Jojen Dayne-Reed

(f)Aegon consensus ?

80 posts in this topic

3 hours ago, Jojen Dayne-Reed said:

Quick question guys.  Is there a consensus on (f)Aegon.  From my time on this forum I had thought the majority opinion was that R+L=J and that Aegon is Illyrio's son and Vary's nephew and a Brightflame/Blackfire.  

But I just read a sight that referred to him as R&L's son definitively.  Is this still an up in the air thing? Did I miss a change of opinion or was it more divided than I thought?

 

There is no consensus. Between 40-50% of the fandom believe he's a Blackfyre, and usually also Illyrio's son. Included in that is a subset who believe that he is also a Brightflame descendant. This is usually called Brightfyre theory. Good theory too.

Then we have the rest of the people. Some believe he is genuine. Some think he is Jon's twin. Some think he is Rhaegar and Lyanna's and that Jon is actually Ned's son with Ashara Dayne (they apparently are unacquainted with the timeline*). Some think he's a random kid from Flea Bottom, aka the Pisswater Prince.

And there are those like me who think he's either real or a Blackfyre but don't much care which and lean toward real because the drama potential is actually much higher if he's Rhaegar and Elia's son (and because honestly he makes a better smokescreen for a Blackfyre than an actual Blackfyre...who wants a pretender from an exiled line who doesn't even know he's a pretender from an exiled line?).

 

*the timeline comment is about Jon's parentage, not Aegon's, but I've found that those who think R+L=A and don't include a twin usually also think N+A=J.

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17 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I think your theory is technically possible but extremely unlikely due to lack of hints that Doran and Varys are working together, and the non-lack of hints that they are rivals.

Also, why is Illyrio helping them if Aegon is not his son?

The real flaw in the plan is that it requires that the real Aegon looks like a Martell despite the fact that the author is on record as saying he took after Rhaegar in appearance. Rhaenys looked like Elia, Aegon looked like Rhaegar. It's in an SSM. 

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19 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Also, why is Illyrio helping them if Aegon is not his son?

I'm not sure.  But it takes a lot of people to mount an invasion.  They all have their reasons.  But surely Aegon can't be everyone's son.  That can't be the ONLY reason anyone gets involved.

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14 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

The real flaw in the plan is that it requires that the real Aegon looks like a Martell despite the fact that the author is on record as saying he took after Rhaegar in appearance. Rhaenys looked like Elia, Aegon looked like Rhaegar. It's in an SSM. 

Aegon looked "like a Targaryen" when a baby.  Specifically, he had fair hair.  But things change, as babies age.  In particular, colors often darken (eyes, hair, skin).    Happens all the time.   The world is full of brown-haired adults that were once blond babies.

Edited by Lew Theobald

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4 hours ago, Jojen Dayne-Reed said:

Quick question guys.  Is there a consensus on (f)Aegon.  From my time on this forum I had thought the majority opinion was that R+L=J and that Aegon is Illyrio's son and Vary's nephew and a Brightflame/Blackfire.  

But I just read a sight that referred to him as R&L's son definitively.  Is this still an up in the air thing? Did I miss a change of opinion or was it more divided than I thought?

 

In surveys that have been done, the agreement R+L=J is about 98%. That actually is about as much of a consensus as you're likely to get on anything in these forums.

When it comes to Aegon, it is more like 50/50. Of those who think Aegon is fake, only a portion buy into the Brightflame/Blackfire theory. The reason why you may have come to the impression that more people believe in these things comes down to the answer 40 Thousand Skeletons gave for the reason people stop talking about the fact they don't believe R+L=J. When you try to point out the flaws in the Aegon is fake theories, those who believe that become quite irrational. Most people don't even try to engage in discussion about those ideas anymore.

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1 hour ago, Lew Theobald said:

Aegon looked "like a Targaryen" when a baby.  Specifically, he had fair hair.  But things change, as babies age.  In particular, colors often darken (eyes, hair, skin).    Happens all the time.   The world is full of brown-haired adults that were once blond babies.

They don't change for Targaryen babies. Real world genetics do not apply in a series where you have people with dragonblood. 

