What really led to the Red Wedding

[GhastonGreyGhost]

First post here, not sure if I'm posting on the right place, so please feel free to tell me if I screwed up. There are SPOILERS HERE

Sooo, I finished ASOS and there was something about Jeyne and Robb that me wonder. As the story goes, Robb was storming the Westerling's castle and took an arrow somewhere. Jeyne Westerling took care of Robb and his wounds and gave him some comfort. They fell in love and... Red Wedding.

My theory, which I don't consider to be that good but it is interesting to consider is, could it be that Robb was seduced on purpose by Jeyne, trying in advance to break the Frey-Stark alliance, with the backing of Tywin?

Points in favor of it:

• The Westerlings are vassals of the Lannisters
• Tywin never demonstrated any discontent about it.
• I haven't read AFFC but I've been told the Westerlings are pardoned and pretty much nothing happens to them.

So yeah, nothing solid, but was it was fun to consider the possibility and try to justify it.

[Makk]

Read Feast and then come back and discuss. There is some more light to shed on the situation there.

[Livesundersink]

Robb let his cock do his thinking for him and as is the running theme in Westeros no one stepped in to stop their king from making a mistake.

[elder brother jonothor dar]

6 minutes ago, Livesundersink said:

Robb let his cock do his thinking for him and as is the running theme in Westeros no one stepped in to stop their king from making a mistake.

Robb should have taken a look at his name sake, Robert already had 1 bastard during his engagement to Neds sister and Ned does not think anything of it.

 

The most Robb should have done was find her suitable husband any easy task for a king with 2 kingdoms sworn to him.

[BalerionTheCat]

Maybe both Robb and Jeyne were drugged by Jeyne's mother. The Westerling were later rewarded by Tywin. Not like the Castameres.

But I suggest you finish the books before inquiring here. It will spoil you. Here you may talk of everything books, except Winds (with spoiler tags).

[devilish]

I find it very difficult to believe that the Red Wedding was purely down to Robb’s breaking his vows. Such a thing happened in the past, among people who value honour more than the Freys do and it lead to nothing serious. For example Cregan Stark was promised a marriage between a Stark and a Targ princess that never happened. We’re talking here of one of the most iconic Starks in Westeros history, a man who brought order to Westeros in a time of chaos.In such circumstances, Walder could have easily pulled his troops and remain neutral. That would have been the honourable and the safest way out. One mistake at the twins and Robb’s 20k army could have easily overpowered Walder’s measly 4k army. So the red wedding was a risky business indeed (and Walder is hardly a person who love taking risks).

So what happened? Why taking such risk? To answer that question we need to revisit the Frey’s recent history.  We know that Walder’s son was married to Tywin’s sister something the old lion objected about but respected nevertheless. Emmon Frey and his brood were allowed to live in CR on Lannister payrolls, an honour only close family members were given. The Lannisters-Freys enjoyed a good relationship at least till Robert’s rebellion. In fact both the Lannisters and the Freys joined Robert’s rebellion late (and after the battle of the trident) which suggest that they co-ordinated their course of action together. Walder’s actions infuriated Hoster and yet, despite being their LP and one of the most powerful people around (ie father in law of two wardens), the man wasn’t able to punish them adequately.  Could it be the case that the lion provided his protection in exchange of the service rendered?

The old lion might have considered this case closed. The Freys had their fill with Emmon marrying Genna (a woman of way higher nobility standing then him) and living on CR payroll. Walder on the other hand was granted the lion’s protection.

 However, I can’t help thinking that Walder felt that he was short-changed. Tywin’s daughter was now married to the king, Lannisters were mushrooming at court and yet, the ever loyal Freys were getting nothing out of it.  Quite the contrary, Hoster’s constant jabs was hurting their reputation. The old rat couldn’t afford confronting Tywin else he risked losing the lion’s protection. However, I can’t see him happy about how things ended up.

