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UK Politics - summer edition


Maltaran

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It's also worth bearing in mind that the NI/ROI border traffic is more dense, both geographically (shorter border) and in terms of populations (smaller on both sides than Norway/Sweden), which may have an effect on possible solutions.

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Brexit might have been a good occasion to consider the option of Irish reunification. But then, of course, May had to call for a snap election, lose her majority, and is now at the mercy of the DUP, so that option is off the table from the start. Sometimes, it feels like the Tories want the issues around Brexit to have as few solutions as possible, so they'd rather have no solution at all. And those are the same people who wanted to be voted into office for their "strong and stable leadership" and negotiation skills. The mind boggles.

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Irish Unification was one of those issues nobody wanted to touch with a barge pole. And the DUP is busy shooting down any proposal that would cut them off from the rest of the UK. Which includes the idea of treating the Ireland as a whole as part of the EU (thus the Irish sea as EU border).

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19 minutes ago, Notone said:

Irish Unification was one of those issues nobody wanted to touch with a barge pole. And the DUP is busy shooting down any proposal that would cut them off from the rest of the UK. Which includes the idea of treating the Ireland as a whole as part of the EU (thus the Irish sea as EU border).

That would at least be an almost realistic idea. Well, except for the DUP of course. But without the snap election, it could have been.

That the Ireland issue got so little discussion during the Brexit debate is almost criminal.

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36 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

It really wasn't, unless you were particularly keen on starting up the Troubles again.

Well, Brexit was quite the step towards bringing the Troubles back all by itself. Once the ROI/NI border goes up, it's not too unlikely to flare up once more.

 

So, yes, voting for Brexit was messing with peace in North Ireland. It's a pity that wasn't really even being discussed during the campaign. After all, there might be quite a few older Brexit voters who still remember those times and might have decided differently if they had been more aware of this consequence.

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Barnier Not enough progress to move on to the next stage of talks (future relations).

I know this is hardly surprising at this point.

Elsewhere, Corbyn said he voted remain and would do so again.

Not sure if trolling... I mean all his political actions thus far have been pointing towards a different vote. I recall a few fellow boarders here chiding me a bit over raging about Corbyn and his abysmal performance for the remain campaign, and they pointed out that Corbyn has always been a leaver at heart.

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Interesting article here from a Brexit supporter who paints a bleak picture of a post-Brexit world (with no deal), including a ten-year recession and "real" austerity (because we ain't seen nothing yet). He gets to the end of the article and questionably says he would still support Brexit even if this worst-case scenario unfolded, because "any change is better". This kind of switch of argument - from "things will clearly be better after we leave" to "this are going to be a shitstorm but it's worth it, somehow" - appears to be depressingly common now. One thing I'll say for Farage is that at least he has been consistent in saying that Brexit would mean that Britain will be worse off after Brexit but it's worth it (left unsaid: because he can fuck off to Germany until the worse blows over).

Meanwhile, and intriguingly under-reported so far, is the news that Britain and the EU have actually come up with a workable plan (faints from shock) for food quota imports from outside the EU. This arrangement appears reasonable, but the US, Canada, Argentina, Uruguay, New Zealand, Thailand and Brazil have shot it down, saying that existing arrangements will not be changed without their consent. I believe that means that under that arrangement food imports into the EU would continue as normal but into the UK would be hit by tariffs at WTO prices. And that's on the day the UK leaves the EU.

After the Bombardier fiasco, it's clear that we are not at the front of the queue in any way, shape or form for new economic arrangements with the United States, and that will leave us very much in the shit.

Meanwhile the Universal Credit roll-out appears to be continuing, despite the system still being years away from being workable and fit for purpose. Mind-boggling.

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Brexit might have been a good occasion to consider the option of Irish reunification. But then, of course, May had to call for a snap election, lose her majority, and is now at the mercy of the DUP, so that option is off the table from the start. Sometimes, it feels like the Tories want the issues around Brexit to have as few solutions as possible, so they'd rather have no solution at all. And those are the same people who wanted to be voted into office for their "strong and stable leadership" and negotiation skills. The mind boggles.

