UK Politics - summer edition

[Yukle]

1 hour ago, mormont said:

This isn't quite right. The Irish have said that there needs to be substantial progress on a border deal before the trade negotiations start, because they don't want the Tories to think they can keep kicking this can down the road.

A great tragedy of Brexit is that the demilitarised Northern Ireland was close to the EU's crowning glory within the UK. I really really hope that the IRA's wind are really gone from their sails; imagine hard borders between the Irish countries again...

[Werthead]

Quote

 

This isn't quite right. The Irish have said that there needs to be substantial progress on a border deal before the trade negotiations start, because they don't want the Tories to think they can keep kicking this can down the road.

 

The Irish PM has made it clear that he wants a British guarantee in writing that there will be no hard border on the island of Ireland before he is willing to sign off on the trade talks. There isn't much wriggle room there.

Of course, he might out of a job soon, but not before the deadline of 4 December.

1 hour ago, Yukle said:

A great tragedy of Brexit is that the demilitarised Northern Ireland was close to the EU's crowning glory within the UK. I really really hope that the IRA's wind are really gone from their sails; imagine hard borders between the Irish countries again...

The problem is that the direction of travel in Northern Ireland is towards reunification: the demographics are shifting in favour of that and are continuing to do so, so reimposing the border will harden positions on both sides and could lead to a resumption of violence, except this time those in favour of reunification will have numbers on their side in a few years.

The question for the DUP is if the reimposition of a hard border, which would annoy everyone on all sides of the argument, hurts their cause and accelerates the likely timetable for reunification or vice versa. As far as I can tell they are in denial about the situation, so who knows.

[mormont]

17 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The Irish PM has made it clear that he wants a British guarantee in writing that there will be no hard border on the island of Ireland before he is willing to sign off on the trade talks. There isn't much wriggle room there.

The UK government officially say the same thing, of course: no hard border. But they know that might be (is) impossible to square with the commitments they've made to the rabid Eurosceptics. Which is why they want to kick the can down the road, hopeful that something will turn up that gives them the leverage to fix that one way or the other, or at least to put off the 'no deal' reality. 

But as I say, all that Fox has said is, no final deal. He can still  give the guarantee the Irish want and claim he hasn't agreed a final deal, if he really has to. It's just that the final deal would have to include that guarantee, and apparently technology will solve all those problems, so hard borders are now irrelevant. Hooray!

[Yukle]

1 minute ago, mormont said:

But as I say, all that Fox has said is, no final deal.

Now you mention it, based on the current speed of negotiations and how much they're achieving, I wonder how we'll celebrate when, in 2066, they announce the 50 year anniversary of when they began the Brexit negotiations?

[Maltaran]

Disappointingly, there will be no extra bank holiday. What's the point of royal weddings if we don't get the day off work?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42138938

[Hereward]

Plates?

[Hereward]

More seriously, I think this is, given the context, a very positive step. She is a Catholic, a divorcee and mixed race. These are things that Daily Mail and Daily Express readers do not like. But they do revere the royal family. I hope that this may give them some perspective.

[williamjm]

17 minutes ago, Maltaran said:

Disappointingly, there will be no extra bank holiday. What's the point of royal weddings if we don't get the day off work?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42138938

Pity, the last Royal Wedding bonus public holiday was great, especially since William and Kate decided to get married on my birthday.

I'm almost surprised Theresa May didn't announce one, just so that she could actually do something popular and non-controversial for a change.

4 hours ago, Werthead said:

The problem is that the direction of travel in Northern Ireland is towards reunification: the demographics are shifting in favour of that and are continuing to do so, so reimposing the border will harden positions on both sides and could lead to a resumption of violence, except this time those in favour of reunification will have numbers on their side in a few years.

The question for the DUP is if the reimposition of a hard border, which would annoy everyone on all sides of the argument, hurts their cause and accelerates the likely timetable for reunification or vice versa. As far as I can tell they are in denial about the situation, so who knows.

It does feel like the DUP's support for Brexit may have been a strategic error for their primary long term goal of keeping Northern Ireland in the UK, but long term strategic thinking is unfashionable in modern politics. I seem to remember reading that Iain Paisley thought the EU was a papist plot and the European Parliament had a seat reserved for the Antichrist so I think it's fair to say the DUPs approach towards Europe hasn't always been entirely rational.

