Did Jaime and Barristan question...

[Jaak]

3 hours ago, cgrav said:

The issue here is that Rhaegar's words were meaningless. Nothing he offered could be taken seriously as long as Aerys was King.

That was a problem in 131 as well. Could Baratheons, Hightowers or Lannisters put any faith in Corlys' words, without having Corlys' pardons overruled by Cregan Stark or Aegon Dragonsbane when he grows up?

[WeKnowNothing]

On 3 August 2017 at 1:55 AM, cgrav said:

Yeah, basically this looks like Rhaegar was setting up a shadow dynasty by deposing his father, getting a new queen, and bringing his Kingsguard along. 

The political angle helps explain why Ashara Dayne killed herself (or otherwise disappeared, if we must indulge the possibility): House Dayne had conspired against the throne. She was a treasoner and when Ned showed up with Dawn in hand, she knew the Southron Ambitions were lost. I wonder if Ned's purpose in visiting Starfall was actually to deliver justice. Maybe Ashara's death is one of Ned's 'lies'. 

Asharas death wasn't in any angle a political one though. I believe Ashara could be the strongest candidate of who sent Ned the tower of joy location. And then when Ned turns up at Starfall with evidence he has killed Arthur, she commits suicide falling out the Starfall tower as she was the one who sent Ned to kill her brother. She wouldn't have been in the southern ambitions plan as she supported the Targearyens and the Dornish, so she would have only been in pro-Targ plans. 

[WeKnowNothing]

16 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

This isn't true.  We have no idea that the Southron Ambitions bloc was planning.

It is heavily implied that the houses Stark, Baratheon, Arryn and Tully (maybe Lannister) were planning something against the crown, which is shown in all the marriages and fosterings between them all. these were houses (especially Stark) that never married outside their own territories and bannermen. So the fact that they were doing so now raised suspicion. They didn't have to be planning to remove Aerys from the throne, maybe it could have just been fighting for more power and recognition for their own houses.

16 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

He doesn't think of Rhaegar at all.  Which, I might argue, is evidence of him blocking a traumatic memory.  He also may feel some residual guilt by association over the way Elia and her kids died, which we know he violently disagreed with.

As others have pointed out, Ned does think of Rhaegar sevaral times in his POVs, POVs in which Rhaegar's name is mentioned every few pages. If he seriously thought Rhaegar raped and kidnapped his sister, he wouldn't just remain silent (both outloud and in his internal monologue) about it. He would atleast have a little rage like Robert or have hateful thoughts of Rhaegar in his thoughts. But he doesn't. Not at all. And Rhaegar being a traumatic memory is no excuse for not thinking about him. Almost every single POV character in this story has traumatic memories, yet they still think of these memories in their internal thoughts. So the fact that Ned doesn't, just remains quite about it, and doesn't have any anger at all for the man who 'raped' his sister - is a big clue on Rhaegar and Lyanna being a willing and loving relationship.

17 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

THESE ARE THE SAME KINGSGUARD THAT HELPED AERYS BURN HIS FATHER AND BROTHER ALIVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Seriously, do you not think anything through?  This isn't evidence of anything; Ned clearly just doesn't hold them responsible for the actions of the royal family they were sworn to defend.  Stop taking random, unrelated quotes and pretending they support your point.

"It was said that no man ever knew Prince Rhaegar, truly. I had the privilege of seeing him in tourney, though, and often heard him play his harp with its silver strings."

We know Marillion tried to sexually assault Sansa, and he was a musician, so all musicians are obviously rapists and thus, Rhaegar must have raped Lyanna.

See, I can do it too!

Actually, Dayne and Whent were not even there when Ned's father and brother were burnt alive. They were with Rhaegar and Lyanna in the ToJ, and stay there for the entire rebellion. Only Hightower was there, and Ned doesn't have any dislike or hatred for him being there during the burning - instead he was one of the "marvels" and "shining lessons to the world" that he talks about. And Ned DOES dislike those who follow kings orders - he had a huge issue with Jaime doing so, which you didn't seem to notice.

Ah, you see - I gave a relevant quote and backed it up with why Ned acts the way he does...which is a huge difference to how you just gave a totally irrelevant quote and showed how Rhaegar was a 'rapist.' Whereas if you decide to read the books, there is actually no proof that Rhaegar was infact a rapist - it's just you choosing what you want to believe and forming your own opinions, when there aren't even any quotes backing you in the first place. 

[TMIFairy]

1 hour ago, WeKnowNothing said:

Asharas death wasn't in any angle a political one though. I believe Ashara could be the strongest candidate of who sent Ned the tower of joy location. And then when Ned turns up at Starfall with evidence he has killed Arthur, she commits suicide falling out the Starfall tower as she was the one who sent Ned to kill her brother.

It also is possible that Ned took away her son by Brandon.

Evil!Ned tore Jon from her breast and she went and offed herself ...

 

20 minutes ago, WeKnowNothing said:

It is heavily implied that the houses Stark, Baratheon, Arryn and Tully (maybe Lannister) were planning something against the crown, which is shown in all the marriages and fosterings between them all. these were houses (especially Stark) that never married outside their own territories and bannermen.

A minor point - the Starks took in brides from House Blackwood (BTW - wasn't Queen Bertha Blackwood's sister the wife of the then Lord Stark?) from the Riverlands and from House Royce in the Vale. This seems to happen every three or four generations.

 

[WeKnowNothing]

4 minutes ago, TMIFairy said:

It also is possible that Ned took away her son by Brandon.

Evil!Ned tore Jon from her breast and she went and offed herself ...

 

A minor point - the Starks took in brides from House Blackwood (BTW - wasn't Queen Bertha Blackwood's sister the wife of the then Lord Stark?) from the Riverlands and from House Royce in the Vale. This seems to happen every three or four generations.

 

Jon being Ashara's son could have been a huge theory if there hadn't been a million holes in it. Like the fact that Ashara's child had been a stillborn girl, so this eliminates Jon as being her child since he was born a living boy. 

But the Blackwoods are not particularly a southern house, so they can marry a Blackwood. This makes Jon have Blackwood great grandmothers on both sides of the family. The Starks have only been known to marry first men houses, like Royces, Blackwoods, as well as their own bannermen.

[TMIFairy]

19 minutes ago, WeKnowNothing said:

But the Blackwoods are not particularly a southern house, so they can marry a Blackwood. This makes Jon have Blackwood great grandmothers on both sides of the family. The Starks have only been known to marry first men houses, like Royces, Blackwoods, as well as their own bannermen.

I realised not so long ago that Daenerys - due to two generations of incest - is a half-Blackwood.

[cgrav]

4 hours ago, Jaak said:

That was a problem in 131 as well. Could Baratheons, Hightowers or Lannisters put any faith in Corlys' words, without having Corlys' pardons overruled by Cregan Stark or Aegon Dragonsbane when he grows up?

But Rhaegar made no such offer. Maybe things would have turned out differently if he had, but he didn't. 

 

2 hours ago, WeKnowNothing said:

Asharas death wasn't in any angle a political one though. I believe Ashara could be the strongest candidate of who sent Ned the tower of joy location. And then when Ned turns up at Starfall with evidence he has killed Arthur, she commits suicide falling out the Starfall tower as she was the one who sent Ned to kill her brother. She wouldn't have been in the southern ambitions plan as she supported the Targearyens and the Dornish, so she would have only been in pro-Targ plans. 

I just don't see sibling grief being that intense. It's a conspicuously strong reaction, so I'm inclined to look for causes beyond simply losing a loved one who she wasn't even around regularly. And I'm not convinced by any ?+A=J theories, so I don't think she lost a child. Remember Ned was touring the kingdoms collecting bent knees after the sack of KL, so Arthur Dayne's presence at the ToJ and continued defense of the royal bastard from a declared enemy would have implicated his house in Rhaegar's coup. It's entirely possible that Ned went to Starfall not simply to give Ashara the news, but to obtain House Dayne's fealty. Could be that Ned did the deed himself as a matter of delivering justice to a house in rebellion, or maybe he let her escape. The suicide story, like the kidnapping one, would thus serve to hide the political angle and, after the rebellion, prevent Robert from learning the full extent of the plan, including RLJ. 