The majority of the population of Northern Ireland want to remain part of the UK. In order for this to change, Northern Ireland would have to either undergo a change in demographics (unlikely) or the current majority would have to be convinced that they would be better off in the Republic of Ireland. That argument may have held some weight during the Celtic Tiger days, but Britain's economy was also doing pretty well at that time, but during the financial crisis and since, Ireland's economy has generally peformed significantly worse than Britain's. If Britain's economy tanks post-Brexit (as increasingly seems likely) then that argument could be made again. That's why Sinn Fein has not been going hell for leather for a referendum right now (aside from not having enough power to pull it off), because they know they may be able to make a better case for it in 10-20 years, especially as old-skool hardliners who'd gnaw off their knees rather than consider it die off and more young people grow up who are less invested in older sectarian/religious conflicts and might be willing to consider the argument from a purely economic and rational perspective. The growing percentage of the population who identify as no religion (and theoretically are numerous enough now to swing it) would help with that.

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On 11/10/2017 at 11:34 AM, theguyfromtheVale said:

Well, Brexit was quite the step towards bringing the Troubles back all by itself. Once the ROI/NI border goes up, it's not too unlikely to flare up once more.

So, yes, voting for Brexit was messing with peace in North Ireland. It's a pity that wasn't really even being discussed during the campaign. After all, there might be quite a few older Brexit voters who still remember those times and might have decided differently if they had been more aware of this consequence.

For what it's worth, Northern Ireland's Catholics voted overwhelmingly (85%) for Remain, while only 40% of Protestants voted Remain:

https://theconversation.com/how-northern-ireland-voted-in-the-eu-referendum-and-what-it-means-for-border-talks-76677

Basically, Catholics voted en masse, regardless of class and income (perhaps to maintain links with the Republic?), whereas Protestants showed the same class and income divide as the UK mainland - poorer, less educated Protestants voted Leave, richer, better educated Protestants voted Remain. 

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On 13/10/2017 at 6:08 AM, Notone said:

Barnier Not enough progress to move on to the next stage of talks (future relations).

I know this is hardly surprising at this point.

Elsewhere, Corbyn said he voted remain and would do so again.

Not sure if trolling... I mean all his political actions thus far have been pointing towards a different vote. I recall a few fellow boarders here chiding me a bit over raging about Corbyn and his abysmal performance for the remain campaign, and they pointed out that Corbyn has always been a leaver at heart.

Well, we know the guy is a very energetic campaigner when he wants to be (general election), and his voting record on the EU is consistently Eurosceptic. I think we can guess where his heart lay here.

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Britain is half a trillion pounds poorer in foreign assets than everyone thought it was.

Interestingly, the Telegraph (who are rabidly pro-Tory) have led on this story, which is not good for the government, and the Mail has followed them up on it. Other papers and TV seem to have been very careful to not comment on it today, possibly because exactly what it means is still being determined (nothing good).

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49 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Britain is half a trillion pounds poorer in foreign assets than everyone thought it was.

Interestingly, the Telegraph (who are rabidly pro-Tory) have led on this story, which is not good for the government, and the Mail has followed them up on it. Other papers and TV seem to have been very careful to not comment on it today, possibly because exactly what it means is still being determined (nothing good).

Oh shit.

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Stupid board, anyway, universal credit hotline charges scrapped, which is obviously excellent news. It may provide help to the people that need it, it shows how insensitive and out of touch the tories are, and it shows May as weak and backtracking, again.

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NHS figures out today, they show a near-total collapse in the ability of the service to meet demand. We knew it was going to be bad, but England, Wales and Northern Ireland hitting 0% of their targets and Scotland just 8% is beyond belief.

The NHS is going to be hell on earth until we come out the far side of winter. How they're going to get through the surge in demand during the cold months when things now are worse than they have been for decades is a major concern.

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This was always the Tory end game I'm afraid.

NHS fails, insurance companies step in to fill the breach - especially those based in the USA, and Hallelujah 99% of us are F***ed.

Just don't expect an reduction in your tax bill from the lack of an NHS (it may be kept on for emergency services only, as a fop/excuse).

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Once Brexit is concluded, I suspect we'll see a lot of the same ultra-free-market-espousing hardcore Tories turning their full firepower on the NHS. This has always been their long-term goal: get out from Europe, get rid of the NHS, reduce the state to the size of a small pea (with them firmly inside it, of course) and retire to the boards of the newly set-up health companies.

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