Westeros Experts League 2017

[Mudguard]

I'd put WJ as a 2:1 favorite over Mya.  I agree with Jaime's analysis.  It's probably going to come down to whether Houston's D scores a TD.  Flacco has been bad this year, so it's very possible that he throws an interception or two (he's averaging about 1 a game).  There might also be a lost fumble (they are averaging about half a lost fumble per game).  

Dunk v. Week is pretty even to me, but if I had to choose, I'd guess Week wins.  Baltimore has been good against some bad teams recently, and Houston with Savage at QB is pretty bad.  That said, Savage has been force feeding Hopkins the ball, so I expect that Hopkins will see double digit targets, especially if they end up playing from behind.  I'd guess he gets at least 70 yards and has a decent chance for one TD.  Watson has a really low floor, and a low ceiling.  He'll probably get 20 to 40 yards without any TDs.

[Jaime L]

Week 12 Power Rankings/Record/Points 

1) Whiskeyjack:  70-38 (7-5) 1,806.16 points
1) Mudguard:  70-38 (7-5) 1,820.02 points
3) Week:  64-44 (8-4) 1,728.60 points
4) Jaime:  62-46 (8-4) 1,779.80 points 
5) Mya:  55-53 (6-6) 1,692.08 points 
5) Dunknegg:  55-53 (4-8) 1,674.62 points
7) Bronn:  52-56 (7-5) 1,693.12 points 
8) JJ Lannister:  39-69 (7-5) 1,527.72 points 
8) Pyro:  39-69 (4-8) 1,479.04 points 
10) POTN:  34-74 (2-10) 1,458.00 points

Playoffs

Clinched - Me, Week, Mudguard, WJ

Week (vs. WJ) and I (vs. Bronn) get byes if we win. If WJ wins, he takes Week's bye. Mudguard (vs Pyro) gets my bye if he wins AND I lose. 

Contending for the two remaining spots - Bronn, JJ, Mya

Bronn and JJ (vs. Dunk) each make the playoffs with a win. JJ either wins and makes the playoffs or is Jaxomed. Mya needs a win over POTN which is likely as his team is struggling AND a loss by either Bronn or JJ. The odd man (or woman) out of the three gets thrown into the Jaxoming mix. Should be tense. We're also likely to see the first 7 win team missing the playoffs in the history of Experts. 

Jaxoming

POTN and Pyro are Jaxomed in some order and their primary hope for staying in Experts is winning a feeder league. Dunk meanwhile has a better than 50% chance of surviving through power rankings but has a tense week 13 in store.

If JJ is the odd man out, Dunk is safe. Dunk can guarantee his safety by beating JJ and vice versa. 
If Bronn is the odd man out, he needs to finish 3 power ranking spots higher than Dunk in week 13 to stay in the league. Bronn's huge week 12 is what made this possible. 
If Mya is the odd woman out, it will come down to who has the better week 13 between her and Dunk to determine who stays and who is Jaxomed.

TL;DR - every week 13 matchup matters.

Good luck, all. This promises to be lit. 

[Week]

Thanks Jaime. Good stuff.

WJ -rematch to last year where you took the bye. Revenge game.

Sadly, Cooper is probably out next week against the Giants. Sucks. 

Anyways, all aboard the Brady / Kamara train!

[Bronn Stone]

I think I'm in if I outscore either Jaime OR Mya. IIRC the tiebreaker for making the playoffs is total points. Also, the gap between Jaime and Mudguard is small enough Jaime could lose, Mudguard win with a low score, but lose his tiebreaker lead. Fun stuff. 

[Whiskeyjack]

10 hours ago, Jaime L said:

If WJ wins, he takes Week's bye.

Thanks for the rundown - cool stuff.

Unfortunately, a win isn't enough for me.  Need to beat Week, and also have one of the following happen:

1) Mudguard loses to Pyro; or
2) Mudguard beats Pyro, but I outscore Mudguard by at least 13.87 points

[Whiskeyjack]

Interestingly, my trade for Coleman directly resulted in my win over Mya this week.

If not for the trade, I was starting Crowell.  He scored 10.5.  Coleman scored 21.7.  So that was a gain of 11.2 points.

I won by 10.66 points.

[Whiskeyjack]

2 minutes ago, Whiskeyjack said:

Thanks for the rundown - cool stuff.

Unfortunately, a win isn't enough for me.  Need to beat Week, and also have one of the following happen:

1) Mudguard loses to Pyro; or
2) Mudguard beats Pyro, but I outscore Mudguard by at least 13.87 points

Actually this isn't the full picture either.

Would also get the bye if I beat Week, Bronn beats Jaime, and Jaime doesn't outscore me by 26.37 points.

[Week]

2 minutes ago, Whiskeyjack said:

Interestingly, my trade for Coleman directly resulted in my win over Mya this week.

If not for the trade, I was starting Crowell.  He scored 10.5.  Coleman scored 21.7.  So that was a gain of 11.2 points.

I won by 10.66 points.

You could have just played Burkhead

[Whiskeyjack]

3 minutes ago, Week said:

You could have just played Burkhead

Yeah - but I wasn't really considering that after he fumbled the week before.