I recognize this is all just my conjecture, but I think it explains things nicely. Especially Ned's melancholy about the Rebellion - he would rather have supported Rhaegar's coup, but was bound by other obligations to support Robert.

Through this lens, I think we can ask if Ned saving Jon Snow wasn't more than an act of mercy, but also a secret hope that Rhaegar's line could be restored. Ned is first quite reluctant to send Jon to the Wall, and later it's suspected that Ned wants to write Jon from the Black Cell, but is too afraid that Varys will read his letter. He's also intensely defensive about letting Danaerys live. Starting to think Ned's real secret Targ...

[Ygrain]

4 hours ago, cgrav said:

I just don't see sibling grief being that intense.

Not just sibling grief - if Ashara was the one that told Ned about ToJ, then she, in fact, brought about her brother's death. That would be tough to cope with, and if you add the loss of a child as well as a lover, I'd say little wonder.

But there are, of course, other options:

if the Jon-at-Starfall theory is correct, then Ashara's depression after her own child's death could lead to viewing Jon as a substitute, and Ned taking him the baby away would renew the trauma, which would be too much to bear for her

if the stillborn girl was actually Elia's and Ashara's baby was Aegon, then Ned would have confirmed that the news from KL are true and the baby prince dead, which again would be a reasonable explanation for her suicide.

 

[Jaak]

4 hours ago, cgrav said:

But Rhaegar made no such offer. Maybe things would have turned out differently if he had, but he didn't.

Or he did exactly that, publicly or quietly, but for various reasons it did not succeed.

We have a So Spake Martin stating with relevant ambiguity that Robert declared for Iron Throne "around" the time of Trident.

Leaving open the options that Robert

1. declared for Iron Throne only after the battle was won and Rhaegaer dead
2. declared for Iron Throne before the battle, hampering reconciliation.

We see the attempted negotiations between Stannis and Renly. Given that we do not know such details of Trident as to whether Robert declared for Iron Throne before or after the battle, we also do not know whether there were negotiations before battle, or what was told there.

[Castellan]

On 21 July 2017 at 7:51 AM, Grazdan zo Azer said:

It is weird that Jaime and Barristan knows nothing about Lyanna's pregnancy. Did Jaime and Barristan question why three members of Kingsguard were sent to Dorne during Robert's Rebellion? Especially Barristan felt guilty for  Aerys' murder. He should try to find out why Lyanna was more important for Kingsguard than Aerys. But we didn't get any clues in his POVs.

I have always thought that given people's general propensity to gossip and women's traditional propensity to gossip about stuff like bastard children, unwanted pregnancies, love affairs, it would occur to people that

(a) Lyanna may have bolted with/to Rhaegar because she was pregnant (given that they were both known to be at the tourney and he crowned her the Queen of Love and Beauty there for God's sake) 

(b) the mysterious bastard raised within Eddard's own home who arrived roughly after the events at the TOJ could have been Lyanna's. I think in the course of rambling gossipy discussion the possibility is bound to be raised. Writing this now it also occur's to me that it might be assumed at least that the child was high born hence this special treatment rather than just giving some support to the mother. Its true there was the rival theory of Ashara Dayne to distract but bored people on the hunt of a good story are relentless. Look at all the tabloid junk we read today.

Eddard had on his side remoteness, and the fact that after the War he more or less stuck to the North, and he could stop gossip in his own household by threats to his servants. Also I think the fact that he is not a very interesting person to gossips, unlike his brother Brandon for example. Nevertheless...

I did not consider the question about the posting of the Kingsguard but I agree that is an issue too.

[WeKnowNothing]

On 4 August 2017 at 4:12 PM, TMIFairy said:

I realised not so long ago that Daenerys - due to two generations of incest - is a half-Blackwood.

It's also strange to think that she has atleast a good percentage of Dayne blood, and Dornish blood - due to the two generations before Aegon V and his Blackwood wife

[Apoplexy]

Barristan believed Rhaegar loved Lyanna, so I'm sure he wasn't surprised that Rhaegar wanted her safe. And I don't think Jaime cared really. He was distracted by cersei and having to serve the mad king.

[cpg2016]

On 8/3/2017 at 4:32 PM, Ygrain said:

And in what context does Dany think about it? A swooping rescue from an unwanted marriage.

Yes, because Dany wants to be rescued, and she's into "bad boys" .  But the point is, she thinks Lyanna was taken at swordpoint - which means, by definition, this is an abduction and therefore rape.  One cannot give valid consent at the point of a sword.

On 8/3/2017 at 4:32 PM, Ygrain said:

Ah? And you have any quote to back this claim? 

Well we only have one contemporary reaction, and that is Brandon's.

On 8/3/2017 at 4:32 PM, Ygrain said:

This, however, is merely your interpretation of the facts. We are told that "Brandon heard about Lyanna", but not what it was that he heard. We are also told that he yelled for Rhaegar to "come out and die", not "release my sister OR!". 

We are not even told if Lyanna had any guards with her (though it is not an unreasonable assumption).

The World Book claims that Brandon nearly came to blows with Rhaegar because he perceived the crowning with the QoLaB laurel as a stain on Lyanna's honour. Now, just hypothetically: what might such a honor-sensitive hothead do if, say, his sister was seduced? Does it come off as entirely implausible that he might want to challenge the guy who seduced her to a duel to avenge his sister's honor, even regardless of he sister's wishes and feelings? Because what little we have been told about the incident so far does not exclude such a scenario (and for an elder brother worried about his sister's fate, Brandon shows rather weird priorities).

It sounds as if most of the crowd thought that Rhaegar crowning Lyanna was an insult - Robert certainly does, Ned does, Brandon does, and the phrase "that's when all the smiles died" is definitely indicative.

And by the way, it isn't all that plausible that he's out there challenging everyone who he thinks is into someone he feels protective of.  Because we know that the other time it happens, he isn't the one insisting on it.  He knows Littlefinger is obsessed with Cat (it seems to be an open secret at Riverrun), and doesn't go around demanding he come out to die.

And it is absurd to think Lyanna doesn't have some kind of escort.  This is the same year, I believe, as the one in which the Kingswood Brotherhood is going about abducting and ransoming noble ladies.  Obviously Lyanna isn't near the Kingswood (plus they've already been defeated), but Lord Stark isn't letting his daughter roam around a foreign kingdom on her own.

And I don't know why you think Brandon has weird priorities.  Because he doesn't ride up and demand to see Lyanna?  That only doesn't make sense if you presuppose Lyanna is a willing participant.  As with all arguments in favor of Lyanna's complicity, they only make sense if you assume beforehand that Lyanna eloped.  In a vacuum, Brandon's actions make perfect sense (I mean, once you accept he's riding to the Red Keep in the first place).  He thinks Rhaegar kidnapped his sister; he has to deal with him before he can get his sister back.  Same way hostage negotiators don't ask to negotiate with the hostages.

On 8/3/2017 at 4:32 PM, Ygrain said:

And where is it stated that no-one is present? Ned's recollection goes "they found him", i.e. Howland Reed and at least one other person whose identity is not mentioned, which perfectly allows for a midwife etc.

Right, there is one other person, who isn't attending to the birth, or else she would be with Lyanna, and not in a position to
"find" Ned with her.  Real great midwife, who is not with the pregnant woman.  Plus, what little evidence we have points to that person being Wylla, who is a wet nurse.

On 8/3/2017 at 4:32 PM, Ygrain said:

The point would be keeping Lyanna's location secret, as well as initially his own. If you take a look at a couple of examples from the history (Westerosi as well as real): when two people want to be together despite their families' wishes, they elope and come back only when the marriage is consummated because then it cannot be dissolved. Whereas, if you ask for permission beforehands, you will be refused, and if the person you ask is the king, you cannot really disobey, can you? We see this e.g. with Daemon and Rhaenyra - the first time they asked, didn't receive permission, so the second time, they went ahead without asking, and all Viserys could do afterwards was throw a tantrum. So, if Lyanna and Rhaegar go into hiding, Aerys cannot command them to come back, cannot order Rhaegar to return Lyanna to her family, and even if the Starks or Robert raise an official complaint, he cannot do a thing because R+L cannot be found.

