Has Cersei infiltrated Daenerys' Small Council?

[Lord Highland]

After Euron defeated Yara and the Unsullied became trapped in Casterly Rock, some theories are coming out about an agent of Cersei in Danny's Small Council. The Lannisters have anticipated all of Danny's and Tyrion's moves. I have read and heard it could be Varys, Olenna (now clearly not), Missandei or even Tyrion. It would be very surprising if it's Missandei but some people on Youtube think her interaction with Davos shows she is hiding smth. On the other hand, Varys seems to be providing very little intelligence right now. How could he not even know that Euron had the largest fleet in Westeros, especially once Euron stopped in King's Landing?

I don't think there is an informer, just well thought strategies by Cersei and Jaime, but Varys' incompetence does seem a little suspicious. Although it could be just a little oversight by D&D.

[Samwell_Tarly]

14 hours ago, Lord Highland said:

After Euron defeated Yara and the Unsullied became trapped in Casterly Rock, some theories are coming out about an agent of Cersei in Danny's Small Council. The Lannisters have anticipated all of Danny's and Tyrion's moves. I have read and heard it could be Varys, Olenna (now clearly not), Missandei or even Tyrion. It would be very surprising if it's Missandei but some people on Youtube think her interaction with Davos shows she is hiding smth. On the other hand, Varys seems to be providing very little intelligence right now. How could he not even know that Euron had the largest fleet in Westeros, especially once Euron stopped in King's Landing?

I don't think there is an informer, just well thought strategies by Cersei and Jaime, but Varys' incompetence does seem a little suspicious. Although it could be just a little oversight by D&D.

In a nut shell its just Dumb & Dumber brutalising the story, there needs to be a shift of power to cersei to make her 'win' or seem like it for the time being. This builds drama and tension for a penultimate scene(s). I dont disagree with this at all, but turning people into morons is stupid.

Varys planned an assassination on Daenerys from another continent and now doesnt even know where he shits from. Tyrion is the master mind behind Blackwater Bay and cant predict some simple things, has the drinking started to take its toll. 

 

I really dont suspect an informer but poor writing lack of thought by D&D

[El Guapo]

People are just overthinking things. The writers  couldn't have Dany start kicking ass right away so they need to give her some setbacks early on.  They have made Dany's advisors, specifically Tyrion, look like a fool though because of this.

[Samwell_Tarly]

8 minutes ago, El Guapo said:

People are just overthinking things. The writers  couldn't have Dany start kicking ass right away so they need to give her some setbacks early on.  They have made Dany's advisors, specifically Tyrion, look like a fool though because of this.

We agree on something El Guapo, never thought that day would come, didnt think winter would arrive but it did

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, Lord Highland said:

After Euron defeated Yara and the Unsullied became trapped in Casterly Rock, some theories are coming out about an agent of Cersei in Danny's Small Council. The Lannisters have anticipated all of Danny's and Tyrion's moves. I have read and heard it could be Varys, Olenna (now clearly not), Missandei or even Tyrion. It would be very surprising if it's Missandei but some people on Youtube think her interaction with Davos shows she is hiding smth. On the other hand, Varys seems to be providing very little intelligence right now. How could he not even know that Euron had the largest fleet in Westeros, especially once Euron stopped in King's Landing?

I don't think there is an informer, just well thought strategies by Cersei and Jaime, but Varys' incompetence does seem a little suspicious. Although it could be just a little oversight by D&D.

My guess is that once Euron had Yara and other ironborn prisoners, it wasn't long before he had the details of their full strategy. How he happened to just fall upon Yara's fleet, in the middle of the night with no warning at all, well that has to be magic.

 

 

[tormond]

yes she has, the spy name is Tyrion, her brother

[snow is the man]

well casterly rock was kinda obvious. And considering cersei had captured several key members of the war council that knew dany's plans. That said if you think about it jaime was planning to take the reach for it's food and would likely have realized that since dany had to attack it by land he could easily strand her troops there.

[Lord Highland]

I agree that Casterly Rock was easy to discover after Euron captured at least three people that new about it, but how is it possible Varys didn't even know about Euron's "largest fleet Westeros has ever seen"? I mean he has been head of intelligence in King's Landing for more than 2 decades, and that's where this largest fleet stopped.

[LucyMormont]

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

My guess is that once Euron had Yara and other ironborn prisoners, it wasn't long before he had the details of their full strategy. How he happened to just fall upon Yara's fleet, in the middle of the night with no warning at all, well that has to be magic.

Even if they know all Dani's  battle plans now, that  would only explain Lannister's "brilliance" or "good luck" in as how they managed to know them, it doesn't explain  Dany's advisors stupidity in making those plans, and not anticipating any of the possible scenarios.
Dani has the Master of Whisperers, but her intel is crap
Dani has dragons, a strategic advantage over everybody else, but they are apparently on vacation now, fishing and taking sun baths. 
Dani has Tyrion, who has proven himself as a competent player in "the Game", and who knows her siblings very well; yet he's unable to anticipate any of their moves.
 If the writers needed to level  the two sides, they should have made one side intelligent and the other more brilliant, not what they did, dumbing down one side to make the other seem smart.

