What if Jaime never killed Aerys?

[UFT]

for whatever reason, he never finds out about the plot to burn down king's landing. he dies with the city along with tywin. 

lets say the PoD is aerys keeps it to his inner circle of himself and the pyromancer and jaime never finds out until its far too late. 

what happens to westeros? what happens to the rebellion?

 

 

[Shi Qiang]

Robert and Jon Arryn were too far to die from the blast.  The Lannisters would perish but they were not important players in the rebellion anyway.  400 thousand people will have died and K-L would have burned.  But Robert would still become king.  King Viserys III will still be known as the beggar king.  Daenerys will still be born and the dragons will hatch. 

Net effect will be a weakened House of Lannister.  A power vacuum in the west.  All of the royal treasury would have burned. 

[TMIFairy]

I beg to differ.

The effects of KL's destruction in such a scenario are IMO massive.

1 - IMO the Seven Kingdoms would break up. There is no power/wealth concentrated in KL any more. The symbol of central power is no more. I imagine the Crownlands being divided between the Riverlands and Stormlands, with the Targs on Dragonstone being left to wither on the vine. A revertion to the state of affairs at the Conquest.

2 - Viserys, Rhealla (if she survives) and Daenerys are no threat. Their support is dispersed across a few houses in the Riverlands and Stormlands. The Dorne has no interest in backing them. The Reach - well, they could. But would they? Back Viserys for ... for what? There is no Iron Throne. There is no KL as power base. So, why bother? Unless it is a power play for a Tyrell led Seven Kingdoms. But such an effort can only take place once Ned and his army returns North. Or only once the Four Kingdom Block  built around Hoster's daughters and Jon Arryn's foster boys dissolves ...

3 - indeed, the army of the Westerlands is wiped out. All houses lose lords and/or heirs. Great reshuffling and weakening until the new generation grows up, new Houses are established. Top of mind example - House Clegane is extinct. More importantly House Lannister looses all adult male members. Tyrion is Lord, with Genna as Regent. With Cersei in the wings ... see in how many ways that can go wrong? For several years at least the Westerlands - regardless of who is at the helm - are out of the Game. But that is one of the lesser effects ...

 

4 - the Big Fire also eliminates or butterflies away two of the key players behind the shitstorm breaking out in 298AC - Varys and Petyr. One is dead while the other has no means of acquiring such wealth and power he had in canon.

[Ice Walker]

@TMIFairy They could just create a new capital. Storm's End or Dragonstone or even build a new Keep. I doubt Robert would be interested in any of that but he has already been accepted as King by three kingdoms and the Riverlands. Reach is very likely to bend the knee anyway.

Tywin took 12000 men from the Westerlands, which is like 20-30% of their army. It would weaken the position of Lannisters within the new setup but Cersei will still be a good match for Robert. She is the only one available from the major houses anyway. Westerlands have the gold and Robert will need it more than ever.

[TMIFairy]

Oh, I thought that Tywin had more men. Still, the top men of Westerlands are dead.

I will stick to my opinion - the United Seven Kingdoms will unravel - either immediately or incrimentally.

There is no money and no power to fund a new capital. Robert could set up shop in Duskendale - a location as good as KL to rule Westeros. But IMO the "continuity" of the united Realm had been broken. The Gang of Four was putting Robert forward for the throne because there WAS one. With the throne gone - symbolically consumed by fire, and fire was which had built the realm in the first place - there is no reason to bend the knee to Robert.

But even if the others did set up Robert as King, I do not see such a realm lasting long.

BTW - I agree that Cersei is a good match, for Robert or anybody else. But I would not rule out Genna and Cersei fighting for power at the Rock, ostensibly vying for the posiiton of Regent for Tyrion. If Cersei wins she'd send her aunt away and probably quietly get rid of Tyrion.

[bent branch]

I'm convinced that not much of anything would have happened. Jaime had already killed the Pyromancer Hand (Rossart?) so the order to light the wildfire couldn't be given. Pretty sure Jaime killed Aerys just because he hated him. Oh, and Jaime still hasn't revealed everything about that day. He shouldn't have been wearing gold armor. That's a clue.

