a1andrew

Theory about resolution of "Beast of Stone" Prophecy

205 posts in this topic

52 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Thank you. I'd say it's more likely that Willem Darry, or someone else who served at Dragonstone was the one who took them (would have been a great way to finance escape and taking care of the kids), but it comes to the same end. 

That doesn't sound very likely since Viserys III would then have been aware that he (once) had dragon eggs. In addition, chances are that Aerys II took the dragons he found on Dragonstone back to KL. It is where he lived and he did not exactly leave the Red Keep all that often in his last years. In fact, it would surprise me if he personally went to Dragonstone to look for them. He would have given the castellan and the men there command to search for Dragonstone and the men would then have the eggs they did and sent to court.

52 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

If magic really did leave the world, or substantially reduce, I imagine all the dragon eggs seemed to have turned to stone. 

Could be. But then the talk is that the passage of time turned some of them to stone. That implies that some of them are not stone. But that is inconsistent with the Butterwell egg.

52 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Do you subscribe to the theory that the maesters were poisoning the dragons? That's the only reservation I have about Dany's eggs possibly being family eggs...that they hatched healthy dragons would be less likely if there really was an anti-dragon conspiracy at the Citadel. But I don't entirely believe in the theory so I'm open to anything really.

The eggs Aerys II found on Dragonstone - both those who allegedly turned to stone as well as the others - were presumably produced by healthy dragons from the good old days, long before the dragons were poisoned. That the poisoned dragons might also have produced sick/deficient eggs is certainly possible. But then, the chances are very low that Dany's eggs come from the clutch of five eggs the last dragon produced. They would come from those ancient eggs Aerys II found 'in the depths of Dragonstone'.

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22 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That doesn't sound very likely since Viserys III would then have been aware that he (once) had dragon eggs. In addition, chances are that Aerys II took the dragons he found on Dragonstone back to KL. It is where he lived and he did not exactly leave the Red Keep all that often in his last years. In fact, it would surprise me if he personally went to Dragonstone to look for them. He would have given the castellan and the men there command to search for Dragonstone and the men would then have the eggs they did and sent to court.

Could be. But then the talk is that the passage of time turned some of them to stone. That implies that some of them are not stone. But that is inconsistent with the Butterwell egg.

The eggs Aerys II found on Dragonstone - both those who allegedly turned to stone as well as the others - were presumably produced by healthy dragons from the good old days, long before the dragons were poisoned. That the poisoned dragons might also have produced sick/deficient eggs is certainly possible. But then, the chances are very low that Dany's eggs come from the clutch of five eggs the last dragon produced. They would come from those ancient eggs Aerys II found 'in the depths of Dragonstone'.

Viserys was a kid. There's no reason Darry would necessarily have told him where he was getting the money to support them.

Hmm. Maybe Aerys thought that blowing up the city with wildfire might hatch the dragon eggs? 

Excellent point. Thank you for answering.

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1 minute ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Viserys was a kid. There's no reason Darry would necessarily have told him where he was getting the money to support them.

Darry was just the master-of-arms. Viserys was seven years when they fled, old enough to know whether he owned any dragon eggs or not. His mother would have shown them to him if they had some on Dragonstone.

If Darry had sold such eggs they would have ended up in Braavos, disappearing from the story. That is not very likely.

1 minute ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Hmm. Maybe Aerys thought that blowing up the city with wildfire might hatch the dragon eggs? 

Could very well be. But then, what we know for certain is that he tried to hatch them earlier and it did not work. It is more likely that he put them away and more or less forgot about them. The man was very changeable and more or less content with the wildfire alternative to dragonfire.

I'm sure he would have preferred to see dragons devouring and burning the people he sentenced to death. But seeing them being burned by wildfire was apparently the second-best thing.

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22 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Darry was just the master-of-arms. Viserys was seven years when they fled, old enough to know whether he owned any dragon eggs or not. His mother would have shown them to him if they had some on Dragonstone.

If Darry had sold such eggs they would have ended up in Braavos, disappearing from the story. That is not very likely.

