Khal drogo marrying Dany, why?

[Hodor the Articulate]

46 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

The time lag is interesting, but it is just as likely that Varys sent Jorah a message that he would get his lands and titles back if he killed Dany himself. Then he spent hours shadowing her throughout the market, writhing in turmoil between his desire to regain his honor vs. his love for Dany. When he saw the exchange of wine, he put two and two together, made his choice and stepped in to save Dany.

Therefore, nothing was staged. There were at least two, and probably more, plans to kill Dany.

 

 

I was just thinking about this while replying to 40TS. Presumably, Varys and Illyrio wanted Dany alive, so it was rather dangerous to inform Jorah about the King's order. I mean, maybe they had other spies that told them of Jorah's growing loyalty to Dany, but there's nothing to back that up. I think it's a bit of a plot hole.

I suppose you could say it wasn't a huge deal if she died, though.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

46 minutes ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

So now Jorah was in on it too? Come on, don't you think he would told Dany that the assassination was staged if that were the case?

I don't think there's anything suspicious about the timing. From a Doylist perspective, it was just to build tension. I can think up a number of in-universe explanations though, if you prefer - it took a while before he found his contact, he had to sneak away to a private spot to read the letter, he was making his way back to Dany when he saw her talking to a suspicious vendor, then ran to catch up.

Moreover, if Varys and Illyrio just planned on hiring fake assassins, why would there be any need to involve Robert? It would have been much quicker with him. They could have dispatched a wineseller right then and there, without having to wait for Robert to issue an order.

Also, this is a shift from your previous position. Earlier, you said the assassination attempt was "the next step in the plan", and implied that the prophecy and the assassination was planned together, as a ruse to motivate Drogo to invade Westeros.

Jorah was in on the general plan, as implied by his exchange with Viserys about the mummer's show of the prophecy. Whether he knew specifically about the wine seller or was just following Dany closely for several hours watching for assassins is ambiguous. But in the case he did know, I don't think he "would have told Dany", because obviously he didn't.

I don't think GRRM uses giant coincidences to advance the plot, and Jorah returning at that exact moment was a giant coincidence.

They probably didn't wait for Robert to issue an order. But Jorah told Drogo about the lordship offer and warns that more assassins will follow. This claim is more powerful if it is true, so Varys might as well get Robert to issue the order. It was super easy anyways.

Sorry if I was unclear with my concise language. I am not "shifting my position". Plans change. The assassination attempt was not part of the "original" plan but became the next step in the plan after the famous conversation between Varys and Illyrio in the dungeon. But I also wouldn't be surprised if Varys had included the fake assassination in the original plan and simply moved up the timeline.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

27 minutes ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

I was just thinking about this while replying to 40TS. Presumably, Varys and Illyrio wanted Dany alive, so it was rather dangerous to inform Jorah about the King's order. I mean, maybe they had other spies that told them of Jorah's growing loyalty to Dany, but there's nothing to back that up. I think it's a bit of a plot hole.

I suppose you could say it wasn't a huge deal if she died, though.

Jorah had no need of a lordship. He needed a pardon. He was already a lord. It is not a plot hole.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

The time lag is interesting, but it is just as likely that Varys sent Jorah a message that he would get his lands and titles back if he killed Dany himself. Then he spent hours shadowing her throughout the market, writhing in turmoil between his desire to regain his honor vs. his love for Dany. When he saw the exchange of wine, he put two and two together, made his choice and stepped in to save Dany.

Therefore, nothing was staged. There were at least two, and probably more, plans to kill Dany.

So you think that Varys ordered Jorah to kill Dany, while at the same time giving him a letter from Illyrio to Viserys describing the bounty, and then Jorah decided not to kill Dany, but figured that someone else would have already received word of the bounty and traveled to Vaes Dothrak exactly as fast as Illyrio's letter, and then figured out that the wine might have been poisoned? How in the world is that just as likely? Jorah did not kill Dany. There is nothing in the text that hints at this happening.

I disagree.  

[Hodor the Articulate]

5 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Jorah was in on the general plan, as implied by his exchange with Viserys about the mummer's show of the prophecy. Whether he knew specifically about the wine seller or was just following Dany closely for several hours watching for assassins is ambiguous. But in the case he did know, I don't think he "would have told Dany", because obviously he didn't.

I don't think GRRM uses giant coincidences to advance the plot, and Jorah returning at that exact moment was a giant coincidence.

They probably didn't wait for Robert to issue an order. But Jorah told Drogo about the lordship offer and warns that more assassins will follow. This claim is more powerful if it is true, so Varys might as well get Robert to issue the order. It was super easy anyways.

