Was Doran Martell's 'master' plan only to wed Arianne to Viserys, or am I missing something here?

[sweetsunray]

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Tyene is only four years or so older than Aegon, so it's tough for her to be teaching Tyene as a child and fAegon.

But JonCon was not given the responsibility to raise fAegon until five years after Robert's Rebellion. That makes Tyene and Arianne nine to ten years old at the earliest for Lemore to getting hired.

We have confirmation that Tyene's mother did not raise Tyene for years and years, otherwise Doran would have no need to inform Tyene about how her mother used to sing Faith songs to her daughter, nor would there be any  need to visit her in the Reach. Oberyn did not allow his daughters to be raised by their mothers away from Sunspear. The tidbit of info we have about Tyene's mother clearly paints a picture of the mother having remained in Dorne the first years when Tyene was not yet weaned, but left Tyene and Dorne and returned to the Reach on her own. Then at some point Arianne and 3 Sand Snakes visit Tyene's mother in the Reach.

[cpg2016]

On 8/3/2017 at 8:09 PM, sweetsunray said:

Well, It is a very good question.  Yes, if she was an agent, she would have to report back. As I said, I myself lean to the opinion that Oberyn sent her without involving Doran to begin with. Doran doesn't seem to know why Sarella is in Oldtown and what she's doing there for example. Obviously Lemore could have reported back to Oberyn without Oberyn informing Doran. The less people know, the less they can talk. And since we only met Oberyn when talking to Tyrion, we can be sure he never let anything on to Tyrion, not when "birds are listening" (aka Varys) in the Red Keep. If Doran knows, then I believe Oberyn did not reveal it until he was about to leave for King's Landing (and saying his goodbye at the Water Gardens).  

If Doran knows who she is, he doesn't need to send Arianne to verify his identity.  If Doran doesn't know who she is, then she never reported back, and the whole question about what she was doing pops back up.

On 8/3/2017 at 8:09 PM, sweetsunray said:

So, no, we don't know for certain that she never reported back throughout the years, if she is who I argue she is.

Again, we DO know.  We know she never reported back because Doran doesn't know.  We know Oberyn and Doran worked very closely together; this isn't something that could reasonably be kept a secret between them.  So IF Septa Lemore = Tyene Sand's mother, we would know if she reported back.  That we have no evidence of that happening is an extremely strong, I would say persuasive, argument against it.

On 8/3/2017 at 8:09 PM, sweetsunray said:

Meanwhile there is no particular reason to suppose that Lemore would risk writing a message to Doran or Oberyn once in Westeros. First, she may not yet be aware that Oberyn is dead since aFfC. Secondly, since JonCon himself writes a letter to announce his arrival and seek an alliance with Doran and Dorne, she would not need to take the risk to send her own report committed to paper that might be read and intercepted by others. It is only during her stay in Westeros that she may have learned of Oberyn's death and Arianne's response at seeing her, wanting to say her true name, would make her realize that at least Arianne has no idea.

This makes no sense.  Why would she be afraid her message would be intercepted?  Why not just tell Jon Connington who she is, and that she can confirm what is obviously a suspicious report?  Once fAegon has announced his true identity, every possible reason for Lemore's silence disappears.  She can't blow the lid off the whole scheme, because it's common knowledge now.  She has no reason to hide her identity from Team fAegon, because now her "identity" is a real asset to their cause. What, exactly, is going to be in her report that is so dynamite that she can't risk sending it?  And plus, why would Arianne even believe her when she says who she is?  Why would that be any more believable in the moment than her believing fAegon's identity at face value?  None of this theory makes the slightest bit of sense, logically.

On 8/3/2017 at 8:09 PM, sweetsunray said:

And I asnwered that point already: just like Sansa, Lemore can redye her hair in her private room with a pale of water, without any witness there. No need to do it openly.

So your argument is that for years, potentially even more than a decade, Septa Lemore has managed to hide the fact that she's dying her hair?  Come on, now, this is getting ridiculous.  She lives in extremely close quarters with a bunch of people primed to be suspicious and on alert; it just doesn't make sense.  The fact that Tyrion doesn't see her dyeing her hair is fine; but I can't imagine JonCon hasn't noticed in all these years.

On 8/3/2017 at 8:09 PM, sweetsunray said:

And he was still supposed to get them through marriage, not with the intruction to become a dragonrider. You make an assertion with no evidence for it. I've got no problem with presenting it as a hypothesis, one you may fully believe, but you cannot state it as fact.

I am making the statement that Quentyn's mission is to bring a dragon home for Dorne.  I did not make the assertion that he was meant to be a dragonrider; Quentyn views this (rightly) as the only other way to get a dragon back to Westeros if Dany won't marry him and won't leave Meereen.

They do not see. His friends had lost sight of his true purpose here. The road leads through her, not to her. Daenerys is the means to the prize, not the prize itself. 

So we can say definitively that Quentyn's purpose is not specifically to marry Daenerys.  What could she possibly be a road to, if not a dragon?  This isn't exactly a leap of faith, given his subsequent actions.

Doran Martell had put the fate of Dorne into his hands, he could not fail him, not whilst life remained.

The old knight had heard enough. "What Prince Quentyn did he did for Dorne. Do you take me for some doting grandfather? I have spent my life around kings and queens and princes. Sunspear means to take up arms against the Iron Throne. No, do not trouble to deny it. Doran Martell is not a man to call his spears without hope of victory. Duty brought Prince Quentyn here. Duty, honor, thirst for glory … never love. Quentyn was here for dragons, not Daenerys."

This is barely even debatable.  Basically every character, up to and including Quentyn himself, says the same thing.  What, exactly, would convince you that was his purpose?  He said it himself.  Other characters say it of him.  It makes sense in context.  You need a direct quote from Martin himself, outside the text?

On 8/3/2017 at 8:09 PM, sweetsunray said:

There are always violent conflicts in Essos: Disputed Lands, Stepstones, Dothraki. Initially there is no reason to believe it is different than the usual course, or that Volantis and Qarth would plunge in to join. After all, the Elephants were in political power for years and they don't advocate war at all.

But Doran isn't sending Quentyn to the Stepstones, or the Disputed Lands.  He is sending him to Slaver's Bay, where he knows there is a specific and particularly brutal war going on.  And again, if he had bothered to send his son, or anyone else, with a proper escort, his plan might work!  They'd get to Dany before Hizdahr becomes engaged to her and the chance of success skyrockets!

On 8/3/2017 at 8:09 PM, sweetsunray said:

Already answered above. I remind you again that Doran knows about Sarella being at Oldtown, but not the particulars, nor is Sarella reporting to Doran either. Whether Doran knows now or not, Lemore would be reporting back to Oberyn, not Doran directly. 

This is stupid.  Doran knows Sarella is at Oldtown, but not the particulars, because Sarella cannot report back.  First off, she isn't necessarily there for any ulterior motive except to learn.  And if she's found out as a girl, she'll be kicked out of the Citadel at minimum.  So it isn't an analogous situation.

Lemore as Tyene's mother, by contrast, is in Essos for an ulterior motive, and you are presuming that she reports to Oberyn and not Doran.  And furthermore, it's beyond the pale of suspension of disbelief that Oberyn isn't telling Doran.  What possible reason could he have to hide that, when he's privy to every other secret Doran has?  We have to assume Oberyn would have told Doran, because otherwise the whole plot makes no sense; Oberyn has no independent political power of his own, he can only achieve his ends through Doran.  

So it boils down to this.  Either Tyene's mother is Septa Lemore, in which case you have to explain why (a) she didn't write back, or (b) why Doran feels the need to now send his daughter into an active war zone to corroborate an identity which has already been corroborated.  As you are finding in your struggles to answer this, there isn't a good or even somewhat rational explanation.  The only possible one relies on everyone involved acting as stupidly and as counter to their established characterization as possible.  Whereas, if she just a random disgraced Septa... then everything makes perfect sense.

On 8/3/2017 at 8:09 PM, sweetsunray said:

I disagree that he should expect Dany to war her own kindred jsut because she wants to be queen before her male kin. In fact, I don't believe Dany as a character would do so if Viserys were alive, or if she was informed about Aegon years ago. She believes she's the only and last Targaryen. She does not even know that Ben Plumm's father was actually Aegon IV and not the Old Plumm buried six feet under. 

What you believe is immaterial.  It's what Doran should believe.  And as I said, all he knows is she is a violent conqueror with dragons.  It is perfectly within reason for him to expect Dany to not take well to the idea that she should give up her throne, as the last definitely-trueborn Targaryen, to some upstart of uncertain provenance.  Even if he IS a Targaryen, Dany is providing the dragons, so why should she play second fiddle to fAegon?

The point being, if Doran isn't planning for this contingency then he's an awful, awful plotter.  Which is exactly my point.  People who assume others will act against their own best interests, or who don't plan contingencies, are shitty plotters, and Doran checks all those boxes, repeatedly.

On 8/3/2017 at 8:09 PM, sweetsunray said:

This is meta-thinking again. Your argument about how Doran's shitty plotting may end in extinction disaster of his family is only of value to assess Doran's plans, not what actual plans he made. I was considering the plans he might possibly have made, leaving out my personal opinion of it. We won't understand Doran's plans by the "he should" reasoning.