 

[UFT]

55 minutes ago, bent branch said:

I'm convinced that not much of anything would have happened. Jaime had already killed the Pyromancer Hand (Rossart?) so the order to light the wildfire couldn't be given. Pretty sure Jaime killed Aerys just because he hated him. Oh, and Jaime still hasn't revealed everything about that day. He shouldn't have been wearing gold armor. That's a clue.

 

i said that the scenario is jaime never finds out

[elder brother jonothor dar]

In this scenario the key player is the Tyrell, without Lannister backing do they bend the knee to Robert or see opportunity to smash the only army left in the field and set their own terms

[TMIFairy]

15 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

In this scenario the key player is the Tyrell, without Lannister backing do they bend the knee to Robert or see opportunity to smash the only army left in the field and set their own terms

Yes, Mace Tyrell could make a play for Supreme Kingship.

It would be the Reach against the Gang of Four - let speculations begin!

But IIRC the Ironborn were already nibbling at his arse, so to speak ... he would have to split his forces ...

And IMO it would really be the Reach versus the Gang of Four+Ironborn - the Westerlands have a power vacuum (?) while Dorne would sit this out.  Dorna has nothing to gain from jumping in. He has no sister to avenge - killed by a fire which ca be attributed to Aerys - or Twyin - or an accident. In the former two cases - both are dead.

So, does Mace risk being King of Westeros versus declaring himself King of the Reach, Tower and Arbor? I really do not think that Jon or Ned would care that much.

Hoster - if Mace offers a Tyrell bride for Edmure ...

[bent branch]

3 hours ago, UFT said:

i said that the scenario is jaime never finds out

I think the point I was trying to make was that Jaime already intended to betray Aerys. That's why he wore the gold armor. So I'm not sure anything would be different. Unless, of course, he didn't kill Rossart first. But I will bow out since you want to discuss what would happen if KL went up.

[Denam_Pavel]

The Rebellion marches southwards to Storm's End, Mace Tyrell most certainly would surrender, with the castle held against him and an army at his back. Stannis again gets the task of conquering Dragonstone, the business of Elia's children no longer divides Robert and Ned, Robert has much less of in the way of a court to put in order anyway. Instead of just seven men arriving at the Tower of Joy, Robert comes along, probably with a retinue of knights and lords. The White Bull, the Sword of Morning and Oswell Whent either commit themselves to a completely suicidal charge into their swords or share Barristan's fate. The whole world quickly knows about Jon, while young Viserys will have erroneously have crowned himself already and be turned into the rebel holdout instead. Robert's actions are a big question mark here. I rather doubt he can kill kids in Lyanna and Ned's presence, but he'd be angry and disgusted. Mace Tyrell would probably support Jon, as would Ned, and the Kingsguard with him (though that might just be Barristan) adding legitimacy. I'd say this party would win out and Hand-Regent Jon Arryn or Ned Stark would find themselves charged with the task of reshaping the Seven Kingdoms now sans King's Landing. The only seemingly realistic place would seem to be Harrenhal (especially since Storm's End will seem a incredibly uninviting place between a Stannis fresh out of a war against Targaryans and Robert without a crown). The curse will do for the new Hand and the boy king and that will be that for the Seven Kingdoms. Robert will return to conquering, the Crownlands, Dragonstone and Riverlands being ripe for the picking. Balon will act as well, burn the fleet at Lannisport and find little in the way of retaliation to a war against the Westerlands. If the North marches south to help Roose Bolton will smell weakness and start making moves. It'd be anyone's game after that (though Doran will just stay out of it).

[cpg2016]

17 hours ago, TMIFairy said:

The Dorne has no interest in backing them. The Reach - well, they could. But would they? Back Viserys for ... for what? There is no Iron Throne.