See, you're being inconsistent again. You can't argue that Jorah may not have known about the wineseller when you previously claimed that he was aware that Varys/Illyrio was going to send a fake assassin. And Jorah following Dany, then springing forth when he saw the wineseller doesn't at all indicate that he was part of a conspiracy, but it does provide an in-universe explanation as to why he got there just in time. You've just destroyed your own argument of it being a coincidence.

You also can't argue that he wouldn't have told Dany because he didn't. That's circular reasoning, not to mention OOC. Jorah switched to Dany's side - why wouldn't he tell her about something as big as V/I paying off the Dosh Khaleen and the prophecy being a lie? Especially when he was trying to convince her not to trust Illyrio? I think they even bring up the wineseller in that conversation.

As for coincidences, that's a part of all stories. GRRM isn't some infallible writing god who never has plot holes or contrivances. And often "coincidences" are for thematic purposes. Like you could say it's a coincidence that Aegon conquered Westeros with a black dragon, and now Dany is doing the same with her black dragon. But that doesn't mean it was planned. GRRM just sacrificed realism for symbolism.

5 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Sorry if I was unclear with my concise language. I am not "shifting my position". Plans change. The assassination attempt was not part of the "original" plan but became the next step in the plan after the famous conversation between Varys and Illyrio in the dungeon. But I also wouldn't be surprised if Varys had included the fake assassination in the original plan and simply moved up the timeline.

So what did you mean by this then?

Quote

Do you think it is just a coincidence that Dany's child happened to be foretold to be TSWMTW? That is just SUPER CONVENIENT for Illyrio's plan. After all, the next step in the plan was a staged assassination attempt on Dany, who was, you know, pregnant with TSWMTW. I can think of no better way to motivate Drogo to invade Westeros.

I mean, you're connecting the TSWMTW to the assassination. I don't know what else you were trying to say, except that the Rhaego-TSWMTW prophecy was concocted in order to get Drogo to Westeros by way of fake assassination. But as I mentioned before, V and I's conversation in Arya's chapter shows they hadn't formed a plan to hurry Drogo along at that point.

5 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Jorah had no need of a lordship. He needed a pardon. He was already a lord. It is not a plot hole.

Good point. Though, I imagine killing a threat to King would go a long way in securing a pardon.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

1 hour ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

See, you're being inconsistent again. You can't argue that Jorah may not have known about the wineseller when you previously claimed that he was aware that Varys/Illyrio was going to send a fake assassin. And Jorah following Dany, then springing forth when he saw the wineseller doesn't at all indicate that he was part of a conspiracy, but it does provide an in-universe explanation as to why he got there just in time. You've just destroyed your own argument of it being a coincidence.

You also can't argue that he wouldn't have told Dany because he didn't. That's circular reasoning, not to mention OOC. Jorah switched to Dany's side - why wouldn't he tell her about something as big as V/I paying off the Dosh Khaleen and the prophecy being a lie? Especially when he was trying to convince her not to trust Illyrio? I think they even bring up the wineseller in that conversation.

As for coincidences, that's a part of all stories. GRRM isn't some infallible writing god who never has plot holes or contrivances. And often "coincidences" are for thematic purposes. Like you could say it's a coincidence that Aegon conquered Westeros with a black dragon, and now Dany is doing the same with her black dragon. But that doesn't mean it was planned. GRRM just sacrificed realism for symbolism.

So what did you mean by this then?

I mean, you're connecting the TSWMTW to the assassination. I don't know what else you were trying to say, except that the Rhaego-TSWMTW prophecy was concocted in order to get Drogo to Westeros by way of fake assassination. But as I mentioned before, V and I's conversation in Arya's chapter shows they hadn't formed a plan to hurry Drogo along at that point.

Good point. Though, I imagine killing a threat to King would go a long way in securing a pardon.

I am not being inconsistent. I am just being unclear (apparently) in an effort to be concise. Clarifications... 

Varys, at a minimum, warned Jorah that there would be assassins and that Robert had offered a lordship to any would-be assassin and so Jorah should protect Dany, which Jorah proceeds to do. Whether or not Jorah knew specifically about the wineseller, that scenario fully qualifies as Varys staging the assassination. Varys informed Robert that "the whore was pregnant" and then proceeded to warn Jorah about the assassins. He is playing both sides.

You missed my point about Jorah following Dany. He was secretly following Dany, and watching for assassins, because he was warned by Varys. Like, I shouldn't even have to make this argument right now, I am just recounting what happened in the book. In AGOT, it looks like a coincidence that Jorah gets back just in time to stop the assassin. But then later, we learn that he was warned by Varys, and so we can say "Oh look, it wasn't a coincidence after all." This is after he stopped Dany from coming with him to get their mail, because he was specifically expecting word from Varys. At a minimum, we know is part of the spying-on-Dany conspiracy with Varys. And the conversation with Viserys about the prophecy indicates that he is in on much more than that. I mean, he probably knows that Varys and Illyrio are working together, and King Robert certainly doesn't know that.