I just finished reading The Rogue Prince. All of Rhaenyra's children were born with the looks they kept their whole lives. The older boys were all born with brown hair, her sons with Daemon both born with silver hair and purple eyes. Those are the looks they kept. Same thing with Alicent's children, which was why a lot of people claimed Rhaenyra's older boys were fathered by Harwin Strong. Nobody's hair changes colors in this storyworld short of the natural aging process*, nor does anyone's eyes. And you may have noticed from Dany's chapters that Targaryens don't tan.

GRRM is not a geneticist and he's writing a fantasy series, not a scientific dissertation.

*I forgot about Theon but again it's an accelerated aging process brought on by extreme stress 

Edited by Lady Blizzardborn

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3 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Oh man, you missed the release of winds where the author cleared everything up for all of us. I don't want to spoil it for you so you will just have to read the book 

:lol:

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2 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

The real flaw in the plan is that it requires that the real Aegon looks like a Martell despite the fact that the author is on record as saying he took after Rhaegar in appearance. Rhaenys looked like Elia, Aegon looked like Rhaegar. It's in an SSM. 

@Lew Theobald

I was unaware of that SSM. I think that definitely foils your theory Lew Theobald. :D

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Definitely no consensus...

 

Who is Aegon VI/Young Griff?

 
 
The son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Elia Martell 1211   24.6%
A Blackfyre descendant 2545   51.7%
A Brightflame descendant 28     0.6%
A Blackfyre-Brightflame (combined Targ lines) descendant 302   6.1%
A random boy from Essos with Valyrian looks 368   7.5%
Don't Know/No Opinion 405    8.2%
Other 68   1.4%

 

From a large (5000 samples) reddit poll in 2015...

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1faJx4pvYnKHZu8Wdw9LKEHSuuf4IVnOrVRukWwv1sA4/viewanalytics#

There's a dozen different versions of the fake Aegon theory and most people supporting any version like to make posts as if the idea that he's fake is as certain/popular as R+L=J (95% in this poll) when it's actually quite significantly less.

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Just a side note for R+L=fA:

if this theory were true, it would mean that Ned's promise to Lyanna was to send her son away and never, ever, pay him a single thought, apparently.

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13 hours ago, Jojen Dayne-Reed said:

Quick question guys.  Is there a consensus on (f)Aegon.  From my time on this forum I had thought the majority opinion was that R+L=J and that Aegon is Illyrio's son and Vary's nephew and a Brightflame/Blackfire.  

But I just read a sight that referred to him as R&L's son definitively.  Is this still an up in the air thing? Did I miss a change of opinion or was it more divided than I thought?

 

He is Rhaegar and Lyannas son.

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10 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

And there are those like me who think he's either real or a Blackfyre but don't much care which and lean toward real because the drama potential is actually much higher if he's Rhaegar and Elia's son (and because honestly he makes a better smokescreen for a Blackfyre than an actual Blackfyre...who wants a pretender from an exiled line who doesn't even know he's a pretender from an exiled line?).

 

 

I am anticipating the time when Dany is ready to set sail for Westeros only to hear the son of her brother has already taken the Iron Throne. She has then to decide what to do, and I am pretty sure some people around her will start talking about mummer´s dragons, the Undying prophecies and those Blackfyre connections. I am also quite confident she will eventually say something along the lines of: "F him off, I am the True Dragon". This would be really ironic i we, as the readers, were definitely told Aegon is the real deal.

Also, if you subscribe, as I do, to the "Prophecy is bogus" theory, it would fit nicely with the "sending false visions... all for the end of turning brother against sister" (Dying of the Light). 

 

But the "Aegon is real Theory", in my opinion, has a serious flaw. Varys, and even more so Illyrio, lack motivation involving themselves in the plan, at least with the information we currently have. I have to admit that the "Brigtfyre Theory" addresses this issue really well.

 

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14 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

They don't change for Targaryen babies. Real world genetics do not apply in a series where you have people with dragonblood. 

I just finished reading The Rogue Prince. All of Rhaenyra's children were born with the looks they kept their whole lives. The older boys were all born with brown hair, her sons with Daemon both born with silver hair and purple eyes. Those are the looks they kept. Same thing with Alicent's children, which was why a lot of people claimed Rhaenyra's older boys were fathered by Harwin Strong. Nobody's hair changes colors in this storyworld short of the natural aging process*, nor does anyone's eyes. And you may have noticed from Dany's chapters that Targaryens don't tan.

GRRM is not a geneticist and he's writing a fantasy series, not a scientific dissertation.

