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How did The Reach lose?

89 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, xjlxking said:

He doesn't need the Lannisters, sure but by allying with them, they legitimize him claim. 

Allying with the Lannisters does (at least arguably) make sense; marching on Highgarden at the head of a Lannister army does not.

It reduces his legitimacy in the eyes of his soon-to-be-bannermen, and incurs a lot of bad will with them as well (a foreign medieval army through your lands is not a pleasant thing). And it needlessly throws away a bargaining chip he could have used to get Olenna to surrender bloodlessly. And all for no benefit, except maybe making Jaime and Cersei like him a bit more, which is worth almost nothing.

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6 hours ago, xjlxking said:

He doesn't need the Lannisters, sure but by allying with them, they legitimize him claim. 

As far as people knowing that she killed the Tyrells, i'm not sure about that. Sure, they probably suspect her but lets not forget, he uncle, son, cousin..etc have all died as well. Lets also not forget, not everyone was fond of religious fanatics in the city. They was shown numerous of times that they were bad for business. 

 

 

How do they legitimize his claim when according to anyone else who matters, they're not legitimate rulers themselves? This started back in season 1-2 man.

The riverlords give them the finger, as do the north, the vale, the Dornish and the Stormlands.

The official mantra of the show from season one has been fukk the Lannisters.

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The show has always established House Lannister as by far the most powerful house in Westeros - they even have Tyrion in the episode commenting on how they have been the true power in Westeros for a long time. They are the richest, can raise the biggest army and have the best equipped and most highly trained forces. Not consistent with the books as the Westerlands is one of the smallest of the 7 kingdoms while the reach is huge and can raise a far larger host, but there you go.

By comparison the Tyrells are established on the show as being the number 2 house right from the beginning, they are the second richest, can raise the second biggest army, and now according to Olenna can't actually fight that well as it's never been their forte. I think that's all the explanation they're gunna give for why the Tyrell's lost other than Tarly and possibly other Reach lords siding with The Lannisters. 

Also, the show seems to have decided that the War of the five Kings hasn't had much of an impact on The Lannisters forces. Unlike the books where they're on their last legs 

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Well, as others already said Lannisters' early wins are necessary for the plot in order to create some "balance" between the bad guys and the good ones.The problem is that in order to do so they created some big plot holes.I mean let's see what's the current status of the various armies according to what happened in the previous seasons.

1)The North has suffered the most loses and therefore its armies are weakened.So far so good since the show actually does make it clear since the Northmen are forced to muster even children.

2)Lannisters actually come second in terms of loses througout seasons 1-6.They suffered some crushing defeats from the Northmen,battle of Blackwater was a victory,yes, but a bloody one and finally lots of people in KL turned into religious fanatics before been blown by Cercei.Still though according to the show their army is  miraculously the strongest one.

3)Greyjoys.About a decade ago they suffered a crushing defeat,they took a little bit of beating from the Boltons as well when they tried to launch an attack at the North and Yara with Theon took a number of men and ships with them.So here comes the first plot hole.Out of nowhere Euron builds 1000 ships and not just that but he has enough people to man them.Well it seems that the people of Iron Islands breed like rabbits and their offsprings turn from children to tough warriors in no time.

4)Highgarden,Dorne and Vale.Their armies are intact!Tyrells' only participation in the war of the kings was to route Stanis' forces after Tyrion had done all the hard work,same goes for the Vale whose only participation was in the Battle of the Bastards and as for Dorne they had no interference at all thus far.

There's also the Stormlands and the Riverlands who practically have no ruler at the moment.The only way that this shift of power can be justified is that minor Lords from these regions and the Highgarden where convinced and joined Cercei after her speach which is another plot hole by itself.Moreover it doesn't make much sense that the Lannisters would muster their army (which includes forces from other regions as well) and move a good proportion from Casterly Rock in no time and Highgarden would do absolutely nothing.Not to mention the fact that the meeting with the Lords at KL can't be called a secret one so Dany and her allies should have had an idea about what's going on.

Finally i want to add the factor of the common people.The Lannisters are broke,winter has come (but for some reason below the Neck it's still summer),there was all the chaos in KL but somehow everyone seems well fed and happy.

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Lots of talk about why the Lannisters would have won the field battle, but was I the only one wondering why there was a field battle? The Tyrells were defending a fortified castle filled with grain weren't they? They could have held out for months against an army that was needed elsewhere and would eventually be attacked by Dothraki and dragons?

