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(f)Aegon consensus ?


Jojen Dayne-Reed

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Just a side note for R+L=fA:

if this theory were true, it would mean that Ned's promise to Lyanna was to send her son away and never, ever, pay him a single thought, apparently.

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13 hours ago, Jojen Dayne-Reed said:

Quick question guys.  Is there a consensus on (f)Aegon.  From my time on this forum I had thought the majority opinion was that R+L=J and that Aegon is Illyrio's son and Vary's nephew and a Brightflame/Blackfire.  

But I just read a sight that referred to him as R&L's son definitively.  Is this still an up in the air thing? Did I miss a change of opinion or was it more divided than I thought?

 

He is Rhaegar and Lyannas son.

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10 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

And there are those like me who think he's either real or a Blackfyre but don't much care which and lean toward real because the drama potential is actually much higher if he's Rhaegar and Elia's son (and because honestly he makes a better smokescreen for a Blackfyre than an actual Blackfyre...who wants a pretender from an exiled line who doesn't even know he's a pretender from an exiled line?).

 

 

I am anticipating the time when Dany is ready to set sail for Westeros only to hear the son of her brother has already taken the Iron Throne. She has then to decide what to do, and I am pretty sure some people around her will start talking about mummer´s dragons, the Undying prophecies and those Blackfyre connections. I am also quite confident she will eventually say something along the lines of: "F him off, I am the True Dragon". This would be really ironic i we, as the readers, were definitely told Aegon is the real deal.

Also, if you subscribe, as I do, to the "Prophecy is bogus" theory, it would fit nicely with the "sending false visions... all for the end of turning brother against sister" (Dying of the Light). 

 

But the "Aegon is real Theory", in my opinion, has a serious flaw. Varys, and even more so Illyrio, lack motivation involving themselves in the plan, at least with the information we currently have. I have to admit that the "Brigtfyre Theory" addresses this issue really well.

 

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24 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

You say real world genetics does not apply?  Sure.  In that case GRRM can do what he likes, and Aegon VI can indeed grow darker as he ages, as many real world children do, and which is common-knowledge to EVERYONE.  No scientific dissertation required.

So what you are doing is taking counterexamples of blond adults who were also blond children.  Yeah, you're right.  Any adult who is a natural blond as an adult, will also have been a blond child (usually, an even-lighter blond).  But you cannot reverse the equation.  All x may be y; but that does not mean all y is x.  

The fact remains that many blond babies (in fact, I suspect probably most of them) turn into brown-haired adults.  And sure, if you come from a family of blond adults (like many Targs), this is less likely to happen than for the average blond baby.  But Aegon's heritage has no such guaranty.  Aegon's mother is dark; as apparently is Aegon's older sister (if that's what "looks like a Martell" means).  

And GRRM can use this fact to fake out the reader, so they don't recognize Baby Aegon when he shows up in the story.  And, IMHO, that is playing perfectly fair; even if he does not shower you with 1000 in-world examples of blond babies that turned into brown-haired adults.  

But in fact, Shaggydog's fur did darken as he aged.  I suppose you'll argue that does not count 'cause he's a wolf.  

Doesn't matter.  If some Targs can have black hair, and some Targs can be albinos, and some Targs can have mismatched colored eyes, then some Targs can darken from blond to brown as they age.

Obviously GRRM can do what he wants with genetics, but in the real world, babies' eye color and hair color is basically set by about 6 months old. Aegon was about 18 months old when he was killed/swapped. Again, your theory is technically possible as far as I can tell, but I think that would be a huge stretch to say that an 18 month old Targ-looking Aegon grew up to look Dornish.

I am also curious, why are so confident that this baby swap occurred? I get that it is sort of a "neat and tidy" explanation, and that the pieces sort of "fit" but again I don't see any evidence for Varys and Doran working together. And I am completely baffled as to why Doran has just sent Arianne to meet with Aegon and not tell her it is her brother, and then at the same time sabotage their potential alliance by sending Daemon Sand with her. All of the clues point to Doran not supporting Aegon in TWOW. The entire Doran plot really just doesn't make sense with your theory.

Also, is this a theory you came up with, or is it from somewhere else originally?

