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What if Roberts' Rebellion failed??


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15 hours ago, Graydon Hicks said:

well, he might have been hiding lyanna to keep her safe from aerys.

He wasn't hiding her, he was holding her prisoner.  He could have "hid" her anywhere, essentially.  He takes her all the way to the Dornish Marches because he's trying to isolate her and remove her from anyone who might know or help her.  Rhaegar is a kidnapper and a rapist; he thinks he's doing it to save the world (to get the PTWP), so he thinks the ends justify any means, but he's wrong and he's an bad man.

15 hours ago, Graydon Hicks said:

with him as the figure head for the army, at was his fury at the rhaegar that seemed to driving force for his forces

No, what's driving the rebels is the fact that Aerys has called for the heads of Robert and Eddard after brutally murdering Rickard and Brandon.  Given how uninvolved they were in anything, and how batshit insane Aerys is, Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully realize that their connections to the Starks make them obvious next targets, and the whole point of their alliance is protect against just this kind of shit.

 

15 hours ago, Graydon Hicks said:

tywin is a big question. with his behavior and ambition, would he have sided with rhaegar, whether or not he joined the rebels after killing robert, or would he have headed straight for kingslanding to take it before rhaegar arrived? that would depend on if he wanted to gamble on the chance to place his own family on the throne.

He can't place his family on the throne.  What he wants is Cersei to be queen and his grandkids to be kings.  There is a theory that Tywin engineered Duskendale in the hopes Lord Darklyn would kill Aerys, leaving Rhaegar on the throne, and giving him another shot at wedding Cersei and Rhaegar.

My guess is that Tywin would have told Rhaegar that he had Lannister support if he accepted the marriage.  Which would have given Rhaegar a decisive advantage in terms of battle or a Great Council.

15 hours ago, Graydon Hicks said:

depending on that would determine whether elia and the children live. and how quickly rhaegar could move after the battle would determine whether or not lyanna survived

Lyanna dies in childbirth.  She's going down either way, which suits Rhaegar just fine.  He gets his third head of the dragon, and no sticky complications from his rape victim wandering around stirring up sympathy.

15 hours ago, Graydon Hicks said:

rhaegar might, id even say likely, pardon eddard, maybe jon arryn. hoster, i dont know. what ive read about his actions during the rebellion seem to indicate his involvement being more political than ned, jon and robert. they seem to be personal, but hosters seem to be about taking advantage of the situation to improve his houses station. not sure. how tywin is treated would be based on whether or not he decided to take the throne for himself while everyone else was fighting at the trident.

It depends. The fact that Rhaegar fights for Aerys in the first place doesn't bode well for any of the rebels.  My guess is Ned is sent to the Wall and Benjen is made Lord of Winterfell; Robert probably loses his head because he crowned himself, with Stannis getting the Baratheon seat.  Jon Arryn is pardoned but weakened, with one of his loyalist bannermen given significant authority, and made Warden of the East.  Hoster Tully.... might lose his overlordship of the Riverlands.  If not, he certainly sees one of his rivals (maybe the Freys?) raised up with royal favor.

And again, Tywin cannot take the throne, nor can anyone from his family.  It's a Targaryen throne, which is why Robert is acclaimed in the first place.

15 hours ago, Graydon Hicks said:

for how jon s. is treated would be based on whether or not lyanna survived. if she did, i can see her and jon living in the red keep with rhaegar.

Jon is going to live in the Red Keep.  Lyanna likely is sent back North, or, more likely, quietly assassinated.  Let us be clear about this; we have zero evidence that Rhaegar gives two shits about Lyanna.  He cares about his prophecy.  Once he gets his prince, he's done with her.

No matter what, Aerys is losing his throne.  The entire reason for Robert's Rebellion is because the throne is slaughtering it's vassals without a semblance of a fair trial.  The loyalists fight for Aerys (a) because GRRM needs them to (honestly, it's unbelievable anyone fights on Aerys' behalf) and (b) the Dornish want to keep their privileged political position, and the Tyrells want to prove themselves as the most loyal vassals, and thereby tighten their grip on the Reach, which is shaky.  But even if Rhaegar wins at the Trident, it should be obvious that Aerys is unfit to continue on the throne.  My guess is Rhaegar is made Regent and Aerys declared mentally unfit to rule.  Mace Tyrell probably becomes Hand (or one of his vassals).

 

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why does everyone want to send ned to the wall? if they are willing to pardon arryn, they are willing to pardon ned. ned had more reason than anyone to go to war, it was his father and brother that were killed. and yet he behaved with honor during that war, and after he stilled referred to rhaegar with respect, not the frothing hate that robert shows. i dont think ned would be punished.

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Dany is never chased into exile and never even gets the dragon eggs, let alone hatches them.

Jon Waters never gets his direwolf and probably never even gets to the wall. 

Stannis never has cause to believe he is the rightful king and thus never attempts to "save the kingdom to win the throne" and without his intervention Mance Rayder overwhelms the watch, the wall, and much of the north.