A battle made no sense at all. Why even up the odds or skew them in the enemy's favour?

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6 hours ago, Crona said:

Also if he doesn't ally with Cersei, then who is he going to ally with? Dany would torch him with her dragons. Is he just going to take highgarden and sit out the war. He took out one of Dany's allies

 

Why would he need to ally with anybody? The reach had the largest trained force on the continent, with the bounty to support the beast.

Close the borders of the Reach, and should Dany win(as it looked inevitable) and come demanding answers for his inaction, tell her the truth.

"You may be a dragon queen Your Grace, but you allied and counted savages who as a culture pride pillaging and rape among your number. And the Lannister queen was a savage herself, so i looked after my lands and my people, as any good lord would."

Not a help, nor a hindrance, only a steady lord.

Makes more sense than seeking legitimacy from ones who outright lack their own, and then allowing them to use his realms bounty to prop up a losing war in the onset of winter.

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7 minutes ago, SerMudz said:

The show has always established House Lannister as by far the most powerful house in Westeros - they even have Tyrion in the episode commenting on how they have been the true power in Westeros for a long time. They are the richest, can raise the biggest army and have the best equipped and most highly trained forces. Not consistent with the books as the Westerlands is one of the smallest of the 7 kingdoms while the reach is huge and can raise a far larger host, but there you go.

By comparison the Tyrells are established on the show as being the number 2 house right from the beginning, they are the second richest, can raise the second biggest army, and now according to Olenna can't actually fight that well as it's never been their forte. I think that's all the explanation they're gunna give for why the Tyrell's lost other than Tarly and possibly other Reach lords siding with The Lannisters. 

Also, the show seems to have decided that the War of the five Kings hasn't had much of an impact on The Lannisters forces. Unlike the books where they're on their last legs 

 

I hear you, and it helps nothing, honestly. The show doesn't make any sense, really.

This episode, they said Tywin Lannister built Casterly Rock......Breh, seriously? Do those lore accompaniments mean nothing, that detail the histories of the great houses.

They also said it never had drains until Tyrion built them as a teenager......Breh, again, seriously?

What was the point of Robb Stark's victories in the earlier seasons if they just handwave their effect on the Lannister powerstructure?

The show by sidelining the Dornish as a whole, has proven that they didn't GET the point of the books.

To them, Dorne is done because there's nobody else from there who's an important character.

But in the game of thrones, houses rise and houses fall. And there's always someone willing to step into the vacant primacy seat. Nobodies can become somebodies, just by virtue of making their play for it,

 

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1 hour ago, The Frosted King said:

 

Why would he need to ally with anybody? The reach had the largest trained force on the continent, with the bounty to support the beast.

Close the borders of the Reach, and should Dany win(as it looked inevitable) and come demanding answers for his inaction, tell her the truth.

"You may be a dragon queen Your Grace, but you allied and counted savages who as a culture pride pillaging and rape among your number. And the Lannister queen was a savage herself, so i looked after my lands and my people, as any good lord would."

Not a help, nor a hindrance, only a steady lord.

Makes more sense than seeking legitimacy from ones who outright lack their own, and then allowing them to use his realms bounty to prop up a losing war in the onset of winter.

I don't think the show uses too much logic, I think a lot of people here try to use logic for the show when there isn't. They have Dorne, as basically the water gardens, and have bastards (who just took it, with no approval from Dorne) controlling Dorne, and now Dorne is gone. Dorne hasn't even been part of any war, how are their forces already exhausted? It makes no sense for Dorne to already be out. And the Stormlands are gone, and the Riverlands are gone, for some there is nobody there. The show has made Dany's dragons into nuclear weapons and made Dany into a queen that's obsessed with the crown.

I don't think Randyll closing his borders would help at all from the dragons, nor would I think Dany would be fine with the excuse he gives her for killing off her Tyrell army. And why would he even attack the Tyrell army if he doesn't plan to get into the war, mind as well just sit out the whole thing. 

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3 hours ago, SerMudz said:

The show has always established House Lannister as by far the most powerful house in Westeros - they even have Tyrion in the episode commenting on how they have been the true power in Westeros for a long time. They are the richest, can raise the biggest army and have the best equipped and most highly trained forces. Not consistent with the books as the Westerlands is one of the smallest of the 7 kingdoms while the reach is huge and can raise a far larger host, but there you go.