Color-related coincidences do not advance the plot. Sure there are coincidences in asoiaf. In fact I think GRRM uses them on purpose to obfuscate the plot, like when Tyrion killed a dying poisoned Tywin. But I have read a fair number of GRRM stories, and he generally does not use coincidences to advance the plot, unlike many other authors. For instance, I don't think Littlefinger's dagger was used by Bran's assassin purely by coincidence, because that would be insane. That dagger was the catalyst for the entire Wot5K.

I meant, they always planned on staging the TSWMTW prophecy, and probably intended for Drogo to simply honor his part of the bargain after his son was born. The deal probably was something like, "I, Illyrio Mopatis will give you this woman who totally has the right blood to birth TSWMTW, and if the dosh khaleen end up foretelling that future for your son, then I hope you will bring your army to Westeros and help us conquer it." And then the timeline had to be moved up so they staged an assassination attempt. I was just being concise and unclear trying to make a point.

OK now I'm done with this thread. You clearly aren't buying a word I am saying, which is fine. I never meant to spend so much time in this thread.  

[John Suburbs]

15 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

I was just thinking about this while replying to 40TS. Presumably, Varys and Illyrio wanted Dany alive, so it was rather dangerous to inform Jorah about the King's order. I mean, maybe they had other spies that told them of Jorah's growing loyalty to Dany, but there's nothing to back that up. I think it's a bit of a plot hole.

I suppose you could say it wasn't a huge deal if she died, though.

At this point, I doubt V&I cared whether Dany lived or died. She served her purpose by marrying the Khal. If she lives, the Khal will eventually gift Viserys with an army. If she dies, KD will march on Robert's kingdom for justice.

In fact, if you align this with the conversation that V&I had in the dragon room -- with Illyrio asking for time and Varys saying there is no time -- their conclusion could very well have been to speed up the Dothraki invasion by killing Dany. Otherwise, they would have to wait until after the new khal is born and whenever Drogo gets around to repaying Viserys for his gift. Meanwhile, Westeros is being torn apart by the Starks and Lannisters.

[John Suburbs]

15 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

So you think that Varys ordered Jorah to kill Dany, while at the same time giving him a letter from Illyrio to Viserys describing the bounty, and then Jorah decided not to kill Dany, but figured that someone else would have already received word of the bounty and traveled to Vaes Dothrak exactly as fast as Illyrio's letter, and then figured out that the wine might have been poisoned? How in the world is that just as likely? Jorah did not kill Dany. There is nothing in the text that hints at this happening.

I disagree.  

Sorry, I have no idea what your talking about.

What letter to Viserys? And since Viserys is already dead at this point, how could Jorah give him a letter?

Jorah and Dany are both in VD when Jorah gets his letter, so where exactly is he riding from in order to be there when the letter arrives?

No, the letter is not necessarily a direct order to kill Dany. Merely the news that Robert has offered a lordship to whomever does the deed. Jorah is more than capable of fathoming the significance of that without being told.

And of course Jorah did not kill Dany. Where on earth did you get that from?

[John Suburbs]

8 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I am not being inconsistent. I am just being unclear (apparently) in an effort to be concise. Clarifications... 

Varys, at a minimum, warned Jorah that there would be assassins and that Robert had offered a lordship to any would-be assassin and so Jorah should protect Dany, which Jorah proceeds to do. Whether or not Jorah knew specifically about the wineseller, that scenario fully qualifies as Varys staging the assassination. Varys informed Robert that "the whore was pregnant" and then proceeded to warn Jorah about the assassins. He is playing both sides.

You missed my point about Jorah following Dany. He was secretly following Dany, and watching for assassins, because he was warned by Varys. Like, I shouldn't even have to make this argument right now, I am just recounting what happened in the book. In AGOT, it looks like a coincidence that Jorah gets back just in time to stop the assassin. But then later, we learn that he was warned by Varys, and so we can say "Oh look, it wasn't a coincidence after all." This is after he stopped Dany from coming with him to get their mail, because he was specifically expecting word from Varys. At a minimum, we know is part of the spying-on-Dany conspiracy with Varys. And the conversation with Viserys about the prophecy indicates that he is in on much more than that. I mean, he probably knows that Varys and Illyrio are working together, and King Robert certainly doesn't know that.