Could very well be. But then, what we know for certain is that he tried to hatch them earlier and it did not work. It is more likely that he put them away and more or less forgot about them. The man was very changeable and more or less content with the wildfire alternative to dragonfire.

I'm sure he would have preferred to see dragons devouring and burning the people he sentenced to death. But seeing them being burned by wildfire was apparently the second-best thing.

Darry was no longer just the master-of-arms when it came time to flee. He was effectively the children's guardian and in control of their assets.

I don't necessarily think Rhaella would have shown dragon eggs to Viserys. Based on Barristan's POV we know that Viserys was already showing mini-Aerys tendencies in childhood. Rhaella might have thought it best to keep all things dragon from her son as much as it was possible to do so.

Braavos is a major sea port. He could have privately and quietly sold them to people from all over the world, and Braavos itself would have been nothing more than port of origin for the packages. One egg might have gone to the Sealord in exchange for letting them stay in his compound. That wouldn't have gotten them any cash, but a roof was definitely a good thing to have.

True.

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28 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Darry was no longer just the master-of-arms when it came time to flee. He was effectively the children's guardian and in control of their assets.

They didn't have any assets. Darry effectively had to abduct the children in the night. That doesn't make it likely he could actually take the treasury of Dragonstone or any valuables that were not kept in the apartments were the royal children lived.

28 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I don't necessarily think Rhaella would have shown dragon eggs to Viserys. Based on Barristan's POV we know that Viserys was already showing mini-Aerys tendencies in childhood. Rhaella might have thought it best to keep all things dragon from her son as much as it was possible to do so.

This doesn't make any sense. Rhaella herself crowned Viserys III with her own crown. Do you think she gave a shit about his mental state when she thought he should be king? He was her only surviving son and the future of House Targaryen. Darry was pretty much nothing while the Queen Dowager lived she was mistress of Dragonstone. Why shouldn't she show the dragon eggs to Viserys? They would have taken them from KL to Dragonstone in such a scenario. And what makes you think Aerys II or Rhaella told Darry anything about any dragon eggs? What makes you think this guy understood how valuable they might be? Dany herself doesn't know in AGoT. And what makes you think he cared enough about them to think take them when he took his king and princess?

28 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Braavos is a major sea port. He could have privately and quietly sold them to people from all over the world, and Braavos itself would have been nothing more than port of origin for the packages. One egg might have gone to the Sealord in exchange for letting them stay in his compound. That wouldn't have gotten them any cash, but a roof was definitely a good thing to have.

As Targaryens they shouldn't have had any trouble securing a place to live at Braavos in the first couple of years, even without a lot of coin. There is no need for them to have dragon eggs to do that.

This is the kind of speculation that leads nowhere if we have no textual evidence. And imagining that nobody but Darry and a bunch of dragon egg buyers may have known about that works just as well as the idea that Darry himself may have laid some dragon eggs while nobody was looking. We can't disprove that, either, can we?

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Posted (edited)

Love this particular piece of the puzzle, The Stone Beast is certainly one of the tougher ASOIAF cookies to try and crumble, there just isn't a whole got to go on at this point for many theories to gain real traction. It certainly has me stumped!

Great discussion and Kudos to everyone whoever solves this one. To be perfectly honest with you, each time I try to come up with a meaningful theory about the Stone Beast, I always end up thinking of some otherworldly creature or ghastly monster. Is this just me?

I mean, the Stone Beast took wing, and was breathing shadow fire in the vision - this certainly evokes Balerion, Drogon, Bran's dragon from his vision and possibly The Cannibal, or even hatched stone dragon eggs. A smoking tower could certainly be looked at as a metaphor for an active volcano. How this might unfold in relation to dragons is anyone's guess.

It could even be a byword for a grey plague suffering Aegon Blackfyre - let's not forget that the illness is said to heighten in aggression when the host is exposed to cold and damp surroundings, and with Winter approaching fast, the young Dragon could certainly be at risk of becoming a Stone Beast, if he is infected.

Other ideas I've encountered include an asteroid (which would have some kind of fire surrounding it due to the atmosphere); undead Jon Targaryen taking vengeance on The Night's Watch; someone finding the mythical Blood Stone/Oily Black Stone; Euron acending to the top of the Hightower to somehow transform himself into a Cthulhu-like hybrid of man, kraken and dragon - certainly very sphinxy.