It most certainly is not "meta-thinking".  As I said above, a good plotter plans for contingencies.  All we can judge for certain are the plans he has made, and those can very easily lead to the extinction of his family, without him actually getting anything significant in return.  I'm not advocating for what he should do, I'm discussing what he's done.  He's tied his kids, or is trying to, to three competing claims to the Iron Throne.  Literally, only one of them can win out.  Best case scenario, one of his kids is King/Queen Consort, and the other is a Prince/Princess to a rival claimant to the throne.  As Doran would know, Dany cannot allow fAegon to hold political power, because his claim to the throne is better than hers.  I'm just saying there is no scenario in which Doran gets what he wants through the actions we know him to have taken.

 

On 8/3/2017 at 8:09 PM, sweetsunray said:

I just consider them irrelevant to understanding Doran or Oberyn or Lemore. So, I equally agree on a meta-level but disagree onits relevance on udnerstanding a character's plots. Nothing deliberate oblique about that, nor inadvertent.

OK... but you're still defending the idea that Lemore is Tyene's mother.  An argument without a single solitary shred of evidence.  It's enticing because from a meta perspective, the fandom likes to think that characters have secret identities even when there is no reason for that secret identity to exist.

Similarly, my argument is that Doran is a shitty plotter.  I'm not reaching outside the text for that; it's right there.  He sends his woefully unqualified son to at minimum woo a queen in a farawary land by presenting a marriage pact that doesn't mention either Quentyn or Dany.  The explicit reasoning is that Quentyn provides Dornish spears for Daenerys, an explicitly diplomatic reason to marry someone (as Quentyn himself thinks, Daenerys doesn't have to love or want him to marry him, just recognize the value of Dornish support).  So Doran has sent his son on a diplomatic mission, but is too afraid of reprisals from the Iron Throne to actually make it is a diplomatic mission.  He sends him undercover, with a bare handful of knights/retainers.  That is awful plotting.  Awful.  Whatever reasons he may have, he did not provide his son the resources to help him succeed most effectively.  In other words, bad planning/plotting.  

 I think I've pretty effectively demonstrated why Septa Lemore is unlikely to be Tyene's mother.  You have to assume Oberyn is keeping it a secret from Doran, despite the text being very clear that Doran and Oberyn have no secrets, and furthermore, that Oberyn is fully aware and an active and important participant in Doran's schemes to restore the Targaryen monarchy.  With all these conspiracy/hidden identity theories, there are a few pretty simple rules of thumb to dismiss them out of hand or not.   Does it make sense?  In other words, is there something in the text that leads us to believe that said character might not be who they say there are?  Does that character's actions make more sense, or less, if they are in fact someone else?  And lastly, though this is less important, is it thematically resonant or does it advance the plot?  For R+L=J, all of these things are true.  It helps clear up a lot of the mystery and inconsistencies surrounding Jon and Ned's actions towards him.  For this Septa Lemore theory, none of them hold up.

If we assume that Lemore is just a random septa who was disgraced by breaking her vow of chastity, we would expect everything to play out exactly as it does IOTL.  If we think she's Tyene's mother, there are a ton of actions that don't make sense, at all.  Textually, it's a bad theory.  And from a meta perspective, it isn't the kind of "gotcha" moment that GRRM goes for.  It doesn't advance the plot (in fact, it retroactively has the plot make no sense), and it serves no narrative purpose.

[cpg2016]

On 8/3/2017 at 8:19 PM, sweetsunray said:

But JonCon was not given the responsibility to raise fAegon until five years after Robert's Rebellion. That makes Tyene and Arianne nine to ten years old at the earliest for Lemore to getting hired.

We have confirmation that Tyene's mother did not raise Tyene for years and years, otherwise Doran would have no need to inform Tyene about how her mother used to sing Faith songs to her daughter, nor would there be any  need to visit her in the Reach. Oberyn did not allow his daughters to be raised by their mothers away from Sunspear. The tidbit of info we have about Tyene's mother clearly paints a picture of the mother having remained in Dorne the first years when Tyene was not yet weaned, but left Tyene and Dorne and returned to the Reach on her own. Then at some point Arianne and 3 Sand Snakes visit Tyene's mother in the Reach.

Where in the world are you getting that?  As far as I can remember, this is the only info we get on Tyene's mother.

"Your mother was a septa. Oberyn once told me that she read to you in the cradle from the Seven-Pointed Star. 

Granted, that implies my timing is wrong, but there is nothing in there or anything else to suggest what Tyene's mother ends up doing.  Or even if Tyene herself wasn't brought up by her mother, as Obara was.  Merely that the ways of the Faith have been ingrained in Tyene since birth.

And Oberyn does allow his daughters to be raised by their mothers.  Obara, at a minimum, was old enough to be making conscious decisions about her future, which means she must have been older than 4 or 5, likely significantly so.

And again, all of this is nice, but isn't actually evidence that Septa Lemore is Tyene's mother.  At the end of the day, none of her or Doran's actions make any sense if she has this hidden identity.  Whereas, everything makes perfect sense if everyone is who they say there are.

[sweetsunray]

30 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

If Doran knows who she is, he doesn't need to send Arianne to verify his identity.  If Doran doesn't know who she is, then she never reported back, and the whole question about what she was doing pops back up.

 

30 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

Again, we DO know.  We know she never reported back because Doran doesn't know.  We know Oberyn and Doran worked very closely together; this isn't something that could reasonably be kept a secret between them.  So IF Septa Lemore = Tyene Sand's mother, we would know if she reported back.  That we have no evidence of that happening is an extremely strong, I would say persuasive, argument against it.

Despite your claim that this could not be reasonably kept secret between them, we have evidence that Doran does not know everything that Oberyn did or tried! You completely ignore the example I gave about Sarella in Oldtown. Doran does not know that Sarella is pretending to be a pupil of the Citadel under the name Alleras, and Sarella is not reporting back either.

So, regardless on whether Septa Lemore reports back to Doran upon arrival and JonCon sends a letter to Doran or not, does not prove or disprove anything.

Secondly, if she did report back then Doran would still want to send Arianne to Aegon, because Viserys is dead and he'd still want Arianne to make a royal match. Or is it so unprecedented an idea that Doran might keep information to himself from Arianne? Oh, we have years of Doran doing that to his daughter. 

37 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

This makes no sense.  Why would she be afraid her message would be intercepted?  Why not just tell Jon Connington who she is, and that she can confirm what is obviously a suspicious report?  Once fAegon has announced his true identity, every possible reason for Lemore's silence disappears.  She can't blow the lid off the whole scheme, because it's common knowledge now.  She has no reason to hide her identity from Team fAegon, because now her "identity" is a real asset to their cause. What, exactly, is going to be in her report that is so dynamite that she can't risk sending it?

Of course it makes sense. My point is that she has infiltrated JonCon's team, dyed her hair for years to hide her identity from JonCon and anyone else associated in the Aegon scheme. Just because Aegon lands and outs himself and JonCon sends a letter to Doran asking him to ally with them, the infiltratnt won't expose themselves. She would only do so, once Doran agrees to be an ally. Her revealing herself prior to them becoming allies would make JonCon distrust her and have her lose Aegon's ear.

Quote

 And plus, why would Arianne even believe her when she says who she is?  Why would that be any more believable in the moment than her believing fAegon's identity at face value?  None of this theory makes the slightest bit of sense, logically.

Because she KNOWS Tyene's mother. And she will learn that the family visit in the Reach was not just a family visit.

Back to the same questions I've already explained and answered. Re-read my previous posts. Not gonna re-hash it all.

It makes complete sense, logically. You simply ignore every answer I've given you and every other behavior of Doran and Oberyn that inconveniences your belief that it cannot be Tyene's mother.

48 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

So your argument is that for years, potentially even more than a decade, Septa Lemore has managed to hide the fact that she's dying her hair?  Come on, now, this is getting ridiculous.  She lives in extremely close quarters with a bunch of people primed to be suspicious and on alert; it just doesn't make sense.  The fact that Tyrion doesn't see her dyeing her hair is fine; but I can't imagine JonCon hasn't noticed in all these years.

See Alayne Stone. LF does not plan nor expect Sansa to out herself for years, and expects her to dye her hair too in the meantime, without anyone discovering it. And she lives in close quarters too, with servants who normally should be washing and bathing her. Still, Sansa does it herself. So, YES, my argument is that what Sansa is expected to do succesfully for years to come has already been done by Lemore. If George has Sansa (a girl of 13) manage it for months, then yes George can have Lemore manage it for years.

 

53 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

I am making the statement that Quentyn's mission is to bring a dragon home for Dorne.  I did not make the assertion that he was meant to be a dragonrider; Quentyn views this (rightly) as the only other way to get a dragon back to Westeros if Dany won't marry him and won't leave Meereen.

They do not see. His friends had lost sight of his true purpose here. The road leads through her, not to her. Daenerys is the means to the prize, not the prize itself. 

So we can say definitively that Quentyn's purpose is not specifically to marry Daenerys.  What could she possibly be a road to, if not a dragon?  This isn't exactly a leap of faith, given his subsequent actions.

Doran Martell had put the fate of Dorne into his hands, he could not fail him, not whilst life remained.