When the war of 5 kings started, Tywin moved quickly to break the Tully’s back before Robb could react. It was a well calculated risk. The Vale was ruled by Lysa whose a coward. The North on the other hand was led by a boy who would take ages to raise a decent army and to march it to the Riverlands. The North’s only chance of saving Hoster would be to be given access at the twins, something Walder would never allow, especially after enjoying Lannister protection for so many years. Unfortunately, for the Lannisters the old lion underestimated Walder’s pettiness. The rat sealed a ‘better’ deal with Robb and allowed quick access to the Northern army which lead to Lannister’s defeat and Jamie’s capture. Tywin would later on get his son back but he will return to him broken and maimed.

Now imagine how Walder must have felt, when he learnt that the Lannisters-Tyrells had sealed an alliance. On one hand he was humiliated by Robb whom in turn was busy decapitating his own bannermen. On the other hand he was perfectly aware that he had lost Tywin’s trust. Even if the old lion could close an eye to Walder’s devious action, which was responsible for Tywin’s only defeat in battle, his grandson being forced to marry his enemy’s widow and Jamie losing his sword’s arm, he would probably want the twins to be in safer hands than Walder’s. After all the twins held great military significance. Tywin could have easily ‘convince’ the king to force Walder and most of his sons to take the black with the twins falling right on Emmon’s laps. By doing so Emmon would be rewarded for sticking to the Lannisters while Walder would end up punished for his actions.

Now Lets now focus on Robb’s POV. Once the Rose and the Lions joined houses, there was no way Robb could have prevailed. The two houses could easily raise a 100k army which would have dwarfed and annihilated Robb’s 20k. However, the war wasn’t over yet. If Robb somehow find his way at the right side of Moat Cailin, then he could have kept the war going for years. Invading the North would have been a logistics nightmare that neither the rose nor the lions were very thrilled to engage in. So whatever happens, Robb needed to be stopped while he’s still in the Riverlands. The only way Walder could survive the King’s justice was to prove his loyalty and usefulness by stopping Robb himself. That was something he could never achieve with his 4k army, at least not through conventional warfare. An excuse was needed for Robb to go to the twins. His guard must be down and a quick but spectacular death was needed, which should be enough to lower the morale of his superior army before they can actually take on the twins.

 

[DarkBastard]

Keep reading, there is more in the rest of the books!

Complete speculation on my part:

I've always thought that Ned probably never (as a father) instilled in Robb the virtue of monogamy.  Regardless of Jon's parentage, it would be difficult, even hypocritical in Ned's eyes...to discuss it with his son.  Ned was shown to have immediately quashed any discussion about Jon's mother, and chose to never speak of it.  For all the guidance Robb received about being a Lord, honor, and duty...I bet the loyalty of marriage was glossed over, if mentioned at all by Ned.  

This might leave the children only to their own speculation...that their father married their mother out of duty but followed his heart once with some unknown woman in the south.  A child doesn't want to picture their father with a whore; in the absence of the truth they would likely fill it with passion and romance.  Did Robb think he found the same?  Did he follow it instead of marrying the Frey girl out of duty?  In his mind, did that correct the "mistake" made by his father?  

Like a Greek tragedy, the decisions and circumstances of his their youth created a situation that would ultimately lead to his their downfall. 

Maybe.  That's just the shit that runs through my head when I'm reading!

[tallTale]

Obviously either Frey went too far in exacting revenge for his "slight" or he had the double cross planned from the beginning. 

[Ralphis Baratheon]

Many things led to the Red Wedding. One big event was that after the Frey's joined Robb the Tyrell/Lannister alliance formed. Robb could never beat the combined strength of the Westerlands and the Reach. The two richest Kingdoms in the realm with the largest armies. He could also never hold the Riverlands against them with just the North and Riverlands on his side. At some point he would have to retreat North of Moat Callin if he didn't want his whole army destroyed. The Frey's among other River Lords would be forced to face the wrath of the Lannister/Tyrell armies. I'm sure Walder and the other Freys were aware of this. In my opinion Robb gave Walder an easy out and reason to betray him and put himself on the winning side of the war. Even if the Iron Born stayed neutral Robb could never hold the Riverlands against the Lannister/Tyrell armies. He simply did not have the men or resources.

[The Commentator]

What led to the red wedding? 