Color-related coincidences do not advance the plot. Sure there are coincidences in asoiaf. In fact I think GRRM uses them on purpose to obfuscate the plot, like when Tyrion killed a dying poisoned Tywin. But I have read a fair number of GRRM stories, and he generally does not use coincidences to advance the plot, unlike many other authors. For instance, I don't think Littlefinger's dagger was used by Bran's assassin purely by coincidence, because that would be insane. That dagger was the catalyst for the entire Wot5K.

I meant, they always planned on staging the TSWMTW prophecy, and probably intended for Drogo to simply honor his part of the bargain after his son was born. The deal probably was something like, "I, Illyrio Mopatis will give you this woman who totally has the right blood to birth TSWMTW, and if the dosh khaleen end up foretelling that future for your son, then I hope you will bring your army to Westeros and help us conquer it." And then the timeline had to be moved up so they staged an assassination attempt. I was just being concise and unclear trying to make a point.

OK now I'm done with this thread. You clearly aren't buying a word I am saying, which is fine. I never meant to spend so much time in this thread.  

Sorry, there is simply no evidence for any of this. We don't know what was in the letter that Jorah received other than that it contained the news that Robert wanted Dany or the baby dead. Whether it went on to instruct Jorah to protect Dany or not is sheer speculation.

There is no evidence that anything was staged. Viserys calls the DK ceremony a mummer's farce, but everything about the Dothraki is a mummer's farce. So to conclude that he knows the whole thing is a sham and that the DK have been paid off (I can't imagine with what), is also speculation.

Jorah could easily have suspected that the wine was poisoned because he now knows that Robert has set an assassination plot in motion. So of course he is going to extra careful regarding any interaction she has with strangers. Nothing unusual about it at all.

Khal Drogo will undoubtedly give Viserys the gift of an army simply for being allowed to take Dany as his bride. There is nothing in the text that remotely hints that it is also contingent on the DK pronouncing their baby to be the second coming.

As I argue above, once it became clear that events were moving a bit too fast in Westeros (thanks to Littlefinger), Varys and Illyrio meet in KL and it is shortly after that that the small council meets to discuss Dany's pregnancy and what to do about it. So the simplest explanation is that they decided to break this news now precisely because it will motivate Robert to attempt her assassination, and whether it succeeds or fails it will spur Drogo to march on Westeros sooner rather than later.

Certainly a much more straight-forward explanation than, as is too often the case when people try to interpret Martin, imagining multiple plots within plots and a single word here or there as the clue that only smart readers can see. I'm not saying that what you propose is impossible, but the simplest explanation is usually the correct one.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, I have no idea what your talking about.

What letter to Viserys? And since Viserys is already dead at this point, how could Jorah give him a letter?

Jorah and Dany are both in VD when Jorah gets his letter, so where exactly is he riding from in order to be there when the letter arrives?

No, the letter is not necessarily a direct order to kill Dany. Merely the news that Robert has offered a lordship to whomever does the deed. Jorah is more than capable of fathoming the significance of that without being told.

And of course Jorah did not kill Dany. Where on earth did you get that from?

Quote

Under the hollow hummock of earth that was her home in Vaes Dothrak, Dany ordered them to leave her—all but Ser Jorah. "Tell me," she commanded as she lowered herself onto her cushions. "Was it the Usurper?"

"Yes." The knight drew out a folded parchment. "A letter to Viserys, from Magister Illyrio. Robert Baratheon offers lands and lordships for your death, or your brother's."

 

[Hodor the Articulate]

15 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Varys, at a minimum, warned Jorah that there would be assassins and that Robert had offered a lordship to any would-be assassin and so Jorah should protect Dany, which Jorah proceeds to do. Whether or not Jorah knew specifically about the wineseller, that scenario fully qualifies as Varys staging the assassination. Varys informed Robert that "the whore was pregnant" and then proceeded to warn Jorah about the assassins. He is playing both sides.

I know what what you mean by "staged" and I disagree. Occam's razor says Robert put out a price on Dany's head, and the wineseller was just one of many ambitious individuals gunning for a lordship. Do I think Varys and Illyrio played a part? Yes, the text certainly suggests they told Robert about Dany's pregnancy to prompt him to kill her, and Illyrio's message was meant as a heads up. But what you suggest - that Varys planted the wineseller there - is unnecessary clutter.

Think of this from a writer's perspective. GRRM has set up a clear motive for the wineseller - Robert's offer of a lorship, and he sets up a way in which Dany finds out about it - Jorah's letter. Done and done. There's no need for a secondary motive.

Besides, Varys doesn't like to get his hands dirty. It doesn't make sense that he would risk the assassin being linked back to him or Illyrio, when they could just sit back and watch Robert's order do it's job.