Benjen Stark never finds all that cool and important shit he left at the fist of the first men because he never gets to join the watch because he's the last Stark in Winterfell.

Bran Stark The all-important Greenseer is never even born.

White Walkers destroy everyone.

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Graydon Hicks said:

why does everyone want to send ned to the wall? if they are willing to pardon arryn, they are willing to pardon ned. ned had more reason than anyone to go to war, it was his father and brother that were killed. and yet he behaved with honor during that war, and after he stilled referred to rhaegar with respect, not the frothing hate that robert shows. i dont think ned would be punished.

We want him to get really ripped in prison. He'd have all sorts of free time. Finally got his bench press over 100 kilo

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how again are bastards named? is it where they are born, or is it based on the homelands of one of the parents?

and if rhaegar became king, why wouldn't he pay more attention to the wall? he has exchanged correspondence with aemon, so i think he would pay attention to what missives come from the wall. maybe he tries harder than previous kings to support the wall, forces his lords to send their criminals, or convinces more of the soldiery and knights to go. remember that robert was downright negligent when it came to running the realm. he left everything to his hands while he partied his way into an early grave. i get the impression that rhaegar was a much more observant, thoughtful man. he would likely take a stronger position in the actual administration of the realm. actually be at all the small council meetings.

i can see bran still being born, but maybe not awakening to being a greenseer.

when did mance join the wildings? before or after the rebellion? cause maybe if its after, and we have a king who actually supports the nights watch, he never has to desert.

i agree with the benjen never finds the stuff at the fist, cause he would have need to go , but maybe he does? if lyanna lived, i can see him not going, but if she still died, maybe he still goes.

the direwolf would likely still come south, for jon getting ghost, hmm. depends on what rhaegfar does with him. if he kept jon at the capital, then he gets a wolf only if the starks send him one. if jon was sent to winterfellt to foster, which is also likely, especially if rhaegar was forced to remarry, and we know who that would be, then he still gets ghost.

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5 minutes ago, Graydon Hicks said:

how again are bastards named? is it where they are born, or is it based on the homelands of one of the parents?

and if rhaegar became king, why wouldn't he pay more attention to the wall? he has exchanged correspondence with aemon, so i think he would pay attention to what missives come from the wall. maybe he tries harder than previous kings to support the wall, forces his lords to send their criminals, or convinces more of the soldiery and knights to go. remember that robert was downright negligent when it came to running the realm. he left everything to his hands while he partied his way into an early grave. i get the impression that rhaegar was a much more observant, thoughtful man. he would likely take a stronger position in the actual administration of the realm. actually be at all the small council meetings.

i can see bran still being born, but maybe not awakening to being a greenseer.

when did mance join the wildings? before or after the rebellion? cause maybe if its after, and we have a king who actually supports the nights watch, he never has to desert.

i agree with the benjen never finds the stuff at the fist, cause he would have need to go , but maybe he does? if lyanna lived, i can see him not going, but if she still died, maybe he still goes.

the direwolf would likely still come south, for jon getting ghost, hmm. depends on what rhaegfar does with him. if he kept jon at the capital, then he gets a wolf only if the starks send him one. if jon was sent to winterfellt to foster, which is also likely, especially if rhaegar was forced to remarry, and we know who that would be, then he still gets ghost.

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Bastardy#Surnames

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I think the the theory that Tywin and Rhaegar worked together to undermine Aerys is pretty interesting and solid. If that's the case. the rebels would be defeated and Rhaegar would become king, possibly with Tywin as his hand. 

 

The Tullys and Baratheons would probably be fucked as their lands lay open to an attack, but the Starks and Arryns have a good chance of surviving the Targaryen counterattack.

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It depends where it failed and how? Winning at the trident is one thing. Do the principals survive? Do they give up? Subduing the North and the Vale is quite another. There would be people on both regions who would fight to the bitter end.

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13 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

It depends where it failed and how? Winning at the trident is one thing. Do the principals survive? Do they give up? Subduing the North and the Vale is quite another. There would be people on both regions who would fight to the bitter end.

most vassal lords, whether or not they agree, still follow the lead of their lieges. their discontent would lead to a loss of support for the liege lords in the future, but they would still follow their orders in the beginning. i think that ned and arryn would survive, and keep their authority, but hoster might be a different story. and peace couldnt be reached until robert was killed. he was the figure head of the rebels, and his hate for rhaegar was one of the main driving forces. the prince wouldnt be able to sue for peace unless robert was out of the picture. but the other rebel lords are more in this to remove aerys, because aerys is the one to kill rickard and brandon stark, and order the deaths of robert and eddard. robert just tends to be very focused on his desires, and he desired lyanna. so in his mind rhaegar stole her, and it was a personal insult to him. that made rhaegar the object of his hate.