1. Robb's immaturity, arrogance, and stupidity.  Somebody already said it.  Robb let his other brain do the thinking.
2. Key players on the Stark team were not all on the same page.  I.E., their interests were not aligned.  They each had different personal priorities.  ¹Catelyn put personal concerns ahead of the war effort.  And in Westeros, the success or failure on the battlefield determines the fate of many people, including those loyal enough to answer Robb's call to arms.  [This is interesting because Cat's decision is pretty similar to Jon's three books later].  ²Roose wanted to move up in the world.  Maybe.  Maybe Roose honestly thought the north would be better off without the Starks.
3. Robb exercised justice that ended up not being just.  He executed a key bannerman but let Catelyn off the grill with a light hand slap.  Yes, I understand Karstark killed the squires but executing the man was not the smart move.  There are no rules in rebellion and Robb had the option to pardon Karstark.
4. Walder saw the Robb ship sinking.  He knew it was a lost cause.  Yes, he was angry with Robb.  Walder had every right to be angry with Robb.  He had every right to despise Robb.  Robb was a despicable oathbreaker.  But Walder Frey is a very intelligent and highly disciplined man.  He could have set that aside if he thought remaining loyal to Robb (who doesn't deserve his loyalty) was in the best interest of his family.  The best players in life are the ones who don't war their hearts on their sleeve (as we say in America).  Walder can keep his disdain for the Starks under control if the benefits to do so are generous enough.  The safety of his family is always his priority.  Now, say what you want about the old guy, but he takes the matter of his family's welfare seriously.  That makes him a better father than most.  Walder needed a way back to mend his relations with the winning side and keep all of the Frey's wealth intact.  Tywin offered him a way back. 
5. Lords Tywin, Walder, and Roose are all mature, seasoned, highly intelligent men.  They outplayed Robb, Edmure, Brynden, and Catelyn.  Those men won the war for Joffrey and Cersei.

[John Suburbs]

On Invalid Date at 10:55 PM, GhastonGreyGhost said:

First post here, not sure if I'm posting on the right place, so please feel free to tell me if I screwed up. There are SPOILERS HERE

Sooo, I finished ASOS and there was something about Jeyne and Robb that me wonder. As the story goes, Robb was storming the Westerling's castle and took an arrow somewhere. Jeyne Westerling took care of Robb and his wounds and gave him some comfort. They fell in love and... Red Wedding.

My theory, which I don't consider to be that good but it is interesting to consider is, could it be that Robb was seduced on purpose by Jeyne, trying in advance to break the Frey-Stark alliance, with the backing of Tywin?

Points in favor of it:

• The Westerlings are vassals of the Lannisters
• Tywin never demonstrated any discontent about it.
• I haven't read AFFC but I've been told the Westerlings are pardoned and pretty much nothing happens to them.

So yeah, nothing solid, but was it was fun to consider the possibility and try to justify it.

Since you've finished Storm, you might want to go back to the council meeting where Tywin first tells Tyrion about Robb's marriage to Jeyne. Tyrion recalls a few salient details about the Westerling and Spicer families that might be germane to your theory.

[TMIFairy]

21 hours ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

The most Robb should have done was find her [Jeyne Westerling] suitable husband any easy task for a king with 2 kingdoms sworn to him.

My sentiment exactly. Love or not - Robb was oath bound to marry a Frey - it was Politically Correct to do so for all sorts of reasons.

17 hours ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

Many things led to the Red Wedding. One big event was that after the Frey's joined Robb the Tyrell/Lannister alliance formed. Robb could never beat the combined strength of the Westerlands and the Reach. The two richest Kingdoms in the realm with the largest armies. He could also never hold the Riverlands against them with just the North and Riverlands on his side. At some point he would have to retreat North of Moat Callin if he didn't want his whole army destroyed. The Frey's among other River Lords would be forced to face the wrath of the Lannister/Tyrell armies. I'm sure Walder and the other Freys were aware of this. In my opinion Robb gave Walder an easy out and reason to betray him and put himself on the winning side of the war. Even if the Iron Born stayed neutral Robb could never hold the Riverlands against the Lannister/Tyrell armies. He simply did not have the men or resources.

 

17 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

What led to the red wedding? 