Another scenario involves the Stone Beast as Bran. He has the obvious "tall tower connection" as well as the skinchangers gene. Now if he were to breathe fire whilst in the mind of a dragon, that fire could perhaps be described as a "shadow" to Bran, given that he would be there in essence only. He could be described as "Stone" because of his motionless state whilst in someone's mind (and he is apparently being groomed to be welded to a tree) and his connection to the earth.

An avenue to consider might be the fact that the vision does not describe the colour of the beast/shadow.

From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire 

The Others are described as white shadows, so perhaps the prophecy had a more Northern focus. Not sure what connection the armies of the cold have to Stone, but smoking tower could certainly hint at some ruckus atop the Shadow Tower. The took wing aspect could hint towards The Others having an ice dragon or skinchanging a regular one and somehow changing the fire to ice.

So far most of my theories regarding the matter end up looking something like this; 

Maybe the Stone Beast is a Jhogwin - because.....Stone Giants......:unsure: 

Now, to be fair, the last known Jhogwin met his end at the hands of Gharak-Squint Eye, jhattar of the Joghos Nhai. If ol' Gharak had issues with his vision, perhaps he failed to notice some hidden Jhogwin up in The Howling Hills of Essos (this could even be the reason he was given such an allias - a mocking title for one who looked but perhaps did not see).

Also, if the lyrics to the song "Last Of The Giants" were laid down long ago, then whoever came up with that jam was certainly wrong about the species extinction, per Wun Wun and company - so perhaps the tales about the Jhogwin's demise are false too...;)

(But alas, they probably can't breathe shadow fire, let alone fit in the staircase of a tall tower, so there you go!)

Edited by Leo of House Cartel

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I can't help but think of Mel because of 'shadow fire', and also Summerhall for the 'smoking tower'. If I connect these two ideas, maybe Mel has crack at waking the stone dragon for Stannis with fire magic, maybe in Dragonstone, which I believe has literal stone dragons along the castle walls.

So yeah...that's my crackpot contribution to this thread. Is it plausible?

 

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1 hour ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

I can't help but think of Mel because of 'shadow fire', and also Summerhall for the 'smoking tower'. If I connect these two ideas, maybe Mel has crack at waking the stone dragon for Stannis with fire magic, maybe in Dragonstone, which I believe has literal stone dragons along the castle walls.

So yeah...that's my crackpot contribution to this thread. Is it plausible?

 

One problem with this: it effectively makes two of the three Slayer of Lies visions into Stannis. I think each of them would be distinct from each other. That's also a reason I reject Jon Connington: he's too much a part of fAegon's story.

Two, a literal stone dragon being woken doesn't seem to fit with the topic of lies to be slain. Unless she just makes it look like the dragons came to life to cow people into submission or something? Some kind of really massive glamour?

Three, it would cheapen the three dragons hatching at the end of A Game of Thrones if similar events start occurring, even if it's not literally the same thing. It's also why I don't expect we'll see an "Ice Dragon" show up unless one of Daenery's dragons gets turned to the dark side.

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11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You mean Aerys II, right?

The relevant quote in TWoIaF states this:

That is a conscious and very deliberate allusion to the way Illyrio describes the dragon eggs he gives to Dany. George wants the reader to make that connection. It is not confirmation but a very clear hint, especially since we don't know what happened to those eggs or how many eggs Aerys had. If the attempts to hatch the eggs had destroyed them (like the fire and destruction of Summerhall most likely did with the seven eggs there) we would expect this to have been mentioned. Instead, we learn that an unknown number of dragon eggs was found in the years immediately before the Rebellion and no longer there after Rebellion. And that's not unimportant at all.

As to Butterwell's egg - we know that the dragon eggs the Targaryens handled back in those days weren't that old. Egg tells us in TMK that the last dragon left a clutch of five eggs and that his families has more eggs on Dragonstone from before the Dance.