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5 hours ago, Armand Gargalen said:

<snip

Also, if you subscribe, as I do, to the "Prophecy is bogus" theory, it would fit nicely with the "sending false visions... all for the end of turning brother against sister" (Dying of the Light). 

 

But the "Aegon is real Theory", in my opinion, has a serious flaw. Varys, and even more so Illyrio, lack motivation involving themselves in the plan, at least with the information we currently have. I have to admit that the "Brigtfyre Theory" addresses this issue really well.

 

I'm one of those people who thinks authors can do things differently in different works, so what he's done in previous books doesn't necessarily convince me he'll do exactly the same in these. Besides which he already has Mel misreading her visions, and he won't want to do too much of that.

I also lean toward Varys being a Brightflame descendant, and as such also a Targaryen loyalist. Illyrio is in it for money and power. Having supported Aegon's rise to power, he will have a major ally to help him advance in Pentos beyond what he might otherwise have been able to do, and get all kinds of lucrative trade deals with Westeros. He's not just a cheesemonger. He deals in all kinds of things, including dragonbone. This is a way for him to cash in big time on his friendship with Varys. Slightly different game than the one they used to play, but with a much bigger payout too.

49 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

You say real world genetics does not apply?  Sure.  In that case GRRM can do what he likes, and Aegon VI can indeed grow darker as he ages, as many real world children do, and which is common-knowledge to EVERYONE.  No scientific dissertation required.

So what you are doing is taking counterexamples of blond adults who were also blond children.  Yeah, you're right.  Any adult who is a natural blond as an adult, will also have been a blond child (usually, an even-lighter blond).  But you cannot reverse the equation.  All x may be y; but that does not mean all y is x.  

The fact remains that many blond babies (in fact, I suspect probably most of them) turn into brown-haired adults.  And sure, if you come from a family of blond adults (like many Targs), this is less likely to happen than for the average blond baby.  But Aegon's heritage has no such guaranty.  Aegon's mother is dark; as apparently is Aegon's older sister (if that's what "looks like a Martell" means).  

And GRRM can use this fact to fake out the reader, so they don't recognize Baby Aegon when he shows up in the story.  And, IMHO, that is playing perfectly fair; even if he does not shower you with 1000 in-world examples of blond babies that turned into brown-haired adults.  

But in fact, Shaggydog's fur did darken as he aged.  I suppose you'll argue that does not count 'cause he's a wolf.  

Doesn't matter.  If some Targs can have black hair, and some Targs can be albinos, and some Targs can have mismatched colored eyes, then some Targs can darken from blond to brown as they age.

 

You missed the ones who were born brown haired and stayed brown haired. We have no examples in the story of children having one color of skin, hair, or eyes, at birth and another as adults. Not one.

No, but I'd argue that he's not a Targaryen and we're talking about Targaryen children here. 

The last does not naturally follow from the first three. 

However, moving on from that, since the issue can't possibly be resolved with TWOW if not ADOS, how about this: if Doran's plan all along was to put his own son Quentyn on the Iron Throne, then why did he betroth Arianne to Viserys? What of his explanation that Arianne wasn't going to follow him on the throne of Dorne because she was going to be queen of all Westeros.

18 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

I can dig up pictures of myself at age 5.  I was quite blond.  I'm brown now.  Maybe my case is rare (though I doubt it).  But from my own personal example I find it hard to take seriously your 6-month-cutoff rule for changes in hair color.  

So basically, you're arguing that its a huge stretch for a person with a Dornish mom to grow up looking Dornish, just because as a little child, he was less dark than his sister.  Sorry.  That's not a huge stretch at all.

We have (uncertain) evidence that Aegon may have survived.  But as to Young Griff, we have (uncertain) evidence he may be a fake.  It is not irrational to look for another character that may be Baby Aegon.   And when you do, there's really only one option for a baby swap -- not to mention method, motive, and opportunity, all laid out carefully in the course of otherwise-pointless background details.

If you look at Targaryen children had with non-Targaryen parents (who are also not of Valyrian descent) the rule is that the firstborn takes after the mother and all the others get the Targ looks. The only exceptions to this rule are cases where the paternity of the children is in doubt (such as Rhaenyra's first three sons). The forum user who came up with this actually had a chance to speak with GRRM about it and his response was "You've been paying attention." 

