a crucial part of his plans, but she doesn't know anything about the plan.  Just Doran, Oberyn, and likely Lord Yronwood.

Oh, and by the way, gout isn't a fatal disease (Ben Franklin had it for years, and lots of people today still get it).  It is extraordinarily painful, but he won't die of it.  Just a medical FYI -  he isn't planning the future because he thinks his gout will mean he won't see much more of it.

[Aetherius]

On 7/12/2017 at 7:03 PM, Ser Loras The Gay said:

And Dorne isn't a impenetrable force like the Eyrie.

Is that why Dorne was able to resist Targaryen rule for as long as they wanted while every other region fell with ease?

 

On 7/13/2017 at 11:23 AM, cpg2016 said:

Nope.  Doran just isn't a master strategist, and never was.  As always, Occam's Razor is best - Doran just sucks as a plotter, because he isn't willing to risk anything.  He doesn't want violence brought to the Water Gardens, so he won't back his plots up with the commitment and muscle to make them work.

Doran is a highly intelligent person, he has been formulating their downfall for a long time now and it would seem as though the Lannisters aren't really in the best of positions, are they? 

[Angel Eyes]

On 7/12/2017 at 10:54 PM, Freys Injustice said:

 

Throughout its history, many tried to conquer Dorne, and they all failed. They can try again.

Didn't Tyene suggest that by crowning Myrcella queen, they invite Lannisters into Dorne and guerrilla warfare ensues?

[Sydney Mae]

On 7/12/2017 at 10:20 AM, Ser Loras The Gay said:

Hey everyone, so, I was watching the season 5 and 6 of the GoT series for obvious reasons (season 7 is coming) and again Dorne made me sick because how bad it was portrayed. So I've read again AffC and DwD to remember how good Dorne could be (good meaning better than the series) and I realized something, Quenty Martell quest to marry Dany is ridiculous. They sent him in a impossible quest with a impossible to accept marriage pact and without any resources, only a bunch of "knights" a expert in different tongues and Quenty. Why the quest is so ill prepared if Doran himself said he was planning this for 17 long years? That's his plan? Send his own son to complete a impossible quest to marry Dany? If it is why not send more men to take care of Quentyn? Why not send a better proposal to Dany? It doesn't make any sense, what are you thoughts about it? Do you guys think that's more than meet our eyes?

Doran is sick and by their standards an old man.  He's not as sharp as he needed to be.  It was the only play he had.  Red Viper is dead.  Viserys is dead.  Ser Willem is dead.  What else?  More resources could attract attention but if that was the case he should have sent his own ships instead of having his envoys take passage.  It need not be a fleet.  Just sound ships that can take care of themselves in case of a pirate attack.

[The Commentator]

Doran could have sent ships and that's safer than taking public transportation.  He's stingy with his resources.  Arrianne is poorly equipped for her mission.  The only one who came in serious is Oberyn when he arrived in KL.

[Angel Eyes]

2 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Doran could have sent ships and that's safer than taking public transportation.  He's stingy with his resources.  Arrianne is poorly equipped for her mission.  The only one who came in serious is Oberyn when he arrived in KL.

And look how that ended for Oberyn. 

Really, that was a mind-blowing scheme.

[cpg2016]

On 12/1/2017 at 0:07 PM, Aetherius said:

Doran is a highly intelligent person, he has been formulating their downfall for a long time now and it would seem as though the Lannisters aren't really in the best of positions, are they? 

Yes, but he had nothing to do with that...

I've been plotting to build a lot of expensive housing in New York City, and it seems as if it's getting built.  See how those things don't have a causal relationship, either?

What have Doran's plots achieved?  His son is dead, his daughter is so psychologically scarred by her supposed disinheritance that she's going to ally with a fake Targaryen in order to preempt her dead brother, Oberyn is dead looking for vengeance, and none of the vengeance Doran hoped for has come at Martell hands.