What really led to the Red Wedding

[cpg2016]

On 7/14/2017 at 5:37 AM, Livesundersink said:

Robb let his cock do his thinking for him and as is the running theme in Westeros no one stepped in to stop their king from making a mistake.

This is wrong.  The Freys and Roose Bolton are already planning to betray Robb.  GRRM has said as much.  The Red Wedding is as vicious and brutal as it is because Walder Frey is making it personal, so to speak, but he was aiming to get out of his vassalship to Robb after Tywin is given the vctory at the Blackwater.

[divica]

You are all wrong. The red wedding happens because of mel.

If she hadn t killed renly the lannisters were doomed. The tyrels woudn t have joined them and they were facing na attack from 2 armies. If things really became bad for the lannisters we could have even dorne joining the fray.

One simple red priestess is the culprit for all the war and death that has happened since then.

[DarkBastard]

On 7/17/2017 at 7:58 AM, Julia H. said:

I really like this idea also because Robb's thinking would nicely parallel Jon's. Jon thought of his father breaking his oath to Catelyn when he broke his NW wow with Ygritte and he thought of Ned again when he left Ygritte and returned to Castle Black - Ned had also returned to Catelyn and to his duty. Robb may also have compared himself to Ned, but with a different result: He hadn't married the Frey girl yet (I know he had made a promise but at least he hadn't taken the actual wedding wow), so he could still change his mind and "correct Ned's mistake". (Ned, being already married, had had less freedom to make a new decision.)  It could also be a factor that Robb knew how Jon had felt about being a bastard and how he had been treated by Catelyn and he didn't want to risk a similar fate for his first-born child, should Jeyne become pregnant. At the same time, having another man bring up his bastard child was hardly an option if he considered Ned to be his role-model. 

 

Great points...I agree!

[Blackfish Tully]

19 hours ago, divica said:

You are all wrong. The red wedding happens because of mel.

If she hadn t killed renly the lannisters were doomed. The tyrels woudn t have joined them and they were facing na attack from 2 armies. If things really became bad for the lannisters we could have even dorne joining the fray.

One simple red priestess is the culprit for all the war and death that has happened since then.

This is a great point . The posters who claim that Tywin outplayed Robb all seem to ignore the fact that until the shadow baby killed Renly it was Robb that was winning and Tywin who was in a desperate situation. What would Tywin have done if Renly crushes Stannis and moves his army to Kings Landing? would Tywin had any chance against Renly and the Tyrells ? not to mention also having Robb and the Riverlords in the Westerlands and at his rear ? 

[cpg2016]

On 7/17/2017 at 5:55 PM, divica said:

You are all wrong. The red wedding happens because of mel.

If she hadn t killed renly the lannisters were doomed. The tyrels woudn t have joined them and they were facing na attack from 2 armies. If things really became bad for the lannisters we could have even dorne joining the fray.

One simple red priestess is the culprit for all the war and death that has happened since then.

This is an awful answer.  I guess th Red Wedding really happens because of Rickard Stark.  If he hadn't gotten married and/or had kids, none of the events of the books would have taken place at all.  Maybe it was Azor Ahai's fault... if he lets the Others win back in the Long Night, ditto, no humans around to have the Red Wedding.

[divica]

5 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

This is a great point . The posters who claim that Tywin outplayed Robb all seem to ignore the fact that until the shadow baby killed Renly it was Robb that was winning and Tywin who was in a desperate situation. What would Tywin have done if Renly crushes Stannis and moves his army to Kings Landing? would Tywin had any chance against Renly and the Tyrells ? not to mention also having Robb and the Riverlords in the Westerlands and at his rear ? 

Tywin would need to buy sellswords from essos, talk with the iron islands so that they could be a greater menace for robb and try to make some bannermen turn on their lords or some other kind of treason.

However, I think it is garanteed that the lannisters would either loose KL or face a siege putting all of their forces inside KL.

People like to talk about how the show is full of plot holes, but cersei killing robert is one of the most stupid things in the books and should have ended with all the lannisters dead. She knows stannis will opose joffrei and he will have the stormlands with him, dorne and the vale will either stay out of the sucession war or opose the lannisters, the north will either support stannis (if she lets ned live and he can talk to cat/robb) or stay out of it and the riverlands were under attack so they would either join stannis or start fighting the lannisters on their own.

I admit that cersei couldn t know renly would declare himself king and gain the support of the reach and that tywin couldn t imagine that joffrei would kill ned, but the lannisters were surrounded by enemies and their only possible allies were the tyrells. If lysa wasn t a coward controled by LF (which noone knows) given her hate for the lannisters and that her sister and father were against them we could have a north, riverlands and vale aliance with the stormlands... against such odds the tyrells wouldn t join the lannisters and they would be alone against everybody!