By comparison the Tyrells are established on the show as being the number 2 house right from the beginning, they are the second richest, can raise the second biggest army, and now according to Olenna can't actually fight that well as it's never been their forte. I think that's all the explanation they're gunna give for why the Tyrell's lost other than Tarly and possibly other Reach lords siding with The Lannisters. 

Also, the show seems to have decided that the War of the five Kings hasn't had much of an impact on The Lannisters forces. Unlike the books where they're on their last legs 

Well by having tarly join them they likely picked up a ton of support from the reach lords since in terms of military strength he is "the general" of the reach even though mace tyrell takes credit for the success of them. And house tarly is considered an incredibly honorable house. Add that dany is using a dothraki horde and people will be more inclined to fight against her since the dothraki are known to be brutal slavers even in westeros

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2 hours ago, The Frosted King said:

 

I hear you, and it helps nothing, honestly. The show doesn't make any sense, really.

This episode, they said Tywin Lannister built Casterly Rock......Breh, seriously? Do those lore accompaniments mean nothing, that detail the histories of the great houses.

They also said it never had drains until Tyrion built them as a teenager......Breh, again, seriously?

What was the point of Robb Stark's victories in the earlier seasons if they just handwave their effect on the Lannister powerstructure?

The show by sidelining the Dornish as a whole, has proven that they didn't GET the point of the books.

To them, Dorne is done because there's nobody else from there who's an important character.

But in the game of thrones, houses rise and houses fall. And there's always someone willing to step into the vacant primacy seat. Nobodies can become somebodies, just by virtue of making their play for it,

 

Well by saying tywin built casterly rock they could mean he improved it. Also they could have meant that the drains needed to be improved and rebuilt and tyrion was put in charge of that.

In the show it explains it but house lannister uner tywins father had become a laughing stock. His father had men laugh at him right to his face and tywins hatred of whores comes from his father essentially making a whore his wife in all but name. So that is what they meant but the show has not explained it at all.

I think in the show that rob starks victories are more about how despite winning every battle that they lost through some evil act.

Yeah they screwed up the dornish plot bad.

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3 hours ago, Daenor said:

Well, as others already said Lannisters' early wins are necessary for the plot in order to create some "balance" between the bad guys and the good ones.The problem is that in order to do so they created some big plot holes.I mean let's see what's the current status of the various armies according to what happened in the previous seasons.

1)The North has suffered the most loses and therefore its armies are weakened.So far so good since the show actually does make it clear since the Northmen are forced to muster even children.

2)Lannisters actually come second in terms of loses througout seasons 1-6.They suffered some crushing defeats from the Northmen,battle of Blackwater was a victory,yes, but a bloody one and finally lots of people in KL turned into religious fanatics before been blown by Cercei.Still though according to the show their army is  miraculously the strongest one.

3)Greyjoys.About a decade ago they suffered a crushing defeat,they took a little bit of beating from the Boltons as well when they tried to launch an attack at the North and Yara with Theon took a number of men and ships with them.So here comes the first plot hole.Out of nowhere Euron builds 1000 ships and not just that but he has enough people to man them.Well it seems that the people of Iron Islands breed like rabbits and their offsprings turn from children to tough warriors in no time.

4)Highgarden,Dorne and Vale.Their armies are intact!Tyrells' only participation in the war of the kings was to route Stanis' forces after Tyrion had done all the hard work,same goes for the Vale whose only participation was in the Battle of the Bastards and as for Dorne they had no interference at all thus far.

There's also the Stormlands and the Riverlands who practically have no ruler at the moment.The only way that this shift of power can be justified is that minor Lords from these regions and the Highgarden where convinced and joined Cercei after her speach which is another plot hole by itself.Moreover it doesn't make much sense that the Lannisters would muster their army (which includes forces from other regions as well) and move a good proportion from Casterly Rock in no time and Highgarden would do absolutely nothing.Not to mention the fact that the meeting with the Lords at KL can't be called a secret one so Dany and her allies should have had an idea about what's going on.

Finally i want to add the factor of the common people.The Lannisters are broke,winter has come (but for some reason below the Neck it's still summer),there was all the chaos in KL but somehow everyone seems well fed and happy.

Well the riverlands have essentially been loted,pillaged,and just plain sacked for the entire series pretty much and in all reality will likely starve come winter. That is more explained in the books but the show hinted at it. And since the only two rulers we have seen for the riverlands in the show is house tull and house frey and both are all but gone....

