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Why did Varys warn Aerys II of the attempt to call a great council?


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12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The fact that Aerys had so many loyalists rallying to his side in the beginning of the actual rebellion - with Rhaegar being out of the picture or perhaps even being branded a traitor by his father, too, at this stage - makes it very clear that there was a very good chance that half the Realm or more would have backed Aerys against Rhaegar's attempted coup had he gone along with the covert Great Council idea.

In that sense, Aerys attending the tourney helped to prevent 'the Rhaegar rebellion' people at court were expecting. At least until the false interpretation of the crowning of Lyanna led to another dangerous situation that eventually exploded, but I'm pretty sure it is going to turn out to be Aerys' suspicions of Rhaegar that caused Robert's Rebellion. The Starks will turn out to be executed because Aerys thought they were Rhaegar's accomplices, I'm pretty sure of that.

Aerys was trying to crush Rhaegar's Rebellion when he caused Robert's Rebellion.

I'm not sure how much support Aerys would have gotten in that case. I think most of his personal support was from Crownlanders. I think most of the realm tolerated Aerys because they thought Rhaegar would rule one day. 

I do think Rhaegar is responsible for turning Aerys against House Stark, whether that was inadvertant or intentional.

I don't think Lyanna was on Rhaegar's radar before Harrenhal, and I don't think Rickard and House Stark were on Aerys's radar in any negative sense until Rhaegar crowned Lyanna.

The World Book only tells us how Aerys's supporters commented, but not whether he agreed. But considering his distrust of Rhaegar going back at least five years, I absolutely think Aerys agreed with his lickspittles, and took Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna as a move against him.

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1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I'm not sure how much support Aerys would have gotten in that case. I think most of his personal support was from Crownlanders. I think most of the realm tolerated Aerys because they thought Rhaegar would rule one day. 

But how is it then that the parts of the Vale and the Stormlands stand with him during the Rebellion? And the entire Reach, too, not to mention Aerys' people from the Riverlands, the Darrys foremost among them (the Whents and Mootons may have been more Rhaegar men).

Most of that happened before Rhaegar returned to court. Assuming Mace and his lords as well as all the other Targaryen loyalists fighting for Aerys didn't know where Rhaegar was and that he would eventually come back we have to interpret this as those lords being personally loyal to Aerys.

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I do think Rhaegar is responsible for turning Aerys against House Stark, whether that was inadvertant or intentional.

I don't think Lyanna was on Rhaegar's radar before Harrenhal, and I don't think Rickard and House Stark were on Aerys's radar in any negative sense until Rhaegar crowned Lyanna.

I assume Rickard was actually sort of a friend of Aerys'. He visited with him early on and may also have been with the gang on the Stepstones. He seems to be have been old enough to have gone along. Or not, difficult to say. If not, then he still wanted to be in Aerys' good graces in the early years after his takeover.

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

The World Book only tells us how Aerys's supporters commented, but not whether he agreed. But considering his distrust of Rhaegar going back at least five years, I absolutely think Aerys agreed with his lickspittles, and took Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna as a move against him.

The crowning made the Starks potential traitors in Aerys' eyes. Rhaegar was a potential traitor for an even longer time. I doubt that Aerys' really hated his son, it would have been his paranoia gnawing at him, thinking that his prodigal son was trying to steal his crown before the time. He would have been proud of him - which I think he very much was, the little tidbit about him cheering Rhaegar on at the Lannisport tourney of 276 AC, shortly before Duskendale, seems to prove that - but that soured after Duskendale. 

If he *really* thought Rhaegar was after him in his heart he would have burned him alive. There is little doubt about that.

But the abduction of Lyanna was 'proof' that this talk about the Rhaegar-Stark conspiracy was true. How could it not be? And that's the reason why Brandon, his companions, Rickard, Ned, and even Robert had to die. They were all Rhaegar's accomplices or potential accomplices. Aerys couldn't have been as stupid as kill various great lords of the Realm - and their heirs - over a rather trivial issue (threats made against his heir whom he suspected of treason). But he would have done it if he thought he was putting down rebels and traitors, if he thought he was stopping a rebellion by doing that.

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1 hour ago, bent branch said:

I don't see how what you're saying is any different than what I am saying. The novels don't actually say that Rhaegar was attempting to convene a Great Council. This is just something the fandom has decided since seeing that Great Councils can be called.

No, it is Yandel who putting forth the idea that Rhaegar intended to assemble 'an informal Great Council' at Harrenhal.

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46 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

No, it is Yandel who putting forth the idea that Rhaegar intended to assemble 'an informal Great Council' at Harrenhal.

You're right. Yandel said it based on gossip he got from Pycelle. The readers believe it because they don't look at Aerys actions, which indicate that Aerys trusted Rhaegar and distrusted Tywin. This is how GRRM manages to "surprise" people. They take information from dodgy sources and believe it.

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53 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

No, it is Yandel who putting forth the idea that Rhaegar intended to assemble 'an informal Great Council' at Harrenhal.