The old knight had heard enough. "What Prince Quentyn did he did for Dorne. Do you take me for some doting grandfather? I have spent my life around kings and queens and princes. Sunspear means to take up arms against the Iron Throne. No, do not trouble to deny it. Doran Martell is not a man to call his spears without hope of victory. Duty brought Prince Quentyn here. Duty, honor, thirst for glory … never love. Quentyn was here for dragons, not Daenerys."

This is barely even debatable.  Basically every character, up to and including Quentyn himself, says the same thing.  What, exactly, would convince you that was his purpose?  He said it himself.  Other characters say it of him.  It makes sense in context.  You need a direct quote from Martin himself, outside the text?

You are using a misguided POV of a character written by an author who's famous for unreliable narration through POV as evidence that Doran instructed Quentyn to get a dragon animal, ignoring that Doran explains marriage contracts to Arianne, and that was what Quentyn first proposed, including vouching 50k spears for Dany. Yes, Doran wants the animal-dragons on his side, as allies, but he wants it through a marriage alliance. He wants one of his three children on the throne and a second ruling Dorne, with Trystane as the spare. To do it without Dany is an idea that Dany suggests to Quentyn and Quentyn latches on by himself, to prove his worth. There's a parallel with Theon here. Balon wanted the North and set out a strategy and Theon was supposed to do his part. Theon wanted to prove himself to his father Balon and captured WF, which was not part of the instructions nor wise in the long run as it is landlocked. Asha told him to his face how unrealistic holding WF was and how it wasn't part of the plan. So, no, I don't take Dany's words to Quentyn and Quentyn's thoughts as evidence that Doran instructed Quentyn to get himself a dragon-animal without a military alliance with Dany or marriage alliance with Dany.

1 hour ago, cpg2016 said:

But Doran isn't sending Quentyn to the Stepstones, or the Disputed Lands.  He is sending him to Slaver's Bay, where he knows there is a specific and particularly brutal war going on.  And again, if he had bothered to send his son, or anyone else, with a proper escort, his plan might work!  They'd get to Dany before Hizdahr becomes engaged to her and the chance of success skyrockets!

I cited Stepstones and Disputed Lands as a region where there's ALWAYS some war going on. That's the reason why the Disputed Lands are called the Disputed Lands.

Furthermore, nobody, but absolutely nobody, expected Dany to stay put in Mereen. The war that was going on in Slaver's Bay at the time that Doran sends Quentyn is at a time when Dany was succesfully destroying and sacking cities in Slaver's Bay, not Slaver's Bay besetting Dany.

That Quentyn came too late is imo unsupported by Dany's actual choices. She's the one who chooses to stay in Mereen, which is the reason for the Harpy's Sons uprising. Xaro offers her ships and all she wants to make her sail off for Westeros. She throws a cherry at him. And so Qarth declares war and lets the ships she refused start a blockade. Then come the Yunkai army, which she givees too much power in her mind. George reveals what farce of an army it truly is through Quentyn's POV and Tyrion's: slave soldiers chained together and slaves soldiers on stelts with plumes, and none of them having had the type of training the Unsullied have. One of the two companies, who are the sole serious fighters, offer to run to her side, exactly because the Yunkai army is nothing more than a carnival, but she refuses that offer too. She doesn't want to release the dragons either, making Ben Plumm go over to the Yunkai. Dany's fears of the Yunkai army outside her walls is real to her, but its blown out of proportion to the independent reports we get, and her further decisions only make it a true threat, because she refuses the offer of coming to her side and alienates her ally to their side. Even then, just one well organized sortie was enough to make the Yunkai fold like a card house, because Selmy accepted the deal with the Winblown, the dragons freed themselves, and Ben Plumm decides to sit it out while playing cyvasse with Tyrion.

Dany would have refused Quentyn's offer even if he had arrived at the same time as say Xaro arrived. Quentyn only might have managed succes if he'd met Dany in Qarth at the end of aCoK. But once she has an army of her own and decides to dig into Mereen, Quentyn never made any chance.

1 hour ago, cpg2016 said:

This is stupid.  Doran knows Sarella is at Oldtown, but not the particulars, because Sarella cannot report back.  First off, she isn't necessarily there for any ulterior motive except to learn.  And if she's found out as a girl, she'll be kicked out of the Citadel at minimum.  So it isn't an analogous situation.

Of course it's an analogues situation. Sarella works closely with Marwyn and the ravens. And Lemore has the same issue with not wanting to expose her identity to those she infiltrated at a time when nothing is sure yet. If Lemore is found out to be an agent of Oberyn before an alliance is made between Dorne and Aegon, then she'd be kicked out too or held away from giving counsil to Aegon, who starts to make the decisions more and more.

I'd say that Sarella is definitely there for an ulterior motive. If there's a common theme amongst the Sand Snakes from the very beginning we are officially introduced to them in the books then it's "for Oberyn". And it's the same theme they swear to when they agree to do as Doran instructs them to. Sarella is in the Citadel "for Oberyn" with Marwyn, the maester who deals in magic, the one thing that the Citadel tries to smother. Marwyn, the maester who uses glass candles (to spy even on his students), exactly one of the things that comes up and is introduced to the reader as a magical item in the prologue where we are first introduced to Sarella, without knowing she's a girl. Sarella is there for magical purposes and most likely to monitor Westeros and Essos with the glass candles.

1 hour ago, cpg2016 said:

Lemore as Tyene's mother, by contrast, is in Essos for an ulterior motive, and you are presuming that she reports to Oberyn and not Doran.  And furthermore, it's beyond the pale of suspension of disbelief that Oberyn isn't telling Doran.  What possible reason could he have to hide that, when he's privy to every other secret Doran has?  We have to assume Oberyn would have told Doran, because otherwise the whole plot makes no sense; Oberyn has no independent political power of his own, he can only achieve his ends through Doran.  

Oberyn DID NOT TELL WHY Sarella is in Oldtown either. There is precedent of Oberyn not telling everything to Doran. So, yes, Oberyn could have withheld information from Doran. I already explained why Oberyn could have decided to wait or not tell Doran:

1. Initially a possible reason to withhold information would be because Oberyn himself is not yet sure of the report about Aegon's survival. He could reasonably want to spare Doran from the disappointment if Lemore reports back that JonCon truly drank himself to death.
2. Later when Lemore confirms that JonCon hired her to teach this young child in the Faith, Oberyn could still decide to keep the knowledge to himself, for Aegon is still a young child, living on a boat and anything may befall him. Why tell his brother that Aegon survived when he still might die accidentally or of some child disease, when part of Aegon's survival hinges on as few people knowing about it. This is consistent with Lemore's fears to out Aegon to the whole of the GC, despite him being off age already.
3. After keepig it secret for so many years, you might as well keep it a secret, until the time comes to include Doran in the knowledge. And the only possible time for that comes when Oberyn decides to take up Tywin's invitation to sit on the council of KL. But since he did not disclose even Sarella's mission to Doran at that time, it's possible he still didn't inform Doran.
4. Doran himself may have decided at some point that the less he actually knows of what Oberyn is up to, the better. It's the only way that Doran can deny responsibility.

Oberyn is very much portrayed as a man who did things his own way. Doran and Oberyn had the same goal in mind, but do disagree on how to achieve it. Both men knew and accepted their differences in responsibility and freedom to act.

1 hour ago, cpg2016 said:

So it boils down to this.  Either Tyene's mother is Septa Lemore, in which case you have to explain why (a) she didn't write back, or (b) why Doran feels the need to now send his daughter into an active war zone to corroborate an identity which has already been corroborated.  

a - we have no actual evidence that she didn't write back once she landed in Westeros, and even if she didn't there may be valid reasons for it. Such as reporting back only to Oberyn and her learning that he's dead from the maester reports lying around in the rookeries of every castle the GC conquers.

b - possible for the same reason he intended to send his daughter to be a cupbearer in Tyrosh - betrothal. Except in this case, there is no betrothal contract. Arianne has proven herself to be one who won't be accepting a husband just because her father tells her, and JonCon may want Dornish spears without a marriage deal. And young men of 18 who are conquering a kingdom successfully will not easily commit and honor a marriage contract, unless they can get a look at the potential bride. Since Arianne can seduce a committed KG, she's up for the task to seduce Aegon without her father telling her. Doran could expect other houses to try and make similar deals, especially Mace Tyrell, now that the Tyrell-Lannister alliance has gone extremely sour. Even if Doran only suspects Aegon to be the real thing, without actual confirmation yet, that still would be the reason why Doran sent Arianne as his emissary. Have boy meets girl especially when boy want girl's spears. 

You seem to seriously have an issue with "war zones". You assume that no Westerosi ruler of a great house would send his adult children into war zones. The man is planning to go to war himself, for years, and he himself cannot ride to battle. So, his adult children will have to do it for him anyway, including commanding armies. You also seem to think that Doran is a character who tries to keep his children as safe as possible. And yet, he sent Quentyn to Yronwood (a house notoriously known to not be 100% pro-Martell) as a cupbearer, when he was still a very young child. It's the reason why his wife left him and went back to Norvos. Doran is not Ned Stark or Catelyn who try to keep Sansa in an ivory tower. Great Houses send their heirs into active war all the time, and for some weird reason you believe that Doran, the Prince of Dorne, a descendant of Nymeria, prince over a region with woman commanding armies in the past or actively fighting will not do so. It seems to me you're making too much of a notorious "caution". Doran's caution applies to the safety of his region, but it has already been established that this caution does not actually extend to his own children. Where he takes no risk by not going into open rebellion, he does take risks with his children and already from a very young age.

