Rightful King

[YOVMO]

I know this has been discussed a lot, but I just was thinking about it and went back into old posts and am still confused as to who comes after Tommen in the line of succession. Obviously the "rightful" king is a concept that ends at sword point and the line of succession can be changed. That said, currently Tommen I sits the throne. Forgetting Dany's Targ claim and Jon's possible (though I wouldn't say absolute) claim should R+L=J be true, if Tommen dies who would be next in line.

 

The reason I ask is this....when there is an obvious heir apparent (Rhaegar, Joffery) they are not just princes but Crowned Princes. While there is obviously no issue from the still quite young Tommen one would think that there would be some kind od mechanism (especially in these troubled times) for naming the heir to the throne and that person would probably be given some form of royal protection, maybe even a kingsguard, and possibly some kind of responsibility...traditionally that would be Lord of Dragonstone....where he would serve until needed.

So who is it? Would it be some Eastermont or because Robert's claim was based on him being from Rhaella Targaryen's line (on paper at least) would that disqualify the Eastermonts? Would Shireen Baratheon? Or maybe some Baratheon Cousin. I mean it is kind of hard to believe that there are simply no other true born Baratheons in the world.

[TMIFairy]

The succession to the IT is a mess.

The Westeros standard is "sons before daughters, daughters before uncles".

At some point the Targaryens adopted the "all males before all females" succession.

I do not believe that under Robert the issues of exactly which order of succession the Royal Baratheons are following was not clarified. There was no need for it, actually, as Stannis was replaced as heir by Jofrey. Had Cerei's firstborn been a daughter then a clarification would had been necessary.

So, depending on whether the Westeros Standard or Targaryen Style are used:

1 - Tommon -> Myrcella -> Stannis -> Shireen

2 - Tommen -> Stannis -> and ...

... here again there are two possibilites:

a/ Myrcella - as she is closer to the "main line", i.e. Tommen

b/ Shireen - as she is closer to the "last claimant" i.e. Stannis

Both a/ and b/ were used in OTL Europe.

So, make your pick

Once the Kings Landing and Dragonstone Baratheons are wiped out then:

- either some House where some unknown (?) to us Baratheon lady had married into in the past

- or the last house to have a Targaryen Princess marry into it

could claim the throne.

 

 

 

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

After Tommen, it's Myrcella. No question. Anybody who already supports Sackville-Bagginses Lannister-Baratheons will keep betting on the same horse, the small detail of Myrcella being a girl won't matter all that much.

Assuming Myrcella snuffed it, too - mayhem. Stannis, obviously, has a case. There's no formal reason he shouldn't get it then - 'cept for being a "traitor", a "heathen" and universally considered a jerk. Funny enough, Shireen would be better accepted than him.

After the two are gone - free for all, really. Targ claims. Baratheon claims (some distant Baratheon relatives, or some alleged distant Baratheon relatives, will pop out out of nowhere, and get some little-to-medium fraction). Lannister claims - if you consider Eastermonts (so, claim flowing up, instead of down), then Cersei at least can say "I am a queen and a mother of two kings, oh, and I'm a fucking Lannister, daughter of Casterly Rock and the head of the most powerful House in the realm", which sounds a little stronger than Lord Eastermont's "my sister/aunt/cousin married Lord Steffon and birthed King Robert, and Greenstone is a lovely little island".

Of course, you can't really discount Dany's claim here. When fishing among some royal second cousins twice removed, the girl who can say "My father was a king" sounds like a first-class monarch material.

[YOVMO]

5 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

After the two are gone - free for all, really

yeah, this is really what it boils down to. I am pretty sure Stannis' clock is running out. That said, I feel Stannis would have better claim than Marcella because vagina. But I guess the answer I really want is, given Stannis and Marcella dead who would a guy like Selmy, a by the book, honor driven guy, consider king

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

1 minute ago, YOVMO said:

yeah, this is really what it boils down to. I am pretty sure Stannis' clock is running out. That said, I feel Stannis would have better claim than Marcella because vagina. But I guess the answer I really want is, given Stannis and Marcella dead who would a guy like Selmy, a by the book, honor driven guy, consider king

Ah. But that, too, isn't simple, even if you narrow it down to honorable people.

Barry himself already bet on Dany.

Davos, another paragon of honor, is Team Stannis through and through.

Bear Island knows no king but King in the North, whose name is STARK.

Ser Loras seems genuine with his devotion to Tommen. OK, "seems", but still.

And I'm not calling "dishonorable" any of them.