[Jaime L]

Yeah agree with what y'all have noted. I suppose there are added complications when you get down to points. Was trying to keep it simple and thought it worked out that way, but there are scenarios I should have caught like Bronn having a 3rd way of staying alive, or Mudguard having a shot at WJ's bye. 

So to summarize succinctly, the optimal strategy in week 13 is to score a lot of points. Ideally more than the team you're playing. Please PM me if there's any questions on this aspect. 

[Bronn Stone]

1 hour ago, Whiskeyjack said:

Interestingly, my trade for Coleman directly resulted in my win over Mya this week.If not for the trade, I was starting Crowell.  He scored 10.5.  Coleman scored 21.7.  So that was a gain of 11.2 points.  I won by 10.66 points.

Which is precisely why PotN shouldn't have done it.  The playoffs should not be decided by teams with no hope of making the playoffs and no real hope of escaping Jaxoming.

BTW, it was my recollection that order of Jaxoming hasn't mattered since the earliest days of Experts.  WJ as commish made an effort to replace all three players even if there weren't three qualifiers, usually using those who'd left voluntarily.

[Whiskeyjack]

12 minutes ago, Bronn Stone said:

Which is precisely why PotN shouldn't have done it.  The playoffs should not be decided by teams with no hope of making the playoffs and no real hope of escaping Jaxoming.

He had a chance, so it was legit.  *shrug*

BTW, it was my recollection that order of Jaxoming hasn't mattered since the earliest days of Experts.  WJ as commish made an effort to replace all three players even if there weren't three qualifiers, usually using those who'd left voluntarily.

I don't remember.

But.

I do think replacing all 3 players is for the best, in keeping with the spirit of the league.

That said - there's a chance I drop out and not play next year, and if that happens, then whoever is 3rd in line for Jaxoming should probably get to stay.  Just not something that I'll know or decide for a while.

[Bronn Stone]

"within the rules" and "legitimate" are far from the same thing.

[Week]

14 minutes ago, Bronn Stone said:

"within the rules" and "legitimate" are far from the same thing.

That's pretty much the definition of legitimate.

Regardless, something for Jaime, as commish, to decide. Not something worth re-litigating at this point.

[Jaime L]

32 minutes ago, Bronn Stone said:

Which is precisely why PotN shouldn't have done it.  The playoffs should not be decided by teams with no hope of making the playoffs and no real hope of escaping Jaxoming.

BTW, it was my recollection that order of Jaxoming hasn't mattered since the earliest days of Experts.  WJ as commish made an effort to replace all three players even if there weren't three qualifiers, usually using those who'd left voluntarily.

If memory serves there was l a time or two where the 3rd Jaxomed team was not replaced. Likely due to the lack of qualified teams. Maybe after the early years WJ changed the approach and would replace the 3rd Jaxomed team with the next most worthy, even if there's no league winner. But I do have some recollection of the Jaxoming order mattering. 

[Bronn Stone]

11 minutes ago, Week said:

That's pretty much the definition of legitimate.

We don't have a rule forbidding Mya from offering to send me nude photos of Young Wolf in exchange for my choosing to choose to play Fiedorowitz instead of Witten.  But doing so would not be legitimate. Legitimacy in Political Science (which I studied) goes beyond the law to 'right and proper'.  Which is the way I think of the term.

[Whiskeyjack]

4 minutes ago, Bronn Stone said:

We don't have a rule forbidding Mya from offering to send me nude photos of Young Wolf in exchange for my choosing to choose to play Fiedorowitz instead of Witten.  But doing so would not be legitimate. Legitimacy in Political Science (which I studied) goes beyond the law to 'right and proper'.  Which is the way I think of the term.

But we do have a rule against your example - its collusion.

POTN playing to not get Jaxomed is not.

[Jaime L]

7 minutes ago, Bronn Stone said:

We don't have a rule forbidding Mya from offering to send me nude photos of Young Wolf in exchange for my choosing to choose to play Fiedorowitz instead of Witten.  But doing so would not be legitimate.

You're hinting at the biggest scandal Experts has ever seen. Pics or it didn't happen. 

[Week]

5 minutes ago, Bronn Stone said:

We don't have a rule forbidding Mya from offering to send me nude photos of Young Wolf in exchange for my choosing to choose to play Fiedorowitz instead of Witten.  But doing so would not be legitimate. Legitimacy in Political Science (which I studied) goes beyond the law to 'right and proper'.  Which is the way I think of the term.

I don't see the connection between a start/sit decision and validity of trading partner. The latter (and what's under discussion) ought to be determined and ruled on by Jaime -- other opinions, IMO, don't matter unless Jaime asks. That's my take and I'll probably lose this week to WJ for it.

[Bronn Stone]

2 minutes ago, Week said:

other opinions, IMO, don't matter unless Jaime asks.

My opinions are mine to share or not share as I see fit. A day may come when the courage of men fails, when we forsake our friends and break all bonds of fellowship. But it is not this day. An hour of wolves and shattered shields when the age of Men comes crashing down! But it is not this day! This day we fight! By all that you hold dear on this good Earth, I bid you stand! Men of the West