Quote

As you are finding in your struggles to answer this, there isn't a good or even somewhat rational explanation.  

I'm not struggling to answer these questions. You're just struggling to consider them, even when there is precedent. You are making it more convulated than necessary and arguing first one thing, to then say the opposite.

Quote

The only possible one relies on everyone involved acting as stupidly and as counter to their established characterization as possible.

Only in the characterization as you cling to it, while ignoring evidence to the contrary.

Quote

 Whereas, if she just a random disgraced Septa... then everything makes perfect sense.

No, it doesn't make perfect sense if she's just a randomly soiled septa, for a randomly soiled septa wouldn't point out to Tyrion that she too needs to go about in cities without risking being recognized. She allows Tyrion, the reader and JonCon at least that much insight - something about her in a septa robe is recognizable, even in Essos. But she has them believe it's simply a personal irrelevant secret.

The only characters on the Shy Maid who are who they say there is Ser Rolly Duckfield and the Rhoynish "Children" poling the boat.

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

What you believe is immaterial.  It's what Doran should believe.  And as I said, all he knows is she is a violent conqueror with dragons.  It is perfectly within reason for him to expect Dany to not take well to the idea that she should give up her throne, as the last definitely-trueborn Targaryen, to some upstart of uncertain provenance.  Even if he IS a Targaryen, Dany is providing the dragons, so why should she play second fiddle to fAegon?

I do not entirely disagree that Doran has info to fear her turning against a fellow Targ, but she also never became a conqueror long after Viserys was dead. She married a khal for Viserys. This is known too. And when there are only two Targaryens left in the whole world, it's not logical to expect those Targs to rather fight each other than form an alliance. Even Tyrion does not expect that, nor do JonCon or the GC.

I agree that my meta-beliefs are as irrelevant to you as yours are to me.

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

It most certainly is not "meta-thinking".  As I said above, a good plotter plans for contingencies.  All we can judge for certain are the plans he has made, and those can very easily lead to the extinction of his family, without him actually getting anything significant in return.  I'm not advocating for what he should do, I'm discussing what he's done.  He's tied his kids, or is trying to, to three competing claims to the Iron Throne.  Literally, only one of them can win out.  Best case scenario, one of his kids is King/Queen Consort, and the other is a Prince/Princess to a rival claimant to the throne.  As Doran would know, Dany cannot allow fAegon to hold political power, because his claim to the throne is better than hers.  I'm just saying there is no scenario in which Doran gets what he wants through the actions we know him to have taken.

And you assume in the above argument that Doran is a good-plotter but already pointed out some of his failings: Quentyn only gets a small escort, putting him into logistical problems in Volantis when it's clear that Dany is still staying in Mereen. He allowed Oberyn to go to KL when he knew he was out on revenge against the Mountain and Tywin. 

It is meta-thinking, because you reason of what you deem good plans by your own norms and you use certain assumptions on an expected Dance of Dragons between Aegon and Dany, as if Doran is a reader of the books. No, you're not using what Doran has done as evidence: the evidence is that he sent Arianne to meet with Aegon while he already sent Quentyn to propose marriage to Dany. Quentyn we know was sent to propose marriage to Dany. Arianne we and Doran know to be an excellent seducer and to have a thing for Targ features. You are arguing that he shouldn't be reasonably doing this, and yet he does.

As for Doran ultimately succeeding: well Quentyn is already dead. And those overripe blood oranges splattering onto the floor in Areo Hotah's chapter at the Water Gardens foreshadows that all of Doran's children will meet a bloody end. And thus Doran's plans will all end in disaster. Doran is supposed to make mistakes.

3 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

OK... but you're still defending the idea that Lemore is Tyene's mother.  An argument without a single solitary shred of evidence.  It's enticing because from a meta perspective, the fandom likes to think that characters have secret identities even when there is no reason for that secret identity to exist.

Actually the circumstantial evidence for it is laid out by George himself. Secret mission with at least 3 characters not telling who they are: Aegon, JonCon and Tyrion.

Furthermore there is an unsolved mistery with regards to Haldon being only half a maester when Haldon is everything the Citadel would want in a maester: no believer in magic, rational, knows 5 languages, history, basic medicine, and mathemathics as well as any maester that taught Tyrion. My theory is that Haldon is a woman and got caught and therefore was kicked out of the Citadel though she would have been the perfect maester in the Citadel's eyes if she had been a man. When Tyrion says "a maester doesn't need a cock" at first meeting with Haldon, Tyrion's wrong. No cock, and you only get to be half a maester without a chain. So, when Flowers of the GC greets JonCon and Haldon with "bugger" and "cunt" George gives us two meta-clues - JonCon being homosexual and Haldon being a woman. And yes I know that Haldon seems to piss from the stern of the Shy Maid: and yet, Tyrion saw no cock: Haldon distracted Tyrion with taunts once Tyrion proposed to join him at the stern to keep him at a distance, and if you pay attention to the scene Haldon was pissing "against" the wind. It was an act to throw off Tyrion and not make the same mistake that Arya did (Gendry figured out she was a girl because she never peed in sight). Haldon's secret is just a personal one, and of little actual consequence.

Regardless, you have 4 charachters out of 8 with a mystery of who they are. The Rhoynish polers are inconsequentional as they are left behind. Rolly Duckfield tells and explains Tyrion his background story. And then we have the "duck" name: if it walks, quacks and acts like a duck, it is a duck. So, Ser Rolly is indeed who he says he is.

You also have several characters with links to Dorne: the polers and Haldon as a parallel to Sarella.

But in the same chapter where Haldon does his pretense pissing against the wind, we also have a focus on Lemore, and the chapter ends with Tyrion discovering Young Griff's supposed identity: Aegon. The chapter is all about mystery identity.

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Innocence despoiled, he thought … though Lemore was not near as innocent as she appeared. She had stretch marks on her belly that could only have come from childbirth. [...] Like everyone else aboard the Shy Maid, she had her secrets. She was welcome to them. I do not want to know her, I only want to fuck her. She knew it too. As she hung her septa's crystal about her neck, to nestle in the cleft between her breasts, she teased him with a smile.

Obviously, she's not hiding the fact that she has stretch marks. She's openly giving Tyrion a reason to explain her part in this: just a soiled septa, kicked out of her order because she didn't keep her vows. Her having been pregnant once is obviously not the "secret". And she knows he's horny and the sight of her naked body is enough to not want Tyrion to investigate it any further.

Meanwhile she sincerely prays in the next chapter. She's thus not a fake septa either.

 

Quote

 

Lemore had changed out of her septa's robes into garb more befitting the wife or daughter of a prosperous merchant. Tyrion watched her closely. He had sniffed out the truth beneath the dyed blue hair of Griff and Young Griff easily enough, and Yandry and Ysilla seemed to be no more than they claimed to be, whilst Duck was somewhat less. Lemore, though … Who is she, really? Why is she here? Not for gold, I'd judge. What is this prince to her? Was she ever a true septa?

Haldon took note of her change of garb as well. "What are we to make of this sudden loss of faith? I preferred you in your septa's robes, Lemore." [...] Lemore gave [Tyrion] a reproachful look. "That is because you have a wicked soul. Septa's robes scream of Westeros and might draw unwelcome eyes onto us." She turned back to Prince Aegon. "You are not the only one who must needs hide."

 

 

Now for the few chapters we have in Dorne, Tyene's mother and Tyene herself are mentioned quite a lot. Except we never learn the name of Tyene's mother. Oh and there is of course this ironic parallel of Tyene herself being sent to infiltrate King's Landing and the High Sparrows as a septa.

 

Now, whether you have an issue with seeking hidden identities is irrelevant. I'm not a personal fan of it, but hidden, false or surprising identities is something that George uses by the multitude. Some he reveals fairly soon, others he keeps close to his chest but sprinkles clues about. And especially this team of characters is rife with false and hidden and mysterious identities, some more plot relevant than others. Quite evidently, George does hint that there is more to Lemore than meets the eye through Tyrion's POV. George wants us to wonder about her identity, he wants us to ask ourselves why she is with Aegon, and whether she is a true septa. Denying that George doesn't want us to wonder about Lemore is a folly, as it's right there in the text, spelled out, even after we already know as much as Tyrion: that she's a spoiled septa. People are not proposing identities for Lemore just for the sake of love of alternative identities, but because George proposes it through Tyrion's POV.

 

Now, George could conjure an identity out of his author's hat that is unrelated to the possible mystery women out there, but that would be something he'd consider cheating. The clues he's giving us about Lemore should be clues that match with another mentioned character, and Tyene's mother is one of them, who fits everything except for the hair color, which can be solved by hair dying. In fact, I'm quite sure that careful readers of aFfC and having paid enough attention to figure out that Alleras is Sarella will automatically consider Tyene's mother once George suggests that Lemore has a hidden identity. But on checking Tyene's hair as blonde, they end up dismissing Tyene's mother. And while readers make all sorts of motivations for it to be Ashara and others, few have proposed a motive for Tyene's mother. Hilariously, the visit to Tyene's mother in the Reach is used as an argument why it cannot be her, and yet, nobody knows exactly when that visit was, or considered the family visit may have been a ruse by Oberyn himself to meet with her and ask her for a favor. The often cited visit to me gives the possible motive: for Oberyn. 