18 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Color-related coincidences do not advance the plot. Sure there are coincidences in asoiaf. In fact I think GRRM uses them on purpose to obfuscate the plot, like when Tyrion killed a dying poisoned Tywin. But I have read a fair number of GRRM stories, and he generally does not use coincidences to advance the plot, unlike many other authors. For instance, I don't think Littlefinger's dagger was used by Bran's assassin purely by coincidence, because that would be insane. That dagger was the catalyst for the entire Wot5K.

Yeah, the poisoned Tywin theory, as cool as it was, is just fannon. I'm pretty sure Ran dispelled theory last year.

Anyway, the point is, in-universe coincidences (which includes colour-related ones - don't shift the goal posts) exist. Arguing for conspiracy because you personally find something too much of a coincidence is a weak argument to .

18 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I meant, they always planned on staging the TSWMTW prophecy, and probably intended for Drogo to simply honor his part of the bargain after his son was born. The deal probably was something like, "I, Illyrio Mopatis will give you this woman who totally has the right blood to birth TSWMTW, and if the dosh khaleen end up foretelling that future for your son, then I hope you will bring your army to Westeros and help us conquer it." And then the timeline had to be moved up so they staged an assassination attempt. I was just being concise and unclear trying to make a point.

OK now I'm done with this thread. You clearly aren't buying a word I am saying, which is fine. I never meant to spend so much time in this thread. 

Well, we can agree on that last part. Your crackpot is so full of holes that's it's more like a crack-colander.

The biggest plot hole being why anybody thought Dany is was the mother of TSWMTW, and why no other horselords sought Valyrian wives if that was the case. Also, as another poster mentioned, upthread, what Illyrio had to offer the Dosh Khaleen, who have no need of any material possession, to get them to lie for him.

[John Suburbs]

21 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

 

Ahh, thanks. Been a while since I read that chapter.

But it still doesn't change anything. The letter to Viserys was also what informed Jorah that he could go home if he killed Dany. So there is nothing to suggest that he received separate instructions from Varys or anyone.

And yes, the news of that royal decree would have gotten to VD just as fast as that letter, and Jorah, being a smart man, threw caution into the wind when he saw Dany accepting wine from a stranger. He even says himself that he did not know for certain the wine was poisoned until the seller refused to drink.

So no conspiracy here, not plots within plots, no staging. A simple letter and a man who knows how to read between the lines.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

2 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Ahh, thanks. Been a while since I read that chapter.

But it still doesn't change anything. The letter to Viserys was also what informed Jorah that he could go home if he killed Dany. So there is nothing to suggest that he received separate instructions from Varys or anyone.

And yes, the news of that royal decree would have gotten to VD just as fast as that letter, and Jorah, being a smart man, threw caution into the wind when he saw Dany accepting wine from a stranger. He even says himself that he did not know for certain the wine was poisoned until the seller refused to drink.

So no conspiracy here, not plots within plots, no staging. A simple letter and a man who knows how to read between the lines.

Not quite...

Quote

"Yes. And how was it you knew the wine was poisoned?"

"I . . . I but suspected . . . the caravan brought a letter from Varys, he warned me there would be attempts. He wanted you watched, yes, but not harmed." He went to his knees. "If I had not told them someone else would have. You know that."

It is hard to tell how truthful Jorah is being here. We should keep in mind that he is being chastised and may still be hiding info from Dany. The letter from Varys, which he did not show her, may have been more specific regarding the wine merchant. Or it may have simply warned Jorah of general attempts like he claimed, and so he spent the rest of the morning secretly following Dany around (like a sketchy person) until the suspicious wine merchant offered Dany a special cask upon learning her identity, and that was more than enough to make Jorah intercede. Either way, Varys warned Jorah that assassins were coming after Dany, and it is definitely possible that Varys hired the wine merchant directly. After all, LF assumed that some dumb sellsword would end up botching the attempt and that a Faceless Man would have definitely succeeded. But then the wine merchant ended up using a Faceless Man tactic in his attempt. He may have even been a Faceless Man. There are a number of hints that Varys has Faceless Man connections, the most significant being that they are implied to be in possession of gold dragons minted by Daemon Blackfyre (the face on the coin that Arya could not recognize, just like Dunk back in the day), which means the FM are probably working for the Aegon cause.

Also, Jorah was already a lord. What he required was a pardon, so that he could simply return home to the lands he already possessed.

[cpg2016]

15 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

I know what what you mean by "staged" and I disagree. Occam's razor says Robert put out a price on Dany's head, and the wineseller was just one of many ambitious individuals gunning for a lordship. Do I think Varys and Illyrio played a part? Yes, the text certainly suggests they told Robert about Dany's pregnancy to prompt him to kill her, and Illyrio's message was meant as a heads up. But what you suggest - that Varys planted the wineseller there - is unnecessary clutter.

