Did Jaime and Barristan question...

[WeKnowNothing]

37 minutes ago, cgrav said:

The central question here is: which events could NOT have happened if Lyanna had acted on her own free will? if every single event can be explained as both kidnapping and eloping then there's no affirmative argument.

As for why Lyanna had to be hidden, I'd say it was needed for secrecy. Rhaegar had been plotting a coup of sorts, and setting Elia aside would have damaged the fragile alliance with Dorne. Likely, Rhaegar wouldn't have wanted to reveal his new kingdom until everything was in place. Maybe he was planning to establish court at Starfall?

And I've yet to read an explanation for why Ned has no negative thoughts of a Rhaegar. Robert is the only character who actually acts as if Lyanna was kidnapped.

Even if Lyanna hadn't disappeared with Rhaegar, a rebellion would likely still have happened anyway. The realm was already breaking apart before Rhaegar had even met Lyanna - their was atleast (as far as we know) 4, maybe 5 houses planning a coup against the crown, it's what is called the 'southern amitions.' And Rhaegar was known to be planning to dethrone his father - so either a rebellion by the other houses against the crown, or Rhaegar rebelling with support of other houses would have gone down soon enough. 

And it is certainly very weird that Ned doesn't even have one negative thought of Rhaegar. His thoughts of Rhaegar are totally neutral which doesn't go with the idea of Ned had truly believed Rhaegar had kidnapped and raped his beloved sister Lyanna. 

Here is a very interesting passage of great relevance in a Bran POV:

"Something His Father Had Told Him Once When He Was Little Came Back To Him Suddenly. He Had Asked Lord Eddard If The Kingsguard Were Truly The Finest Knights In The Seven Kingdoms. "No Longer," He Answered, “But Once They Were A Marvel, A Shining Lesson To The World.”
"Was There One Who Was Best Of  All?"

"The Finest Knight I Ever Saw Was Ser Arthur Dayne, Who Fought With A Blade Called Dawn, Forged From The Heart Of A Fallen Star. They Called Him The Sword Of The Morning, And He Would Have Killed Me But For Howland Reed." 

The above extract does not fit the idea that the 3 KG forced Lyanna to do anything, or 'imprisoned' her in the tower. If they did, Ned wouldn't have described them as being "a shining lesson to the world" above. Ned obviously believed Lyanna was there on her own free will. If Ser Arthur had truly helped Rhaegar kidnap and rape Lyanna, then Ned wouldn't  have said Dayne was the "finest kingsguard I ever saw."

[cgrav]

2 hours ago, WeKnowNothing said:

it's what is called the 'southern amitions.'

Yeah, basically this looks like Rhaegar was setting up a shadow dynasty by deposing his father, getting a new queen, and bringing his Kingsguard along. 

The political angle helps explain why Ashara Dayne killed herself (or otherwise disappeared, if we must indulge the possibility): House Dayne had conspired against the throne. She was a treasoner and when Ned showed up with Dawn in hand, she knew the Southron Ambitions were lost. I wonder if Ned's purpose in visiting Starfall was actually to deliver justice. Maybe Ashara's death is one of Ned's 'lies'. 

[cpg2016]

22 hours ago, cgrav said:

And I've yet to read an explanation for why Ned has no negative thoughts of a Rhaegar. Robert is the only character who actually acts as if Lyanna was kidnapped.

Um, multiple characters think of it as kidnap, including Daenerys (who thinks she was carried off at swordpoint).  Plus all the people at the time considered it a kidnapping.  Brandon certainly does, since he goes riding off threatening Rhaegar.  Certainly he's being told by Lyanna's escorts that she was bodily abducted.

22 hours ago, cgrav said:

As for why Lyanna had to be hidden, I'd say it was needed for secrecy. Rhaegar had been plotting a coup of sorts, and setting Elia aside would have damaged the fragile alliance with Dorne.

Right, but this is self-contradictory.  Rhaegar is plotting his coup, and doesn't want to damage his alliance with the weakest of the Seven Kingdoms... so he rides off with Lyanna, thereby being certain to antagonize the North and the Stormlands, and like the Vale in the process via Jon Arryn.