1. Walder saw the Robb ship sinking.  He knew it was a lost cause.  Yes, he was angry with Robb.  Walder had every right to be angry with Robb.  He had every right to despise Robb.  Robb was a despicable oathbreaker.  But Walder Frey is a very intelligent and highly disciplined man.  He could have set that aside if he thought remaining loyal to Robb (who doesn't deserve his loyalty) was in the best interest of his family. 

Amen to both of the above. Walder saw Robb's (who had proven himself to be a lousy king) ship going down and wished to save the Twins from the fate of Castamere. His goodbrother? goodson? - Tywin is brother to his son's wife - is not known for leniency.

Roose - and in broader context - the North Question (and outraged Karstark bannermen) are a makeweight, an afterthought. The Red Wedding could only happen if Walder wished it so - Roose's participation was of no consequence. Simply more Northmen to kill to avoid a "Red Runs the Green Fork" song.

 

[Adam Yozza]

19 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

What led to the red wedding? 

1. Robb's immaturity, arrogance, and stupidity.  Somebody already said it.  Robb let his other brain do the thinking.
2. Key players on the Stark team were not all on the same page.  I.E., their interests were not aligned.  They each had different personal priorities.  ¹Catelyn put personal concerns ahead of the war effort.  And in Westeros, the success or failure on the battlefield determines the fate of many people, including those loyal enough to answer Robb's call to arms.  [This is interesting because Cat's decision is pretty similar to Jon's three books later].  ²Roose wanted to move up in the world.  Maybe.  Maybe Roose honestly thought the north would be better off without the Starks.

I agree with the principle of most of your post, even if I think you are letting Stark-hate exaggerate a few things; for example executing Karstark was justice, but that doesn't mean it was the smart thing to do.

However "Maybe Roose honestly thought the north would be better off without the Starks"- Hahaha, no. Absolutley wrong. Roose doesn't give two flying fucks about the wellbeing of either the North or it's people. He betrayed Robb because he wanted to increase his own power and because he could see the war was lost and didn't mind jumpong ship

[Ser_Jon_General]

19 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

What led to the red wedding? 

1. Robb's immaturity, arrogance, and stupidity.  Somebody already said it.  Robb let his other brain do the thinking.
2. Key players on the Stark team were not all on the same page.  I.E., their interests were not aligned.  They each had different personal priorities.  ¹Catelyn put personal concerns ahead of the war effort.  And in Westeros, the success or failure on the battlefield determines the fate of many people, including those loyal enough to answer Robb's call to arms.  [This is interesting because Cat's decision is pretty similar to Jon's three books later].  ²Roose wanted to move up in the world.  Maybe.  Maybe Roose honestly thought the north would be better off without the Starks.
3. Robb exercised justice that ended up not being just.  He executed a key bannerman but let Catelyn off the grill with a light hand slap.  Yes, I understand Karstark killed the squires but executing the man was not the smart move.  There are no rules in rebellion and Robb had the option to pardon Karstark.
4. Walder saw the Robb ship sinking.  He knew it was a lost cause.  Yes, he was angry with Robb.  Walder had every right to be angry with Robb.  He had every right to despise Robb.  Robb was a despicable oathbreaker.  But Walder Frey is a very intelligent and highly disciplined man.  He could have set that aside if he thought remaining loyal to Robb (who doesn't deserve his loyalty) was in the best interest of his family.  The best players in life are the ones who don't war their hearts on their sleeve (as we say in America).  Walder can keep his disdain for the Starks under control if the benefits to do so are generous enough.  The safety of his family is always his priority.  Now, say what you want about the old guy, but he takes the matter of his family's welfare seriously.  That makes him a better father than most.  Walder needed a way back to mend his relations with the winning side and keep all of the Frey's wealth intact.  Tywin offered him a way back. 
5. Lords Tywin, Walder, and Roose are all mature, seasoned, highly intelligent men.  They outplayed Robb, Edmure, Brynden, and Catelyn.  Those men won the war for Joffrey and Cersei.

The way that I read it was that there was always something off about the Frey's loyalty to the Starks.

