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Forlong the Fat

Danaerys's Attack Made Perfect Geogrohaical Sense

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With all the complaints about "teleporting," I just want to point out a few things about last night's ambush. 

First, we see the Lannister army at Highgarden, discussing harvesting and collecting remaining grain. So we have established a task that will take at least a few days, and then a march on foot, with large, slow wagons, back to King's landing, which will take days if not weeks  

Next we see them what must be many days later--they have completed that task and marched all the way up the Rose Road to the Blackwater Rush (Tarly specifically says he wants to get the army across the Rush before nightfall and suggests floggins to facilitate it--nice dude). 

Sometime during the many days (if not weeks) during which this army of foot soldiers and wagons is first harvesting then marching, Dany decides to ambush them. She is already much closer to their final destination (and their final destination and route are anything but mysteries) than they are, when she makes this decision. 

All she has to do is sail the short distance between Dragonstone and an opportune place in black water bay that is out of sight of the Lannister army--say somewhere near Wendwater. Then, with a 100% mounted army, plus a flying dragon, she makes a mad dash down on the slow moving train on the Rose Road, near the Blackwater Rush. 

Absoluteley no teleporting need be involved in this, and it's actually all quite sensible if you look at a map. The remaining question would be why Tarly's outriders didn't provide a warning. Of course, a flying dragon would be pretty good at cooking outriders before they get a chance to bring back their reports. 

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On 8/7/2017 at 0:17 PM, Forlong the Fat said:

With all the complaints about "teleporting," I just want to point out a few things about last night's ambush. 

First, we see the Lannister army at Highgarden, discussing harvesting and collecting remaining grain. So we have established a task that will take at least a few days, and then a march on foot, with large, slow wagons, back to King's landing, which will take days if not weeks  

Next we see them what must be many days later--they have completed that task and marched all the way up the Rose Road to the Blackwater Rush (Tarly specifically says he wants to get the army across the Rush before nightfall and suggests floggins to facilitate it--nice dude). 

Sometime during the many days (if not weeks) during which this army of foot soldiers and wagons is first harvesting then marching, Dany decides to ambush them. She is already much closer to their final destination (and their final destination and route are anything but mysteries) than they are, when she makes this decision. 

All she has to do is sail the short distance between Dragonstone and an opportune place in black water bay that is out of sight of the Lannister army--say somewhere near Wendwater. Then, with a 100% mounted army, plus a flying dragon, she makes a mad dash down on the slow moving train on the Rose Road, near the Blackwater Rush. 

Absoluteley no teleporting need be involved in this, and it's actually all quite sensible if you look at a map. The remaining question would be why Tarly's outriders didn't provide a warning. Of course, a flying dragon would be pretty good at cooking outriders before they get a chance to bring back their reports. 

Probably so.  Given enough time, she could have landed her forces in Dorne or any suitable place on the coast.  As Varys said, Cersei doesn't have control over much of the land in the kingdom.

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3 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Probably so.  Given enough time, she could have landed her forces in Dorne or any suitable place on the coast.  As Varys said, Cersei doesn't have control over much of the land in the kingdom.

Dorne would be a long sail from Dragonstone.

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So land 10s of thousands of mounted troops hang around a couple of days and nobody noticed?

Tarly didn't have any out riders him Dickon Bron and the kingslayer where the only 4 knights available I believe :P

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Good points. Even if some common folk did see this massive army, they don't have ravens at their disposal in every town/village. Suppose they set out on foot to Kings Landing and actually made it without being nabbed by Dothrak. By the time they got there, got an audience with Cercei, she sends out ravens to the town in the area where she thinks Jaime might be, etc. etc. This ambush was not as far-fetched as some have said, especially considering the fact that armies have been ambushing and attacking each other without warning in real world history for forever, 

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30 minutes ago, mattnj81 said:

Good points. Even if some common folk did see this massive army, they don't have ravens at their disposal in every town/village. Suppose they set out on foot to Kings Landing and actually made it without being nabbed by Dothrak. By the time they got there, got an audience with Cercei, she sends out ravens to the town in the area where she thinks Jaime might be, etc. etc. This ambush was not as far-fetched as some have said, especially considering the fact that armies have been ambushing and attacking each other without warning in real world history for forever

This is en exceedingly good point--one wonders how the word "ambush" ever came into existence if one army surprising another is really so far-fetched.

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39 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

So land 10s of thousands of mounted troops hang around a couple of days and nobody noticed?

Tarly didn't have any out riders him Dickon Bron and the kingslayer where the only 4 knights available I believe :P

Dany's ambush didn't require nobody to notice. It required nobody with the inclination and ability to warn the Lannisters to notice.