And moreover, why does keeping Lyanna a secret mean anything?  Its obviously common knowledge at this point that she ran off with him, so hiding her doesn't mean keeping knowledge of the affair secret (which I agree would change things).  All the damage is done, that milk has already been spilled.  If anything, allowing Lyanna to be seen would help; if she ran off with him, as opposed to being kidnapped, it casts an entirely different light on the whole episode.  By hiding her in the Tower of Joy he just reinforces the narrative that she's a captive.

22 hours ago, cgrav said:

The central question here is: which events could NOT have happened if Lyanna had acted on her own free will? if every single event can be explained as both kidnapping and eloping then there's no affirmative argument.

Right, but not every event can be explained that way.  For example; why is Lyanna giving birth without any sort of maester present, or even a midwife being noted?  If she's a willing lover, it makes no sense.  If she's a captive, it does; Rhaegar can't risk another party being present and potentially spilling the beans.  The basic question of why the Tower of Joy can't be explained with her as a willing partner.  If she's Rhaegar's lover, why the hell are they spending months, presumably, riding to the ass-end of nowhere in Westeros to get down to the business of having sex and spending time together?  There is literally nothing unique about the Tower of Joy as opposed to any other random structure in the realm that recommends it for lovers.  And again, the whole elopement (in this version of the story) is common knowledge; there is no reason to keep Lyanna hidden or secret.  Of course, if Lyanna has been kidnapped, the Tower of Joy makes a ton of sense.  It's very far from anyone Lyanna might know, it's isolated from other people, there's no way for anyone to find them without being told where they are.  It's far away from Robert or the Starks; they can't march an army down to rescue her without being spotted a kingdom away.

 

22 hours ago, cgrav said:

And I've yet to read an explanation for why Ned has no negative thoughts of a Rhaegar. 

I suggest rereading the books.  We're told Ned doesn't really think of Rhaegar at all.  His only thought of him is that he doesn't think he visited brothels, which is a pretty neutral thought.  So he doesn't have a positive opinion on Rhaegar.  All in all, the whole "Ned's thoughts" argument is a bad one; it's lampshaded that he doesn't think about it at all, so it's not a piece of evidence in either direction.

But more than that, Ned just spent 16 years raising Rhaegar's son, whom he loves.  I understand it isn't impossible to love the kid and hate the father, but it might soften his attitude towards Rhaegar to know that he's the father of his beloved nephew/foster-son.

[cpg2016]

21 hours ago, WeKnowNothing said:

their was atleast (as far as we know) 4, maybe 5 houses planning a coup against the crown, it's what is called the 'southern amitions.' And Rhaegar was known to be planning to dethrone his father - so either a rebellion by the other houses against the crown, or Rhaegar rebelling with support of other houses would have gone down soon enough. 

This isn't true.  We have no idea that the Southron Ambitions bloc was planning.

 

21 hours ago, WeKnowNothing said:

And it is certainly very weird that Ned doesn't even have one negative thought of Rhaegar. His thoughts of Rhaegar are totally neutral which doesn't go with the idea of Ned had truly believed Rhaegar had kidnapped and raped his beloved sister Lyanna. 

He doesn't think of Rhaegar at all.  Which, I might argue, is evidence of him blocking a traumatic memory.  He also may feel some residual guilt by association over the way Elia and her kids died, which we know he violently disagreed with.

21 hours ago, WeKnowNothing said:

The above extract does not fit the idea that the 3 KG forced Lyanna to do anything, or 'imprisoned' her in the tower. If they did, Ned wouldn't have described them as being "a shining lesson to the world" above. Ned obviously believed Lyanna was there on her own free will. If Ser Arthur had truly helped Rhaegar kidnap and rape Lyanna, then Ned wouldn't  have said Dayne was the "finest kingsguard I ever saw."

THESE ARE THE SAME KINGSGUARD THAT HELPED AERYS BURN HIS FATHER AND BROTHER ALIVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Seriously, do you not think anything through?  This isn't evidence of anything; Ned clearly just doesn't hold them responsible for the actions of the royal family they were sworn to defend.  Stop taking random, unrelated quotes and pretending they support your point.

"It was said that no man ever knew Prince Rhaegar, truly. I had the privilege of seeing him in tourney, though, and often heard him play his harp with its silver strings."

We know Marillion tried to sexually assault Sansa, and he was a musician, so all musicians are obviously rapists and thus, Rhaegar must have raped Lyanna.

See, I can do it too!

[Ygrain]

1 minute ago, cpg2016 said:

Um, multiple characters think of it as kidnap, including Daenerys (who thinks she was carried off at swordpoint).