 

Now, you may mention repeatedly that Lemore's affirmation of Aegon's identity does not actually confirm the veracity of it to us, but I have explained, thoroughly, why it would work for Arianne repeatedly in a world where affirmation of identity relies completely on the attestation and word of other people that someoene else considers reliable. Instead of addressing my answers, you go onto something else, and then reiterate your issue as if I did not even bother to answer it. Fine, my answers fail to persuade you. That's okay. But that I'm struggling to answer your issues is a lie. Since you deny that George wants us to consider that Lemore may be someone with a connection or hidden idenity, while it is so obviously within the text, that is enough evidence to me that I'm not talking to someone who wants to discuss this reasonably, but is preconceived and in denial of actual text.

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Similarly, my argument is that Doran is a shitty plotter.  I'm not reaching outside the text for that; it's right there.

What is it? First you argue against my answers about what Doran is doing, because that all sounds to you like a bad plan, as if you expect Doran to be a good planner. And several paragraphs later you say he's a shitty plotter, and I agree with that.

It's like I'm discussing a theory to someone with split pesonality. Make up your mind.

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

I think I've pretty effectively demonstrated why Septa Lemore is unlikely to be Tyene's mother.  

You have not.

 

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

You have to assume Oberyn is keeping it a secret from Doran, despite the text being very clear that Doran and Oberyn have no secrets, and furthermore, that Oberyn is fully aware and an active and important participant in Doran's schemes to restore the Targaryen monarchy.

Third time that you ignore the fact that Oberyn does have secrets from Doran. Doran does not know why Sarella is in Dorne. That is the fact! You can downplay the reason why Doran doesn't know, but if you accept Doran's words about Sarella as truthful then Oberyn didn't tell Doran, by Doran's own admission.

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

With all these conspiracy/hidden identity theories, there are a few pretty simple rules of thumb to dismiss them out of hand or not.   Does it make sense?  In other words, is there something in the text that leads us to believe that said character might not be who they say there are?  Does that character's actions make more sense, or less, if they are in fact someone else?

Your "in other words" has been proven by quotes above: something tin the text leads us to believe that said character might not be who they ssay there.

Does that character's actions make more if they are in fact someone else? If Lemore is Tyene's mother, sent there as an agent by Oberyn, reporting only to him, then YES her actions make sense. Oberyn loved his sister Elia. Aegon would be Elia's son. Tyene's mother would have known Elia, as Tyene was born before Elia was married to Rhaegar. The fact that Doran can tell how Tyene's mother sang for Tyene implies Tyene was born in Dorne. Tyene's mother would love Aegon for House Martell's sake, for the happy times she spent in Dorne, and possibly reuniting him with his Dornish kindred. And while Tyene's mother, a soiled septa of noble blood, could not raise her own bastard daughter in the Reach without shaming her family, she can raise Elia's son (as far as Lemore believes) almost like her own. Tyene's mother is the ideal alternative identity that explains why Lemore would care for Aegon, as Elia's son, as well as function as a resolving character to make Arianne believe it too. She's the sole character that Arianne would know and recognize and whose judgment she would trust, even though Lemore is fooled as much as JonCon is.

Your arguments about Lemore reporting or not reporting back to Doran hinge on Lemore knowing that Doran knows (which is speculative at best), and Doran being trutful to Arianne when he discusses JonCon's letter to Arianne. I can specualte about that, but I cannot give definite answers to that.

6 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

And lastly, though this is less important, is it thematically resonant or does it advance the plot?  For R+L=J, all of these things are true.  It helps clear up a lot of the mystery and inconsistencies surrounding Jon and Ned's actions towards him.  For this Septa Lemore theory, none of them hold up.

Here is the plot of the tWoW exerpt chapters of Arianne

Spoiler

Arianne ponders the issue of Aegon's identity and how she could ever determine whether he's the real deal several times.

Meanwhile JonCon wants an alliance with Dorne, but Arianne is given the power of decision on that by Doran, as Doran and Airanne seek allies to overthrow the Lannisters. JonCon and Aegon will not be the ones able to convince Arianne of the vreacity of their claims. Arianne would require someone who she will trust to be operating in the inrest of Dorne. A duck is a duck. And she met Haldon already and doesn't know Haldon. So, of the original team on the Shy Maid that only leaves Lemore as the person left who plot-wise will convince Arianne that Aegon is Elia's son, regardless of the fact that Lemore is fooled as much as JonCon is, and logistically Lemore is the next person that Arianne is bound to meet at Storm's End, while Aegon and JonCon and the duck are out in the field. So, it must be someone with a connection to Dorne: of the known possible proposed candidates: Ashara (fan fvourite) or Tyene's mother. Ashara left the picture around a time that Arianne would have been too young to remember her. Ashara has otherwise no personal connection to people that Arianne loves in the present. In contrast, Arianne did visit Tyene's mother in the Reach, and thus knows her by sight, even if she dyed her hair. And on top of that, George repeatedly reminds us of Arianne's love for Tyene: her favourite sand snake, the sister she never had, and with whom she grew up side by side, doing everything together, inclduing the same bed. That's how we know that Tyene grew up at Sunspear and not in the Reach. And Arianne adored her uncle Oberyn as much as the sand snakes adored their father.

Now Arianne is a clever woman, but she also tends to trust some people for emotional reasons. That is her weakness. She trusted a certain Dayne who is the most dangerous man of Dorne and of the night, never expecting he'd try to kill Myrcella and she still has not figured out who betrayed her plan to crown Myrcella to Doran. Why does she trust them all, including Dayne? Because she knew them personally. She had a lover's affair once with Dayne (textually implied) and all the others were childhood friends.  So, yes we have precedented characterization of Arianne to believe the word of someone she knows of her past and connected to people she loves.

That is both a thematical and plot-serving identity, and it is the sole identity who Arianne might beleive implicitly on her word, as it plays on all her heart strings. "Just a soiled septa" does not service at all.

As for making it fit retro-actively, that all depends on George. The family visit is one of those things I propose that George can fit into a pro-Dorne plot, by having Lemore explain it as Oberyn requesting her to investigate it, and any type of reporting that Lemore did or did not do will follow from that. Just as he came with the post-explanation of Joffrey being behind the catspaw hired to kill Bran.

[devilish]

Elia, Lewin and most of Dorne's army died defending her rat husband's interest. Oberyn died fighting some random knight on behalf of a Lannister. Quentin died after being burnt into ashes by one of Danny's dragon. Doran's wife is somewhere in Essos and is as useless in terms of alliances as a corpse. Meanwhile if winds of winter chapters had to be believed then Arianne seem to be caught into something way bigger then herself. 

The only thing the Martells seems very good at is dying for the most meaningless of reasons. In terms of IQ they make the Starks look like Newton and Napoleon Bonaparte.  

 

 

[sweetsunray]

16 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Where in the world are you getting that?  As far as I can remember, this is the only info we get on Tyene's mother.

"Your mother was a septa. Oberyn once told me that she read to you in the cradle from the Seven-Pointed Star. 

Granted, that implies my timing is wrong, but there is nothing in there or anything else to suggest what Tyene's mother ends up doing.  Or even if Tyene herself wasn't brought up by her mother, as Obara was.  Merely that the ways of the Faith have been ingrained in Tyene since birth.

And Oberyn does allow his daughters to be raised by their mothers.  Obara, at a minimum, was old enough to be making conscious decisions about her future, which means she must have been older than 4 or 5, likely significantly so.

1 - Thank you, that at least shows that one of your oh so convictions on how it couldn't be Tyene's mother was wrong. Yes, your timing was horribly off.

2 - If Tyene knew her mother for years and years, and was raised by her, she wouldn't need Doran to inform her that her mother was a septa. She'd know it. Furhtermore, Arianne regards Tyene as a sister, one she grew up with and did everything together with. We usually don't regard someone as a sister we grow up with, unless we grew up from infancy alongside of them. Tyene is at most a year younger than Arianne. Arianne's closeness to Tyene stems from being reared together.

Quote

And again, all of this is nice, but isn't actually evidence that Septa Lemore is Tyene's mother.  At the end of the day, none of her or Doran's actions make any sense if she has this hidden identity.  Whereas, everything makes perfect sense if everyone is who they say there are.

Repeatedly insisting that something does not make sense to you because you rely on

a - false arguments

b - actually wrong arguments

c - ignoring text

d - contradict yourself

does not make your insistence worth all that much. But hey, I was the "oblique" one here? lol.

[cpg2016]

12 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Despite your claim that this could not be reasonably kept secret between them, we have evidence that Doran does not know everything that Oberyn did or tried! You completely ignore the example I gave about Sarella in Oldtown. Doran does not know that Sarella is pretending to be a pupil of the Citadel under the name Alleras, and Sarella is not reporting back either.

Wait... you are making two giant leaps here.  First off, who says Alleras/Sarella is anything but a student?  Again, this is exactly what I'm talking about when I say the fandom has a bad habit of assuming a secret motive in everything.  We know she's insatiably curious, why can't she just be a girl who wants to learn, and cannot do so unless she disguises her gender.  Also, Doran is almost certainly aware of what she's up to: Unless she returns to Dorne, there's naught I can do about Sarella save pray that she shows more sense than her sisters. Leave her to her... game. (see "The Captain of the Guards").  Why can't her "game" just be disguising herself as a woman?  Second, we have no evidence at all that Oberyn sent her there on some assignment.  So... this entire line of argument is totally baseless and hinted at to be outright wrong.