The eggs Aerys II found on Dragonstone were apparently not eggs the Targaryens knew they had. The king got interested in/obsessed with dragons and dragonfire and then his people searched for and eventual found dragon eggs 'in the depths of Dragonstone'. That could mean that they sent people down in the caverns and caves of the old hatcheries and abodes of the Targaryen dragons on the island. Some of the eggs found this way could indeed be very old, stretching back to the first dragons to arrive on the island during the days of Aenar or perhaps even the first dragonlords to live there (those who took the island and raised the citadel of Dragonstone). After all, it seems that some of those eggs may have been found during archaeological digs, or something of that sort.

One also notes that only some of the eggs that were found were so old that they had turned to stone. Perhaps only three of them? The three Illyrio gave to Daenerys? Perhaps he thought they were the least likely to hatch considering their age and thus the ones he could part with while the newer eggs eventually went to Aegon? We have to wait and see.

But there is a discrepancy there - Butterwell's egg (which most likely was just a dragon egg Aegon IV had in his possession, not some ancient egg from before the Dance or before the Conquest) more or less look exactly like Dany's eggs or the way Egg describes his own egg and the eggs of Aerion and Aemon. It feels like stone, has the scales, and the weirdo colors reflecting the appearance of the dragon that may or may not hatch from the egg.

In that sense it doesn't seem all that likely that the passage of time actually turns dragon eggs to stone. It may just be a wrong belief people who no longer handled fresh dragon eggs acquired in the decades and centuries after the last dragon died.

But the point of the quoted line clearly is there for the benefit of the reader. We are supposed to connect the description of Aerys II's eggs to Illyrio's claim about Dany's eggs.

I don't know, man, the quote says that the stone ones were so old, and suggests that's why they were turned to stone. Doesn't that imply that any fresher ones were not stony? And I am sorry, but I don't see where it says that the Butterwell egg came from a recent clutch, and that it wasn't left over from days gone by. 

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On 8/12/2017 at 10:49 PM, Lord Varys said:

It is in TWoIaF. The dragon eggs Aerys II uncovers on Dragonstone after Duskendale are supposed to have turned to stone from the passage of time, too. It is too much of a coincidence to not be a deliberate hint. Not yet conclusive proof that Dany's eggs are (some of) those eggs but the pieces are all there.

Those eggs disappeared after the Rebellion. Robert didn't have any dragon eggs, and neither did Joffrey or Stannis. Mace even tells us in the Epilogue that there are no dragon eggs to be found on Dragonstone anymore. And if there were Stannis and Mel had tried to hatch them.

That makes it very likely Varys took them, gave them to Illyrio, who then gave three of them to Dany and possibly an unknown number to Aegon in those chests he gave to Haldon and Duck in ADwD.

It is pretty evident that the dragon eggs plot slowly gestated and developed while George was writing the story. At first Dany was supposed to chance upon an egg in the Dothraki Sea. Then she got those eggs from Illyrio who claimed they were from Asshai. And George apparently planned, for a time, to have Dany journey to Asshai. But with Dunk & Egg and the flashing out of the Targaryen history he established that the Targaryens always had had dragon eggs, put them in the cradles of their children, etc.

In light of all that it makes much more sense that Dany's eggs are Targaryen dragon eggs, too.

Back in AGoT things are really not all that developed. Dany's eggs are described as so old that they turned to stone but we now know that dragon eggs apparently always looked and felt like scaly stones, even if they were fresher (e.g. the Butterwell egg in TMK).

So if there are no eggs in the six chests that did not contain gold for the Golden company, does that mean you're wrong? 

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1 hour ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

I can't help but think of Mel because of 'shadow fire', and also Summerhall for the 'smoking tower'. If I connect these two ideas, maybe Mel has crack at waking the stone dragon for Stannis with fire magic, maybe in Dragonstone, which I believe has literal stone dragons along the castle walls.

So yeah...that's my crackpot contribution to this thread. Is it plausible?

 

I don't think so, unless Melisandre breaks from Stannis, since Stannis is the first vision in the slayer of lies triplet. The same reasoning suggests that Jon Connington is not the great stone beast since Aegon is the second vision. 