Dorne does have an interest in backing them, because Doran is still uncle to a couple of very highly placed claimants to the defunct Iron Throne.  The Tyrells will also have an interest in backing them (and remember, Mace is still lurking with an army outside Storm's End) for the same reason they supported Aerys in the first place - they need the legitimacy within the Reach that a close tie to the throne gives them.

1 hour ago, Denam_Pavel said:

Robert's actions are a big question mark here. I rather doubt he can kill kids in Lyanna and Ned's presence, but he'd be angry and disgusted. Mace Tyrell would probably support Jon, as would Ned, and the Kingsguard with him (though that might just be Barristan) adding legitimacy.

Well this is an interesting question, because letting Jon live is a direct threat to Robert's throne, as he has an excellent blood claim (despite being a bastard) and isn't a powerless exile a la Dany and Viserys.  And Lyanna is already dead, so it doesn't matter about her presence.

 

1 hour ago, Denam_Pavel said:

It'd be anyone's game after that (though Doran will just stay out of it).

Why is Doran staying out of it?  Why would his motives be any different than IOTL?  He'll be plotting to put Rhaenys or Aegon on the throne right away.

 

1 hour ago, Denam_Pavel said:

The only seemingly realistic place would seem to be Harrenhal (especially since Storm's End will seem a incredibly uninviting place between a Stannis fresh out of a war against Targaryans and Robert without a crown).

Why would Storm's End be uninviting?  They'll spend a weak cleaning up and it'll look brand new.

 

The truth is, if Kings Landing goes boom, it almost certain that the monarchy does too.  Without Kings Landing, there is no central government, and the politics of the Seven Kingdoms makes it infeasible to relocate the capital anywhere else.  The dragons bound Westeros together, and inertia kept it that way after the last dragon died.  The wildfire explosion is exactly the kind of dislocation which interrupts that inertia. We know Ned isn't interested in playing the political power game for the sake of Robert's throne; he fought because he had to.  He's going home.  And the Vale, the Riverlands, and the Stormlands aren't enough to compel the other four kingdoms to stick around - it only ever worked for the Targaryens because if one region seceded, there were six (technically 8) other power blocs that would be hungry to help put down the rebellion and gain favor.  If you've got more than half the kingdoms ready to go anyway, the center'll never hold.  And I'll bet hard cash that this is exactly what happens in WoW and aDoS; Dany finds the mummers dragon ruling in KL, attacks with Drogon, and sets off the still-hidden wildfire, and post the Long Night, the Seven Kingdoms revert back into independent polities.

[Denam_Pavel]

15 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Well this is an interesting question, because letting Jon live is a direct threat to Robert's throne, as he has an excellent blood claim (despite being a bastard) and isn't a powerless exile a la Dany and Viserys.  And Lyanna is already dead, so it doesn't matter about her presence.

 

Lyanna is alive when Ned first arrived, and will be alive here too. Baby Jon only needs to survive his first meeting with Robert to become king.

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Why is Doran staying out of it?  Why would his motives be any different than IOTL?  He'll be plotting to put Rhaenys or Aegon on the throne right away.

This topic is about what if Aerys succeeded in his wildfire plot. Rhaenys is dead, Aegon is dead, Varys is dead and Jon Connington nor anyone else is ever led to believe otherwise. Doran is too cautious to blindly join a free-for-all. The Red Viper still crippled Mace Tyrell's heir, he won't be making common cause with the Reach without the Targaryans ruling over them, holding onto any territory they conquer thus seems like a costly affair. Keep in mind, the Reach's army stayed at the Storm's End siege and likely survive the war. The Dornish army Prince Lewyn Martell headed up still gets destroyed. Dorne isn't holding a particularly strong hand in the timeperiod immediately after the Rebellion.

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Why would Storm's End be uninviting?  They'll spend a weak cleaning up and it'll look brand new.

On account of Robert being a bomb waiting to go off and Stannis, never one for half-measures being in no mood to forgive anyone who surrendered from the other side. Robert was the one that talked him down. This history would feature Robert in a very different mood.