*I forgot about Theon but again it's an accelerated aging process brought on by extreme stress 

You say real world genetics does not apply?  Sure.  In that case GRRM can do what he likes, and Aegon VI can indeed grow darker as he ages, as many real world children do, and which is common-knowledge to EVERYONE.  No scientific dissertation required.

So what you are doing is taking counterexamples of blond adults who were also blond children.  Yeah, you're right.  Any adult who is a natural blond as an adult, will also have been a blond child (usually, an even-lighter blond).  But you cannot reverse the equation.  All x may be y; but that does not mean all y is x.  

The fact remains that many blond babies (in fact, I suspect probably most of them) turn into brown-haired adults.  And sure, if you come from a family of blond adults (like many Targs), this is less likely to happen than for the average blond baby.  But Aegon's heritage has no such guaranty.  Aegon's mother is dark; as apparently is Aegon's older sister (if that's what "looks like a Martell" means).  

And GRRM can use this fact to fake out the reader, so they don't recognize Baby Aegon when he shows up in the story.  And, IMHO, that is playing perfectly fair; even if he does not shower you with 1000 in-world examples of blond babies that turned into brown-haired adults.  

But in fact, Shaggydog's fur did darken as he aged.  I suppose you'll argue that does not count 'cause he's a wolf.  

Doesn't matter.  If some Targs can have black hair, and some Targs can be albinos, and some Targs can have mismatched colored eyes, then some Targs can darken from blond to brown as they age.

 

 

Edited by Lew Theobald

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24 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

You say real world genetics does not apply?  Sure.  In that case GRRM can do what he likes, and Aegon VI can indeed grow darker as he ages, as many real world children do, and which is common-knowledge to EVERYONE.  No scientific dissertation required.

So what you are doing is taking counterexamples of blond adults who were also blond children.  Yeah, you're right.  Any adult who is a natural blond as an adult, will also have been a blond child (usually, an even-lighter blond).  But you cannot reverse the equation.  All x may be y; but that does not mean all y is x.  

The fact remains that many blond babies (in fact, I suspect probably most of them) turn into brown-haired adults.  And sure, if you come from a family of blond adults (like many Targs), this is less likely to happen than for the average blond baby.  But Aegon's heritage has no such guaranty.  Aegon's mother is dark; as apparently is Aegon's older sister (if that's what "looks like a Martell" means).  

And GRRM can use this fact to fake out the reader, so they don't recognize Baby Aegon when he shows up in the story.  And, IMHO, that is playing perfectly fair; even if he does not shower you with 1000 in-world examples of blond babies that turned into brown-haired adults.  

But in fact, Shaggydog's fur did darken as he aged.  I suppose you'll argue that does not count 'cause he's a wolf.  

Doesn't matter.  If some Targs can have black hair, and some Targs can be albinos, and some Targs can have mismatched colored eyes, then some Targs can darken from blond to brown as they age.

Obviously GRRM can do what he wants with genetics, but in the real world, babies' eye color and hair color is basically set by about 6 months old. Aegon was about 18 months old when he was killed/swapped. Again, your theory is technically possible as far as I can tell, but I think that would be a huge stretch to say that an 18 month old Targ-looking Aegon grew up to look Dornish.

I am also curious, why are so confident that this baby swap occurred? I get that it is sort of a "neat and tidy" explanation, and that the pieces sort of "fit" but again I don't see any evidence for Varys and Doran working together. And I am completely baffled as to why Doran has just sent Arianne to meet with Aegon and not tell her it is her brother, and then at the same time sabotage their potential alliance by sending Daemon Sand with her. All of the clues point to Doran not supporting Aegon in TWOW. The entire Doran plot really just doesn't make sense with your theory.

Also, is this a theory you came up with, or is it from somewhere else originally?

Edited by 40 Thousand Skeletons

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4 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Obviously GRRM can do what he wants with genetics, but in the real world, babies' eye color and hair color is basically set by about 6 months old. Aegon was about 18 months old when he was killed/swapped. Again, your theory is technically possible as far as I can tell, but I that would be a huge stretch to say that an 18 month old Targ-looking Aegon grew up to look Dornish.

I can dig up pictures of myself at age 5.  I was quite blond.  I'm brown now.  Maybe my case is rare (though I doubt it).  But from my own personal example I find it hard to take seriously your 6-month-cutoff rule for changes in hair color.  

