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u.s. politics: is this purity test covered under my obamacare?


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4 minutes ago, Fez said:

Also, Clinton won New Hampshire.

Yeah, I thought I remembered that, but didn't bother to look it up. 

That Australian interview is just horrifying.  Turnbull is extremely patient and forgiving of Trump, and even still Trump is outraged.  I can only hope that Trump is never in an actual high stakes negotiation.

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8 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Yeah, I thought I remembered that, but didn't bother to look it up. 

That Australian interview is just horrifying.  Turnbull is extremely patient and forgiving of Trump, and even still Trump is outraged.  I can only hope that Trump is never in an actual high stakes negotiation.

It wasn't an interview, it was a diplomatic call between two heads of states. It's a classified transcript that should have never been leaked and is actually quite dangerous.

That being said, the Trump Admin lies about everything, including these calls, and cannot be trusted. This is yet another example. If they didn't lie so much, shit wouldn't be leaked like it has been. 

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/827480386120929280

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59 minutes ago, r'hllor's red lobster said:

Pharaphrasing Trump: "Stop demonstrating I'm a liar, just stop, okay?"

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Speaking of approval ratings, I was looking through 538's aggregate, and it appears as if Rasmussen is now showing much higher disapproval numbers for Trump. For instance, I found a couple of polls of them in June that were nearly 50/50 (or 45/55 at worst), so there has been some traction.

Now I know Rasmussen is a shoddy pollster, having a C+ rating from 538. And I also know they may either use a model with so many thumbs on the scale that looking at their final numbers is garbage. However I do wonder if they've seen something in the raw data that may have made them tweak their model to have it converge somewhat with the other pollsters.

It may also be that we are finally seeing some of the holdouts peel away from Trump.

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22 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Speaking of approval ratings, I was looking through 538's aggregate, and it appears as if Rasmussen is now showing much higher disapproval numbers for Trump. For instance, I found a couple of polls of them in June that were nearly 50/50 (or 45/55 at worst), so there has been some traction.

Now I know Rasmussen is a shoddy pollster, having a C+ rating from 538. And I also know they may either use a model with so many thumbs on the scale that looking at their final numbers is garbage. However I do wonder if they've seen something in the raw data that may have made them tweak their model to have it converge somewhat with the other pollsters.

It may also be that we are finally seeing some of the holdouts peel away from Trump.

Rasmussen's ratings over the last week have caught a lot of attention. The left is celebrating it, given Trump's penchant for quoting that particular pollster, but even more surprisingly, Drudge has really pushed these low numbers the last couple of days. So people are noticing.

However, something to note is that Rasmussen is portraying a +10 point decline in overall approval in just 3 weeks, which is pretty significant (and obviously mainly caused by the health care bill). Gallup hasn't seen a decline at all; they had him at 36-40% three weeks ago, and they still do (although a bit more consistently closer to 36 than 40 now). So one of these pollsters is picking up something the other one isn't. This could be a sign of Rasmussen's samples consisting overwhelmingly of Trump hardliners who are finally dropping away.

On the other hand, Rasmussen's approval + disapproval ratings always add up to 100%, so Gallup seems to be offering an 'undecided' option that Rasmussen isn't. But for the first time, the two pollsters are in tune, and it seems pretty safe to say that Trump's approval is indeed at the -20 mark now.

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I don't really care too much about Rasmussen since they're a shitty pollster anyway.  But Trump's latest Quinnipiac poll has him 33/61 in approve/disapprove.  Yes, it's just one poll, but -28 is AWFUL.  Even after Katrina GWB didn't hit -28.  It was only when the bottom fell out of the economy in 2007 that Bush got that low. 

And Trump is doing this is with a fairly healthy economy!  There are plenty of poly sci pieces I've read that say this shouldn't even be possible!

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41 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Speaking of approval ratings, I was looking through 538's aggregate, and it appears as if Rasmussen is now showing much higher disapproval numbers for Trump. For instance, I found a couple of polls of them in June that were nearly 50/50 (or 45/55 at worst), so there has been some traction.

Now I know Rasmussen is a shoddy pollster, having a C+ rating from 538. And I also know they may either use a model with so many thumbs on the scale that looking at their final numbers is garbage. However I do wonder if they've seen something in the raw data that may have made them tweak their model to have it converge somewhat with the other pollsters.

It may also be that we are finally seeing some of the holdouts peel away from Trump.