According to Jaime in AFFC, Rhaegar intended to call a council and make changes, and had meant to do it long ago.

According to Barristan in ADWD, Aerys became convinced that Rhaegar arranged Harrenhal as a cover to meet with as many great lords as possible and depose Aerys.

I take that to most likely mean that Rhaegar had intended to try to gather support to restrict his father and assume rule, and that Aerys believed that was what Rhaegar intended.

I think informal great council is along the lines of how many readers interpreted Jaime's and Barristan's memories of Rhaegar and Aerys on the matter.

I suspect Aerys went back and forth on Rhaegar at times. I don't think he hated him, but I think he came to conflate Rhaegar and Tywin as an alliance against him. 

And I suspect Aerys might have had some experience in the area of prematurely seizing the throne from one's king father, and to have been doing some projecting.

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1 minute ago, bent branch said:

You're right. Yandel said it based on gossip he got from Pycelle. The readers believe it because they don't look at Aerys actions, which indicate that Aerys trusted Rhaegar and distrusted Tywin. This is how GRRM manages to "surprise" people. They take information from dodgy sources and believe it.

That isn't was he says. He says that there were a lot of speculations about the purpose of the tourney, and the informal Great Council idea as well as the idea that Rhaegar financed the tourney is the likeliest option. Nowhere does he say he assumes this on information that goes back to Pycelle (alone). He generally says that Pycelle is his main source on Aerys' reign but nowhere does he state that this is also the case for the Year of the False Spring section.

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2 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That isn't was he says. He says that there were a lot of speculations about the purpose of the tourney, and the informal Great Council idea as well as the idea that Rhaegar financed the tourney is the likeliest option. Nowhere does he say he assumes this on information that goes back to Pycelle (alone). He generally says that Pycelle is his main source on Aerys' reign but nowhere does he state that this is also the case for the Year of the False Spring section.

Why do you think he had a different source for that section? Did not the Year of the False Spring happen in Aerys reign? If you believe that Yandel used another source, then cite it. Don't just use vague "other" sources, cite them. If you can't, then you're just passing on gossip.

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1 minute ago, bent branch said:

Why do you think he had a different source for that section? Did not the Year of the False Spring happen in Aerys reign? If you believe that Yandel used another source, then cite it. Don't just use vague "other" sources, cite them. If you can't, then you're just passing on gossip.

If Yandel said he had only Pycelle as source for the reign of Aerys you would have a case here. But he doesn't say that. And Yandel doesn't give any impression that he simply parrots Pycelle's words as gospel here. He even cites those evil rumors about Joanna Lannister and then uses Pycelle to dismiss those rumors (perhaps wrongly) but the important point is that he cites them at all.

We have no reason to believe that Pycelle even shares the Rhaegar-Harrenhal-theory. That could be the case but it doesn't have to be the case.

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I think it is plausible Rickard met them in and fought in the War of the Ninepenny Kings. He seems likely to be similar age to Steffon, Tywin, and Aerys, or not much older if not. And he was either a great lord or heir of one, just like the three of them. I definitely picture Lord Rickard having a positive experience with King Aerys in KL in 264, and thus far have seen no reason why that would have changed until Harrenhal and the aftermath.

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7 minutes ago, bent branch said:

Why do you think he had a different source for that section? Did not the Year of the False Spring happen in Aerys reign? If you believe that Yandel used another source, then cite it. Don't just use vague "other" sources, cite them. If you can't, then you're just passing on gossip.

Yandel is a maester, not just some Pycelle stooge. Pycelle is no doubt a great though biased source of information from the court at that time. But Yandel has the resources of the Citadel and all the maesters that report to it from every house in Westeros. Even if Pycelle had an influence on its editing, it would be highly unlikely for there to be just one source utilized. 

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13 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Yandel is a maester, not just some Pycelle stooge. Pycelle is no doubt a great though biased source of information from the court at that time. But Yandel has the resources of the Citadel and all the maesters that report to it from every house in Westeros. Even if Pycelle had an influence on its editing, it would be highly unlikely for there to be just one source utilized. 

And that system works in the other direction. Pycelle feeds gossip into the Citadel that then spreads it through the household maesters. Lady Dustin said the maesters had something they were whispering in their lord's ear. Is this how the gossip of Aerys "madness" was spread? Most likely since most of the lords didn't interact with Aerys directly. As you have said yourself, it seemed that Rickard's interaction with Aerys was fine when they met face to face. Indeed, the maesters are mediating most of the communication between these different regions. If the maesters weren't spreading the gossip, then most lords wouldn't have any way of knowing what was going on at court. Think about it.

ETA:  It ALL comes back to Pycelle in one way or another.

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Two options.

Assuming that he was planning to supplant the Targaryens even back then, he might have considered Rhaegar ascendant to be much harder to depose than Aerys and anyway feeding Aerys mistrust of Rhaegar would have kept the realm unstable.

Or assuming that he had no such intentions then, he simply fed Aerys's  paranoia, which pretty much was his job description.