So basically, you're arguing that its a huge stretch for a person with a Dornish mom to grow up looking Dornish, just because as a little child, he was less dark than his sister.  Sorry.  That's not a huge stretch at all.

We have (uncertain) evidence that Aegon may have survived.  But as to Young Griff, we have (uncertain) evidence he may be a fake.  It is not irrational to look for another character that may be Baby Aegon.   And when you do, there's really only one option for a baby swap -- not to mention method, motive, and opportunity, all laid out carefully in the course of otherwise-pointless background details.

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5 hours ago, Armand Gargalen said:

<snip

Also, if you subscribe, as I do, to the "Prophecy is bogus" theory, it would fit nicely with the "sending false visions... all for the end of turning brother against sister" (Dying of the Light). 

 

But the "Aegon is real Theory", in my opinion, has a serious flaw. Varys, and even more so Illyrio, lack motivation involving themselves in the plan, at least with the information we currently have. I have to admit that the "Brigtfyre Theory" addresses this issue really well.

 

I'm one of those people who thinks authors can do things differently in different works, so what he's done in previous books doesn't necessarily convince me he'll do exactly the same in these. Besides which he already has Mel misreading her visions, and he won't want to do too much of that.

I also lean toward Varys being a Brightflame descendant, and as such also a Targaryen loyalist. Illyrio is in it for money and power. Having supported Aegon's rise to power, he will have a major ally to help him advance in Pentos beyond what he might otherwise have been able to do, and get all kinds of lucrative trade deals with Westeros. He's not just a cheesemonger. He deals in all kinds of things, including dragonbone. This is a way for him to cash in big time on his friendship with Varys. Slightly different game than the one they used to play, but with a much bigger payout too.

49 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

You say real world genetics does not apply?  Sure.  In that case GRRM can do what he likes, and Aegon VI can indeed grow darker as he ages, as many real world children do, and which is common-knowledge to EVERYONE.  No scientific dissertation required.

So what you are doing is taking counterexamples of blond adults who were also blond children.  Yeah, you're right.  Any adult who is a natural blond as an adult, will also have been a blond child (usually, an even-lighter blond).  But you cannot reverse the equation.  All x may be y; but that does not mean all y is x.  

The fact remains that many blond babies (in fact, I suspect probably most of them) turn into brown-haired adults.  And sure, if you come from a family of blond adults (like many Targs), this is less likely to happen than for the average blond baby.  But Aegon's heritage has no such guaranty.  Aegon's mother is dark; as apparently is Aegon's older sister (if that's what "looks like a Martell" means).  

And GRRM can use this fact to fake out the reader, so they don't recognize Baby Aegon when he shows up in the story.  And, IMHO, that is playing perfectly fair; even if he does not shower you with 1000 in-world examples of blond babies that turned into brown-haired adults.  

But in fact, Shaggydog's fur did darken as he aged.  I suppose you'll argue that does not count 'cause he's a wolf.  

Doesn't matter.  If some Targs can have black hair, and some Targs can be albinos, and some Targs can have mismatched colored eyes, then some Targs can darken from blond to brown as they age.

 

You missed the ones who were born brown haired and stayed brown haired. We have no examples in the story of children having one color of skin, hair, or eyes, at birth and another as adults. Not one.

No, but I'd argue that he's not a Targaryen and we're talking about Targaryen children here. 

The last does not naturally follow from the first three. 

However, moving on from that, since the issue can't possibly be resolved with TWOW if not ADOS, how about this: if Doran's plan all along was to put his own son Quentyn on the Iron Throne, then why did he betroth Arianne to Viserys? What of his explanation that Arianne wasn't going to follow him on the throne of Dorne because she was going to be queen of all Westeros.

18 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

I can dig up pictures of myself at age 5.  I was quite blond.  I'm brown now.  Maybe my case is rare (though I doubt it).  But from my own personal example I find it hard to take seriously your 6-month-cutoff rule for changes in hair color.  

So basically, you're arguing that its a huge stretch for a person with a Dornish mom to grow up looking Dornish, just because as a little child, he was less dark than his sister.  Sorry.  That's not a huge stretch at all.