12 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Secondly, if she did report back then Doran would still want to send Arianne to Aegon, because Viserys is dead and he'd still want Arianne to make a royal match. Or is it so unprecedented an idea that Doran might keep information to himself from Arianne? Oh, we have years of Doran doing that to his daughter. 

Sure.  But at the moment he has no reason to lie to her.  If she wants her to go marry him, why not say "go scope out your marriage prospects" instead of "verify who it is".  I just don't see how you cut this Gordian logic knot.  If Septa Lemore is Doran's agent, then he knows who Aegon is.  If he doesn't know who Aegon is, there is no logical explanation for what Septa Lemore has been doing this whole time.  Saying "Oberyn kept it secret" is absurd, because Doran has all the political power!  Even IF Sarella is on a secret assignment, and even IF Oberyn knew about it, and even IF Doran doesn't (all three totally baseless at best), that's his daughter getting up to some nonsense, not the end game of a political power move the brothers Martell have been planning for well over a decade.

12 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Of course it makes sense. My point is that she has infiltrated JonCon's team, dyed her hair for years to hide her identity from JonCon and anyone else associated in the Aegon scheme. Just because Aegon lands and outs himself and JonCon sends a letter to Doran asking him to ally with them, the infiltratnt won't expose themselves. She would only do so, once Doran agrees to be an ally. Her revealing herself prior to them becoming allies would make JonCon distrust her and have her lose Aegon's ear.

She HAS to reveal herself at some point.  Beyond which, if she isn't communicating with Doran, then what the hell is the point?  Having Aegon's ear only helps Dorne if she knows what Doran's plans are... which, after almost a decade of being out of the loop, she'll have no idea of.  I mean, JonCon isn't an idiot.  What's the thought process here?  Doran doesn't believe Aegon's claim, so he sends his daughter to verify.  The daughter isn't convinced... but wait, she spoke to the "random" septa with me and all of a sudden she's a believer?  If we presume that Septa Lemore has to reveal herself as Tyene's mother at some point, then when the hell does it matter?  If her job is to verify Aegon's identity, then her moment of maximum utility is before she confirms it, because afterwards, she's just a liar with nothing left to offer.  And even if she never reveals herself and spends her entire remaining life living a lie, she still has little use, because Aegon isn't taking advice from a disgraced septa once he's king.

And what was Doran's plan if Septa Lemore dies or stays behind or any number of misfortunes befall her?  That's it, don't believe in Aegon, sit this one out?  Seems like some pretty terrible planning to me.  

Oh, and by the way, we're all overlooking one important point - why the hell is she in disguise in the first place?  She's a nobody.  JonCon has no clue who she is.  If she's a random soiled septa (as opposed to, say, Ashara Dayne, to quote another theory) there is no reason anyone should know who she is, or that she should have to hide blonde hair.

12 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Because she KNOWS Tyene's mother. And she will learn that the family visit in the Reach was not just a family visit.

Back to the same questions I've already explained and answered. Re-read my previous posts. Not gonna re-hash it all.

It makes complete sense, logically. You simply ignore every answer I've given you and every other behavior of Doran and Oberyn that inconveniences your belief that it cannot be Tyene's mother.

The woman she met once, close on a decade before?  Who now has dyed hair that she can't undye (for the reasons stated above)?  Again, it sort of stretches the bounds of credulity that Arianne will remember a woman she met once, who is in disguise to boot.

12 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

See Alayne Stone. LF does not plan nor expect Sansa to out herself for years, and expects her to dye her hair too in the meantime, without anyone discovering it. And she lives in close quarters too, with servants who normally should be washing and bathing her. Still, Sansa does it herself. So, YES, my argument is that what Sansa is expected to do succesfully for years to come has already been done by Lemore. If George has Sansa (a girl of 13) manage it for months, then yes George can have Lemore manage it for years.

Sansa doesn't manage it for months.  Her roots start showing, all the time, and beyond that, she actively thinks of the difficulty of maintaining her supply of hair dye.  And she has the privacy of a castle with her own rooms and the wealth of the Arryns to get hair dye.  Septa Lemore lives cheek and jowl with a bunch of people who are also dyeing their hair on a regular basis, and not very successfully.  You're telling me our fair septa, in all these years, has never gone one day too long without dyeing her hair?  Is consistently smuggling hair dye on board under the highly suspicious JonCon's nose?  GRRM very baldly lampshades all the problems inherent with maintaining a secret identity in Sansa's case, precisely because it IS so implausible.

12 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

ignoring that Doran explains marriage contracts to Arianne, and that was what Quentyn first proposed, including vouching 50k spears for Dany. Yes, Doran wants the animal-dragons on his side, as allies, but he wants it through a marriage alliance.

Quentyn says his object is dragons; I'm using Barristan as support.  I'm not sure why you think you know better than the explicit thoughts of the characters themselves.  If Septa Lemore said in passing to Tyrion "I have these stretch marks because I gave birth to a Prince of Dorne's love child" I'd be right on board with your Septa Lemore theory; when Quentyn himself says he is in Meereen for dragons, why are you fighting it?  Yes, as I've said, ideally that is with Dany in tow, because she can control them and is a route to the Iron Throne besides.  But Quentyn is clear that he was sent to bring back dragons.  Specifically not Daenerys, but dragons.  How many times must I quote him?

12 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I cited Stepstones and Disputed Lands as a region where there's ALWAYS some war going on. That's the reason why the Disputed Lands are called the Disputed Lands.

Furthermore, nobody, but absolutely nobody, expected Dany to stay put in Mereen. The war that was going on in Slaver's Bay at the time that Doran sends Quentyn is at a time when Dany was succesfully destroying and sacking cities in Slaver's Bay, not Slaver's Bay besetting Dany.

Right, I'm just not sure why talking about the Disputed Lands is material to this discussion.  Quentyn isn't sent there, he's sent to Slaver's Bay.

And all Doran knows is that there is fighting going on in Slaver's Bay.  If his thought is that the fighting will be over and Quentyn will be fine with 4 knights and a maester, that is bad planning!  Not considering any alternative is the definition of bad planning.

12 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Of course it's an analogues situation. Sarella works closely with Marwyn and the ravens. And Lemore has the same issue with not wanting to expose her identity to those she infiltrated at a time when nothing is sure yet. If Lemore is found out to be an agent of Oberyn before an alliance is made between Dorne and Aegon, then she'd be kicked out too or held away from giving counsil to Aegon, who starts to make the decisions more and more.

Well I also hadn't done my homework and had forgotten Sarella works with the ravens.  But even so, Doran knows what Sarella is up to, or has some clue.  We have more evidence that he knows of her secret mission than we do that Oberyn had some knowledge he was keeping secret.

But your assertion here is that Septa Lemore is perfectly capable of smuggling in hair dye and keeping her disguise in place for years, maybe over a decade, but was incapable of sending information back to Doran or Oberyn?  And again, her whole value is in her ability to confirm Aegon's identity for Doran - to the extent she even counsels Aegon (which seems to be not at all, she's a teacher, not a counselor), she can gain more influence, not less, by revealing herself at this point.

12 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Oberyn DID NOT TELL WHY Sarella is in Oldtown either. There is precedent of Oberyn not telling everything to Doran. So, yes, Oberyn could have withheld information from Doran. I already explained why Oberyn could have decided to wait or not tell Doran:

Quote.  The leap you are making is illogical.  Not impossible, but it goes against everything we know about these characters, and even some of the quotes by the characters themselves (Doran knows Sarella is up to something, he just doesn't specify).  So back it up.

13 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Later when Lemore confirms that JonCon hired her to teach this young child in the Faith, Oberyn could still decide to keep the knowledge to himself, for Aegon is still a young child, living on a boat and anything may befall him. Why tell his brother that Aegon survived when he still might die accidentally or of some child disease, when part of Aegon's survival hinges on as few people knowing about it. This is consistent with Lemore's fears to out Aegon to the whole of the GC, despite him being off age already.

Because Doran and Oberyn work "more closely than [we] know".  Why is Oberyn actively undermining Doran's ability to plan and plot for his family's re-ascendance?  Again, this goes against everything we know about the character.  You've entirely fabricated this instance where not only did Oberyn actively send Sarella to Oldtown, but also didn't tell Doran (if I have overlooked a relevant quote, please inform me).

13 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

After keepig it secret for so many years, you might as well keep it a secret, until the time comes to include Doran in the knowledge. And the only possible time for that comes when Oberyn decides to take up Tywin's invitation to sit on the council of KL. But since he did not disclose even Sarella's mission to Doran at that time, it's possible he still didn't inform Doran.

This isn't how this shit works!  If the knowledge is relevant, Oberyn should share it with Doran.  If he doesn't, come up with a plausible reason why beyond "he kept it secret so long that he decided to keep it secret longer".  And again, I'll say it every time, not only does Doran know about Sarella being in Dorne and having some kind of secret thing going on (which... again, could just be her disguise), we have no evidence that I've seen that Oberyn sent her and kept it secret from Doran.