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23 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I don't know, man, the quote says that the stone ones were so old, and suggests that's why they were turned to stone. Doesn't that imply that any fresher ones were not stony? And I am sorry, but I don't see where it says that the Butterwell egg came from a recent clutch, and that it wasn't left over from days gone by. 

Indeed, it implies that the younger ones were not stony. But Egg is describing his egg, or the ones of Aerion and Aemon as any different from the Butterwell egg, does he? And his egg and the ones from his brothers seem to fresher eggs by far, considering that he first talks about the clutch the last dragon left rather than the older eggs from before the Dance that are still on Dragonstone and in the cradles of the dragon princes and princesses living in the Red Keep or Summerhall.

The Butterwell story implies that Aegon IV didn't give some old egg to Butterwell. The man visited the Butterwell castle and deflowered the three daughters of the lord and impregnated them all. Then he gave the man a dragon egg for compensation. Aegon the Unworthy isn't the guy to send some men to Dragonstone to search for some old eggs there. He would have given the man his own dragon egg. Or more likely the one of his sister-wife or brother. Or the one owned by the (late) Daena, or his cousin Rhaena who then most likely already was a septa. Hell, he could even have given away the dragon egg was was given to his own son, Daeron II.

But he wouldn't have searched for some old egg. During his day and age the Targaryens still had dragon eggs aplenty. Just as they did during the reign of Daeron II and Aerys I. Else no son of Maekar's would have ever gotten an egg. Those were insignificant princes at the very end of the line of succession.

28 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

So if there are no eggs in the six chests that did not contain gold for the Golden company, does that mean you're wrong? 

Nope. Illyrio could still think that this Aegon brat doesn't deserve some dragon eggs.

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1 hour ago, Damon_Tor said:

One problem with this: it effectively makes two of the three Slayer of Lies visions into Stannis. I think each of them would be distinct from each other. That's also a reason I reject Jon Connington: he's too much a part of fAegon's story.

Two, a literal stone dragon being woken doesn't seem to fit with the topic of lies to be slain. Unless she just makes it look like the dragons came to life to cow people into submission or something? Some kind of really massive glamour?

Three, it would cheapen the three dragons hatching at the end of A Game of Thrones if similar events start occurring, even if it's not literally the same thing. It's also why I don't expect we'll see an "Ice Dragon" show up unless one of Daenery's dragons gets turned to the dark side.

Yeah, if not for the first lie being Stannis, I would be certain that it's Melisandre-related. It's a stone beast, and Melisandre wants to raise a stone dragon. It breathes shadow fire, and Melisandre is a shadow and fire sorceress. But I can't think of any meaningful lie that isn't already covered by the blue eyed king with the red sword and no shadow. 

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What if it's Sweetrobin?

If he's Baelish's bastard then his legit surname would be "Stone". The irony of Jon Arryn not applying what he learned about hair color and genetics to his own family is hilarious.

I don't think it's right, and I can't imagine how it would impact Daenerys, but I wanted to bring up one possibility the use of the word "stone" could imply.

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Posted (edited)

8 hours ago, Damon_Tor said:

One problem with this: it effectively makes two of the three Slayer of Lies visions into Stannis. I think each of them would be distinct from each other.

[snip]

Yes. 2x Stannis makes no sense.

It seems relatively clear that the third verse in each triplet is a hint at Jon. So it would follow that the first two verses in each triplet rule out the 'wrong' candidates.

stanza 1, verse 1: Viserys as a dead would be prince/savior/Azor Ahai

               verse 2: Rhaego as a dead would be prince/savior/Azor Ahai

               verse 3: Rhaegar as Jon's father is also dead  - but Jon is alive

stanza 2 verse 1: Stannis as a 'lie' would be prince/savior/Azor Ahai

              verse 2: Aegon as a 'lie' would be prince/savior/Azor Ahai

              verse 3: Bran - and later a stone gargoyle - taking wing (falling) right at the   entrance to the crypts of winterfell which possibly contain the clue to uncover the greatest lie of the story: Jon's parentage

stanza 3 verse 1: Drogo was the wrong suitor

               verse 2: whoever that is is also the wrong suitor

               verse 3: Jon

Edited by Amris
accidently posted before finished

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15 hours ago, Leo of House Cartel said:

Love this particular piece of the puzzle, The Stone Beast is certainly one of the tougher ASOIAF cookies to try and crumble, there just isn't a whole got to go on at this point for many theories to gain real traction. It certainly has me stumped!