[cpg2016]

1 hour ago, Denam_Pavel said:

Lyanna is alive when Ned first arrived, and will be alive here too. Baby Jon only needs to survive his first meeting with Robert to become king.

Right, my point is that Lyanna dies in childbirth; nothing would change about that.  And it's highly debatable whether Lyanna would be alive.  Travelling with even a few more people, or waiting an extra few seconds to motivate and set out, means Lyanna dies before they get there.

1 hour ago, Denam_Pavel said:

This topic is about what if Aerys succeeded in his wildfire plot. Rhaenys is dead, Aegon is dead, Varys is dead and Jon Connington nor anyone else is ever led to believe otherwise. Doran is too cautious to blindly join a free-for-all.

Yeah that's my mistake. But the point still stands.  Doran does exactly as he does IOTL, because his position is essentially unchanged.  He still wants to regain the power and influence he lost, and child-Viserys and baby-Daenerys are still his best bets.

1 hour ago, Denam_Pavel said:

On account of Robert being a bomb waiting to go off and Stannis, never one for half-measures being in no mood to forgive anyone who surrendered from the other side. Robert was the one that talked him down. This history would feature Robert in a very different mood.

But I'm still not sure why this makes Storm's End, the location, a bad place?  Wherever the new capital is, Stannis and Robert will be, so... what's the difference?  Except that a new, explicitly Baratheon dynasty is going to be likely to want to put their capital where their power base is.

Now, there are some downsides to Storm's End, namely it doesn't have a port and isn't on a major trade route, and so will never grow into a true city, but there is no reason Harrenhall is any better.

[TMIFairy]

I agree to Storm's End being a poor location for a capital. Poor land links to the rest of the continent. Something on or near the Blackwater Rush - Duskendale, maybe Rosby (if there is a port nearby) - would be much better.

If RLJ the brat still has no claim - he is a bastard. And whom Ned will take North and raise in Winterfell as a Stark. To end speculation a good move would be legitimising the bastard as a Stark.

[Denam_Pavel]

9 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

Right, my point is that Lyanna dies in childbirth; nothing would change about that.  And it's highly debatable whether Lyanna would be alive.  Travelling with even a few more people, or waiting an extra few seconds to motivate and set out, means Lyanna dies before they get there.

Yeah, if Jon is born and Lyanna dies before then I'd say the three Kingsguard and their new charge take off for Srarfall or High Hermitage and they all die in bloody siege by Robert whose avenging Lyanna's death and we'd get an even bigger break between Robert and Ned.

Main difference then is Ned coming North alone and not taking in Theon after the Greyjoy Rebellion either (maybe Jorah stays Lord with no sourthern wife). Tywin or Jaime become Hand after Jon Arryn. 

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Yeah that's my mistake. But the point still stands.  Doran does exactly as he does IOTL, because his position is essentially unchanged.  He still wants to regain the power and influence he lost, and child-Viserys and baby-Daenerys are still his best bets.

Doran didn't just want power and influence, he wanted revenge (and Red Viper only agreed to stay dormant out of promise of the same too), here that factor is gone. And if the Seven Kingdoms split up entirely, Targaryan stop being such a promising horse to bet on. Going to war over them when he's got Randyll Tarly and young Robert Baratheon with stronger armies at their command respectively as his first hurdles in expansion isn't something I see Doran Martell ever committing too. He'd wait years for a good opportunity to present itself.

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But I'm still not sure why this makes Storm's End, the location, a bad place?  Wherever the new capital is, Stannis and Robert will be, so... what's the difference?  Except that a new, explicitly Baratheon dynasty is going to be likely to want to put their capital where their power base is.

Now, there are some downsides to Storm's End, namely it doesn't have a port and isn't on a major trade route, and so will never grow into a true city, but there is no reason Harrenhall is any better.

Stannis barely visited his own castle because he was sick of his wife and he was Master of Ships and wroth he got Dragonstone instead of Storm's End, if none of those things are the case, I don't see Stannis following the court anywhere it's based. I don't think Robert would make himself a premanent fixture of Rhaegar's son's court either. And Harrenhal is a central location built with it as the seat of a King in mind, there's a reason it placed a big role in the Dance of Dragons and War of Five Kings. As a replacement for King's Landing, Harrenhal has the presence that Duskendale or Rosby utterly lack.