13 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

1. Doran himself may have decided at some point that the less he actually knows of what Oberyn is up to, the better. It's the only way that Doran can deny responsibility.

Oberyn is very much portrayed as a man who did things his own way. Doran and Oberyn had the same goal in mind, but do disagree on how to achieve it. Both men knew and accepted their differences in responsibility and freedom to act.

First off, Doran is already plotting to overthrow the Iron Throne.  The entire concept of plausible deniability is useless, because Doran has already committed Dorne to rebellion, on paper, so why should he not be aware of an even more secret, and more plausibly deniable plot?  It just doesn't make sense.

13 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

a - we have no actual evidence that she didn't write back once she landed in Westeros, and even if she didn't there may be valid reasons for it. Such as reporting back only to Oberyn and her learning that he's dead from the maester reports lying around in the rookeries of every castle the GC conquers.

You cannot ask me to prove a negative, and you can't base an argument on it, either.  We have no evidence she wrote, and we know for sure that she didn't write to Doran.  Again, this all stinks of shitty plotting.

13 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

possible for the same reason he intended to send his daughter to be a cupbearer in Tyrosh - betrothal. Except in this case, there is no betrothal contract. Arianne has proven herself to be one who won't be accepting a husband just because her father tells her, and JonCon may want Dornish spears without a marriage deal. And young men of 18 who are conquering a kingdom successfully will not easily commit and honor a marriage contract, unless they can get a look at the potential bride. Since Arianne can seduce a committed KG, she's up for the task to seduce Aegon without her father telling her. Doran could expect other houses to try and make similar deals, especially Mace Tyrell, now that the Tyrell-Lannister alliance has gone extremely sour. Even if Doran only suspects Aegon to be the real thing, without actual confirmation yet, that still would be the reason why Doran sent Arianne as his emissary. Have boy meets girl especially when boy want girl's spears. 

Oh, I actually agree with this.  I don't think Doran told Arianne to marry Aegon, I think he said "go check this out and report back" and hoped that sparks would fly and he'd get his marriage alliance after all.

But again, all this means Lemore almost certainly isn't Tyene's mother.  Otherwise, he'd tell her to contact their inside woman, a.k.a. Septa Lemore a.k.a. her beloved cousin Tyene's mother.  It doesn't make sense that he wouldn't say something, and any theory with that gaping of a logical hole is a bad theory.

13 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

You seem to seriously have an issue with "war zones". You assume that no Westerosi ruler of a great house would send his adult children into war zones.

Seriously?  You don't understand the difference of Robb Stark, say, riding to battle with thousands of men at his back and the prospect of allies ahead, with either (a) sending your son to a place where he doesn't speak the language or know the customs, with 4 retainers, despite the whole point being to show why Dorne is a powerful ally worth marrying into, or (b) and a hotheaded young woman being sent into a place where battles are actively taking place and vicious reprisals by the existing regime can be expected?  In both cases, it is stupid.  In both cases, he should be sending an actual diplomatic delegation, which would far better serve his ends.  Show the power and glory of Dorne, for the same reason powerful nobles show up with retainers in every other instance in the novels.  His unwillingness to chance the risk involved is exactly why he's a bad plotter - he's afraid of revealing himself, so afraid that he won't take necessary risks, and as a result his plans backfire.  Quentyn's death can be almost directly traced back to Doran's unwillingness to provide him with support or a ship.

13 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

And yet, he sent Quentyn to Yronwood (a house notoriously known to not be 100% pro-Martell) as a cupbearer, when he was still a very young child.

Right, because he's trusting that guest right will hold, which in the overwhelmingly huge percentage of cases, it does.  He's basically fostering Quentyn with the Martells; he's not a hostage, it's a sign of goodwill.  You are way off base on this.

13 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I'm not struggling to answer these questions. You're just struggling to consider them, even when there is precedent. You are making it more convulated than necessary and arguing first one thing, to then say the opposite.

You've been pretty light on the whole "precedent" part.  So far, all I've heard is that Oberyn sent Sarella to monitor glass candles in Oldtown and then deliberately kept it from Doran.  Every part of that argument is thus far unsubstantiated.

13 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Only in the characterization as you cling to it, while ignoring evidence to the contrary.

Thus far I'm the only one providing quotes.  And looking at the last couple pages of post, that is literal - you provided one quote, it looks like, and only in this last post, and even then it's barely relevant to proving your point.  Why in the world should I accept any argument of yours when you don't back it up?  At least I've got textual evidence behind me.

13 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

No, it doesn't make perfect sense if she's just a randomly soiled septa, for a randomly soiled septa wouldn't point out to Tyrion that she too needs to go about in cities without risking being recognized. She allows Tyrion, the reader and JonCon at least that much insight - something about her in a septa robe is recognizable, even in Essos. But she has them believe it's simply a personal irrelevant secret.

The only characters on the Shy Maid who are who they say there is Ser Rolly Duckfield and the Rhoynish "Children" poling the boat.

Seriously?  Did you read the books?

Lemore gave him a reproachful look. "That is because you have a wicked soul. Septa's robes scream of Westeros and might draw unwelcome eyes onto us." She turned back to Prince Aegon. "You are not the only one who must needs hide."

We are explicitly told why she isn't wearing her septa's robe.

13 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I do not entirely disagree that Doran has info to fear her turning against a fellow Targ, but she also never became a conqueror long after Viserys was dead. She married a khal for Viserys. This is known too. And when there are only two Targaryens left in the whole world, it's not logical to expect those Targs to rather fight each other than form an alliance. Even Tyrion does not expect that, nor do JonCon or the GC.

Right, but Viserys is her brother.  She's known her whole life Viserys will be king, and all that time she's been a frightened runaway.  Now she's a conqueror, a queen, one who has achieved all this in the face of the world thrown against her.  Not to get into her head, but her situation between A Game of Thrones and Winds of Winter is night and day.  As I said, Doran knows almost nothing about Daenerys, except that she watched (maybe even helped, if rumors are true) her brother die horribly, and then became the greatest conqueror in Essos.  Everything about that story screams "might be the side of the Targaryen coin that is violently mad".  I'm not saying it's logical to expect them to fight to the death.  But it IS logical to assume that Dany isn't just going to set aside her claim to the throne; she has ALL the power in the fAegon/Dany power dynamic.

13 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

And you assume in the above argument that Doran is a good-plotter but already pointed out some of his failings: Quentyn only gets a small escort, putting him into logistical problems in Volantis when it's clear that Dany is still staying in Mereen. He allowed Oberyn to go to KL when he knew he was out on revenge against the Mountain and Tywin. 

I think Doran is a terrible plotter.  I know we're a little off topic, but isn't that what we're trying to prove here?  That is what I'm trying to prove.  Doran is too concerned with the children of Dorne (metaphorically speaking) to be an effective plotter; he won't risk anything, so he gains nothing.

13 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Now for the few chapters we have in Dorne, Tyene's mother and Tyene herself are mentioned quite a lot. Except we never learn the name of Tyene's mother. Oh and there is of course this ironic parallel of Tyene herself being sent to infiltrate King's Landing and the High Sparrows as a septa.

So why is she in disguise?  She's a random septa who happens to be Tyene's mother, a person that JonCon and crew don't even know exists, and yet... she's dyeing her hair?  At great danger to herself?

13 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

But in the same chapter where Haldon does his pretense pissing against the wind, we also have a focus on Lemore, and the chapter ends with Tyrion discovering Young Griff's supposed identity: Aegon. The chapter is all about mystery identity.

All of this is plausible, which I said before we started debating this.  But there is a long way to go from "these characters might be hiding identities" to "this is the identity of this character".

13 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Since you deny that George wants us to consider that Lemore may be someone with a connection or hidden idenity, while it is so obviously within the text, that is enough evidence to me that I'm not talking to someone who wants to discuss this reasonably, but is preconceived and in denial of actual text.

I'm not denying that at all.  I'm denying that GRRM springs surprises on us that we cannot at least plausibly guess beforehand.  We've been hearing about how no one could recognize Aegon's face from Book 1, so we're primed to be receptive to the idea that maybe he's wandering around in a secret identity (or, more likely, being impersonated).

The burden of proof isn't on me to definitively show Septa Lemore isn't Tyene Sand's mother.  It's on you to show she is.  I've pointed out a number of logical inconsistencies in your theory, and your answer has been "Oberyn kept her secret for no apparent reason and never bothered to check in with her.  And she won't reveal herself now because she'll never be a trusted counselor again to Aegon, despite not being valued advisor at the moment and all her value to JonCon coming from the very fact that she can bring Dorne into the fold".

13 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Third time that you ignore the fact that Oberyn does have secrets from Doran. Doran does not know why Sarella is in Dorne. That is the fact! You can downplay the reason why Doran doesn't know, but if you accept Doran's words about Sarella as truthful then Oberyn didn't tell Doran, by Doran's own admission.

And this is the third time I'll tell you that Doran does know Sarella is up to something in Dorne, and that ellipsis is highly revealing that he knows a LOT more than he says; why else pause and reconsider your words?  And, incidentally, the third time I'll point out that you have not a shred of evidence that (a) Sarella is up to anything crazy, (b) that Oberyn sent her, or (c) that he didn't tell Doran.

13 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

If Lemore is Tyene's mother, sent there as an agent by Oberyn, reporting only to him, then YES her actions make sense.