[Yukle]

3 hours ago, Hereward said:

More seriously, I think this is, given the context, a very positive step. She is a Catholic, a divorcee and mixed race.

It probably helps that he's a younger brother, I assume? Out of interest, were he suddenly in a position to be a direct heir, would his marriage be allowed as Head of the Church of England?

[Werthead]

3 minutes ago, Yukle said:

It probably helps that he's a younger brother, I assume? Out of interest, were he suddenly in a position to be a direct heir, would his marriage be allowed as Head of the Church of England?

That'd be an interesting constitutional matter. Harry's reaction would, I suspect, involve going telling the people involved to go fuck themselves.

In 2017, not 1936 (which someone needs to tell The Spectator), but the strict application of the rules would need to be looked at. It won't happen, though. His father, brother, nephew and niece would all need to pass away, which is extraordinarily unlikely to happen.

[Yukle]

1 minute ago, Werthead said:

In 2017, not 1936 (which someone needs to tell The Spectator), but the strict application of the rules would need to be looked at. 

Makes sense. I suppose they already changed the rules about male primogeniture anyway when Princess Kate was due.

[Werthead]

The Daily Mail comments are, as you'd expect, full of happiness for the happy couple.

(not a link to the Mail because no)

[Maltaran]

21 minutes ago, Yukle said:

It probably helps that he's a younger brother, I assume? Out of interest, were he suddenly in a position to be a direct heir, would his marriage be allowed as Head of the Church of England?

The CofE does allow divorcees to get remarried in church now if the local priest agrees - Justin Welby himself has said they can have a church wedding.

[Yukle]

17 minutes ago, Werthead said:

(not a link to the Mail because no)

Here's one:

https://media.giphy.com/media/5m8J2LjONk7D2/giphy.gif

 

[Derfel Cadarn]

I liked (not really) the comment where someone is so disgusted he is going to burn his passport and take the first flight out thr UK.

Maybe don't try it in that order, mate.

[SeanF]

 

It's all moot, as Meghan Markle will be baptised and confirmed in the Church of England.

[Werthead]

Bertie Ahern proposes a "Ah, let's wing it," solution to the border issue. Which actually could work (in the absence of any sensible plan). Cameras will track large lorries crossing the border and any small goods or passengers crossing the border will be ignored.

This does leave open the problem of EU migrants crossing the border and getting on a ferry or internal flight to the UK mainland, but no-one seems to be particularly worried about this at the moment, so I'm guessing they're going to think about that later on. Huh.

Daniel Hannan's lovely piece of science fiction optimism about Britain from the referendum is also worth revisiting. It's quite amusing, especially as about 1/3 of the claims in it have been shot down in flames already.

[Yukle]

6 hours ago, SeanF said:

It's all moot, as Meghan Markle will be baptised and confirmed in the Church of England.

Sadly, the issue for many is that one of her parents is black. I saw one comment from a tweet that was shown on the news that nearly made me vomit: "We didn't vote for Brexit to get more of those people."

While I don't condone violence, I wouldn't be sad if somebody accidentally bumped that person into busy traffic.

[Werthead]

Excellent trolling from the EU Parliament on Twitter this afternoon. They put up links to their impact assessments of Brexit and even a livestream of the Irish borders debate.

Meanwhile, David Davis is going to be lucky now to avoid invoking contempt of Parliament. Even Mogg was lambasting them for not publishing the full text of their analysis (although he also pointed out that they could have opposed the vote on a technicality they chose not to invoke, so they can always do that instead). Entertainingly, I believe MPs found guilty of contempt of Parliament can still be imprisoned in the clock tower of the Houses of Parliament, as I believe they never revoked that as a punishment.

[Yukle]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42161346

The final bill for Brexit is still hovering around 50 billion pounds. So much for the EU taking all of their money and getting nothing in return. The article says that, in ballpark terms, the UK has almost twice as many liabilities owing as they have outstanding to them. Seems that, after all, they probably were being paid more by the EU as a whole than they were giving back.