I'm not sure how you make this argument and miss the obvious implications inherent in it.  You are arguing that Lyanna needs to be hidden until their relationship is so secure as to be a fait accompli that everyone HAS to accept.  Which is fine, but you aren't actually thinking this through.  Why doesn't Rhaegar just marry Lyanna and then reappear?  The obvious answer is that he cannot, as he's married to Elia and polygamy is violently frowned on by the Faith.  And even if he wanted to try, why not just marry her at the Red Keep, or Oldtown, or wherever?  Why the Tower of Joy?  And if she's pregnant, she isn't immediately unable to travel; we know Westerosi women travel even when heavily pregnant.  So if your argument is that they're waiting until everyone will have to accept their relationship, you have to explain why they don't bother leaving the Tower once that goal is achieved.  And from the perspective of the Baratheons and the Starks, two powerful Targaryen vassals, Rhaegar just definitely abducted their fiance/daughter, and Rhaegar 100% knew this would be the reaction when he did it; what makes you think he's obeying any orders?  He just spat in the face of both law and tradition.

On 8/3/2017 at 4:32 PM, Ygrain said:

When the shitstorm of the Rebellion starts, it becomes even more crucial that Lyanna is not to be found. If the Rebels find her, she would be forced to return to Robert. If Aerys finds her, she becomes a hostage against the Rebels and Rhaegar himself, so it is essential that no-one knows where she is.

See, this doesn't make sense either.  The Rebellion doesn't start because of Lyanna's abduction, it starts because Aerys extra-legally kills two of his vassals, and calls for killing two more.  If anything, Lyanna is a valuable chip for Rhaegar to calm hostilities... say, by showing that Lyanna is a willing participant in eloping.  And while Aerys is paranoid about Rhaegar's ambitions, he just definitively showed he places Rhaegar above anything else in the Kingdoms, by murdering Brandon and Rickard for calling for justice.

And again, your whole argument relies on Rhaegar's political needs.  Nowhere in that passage does anything reflect what is best for Lyanna.  I agree with you entirely that Rhaegar can't let Aerys or Robert/Ned know where Lyanna is - but that's is what is best for Rhaegar.  It's not even remotely in Lyanna's best interest.  She can't possibly be averse to letting her family know she's okay, alive, and a willing participant in all this.  What, is her plan to be estranged from her family forever?  Why in the world wouldn't she send word to them that she's eloped?  Especially if she knows that it's helping spark off a war in which half her family and thousands more people are dying?  A war in which her entire family will likely be exterminated if they lose?

On 8/3/2017 at 4:32 PM, Ygrain said:

Well, it is not stated that they had been there the whole time, is it?

Plus, the location might have some advantages you are not taking into account: if it is an abandoned watchtower, you can see wide and far who is approaching, while it is improbable that anyone would bother to leave the road just to climb up the ridge to take a view. A secluded spot which can easily be guarded: that requires not just any random structure but one you know well, and the supply of such places can be limited.

Well, they had to ride there, of course.

But it is heavily implied they've been there the entire time.  Gerold Hightower finds them there, and Lyanna doesn't leave until giving birth.  So even if they spend a couple weeks somewhere else, it's unimportant in the scheme of things; the ultimately locate there, and Rhaegar chooses to have Lyanna give birth there.

Any castle provides a vantage point that can see a long way away - it's one of the functions of a castle.  As I think has been definitively proven, Rhaegar does not need a "secluded" structure, he needs a safe place with people he trusts.  That is, of course, if we assume Lyanna is a willing participant.  Seclusion is meaningless if Lyanna is a willing participant, since no one will recognize her and she won't spill the beans.  Since he's almost certainly sourcing supplies from a nearby castle (Nightsong or Kingsgrave), we have to wonder why he isn't actually in those castles. 

And by the way, we have no evidence that Rhaegar knows the Tower of Joy "well".  It's rather unlikely that he does.  He knows Summerhall and its environs well, but that's the only other place besides Dragonstone and Kings Landing that we know Rhaegar spends time in.

On 8/3/2017 at 4:32 PM, Ygrain said:

Sorry but you are the one in need of re-read. Rhaegar pops up in conversation or thoughts every couple of pages, well prior the statement which you are misquoting and which actually goes "first time in years, Ned found himself remembering Rhaegar". And after that, he goes on to make an estimate about Rhaegar, i.e. he goes back to what he knows about the prince to make this estimate.

Gonna lump this in with some other quotes below, but Ned thinking that Rhaegar wasn't the type to visit brothels is barely a positive remembrance at all.

On 8/3/2017 at 6:35 PM, cgrav said:

1) he *does* think of Rhaegar, and not once does he think something negative. When Robert first wants to kill Dany, Ned rebuffs him (Ned II). Later on Ned is more disturbed by Robert's enduring anger than anything Rhaegar did (Ned VIII). When visiting Barra's royal bastard he wonders and doubts if Rhaegar visited brothels (Ned IX). If there were any time for Ned to express his hate for Rhaegar, one of those conversations would have been it. Instead he actively protects Dany, despite his deep sense of duty. 

 

On 8/3/2017 at 6:35 PM, cgrav said:

Rhaegar comes up in thought and conversation a number of times, in fact more than any POV other than Dany's. So it's patently false that Ned doesn't think about Rhaegar. And you'd think if he felt that Rhaegar killed his sister, his thoughts would stray from neutral recollection. He even has praise for Arthur Dayne, which makes no sense at all if he was indeed Lyanna's gaoler. Considering very honorable people like Barristan and Jon Con still think fondly of Rhaegar doesn't help your case, either.

Name one single time that Ned Stark thinks a specific thought about Rhaegar aside from him not being he type to visit brothels.  We are in Ned's head!  If Rhaegar comes up, and a specific thought isn't associated with him, then we have no evidence.  Ned is clearly traumatized by his experiences in Robert's Rebellion and the loss of his family, which is why he keeps his remaining family close, and would also explain why he doesn't think of his sister or brother or father very often, either.  He's blocking those memories.  This is why we don't get certain POVs - because certain thoughts and plans would give away big plot twists/conspiracies.  If Ned isn't being shown thinking about Rhaegar, actively thinking about him, then not only are we supposed to accept that, but accept that it's reasonable for Ned not to think about him despite him coming up in conversation relatively often.  If someone mentions my grandmother to me in conversation, I don't immediately digress into a long internal monologue about how much I love her.  Why should Ned be any different re: Rhaegar, especially after 16 years?

And he protects Dany because of his sense of duty (and honor).  He doesn't believe in killing children.  And Barristan and JonCon are as biased of sources as Robert; JonCon because he's in love with his silver prince, and Barristan because he's mentally excused himself for aiding and abetting the Mad King by convincing himself that he did it because Rhaegar would have been a perfect king and would have retroactively excused all the bad Aerys did.

On 8/3/2017 at 4:32 PM, Ygrain said:

Again, you are leaving out the context. It's on the way back from the brothel, and Ned is terribly disillusioned with Robert, for his whoring. And then, from a very clear disapproval of Robert's whoring, he goes to making an estimate about Rhaegar not whoring - i.e., he sees that his dead sister's betrothed, who is also his best friend, is flawed, and then gives her rapist some points for not possessing the flaw? How come that he even thinks about the betrothed and the rapist in the lines of comparing them in any way at all? And why does he compare them in terms of promiscuity, with the rapist coming off as the better man? Such lines of thinking make no sense at all, unless he is, in fact, comparing Lyanna's partners.

 Well, to be clear, Ned never is of the opinion that Robert is perfect, or that Lyanna would have been his true love.  Quite the opposite, and it is specifically because of his philandering.  And the comparison makes perfect sense; here are the two men who claimed to love Lyanna; Robert, who loves her memory in the present, being compared to Rhaegar, who claimed to love her in the past.  And Ned does not say that Rhaegar was "the better man".  All he says is that Rhaegar wasn't into whores.  First off, one can attribute a positive quality to a hated enemy, and second, it's more than possible that 16 years of raising Rhaegar's son has softened his opinion on the father.

On 8/3/2017 at 4:32 PM, Ygrain said:

I love my son dearly but that doesn't mean I've softened to my ex. And although I am reminded of his existence on a daily basis, I don't spend that much time remembering him, either.

PS. It's 14, not 16.

Ah, so you are saying that despite the fact that a reminder of your ex comes up every day, you don't actually think of him?  Kind of like, I don't know, mentions of Rhaegar coming up often don't actually lead Ned to think an active thought about him?