[TMIFairy]

9 minutes ago, Denam_Pavel said:

 As a replacement for King's Landing, Harrenhal has the presence that Duskendale or Rosby utterly lack.

True.

But it is in the Riverlands and not Crownlands - no problem?

 

[Denam_Pavel]

Just now, TMIFairy said:

True.

But it is in the Riverlands and not Crownlands - no problem?

 

The Crownlands existed to feed King's Landing, they should think up a new configuration for that area anyway.

[GyantSpyder]

The closest historical parallel might be the Fourth Crusade, when the Crusaders sacked Constantinople. It would be 250 years before the Empire vanished entirely, but it became fragmented as different players were able to carve out pieces of it, and it became more vulnerable to external exploitation and conquest.

At some point, you would expect the Golden Company to invade again, but it seems exceedingly unlikely they would be able to create territorial integrity for all of Westeros. Like you might end up with a new Golden Throne at Duskendale, with Bittersteel's skull on it, but it might not even be able to control the whole Trident, let alone the whole country.

It seems like the individual kingdoms would be back on their own - or at least much more autonomous - and maybe you'd see confederations between some of them - like maybe the Reach and Stormlands combine into one country and take over much of the Westerlands - but it would probably be messy until some new paradigm emerged.

[cpg2016]

4 hours ago, Denam_Pavel said:

Doran didn't just want power and influence, he wanted revenge (and Red Viper only agreed to stay dormant out of promise of the same too), here that factor is gone. And if the Seven Kingdoms split up entirely, Targaryan stop being such a promising horse to bet on. Going to war over them when he's got Randyll Tarly and young Robert Baratheon with stronger armies at their command respectively as his first hurdles in expansion isn't something I see Doran Martell ever committing too. He'd wait years for a good opportunity to present itself.

He is justifying his plots by saying he wants revenge.  What he really wants is power, the revenge is secondary.

And a Targaryen pretender to the (now defunct) throne would still be a powerful tool.  If Doran can make that marriage alliance, he can rally support in other kingdoms, much like Daemon Blackfyre did (if for different reasons).  It's like the Roman Empire - once you know it can be done, the dream of recreating it never dies, no matter how unlikely.

Doran, with Viserys in tow, can approach houses in the Reach who don't win the race for the Oakenseat, or who dislike whoever the current power is.  Same with all the regions.  Promise a Targaryen Restoration, and advanced positions and additional lands and honors and titles for whoever supports him.  Not as easy as IOTL, but possible.

5 hours ago, Denam_Pavel said:

Stannis barely visited his own castle because he was sick of his wife and he was Master of Ships and wroth he got Dragonstone instead of Storm's End, if none of those things are the case, I don't see Stannis following the court anywhere it's based.

I'm not sure how this follows.  Stannis believes in loyalty and duty.  If Robert appoints him, he'll do his job, wherever that takes him.

 

5 hours ago, Denam_Pavel said:

And Harrenhal is a central location built with it as the seat of a King in mind, there's a reason it placed a big role in the Dance of Dragons and War of Five Kings. As a replacement for King's Landing, Harrenhal has the presence that Duskendale or Rosby utterly lack.

It was built as a fortress for a king who didn't have a centrally located one.  But it's a white elephant that's impossible to maintain and there is nothing else to attract someone to setting up shop there.  It's also a very visible reminder of the power of the dynasty Robert just overthrew.  Additionally, as a royal fief, it's a way for the new dynasty to project power into the Riverlands at no cost, so it doesn't make sense to take that prize for themselves.  And, since it's part of another kingdom (sort of), it shows undue to favor the Riverlands.  Storm's End avoids that problem by placing the capital without favor to any vassal, but a place like Maidenpool or Duskendale make a lot more sense as port cities in relatively neutral territory