[divica]

7 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

This is an awful answer.  I guess th Red Wedding really happens because of Rickard Stark.  If he hadn't gotten married and/or had kids, none of the events of the books would have taken place at all.  Maybe it was Azor Ahai's fault... if he lets the Others win back in the Long Night, ditto, no humans around to have the Red Wedding.

The only diference is that Renly and mel are involved in the same war as robb whille all those people are from the distant past.

Mel's actions lead the tyrels into the lannister side which should make them the biggest army, I dont remeber the numbers but maybe stannis+robb had a smaller army that lannisters+tyrells which when we take into account that they have to atack KL which is well fortified makes their chances of success even smaller.

As robbs chances at victory decrease the probability of bannermen betraying him increases...

[cpg2016]

41 minutes ago, divica said:

The only diference is that Renly and mel are involved in the same war as robb whille all those people are from the distant past.

Mel's actions lead the tyrels into the lannister side which should make them the biggest army, I dont remeber the numbers but maybe stannis+robb had a smaller army that lannisters+tyrells which when we take into account that they have to atack KL which is well fortified makes their chances of success even smaller.

As robbs chances at victory decrease the probability of bannermen betraying him increases...

Fine, so Cersei having Robert killed caused it.

Saying someone "caused" something means there has to be intent.  Melisandre isn't trying to cause the Red Wedding.  She sees it happening in the flames and puts on the whole leech song-and-dance for Stannis to get him to trust her.  Walder Frey and Tywin Lannister and Sybelle Spicer, to a lesser extent, "caused" the Red Wedding because they planned it.  Melisandre has no idea about it, just that Robb dies.

[divica]

9 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

Fine, so Cersei having Robert killed caused it.

Saying someone "caused" something means there has to be intent.  Melisandre isn't trying to cause the Red Wedding.  She sees it happening in the flames and puts on the whole leech song-and-dance for Stannis to get him to trust her.  Walder Frey and Tywin Lannister and Sybelle Spicer, to a lesser extent, "caused" the Red Wedding because they planned it.  Melisandre has no idea about it, just that Robb dies.

You don t need intent to cause something. If an unferessen consequequence of a person's actions leads to something the that person causes something.

[cpg2016]

4 hours ago, divica said:

You don t need intent to cause something. If an unferessen consequequence of a person's actions leads to something the that person causes something.

Right... but in that case, any action of any character in the books causes the Red Wedding.  Lysa's affair with Petyr 20 years back is relevant, because without it, she doesn't poison Jon Arryn, so Ned doesn't become Hand, so he isn't executed, so Robb doesn't go to war, so no Red Wedding.

My point is that following those kinds of absurd chains of events are ridiculous, but if "unforeseen consequence of your actions" is an acceptable definition for "caused," then anything counts.  Hence, intent.  Lord Tytos may have given birth to Tywin Lannister, but he's obviously not responsible for the Red Wedding, despite being responsible for the existence of one of the chief architects of it.  Tywin Lannister means for the Red Wedding to occur, so he is responsible.  The various Frey participants are willing conspirators in it, so they're responsible.  Roslin Frey, despite the crucial role she plays, is not responsible.

[TMIFairy]

55 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

Right... but in that case, any action of any character in the books causes the Red Wedding.  Lysa's affair with Petyr 20 years back is relevant, because without it, she doesn't poison Jon Arryn, so Ned doesn't become Hand, so he isn't executed, so Robb doesn't go to war, so no Red Wedding.

Yup. Out of the entire chain of events it was "the war going badly for Robb" which led to Tywin and Walder to conceiving and executing the Red Wedding.

[Traverys]

On 7/14/2017 at 8:09 AM, DarkBastard said:

Keep reading, there is more in the rest of the books!

Complete speculation on my part:

I've always thought that Ned probably never (as a father) instilled in Robb the virtue of monogamy.  Regardless of Jon's parentage, it would be difficult, even hypocritical in Ned's eyes...to discuss it with his son.  Ned was shown to have immediately quashed any discussion about Jon's mother, and chose to never speak of it.  For all the guidance Robb received about being a Lord, honor, and duty...I bet the loyalty of marriage was glossed over, if mentioned at all by Ned.  