Magic would have been more fitting that this "no explanation", give the Lannisters some sorcerer who can anticipate what the other side would do, and some Ways (as in the Wheel of Time universe) to transport armies, and why not?  fleets. 

[Raeslewolhn]

On 8/4/2017 at 5:42 PM, snow is the man said:

well casterly rock was kinda obvious. And considering cersei had captured several key members of the war council that knew dany's plans. That said if you think about it jaime was planning to take the reach for it's food and would likely have realized that since dany had to attack it by land he could easily strand her troops there.

Exactly. It makes sense militarily. For Euron to overtake them twice he only needed (1) info on locations of Dany's allies and troops and (2) the ability to sneak up on them.

1) Locations:

Olenna and the Sandsnakes are obvious joiners honestly, and them leaving with Varys was end of S6 a while bk, they're in *open* rebellion. Dany is way famous so word got to Westeros, we already know, about the fleet leaving Essos for Westeros. No mole for those info. 

Like Jaime, Euron easily concluded where they would land. Dragonstone is so obvious. He may have even sent scout ships (he had dozens b4 building new ones)...down the coast to be sure of where, and was waiting for them to come since Yara left. It's easy to spot that giant fleet landing at Westeros if you're looking properly. From there it's just a waiting game for Yaras fleet to split off from the dragons. No mole for those info.

So the only possible indication of a mole is how did Euron know Ellaria would be with Yara? Maybe the couple Dorne ships were with them? I don't think so....if anything it was an II, not a small council member who have that info to Euron. He got no info from Cersei about that. Still, this info was  Not required to beat Dany, just to ensure he caught Ellaria. He may have attacked Yara hoping she was with Yara and if not would have tortured the II for where Ellaria was before returning to Cersei. He just got lucky there. Lacking that info doesn't change his plan of attack anyway! Yara is his 1st enemy. 

 

2) Surprise attacks:

Varys only had time for 1-4 message turnovers (time isn't uniform in GoT episodes but the range limits I can explain if you still doubt this theory, lemme know), before they made these plans. Regardless of that number, It's def reasonable to assume he thought Euron was at KL allied with Cersei and staying there to defend it. He also stated clearly he knew they knew the Unsullied were coming. When he knew this it was too late to stop them.  

 

So who?

Just bc you lose once (1 plan really, they agreed on 2 attacks at one time, and continued to carry it out when they knew ppl were captured, which was a bad choice but they couldn't get to the Unsullied in time)...doesn't mean you have a mole. If they continue to lose at every turn I'll consider it. But who?:

Varys? I can't remember Cersei ever being a good liar (see S5-S6 for discussions of Varys post-Tyrion-smuggle). Not to mention Qyburn took Varys' birds and pushed them to murder. There's no indication he's still on team Cersei. People don't want to trust Varys but show!Varys is very much an unsunghero/good guy to the ppl// good to children and other Good (cap G) things. 

Tyrion? If you watched even just since S4 it's obvious Tyrion isn't going to betray Dany for Cersei. 

Def not the Unsullied or Dothraki they're Team Dany 110%.

No one leaves Dstone except Varys and the fleets that went to attack. Jon n them r still there and wouldn't give the Lannisters anything anyway...

 

IMO Team Dany's only mistake was not including Euron in those initial plans. They only planned for Cersei really. Dany has no Westeros generals right now. Her advisors are politically savvy, and Tyrion did extensive study on tactics but not greater strategy. It's not his forté. When Jorah returns theyll be more formidable.

[Tyrek Lannister]

That would be a cool twist, but it's something I don't believe D&D are capable of conjuring up honestly.

[Error-504]

29 minutes ago, Raeslewolhn said:

Exactly. It makes sense militarily. For Euron to overtake them twice he only needed (1) info on locations of Dany's allies and troops and (2) the ability to sneak up on them.

1) Locations:

Olenna and the Sandsnakes are obvious joiners honestly, and them leaving with Varys was end of S6 a while bk, they're in *open* rebellion. Dany is way famous so word got to Westeros, we already know, about the fleet leaving Essos for Westeros. No mole for those info. 

Like Jaime, Euron easily concluded where they would land. Dragonstone is so obvious. He may have even sent scout ships (he had dozens b4 building new ones)...down the coast to be sure of where, and was waiting for them to come since Yara left. It's easy to spot that giant fleet landing at Westeros if you're looking properly. From there it's just a waiting game for Yaras fleet to split off from the dragons. No mole for those info.