The issue with Rasmussen has always been that they weight by party ID; which is not good because that's a fluctuating value for people (unlike say, age or race). Something that has been discussed a lot, but I haven't seen actual evidence of yet, is that the reason Trump's approval stays so high among Republicans is because many of the Republicans who disapproval of Trump no longer consider themselves Republicans (e.g George Will, I think Bill Kristol, several of my friends, etc.). These conservative independents would show up in a more representative poll, but wouldn't in a poll that continues to weight by party ID.

If that theory is true, maybe Ras looked at their raw data and realized that the characteristics of their Republican samples had changed too much since Trump took office and needed to reweigh things. Or maybe its a temporary Ras fluke and will disappear shortly.

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9 minutes ago, Fez said:

maybe Ras looked at their raw data and realized that the characteristics of their Republican samples had changed too much since Trump took office and needed to reweigh things.

This happened right after the health care bill failed, and although steeply, it did slope downwards, so I'm guessing that's the cause.

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And here we go...

 

It might be a little while longer before there's news, but Mueller wouldn't do this unless he thinks criminal indictments are appropriate. Question is, for who and for what charges.

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Will this be the cause of more 'lawyering up' in Washington?  Starting to heat up, it seems. 

Quote

Special Counsel Robert Mueller has impaneled a grand jury in Washington to investigate Russia’s interference in the 2016 elections, a sign that his inquiry is growing in intensity and entering a new phase, according to people familiar with the matter.

The grand jury, which began its work in recent weeks, is a sign that Mr. Mueller’s inquiry is ramping up and that it will likely continue for months. Mr. Mueller is investigating Russia’s efforts to influence the 2016 election and whether President Donald Trump’s campaign or associates colluded with the Kremlin as part of that effort.

A spokesman for Mr. Mueller, Joshua Stueve, declined to comment. Moscow has denied seeking to influence the election, and Mr. Trump has vigorously disputed allegations of collusion. The president has called Mr. Mueller’s inquiry a “witch hunt.”

 

Ty Cobb, special counsel to the president, said he wasn’t aware that Mr. Mueller had started using a new grand jury. “Grand jury matters are typically secret,” Mr. Cobb said. “The White House favors anything that accelerates the conclusion of his work fairly.…The White House is committed to fully cooperating with Mr. Mueller.”

Before Mr. Mueller was tapped in May to be special counsel, federal prosecutors had been using at least one other grand jury, located in Alexandria, Va., to assist in their criminal investigation of Michael Flynn, a former national security adviser. That probe, which has been taken over by Mr. Mueller’s team, focuses on Mr. Flynn’s work in the private sector on behalf of foreign interests.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/special-counsel-mueller-impanels-washington-grand-jury-in-russia-probe-1501788287?mod=e2tw

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56 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I don't really care too much about Rasmussen since they're a shitty pollster anyway.  But Trump's latest Quinnipiac poll has him 33/61 in approve/disapprove.  Yes, it's just one poll, but -28 is AWFUL.  Even after Katrina GWB didn't hit -28.  It was only when the bottom fell out of the economy in 2007 that Bush got that low. 

And Trump is doing this is with a fairly healthy economy!  There are plenty of poly sci pieces I've read that say this shouldn't even be possible!

What makes this poll so incredible is that it's the first time Trump has ever been underwater with white men. 47% approve and 48% disapprove. 

49 minutes ago, Fez said:

The issue with Rasmussen has always been that they weight by party ID; which is not good because that's a fluctuating value for people (unlike say, age or race). Something that has been discussed a lot, but I haven't seen actual evidence of yet, is that the reason Trump's approval stays so high among Republicans is because many of the Republicans who disapproval of Trump no longer consider themselves Republicans (e.g George Will, I think Bill Kristol, several of my friends, etc.). These conservative independents would show up in a more representative poll, but wouldn't in a poll that continues to weight by party ID.

If that theory is true, maybe Ras looked at their raw data and realized that the characteristics of their Republican samples had changed too much since Trump took office and needed to reweigh things. Or maybe its a temporary Ras fluke and will disappear shortly.

This. Also of note, this is the first Rasmussen poll that has Trump's numbers lower than Obama's numbers at his lowest point. 

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53 minutes ago, denstorebog said:

Holy shit, what an asshole. Just what the Dems needed.

West Virginia's Democratic governor will flip to Republican Party

And the big announcement is supposed to coincide with a Trump rally in WV.  Like, NOW is when you decide to throw your support behind Trump and the Republicans?  It looks bizarre from the outside, but WV is about as Trumpy as it gets and I don't think there's much anyone can do to change that.  Politically, it's probably better to be of the party of Trump in WV, even though association with Trump looks likely to hurt R's nationally. 

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