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9 hours ago, bent branch said:

And that system works in the other direction. Pycelle feeds gossip into the Citadel that then spreads it through the household maesters. Lady Dustin said the maesters had something they were whispering in their lord's ear. Is this how the gossip of Aerys "madness" was spread? Most likely since most of the lords didn't interact with Aerys directly. As you have said yourself, it seemed that Rickard's interaction with Aerys was fine when they met face to face. Indeed, the maesters are mediating most of the communication between these different regions. If the maesters weren't spreading the gossip, then most lords wouldn't have any way of knowing what was going on at court. Think about it.

ETA:  It ALL comes back to Pycelle in one way or another.

It is certainly possible that Pycelle fed information, true or not, back to the Citadel which made its way to the maesters across Westeros, but I don't think knowledge of Aerys's madness was dependant on Pycelle. The Defiance in Duskendale and aftermath in 277 were known to the realm. That he didn't leave the Red Keep for five years after would have been known. He was apparently known from Dorne to the Wall as the Mad King by 280. I am sure the Citadel and maesters contributed, but I don't see Pycelle as somehow being central to that.

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On 7/17/2017 at 4:15 PM, TMIFairy said:

One theory is that Varys' claim to serve "peace" and the "realm" is utter bullshit. He actually is after the same thing that Baelish is - chaos. Unrest. Destruction of the realm.

No, it's pretty clear that Varys' intentions and motivations are honest, as he describes them.  He wants his "perfect prince" on the throne, because he thinks that is what is best for the people of Westeros.  And he's willing to let tens of thousands die to get it.  This is a major difference between him and Littlefinger.  Varys has a ostensibly selfless goal in mind - a more just world, where perhaps kids like himself are less likely to be genitally mutilated, or where the smallfolk have more protection against the predation of the powerful.

Baelish wants chaos so he can become wealthier and more powerful. There's a major difference there.

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10 hours ago, bent branch said:

Pycelle feeds gossip into the Citadel that then spreads it through the household maesters. Lady Dustin said the maesters had something they were whispering in their lord's ear. Is this how the gossip of Aerys "madness" was spread?

It’s not just from second hand sources that we hear that Aerys was mad. Barristan and Jaime both thought him mad, and they were about as close witnesses as it gets, and Barristan is about as reliable a witness as it gets.

Also, in AWOIAF Aerys is witnessed as acting crazy and paranoid at the Harrenhal tourney, with hundreds of people watching on. Pycelle would not have been the only witness to that, Yandal reports these events as if they were widespread and common knowledge.

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Jaime suggests that Varys also aimed to preserve Aerys and the Targaryens when he advised him not to open the gates to Tywin. That suggests, for whatever reason, that Varys was motivated by a desire to keep Aerys on the throne. The motivation that Aerys remaining in power would be more destabilising does not work for me. Whatever havoc Aerys could have wreaked he already had at that point – the realm was plunged into civil war, Rhaegar was dead...

At that stage, in my opinion, the only reason you would fight to preserve Aerys’s throne is actual loyalty. If you wanted to destabilise the kingdoms, removing the one family that had united the 7K from power would surely be the way to go?

This is one of the reasons why I remain unconvinced by the Blackfyre  theory – Varys’s actions don’t quite add up as neatly as some proponents of that theory suggest. That he is loyal to the Targaryen dynasty adds up much more.

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1 hour ago, cpg2016 said:

No, it's pretty clear that Varys' intentions and motivations are honest, as he describes them.  He wants his "perfect prince" on the throne, because he thinks that is what is best for the people of Westeros.  And he's willing to let tens of thousands die to get it.

Baelish wants chaos so he can become wealthier and more powerful. There's a major difference there.

Not to the victims.

Maybe Baelish, once he is at the top, will make it a More Just World for the Little People?

In my book both Varys and LF as bad, the same sort of mass murderers ...

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14 minutes ago, TMIFairy said:

Not to the victims.

Maybe Baelish, once he is at the top, will make it a More Just World for the Little People?

In my book both Varys and LF as bad, the same sort of mass murderers ...

You honestly don't believe intentions matter?  Fine, to the person dying in the mud, you might curse them out equally, but that doesn't make them equally vile.

Varys wants to make a better world for everyone, Littlefinger wants a better world for Littlefinger.  That kind of predatory attitude is exactly what Varys is trying to upend.

And yeah, maybe Petyr will.  We don't know.  All we know is he wants power for it's own sake, mainly so he can stick it to the haughty nobles he grew up with like Hoster Tully and Brandon Stark.  We know Varys wants to put a prince on the throne who is kind and understands the plight of the smallfolk.  Whether you agree or not, most people throughout history would consider Varys a better person and a better cause than Littlefinger.  The sociopaths agree with you.

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Heinrich Himmler or Che Guevara - no difference. Same butchers..

Maybe I'm a sociopath, but you are simply an apologist of the "right" sort of mass murderer. The sort of person who whitewashed Stalin or Hitler because of their "good intentions".

Without Varys the Seven Kingdoms would had stumbled along with less bloodshed and suffering.

 

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