And while you're emotions towards your ex are obviously your own (and perfectly valid in my book), that doesn't mean (a) that everyone ends up feeling as you do, and (b) that Ned is even in the same boat.  After all, it's not his ex-lover, it's his sister's.  The fact that Rhaegar seems to have cared about Lyanna, maybe, might also be a mitigating factor.

And... Ned Stark dies in 299 AC.  Jon is born 283.  That is at least 15 and probably 16 years.  Just because Ned is out of Winterfell doesn't mean he stops being Jon's "father", same as his participating in the Greyjoy Rebellion doesn't shave off a year of "raising him".

[cpg2016]

On 8/4/2017 at 9:18 AM, WeKnowNothing said:

It is heavily implied that the houses Stark, Baratheon, Arryn and Tully (maybe Lannister) were planning something against the crown, which is shown in all the marriages and fosterings between them all. these were houses (especially Stark) that never married outside their own territories and bannermen. So the fact that they were doing so now raised suspicion. They didn't have to be planning to remove Aerys from the throne, maybe it could have just been fighting for more power and recognition for their own houses.

No, all that is "implied" is that the Starks, Baratheons, Tullys, Arryns, and hopefully Lannisters (Lysa was supposed to marry Jaime) were forming unusually close and extensive marital/familial ties.  And the Starks absolutely marry outside the North, though not always willingly.  What they are likely doing is joining together for mutual defense against external enemies and against the Crown.  Remember, at this point, the Targaryens have an abysmal recent record as feudal kings.  They totally abandoned the Starks and Lannisters to deal with Dagon Greyjoy in the reign of Aerys I.  Aegon IV runs roughshod over all of his vassals, taking land from one to give to another based on who his current mistress was.  Aegon V pisses off many of his vassals with broken marriage contracts (not his fault, but still an insult), and more importantly, by trying to restrict their rights and powers.  And then you've got Aerys II, someone who exhibits the Targaryen madness from an early age (though it's tempered by charm when he's young).  If you're a great lord of the realm, of course you're worried.  But again, this doesn't imply an active plot, or even a passive one, against the crown.  They only even bother to crown Robert when it becomes clear that the entire Targaryen dynasty is going to fight to preserve Aerys' mad reign.

On 8/4/2017 at 9:18 AM, WeKnowNothing said:

If he seriously thought Rhaegar raped and kidnapped his sister, he wouldn't just remain silent (both outloud and in his internal monologue) about it. He would atleast have a little rage like Robert or have hateful thoughts of Rhaegar in his thoughts. But he doesn't. Not at all.

You're making a conclusion without bridging the gap.  You are asserting that Ned has to have hateful thoughts about Rhaegar every time his name comes up.  This isn't true, because...

On 8/4/2017 at 9:18 AM, WeKnowNothing said:

And Rhaegar being a traumatic memory is no excuse for not thinking about him. Almost every single POV character in this story has traumatic memories, yet they still think of these memories in their internal thoughts. So the fact that Ned doesn't, just remains quite about it, and doesn't have any anger at all for the man who 'raped' his sister - is a big clue on Rhaegar and Lyanna being a willing and loving relationship.

This total, absolute, complete bullshit.  Go talk to a psychologist, and they will tell you, people react differently to their trauma's.  In fact, people can change their opinions on things.  Look at Sansa; when Sandor kisses her, it's clearly an uninvited and unwelcome advance.  But later on she thinks of it more fondly.

As someone else said, an absence of evidence, isn't evidence.  Ned doesn't think about Rhaegar.  Not positively or negatively; even that brothel comment is pretty neutral, all things considered.  At the time, Ned thinks Rhaegar is insulting his sister at Harrenhal, and Brandon certainly considers the whole thing an abduction (and, therefore, by definition rape as well).  All those years later, we have no real reaction at all.  But it is horseshit to say that him not hating Rhaegar at every possible moment, as Robert does, is evidence one way or another for their relationship.  Again, people have different coping mechanisms - and given that Ned clearly cares for Jon, it's not out of the question that this has softened his opinion on Rhaegar.  Or that his coping mechanism is to block out bad memories (which... is absolutely a real thing).

On 8/4/2017 at 9:18 AM, WeKnowNothing said:

Actually, Dayne and Whent were not even there when Ned's father and brother were burnt alive. They were with Rhaegar and Lyanna in the ToJ, and stay there for the entire rebellion. Only Hightower was there, and Ned doesn't have any dislike or hatred for him being there during the burning - instead he was one of the "marvels" and "shining lessons to the world" that he talks about. And Ned DOES dislike those who follow kings orders - he had a huge issue with Jaime doing so, which you didn't seem to notice.

Sorry, I was being generic in referring to the Kingsguard as a whole.

That being said, the point stands.  The Kingsguard were all willing to aid and abet Aerys in burning other people, or in raping and mutilating his own wife, so why would they lift a finger for someone else?  Ned and every other person in Westeros would be 100% justified in expecting Dayne and Whent to be passive participants in burning the Starks.

And which order is he not happy about which Jaime follows?  He doesn't like Jaime because Jaime violates his oath, despite that oath being to the man Eddard is coming to depose and almost certainly kill.  If anything, that is further evidence for my point - Ned, the man of honor, believes that the Kingsguard who stick by their oath despite what it makes them do, are more honorable than the man who disobeys his.  

[cgrav]

3 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Gonna lump this in with some other quotes below, but Ned thinking that Rhaegar wasn't the type to visit brothels is barely a positive remembrance at all.

But where are the negative thoughts? You contend that Ned believes Rhaegar abducted and raped Lyanna to death, but the worst of his thoughts are that Rhaegar wasn't into whores, and that the guy guarding Lyanna was the finest knight he'd ever seen. Where's the negativity? He doesn't have to express strong negativity, but you're telling us that it's there without being able to show us. Is Ned's hate for Rhaegar manifest in some action or other thought of his? 

You're not making an affirmative argument here, only showing factual and logistical gray areas. A point doesn't stand on mere possibility.

I think you're applying an excessive standard of historicity on these events, which is inappropriate for literature. In literature we are supposed to read into the details and search for thematic consistency, whil history requires eschewing the use of themes to guide factual interpretation. In other words, things like the roses in Lyanna's death scene matter. We don't get to dismiss such details that contradict our conclusions.

[cpg2016]

40 minutes ago, cgrav said:

But where are the negative thoughts? You contend that Ned believes Rhaegar abducted and raped Lyanna to death, but the worst of his thoughts are that Rhaegar wasn't into whores, and that the guy guarding Lyanna was the finest knight he'd ever seen. Where's the negativity? He doesn't have to express strong negativity, but you're telling us that it's there without being able to show us. Is Ned's hate for Rhaegar manifest in some action or other thought of his? 

You're not making an affirmative argument here, only showing factual and logistical gray areas. A point doesn't stand on mere possibility.

I think you're applying an excessive standard of historicity on these events, which is inappropriate for literature. In literature we are supposed to read into the details and search for thematic consistency, whil history requires eschewing the use of themes to guide factual interpretation. In other words, things like the roses in Lyanna's death scene matter. We don't get to dismiss such details that contradict our conclusions.

I already gave you my explanation - Ned is traumatized by his entire experience leading up to and during the Rebellion, and with good reason, and as a result he's compensated by repressing thoughts of everyone involved (he barely thinks of Brandon or Rickard or Lyanna, either), as well as not allowing his children to leave home, as it seems would be traditional (in terms of fostering Robb or Bran).

And I never made the argument that Ned hates Rhaegar - you and others are trying to assert that Ned's only possible reaction to what Rhaegar did, 16 years later, is Robert-style, unadultered hatred.  And I'm saying life and people are complicated and react in different ways; you'd say the same thing about kidnap victims, but we know Stockholm Syndrome is a thing.  Hell, maybe Lyanna had that - doesn't make it any less a kidnapping.

And I agree with you that the roses in Lyanna's death scene matter - but they are symbols of Jon, not Rhaegar's "love" for Lyanna.  And whether you want to apply a modern standard or not, if he carries her off at swordpoint that constitutes rape.  