We have (uncertain) evidence that Aegon may have survived.  But as to Young Griff, we have (uncertain) evidence he may be a fake.  It is not irrational to look for another character that may be Baby Aegon.   And when you do, there's really only one option for a baby swap -- not to mention method, motive, and opportunity, all laid out carefully in the course of otherwise-pointless background details.

If you look at Targaryen children had with non-Targaryen parents (who are also not of Valyrian descent) the rule is that the firstborn takes after the mother and all the others get the Targ looks. The only exceptions to this rule are cases where the paternity of the children is in doubt (such as Rhaenyra's first three sons). The forum user who came up with this actually had a chance to speak with GRRM about it and his response was "You've been paying attention." 

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44 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

I can dig up pictures of myself at age 5.  I was quite blond.  I'm brown now.  Maybe my case is rare (though I doubt it).  But from my own personal example I find it hard to take seriously your 6-month-cutoff rule for changes in hair color.  

So basically, you're arguing that its a huge stretch for a person with a Dornish mom to grow up looking Dornish, just because as a little child, he was less dark than his sister.  Sorry.  That's not a huge stretch at all.

We have (uncertain) evidence that Aegon may have survived.  But as to Young Griff, we have (uncertain) evidence he may be a fake.  It is not irrational to look for another character that may be Baby Aegon.   And when you do, there's really only one option for a baby swap -- not to mention method, motive, and opportunity, all laid out carefully in the course of otherwise-pointless background details.

Did you also have blue eyes at age 5 that turned brown? Because that I would not believe at all. :P 

OK, forgetting the hair and eye color changing. Your argument that there is only one option for a baby swap makes zero sense. Aegon could be real (I doubt it), Illyrio's son (by far the most likely answer), or even just a random baby with Valyrian looks, a pisswater prince if you will.

And the background details that you are referring to are absolutely not pointless even if you are wrong (which I think is quite likely).

And maybe you could convince me with evidence, but so far you have only presented speculation. Could Quentyn be Aegon. It's possible. Could Pretty Meris be Ashara Dayne. Just as possible. But I don't see much evidence for either one.

Edited by 40 Thousand Skeletons

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42 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

I can dig up pictures of myself at age 5.  I was quite blond.  I'm brown now.  Maybe my case is rare (though I doubt it).  But from my own personal example I find it hard to take seriously your 6-month-cutoff rule for changes in hair color.  

"Quite blond" meaning?

Blonde hair can indeed turn brown with age but I haven't heard about silvery blonde going that way. 

Plus, as others have mentioned, we don't have a single GRRMth example of such a change.

 

42 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

So basically, you're arguing that its a huge stretch for a person with a Dornish mom to grow up looking Dornish, just because as a little child, he was less dark than his sister.  Sorry.  That's not a huge stretch at all.

He was not "less dark". She looked Dornish, he looked Targaryen. That's a completely different look, not just "less dark.

 

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5 hours ago, Armand Gargalen said:

But the "Aegon is real Theory", in my opinion, has a serious flaw. Varys, and even more so Illyrio, lack motivation involving themselves in the plan, at least with the information we currently have.

 

This is a flaw with your imagination, not the "theory".

Without a stated motivation (or even with one, since they're often false) any plausible guess works until proven incorrect.

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5 hours ago, Armand Gargalen said:

I am anticipating the time when Dany is ready to set sail for Westeros only to hear the son of her brother has already taken the Iron Throne. She has then to decide what to do, and I am pretty sure some people around her will start talking about mummer´s dragons, the Undying prophecies and those Blackfyre connections. I am also quite confident she will eventually say something along the lines of: "F him off, I am the True Dragon". This would be really ironic i we, as the readers, were definitely told Aegon is the real deal.

Also, if you subscribe, as I do, to the "Prophecy is bogus" theory, it would fit nicely with the "sending false visions... all for the end of turning brother against sister" (Dying of the Light). 

 

But the "Aegon is real Theory", in my opinion, has a serious flaw. Varys, and even more so Illyrio, lack motivation involving themselves in the plan, at least with the information we currently have. I have to admit that the "Brigtfyre Theory" addresses this issue really well.

 

There is a debt of affection and a contract writ in blood. The theory depends on Varys and/or Illyrio being strongly connected, most likely descended from, the Blackfyre. This is supported by suggestions in the text that Varys has a drop of dragonblood and that Illyrio is Aegon's father, or at least that he raised the wee dragonlet before sending him off to foster with Jon Connington. 

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