And in what context does Dany think about it? A swooping rescue from an unwanted marriage.

1 minute ago, cpg2016 said:

 Plus all the people at the time considered it a kidnapping.

Ah? And you have any quote to back this claim? 

1 minute ago, cpg2016 said:

 Brandon certainly does, since he goes riding off threatening Rhaegar.  Certainly he's being told by Lyanna's escorts that she was bodily abducted.

This, however, is merely your interpretation of the facts. We are told that "Brandon heard about Lyanna", but not what it was that he heard. We are also told that he yelled for Rhaegar to "come out and die", not "release my sister OR!". 

We are not even told if Lyanna had any guards with her (though it is not an unreasonable assumption).

The World Book claims that Brandon nearly came to blows with Rhaegar because he perceived the crowning with the QoLaB laurel as a stain on Lyanna's honour. Now, just hypothetically: what might such a honor-sensitive hothead do if, say, his sister was seduced? Does it come off as entirely implausible that he might want to challenge the guy who seduced her to a duel to avenge his sister's honor, even regardless of he sister's wishes and feelings? Because what little we have been told about the incident so far does not exclude such a scenario (and for an elder brother worried about his sister's fate, Brandon shows rather weird priorities).

1 minute ago, cpg2016 said:

And moreover, why does keeping Lyanna a secret mean anything?  Its obviously common knowledge at this point that she ran off with him, so hiding her doesn't mean keeping knowledge of the affair secret (which I agree would change things).  All the damage is done, that milk has already been spilled.  If anything, allowing Lyanna to be seen would help; if she ran off with him, as opposed to being kidnapped, it casts an entirely different light on the whole episode.  By hiding her in the Tower of Joy he just reinforces the narrative that she's a captive.

The point would be keeping Lyanna's location secret, as well as initially his own. If you take a look at a couple of examples from the history (Westerosi as well as real): when two people want to be together despite their families' wishes, they elope and come back only when the marriage is consummated because then it cannot be dissolved. Whereas, if you ask for permission beforehands, you will be refused, and if the person you ask is the king, you cannot really disobey, can you? We see this e.g. with Daemon and Rhaenyra - the first time they asked, didn't receive permission, so the second time, they went ahead without asking, and all Viserys could do afterwards was throw a tantrum. So, if Lyanna and Rhaegar go into hiding, Aerys cannot command them to come back, cannot order Rhaegar to return Lyanna to her family, and even if the Starks or Robert raise an official complaint, he cannot do a thing because R+L cannot be found.

When the shitstorm of the Rebellion starts, it becomes even more crucial that Lyanna is not to be found. If the Rebels find her, she would be forced to return to Robert. If Aerys finds her, she becomes a hostage against the Rebels and Rhaegar himself, so it is essential that no-one knows where she is.

1 minute ago, cpg2016 said:

Right, but not every event can be explained that way.  For example; why is Lyanna giving birth without any sort of maester present, or even a midwife being noted?

And where is it stated that no-one is present? Ned's recollection goes "they found him", i.e. Howland Reed and at least one other person whose identity is not mentioned, which perfectly allows for a midwife etc.

1 minute ago, cpg2016 said:

 If she's a willing lover, it makes no sense.  If she's a captive, it does; Rhaegar can't risk another party being present and potentially spilling the beans.  The basic question of why the Tower of Joy can't be explained with her as a willing partner.  If she's Rhaegar's lover, why the hell are they spending months, presumably, riding to the ass-end of nowhere in Westeros to get down to the business of having sex and spending time together?  There is literally nothing unique about the Tower of Joy as opposed to any other random structure in the realm that recommends it for lovers.

Well, it is not stated that they had been there the whole time, is it?

Plus, the location might have some advantages you are not taking into account: if it is an abandoned watchtower, you can see wide and far who is approaching, while it is improbable that anyone would bother to leave the road just to climb up the ridge to take a view. A secluded spot which can easily be guarded: that requires not just any random structure but one you know well, and the supply of such places can be limited.

1 minute ago, cpg2016 said:

I suggest rereading the books.  We're told Ned doesn't really think of Rhaegar at all.

Sorry but you are the one in need of re-read. Rhaegar pops up in conversation or thoughts every couple of pages, well prior the statement which you are misquoting and which actually goes "first time in years, Ned found himself remembering Rhaegar". And after that, he goes on to make an estimate about Rhaegar, i.e. he goes back to what he knows about the prince to make this estimate.