We have literally no reliable evidence for what happened, in either direction.  We have plenty of confusion, which I'm sure is what the authorial intent is.  I am making my claim based on the circumstances - in other words, that all of Rhaegar and Lyanna's actions are illogical if they are eloping (there is no need for secrecy, why the Tower of Joy for a dangerous pregnancy, etc) but make perfect sense if Lyanna is being held hostage.

No one has bothered to refute that, or has failed utterly in trying to do so.  I've seen you and others make a bunch of claims that are based on ambiguous textual evidence - e.g. the blue roses, which could be either.  And while I know it's dangerous to try and get into the heads of characters we aren't given a POV for, or even much information at all, it's a worthwhile exercise.  The main claim for Lyanna (who to this point had shown nothing at all in her character that implies she'd elope with someone except being a bit of a tomboy) being a part of this is that she has a nebulous "touch of the wolf blood", which somehow translates into her breaking every social norm in the book.  Mind you, this is the same girl who is upset that her fiance is sleeping around and having bastard children - all of a sudden all her previous morals mean nothing, and she's willing to be the mistress and give birth to the bastard?

As I said, there is nothing in the text either way that definitely says Lyanna was abducted.  But for her to be a willing participant means most of the actors act irrationally, or against previously stated beliefs, and that is suspicious to me.  If one explanation works perfectly and explains why everyone acted in a certain way and has it all come out nice and logically, and the other doesn't, I don't see a reason to continue trying to fit a square peg into a round hole for the sake of a broken theory.  I've pointed out a bunch of times that Rhaegar's actions in bringing Lyanna to the ToJ are not rational, make no sense, and put his "lover" and child in an extremely large amount of mostly avoidable physical danger.  No one has come up with a refutation for that, either.

[Ygrain]

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Yes, because Dany wants to be rescued, and she's into "bad boys" .  But the point is, she thinks Lyanna was taken at swordpoint - which means, by definition, this is an abduction and therefore rape.  One cannot give valid consent at the point of a sword.

So imagine that Daario would indeed swoop in to carry Dany off and use his sword against the guards. Would Dany be taken at swordpoint? And would she be raped? Really?

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

It sounds as if most of the crowd thought that Rhaegar crowning Lyanna was an insult - Robert certainly does, Ned does, Brandon does, and the phrase "that's when all the smiles died" is definitely indicative.

Yep, her family and betrothed are certainly not happy about it. The question is, did all the people stopped smiling because they felt it was an insult to Lyanna, or were they shocked because Rhaegar was supposed to crown his own wife, and therefore the one publically slighted was Elia?

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

And by the way, it isn't all that plausible that he's out there challenging everyone who he thinks is into someone he feels protective of.  Because we know that the other time it happens, he isn't the one insisting on it.  He knows Littlefinger is obsessed with Cat (it seems to be an open secret at Riverrun), and doesn't go around demanding he come out to die.

Well, I must have missed the part when Brandon learns that LF slept with his girl, nor does anyone seem to know about it except Lysa who thinks that LF called her Cat by accident.

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

And it is absurd to think Lyanna doesn't have some kind of escort.  This is the same year, I believe, as the one in which the Kingswood Brotherhood is going about abducting and ransoming noble ladies.  Obviously Lyanna isn't near the Kingswood (plus they've already been defeated), but Lord Stark isn't letting his daughter roam around a foreign kingdom on her own.

You mean, like he isn't letting her spar with Benjen, train with rings, beat other people's squires or enter tourneys as a mystery knight?

If Lyanna was officially travelling, then she had an escort. If she sneaked out on her own, she didn't.

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

And I don't know why you think Brandon has weird priorities.  Because he doesn't ride up and demand to see Lyanna?  That only doesn't make sense if you presuppose Lyanna is a willing participant.  As with all arguments in favor of Lyanna's complicity, they only make sense if you assume beforehand that Lyanna eloped.  In a vacuum, Brandon's actions make perfect sense (I mean, once you accept he's riding to the Red Keep in the first place).  He thinks Rhaegar kidnapped his sister; he has to deal with him before he can get his sister back.  Same way hostage negotiators don't ask to negotiate with the hostages.

Nice strawman there. I didn't say that Brandon should have wanted to talk to Lyanna or negotiate with her; I said that he should have done what negotiators usually do when someone gets abducted - demand that the person is released. - Not to mention that killing Rhaegar in front of a fortress full of Targaryen loyalists doesn't really arrange Lyanna's release.

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Right, there is one other person, who isn't attending to the birth, or else she would be with Lyanna, and not in a position to
"find" Ned with her.  Real great midwife, who is not with the pregnant woman.  Plus, what little evidence we have points to that person being Wylla, who is a wet nurse.

I'm getting the feeling that you are being intentionally obtuse. Not "one other person" but "at least one other person" because "they" means "two or more", comprendo?

Next, nowhere is it stated that Lyanna died right in the delivery, it could have been quite a while afterwards (most likely, because one doesn't get fever immediately, and the fever that took her strength must have lasted for quite some time).

Finally, I never heard that being a wetnurse prevented people from knowledge/skill in any other area. 

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

I'm not sure how you make this argument and miss the obvious implications inherent in it.  You are arguing that Lyanna needs to be hidden until their relationship is so secure as to be a fait accompli that everyone HAS to accept.  Which is fine, but you aren't actually thinking this through.  Why doesn't Rhaegar just marry Lyanna and then reappear?  The obvious answer is that he cannot, as he's married to Elia and polygamy is violently frowned on by the Faith.

Yeah? And where is this stated? And what do they do except the frowning, close their eyes and do as they are told, exactly like they do with the Targaryen incest?

 

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 And even if he wanted to try, why not just marry her at the Red Keep, or Oldtown, or wherever?

Did you somehow miss that part of my argument that anywhere within Aerys' reach, the marriage can be forbidden by the king?

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 Why the Tower of Joy?  

I never claimed they married at ToJ, I claimed they were hiding there, and not necessarily for the whole time.

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

And if she's pregnant, she isn't immediately unable to travel; we know Westerosi women travel even when heavily pregnant.  So if your argument is that they're waiting until everyone will have to accept their relationship, you have to explain why they don't bother leaving the Tower once that goal is achieved.

The hazards of traveling during risky pregnancy aside, getting pregnant rarely happens immediately and then it takes some time (usually the first three months) to establish the pregnancy with certainty. And by that time, the Rebellion was under way.

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 And from the perspective of the Baratheons and the Starks, two powerful Targaryen vassals, Rhaegar just definitely abducted their fiance/daughter, and Rhaegar 100% knew this would be the reaction when he did it; what makes you think he's obeying any orders?  He just spat in the face of both law and tradition.

First and foremost, there is no law against polygamy. If you want to prove the contrary, provide a quote from GRRM overriding the former SSM that as for polygamy, "there was and is precedent".

Second, defying tradition and whatever is not the same as disobeying the king's direct order.

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

See, this doesn't make sense either.  The Rebellion doesn't start because of Lyanna's abduction, it starts because Aerys extra-legally kills two of his vassals, and calls for killing two more.  

I never said it started because of Lyanna. I said that if Aerys got Lyanna in his paws, he could threaten to harm her to get Ned and Robert back in line. Or he might harm her just because, mad king. Either way, very bad deal for Lyanna.

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

If anything, Lyanna is a valuable chip for Rhaegar to calm hostilities... say, by showing that Lyanna is a willing participant in eloping.  

And how is this going to calm the situation which, as you have just said yourself, "starts because Aerys extra-legally kills two of his vassals, and calls for killing two more"? How does Lyanna being a willing participant erase the deaths of Rickard and Brandon or appease Aerys not to ask Ned and Robert's heads?

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

And while Aerys is paranoid about Rhaegar's ambitions, he just definitively showed he places Rhaegar above anything else in the Kingdoms, by murdering Brandon and Rickard for calling for justice.

You're mixing apples and pears. Aerys' paranoia apparently never went far enough as to have Rhaegar killed, or tolerate anybody else killing him. And as long as Rhaegar is Aerys' heir, then any attack against Rhaegar is, in fact, an attack against Aerys himself and cannot be tolerated. No king would tolerate such a thing.

However, since Aerys was so paranoid about his son's intentions, he would certainly welcome something that would give him leverage against Rhaegar to keep him in check, and a woman whom Rhaegar loves (unlike poor Elia) could be just the thing. 