So the only possible indication of a mole is how did Euron know Ellaria would be with Yara? Maybe the couple Dorne ships were with them? I don't think so....if anything it was an II, not a small council member who have that info to Euron. He got no info from Cersei about that. Still, this info was  Not required to beat Dany, just to ensure he caught Ellaria. He may have attacked Yara hoping she was with Yara and if not would have tortured the II for where Ellaria was before returning to Cersei. He just got lucky there. Lacking that info doesn't change his plan of attack anyway! Yara is his 1st enemy. 

 

I don't think it is a stretch to think Ellarai would be on the ships heading to Dorne, to get the Dornish soldiers. 

[Raeslewolhn]

3 hours ago, Error-504 said:

 

I don't think it is a stretch to think Ellarai would be on the ships heading to Dorne, to get the Dornish soldiers. 

True. We don't know how far from Dstone they were when he attacked though, we don't know if he knew where they were gng or if he just saw Yaras ships leaving. But def not a stretch!

[Error-504]

2 hours ago, Raeslewolhn said:

True. We don't know how far from Dstone they were when he attacked though, we don't know if he knew where they were gng or if he just saw Yaras ships leaving. But def not a stretch!

There is really only one decent port in Dorne (Sunspear), so it was a logical conclusion that is where they would be heading. 

[A Ghost of Someone]

Qyburn controls the little Birds now. Where are all of the "smallfolk" on Dragonstone?

[Raeslewolhn]

On 8/6/2017 at 5:50 PM, Error-504 said:

There is really only one decent port in Dorne (Sunspear), so it was a logical conclusion that is where they would be heading. 

But it's a long way between Dstone and Sunspear. There are other ports in the stormlands and they could've been going further west/northwest. It's an easy conclusion to come to but he didn't have 100% confirmation of it. He just predicted is all I'm saying

[Raeslewolhn]

On 8/7/2017 at 10:16 AM, A Ghost of Someone said:

Qyburn controls the little Birds now. Where are all of the "smallfolk" on Dragonstone?

Varys can meet them on the shore of the Vale. He can send Ravens to the first bird in the chain, in the Vale or even in KL. There's a lot of poor kids, he can have a new network and must have ma y Qyburn didnt 'know about further down the chain. Mttp he just starts fresh probably.

[A Ghost of Someone]

1 hour ago, Raeslewolhn said:

Varys can meet them on the shore of the Vale. He can send Ravens to the first bird in the chain, in the Vale or even in KL. There's a lot of poor kids, he can have a new network and must have ma y Qyburn didnt 'know about further down the chain. Mttp he just starts fresh probably.

I would love for varys to retake control of the birds and take Qyburn out.

[Daske]

On ‎04‎/‎08‎/‎2017 at 2:29 PM, Samwell_Tarly said:

In a nut shell its just Dumb & Dumber brutalising the story, there needs to be a shift of power to cersei to make her 'win' or seem like it for the time being. This builds drama and tension for a penultimate scene(s). I dont disagree with this at all, but turning people into morons is stupid.

Varys planned an assassination on Daenerys from another continent and now doesnt even know where he shits from. Tyrion is the master mind behind Blackwater Bay and cant predict some simple things, has the drinking started to take its toll. 

I really dont suspect an informer but poor writing lack of thought by D&D

It's crazy to suppose that Varys or anyone else has anywhere near the network they used to (with the possible exception of Qyburn). Varys literally had to jump on a boat with a few minutes notice. I'm sure he had some contingency plans but he didn't expect to have to leave there and then - he just isn't going to have the same reach and numbers he used to have.

Even more so, for all the 'spy master' players involved (say Varys, Littlefinger and Cersei), they would have spend years (maybe decades) building-up their spy networks but now basically the continent has been devastated by war, battles, sackings, random killings, movements of population and hostile takeovers of seats of power. Hundreds of spies will have been killed and raven networks destroyed either on purpose or as collateral damage. Cersei probably killed a dozen of her own just in the sept. It's just not right to think of these people as having the same level of spies that they had a couple of years back when they could set all this up in detail and at leisure.

Think about what physically has to happen to set up a single two-way raven communication from scratch before you can even start using it. If Varys is not physically where the raven was bred (say Kings Landing) then he can't receive any of his messages via raven. He would have to breed or obtain more at wherever he is then send someone off with them for them to send the raven back at a later date. And then that spy would also have to breed ravens and send them physically back by road to Varys before Varys could send a message by raven in reverse. And that's best scenario, because oh no, he has now left Meereen (or wherever) and is in Dragonstone, so has to start up the whole raven breeding project again. As an added layer of complexity you also can't just accept the raven through the front door where anyone could intercept or read the message, you'd need to set up separate lines of comms from the Maester's (or equivalent) official raven in/out service (I suppose you might be able to use bribery and coded messages, but still, seems very risky. Cersei, Varys and Littlefinger were all at Kings Landing at the same time receiving & sending separate secret messages, many of which would have been treasonous - they must have had their separate raven networks). Anyway, my point, even if you did have all the spies you needed exactly where you wanted them, given all the upheaval, you probably wouldn't be able to communicate with them easily, if at all.