1 minute ago, cpg2016 said:

 His only thought of him is that he doesn't think he visited brothels, which is a pretty neutral thought.  So he doesn't have a positive opinion on Rhaegar.  

Again, you are leaving out the context. It's on the way back from the brothel, and Ned is terribly disillusioned with Robert, for his whoring. And then, from a very clear disapproval of Robert's whoring, he goes to making an estimate about Rhaegar not whoring - i.e., he sees that his dead sister's betrothed, who is also his best friend, is flawed, and then gives her rapist some points for not possessing the flaw? How come that he even thinks about the betrothed and the rapist in the lines of comparing them in any way at all? And why does he compare them in terms of promiscuity, with the rapist coming off as the better man? Such lines of thinking make no sense at all, unless he is, in fact, comparing Lyanna's partners.

1 minute ago, cpg2016 said:

But more than that, Ned just spent 16 years raising Rhaegar's son, whom he loves.  I understand it isn't impossible to love the kid and hate the father, but it might soften his attitude towards Rhaegar to know that he's the father of his beloved nephew/foster-son.

I love my son dearly but that doesn't mean I've softened to my ex. And although I am reminded of his existence on a daily basis, I don't spend that much time remembering him, either.

PS. It's 14, not 16.

[Jaak]

23 hours ago, cgrav said:

And I've yet to read an explanation for why Ned has no negative thoughts of a Rhaegar. Robert is the only character who actually acts as if Lyanna was kidnapped.

Why did Ned fight against Rhaegaer at Trident?

[Ygrain]

14 minutes ago, Jaak said:

Why did Ned fight against Rhaegaer at Trident?

Because Rhaegar's dad wanted his head?

Ned didn't fight Rhaegar as such, he fought the loyalist army. The one making the fight personal was Robert, not Ned.

[Prince Yourwetdream Aeryn]

[[deleted]]

[cgrav]

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

He doesn't think of Rhaegar at all.  Which, I might argue, is evidence of him blocking a traumatic memory.

I will respond more thoroughly later, but in regards to this:

1) he *does* think of Rhaegar, and not once does he think something negative. When Robert first wants to kill Dany, Ned rebuffs him (Ned II). Later on Ned is more disturbed by Robert's enduring anger than anything Rhaegar did (Ned VIII). When visiting Barra's royal bastard he wonders and doubts if Rhaegar visited brothels (Ned IX). If there were any time for Ned to express his hate for Rhaegar, one of those conversations would have been it. Instead he actively protects Dany, despite his deep sense of duty. 

Rhaegar comes up in thought and conversation a number of times, in fact more than any POV other than Dany's. So it's patently false that Ned doesn't think about Rhaegar. And you'd think if he felt that Rhaegar killed his sister, his thoughts would stray from neutral recollection. He even has praise for Arthur Dayne, which makes no sense at all if he was indeed Lyanna's gaoler. Considering very honorable people like Barristan and Jon Con still think fondly of Rhaegar doesn't help your case, either.

 

2) Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence! The textual silence on this mystery doesn't mean we get to insert whatever we like. You've found ambiguity, but no real evidence that Ned has negative feelings. We don't get to say "unreliable narrator" any time it's convenient.

What you're doing is filling the gaps with assumptions rather than evidence. You've found space, but not conclusions.

[cgrav]

3 hours ago, Jaak said:

Why did Ned fight against Rhaegaer at Trident?

Duty and self preservation. There was no third side to take. Either with Robert or against him. 

There is also a dilemma of treason - even if he knew Rhaegar was planning a coup, he'd be supporting a treasoner instead of a conquerer. There's a concept of "right of conquest" but not so for treachery.

It seems pretty clear to me that Ned killed people he'd really rather not have. The ToJ KG in particular, but in Ned's opening scene in Bran I, it seems pretty obvious that Ned was not entirely comfortable with the execution. 


Lengthy edit: 
The more I think about this whole situation as politics rather than personal enmity, the more sense it makes. The lords of the Vale, Riverlands, and North had interlocking marriage alliances. By making Lyanna his queen, Rhaegar would have tied the northern coalition to his throne. His closeness with Arthur Dayne could have been used to help preserve alliances with the South, possibly by naming House Dayne Warden and Lord. The Lannisters would not have complained about Targ continuity (plus we've seen how dishonorably pragmatic Tywin was).