Think of this from a writer's perspective. GRRM has set up a clear motive for the wineseller - Robert's offer of a lorship, and he sets up a way in which Dany finds out about it - Jorah's letter. Done and done. There's no need for a secondary motive.

Besides, Varys doesn't like to get his hands dirty. It doesn't make sense that he would risk the assassin being linked back to him or Illyrio, when they could just sit back and watch Robert's order do it's job.

I don't think its truly debatable that Jorah knew about the wineseller.

First off, who do you think is giving the order to set up the assassin?  Varys, obviously.  So Varys sets up an awful assassination plot.  I mean, this guy is a master plotter, and the best catspaw he can find is this random wineseller?  And how does Jorah know, out of nowhere, who he's gonna be?

Robert wants Dany killed.  He empowers Varys to do it.  Varys gives the order, in the most inoffensive way possible, and has Illyrio give Jorah a heads up as to when it is going to go down and how to stop it.

Occam's Razor says that Jorah has to know about this specific assassination attempt, or else why is he stopping the wineseller?  As inept of an assassination attempt as it is, there is nothing inherently suspicious about this guy offering Dany some wine; it's a time honored way for a tradesman to gain patronage.

[Hodor the Articulate]

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

I don't think its truly debatable that Jorah knew about the wineseller.

First off, who do you think is giving the order to set up the assassin?  Varys, obviously.  So Varys sets up an awful assassination plot.  I mean, this guy is a master plotter, and the best catspaw he can find is this random wineseller?  And how does Jorah know, out of nowhere, who he's gonna be?

Robert wants Dany killed.  He empowers Varys to do it.  Varys gives the order, in the most inoffensive way possible, and has Illyrio give Jorah a heads up as to when it is going to go down and how to stop it.

Occam's Razor says that Jorah has to know about this specific assassination attempt, or else why is he stopping the wineseller?  As inept of an assassination attempt as it is, there is nothing inherently suspicious about this guy offering Dany some wine; it's a time honored way for a tradesman to gain patronage.

The whole point of Robert putting a price on Dany's head is so any number of people will try to assassinate her. Varys doesn't need to hire an assassin (and risk exposing himself), because every person Dany encounters is a potential assassin. If he was planning to hire an assassin, that's what he would have convinced Robert to do.

And Jorah is suspicious of the wineseller because he's on the lookout for would-be assassins, and is thus suspicious of everyone. It's not odd behavior, given the context. OC absolutely does not support Jorah knowing about the wineseller - that would require a lot more explaining. Plus, Dany saw the letter Jorah was given, so it can't have contained any info about winsellers.

[Lost Melnibonean]

In Eddard VIII, Game 33, we learn that Jorah has informed Varys, presumably through Illyrio, that Daenerys is pregnant...

Quote

“Ser Jorah would not dare deceive me,” Varys said with a sly smile. “Rely on it, my lord. The princess is with child.”

Why wouldn't Jorah dare deceive Varys? Presumably because Varys, through Illyrio, would have Jorah killed. 

Quote

“Gods! You are stubborn as an aurochs, Stark.” The king looked around the council table. “Have the rest of you mislaid your tongues? Will no one talk sense to this frozen-faced fool?"

Varys gave the king an unctuous smile and laid a soft hand on Ned’s sleeve. “I understand your qualms, Lord Eddard, truly I do. It gave me no joy to bring this grievous news to council. It is a terrible thing we contemplate, a vile thing. Yet we who presume to rule must do vile things for the good of the realm, howevermuch it pains us.”

So, not only does Varys inform king and council that Daenerys is pregnant, which could be explained by Varys needing to maintain trust, but here we see him encourage the king to attempt to assassinate her. 

Quote

“Kinder,” Varys said. “Oh, well and truly spoken, Grand Maester. It is so true. Should the gods in their caprice grant Daenerys Targaryen a son, the realm must bleed.” 

What is the reader to make of this? This could simply be Varys playing yes-man. Or this could be Varys setting up a Rube Goldberg plot to provoke Drogo. One might think Varys would not want a challenger to his preferred claimant, but then Varys would not have prevented the assassination. Given that Varys was so concerned about Drogo bestirring himself soon, it seems most likely that Varys was attempting to provoke Drogo into action. Still it seems awfully risky. If Varys had not been able to foil the assassination attempt, Drogo might not have felt inclined to support Illyrio's ulterior motive any longer. Moreover, the way the attempt unfolded, we know Drogo would have been killed as well. 

Here we see Varys protect his asset in Jorah and notice that he suggests the method that is apparently used by the wineseller...

Quote

“Mormont craves a royal pardon,” Lord Renly reminded them.