[YOVMO]

1 minute ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Ah. But that, too, isn't simple, even if you narrow it down to honorable people.

Barry himself already bet on Dany.

Davos, another paragon of honor, is Team Stannis through and through.

Bear Island knows no king but King in the North, whose name is STARK.

Ser Loras seems genuine with his devotion to Tommen. OK, "seems", but still.

And I'm not calling "dishonorable" any of them.

Yeah, makes sense. I really see this insanity all leading up to the destruction of the throne.

[kissdbyfire]

Drogon will melt the damned thing and rid the 7K of this very ugly and uncomfortable chair. 

Agree w/ most here, after Tommen, Myrcella. Then Stannis and Shireen but it won't get to that imo.

[cgrav]

I really don't see Myrcella being assented to readily, if at all. The unacceptability of a female succeeding to the IT was/is a big part of Arianne Martell's plot: they would engineer a conflict by declaring for a Myrcella, which they assumed would be rebuffed by the rest of Westeros. Obviously we don't know that would actually play out unless Tommen dies before her, but the difference is given cultural significance, so I very much doubt that very many houses would line up behind Myrcella without being "convinced".

So the answer is Gendry. By right anyway, which is pretty much an abstract hypothetical at this point.

[kissdbyfire]

4 minutes ago, cgrav said:

I really don't see Myrcella being assented to readily, if at all. The unacceptability of a female succeeding to the IT was/is a big part of Arianne Martell's plot: they would engineer a conflict by declaring for a Myrcella, which they assumed would be rebuffed by the rest of Westeros. Obviously we don't know that would actually play out unless Tommen dies before her, but the difference is given cultural significance, so I very much doubt that very many houses would line up behind Myrcella without being "convinced".

So the answer is Gendry. By right anyway, which is pretty much an abstract hypothetical at this point.

But Myrcella means Cersei Lannister, so Myrcella will be accepted or not depending on how isolated Cersei is or isn't. It could be interesting, actually. 

As to the bold, Gendry has zero rights or claims at the mo b/c he is a bastard. Not only a bastard, but baseborn to boot. Even if a king legitimises him, it won't do much good unless it is the king on the IT. In addition, Robert never acknowledged him, unlike Edric Storm and Mya Stone. 

[Lockjaw of House Boltagon]

Objectively, unlawful twincest bastards aside, the line should be:

Aegon (if he's real) ---> Jon (if he's trueborn) ---> Dany ---> Stannis ---> Shireen

 

[UnFit Finlay]

28 minutes ago, cgrav said:

I really don't see Myrcella being assented to readily, if at all. The unacceptability of a female succeeding to the IT was/is a big part of Arianne Martell's plot: they would engineer a conflict by declaring for a Myrcella, which they assumed would be rebuffed by the rest of Westeros. Obviously we don't know that would actually play out unless Tommen dies before her, but the difference is given cultural significance, so I very much doubt that very many houses would line up behind Myrcella without being "convinced".

So the answer is Gendry. By right anyway, which is pretty much an abstract hypothetical at this point.

Well, no, they assumed it would cause a conflict solely because they knew that the Lannisters would crown Tommen and that would cause war between the two Houses. It's been a while since I've read A Feast For Crows, granted, but I really don't remember any suggestion that they were going to wage war against the entire rest of the realm. That would be insanity. I took it as them trying to take advantage of the Lannisters lack of popularity and assumed that a lot of people would welcome the chance to back Dorne.

13 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

As to the bold, Gendry has zero rights or claims at the mo b/c he is a bastard. Not only a bastard, but baseborn to boot. Even if a king legitimises him, it won't do much good unless it is the king on the IT. In addition, Robert never acknowledged him, unlike Edric Storm and Mya Stone. 

Yup. Gendry isn't even the oldest of Robert's bastards. As far as we're aware Mya is. That isn't even getting into the fact that absolutely nobody in Westeros is accepting a baseborn, bastard, blacksmith as their King. Not that Gendry would want it either. Look at his reaction when he found out 'Arry was Arya Stark of Winterfell? Imagine him trying to hold court? He'd hate every second of it.

[cgrav]

27 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

But Myrcella means Cersei Lannister, so Myrcella will be accepted or not depending on how isolated Cersei is or isn't. It could be interesting, actually. 

As to the bold, Gendry has zero rights or claims at the mo b/c he is a bastard. Not only a bastard, but baseborn to boot. Even if a king legitimises him, it won't do much good unless it is the king on the IT. In addition, Robert never acknowledged him, unlike Edric Storm and Mya Stone. 