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44 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

I can dig up pictures of myself at age 5.  I was quite blond.  I'm brown now.  Maybe my case is rare (though I doubt it).  But from my own personal example I find it hard to take seriously your 6-month-cutoff rule for changes in hair color.  

So basically, you're arguing that its a huge stretch for a person with a Dornish mom to grow up looking Dornish, just because as a little child, he was less dark than his sister.  Sorry.  That's not a huge stretch at all.

We have (uncertain) evidence that Aegon may have survived.  But as to Young Griff, we have (uncertain) evidence he may be a fake.  It is not irrational to look for another character that may be Baby Aegon.   And when you do, there's really only one option for a baby swap -- not to mention method, motive, and opportunity, all laid out carefully in the course of otherwise-pointless background details.

Did you also have blue eyes at age 5 that turned brown? Because that I would not believe at all. :P 

OK, forgetting the hair and eye color changing. Your argument that there is only one option for a baby swap makes zero sense. Aegon could be real (I doubt it), Illyrio's son (by far the most likely answer), or even just a random baby with Valyrian looks, a pisswater prince if you will.

And the background details that you are referring to are absolutely not pointless even if you are wrong (which I think is quite likely).

And maybe you could convince me with evidence, but so far you have only presented speculation. Could Quentyn be Aegon. It's possible. Could Pretty Meris be Ashara Dayne. Just as possible. But I don't see much evidence for either one.

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42 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

I can dig up pictures of myself at age 5.  I was quite blond.  I'm brown now.  Maybe my case is rare (though I doubt it).  But from my own personal example I find it hard to take seriously your 6-month-cutoff rule for changes in hair color.  

"Quite blond" meaning?

Blonde hair can indeed turn brown with age but I haven't heard about silvery blonde going that way. 

Plus, as others have mentioned, we don't have a single GRRMth example of such a change.

 

42 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

So basically, you're arguing that its a huge stretch for a person with a Dornish mom to grow up looking Dornish, just because as a little child, he was less dark than his sister.  Sorry.  That's not a huge stretch at all.

He was not "less dark". She looked Dornish, he looked Targaryen. That's a completely different look, not just "less dark.

 

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5 hours ago, Armand Gargalen said:

But the "Aegon is real Theory", in my opinion, has a serious flaw. Varys, and even more so Illyrio, lack motivation involving themselves in the plan, at least with the information we currently have.

 

This is a flaw with your imagination, not the "theory".

Without a stated motivation (or even with one, since they're often false) any plausible guess works until proven incorrect.

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5 hours ago, Armand Gargalen said:

I am anticipating the time when Dany is ready to set sail for Westeros only to hear the son of her brother has already taken the Iron Throne. She has then to decide what to do, and I am pretty sure some people around her will start talking about mummer´s dragons, the Undying prophecies and those Blackfyre connections. I am also quite confident she will eventually say something along the lines of: "F him off, I am the True Dragon". This would be really ironic i we, as the readers, were definitely told Aegon is the real deal.

Also, if you subscribe, as I do, to the "Prophecy is bogus" theory, it would fit nicely with the "sending false visions... all for the end of turning brother against sister" (Dying of the Light). 

 

But the "Aegon is real Theory", in my opinion, has a serious flaw. Varys, and even more so Illyrio, lack motivation involving themselves in the plan, at least with the information we currently have. I have to admit that the "Brigtfyre Theory" addresses this issue really well.

 

There is a debt of affection and a contract writ in blood. The theory depends on Varys and/or Illyrio being strongly connected, most likely descended from, the Blackfyre. This is supported by suggestions in the text that Varys has a drop of dragonblood and that Illyrio is Aegon's father, or at least that he raised the wee dragonlet before sending him off to foster with Jon Connington. 

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1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

"Quite blond" meaning?

Blonde hair can indeed turn brown with age but I haven't heard about silvery blonde going that way. 

Plus, as others have mentioned, we don't have a single GRRMth example of such a change.

Exactly, and this is, in itself, a clue. Since, you know, Martin is writing a story with several mysteries. He puts the clues/hints/foreshadowing in there, and we may get it or not. But to set it all up in a certain manner, only to have the one exception that is also the big reveal of the mystery? I think not. 