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

And again, your whole argument relies on Rhaegar's political needs.  Nowhere in that passage does anything reflect what is best for Lyanna.  I agree with you entirely that Rhaegar can't let Aerys or Robert/Ned know where Lyanna is - but that's is what is best for Rhaegar.  It's not even remotely in Lyanna's best interest.  

Well, I beg to disagree - I believe it was definitely in Lyanna's best interest not to be captured by the guy who gets aroused by burning people and who has zero scrupules even against his own family.

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

She can't possibly be averse to letting her family know she's okay, alive, and a willing participant in all this.  What, is her plan to be estranged from her family forever?  Why in the world wouldn't she send word to them that she's eloped?  Especially if she knows that it's helping spark off a war in which half her family and thousands more people are dying?  A war in which her entire family will likely be exterminated if they lose?

Oh? And where is it stated that she didn't inform her family, or at least didn't attempt to? We don't know Rickard's reaction, we don't know what Ned or Benjen knew, all we have is Brandon riding to KL like an idiot. Which may mean:

- a communication failure (a message lost, or intercepted, or faked)

- Brandon not believing the message

- Brandon learning about Lyanna from another source and leaving prior her message arrived

- Brandon being pissed that Rhaegar did with his sister what he himself had done with Barbrey and riding out to avenge the family honour

- something else I haven't thought of

So far, we don't know. We just don't. Nothing implies that she communicated her intention, nothing implies that she didn't. We don't know. What we do know is that Ned thinks she was wilful and her wolf blood led her to an early grave, which would be a horrible victim-blaming to say about a girl kidnapped and raped.

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Well, they had to ride there, of course.

Doesn't mean they rode directly. 

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

But it is heavily implied they've been there the entire time. 

I'm afraid not. You are making a lot of assumptions based on incomplete information.

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Gerold Hightower finds them there,

That's one of them assumptions. Gerold Hightower was sent to find Rhaegar at some point, and at another point we learn he was at ToJ. It says absolutely nothing about his - or Rhaegar's - location between the two points.

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

and Lyanna doesn't leave until giving birth.

However, it is unknown at which point she arrived, so again, nothing certain here.

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 So even if they spend a couple weeks somewhere else, it's unimportant in the scheme of things; the ultimately locate there,

A couple of weeks, or a couple of months? Since their whereabouts are so far unknown, such claims are unbased.

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

and Rhaegar chooses to have Lyanna give birth there.

He does? And is it really his choice, or dire necessity? And how do you know that Lyanna had no say in it? Again, assumptions.

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Any castle provides a vantage point that can see a long way away - it's one of the functions of a castle.  As I think has been definitively proven, Rhaegar does not need a "secluded" structure, he needs a safe place with people he trusts.  That is, of course, if we assume Lyanna is a willing participant.  Seclusion is meaningless if Lyanna is a willing participant, since no one will recognize her and she won't spill the beans.

A castle is inhabited by tens to hundreds people. There is no way to make sure that none of them ever talks. Even if they don't recognize Lyanna, what about Rhaegar himself or the Kingsguard? It would be enough if someone mentioned in a tavern that prince Rhaegar was visiting, and the news spread. "Someone always tells", remember? 

And BTW, ToJ as "a safe place with people he trusts" worked just fine, until Ned somehow learned (or rather, someone told him).

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 Since he's almost certainly sourcing supplies from a nearby castle (Nightsong or Kingsgrave), we have to wonder why he isn't actually in those castles. 

"Almost certainly" is again an unbased assumption. One doesn't need to go to a castle to get supplies. 

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

And by the way, we have no evidence that Rhaegar knows the Tower of Joy "well".  It's rather unlikely that he does.  He knows Summerhall and its environs well, but that's the only other place besides Dragonstone and Kings Landing that we know Rhaegar spends time in.

But he has Arthur Dayne with him, and Arthur Dayne travelling from Dorne could have been familiar with the Prince's Pass.

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 Well, to be clear, Ned never is of the opinion that Robert is perfect,

Again, not what I said. The problem is that only now, Ned becomes fully aware of the depths on Robert's flaws.

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

or that Lyanna would have been his true love.  Quite the opposite, and it is specifically because of his philandering.

Except that this is exactly what he was trying to convince Lyanna about: that Robert was a good man and would be a good husband. Perhaps at that moment, he was trying to convince himself, as well.

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 And the comparison makes perfect sense; here are the two men who claimed to love Lyanna; Robert, who loves her memory in the present, being compared to Rhaegar, who claimed to love her in the past.  

Since when do we give it to the rapists that they may love their victims?

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

And Ned does not say that Rhaegar was "the better man".  All he says is that Rhaegar wasn't into whores.  First off, one can attribute a positive quality to a hated enemy, and second, it's more than possible that 16 years of raising Rhaegar's son has softened his opinion on the father.

Still missing the point. Ned doesn't approve of whoring. Ned doesn't approve of Robert's whoring. And then he thinks that Rhaegar wasn't into whoring. Why the hell does he think about Rhaegar at all? If there was a discussion about Rhaegar's character, it would be a valid thought, but not in the context of Robert's shortcomings. Rhaegar has absolutely no place there, Ned doesn't need to give him any points because the situation has nothing to do with Rhaegar. - Unless, there is that link you have pointed out yourself: a comparison of two men who loved Lyanna. So, try to put yourself in the shoes of a brother whose sister died as a result of abduction and rape: would you believe that the guy really loved your sister?

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Ah, so you are saying that despite the fact that a reminder of your ex comes up every day, you don't actually think of him?  Kind of like, I don't know, mentions of Rhaegar coming up often don't actually lead Ned to think an active thought about him?

Don't swap "think" and "remember", please.

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

And... Ned Stark dies in 299 AC.  Jon is born 283.  That is at least 15 and probably 16 years.  Just because Ned is out of Winterfell doesn't mean he stops being Jon's "father", same as his participating in the Greyjoy Rebellion doesn't shave off a year of "raising him".

You're right, the quote about "fourteen years old lies" comes on the way from Winterfell and Jon's fifteenth birthday passes. So, 15 it should be.

 

BTW, sorry for parsing your reply into such bits but you really take too many things for granted and don't look at the information critically. So, if you want a tl;dr version why Rhaegar didn't rape Lyanna:

- she was wilful and her wolf blood led her to an early grave

- Rhaegar remembered in an internal monologue in which he thematically doesn't fit unless he was Lyanna's lover, not a rapist

- Lyanna clutching onto roses on her deathbed

- the depiction of Rhaegar by other people (e.g. Jorah comparing Dany to Rhaegar when she was saving women from rape)

If you want a little food for thought, then perhaps also this one:

“What did any Targaryen ever know of honor? Go down into your crypt and ask Lyanna about the dragon’s honor!”
“You avenged Lyanna at the Trident,” Ned said, halting beside the king. Promise me, Ned, she had whispered.

[cgrav]

39 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

I already gave you my explanation - Ned is traumatized by his entire experience leading up to and during the Rebellion

This is pretty much the epitome of a circumstantial argument - your argument is held together only by the assumption of its own correctness. You haven't shown evidence that actually points to your conclusion, rather just a bunch of things that require your conclusion to make any sense together. The fact that something goes unstated does not mean we get to invent explanations for why. You're making a massive and very specific assumption without any affirmative evidence. 

The amnesia contention is just absurd because opens too big of a door when it comes to who knows what and when. This is on the level of Bloodraven or Bran secretly being every consequential character. 

It is also completely senseless for GRRM to give us the straightforward fact and then obfuscate it with inconsistent explanations and symbols. What is the point of this dramatic tension if the truth was stated openly at the outset?

I feel it's pretty clear why they had to keep it secret: Rhaegar was married and Lyanna was betrothed. This is Tawdry Affair 101. Even without the political angles, it shouldn't be surprising that two committed people are trying to hide their affair.

And how does secrecy make any sense for a hostage? The whole point of taking a hostage is that everyone knows!

The long and short of this is that you are filling the story's gaps with your assumptions and asking the rest of us to disprove them. You need stronger textual evidence. As I've said many times, if a theory relies entirely on logistical possibility and lack of specific contradiction, it's probably wrong.

You could replace "Rhaegar" with "alien spacecraft" and your argument would be exactly as strong.