“Desperately,” Varys said, “yet he craves life even more. By now, the princess nears Vaes Dothrak, where it is death to draw a blade. If I told you what the Dothraki would do to the poor man who used one on a khaleesi, none of you would sleep tonight.” He stroked a powdered cheek. “Now, poison … the tears of Lys, let us say. Khal Drogo need never know it was not a natural death.”

When Daenerys VI Game 54 opens, Viserys has already been "crowned," but interestingly Illyrio does not yet know this. Presumably Jorah would have sent word back, but not before Varys's would-be assassin departed with the caravan out of Pentos.

Daenerys attempts to persade Drogo into winning the Iron Throne for their son, but Drogo refuses, expressing no desire to cross the Narrow Sea. We have to wonder whether Drogo is still just delaying to honor a commitment to Illyrio until the birth of his heir, or whether Drogo believes that his end of the bargain is moot now that Viserys is dead. 

In any event, Jorah is anxious to meet a newly arrived caravan from Pentos to see if Illyrio has sent any communication. He shrugs off Daenerys, though, preferring to see the caravan captain alone. 

Notice that the wine seller apparently expects that Daenerys will share the wine with Drogo...

Quote

“Khal Drogo and I will share it together. Aggo, take this back to my litter, if you’d be so kind.” The wineseller beamed as the Dothraki hefted the cask.

And notice  that the caravan captain was not surprised...

Quote

A dozen caravan guards had come running. With them was the master himself, Merchant Captain Byan Votyris, a diminutive Norvoshi with skin like old leather and a bristling blue mustachio that swept up to his ears. He seemed to know what had happened without a word being spoken. 

Does this mean he was in on it? Was he a fail safe in case Jorah could not prevent the assassination? 

In the wake of the attempt, Drogo vows...

Quote

“And to Rhaego son of Drogo, the stallion who will mount the world, to him I also pledge a gift. To him I will give this iron chair his mother’s father sat in. I will give him Seven Kingdoms. I, Drogo, khal, will do this thing.” His voice rose, and he lifted his fist to the sky. “I will take my khalasar west to where the world ends, and ride the wooden horses across the black salt water as no khal has done before. I will kill the men in the iron suits and tear down their stone houses. I will rape their women, take their children as slaves, and bring their broken gods back to Vaes Dothrak to bow down beneath the Mother of Mountains. This I vow, I, Drogo son of Bharbo. This I swear before the Mother of Mountains, as the stars look down in witness.” 

Is this what Illyrio and Varys intended? Keep in mind that when the bargain was struck, Viserys was alive. When the assassination was ordered but set up to be foiled, Viserys was alive. When Drogo vowed to conquer the Seven Kingdoms for Rhaego, Viserys was already dead. We will learn later on that Illyrio had told the Golden Company that Viserys would join them with fifty thousand Dothraki. Thus, it seems possible that Illyrio and Varys intended for the foiled assassination to bestir Drogo into beginning preparations for a joint invasion. And in Daenerys VII, Game 61, we see that this is extremely likely since Jorah tells Daenerys...

Quote

"I've told the khal he ought to make for Meereen," Ser Jorah said. "They'll pay a better price than he'd get from a slaving caravan. Illyrio writes that they had a plague last year, so the brothels are paying double for healthy young girls, and triple for boys under ten. If enough children survive the journey, the gold will buy us all the ships we need, and hire men to sail them."

I doubt Illyrio included that tidbit in his letter as gossip or idle chit-chat. 

[cpg2016]

On 8/10/2017 at 7:57 PM, Hodor the Articulate said:

The whole point of Robert putting a price on Dany's head is so any number of people will try to assassinate her. Varys doesn't need to hire an assassin (and risk exposing himself), because every person Dany encounters is a potential assassin. If he was planning to hire an assassin, that's what he would have convinced Robert to do.

Right.  But Robert is lazy.  Who is he turning to actually spread word about putting a price on her head?  Varys, naturally, the spymaster.  Varys has to be seen to do something or risk exposing his true agenda, so he sets up a shitty assassination plot, arranges for it to be foiled, and now has the cover he needs when Robert asks what happened with the attempt he ordered.  He's lazy and stupid, so it's possible he never thinks about it again.

Varys' risks are that he doesn't obey orders, which exposes him, or that Dany dies, which hurts his long term goals.  What is the middle road?  Obey orders, but make sure they fail.  Which is exactly what happened.

On 8/10/2017 at 7:57 PM, Hodor the Articulate said:

And Jorah is suspicious of the wineseller because he's on the lookout for would-be assassins, and is thus suspicious of everyone. It's not odd behavior, given the context. OC absolutely does not support Jorah knowing about the wineseller - that would require a lot more explaining. Plus, Dany saw the letter Jorah was given, so it can't have contained any info about winsellers.