Right after the sack of Winterfell and before Robb breaks his oath to the Freys, and perhaps long before the news of the sack could have reached the combatants in the Riverlands, we have two young Frey boys who act completely out of character for anyone apparently loyal to the Starks:

ACoK - Theon IV

Quote

"Let me come too. I want that wolfskin cloak." A boy stepped forward, no older than Bran. It took Theon a moment to remember him. "I've hunted lots of times before," Walder Frey said. "Red deer and elk, and even boar."

What would have happened if they had caught Bran and Rickon?  The Freys would have been complicit in the death of two direwolves and perhaps two Stark children.  There is no way, in my mind, that Big and Little Walder would have considered hunting the Stark children if they didn't already have some inkling of the Frey's ultimate betrayal.  That leads to the obvious conclusion that the Freys were always planning on betraying the Starks, the Red Wedding with the backing of Tywin was the first good opportunity that they were given but if it hadn't happened they would have betrayed and attacked the Starks at a different point, once the opportunity arose.

[TMIFairy]

These are boys of 10 ...

Little Walder was a little psychopat in the making.

Telling ten year boys of plans of killing one's liege lord is NOT sensible - Walder Frey was many things, but stupid he was NOT.

This is in July? early August? - Robb breaking his word to Frey happens around this time, or not long afterwards - so this is "pre-break" and before news of the Jeyne Westerling incident spreads.

IMO you may be reading too much into it   

[Aline de Gavrillac]

12 hours ago, TMIFairy said:

Roose - and in broader context - the North Question (and outraged Karstark bannermen) are a makeweight, an afterthought. The Red Wedding could only happen if Walder wished it so - Roose's participation was of no consequence. Simply more Northmen to kill to avoid a "Red Runs the Green Fork" song.

This is an interesting point to bring up.  Roose was the least important member of the team but I can see where he may have served Tywin and Walder as liaison.  Walder never leaves his castle and we know Tywin and Roose just missed each other at Harrenhall.  A secret message may have come to Roose from Tywin. 

[Dorian Martell's son]

On 7/13/2017 at 7:55 PM, GhastonGreyGhost said:

I haven't read AFFC but........

Stop right there. This and the book afterward have a lot to say about it. Read these before putting theories out on a forum where most everyone has read everything 

[Barbrey Dustin]

On 7/14/2017 at 10:17 AM, Widowmaker 811 said:

What led to the red wedding? 

1. Robb's immaturity, arrogance, and stupidity.  Somebody already said it.  Robb let his other brain do the thinking.
2. Key players on the Stark team were not all on the same page.  I.E., their interests were not aligned.  They each had different personal priorities.  ¹Catelyn put personal concerns ahead of the war effort.  And in Westeros, the success or failure on the battlefield determines the fate of many people, including those loyal enough to answer Robb's call to arms.  [This is interesting because Cat's decision is pretty similar to Jon's three books later].  ²Roose wanted to move up in the world.  Maybe.  Maybe Roose honestly thought the north would be better off without the Starks.
3. Robb exercised justice that ended up not being just.  He executed a key bannerman but let Catelyn off the grill with a light hand slap.  Yes, I understand Karstark killed the squires but executing the man was not the smart move.  There are no rules in rebellion and Robb had the option to pardon Karstark.
4. Walder saw the Robb ship sinking.  He knew it was a lost cause.  Yes, he was angry with Robb.  Walder had every right to be angry with Robb.  He had every right to despise Robb.  Robb was a despicable oathbreaker.  But Walder Frey is a very intelligent and highly disciplined man.  He could have set that aside if he thought remaining loyal to Robb (who doesn't deserve his loyalty) was in the best interest of his family.  The best players in life are the ones who don't war their hearts on their sleeve (as we say in America).  Walder can keep his disdain for the Starks under control if the benefits to do so are generous enough.  The safety of his family is always his priority.  Now, say what you want about the old guy, but he takes the matter of his family's welfare seriously.  That makes him a better father than most.  Walder needed a way back to mend his relations with the winning side and keep all of the Frey's wealth intact.  Tywin offered him a way back. 
5. Lords Tywin, Walder, and Roose are all mature, seasoned, highly intelligent men.  They outplayed Robb, Edmure, Brynden, and Catelyn.  Those men won the war for Joffrey and Cersei.