This might leave the children only to their own speculation...that their father married their mother out of duty but followed his heart once with some unknown woman in the south.  A child doesn't want to picture their father with a whore; in the absence of the truth they would likely fill it with passion and romance.  Did Robb think he found the same?  Did he follow it instead of marrying the Frey girl out of duty?  In his mind, did that correct the "mistake" made by his father?  

Like a Greek tragedy, the decisions and circumstances of his their youth created a situation that would ultimately lead to his their downfall. 

Maybe.  That's just the shit that runs through my head when I'm reading!

I think it's actually quite the opposite... Robb Stark knew that the only time his father ever brought dishonor on himself was (allegedly) fathering a bastard. If he didn't learn it from his father, her certainly would have learned it from Catelyn, who made it no secret that she did not like Jon Snow being raised with her children. After sleeping with Jeyne Westerling in a moment of weakness, he was most concerned with her honor and (I would argue) the horror of thinking he fathered a bastard on her.

It, as you say, plays out like a greek tragedy (just like Catelyn's overall arc) in that he tries to do the right thing based on his parents values and teachings they passed on to him. And it is these things that ultimately add House Frey into the conspiracy against him (joining the Boltons and eventually the Westerlings/Spicers) which leads to his downfall.

 

To the OP, I think it's too simplistic to say one single event caused the Red Wedding. People often base an accusation on a single event as to why the North loses the war, but really it's an intersection of things. We have (1) Robb breaking holy vows with prickly Lord Frey, trusting Theon Greyjoy, failing to address/mend/deter toxic morale in his army (Karstarks), etc. (2) Edmure taking liberal interpretation of battle commands for his own personal glory, (3) Catelyn releasing their most valuable hostage in exchange for her daughters, (4) the Riverlands Lords more concerned with their own castles and lands than the overall war (unlike the Northerners who left it all behind to fight), (5) Lord Bolton using his sizeable portion of the Northern army to be as opportunistic as possible with no scruples concerning loyalty, (6) Lady Lysa Arryn shirking family duty and loyalty in favor of shortsighted concern regarding the safety of her and Sweetrobin, (6) more players I'm probably not even thinking of.

Mix them all together, bring to a boil, lower to a simmer, continue stirring, and we have the makings of Downfall Stew.

[The Bard of Banefort]

4 minutes ago, Traverys said:

I think it's actually quite the opposite... Robb Stark knew that the only time his father ever brought dishonor on himself was (allegedly) fathering a bastard. If he didn't learn it from his father, her certainly would have learned it from Catelyn, who made it no secret that she did not like Jon Snow being raised with her children. After sleeping with Jeyne Westerling in a moment of weakness, he was most concerned with her honor and (I would argue) the horror of thinking he fathered a bastard on her.

It, as you say, plays out like a greek tragedy (just like Catelyn's overall arc) in that he tries to do the right thing based on his parents values and teachings they passed on to him. And it is these things that ultimately add House Frey into the conspiracy against him (joining the Boltons and eventually the Westerlings/Spicers) which leads to his downfall.

 

To the OP, I think it's too simplistic to say one single event caused the Red Wedding. People often base an accusation on a single event as to why the North loses the war, but really it's an intersection of things. We have (1) Robb breaking holy vows with prickly Lord Frey, trusting Theon Greyjoy, failing to address/mend/deter toxic morale in his army (Karstarks), etc. (2) Edmure taking liberal interpretation of battle commands for his own personal glory, (3) Catelyn releasing their most valuable hostage in exchange for her daughters, (4) the Riverlands Lords more concerned with their own castles and lands than the overall war (unlike the Northerners who left it all behind to fight), (5) Lord Bolton using his sizeable portion of the Northern army to be as opportunistic as possible with no scruples concerning loyalty, (6) Lady Lysa Arryn shirking family duty and loyalty in favor of shortsighted concern regarding the safety of her and Sweetrobin, (6) more players I'm probably not even thinking of.

Mix them all together, bring to a boil, lower to a simmer, continue stirring, and we have the makings of Downfall Stew.

I agree with all of this. I also think Lysa refrained from aiding Robb because of her long-stewing bitterness towards her sister. In Lysa's eyes, Cat got everything she wanted--Petyr's affection, a marriage to a man her own age, several healthy children, the respect of many of her peers. We see firsthand just how deep Lysa's resentment goes in ASOS when she tries to kill Sansa and sporadically conflates her with her mother. Cat begging her to reconcile with Hoster, the father she loathes for tricking her into an abortion, probably didn't help matters either. So while I do think she was trying to protect her son and herself, I think there was also a much more pernicious motivation for Lysa to refuse Robb's cause laying beneath the surface. 