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Regardless of who won, Aerys would not have remained the king for long. Rhaegar had been planning for a while to usurp the throne from his father by way of a council. Robert would most likely be executed (or go out fighting till his last breath as he'd prefer), but there's a strong chance Rhaegar could have pardoned Ned, Jon Arryn and Hoster for their "crimes." In fact, if Robert had died of some wound prematurely, that scenario would be even more likely. Together they would form the council that overthrows Aerys. Tywin would also undoubtedly back this up.

Any lingering doubts that Ned may have would vanish once he meets with Lyanna.

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1 hour ago, Renly's Banana said:

Regardless of who won, Aerys would not have remained the king for long. Rhaegar had been planning for a while to usurp the throne from his father by way of a council. Robert would most likely be executed (or go out fighting till his last breath as he'd prefer), but there's a strong chance Rhaegar could have pardoned Ned, Jon Arryn and Hoster for their "crimes." In fact, if Robert had died of some wound prematurely, that scenario would be even more likely. Together they would form the council that overthrows Aerys. Tywin would also undoubtedly back this up.

Any lingering doubts that Ned may have would vanish once he meets with Lyanna.

highly agree.

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2 hours ago, Renly's Banana said:

 there's a strong chance Rhaegar could have pardoned Ned, Jon Arryn and Hoster for their "crimes." In fact, if Robert had died of some wound prematurely, that scenario would be even more likely. Together they would form the council that overthrows Aerys. Tywin would also undoubtedly back this up.

Any lingering doubts that Ned may have would vanish once he meets with Lyanna.

Unless Lyanna tells Ned about the Knights of the Kingsguard holding her down while Rheagar raped her.

Which is a scenario just as plausible as the one that Lyanna and Rheagar were come again Jonquil and Florian.

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3 hours ago, Graydon Hicks said:

most vassal lords, whether or not they agree, still follow the lead of their lieges. their discontent would lead to a loss of support for the liege lords in the future, but they would still follow their orders in the beginning. i think that ned and arryn would survive, and keep their authority, but hoster might be a different story. and peace couldnt be reached until robert was killed. he was the figure head of the rebels, and his hate for rhaegar was one of the main driving forces. the prince wouldnt be able to sue for peace unless robert was out of the picture. but the other rebel lords are more in this to remove aerys, because aerys is the one to kill rickard and brandon stark, and order the deaths of robert and eddard. robert just tends to be very focused on his desires, and he desired lyanna. so in his mind rhaegar stole her, and it was a personal insult to him. that made rhaegar the object of his hate.

The rebellion begun due to Jon Arryn. Who refused to execute his wards. Ned had lost his father, his brother and his sister had been kidnapped as far as he knew. Jon Arryn had lost his nephew and heir. Robert had lost a prospective bride. Jon and Ned were under sentence of death. They weren't fighting to make Robert king. They were fighting for revenge and their lives. I don't see Robert's death slowing them down.

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but their grievances were with aerys, not rhaegar. and i doubt either eddard or arryn would blame the son for the sins of the father. but robert was the leading figure. the one the others prompt up to head their army, the figure head they rallied to. and if rhaegar sued for peace, to gain their aid in removing his father, robert would be the one to fight that proposal the most. he hated rhaegar with a passion so intense it was almost holy, a hate that held robert in its grip even over a decade after he had killed rhaegar himself. 

robert would have been the primary obstacle to peace between rhaegar and the rebel lords. but with out robert, then the main hate for rhaegar himself dwindles.

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1 hour ago, Graydon Hicks said:

but their grievances were with aerys, not rhaegar. and i doubt either eddard or arryn would blame the son for the sins of the father. but robert was the leading figure. the one the others prompt up to head their army, the figure head they rallied to. and if rhaegar sued for peace, to gain their aid in removing his father, robert would be the one to fight that proposal the most. he hated rhaegar with a passion so intense it was almost holy, a hate that held robert in its grip even over a decade after he had killed rhaegar himself. 

robert would have been the primary obstacle to peace between rhaegar and the rebel lords. but with out robert, then the main hate for rhaegar himself dwindles.

Robert was their figurehead, but they were high lords themselves. You really think they would have fallen apart without Robert? They fought just fine without him. Robert was a fugitive and in hiding, when Ned rescued him. They could have chosen Stannis to take the throne after him.

As for not having grievances with Rhaegar who started this whole mess? Jon's nephew died with Brandon. And Lyanna was still missing. She may have gone with Rhaegar willingly or she may have not. Ned may have known about it or not. It still gives Ned a pretty good reason to be very pissed at Rhaegar.

What makes you think that Rhaegar was willing to make peace in the first place? Or able to? The others couldn't afford Aerys to remain alive and there is no indication that Rhaegar was willing to depose his father through military means.

I think you may have confused the attitudes of fifteen years past with those of that day. Ned did not hate a man fifteen years dead whose son he had raised. That does not mean he did not want him dead at the time. I know people tend to think of Ned as a sap, but this was the guy who was about to kill LF in the street.

Things had gone way too far for peaceful settlement. Things had gone way too far for a peaceful settlement.

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