On 7/14/2017 at 10:17 AM, Widowmaker 811 said:

Key players on the Stark team were not all on the same page.  I.E., their interests were not aligned.  They each had different personal priorities.  ¹Catelyn put personal concerns ahead of the war effort.  And in Westeros, the success or failure on the battlefield determines the fate of many people, including those loyal enough to answer Robb's call to arms.  [This is interesting because Cat's decision is pretty similar to Jon's three books later].  ²Roose wanted to move up in the world.  Maybe.  Maybe Roose honestly thought the north would be better off without the Starks.

Robb himself was out of sync with his team.  He married Jeyne and insulted the Freys.  Edmure was out of sync.  He screwed up their battle plans. 

[Julia H.]

On 2017. 07. 14. at 3:04 PM, devilish said:

I find it very difficult to believe that the Red Wedding was purely down to Robb’s breaking his vows. Such a thing happened in the past, among people who value honour more than the Freys do and it lead to nothing serious. For example Cregan Stark was promised a marriage between a Stark and a Targ princess that never happened. We’re talking here of one of the most iconic Starks in Westeros history, a man who brought order to Westeros in a time of chaos.In such circumstances, Walder could have easily pulled his troops and remain neutral. That would have been the honourable and the safest way out. One mistake at the twins and Robb’s 20k army could have easily overpowered Walder’s measly 4k army. So the red wedding was a risky business indeed (and Walder is hardly a person who love taking risks).

So what happened? Why taking such risk? To answer that question we need to revisit the Frey’s recent history.  We know that Walder’s son was married to Tywin’s sister something the old lion objected about but respected nevertheless. Emmon Frey and his brood were allowed to live in CR on Lannister payrolls, an honour only close family members were given. The Lannisters-Freys enjoyed a good relationship at least till Robert’s rebellion. In fact both the Lannisters and the Freys joined Robert’s rebellion late (and after the battle of the trident) which suggest that they co-ordinated their course of action together. Walder’s actions infuriated Hoster and yet, despite being their LP and one of the most powerful people around (ie father in law of two wardens), the man wasn’t able to punish them adequately.  Could it be the case that the lion provided his protection in exchange of the service rendered?

The old lion might have considered this case closed. The Freys had their fill with Emmon marrying Genna (a woman of way higher nobility standing then him) and living on CR payroll. Walder on the other hand was granted the lion’s protection.

 However, I can’t help thinking that Walder felt that he was short-changed. Tywin’s daughter was now married to the king, Lannisters were mushrooming at court and yet, the ever loyal Freys were getting nothing out of it.  Quite the contrary, Hoster’s constant jabs was hurting their reputation. The old rat couldn’t afford confronting Tywin else he risked losing the lion’s protection. However, I can’t see him happy about how things ended up.

When the war of 5 kings started, Tywin moved quickly to break the Tully’s back before Robb could react. It was a well calculated risk. The Vale was ruled by Lysa whose a coward. The North on the other hand was led by a boy who would take ages to raise a decent army and to march it to the Riverlands. The North’s only chance of saving Hoster would be to be given access at the twins, something Walder would never allow, especially after enjoying Lannister protection for so many years. Unfortunately, for the Lannisters the old lion underestimated Walder’s pettiness. The rat sealed a ‘better’ deal with Robb and allowed quick access to the Northern army which lead to Lannister’s defeat and Jamie’s capture. Tywin would later on get his son back but he will return to him broken and maimed.

Now imagine how Walder must have felt, when he learnt that the Lannisters-Tyrells had sealed an alliance. On one hand he was humiliated by Robb whom in turn was busy decapitating his own bannermen. On the other hand he was perfectly aware that he had lost Tywin’s trust. Even if the old lion could close an eye to Walder’s devious action, which was responsible for Tywin’s only defeat in battle, his grandson being forced to marry his enemy’s widow and Jamie losing his sword’s arm, he would probably want the twins to be in safer hands than Walder’s. After all the twins held great military significance. Tywin could have easily ‘convince’ the king to force Walder and most of his sons to take the black with the twins falling right on Emmon’s laps. By doing so Emmon would be rewarded for sticking to the Lannisters while Walder would end up punished for his actions.