Classic Martin, isn't it? So many possibilities, and impossible to be absolutely certain of anything w/o more info. 

 

15 hours ago, Leo of House Cartel said:

Great discussion and Kudos to everyone whoever solves this one. To be perfectly honest with you, each time I try to come up with a meaningful theory about the Stone Beast, I always end up thinking of some otherworldly creature or ghastly monster. Is this just me?

No... 

At the moment I really like Euron, especially after reading some great posts about it here; one by @bent branch stands out.

15 hours ago, Leo of House Cartel said:

I mean, the Stone Beast took wing, and was breathing shadow fire in the vision - this certainly evokes Balerion, Drogon, Bran's dragon from his vision and possibly The Cannibal, or even hatched stone dragon eggs. A smoking tower could certainly be looked at as a metaphor for an active volcano. How this might unfold in relation to dragons is anyone's guess.

One thought that keeps coming back to me is the possibility of a volcano erupting on DS, and if there are dragons eggs there, old petrified ones... could a fierce volcano eruption cause these stone eggs to hatch? Perhaps if more of the recipe's ingredients were present as well?

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9 hours ago, Amris said:

It seems relatively clear that the third verse in each triplet is a hint at Jon. So it would follow that the first two verses in each triplet rule out the 'wrong' candidates.

That's a strong interpretation. I like that it looks at the whole picture and has an overall interpretation in mind. I'd go so far as to say this is my second favorite interpretation (after mine, naturally). It gives it a song-like quality. Well done.

I have some quibbles with the details. I don't care for the Gargoyle as the stone beast and smoking tower; "shadow fire" isn't covered at all, for example, and I'm struggling to think of how it would fit. And every other line in your example links back to a person, why does this one link back to a gargoyle? You seem to attempt to rectify this by drawing a parallel between the gargoyle and Bran, but it's a fairly weak link, especially when Bran has such potent imagery available for himself. As, for that matter, do the crypts. And I don't think anyone say Viserys as any kind of prophetic figure. Did he ever discuss himself in prophetic terms? I didn't think he did, but I suppose he could be wrong.

I like your holistic approach, but the particulars need some refinement IMO.

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The stone beast could refer to Jon after the resurrection. He is a "dragon" and a warg, and if he does come back as a wight (I hope he doesn't) after some R'hollor ritual involving fire and having no flowing blood it could fit better. He is a lie not because he is claiming the throne, but simply because he is not who he claims to be... the bastard son of Ned Stark. He could fit in the same possible threat group of Stanis and fAegon.

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The Tower of Joy probably smoked with dust and maybe fire when it was taken down by Ned after the Rebellion.  From there Jon was born, who is a Dragon, and the stone could be a metaphor for his un-deadness, ala Lady Stoneheart. And maybe the shadow he breathes is the news of the army of the dead.

So, maybe the Lie she slays is that Jon is Ned's bastard. 

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21 hours ago, Damon_Tor said:

One problem with this: it effectively makes two of the three Slayer of Lies visions into Stannis. I think each of them would be distinct from each other. That's also a reason I reject Jon Connington: he's too much a part of fAegon's story.

Two, a literal stone dragon being woken doesn't seem to fit with the topic of lies to be slain. Unless she just makes it look like the dragons came to life to cow people into submission or something? Some kind of really massive glamour?

Three, it would cheapen the three dragons hatching at the end of A Game of Thrones if similar events start occurring, even if it's not literally the same thing. It's also why I don't expect we'll see an "Ice Dragon" show up unless one of Daenery's dragons gets turned to the dark side.

How about if Mel does it for Jon or whoever she thinks is Azhor Ahai next, then? I was thinking less that she creates an actual living dragon, but rather that she animates a stone one. I dunno, I was just throwing some ideas out.

That said, I am pretty certain it's a literal stone beast we're dealing with. I haven't found any theories of it being metaphorical convincing enough. They all do too much tick-boxing.

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