[Traverys]

2 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

I agree with all of this. I also think Lysa refrained from aiding Robb because of her long-stewing bitterness towards her sister. In Lysa's eyes, Cat got everything she wanted--Petyr's affection, a marriage to a man her own age, several healthy children, the respect of many of her peers. We see firsthand just how deep Lysa's resentment goes in ASOS when she tries to kill Sansa and sporadically conflates her with her mother. Cat begging her to reconcile with Hoster, the father she loathes for tricking her into an abortion, probably didn't help matters either. So while I do think she was trying to protect her son and herself, I think there was also a much more pernicious motivation for Lysa to refuse Robb's cause laying beneath the surface. 

Ooo, and the plot thickens. Never thought about it this way. Is there ever really any genuine affection coming from Lysa towards Catelyn during their interactions in book one? Looking at the events at the Eyrie in a new light, it seems like Lysa was flaunting her power to Cat the entire time. As you pointed out, Cat had the "winning life" that Lysa could never make for herself. However, as regent to Sweetrobin, she suddenly had more power than most women in Westeros can ever hope to achieve... Including Cat.

Not only that, she also had pulled Cat and the Starks into a conspiracy she helped create, so she had officially turned her sister (at least in her eyes) into a pawn. That's not something you do to people you love, especially when the conspiracy could only lead to one pernicious outcome.

It actually is quite sad, that two siblings that were once close could grow so far apart. Well... Lysa's story in general is a tragedy.

[Graydon Hicks]

3 minutes ago, Traverys said:

Ooo, and the plot thickens. Never thought about it this way. Is there ever really any genuine affection coming from Lysa towards Catelyn during their interactions in book one? Looking at the events at the Eyrie in a new light, it seems like Lysa was flaunting her power to Cat the entire time. As you pointed out, Cat had the "winning life" that Lysa could never make for herself. However, as regent to Sweetrobin, she suddenly had more power than most women in Westeros can ever hope to achieve... Including Cat.

Not only that, she also had pulled Cat and the Starks into a conspiracy she helped create, so she had officially turned her sister (at least in her eyes) into a pawn. That's not something you do to people you love, especially when the conspiracy is pernicious and could only lead to one outcome.

It actually is quite sad, that two siblings that were once close could grow so far apart. Well... Lysa's story in general is a tragedy.

i agree, i never looked at the vale side of things, so i find this interpretation of lysa's actions a very reasonable one. 

i also hold that i believe Walder Frey would have betrayed Robb regardless if robb had married roslin or not. if he had, then it seems likely to me that the freys would have treated robb the same way they treated edmure in canon, hold him prisoner after he consummated the marriage, then hand him over to the lannisters. freys do seem to have a history of looking out for their own asses rather than heeding calls to loyalty. the idea of tywin using them to eliminate robb and his army before they made it north of the neck also seems reasonable.

i also like to point out that of all the living house of the north, the boltons have the bloodiest history with the starks. they held out the longest of the all the rivals kings during the thousand or so years that the starks used to unify the north. and they still rebelled against the starks at least once during the time since. i dont think the boltons ever really forgot how they used to flay stark kings of winter alive, and hang their skins from the walls of the dreadfort. i wouldnt be surprised to find that roose and much of his family have long dreamed of the day that the red kings could finally displace the kings of winter.

[The Bard of Banefort]

4 hours ago, Traverys said:

Ooo, and the plot thickens. Never thought about it this way. Is there ever really any genuine affection coming from Lysa towards Catelyn during their interactions in book one? Looking at the events at the Eyrie in a new light, it seems like Lysa was flaunting her power to Cat the entire time. As you pointed out, Cat had the "winning life" that Lysa could never make for herself. However, as regent to Sweetrobin, she suddenly had more power than most women in Westeros can ever hope to achieve... Including Cat.

Not only that, she also had pulled Cat and the Starks into a conspiracy she helped create, so she had officially turned her sister (at least in her eyes) into a pawn. That's not something you do to people you love, especially when the conspiracy could only lead to one pernicious outcome.

It actually is quite sad, that two siblings that were once close could grow so far apart. Well... Lysa's story in general is a tragedy.

Lysa was remarkably unmoved by Cat's death when we saw her again at the end of ASOS. Her only mentions of her sister were her bragging about how she looked more beautiful than Cat on their wedding day, and during her attempted-murder of Sansa, she paints Cat as a selfish, wanton bitch. Even when she got teary-eyed at one point, her next words ("we are women alone now") makes me think it was less about her sister's death and more about her feeling frightened for herself and Robert.