But Oberyn's don't.  You haven't yet established a single occasion in which Oberyn has mislead his brother about their mutual dynastic ambitions.

6 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

If Tyene knew her mother for years and years, and was raised by her, she wouldn't need Doran to inform her that her mother was a septa. She'd know it.

Whoa whoa whoa.  Who is to say she didn't?  Doran is explaining his scheme, and the reasoning behind it, when he says: "Your mother was a septa. Oberyn once told me that she read to you in the cradle from the Seven-Pointed Star. I want you in King's Landing too, but on the other hill. The Swords and the Stars have been re-formed, and this new High Septon is not the puppet that the others were. Try and get close to him." That isn't necessarily him imparting biographical information, it's him explaining why he wants Tyene to go to Kings Landing and what he role will be.  Obviously Tyene knows a great deal about the Faith already, or Doran wouldn't be able to trust her to do her job properly.  You are making a truly massive leap, there; have you never repeated something to someone that they already knew, to drive home a point or an explanation?  Besides which, the other Sand Snakes know about their mother; the strong implication is that Lady Nym has had more political training than her sisters, because her mother was a noble.  Tyene has religious training, because her mother was a septa.  Obara was given a choice between tears and spears, and chose the latter, so she gets to hunt Darkstar.  Why Tyene should be the one person to not know her mother was a septa, when she's the one person who's actually seen her mother since Oberyn took her in, is.... confusing?

14 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

That is both a thematical and plot-serving identity, and it is the sole identity who Arianne might beleive implicitly on her word, as it plays on all her heart strings. "Just a soiled septa" does not service at all.

All that may be as it may, and it's one of the reasons why Septa Lemore being Tyene's mother is more plausible than most "hidden identity" theories, but it still doesn't make sense logically.

Again, your entire argument is built upon the bedrock that Oberyn deliberately keeps secrets from Doran, and that this is one of them.  But you haven't actually proven this.  If you can show somewhere that Oberyn is deliberately hiding things from his brother, I'd be much more willing to accept this line of argument.  Otherwise... the whole thing just reeks of bad plotting and logic loopholes.

Again, I am not aiming to claim that there is NO possibility that Lemore isn't Tyene's mother - even if I could prove a negative, that isn't the point.  I just don't think it is likely, for the many logical reasons I've pointed out (and, again, none of which you have refuted except with a baseless claim that Oberyn is being a bad boy).

And moreover, it makes the whole Dornish plot make no sense.  Why is Doran or Oberyn so openly (relatively speaking) pledging support to Viserys, when they know the true heir to the throne is Aegon?  If they don't know about Aegon from the get-go, how the hell do they find out what is arguably the best kept secret in the world?  And why does Varys, who is almost certainly screening everyone on board the Shy Maid, allow Septa Lemore-Tyene's Mother on board?  If he's handpicking her, certainly he knows a little of her background, and is Doran/Oberyn's whole plan dependent on her being the one spoiled septa in the entire Seven Kingdoms he picks?  If Arianne is going to recognize Tyene's mom anyway, why does Doran play so coy about it and not mention it to her so she's at least on the lookout?  He's already trusting her to go and verify Aegon's identity, a supremely important mission - why not empower her with the knowledge she needs?  In this case, it isn't even reflective of unnecessary caution - it's a stupid plot hold with no viable explanation.

7 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

does not make your insistence worth all that much. But hey, I was the "oblique" one here? lol.

Okay, you've got to get off this, you're embarrassing yourself.  You don't know what this word means in context, so stop harping on it.  It isn't an insult, it isn't meant to say you are wrong.  It's a simple word to look up in a dictionary, and your insistence on treating it as an insult make you sound less intelligent.

7 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

c - ignoring text

I'm not buying you're interpretation of the text - for example, I might point out that Tyrion, in addition to thinking Septa Lemore has a secret identity, also never mentions the color of her eyes, meaning Ashara Dayne is still on the table.  And the rest of her actions make far more sense if she's a secret Dayne.

Plus, you have quoted ONE instance of text, and moreover, have consistently fought me that a character's explicit quote about what they are doing (Quentyn re: dragons) means something else.

7 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

b - actually wrong arguments

So have you.

7 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

d - contradict yourself

Quote or it didn't happen.  The whole "Doran is a shitty plotter" isn't a contradiction - if you are trying to support your argument by saying that Doran is a terrible plotter, and therefore will organize a plan than makes no sense, then... that is a really weak argument that supports ANY crazy stupid theory.

I believe Doran is a shitty plotter for the simple reason that he is.  He constantly creates plans that fail miserably, and is too cautious to give his tools the resources they need to succeed.  That he does so for the very commendable reason that he's afraid of bringing war to his people is immaterial.

7 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

a - false arguments

Such as what?  You've jumped to conclusions about certain of my arguments (for example, that Tyrion would have seen Septa Lemore's hair dye coming out in the river), which isn't the same as them having been a false argument (since my intent was to say he should have seen her redyeing her hair; as you say, she's gotta rinse that dye out somewhere, and it's a little bit of a stretch to believe that no one has noticed her roots even once, or noticed her bringing a bowl of water with dye in it outside despite bathing every morning).

To conclude, this is your basic narrative, as I read it.  Oberyn, but not Doran, is aware of fAegon's supposed identity (how does he find out?  Why doesn't he tell his big brother, whom he is plotting a Targaryen restoration with?).  He wants to quietly confirm this without committing his brother to rebellion against the Iron Throne just yet, so they slip a septa in among his teachers (how?  Varys is picking all of these men and women by hand, for certain, so how can they know he'll choose Mrs. Tyene?  Or not figure out her background).  This septa has orders to observe Aegon and make sure he's the real deal (despite Oberyn knowing that Mrs. Tyene has no way of actually verifying this) so that in a decade, she can confirm it in person to Oberyn or Arianne or, presumably, Tyene.  She is under strict orders not to communicate (or, if she's allowed to, Oberyn doesn't share this vital intel with Doran).  So her entire role is dependent on one of Tyene, Obara, Nymeria, Arianne, or Oberyn being the one sent to confirm Aegon's identity in person, after which she will live the rest of her life hiding in plain sight as an adviser of Aegon's, despite being in the presence of multiple people who might give her away (same crew as above).  And this holds, even if she is in a position to confirm all this via raven.  Oh, and of course, Oberyn makes no backup plan in case something happens to him, for her to contact anyone else.

Is that right?

[sweetsunray]

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Again, this is exactly what I'm talking about when I say the fandom has a bad habit of assuming a secret motive in everything. 

What you call a "bad habit" I consider a valid habit given enough circumstantial evidence from the text. BTW I think the crow calling the raven black is appropriate here, given you assume that Doran instructed Quentyn to fetch a dragon-animal for Dorne, with or without Dany. I don't buy it, but I can see how you came to that assumption. Unlike you however I don't criticise you for being an annoying fan theorist who assumes too much or motive in "everything".

And for this reason, I think you and I have nothing else to say to each other anymore. Just a quick glance at your post I see that you reiterate questions again that I answered already. I have better things to do than debate with people who are so eager to point the finger for doing the same thing they do themselves in other instances, who twist and turn and reiterate questions that I already answered, but are wilfully not trying to understand what I try to say because of a pre-conception. My time is better deployed on reading the text and writing literary analysis from which sometimes theories and predictions are born than repeating myself, only because you seem have selective memory on what I've been very patiently writing you as answers.

I don't mind debate and discussion, questions and criticism, as long as it is productive. But this has become non-productive as it has become completely repetitive, and actually does nothing to tweak my ideas or opinions, which is exactly what I seek in debate.

Goodday, sir.

[The Sleeper]

On 2/8/2017 at 1:38 AM, cpg2016 said:

snip

Doran did not sign any pact with the Sealord. Oberyn signed a pact with Darry who was acting as Viserys's guardian. The Sealord was a witness, nothing more.

We have an example of Oberyn acting against Doran's wishes in the books. Oberyn planned to crown Myrcela. We know Doran did not approve because he actually stopped this scheme. That puts the veracity of Doran's claim that he was working with Oberyn into question. At the very least it makes abundantly clear that Oberyn was willing to overstep his mandate and defy his brothers authority, making major decisions on behalf of Dorne.

The pact is the same sort of deal. It is a decision that commits Dorne to rebellion. As Oberyn did something like this in the future, it stands to reason that he had acted unilaterally before.

Now assume that Doran indeed had no knowledge or intention to pursue such a pact. He cannot deny it as it was witnessed by the head of a major third party. If he refutes it, that makes Oberyn a rebel not only to the Iron Throne but to Doran himself. His own brother acting regardless of his own wishes and designs is a major blow to his authority in itself, nor can he escape responsibility entirely as Oberyn is a junior member of his house. The appropriate punishment for Oberyn would be execution or taking the black. Yet considering his popularity, his support among the nobles and popular feeling in Dorne, he was looking at full blown rebellion.

And if he pursues it, he is set to face the rest of the seven kingdoms in open war.

That would put his actions or lack of them in a different light wouldn't it?

[Free folk Daemon]

On 08/09/2017 at 5:22 AM, Lew Theobald said:

You're probably overlooking Baby Aegon.  No doubt, Doran knows more about it than he lets on.

You believe Doran knew what exactly about baby Aegon?