Well I think the premise of the topic is who is the rightful heir according strictly to the rules of succession. Without a clear successor it's a hierarchy of exceptions, so it really is pretty unclear. Is bastardy a more allowable exception than femininity? Dorne obviously allows female succession, but the rest of Westeros may consider a male bastard above a female trueborn. 

I almost picked Edric Storm, actually, but went with Gendry solely because of age. You're right that acknowledgment may be a factor, seeing as no living people know who Gendry is.

And if bastardy is a total no go, then I'd say the succession needs to move backwards to Stannis. GRRM was clever enough to kill most of Robert's family, leaving no nephews or cousins to succeed.

[kissdbyfire]

20 minutes ago, cgrav said:

Well I think the premise of the topic is who is the rightful heir according strictly to the rules of succession. Without a clear successor it's a hierarchy of exceptions, so it really is pretty unclear. Is bastardy a more allowable exception than femininity? Dorne obviously allows female succession, but the rest of Westeros may consider a male bastard above a female trueborn. 

I almost picked Edric Storm, actually, but went with Gendry solely because of age. You're right that acknowledgment may be a factor, seeing as no living people know who Gendry is.

And if bastardy is a total no go, then I'd say the succession needs to move backwards to Stannis. GRRM was clever enough to kill most of Robert's family, leaving no nephews or cousins to succeed.

Yes, that's the premise of the OP as I understood it as well. And I maintain what I said above. After all, we're talking about a rightful heir, something you seem to agree w/, and there's no way for Gendry to be the rightful heir to my very old car, let alone the IT.

We know the laws (and customs) dealing w/ succession are complex and unclear at times, as Martin has said so himself. However, there are laws and customs in place, and according to them Gendry can't be heir of anything. A =true= king must legitimise him first, and then he can be considered. 

ps: as it stands now, Stannis is the rightful heir, even ahead of the lion cubs b/c they're all bastards even if Westeros is still ignoring the issue [for now].

[elder brother jonothor dar]

Myrcella is the heir but would be a problem for the Tyrell if Tommen died without issue.  Their loyalty to the crown would no longer be through marriage and therefore their support would not be 100% which in turn is a problem for the Lannisters.

If Myrcella dies first Tommen would find himself in the same situation as Robb and would need to find and name an heir until he can produce one.  (The only possible solution would not to do so and hope for a heir asap, or Cersei and Willas to wed and keep the alliance going which would be very unlikely)

If all of Roberts "children" died then line of succession won't matter, it will come down to who sits on the Iron throne and who can keep it.

(Targ line of succesion might come in to it if they can claim the throne in the first place)

[cgrav]

36 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Yes, that's the premise of the OP as I understood it as well. And I maintain what I said above. After all, we're talking about a rightful heir, something you seem to agree w/, and there's no way for Gendry to be the rightful heir to my very old car, let alone the IT.

We know the laws (and customs) dealing w/ succession are complex and unclear at times, as Martin has said so himself. However, there are laws and customs in place, and according to them Gendry can't be heir of anything. A =true= king must legitimise him first, and then he can be considered. 

ps: as it stands now, Stannis is the rightful heir, even ahead of the lion cubs b/c they're all bastards even if Westeros is still ignoring the issue [for now].

yeah, it's all a matter of which exceptions to the rule are more acceptable. By the rules strictly (and still ignoring the likely Targs), only Stannis is the heir, and if he dies there's nobody else that people know of. I think there really are not any more highborns with the Baratheon name. 

So we have to trace the line back up the Baratheon line to find a cousin or nephew, but there aren't any remaining on the Baratheon side, so you have to go to the Targaryen side, and that brings us right back to Dany, Jon, and Aegon. And prior to Feast, Maester Aemon (abdication of inheritance notwithstanding), as he was the last known living male Targaryen.

And if nobody believes Jon or Aegon, and they deny Dany, then it would be some descendant of Daeron or Aerion. Targ royalty goes all the way back, so you can play this game endlessly, really.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Man, it's wide open. Has Myrcella been declared the heir presumptive? Cersei seems to think so, no? But I wonder if Mace might be able to have Margaery succeed her husband as queen regnant, wedding her to a powerful ally, or perhaps an Estermont? Stannis is attainted, and his claim follows Robert rather than the abominations born of incest. House Lannister would not surrender control easily, so an argument could be made for a mother or a maternal cousin. And then there's the blood royal, upon which Robert’s claim was at least partly justified, opening the door for succession by Daenerys or Aegon.