[spauldo17]

On ‎7‎/‎31‎/‎2017 at 9:36 PM, cpg2016 said:

OK.  Lets break down all the ways this is wrong.

First off, Jon is not an heir.  I cannot stress this enough.  The fact that Lyanna is an important noble lady with royal blood in her veins means diddly squat when it comes to succession rights.  Baby Aegon is the heir, and most likely Viserys after him (the various Great Council's have set a pretty iron precedent on female inheritance).  Jon is nothing.  This isn't a matter of conflicting opinions, this is fact.  Jon is no more eligible to inherit the Iron Throne or anything of Rhaegar's or Lyanna's, than Gendry is a candidate for the Iron Throne.  Being a bastard is explicitly in order to exclude one from succession.  The only way to change this is through royal decree (e.g. Robb declaring Jon Snow a trueborn Stark and heir to the North), which is such a significant event that we have to assume it did not happen, else we'd have heard of Aerys legitimizing Jon.

Secondly, your logic is downright awful.  Why would Lyanna and Rhaegar expect a war?  Their running off didn't start a war, Aerys' immolating of Rickard and Brandon, and calls for the execution of Ned and Robert, do.  So your timing is, again, just wrong.  They're not escaping to safety, and anyway, there is no reason the Red Keep is any more or less safe than the Tower of Joy, which sits on the edge of the Stormlands.

Literally everything in the paragraph I just quoted of yours makes no sense or is outright, incontrovertibly wrong.  And, I'll point out, it's all presupposed on the idea that Rhaegar and Lyanna are "in love, and have plans for their child" which is by no means assured.  Rhaegar certainly does, Lyanna less so.

Except none of your argument makes sense.  Firstly, why is it the "safest" place to complete a pregnancy?  Childbirth has a massive mortality rate, and (and I can't stress this enough) no one is trying to kill Lyanna!  She's in no danger, at all, from anyone.  The Starks and Baratheons are looking to rescue her.  

So Lyanna is about to undergo an extremely dangerous process (giving birth) with no medical support, no maester, no midwife that we know of, no nothing.  She has no friends, no family, nothing by her to help her through.  So we can outright discount the idea that this is a "safe" place.  What it is, is an "isolated" place, which are not always the same thing.  Either she's being hidden, or is hiding.   And if she was there willingly, why the hell does she need 3 armed guards and only three?  They are clearly not enough to defend her if an enemy comes calling, as is clear IOTL.  So they're not "protecting her" in any real sense.  You know what three armed men can do?  Prevent an unarmed, pregnant woman from running off.

We have no reliable evidence one way or the other, so our only hope is to examine the circumstances.  For your story to be correct, you have to twist the bounds of logic in every possible instance in order for it to make sense.  Why the Tower of Joy?  You say it's safe, but from what?  There is nothing to be "safe" from since when they go, there is no war and no threat.  But if I don't want my hostage being found, well, a tower in the middle of nowhere makes perfect sense.

I know what the small, important difference is.  And it's an awful point.  Look, is Lyanna planning on spending the rest of her life on the run (from people who don't want to kill her or harm her, no less)?  If the baby isn't secret, why keep the pregnancy secret?  What possible difference could it make to be in the Red Keep, or Oldtown?  Oldtown is equally far if not farther from the Stormlands and the North (and therefore, the people looking for her).  It has adequate medical care for a teenaged girl who is about to go through an incredibly dangerous process of giving birth, which will in fact kill her IOTL and certainly wouldn't have been far from the mind of Lyanna or Rhaegar (who is only doing this because Elia cannot give birth again).

So again, lets list all the unbelievably enormous plot holes in your random assortment of musings (which fall short of being a theory).  Who is Lyanna being protected from, and why?  Why isn't she being taken somewhere with adequate medical facilities?  What, exactly, is the plan post-partum on the part of Rhaegar and Lyanna?  Rhaegar especially has a kingdom to help run, not to mention a pre-existing wife and kids.

All of which are meant to tip us off to Jon's identity.

I'm not even denying that Rhaegar cared for Lyanna.  It is more than possible, even likely, that he did.  But he's the jailor, so his feelings are totally immaterial, in the same way that a rapist might "love" his or her victim, but still be violating them.

We have no effing clue what she told Ned except that she told him to hide Jon.  Again, you have yet to prove how this has anything, at all, to do with her feelings for Rhaegar.  She loves her son, no matter where he came from.  Ask any mother how they feel about their kids and you'll understand why she might love Jon without loving Rhaegar.

Says who?  I say they'd be a reminder of home, the home she was being forcibly denied.  You have an opinion here, not a piece of evidence, and weak one at that.

Mind you, what else is she supposed to do?  She's dying and she knows it.  She has only one thing in the whole room that gives her any joy, and it's those flowers (which, remember.... almost certainly weren't given to her by Rhaegar, they being months old at this point).

Well, we really don't.  We have an opinion from someone who didn't know, and who has every reason to idolize and think the best of Rhaegar, but I'm not expecting you to grasp the concept of an unreliable narrator when you've already so conspicuously failed to grasp the timing of the narrative, or the basic facts of inheritance that are explicitly laid down in the text, or anything like that.

Well, actually, he writes it both ways, no doesn't he.  Because plenty of characters fight and war and die on the assumption she was kidnapped.

Here is a narrative that has no holes in it.  Rhaegar reads about the Prince that was Promised, and believes that, like the Targaryen sigil, it has "three heads" or in other words, it's three kids.  This is about as explicit as we can have.  So here he is, with two kids with his wife Elia, when he's told another childbirth will likely kill her.  Well, he's still short one Targaryen kid, so what does he do?  He starts casting about for another baby mama.  Maybe he reads a prophecy called "the song of ice and fire", which is heavily implied, and naturally thinks about the Starks.  Anyway, he sets up the Harrenhal tourney for a totally separate reason, but sees his chance.  Maybe Lyanna is a little taken with him, since hes a handsome prince who fits the bill for "perfect Westerosi male" literally to a T.  He finds out from a member of the Stark household that Lyanna loves blue winter roses; not difficult, it's clearly common knowledge in Winterfell, since Ned is aware of it despite barely seeing his sister for about 10 years.  He gives them to her as part of his seduction.  All well and good.  Everyone rides off, and Rhaegar accosts Lyanna's party in the Riverlands, and since at least two of the men with him are warriors nearly without peer (Arthur Dayne and Oswell Whent), and he has the authority of the Iron Throne on his side besides, Lyanna's retainers flee or give her up.  Here's where your ramblings bread down and mine doesn't.  Rhaegar, having kidnapped Lyanna, now needs a place that is isolated; he needs both for her not to be found, and for her not to be able to get away or get word to her family.  In your version, Rhaegar can take her literally anywhere, because she's a willing participant and won't inform anyone of her whereabouts anyway, so there's no risk of being caught.  There is no reason for someone at, say... a random house in Oldtown to know who she is, because why would they?  And if she's not telling, then she's just some mistress of Rhaegar's that he understandably wants hidden.  But if she's not willing, then he needs her in a place where she can't tell anyone her identity and arouse suspicion.  

So anyway, he takes her to a tiny tower as far from her home as he possibly can.  Remember, there is no war going on now, and no real possibility of one, because the abduction only indirectly sets off the war (e.g. if Aerys promised justice to RIckard for Rhaegar's actions, everything would've been hunky dory).  So again... a lot of your justification for their location goes out the window.  Again.  So Rhaegar takes this young woman, this girl, into the middle of nowhere, with no medical help, no nothing.  And here is where my argument gets stronger still - because his concern is the kid.  He's a melancholy guy, it's not really in him to love or be happy, to paraphrase Barristan.  But he cares about saving the world.  So he thinks prophecy is on his side, which means, one way or another, the kid is going to live.  And guess what!  The kid does live, despite the mother's death, so give Rhaegar a gold star for being a little genre savvy.  So here they are in Dorne.  Now, if Rhaegar's true aim is to protect Lyanna, then he should send a troop of guards down there to lock down the Tower.  Because twenty men are better than three, however skilled the three.  And here's another place your argument breaks down.  Because he doesn't do that.  He leaves three Kingsguard down there, who have nothing to recommend them as a defensive force except their loyalty to him personally.  He doesn't have to worry about them blabbing to a friend or merchant, who might get the rumor out.  Even though 15 men would be better to protect Lyanna, they are less reliable when it comes to imprisoning her.  They might be susceptible to gold or rewards or anything at all, but Rhaegar can have iron confidence in these Kingsguard, who after all we're perfectly content to watch Aerys burn people alive and rape his wife without a peep.