@Lew Theobald, here's the thread by @The Fattest Leech that was mentioned by @Lady Blizzardborn a few posts up. If you're interested, it's a great read w/ lots of great posts. 

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

He was not "less dark". She looked Dornish, he looked Targaryen. That's a completely different look, not just "less dark.

 

This. There's a ginormous difference between a blonde human baby that may turn brown later on and a silver-haired purple-eyed fantasy character. 

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5 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

Oh, come off it.  GRRM gave a politely-noncommittal answer where he praised the questioner for hard work.  So this becomes the basis for a long string of posts possibly based on a house of cards.   Yes, you COULD be on to something.  But you just can't disprove another person's theories and guesses by pointing out that they are based on different assumptions than your own.

If there is, as you suppose, a hard rule that later-born children always have Targ looks, it has yet to be proven.  I for one don't believe it; because it is unrealistic and makes no sense.  I suspect I could find an exception if I looked hard enough, but it's really not worth the effort.

GRRM never said that Baby Aegon was "silver haired" or "purple eyed".  It's not an unreasonable assumption for your own theories, but it is not evidence against a theory that is willing to consider different assumptions.

Oh crap. So you are telling me more than half the posts this site are pointless? 

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9 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

Oh, come off it.  GRRM gave a politely-noncommittal answer where he praised the questioner for hard work.  So this becomes the basis for a long string of posts possibly based on a house of cards.   Yes, you COULD be on to something.  But you just can't disprove another person's theories and guesses by pointing out that they are based on different assumptions than your own.

If there is, as you suppose, a hard rule that later-born children always have Targ looks, it has yet to be proven.  I for one don't believe it; because it is unrealistic and makes no sense.  I suspect I could find an exception if I looked hard enough, but it's really not worth the effort.

GRRM never said that Baby Aegon was "silver haired" or "purple eyed".  It's not an unreasonable assumption for your own theories, but it is not evidence against a theory that is willing to consider different assumptions.

Know what? The main problem w/ trying to exchange ideas w/ you is not so much the far-fetched and unlikely stuff you come up with, but rather your attitude. You lack a sense of humour, but worse, you're uncivil when there's really no need to be. 

The thread I linked is not mine, and I, naively, thought you might be interested in reading interesting posts about (in part) the subject of this thread, both defending the OP's idea and arguing against it. I should have known better... 

And for once you are correct, Martin never said baby Aegon had silver hair and purple eyes. However, he did say he looked Targaryen, which translates as silver-haired and had purple/indigo/lilac eyes (read "fancy fantasy eye colour"). We know there are loads of Targs who don't have the "Targaryen look", and when the author uses Targ look descriptively for a character, we know some of us know exactly what he means. 

 

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26 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

Oh, come off it.  GRRM gave a politely-noncommittal answer where he praised the questioner for hard work.

I assure you, he was not giving me a "pat in the head". We had actual discussion about this, not in passing, but at an hour long table discussion. He took my note card because he kept throwing names at me and I always had an answer. What I reported were exactly his words, but there were a lot more to them that I have, but did not write in that Balticon report. The same when I asked about me and Bloodraven, and Jon and Val. 

 

Quote

If there is, as you suppose, a hard rule that later-born children always have Targ looks, it has yet to be proven.  I for one don't believe it; because it is unrealistic and makes no sense.  I suspect I could find an exception if I looked hard enough, but it's really not worth the effort.

First, I don't think you understand the hypothesis very well because of the first statement here. 

Feel free to look for exceptions. I found a few and the reason for them. It is spelled out in the hypothesis and George did say "yes" to the fact that the two exceptions have an identity crisis thing going on. 

If you find an exception that is not already discussed, please let me know :cheers:

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Quote

And for once you are correct, Martin never said baby Aegon had silver hair and purple eyes. However, he did say he looked Targaryen, which translates as silver-haired and had purple/indigo/lilac eyes (read "fancy fantasy eye colour"). We know there are loads of Targs who don't have the "Targaryen look", and when the author uses Targ look descriptively for a character, we know some of us know exactly what he means. 

 

@kissdbyfire (sorry, quoter hates me)

Correct. The simplified genetic code that also fits fantasy. 