I think people take the "thousand ships" to seriously. The iron fleet likely has less then five hundred ships and while yara and theon took a hundred of their best ships that was taken from the iron fleet which even before euron built more ships was one of the largest fleets.

 

But also if dany essentially  stomped cersei with no real challenge then it would be boring.  Also given the previews for the next episode I think a big part of it is that dany had followed tyrions plan which was to essentially use as little power as possible and assume nothing would go wrong. Tyrion and missandei didn't even want dany to ride her dragon because "she could get hurt". Basically tyrions plan was too soft and also him attacking casterly rock seems obvious now.

Edited by snow is the man

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2 hours ago, Crona said:

I don't think the show uses too much logic, I think a lot of people here try to use logic for the show when there isn't. They have Dorne, as basically the water gardens, and have bastards (who just took it, with no approval from Dorne) controlling Dorne, and now Dorne is gone. Dorne hasn't even been part of any war, how are their forces already exhausted? It makes no sense for Dorne to already be out. And the Stormlands are gone, and the Riverlands are gone, for some there is nobody there. The show has made Dany's dragons into nuclear weapons and made Dany into a queen that's obsessed with the crown.

I don't think Randyll closing his borders would help at all from the dragons, nor would I think Dany would be fine with the excuse he gives her for killing off her Tyrell army. And why would he even attack the Tyrell army if he doesn't plan to get into the war, mind as well just sit out the whole thing. 

 

No, you're not understanding what i'm saying.

In my scenario, Tarly wouldn't sack Highgarden or kill its defenders.

He'd go to Olenna first once the sept explosion happens and state his intent to take Highgarden and the lordship of the Reach for House Tarly.

Who would gainsay him? According to the show, House Tarly is the preeminent Reach family after the Tyrells.

If he told Olenna his plan to rise but promised to brutalize any forces sent by the Lannisters, what is she going to say? Her house has no future.

He doesn't need the stamp of approval from the vastly unpopular Lannister regime to do any of this, and it only makes the transition of power easier if Olenna doesn't fight him.

The only problem might be if he refuses to fight alongside Dany in her campaign, but she's brought Dothraki screamers into the realm. She must understand that they're a polarizing ally.

Let Olenna be the go between for Dany and the new lord of the reach. He won't march alongside savages and rapists, but he also won't take the field against her forces either.

He consolidates his grasp on the reach, Dany doesn't have to fight the breadbasket of the continent, and the realm is better ready for winter. 

He gained nothing that wasn't already unofficially his when he sided with the Lannisters.

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It seemed to me that Tarly coming to the Lannister side was symbolic of the great bulk (or even all) of the Reach lords turning their backs on Olenna.  It is the only way to explain how the Olenna could be defeated so easily.

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On 7/31/2017 at 7:27 PM, Lord Varys said:

The Tyrells were introduced as being weaker than the Lannisters and the Starks in one of the early seasons, I think season 2 or 3. Could be that they were upgraded somewhat later, could be that they just became richer in food and coin. I don't keep track of that crap.

The idea that things would go this way makes no sense whatsoever. But then, the entire show makes no sense.

 

They were and they weren't.  Renly's army is established to be 100,0000 strong and its stated all his bannermen join Stannis (20,000 men).  Thus the Reach Army would be at least 80,000 strong.  But later in Season 2 in conversation with Tywin, Littlefinger offhandedly states "aside from the Starks and the Lannisters the Tyrells have the largest army".  But this can be interpreted in a few different ways.  Robb's Kingdom composes of the Riverlands and the North, putting their max strength at 80-90k and the Lannister army in the Show is at least 60,000 strong + presumably 10,000 men at Oxcross and the Crownlands army.  So its possible to still have a 70-90k Reach army. 

This is backed when Tywin's army (30,000 strong) is augmented by 30-40,000 Reachmen for a 60-70,000 strong march to Kings Landing at the Battle of Blackwater Bay.  But then for some bizarre reason in Season 3 Olenna says they are supporting the Lannisters with 12,000 infantry, 1,800 cavalry, and 2,000 support.  Now that too can be interpreted as House Tyrell's own personal levies or simply that that is the only portion of their army they've seen fit to deploy to fight in Joffrey's War as it would be unnecessarily expensive to mobilize 100,000 men to battle Robb's beleaguered 20,000.

 

Finally in the last Season Jamie says to Mace that they have the second largest army in Westeros.  This could again be interpreted as him talking to Kevan.  