As for outriders, a Dothraki Hoard at full gallop and a flying dragon out to be able to take care of them pretty easily.

And one would presume that the strongest force was guarding the gold that already reached king's landing.  The attack was on the straggling tail of wagons and men bringing in grain and wine. 

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49 minutes ago, Forlong the Fat said:

This is en exceedingly good point--one wonders how the word "ambush" ever came into existence if one army surprising another is really so far-fetched.

One could make the case that it is a tactic for small, mobile forces operating on their home turf as opposed to large invading armies. But with the points we've both already mentioned, it really isn't that far-fetched for the Dothraki to pull it off. Especially when Dany can fly her dragon up into the cloud cover to get positions of enemy forces.

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On ‎8‎/‎7‎/‎2017 at 0:17 PM, Forlong the Fat said:

snip

 

4 hours ago, mattnj81 said:

Good points. Even if some common folk did see this massive army, they don't have ravens at their disposal in every town/village. Suppose they set out on foot to Kings Landing and actually made it without being nabbed by Dothrak. By the time they got there, got an audience with Cercei, she sends out ravens to the town in the area where she thinks Jaime might be, etc. etc. This ambush was not as far-fetched as some have said, especially considering the fact that armies have been ambushing and attacking each other without warning in real world history for forever, 

Sorry, I don't buy it. The timing may be doable, but a horde of Dothraki landing anywhere on the mainland -- something that has never happened before -- would be huge news and anyone who saw them would flee right to the nearest castle, which would send ravens to anyone and everyone to come and repel the invasion. Even if they did land at the Wendwater and it was only a day's march, you still have a fleet sailing into the bay, which would be seen by thousands, then they have to anchor somewhere, row ten thousand men and horses onto shore, form up, begin the march...

So like the Vale's surprise attack on the Bolton's, there is simply no way an army of that size could get anywhere close to its destination without word of its movements arriving beforehand. At best, you can have a forced march at night over a relatively short distance, as the Boltons did on the Green Fork, but it's not like your opponent would be completely clueless that you've even taken the field.

Ambushes do happen, but not between massive armies marching over open land.

 

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4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 

Sorry, I don't buy it. The timing may be doable, but a horde of Dothraki landing anywhere on the mainland -- something that has never happened before -- would be huge news and anyone who saw them would flee right to the nearest castle, which would send ravens to anyone and everyone to come and repel the invasion. Even if they did land at the Wendwater and it was only a day's march, you still have a fleet sailing into the bay, which would be seen by thousands, then they have to anchor somewhere, row ten thousand men and horses onto shore, form up, begin the march...

So like the Vale's surprise attack on the Bolton's, there is simply no way an army of that size could get anywhere close to its destination without word of its movements arriving beforehand. At best, you can have a forced march at night over a relatively short distance, as the Boltons did on the Green Fork, but it's not like your opponent would be completely clueless that you've even taken the field.

Ambushes do happen, but not between massive armies marching over open land.

 

The ravens they sent would warn the Lannister army how? I don't think you know how ravens work. 

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As to the questions of scouts......I'm sure Dany would have sent out scouts too with unnecessary instructions to kill any enemy scouts you see while scouting so they don't make it back to tell......

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16 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 

Sorry, I don't buy it. The timing may be doable, but a horde of Dothraki landing anywhere on the mainland -- something that has never happened before -- would be huge news and anyone who saw them would flee right to the nearest castle, which would send ravens to anyone and everyone to come and repel the invasion. Even if they did land at the Wendwater and it was only a day's march, you still have a fleet sailing into the bay, which would be seen by thousands, then they have to anchor somewhere, row ten thousand men and horses onto shore, form up, begin the march...

So like the Vale's surprise attack on the Bolton's, there is simply no way an army of that size could get anywhere close to its destination without word of its movements arriving beforehand. At best, you can have a forced march at night over a relatively short distance, as the Boltons did on the Green Fork, but it's not like your opponent would be completely clueless that you've even taken the field.

Ambushes do happen, but not between massive armies marching over open land.

 

The Dothraki could have left a small force to shoot down ravens (i.e. the Northmen at the Twins) and prevent/delay word form reaching King's Landing. I get the points you're making, I just think this is far the most far-fetched thing to happen on this show. If Robb could march an army of  Northmen to the Twins undetected, then do it again to Jaime at Riverrun; and the Lannister and Tyrell armies could march to Kings Landing undetected (granted Stannis was at sea, but only for a short duration) then I think the show has set the precedent that such attacks are possible.  