Part of me thinks George grew up watching The Brady Bunch and wanted to write a medieval version of Jan 

[DarkBastard]

10 hours ago, Traverys said:

I think it's actually quite the opposite... Robb Stark knew that the only time his father ever brought dishonor on himself was (allegedly) fathering a bastard. If he didn't learn it from his father, her certainly would have learned it from Catelyn, who made it no secret that she did not like Jon Snow being raised with her children. After sleeping with Jeyne Westerling in a moment of weakness, he was most concerned with her honor and (I would argue) the horror of thinking he fathered a bastard on her.

It, as you say, plays out like a greek tragedy (just like Catelyn's overall arc) in that he tries to do the right thing based on his parents values and teachings they passed on to him. And it is these things that ultimately add House Frey into the conspiracy against him (joining the Boltons and eventually the Westerlings/Spicers) which leads to his downfall.

So you think Catelyn openly talked to her children about their father's betrayal?  This story isn't taking place in the United States in 2017, that would not have happened, particularly not in the North.

And you misunderstood my point, partly my fault for using the word "monogamy".  Staying true to his vows instead of being true to his heart.  That would not have come up in conversation between Ned and his children.  Hell, he wouldn't even talk to John about who his mother was...which he could have made up easily...could he really have discussions about the semantics of the situation that led to his supposed "dishonor"?  No.  

Ned was not fond of games or lies, and both would be required if he had to talk about this issue, so he left it unsaid.  Of course his kids knew it was a dishonor to their mother, and saw her hostility toward Jon.  Just as you and I both concluded, his kids may try to prevent the same dishonor by following their heart...which (in this world) is the wrong answer.  They should follow their vow.  Robb should have followed his vow.

Maybe you missed this line:

Quote

 Did Robb think he found the same?  Did he follow it instead of marrying the Frey girl out of duty?  In his mind, did that correct the "mistake" made by his father?  

There are certainly more factors involved, but this was the start of his downfall.

[John Suburbs]

Sorry folks, but I take issue with this notion that Robb sleeping with Jeyne was just stupidity on his part or a moment of weakness or bad judgement. He was drugged, and probably Jeyne as well. Sybelle Spicer, the granddaughter of Maggie the Frog, who used to entertain the citizens of King's Landing telling fortunes and selling love potions, gave them a potion that made them think they were in love with each other. That, plus the milk of the poppy clouding his mind, led to the tryst, which led to the marriage, which led to the RW.

So maybe you can blame Robb for deciding to put his honor above his kingdom, but not for the act that got him to that point. He was drugged and seduced.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

The events of AGoT, ACoK and ASoS.

[Livesundersink]

On 20/07/2017 at 4:05 PM, The Bard of Banefort said:

I agree with all of this. I also think Lysa refrained from aiding Robb because of her long-stewing bitterness towards her sister. In Lysa's eyes, Cat got everything she wanted--Petyr's affection, a marriage to a man her own age, several healthy children, the respect of many of her peers. We see firsthand just how deep Lysa's resentment goes in ASOS when she tries to kill Sansa and sporadically conflates her with her mother. Cat begging her to reconcile with Hoster, the father she loathes for tricking her into an abortion, probably didn't help matters either. So while I do think she was trying to protect her son and herself, I think there was also a much more pernicious motivation for Lysa to refuse Robb's cause laying beneath the surface. 

 

On 20/07/2017 at 6:51 PM, Traverys said:

Ooo, and the plot thickens. Never thought about it this way. Is there ever really any genuine affection coming from Lysa towards Catelyn during their interactions in book one? Looking at the events at the Eyrie in a new light, it seems like Lysa was flaunting her power to Cat the entire time. As you pointed out, Cat had the "winning life" that Lysa could never make for herself. However, as regent to Sweetrobin, she suddenly had more power than most women in Westeros can ever hope to achieve... Including Cat.

Not only that, she also had pulled Cat and the Starks into a conspiracy she helped create, so she had officially turned her sister (at least in her eyes) into a pawn. That's not something you do to people you love, especially when the conspiracy could only lead to one pernicious outcome.

It actually is quite sad, that two siblings that were once close could grow so far apart. Well... Lysa's story in general is a tragedy.

THIS, it makes me feel sad for Lysa because when everything was said and done all she was in the end was a tool for others to further their own ambitions. Another point of contention between Cat and Lysa was that initially Lysa was being promised to Jaime, he recalls being sent to Riverrun and being seated next to Lysa and then ignoring her and then is outright rejected when Jaime joins the kingsguard. She is then married off to Jon Arryn simply because he needs an heir and at that time Lysa was still believed to be fertile.