So off Rhaegar goes, and dies.  Maybe he says Lyanna's name as he dies because he loves her, maybe because he wants her to give birth to the savior of the world.  Who knows, it is literally entirely unimportant, because Rhaegar's actions aren't what we care about, because he's got total agency throughout this story.  Your ENTIRE argument hinges on the fact that Lyanna is clutching blue winter roses as she dies, and that furthermore, she is clutching them because they symbolize her love of Rhaegar, as opposed to the equally plausible idea that they symbolize something else, or nothing at all.

The circumstantial evidence ALL points to Lyanna being an unwilling occupant of the Tower of Joy,  Every single argument has a hole in it a mile wide.  One could be coincidence.  But at every step, Rhaegar and Lyanna's actions make no sense if Lyanna is a willing participant here.

Look, bro. You can tell me my logic is flawed all you want, or that my arguments don't make sense.  But you're simply spinning up a deluded version of the facts to support your desires.  Quite frankly, that's fine by me.  It's pretty clear from the literary clues that they were in love, and the ToJ decision was joint.  You don't have to agree, to be blunt I'd prefer you didn't because your asinine lapses of logic aren't something I want on my side anyway.

Though you and I wont return to this conversation, I take solace knowing that when the books, or the show, spell it out unequivocally for you, you will be proven an utter, and helpless, fool on this matter. Good day 

[WeKnowNothing]

On 7 August 2017 at 4:49 PM, cpg2016 said:

No, all that is "implied" is that the Starks, Baratheons, Tullys, Arryns, and hopefully Lannisters (Lysa was supposed to marry Jaime) were forming unusually close and extensive marital/familial ties.  And the Starks absolutely marry outside the North, though not always willingly.  What they are likely doing is joining together for mutual defense against external enemies and against the Crown.  Remember, at this point, the Targaryens have an abysmal recent record as feudal kings.  They totally abandoned the Starks and Lannisters to deal with Dagon Greyjoy in the reign of Aerys I.  Aegon IV runs roughshod over all of his vassals, taking land from one to give to another based on who his current mistress was.  Aegon V pisses off many of his vassals with broken marriage contracts (not his fault, but still an insult), and more importantly, by trying to restrict their rights and powers.  And then you've got Aerys II, someone who exhibits the Targaryen madness from an early age (though it's tempered by charm when he's young).  If you're a great lord of the realm, of course you're worried.  But again, this doesn't imply an active plot, or even a passive one, against the crown.  They only even bother to crown Robert when it becomes clear that the entire Targaryen dynasty is going to fight to preserve Aerys' mad reign.

You're making a conclusion without bridging the gap.  You are asserting that Ned has to have hateful thoughts about Rhaegar every time his name comes up.  This isn't true, because...

This total, absolute, complete bullshit.  Go talk to a psychologist, and they will tell you, people react differently to their trauma's.  In fact, people can change their opinions on things.  Look at Sansa; when Sandor kisses her, it's clearly an uninvited and unwelcome advance.  But later on she thinks of it more fondly.

As someone else said, an absence of evidence, isn't evidence.  Ned doesn't think about Rhaegar.  Not positively or negatively; even that brothel comment is pretty neutral, all things considered.  At the time, Ned thinks Rhaegar is insulting his sister at Harrenhal, and Brandon certainly considers the whole thing an abduction (and, therefore, by definition rape as well).  All those years later, we have no real reaction at all.  But it is horseshit to say that him not hating Rhaegar at every possible moment, as Robert does, is evidence one way or another for their relationship.  Again, people have different coping mechanisms - and given that Ned clearly cares for Jon, it's not out of the question that this has softened his opinion on Rhaegar.  Or that his coping mechanism is to block out bad memories (which... is absolutely a real thing).

Sorry, I was being generic in referring to the Kingsguard as a whole.

That being said, the point stands.  The Kingsguard were all willing to aid and abet Aerys in burning other people, or in raping and mutilating his own wife, so why would they lift a finger for someone else?  Ned and every other person in Westeros would be 100% justified in expecting Dayne and Whent to be passive participants in burning the Starks.

And which order is he not happy about which Jaime follows?  He doesn't like Jaime because Jaime violates his oath, despite that oath being to the man Eddard is coming to depose and almost certainly kill.  If anything, that is further evidence for my point - Ned, the man of honor, believes that the Kingsguard who stick by their oath despite what it makes them do, are more honorable than the man who disobeys his.  

The southron ambitions thing is a whole other theory, which can be debated for and against. And everyone has various beliefs on this - so it really depends on what you believe of it, and how it factors into your beliefs on everything related to R+L. Let's say for now, that it was those houses having a grab for power...then their reactions to Rhaegar's disappearance with Lyanna would make a whole lot more sense. Whereas if there was no southron ambitions, their reactions on hearing about R+L makes less sense storywise.

and about the Stark marriages - i meant that they NEVER married houses that were either not first men, northern houses, or their bannermen. Houses Tully and Baratheon were neither of these - so the fact that Rickard had made an alliances with them for the first time in Sark history was very strange. Strange enough to raise doubts and suspicions. 

And Ned not thinking about Rhaegar isn't absence of evidence - infact Ned DOES have Rhaegar in his mind. What I meant to say was; when Rhaegar is mentioned on page, Robert would rage on and on about him, whilst Ned would just remain silent and would not even acknowledge Robert's words as being true. He certainly thinks of Rhaegar, just not in the context of how Robert does. And shock and trauma isn't a believable excuse - as I've said, every other character POV has a trauma of some sort, yet they still think back on it later on. So I guess Ned is just special enough that he can't think about his traumatic experience like other POVs...and those are POVs who have had more traumatic memories than Ned.

And Ned's version of the crowning isn't told as Rhaegar insulting Lyanna, more like Ned was just upset or shocked it had happened. No mention of it being an insult. Brandon probably thought of it as an insult, though one more like he doesn't want something to happen to Lyanna like what he himself does with Barbery. We also don't know how Brandon thought of R+L's disappearance - did he find out Lyanna was kidnapped or did he receive word of her running away with Rhaegar? We can't perceive Brandon thinking of it as an insult/kidnapping and rape when a). we don't yet know what message he had heard and b). Brandon clearly overreacted and would have thought anything Rhaegar does with Lyanna as an insult - so kidnapping or eloping, Brandon probably would have reacted the same way. Moving on to Rickard, there is no mention of his reaction on Lyanna's 'kidnapping' or 'elopment,' and he doesn't even bother to make himself heard until Aerys orders him to come to Kings Landing to answer for Brandon's crimes. And when he does get to KL, again - there is no mention of Rickard asking for Lyanna, instead he only comes for Brandon. Which is very strange since his daughter is still missing...yet he never even asks about her? I think he clearly knew something, because his actions are unexplainable if he didn't. Hearing your daughter has been kidnapped (and to be raped) would be enough to raise his banners and demand her back, but he doesn't do anything like this - and that's what comes into question.  

Regarding Ned and Jaime - sure, Ned hates Jaime for killing Aerys - but you have to count in here that Ned doesn't know anything about on why Jaime really killed Aerys. Ned assumes Jaime only does the deed because he was dishonourable and preferred being true to his father instead of Aerys. Since Ned is a moral and honourable man, if he did know the truth about the wildfire - then I can see Ned acknowledging the good deed Jaime had did by killing Aerys. Parallel this with the 3 KG at the ToJ, if Ned had known they had helped Rhaegar kidnap and rape Lyanna, then he would hate them. Doesn't matter that they were following Rhaegar's orders, but Ned would definitely hate them for an abduction and rape of Lyanna. You forget that Ned is human, despite being honourable - and can hate people due to personal reasons. However, if he found out that they were protecting Lyanna (and baby Jon), and that Lyanna had been there in her own will, then Ned would respect these KG who died defending her - which matches with his description of them being a 'marvel,' a 'shining lesson to the world,' and that Arthur Dayne was 'the best Kingsguard he had ever seen.'