Brienne knows Gendry is a Baratheon because of his looks. 

Jon is identified by random strangers as being a Stark because he has the "Stark look".  

Targaryens all over Planetos have the Targaryens/Valyrian look, which is fair skin, silver to silver-gold hair, and shades of purple eyes. 

Not rocket science <--- George only uses that for his 1,000 Worlds series :lmao:

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3 hours ago, Lew Theobald said:

Did Aegon have blue eyes at 18 months?  Where do you get that from?  

No, my eyes did not turn from blue to brown, but they have turned a darker blue.  There are not many babies with purple eyes, but it seems to me that purple-to-brown is less of a shift than blue to brown.  Not that Aegon's eyes are ever said to have been purple either, so who cares anyway.

Sorry, but I'm not particularly interested in "convincing you with evidence".  I'm sure it's beyond my power.  I'm just putting forth my guess as to the identify of (f)Aegon.  I can't "prove" it, any more than you can prove he is the son of Illyrio Mopatis, or whatever your guess/theory happens to be.

How did a "give your guess" thread, turn into this hostile "prove it" nonsense?   Seems to me that if I were to give a fuller elucidation of the theory, this would not be quite the right place for it.

LOL I don't think I was being hostile. In fact, I was specifically making an extra effort to be diplomatic, and then you said "Come on, don't be shy.  Say what you really think.  It will only make it all the more fun for me when you find out I was right." So I proceeded to tell you what I really think... as you requested. :P I know you are relatively new to the forum, but generally speaking if you are going to state a new theory out of left field, so to speak, it is helpful to summarize at least a couple key pieces of evidence that led you to the conclusion in the first place. That would be perfectly appropriate in this thread. I am not asking for proof, or 100% of the evidence, just a few bullet points would be nice. A couple pieces of evidence other than "it's possible" would be helpful for the sake of discussion. OK, Doran wants his son to be on the Iron Throne. That's a good point to make. But it is thoroughly unconvincing without other points to back it up.

Did Aegon have blue eyes at 18 months? I certainly hope so for the sake of fAegon. He was a prince, and a number of people would have seen him as a baby and made note of his Targaryen features. If baby Aegon had brown eyes, then trying to pass off fAegon as real could be super risky. But I suppose it is technically possible for Aegon to have been born with Targaryen features that very quickly went to Dornish, but everyone who saw baby Aegon is dead and GRRM was being super deceptive with that SSM saying that Aegon looked Targaryen.

I am sure that convincing me with evidence is not beyond your power, if the evidence is actually there. Perhaps I wouldn't subscribe to your theory, but I might give it a much higher probability of being correct. Because right now I give it like a 0.3% chance. I have changed my mind on almost every theory I originally subscribed to because the evidence convinced me otherwise. Like... I used to think Aegon was totally legit (Rhaegar's son), and now I don't.

I can't prove that Aegon is Illyrio's son, but I can give you pieces of evidence. Here's a few off the top of my head:

  • Illyrio claimed to Tyrion that he had helped out Viserys in the hopes of being named Master of Coin. This explanation seems a bit lacking. Illyrio is already super rich and has all the luxuries he could possibly want. Why does he want to be Master of Coin in Westeros?
  • Illyrio had a wife Serra who died in a plague. It is definitely possible that they had a child/children. In which case, where could Illyrio's children be?
  • Illyrio claims to have a contract with the GC "writ in blood". Since the very existence of the GC is directly linked to the Blackfyre rebellions, it would make sense if Illyrio is a Blackfyre. But obviously it is Aegon, not Illyrio, who they are trying to put on the IT, so it would make sense if Aegon is Illyrio's son.
  • There is a statue in Illyrio's manse surrounded by blackberry trees. Illyrio claims it is of himself (while young), which is a bit odd, because he obviously didn't have the statue made until he was rich, old, and fat. It may actually be a contemporary statue of Aegon, his son.
  • Jorah gave Dany a stack of old Westerosi children's books for a wedding gift. This seems intended to manipulate Dany's feelings (into supporting a Westeros invasion with Drogo) and was probably actually from Illyrio, just like the servants given to her by Viserys. But oddly, the books are old. Did Jorah, or Illyrio, take a trip to the used book store in Pentos and buy some children's stories as a gift? Probably not. It is more likely that these books belonged to young Aegon, who probably lived at Illyrio's manse when he was a child.
  • Illyrio seemed super sad when he was not provided the opportunity to speak to Aegon in ADWD, hinting at some deep emotional attachment. Aegon being his son would explain this.