Because Aerys's attendance at Harrenhall prevented a secret council, Rhaegard had to take the first step publicly, and in such a way that it would not necessarily be understood by people not already in on the plot. 

 Basically, if Rhaegar had been able to act quickly enough, he could have prevented the conflict by deposing Aerys and leaving only the Baratheons aggrieved. The kidnapping story could well have been used simply to cover up the treason. And if the new King Robert didn't know there was a plot to elevate Rhaegar, he wouldn't purge his councils and punish Rhaegarist lords. Robert believed the story, never learned of Rhaegar's plot, and thus Rhaegarist Targ loyalists remained in the Red Keep.

[Jaak]

5 hours ago, cgrav said:

Duty and self preservation. There was no third side to take. Either with Robert or against him. 

There is also a dilemma of treason - even if he knew Rhaegar was planning a coup, he'd be supporting a treasoner instead of a conquerer. There's a concept of "right of conquest" but not so for treachery.

There was quite likely a third side to take. Two major civil wars had ended in negotiated settlements.

In Spring 131, Lannisters, Baratheons and Hightowers were safe in their homebases. The Greens could have fought on for Queen Jaehaera, safe in Storm´s End.

Instead they took the peace offers of Corlys. What were their content?

Lyonel Baratheon, the Laughing Storm, had risen in rebellion and committed the insult of declaring himself Storm King.

What did he get for it?

Beheaded for high treason?

Stripped naked and extradited in chains by his own retainers, like the previous Storm Queen, with much better right than Lyonel?

Received the mercy of getting sent to Wall?

No. He returned to being "mere" Lord, as before.

And worse - what became of royal family?

Heir to the Crown disinherited. A princess handed over to the rebel as a ward/hostage.

Effectively a humiliating defeat to Crown and a victory for the rebel.

So yes. Eddard was an outlaw. What next?

Getting a pardon was in no way implausible. Common way of dealing with rebels too strong to suppress.

If Rhaegaer, before Trident, approached the rebels with offer of pardon and negotiations, what would Eddard´s position have been?

[Ygrain]

8 minutes ago, Jaak said:

If Rhaegaer, before Trident, approached the rebels with offer of pardon and negotiations, what would Eddard´s position have been?

I'm fairly sure he would have been willing to treat. Unfortunately, it was Robert's Rebellion, nod Eddard's, and there is no way Robert would have agreed to anything Rhaegar would have proposed.

[TMIFairy]

45 minutes ago, Jaak said:

There was quite likely a third side to take. Two major civil wars had ended in negotiated settlements.

In Spring 131, Lannisters, Baratheons and Hightowers were safe in their homebases. The Greens could have fought on for Queen Jaehaera, safe in Storm´s End.

SNIP

Lyonel Baratheon, the Laughing Storm, had risen in rebellion and committed the insult of declaring himself Storm King.

SNIP

If Rhaegaer, before Trident, approached the rebels with offer of pardon and negotiations, what would Eddard´s position have been?

I can't comment on the Dance of Dragons thingy as I do not know enough.

As to Lyonel Baratheon - the "other side" of the negotiations was Aegon Vth. Who did not wish a war and destruction of one of the Seven Realms  because of what one of his children had done.

Which part of "Aerys was crazy" is difficult to grasp?

As to

"If Rhaegaer, before Trident, approached the rebels with offer of pardon and negotiations, what would Eddard´s position have been?"

we do not know because that "oh so wonderful" specimen of Targaryen royalty DID NOT offer "pardons and negotiations". Which - "legally" - he had no right to do so anyway. But, as I can on repeating, in politics "might makes right" and politcis is "the art of the possible" (or "whatever I can get away with goes").

Had Rheagar done so than "Daddy Dear" probably would had murdered his family. Burning them or cut down by the swords of the "True Knights" of the KG - "we serve the King, we do not judge Him"

And had he joined the rebels to overthrow his father - which supposedly had been "his plan all along" - then the result is the same - Rhegar is a childless widower.

He can now marry his "1 tru lurve" Lyanna ...

 

 

 

[cgrav]

54 minutes ago, Jaak said:

If Rhaegaer, before Trident, approached the rebels with offer of pardon and negotiations, what would Eddard´s position have been?