Now Lets now focus on Robb’s POV. Once the Rose and the Lions joined houses, there was no way Robb could have prevailed. The two houses could easily raise a 100k army which would have dwarfed and annihilated Robb’s 20k. However, the war wasn’t over yet. If Robb somehow find his way at the right side of Moat Cailin, then he could have kept the war going for years. Invading the North would have been a logistics nightmare that neither the rose nor the lions were very thrilled to engage in. So whatever happens, Robb needed to be stopped while he’s still in the Riverlands. The only way Walder could survive the King’s justice was to prove his loyalty and usefulness by stopping Robb himself. That was something he could never achieve with his 4k army, at least not through conventional warfare. An excuse was needed for Robb to go to the twins. His guard must be down and a quick but spectacular death was needed, which should be enough to lower the morale of his superior army before they can actually take on the twins.

 

That's a very well thought out analysis and a very likely scenario. Robb gave Walder an excuse when he married Jeyne, but Walder didn't really need an excuse to join the winning side at whatever cost. If Robb had remained faithful to the Frey-bride, Walder would simply have said (for example) that he had always meant to be on the Lannister side and that killing a king who was ready to marry into his family should be more than enough proof of his loyalty. 

On 2017. 07. 14. at 3:09 PM, DarkBastard said:

 

I've always thought that Ned probably never (as a father) instilled in Robb the virtue of monogamy.  Regardless of Jon's parentage, it would be difficult, even hypocritical in Ned's eyes...to discuss it with his son.  Ned was shown to have immediately quashed any discussion about Jon's mother, and chose to never speak of it.  For all the guidance Robb received about being a Lord, honor, and duty...I bet the loyalty of marriage was glossed over, if mentioned at all by Ned.  

This might leave the children only to their own speculation...that their father married their mother out of duty but followed his heart once with some unknown woman in the south.  A child doesn't want to picture their father with a whore; in the absence of the truth they would likely fill it with passion and romance.  Did Robb think he found the same?  Did he follow it instead of marrying the Frey girl out of duty?  In his mind, did that correct the "mistake" made by his father?  

Like a Greek tragedy, the decisions and circumstances of his their youth created a situation that would ultimately lead to his their downfall. 

 

I really like this idea also because Robb's thinking would nicely parallel Jon's. Jon thought of his father breaking his oath to Catelyn when he broke his NW wow with Ygritte and he thought of Ned again when he left Ygritte and returned to Castle Black - Ned had also returned to Catelyn and to his duty. Robb may also have compared himself to Ned, but with a different result: He hadn't married the Frey girl yet (I know he had made a promise but at least he hadn't taken the actual wedding wow), so he could still change his mind and "correct Ned's mistake". (Ned, being already married, had had less freedom to make a new decision.)  It could also be a factor that Robb knew how Jon had felt about being a bastard and how he had been treated by Catelyn and he didn't want to risk a similar fate for his first-born child, should Jeyne become pregnant. At the same time, having another man bring up his bastard child was hardly an option if he considered Ned to be his role-model. 

I wonder what would have happened if Robb had realized that Walder Frey had no reason to be on his side any longer (not only because of Jeyne, but also because of the Lannister-Tyrell alliance). I'm not saying he would have won the war, but he could have avoided the Red Wedding at least. We know that Catelyn had very bad feelings about going to the Twins again. Perhaps if Hoster Tully had been alive and able to give Robb counsel, he would have told him not to trust the Freys at that point. 

[cpg2016]

On 7/14/2017 at 5:37 AM, Livesundersink said:

Robb let his cock do his thinking for him and as is the running theme in Westeros no one stepped in to stop their king from making a mistake.

This is wrong.  The Freys and Roose Bolton are already planning to betray Robb.  GRRM has said as much.  The Red Wedding is as vicious and brutal as it is because Walder Frey is making it personal, so to speak, but he was aiming to get out of his vassalship to Robb after Tywin is given the vctory at the Blackwater.