Basically the size of the Reach army has greatly fluctuated throughout the series.  Honestly its believable that many Tyrell bannermen would defect considering all the claims to Garth Greenhand's line.  But the Redwynes and Hightowers would undoubtedly be loyal which should give Olenna as well as the Tyrell army at least 20-30k.  Even with 10,000 Lannisters and (generously) 30-40k Reachmen that would be a huge battle with massive casualties on both sides.  Especially considering Olenna should have already called her banners to marshal an army to strike at the capital.

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@Eddard the Builder

I admire your knowledge but I have to ask you - why do you care? Do you really continue to try to make sense of the show?

As many people have pointed out already - there basically is no Reach in the show. And thus no Hightowers, no Redwynes, nor any other powerful house down there. It is all simplified. The days in which we could take book information and sort of try to slip it into the show as some sort of foundation/background information are long over.

It was wrong to do that in the first place. They are different things entirely.

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There are two variables we do not know because the show never accounted for them.

1. How many soldiers the Reach in the show actually has.

2. How many Tyrell banners Tarly was able to sway to the Lannister's and how many troops that took away from the Tyrell army and added to the Lannister's

Without those two answers you have no grounds to say what should happen. Just because the Reach is massive in the books doesn't mean they are in the show. And even if they had 1 million troops, if Tarly took 2/3rds of them, it doesn't matter. 

 

 

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6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

@Eddard the Builder

I admire your knowledge but I have to ask you - why do you care? Do you really continue to try to make sense of the show?

As many people have pointed out already - there basically is no Reach in the show. And thus no Hightowers, no Redwynes, nor any other powerful house down there. It is all simplified. The days in which we could take book information and sort of try to slip it into the show as some sort of foundation/background information are long over.

It was wrong to do that in the first place. They are different things entirely.

 

They are different, and the gap in quality between them is astounding.

The show doesn't adhere to the logic it established earlier, and it suffers for it. And people try to defend the gaps and shortcuts but its all twaddle because the people making this show don't respect the audience, nor the material.

As it was, it could've been a show for the ages.

As it is, it'll be a huge hit obviously, but it won't hold up to repeat views. Watch season one and then watch season five.

Dialogue, pacing, character motivations, etc. All leagues below the first season.

 

This could've been The Wire for fantasy television, but instead its just dragons and tits.

Edited by The Frosted King

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8 hours ago, lancerman said:

There are two variables we do not know because the show never accounted for them.

1. How many soldiers the Reach in the show actually has.

2. How many Tyrell banners Tarly was able to sway to the Lannister's and how many troops that took away from the Tyrell army and added to the Lannister's

3. How many Tyrell banners just stayed out of the fight. I suspect this was a huge number.

In-universe, most Reach Lords won't have a compelling reason to pick sides between Randyll and Olenna, won't be able to predict who's going to win, and will be more worried about getting the orchards in shape for the last harvest as winter descends after all the time the men have spent on campaign this autumn than looking to take a risk in hopes of the favors they'll get for picking the winning side. If they can justify staying home, most of them probably will. And most of them can probably justify it (especially given that this was a lightning-fast "sneak attack").

Also, for story-telling reasons, if the Reach has 45000 soldiers on Tarly's side, plus Jaime's 10000, against 25000 on Olenna's, that's no longer a story of Jaime beating Olenna, it's Jaime adding a small contribution to Tarly beating Olenna, which is less interesting.

But anyway, your main point still stands. It's perfectly plausible that Olenna lost, given the scant information we have.

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9 hours ago, lancerman said:

There are two variables we do not know because the show never accounted for them.

1. How many soldiers the Reach in the show actually has.

2. How many Tyrell banners Tarly was able to sway to the Lannister's and how many troops that took away from the Tyrell army and added to the Lannister's

Without those two answers you have no grounds to say what should happen. Just because the Reach is massive in the books doesn't mean they are in the show. And even if they had 1 million troops, if Tarly took 2/3rds of them, it doesn't matter. 

 

 

Wrong. The show established House Tyrell as one of the strongest houses. The show's Tyrell soldiers were essential in saving KL, in propping up Renly's army and now they are a bunch of irrelevant weaklings? The Tyrells could easily muster up to 50,000. And why would anyone sway to the side of Cersei?

No bannerman in the Reach would betray House Tyrell for House Lannister and one illegitimate and murderous Queen. And the Lannisters' wasted and empoverished army would never survive entering the Reach, much less conquering Highgarden without any real fight.

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