But this is a hypothetical, not the history as written. There was no such overt offer, as peace was not Rhaegar's to negotiate. Doing so could have been punishable and stoked Aerys's fears of a coup. And then when his shadow diplomacy was thwarted by Aerys at Harrenhall, Rhaegar felt he had little choice but to move forward in some fashion and hope he could outrun the potential consequences. 

I think Ned's position is a dilemma no matter what, because he's pulled in two diametrically opposed directions. No middle ground saves him from both Robert and Aerys. And according to Ned's sense of honor, joining a rebellion was far more legitimate than joining a treasonous plot, even if the treason was cleaner. We see the same dilemma presented in the Red Wedding. 

Edit: and as nearly unadulterated conjecture, I do think it's possible that Robert was offered peace one last time, after being wounded by Rhaegar at the Trident. I think he may have yielded, assented to peace, and then struck Rhaegar in an act of treachery.

[TMIFairy]

12 minutes ago, cgrav said:

Edit: and as nearly unadulterated conjecture, I do think it's possible that Robert was offered peace one last time, after being wounded by Rhaegar at the Trident. I think he may have yielded, assented to peace, and then struck Rhaegar in an act of treachery.

And in the back too!

 

 

[Jaak]

50 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

I'm fairly sure he would have been willing to treat. Unfortunately, it was Robert's Rebellion, nod Eddard's, and there is no way Robert would have agreed to anything Rhaegar would have proposed.

No, it was Jon's rebellion.

Of the four allies, what did they have?

Jon had support of most of Vale. Had been opposed by Grafrons of Gulltown, but had suppressed that long ago.

Hoster led much of Riverlands. Much of Riverlands was still on loyalist side, and Freys were late.

Eddard was the only one who had support of a whole realm - no Targaryen loyalists mentioned in North, unlike the other three.

Robert had left Stormlands with the lords - who had left their homes to be conquered by Tyrells. He had lost a battle at Ashford, and been crushed at Battle of Bells.

Yes, the surviving Stormlands men must have rallied back to Robert after Eddard bailed him out. But Robert must have remained the weakest force of the 4.

The men of Stormlands had followed Robert because they loved him and Aerys had asked for his head without a good reason. If Rhaegaer makes an offer of pardon to Eddard and Robert - to the effect that they can keep their heads and go home, but do not get Lyanna back - which of them would have accepted?

[TMIFairy]

16 minutes ago, Jaak said:

If Rhaegaer makes an offer of pardon to Eddard and Robert - to the effect that they can keep their heads and go home, but do not get Lyanna back - which of them would have accepted?

Such an offer is not enough.

1 - All rebels have to be pardoned.

2 - IMO Eddard would make it conditional on what Lyanna said.

3 - and - most importantly of all - Rheagar cannot deliver UNLESS he overthrows his father.

[cgrav]

20 minutes ago, Jaak said:

If Rhaegaer makes an offer of pardon to Eddard and Robert - to the effect that they can keep their heads and go home, but do not get Lyanna back - which of them would have accepted?

The issue here is that Rhaegar's words were meaningless. Nothing he offered could be taken seriously as long as Aerys was King. 

The conflict was also not unilateral. The marriage and foster alliances between the Riverlands, Vale, and Riverlands were meaningful and had to be weighed against loyalty to the throne. Would peace with maybe-king Rhaegar have saved the north from its neighbors' reprisal?

Really, I would say that the North's participation in Robert's rebellion was an act of "family, duty, honor", and not pragmatic in way. If the North wished to secede from the Crown or see Rhaegar depose Aerys, it had only to declare its southern border and stay put. But the reality was that the North could not honorably support a treasonous plot and could also not honorably abandon its allies-in-law. 

[TMIFairy]

17 minutes ago, cgrav said:

Really, I would say that the North's participation in Robert's rebellion was an act of "family, duty, honor"

I the way you put it

 

[Ygrain]

1 hour ago, Jaak said:

No, it was Jon's rebellion.

.... But Robert must have remained the weakest force of the 4.

Nope. Regardless of the actual strengths and motivations, Robert was pretty much a figurehead, and if he couldn't be convinced to settle for peace, Jon and Ned wouldn't abandon him, anyway.

1 hour ago, Jaak said:

If Rhaegaer makes an offer of pardon to Eddard and Robert - to the effect that they can keep their heads and go home, but do not get Lyanna back - which of them would have accepted?

Ned might, but Robert not, and Ned would always side with Robert, so...