She saw one letter Jorah was given, among many that we know are sent.  And Dany is wandering around a market town, interacting with dozens of people, and Jorah doesn't lift a finger to check anyone else except this one wineseller.  She's sniffing and trying on perfumes, "buying" clothes... where was the suspicion for all them?  All the explanation we need is that Jorah intervenes with the one person who actually tries to poison Daenerys.  That speaks volumes to his foreknowledge.  If we saw him sniffing or tasting other things for her, I'd agree with you.  But he only comes forward once.  He knows.

And by the way, Dany doesn't actually read the letter. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

3 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Right.  But Robert is lazy.  Who is he turning to actually spread word about putting a price on her head?  Varys, naturally, the spymaster.  Varys has to be seen to do something or risk exposing his true agenda, so he sets up a shitty assassination plot, arranges for it to be foiled, and now has the cover he needs when Robert asks what happened with the attempt he ordered.  He's lazy and stupid, so it's possible he never thinks about it again.

Varys' risks are that he doesn't obey orders, which exposes him, or that Dany dies, which hurts his long term goals.  What is the middle road?  Obey orders, but make sure they fail.  Which is exactly what happened.

She saw one letter Jorah was given, among many that we know are sent.  And Dany is wandering around a market town, interacting with dozens of people, and Jorah doesn't lift a finger to check anyone else except this one wineseller.  She's sniffing and trying on perfumes, "buying" clothes... where was the suspicion for all them?  All the explanation we need is that Jorah intervenes with the one person who actually tries to poison Daenerys.  That speaks volumes to his foreknowledge.  If we saw him sniffing or tasting other things for her, I'd agree with you.  But he only comes forward once.  He knows.

And by the way, Dany doesn't actually read the letter. 

Varys urged Robert to have the Targling assassinated. 

[Hodor the Articulate]

 

8 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Right.  But Robert is lazy.  Who is he turning to actually spread word about putting a price on her head?  Varys, naturally, the spymaster.  Varys has to be seen to do something or risk exposing his true agenda, so he sets up a shitty assassination plot, arranges for it to be foiled, and now has the cover he needs when Robert asks what happened with the attempt he ordered.  He's lazy and stupid, so it's possible he never thinks about it again.

Varys' risks are that he doesn't obey orders, which exposes him, or that Dany dies, which hurts his long term goals.  What is the middle road?  Obey orders, but make sure they fail.  Which is exactly what happened.

What are you talking about? Varys doesn't need to arrange for an assassin. He just spreads word that King will grant anybody that managed to kill Dany a lordship, which is exactly what Robert ordered him to do. Simple. Done. He doesn't get his hands dirty, nothing is traced back to him, as is his style. If Robert wanted him to hire an assassin he would have said "go hire an assassin".

8 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

She saw one letter Jorah was given, among many that we know are sent.  And Dany is wandering around a market town, interacting with dozens of people, and Jorah doesn't lift a finger to check anyone else except this one wineseller.  She's sniffing and trying on perfumes, "buying" clothes... where was the suspicion for all them?  All the explanation we need is that Jorah intervenes with the one person who actually tries to poison Daenerys.  That speaks volumes to his foreknowledge.  If we saw him sniffing or tasting other things for her, I'd agree with you.  But he only comes forward once.  He knows.

And by the way, Dany doesn't actually read the letter. 

And is there evidence Jorah came back when she was sampling from the other stalls? Do you know how long Jorah took finding his letter bearer? That Jorah came back when he did isn't implausible.

Also, I had a quick re-read of the scene, and I'd say the wineseller was exhibiting some pretty suspicious behavior. He first offered wine samplings, and then when Doreah told him who she was, he tried to persuade her to take another wine, and "rummaged about in the back of his stall" to get it. Note that Jorah didn't step in until Aggo took the casket of wine. Why didn't he intercept the moment the wineseller produced the casket, if he was following them and knew about the wineseller?

Then when the wineseller was exposed, Jorah took out the letter, a pretty damn stupid move if it contained anything damning him. You suggest that the info might have been in some of the other intel Jorah was receiving, but not only does that disprove your previous claim that the wineseller being planted+Jorah being in on it appeals to Occam's Razor, it also raises other questions, like why Jorah doesn't later tell Dany that Varys and Illyrio set her up. He had the perfect opportunity in ASOS, when he was trying to convince Dany that Illyrio is not to be trusted. The wineseller even comes up.

4 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Varys urged Robert to have the Targling assassinated. 

Exactly. Though, urged is probably too strong a word. I doubt it took much to convince Robert to kill Dany, given his longstanding grudge. They actually had to talk him out of hiring a faceless man.

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

Drogo saw Dany as a gift , and all the things to come with her as tribute .