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Why the Starks see winter as "A time for wolves"


Yukle

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Why do the Starks have the Direwolf as their sigil? Real-life information gives sense to their decision.

It sounds counter-intuitive, but wolves grow stronger as winter progresses. Wolves are apex predators (except where they compete with tigers in Asia) and feed off all sorts of prey, but their biggest prize is large herbivores who live in herds. During the summer, the high visibility makes it very difficult to hunt their prey. Success rates drop to as low as 1 in 10 hunts. Their best chances are to startle a herd and pick off the weak, sick or young; alternatively, waiting until a rut allows them to pick off the weaker exhausted males who are confined to the fringes.

Once winter comes, though, there isn't enough food for herbivores to remain at top strength. Frost and snows mean that grasses whither and store their nutrients in very fibrous roots. Grazers need their fat stores to see them survive. Meanwhile, the wolves chase them constantly, tiring them more and more. Eventually, wolves target the larger or older members of the herd, who will tire the fastest as they need more food to maintain themselves. Over the winter, it becomes easier to hunt steadily more tired prey, so wolves grow stronger as the winter progresses. They hunt with more and more success.

Their strong family bonds leads them to hunt in packs, staying close together to defend each other, as I assume everyone here knows.

[[Trivial side-note: Despite the cool line, "When the winter comes, the lone wolf dies... but the pack survives," wolves are more successful hunting alone, provided they do no attack large prey. Living in social groups is a trade-off necessary to make it more likely that their cubs survive but comes at the cost of making it harder to co-ordinate a hunt and necessitates attacking larger prey.]]

So why would the Starks revere wolves, and direwolves in particular? (BTW, for those unaware, direwolves are now extinct but were real; they were not much larger than grey wolves, though, unlike their portrayal in aSoIaF). Well, for the First Men who settled in the hot springs of Winterfell, they'd have spent thousands of years watching as winter brought devastation to the countryside.

More and more wildlife and forests would dwindle as the snows fell, all while the howls of wolves would go on. By the end of winter, there would be more wolves than ever, and they'd be more powerful. Direwolves probably out-competed grey wolves, too, so by the end of winter, there'd be an ominous pack of huge wolves roaming every forest. The Starks grew up watching close-knit families stick together to survive the winter they always knew was coming. And they'd finish each winter stronger than ever before.

Indeed, this outlook means that the words, "Winter is Coming," is a double warning. Not only does it mean it is crucial to prepare for the coming lean times... but once winter nears its end, the closeness of the Starks will see them rise to their very strongest while all others struggle for survival.

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Maybe wolves do better in winter when it lasts a few months, but it must be different when winter lasts years. As you said, other wildlife will dwindle and prey will become weaker. For wolves to survive years of winter, so must their prey, so they can only be so much more successful than other animals. The idea that wolves could become stronger and more numerous over these winters relies on prey getting weaker but somehow remaining plentiful for years.

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Like the wolves, the Starks' military strength is at its greatest when other houses are at their weakest. As the Hour of the Wolf showed, with insufficient supplies to feed all Northerners, a greater proportion of men are available to fight during winter than at any other time. Instead of starving in their own homes, they can form an army and head south to eat at other people's expense. Meanwhile, the southern houses want to sit back on their own supplies.

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8 hours ago, Horse of Kent said:

Like the wolves, the Starks' military strength is at its greatest when other houses are at their weakest. As the Hour of the Wolf showed, with insufficient supplies to feed all Northerners, a greater proportion of men are available to fight during winter than at any other time. Instead of starving in their own homes, they can form an army and head south to eat at other people's expense. Meanwhile, the southern houses want to sit back on their own supplies.

Not quite accurate, the north was wise during the dance they first tended to their harvest then marched south with all their strength knowing many of them faced certain death if they spent winter in the north; they faced war torn and weary opposition. 

This is almost the opposite situation they face now, not tended to the harvest; lost their best men in the south and now in the middle of their own civil war

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54 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

Not quite accurate, the north was wise during the dance they first tended to their harvest then marched south with all their strength knowing many of them faced certain death if they spent winter in the north; they faced war torn and weary opposition. 

This is almost the opposite situation they face now, not tended to the harvest; lost their best men in the south and now in the middle of their own civil war

I meant generically not necessarily in this winter.

However the situation in the books currently is not quite as dire as you make out. The majority of Northmen stayed in the North. I think only a couple of houses (Umber and Karstark) are known to have committed too many men to fight with Robb. Whilst the surplus capacity of men to go to war during summer was lost, there should have been enough people left to harvest most the crops, many of whom can now fight through winter. Though some of the harvest would have been destroyed in the fighting, the North is huge and war has touched the area much less than the Riverlands where there will be major issues.

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There’s plenty of reasons why the Starks embrace Winter.


a-    Winter turns the region into an impregnable fortress. The Southerners stand no chance of fighting during winter. Their army is decimated by the cold, their supply lines are disrupted, mounted horsemen which are synonymous of armies coming from richer areas are rendered useless and its so easy for them to get disoriented in such cold weather. The North is not quite renowned for its fortresses. However, in winter, any raiding army will be facing a ticking bomb (ie the cold) which makes it very difficult for them to sit out a siege. Hence even the smallest of mottes has the potential to decimate armies turning the area around into one massive graveyard. The seas usually get very rough in winter so its also sort the Ironborn problem too. 
b-    Winterfell is the perfect place to spend such ferocious winter in. Its far away from the Southern aggressors and the sea (ie ironborn). It sits on top of hot springs which makes even the toughest of winters bearable. The wolves love family and they hate politics. Such weather keep family close together and it isolates them from the latter
c-    Winter gives the Warden of the North the perfect excuse not to participate into Southern Wars. Logistics in assembling an army and lead it to war are already a challenge in summer let alone in winter. The Targeryan king will have no choice but to defend his flowery seat in the South without the Northerners help.
 

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23 hours ago, Ser Petyr Parker said:

Maybe wolves do better in winter when it lasts a few months, but it must be different when winter lasts years. As you said, other wildlife will dwindle and prey will become weaker.

Not necessarily the case. If you look at our own Ice Age, or at the Arctic Circle for that matter, you'll see that there was a preponderance of large apex predators, and large herbivores, many of which move in very large herds (reindeer for example). Extended periods of cold tend to lend themselves to large animals and big packs/herds - durability is the prime consideration.

Very good OP in my opinion. I don't know to what extent GRRM has been influenced by zoology, but Ned's point about how in winter the lone wolf dies but the pack survives does touch on a certain logic. In the summer them decadent southrons might have their day, but in the winter the old values of loyalty start to seem pragmatic rather than naive. 

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