See, like that! :P 

Just a few basic details from the story to support your claim. It takes 2 seconds... if you actually have evidence to back up your theory, which right now I honestly doubt because you keep refusing to provide any. ;) 

EDIT: Here, I will even get you started by inferring things you may already think. Doran lies all the time, and his story about his wife is kind of illogical. He may be hiding something important. Septa Lemore has given birth. Is her child someone important? It would make sense if she was actually raising her child. Yandry and Ysilla are Orphans of the Greenblood, and the Orphans are generally on super good terms with Doran.

So there, some evidence supporting your theory that I still am unconvinced by. If you have other evidence beyond those points I would sincerely be interested in reading it. :D 

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4 hours ago, Kienn said:

This is a flaw with your imagination, not the "theory".

Without a stated motivation (or even with one, since they're often false) any plausible guess works until proven incorrect.

It might as well be. Actually, as I said, I would like it more if Aegon was real, so I am hoping for future clues regarding Varys in the next books. 

And just so I can get informed,can you point me to a thread with strong support for the Aegon is Real Theory. I would love to be seduced-

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10 hours ago, Armand Gargalen said:

I am anticipating the time when Dany is ready to set sail for Westeros only to hear the son of her brother has already taken the Iron Throne. She has then to decide what to do, and I am pretty sure some people around her will start talking about mummer´s dragons, the Undying prophecies and those Blackfyre connections. I am also quite confident she will eventually say something along the lines of: "F him off, I am the True Dragon". This would be really ironic i we, as the readers, were definitely told Aegon is the real deal.

Also, if you subscribe, as I do, to the "Prophecy is bogus" theory, it would fit nicely with the "sending false visions... all for the end of turning brother against sister" (Dying of the Light). 

 

But the "Aegon is real Theory", in my opinion, has a serious flaw. Varys, and even more so Illyrio, lack motivation involving themselves in the plan, at least with the information we currently have. I have to admit that the "Brigtfyre Theory" addresses this issue really well.

 

First, Dany is unlikely to just blow off Aegon since she saw him in a vision at the HotU. The belief that Dany took away from that vision was that somewhere there were two men she could trust unconditionally, if she could only find them. Therefore, she won't really question Aegon still being alive. Most people's feeling that Aegon will be treated with suspicion by Dany is really only their own suspicions.

Second, Varys and Illyrio are probably working off the idea that Aegon is the prophesied Azor Ahai. Most readers forget that Varys and Illyrio are Essosi and have a different belief system than those from Westeros.

Brightfyre is the probably the worst of the theories.

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5 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

There is a debt of affection and a contract writ in blood. The theory depends on Varys and/or Illyrio being strongly connected, most likely descended from, the Blackfyre. This is supported by suggestions in the text that Varys has a drop of dragonblood and that Illyrio is Aegon's father, or at least that he raised the wee dragonlet before sending him off to foster with Jon Connington. 

And why does no one think that Varys making a poverty stricken bravo into one of the wealthiest and most powerful men in the known world a reason for helping Varys out on this project? I don't understand why so many people just blow this off.

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29 minutes ago, bent branch said:

First, Dany is unlikely to just blow off Aegon since she saw him in a vision at the HotU. The belief that Dany took away from that vision was that somewhere there were two men she could trust unconditionally, if she could only find them. Therefore, she won't really question Aegon still being alive. Most people's feeling that Aegon will be treated with suspicion by Dany is really only their own suspicions.

Second, Varys and Illyrio are probably working off the idea that Aegon is the prophesied Azor Ahai. Most readers forget that Varys and Illyrio are Essosi and have a different belief system than those from Westeros.

Brightfyre is the probably the worst of the theories.

I agree with your first paragraph. I think Daenerys will come to Aegon's aid as he is hard pressed just as Tyrion predicted she would. 

Why do you think Illyrio and Varys think that Aegon is Azor Ahai? 

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