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Remember that Robb's men caught a lannister scout before he split his army at the Twins. So scouts can also becaptured in order to keep surprise intact.

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On ‎8‎/‎10‎/‎2017 at 9:16 PM, Forlong the Fat said:

The ravens they sent would warn the Lannister army how? I don't think you know how ravens work. 

Um, ravens carry messages. The message would contain the news that a Dothraki horde has just landed on the mainland, and they have a big-ass dragon.

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On ‎8‎/‎11‎/‎2017 at 9:12 AM, mattnj81 said:

The Dothraki could have left a small force to shoot down ravens (i.e. the Northmen at the Twins) and prevent/delay word form reaching King's Landing. I get the points you're making, I just think this is far the most far-fetched thing to happen on this show. If Robb could march an army of  Northmen to the Twins undetected, then do it again to Jaime at Riverrun; and the Lannister and Tyrell armies could march to Kings Landing undetected (granted Stannis was at sea, but only for a short duration) then I think the show has set the precedent that such attacks are possible.  

Everybody knew the Northern army was marching south. They were hardly undetected.

The feint at Riverrun worked because Robb sent a decoy army of mostly foot soldiers down the kingsroad while the horse made its way through friendly territory toward Riverrun. They were seen as liberators come to rescue them from the invading Lannister army, so no ravens were sent. Yes, they did a good job of taking out Jaime's outriders, which is a lot easier to do in the woodlands than in the wide open vistas of the Reach. From the terrain we saw in the show, you wouldn't even need outriders to see that army coming -- just one guy up on a hill would have been enough.

The Lannister/Tyrell army met at the headwaters of the Blackwater Rush and sailed to King's Landing quick as you please. That area had already been conquered by Tywin, so all of the castles, keeps and holdfasts would either be held by his men or empty. And even if they were still loyal to Riverrun, they wouldn't bother sending a message to King's Landing anyway.

Agreed that this is hardly the biggest blunder in the show, and I'm not complaining about it either. It's only television. But no, the way that battle played out, just like the Battle of the Bastards, there is no way any army that size could sneak up on you undetected.

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1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Um, ravens carry messages. The message would contain the news that a Dothraki horde has just landed on the mainland, and they have a big-ass dragon.

To what destination would the ravens carry the message?  I say again, I don't think you know how ravens work.

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4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Um, ravens carry messages. The message would contain the news that a Dothraki horde has just landed on the mainland, and they have a big-ass dragon.

But we assume people wanted to warn the Lannisters. The Lannisters just massacred a very wealthy and probably popular family,  after blowing up the Great Sept. 

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On 2017-08-07 at 6:17 PM, Forlong the Fat said:

With all the complaints about "teleporting," I just want to point out a few things about last night's ambush. 

First, we see the Lannister army at Highgarden, discussing harvesting and collecting remaining grain. So we have established a task that will take at least a few days, and then a march on foot, with large, slow wagons, back to King's landing, which will take days if not weeks  

Next we see them what must be many days later--they have completed that task and marched all the way up the Rose Road to the Blackwater Rush (Tarly specifically says he wants to get the army across the Rush before nightfall and suggests floggins to facilitate it--nice dude). 

Sometime during the many days (if not weeks) during which this army of foot soldiers and wagons is first harvesting then marching, Dany decides to ambush them. She is already much closer to their final destination (and their final destination and route are anything but mysteries) than they are, when she makes this decision. 

All she has to do is sail the short distance between Dragonstone and an opportune place in black water bay that is out of sight of the Lannister army--say somewhere near Wendwater. Then, with a 100% mounted army, plus a flying dragon, she makes a mad dash down on the slow moving train on the Rose Road, near the Blackwater Rush. 

Absoluteley no teleporting need be involved in this, and it's actually all quite sensible if you look at a map. The remaining question would be why Tarly's outriders didn't provide a warning. Of course, a flying dragon would be pretty good at cooking outriders before they get a chance to bring back their reports. 

Dude the series has gone from a smart series to a low iq series that dosnt give a shit about any logic or anything. Nothing makes sense anymore and nothing is complex its all spartacus where people rate it based on how many get killed.

 

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3 hours ago, Coolbeard the Exile said:

Dude the series has gone from a smart series to a low iq series that dosnt give a shit about any logic or anything. Nothing makes sense anymore and nothing is complex its all spartacus where people rate it based on how many get killed.

 

Dude, that doesn't respond to a single one of the points I made. 

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12 minutes ago, Forlong the Fat said:

Dude, that doesn't respond to a single one of the points I made. 

How does Danerys keep 200,000 men supplied on Dragonstone where Stannis barely survived?

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