Jojen Dayne-Reed

(f)Aegon consensus ?

72 posts in this topic

24 minutes ago, bent branch said:

And why does no one think that Varys making a poverty stricken bravo into one of the wealthiest and most powerful men in the known world a reason for helping Varys out on this project? I don't understand why so many people just blow this off.

Good point. Illyrio owes him. I could see that being a contract written in blood too. As kids/youths they may well have sworn a blood oath.

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23 minutes ago, bent branch said:

And why does no one think that Varys making a poverty stricken bravo into one of the wealthiest and most powerful men in the known world a reason for helping Varys out on this project? I don't understand why so many people just blow this off.

I think that's the way a lot of the original Blackfyre theorists see it, actually. The Blackfyre theory that dominated this forum about four years ago assumed that Varys and Serra were descendants of Daemon Blackfyre, and Varys arranged for Illyrio to wed Serra. Those two had the noble lad Aegon, and Illyrio is paying the debt of affection he owes to the Blackfyres. Of course the basic concept works just as well if you believe that Varys truly is working toward a Targaryen restoration. (I prefer the idea that Illyrio is the descendant of Aegon.) I don't see any need to argue with you about it. I know you are really committed to the Targaryen restoration plot, and that's cool. 

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23 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

The real flaw in the plan is that it requires that the real Aegon looks like a Martell despite the fact that the author is on record as saying he took after Rhaegar in appearance. Rhaenys looked like Elia, Aegon looked like Rhaegar. It's in an SSM. 

That's not true. The Martells may not be phenotypes, but they can be carriers of a recessive gene. The first Daenerys Targaryen married the Prince of Dorne. And before that, Larra Rogare's Lyseni uncle married the Princess of Dorne.

I've checked whether a recessive partial albinism gene works out here:

 

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The consensus seems that half the fan base have head canons he is fake and half he is real. I doubt we shall ever know 

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1 hour ago, Lew Theobald said:

I don't see any particular need to prove anything, because I don't see any particular need to convince anybody.  

But since you seem so nice, here's a point or two:

- Quentyn "the frog" Martell has dreams of fire and blood.

- Mellario is a noblewoman from Norvos.  Norvos started as a colony of the Valyrian freehold, suggesting that some noblewomen of Norvos may have the Targ coloring.  But this would not be common knowledge because (in a curious detail from the World Book) Norvosi noblewomen always shave their heads and wear wigs.  Thus, if Young Griff is Mellario and Doran's son, he may be merely taking after his Norvoshi mom, rather than his Dornish dad.  This would make Baby Quentyn and Baby Aegon ideal for a swap, being roughly the same age, and both being of a Valyrian-Martell mix.

- Mellario is allegedly estranged from Doran.  Why?  Apparently because she is mad at him for sending Quentyn to the Yronwoods.  As a result, she spends most of her time in Essos, apparently separated from ALL her children, including Quentyn.  Does this make sense?  

- "Mellario" and "Lemore" is close to being the same name with the sounds rearranged.   Lemore is a mysterious character, who invites speculation as to her identity.  She has given birth in the past, as Tyrion observed.  And what would her interest in Young Griff be?  Might Young Griff not be her son?

- I've long been convinced by the theory that Quentyn is Alive (that he survived Rhaegal's attack in ADWD).  Not because I wanted him to be alive, but because the evidence of his death is so suggestive of a fakeout.  A major objection to the Quentyn is Alive theory is the rhetorical question "what is the point of Quentyn being alive?".   Here's a possible answer:  He is the real baby Aegon.  But I did not really want to open that whole can of worms, since I know the very idea of Quentyn being alive invites major outrage.

- I am not the first person to suspect that Quentyn "the frog" Martell is not the "real" Quentyn - in the sense of not actually being Doran's son.  There's an old theory about that with various reasons given.  But I am (to my knowledge) the first to make the Baby Aegon connection.

Now that took me a lot more than 2 seconds, and it's not a complete writeup either. Now I've probably opened a huge can of worms, against my better judgment.

Can of worms or no, you have thoroughly convinced me that you have substantial knowledge of the text and have thought things through, unlike a lot of other people. And I will be more inclined to pay attention to your theories in the future. ;) 

-Dreams of fire and blood do indeed tend to afflict Targaryens

-I doubt noblewomen of Norvos would have the Targ coloring. The Valyrian dragonriders generally tried to keep dragon riding genes in the family. Lys, by contrast, is full of people with dragon rider looks, because that was where the nobility went to hang out with prostitutes. However, it may be irrelevant to your theory because I think it is totally possible that a light-skinned woman from Norvos could have a Valyrian looking baby with Doran, who potentially has the right recessive genes via Daenerys (wife of Maron Martell).

-Mellario is a mystery, and I agree that the given explanation does not make much sense.

-Young Griff being Lemore's son would make sense.

-I agree that Quentyn is alive.

LOL there is definitely no need to convince anybody of your theories. I would estimate that 99% of people don't buy into my own grand theory. But if you want people to take you seriously, it's good to at least show that you are not just randomly pulling theories out of thin air, because a lot of people on the forum do that (no offense to anyone else reading this, I wasn't talking about you ;)).

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3 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

LOL I don't think I was being hostile. In fact, I was specifically making an extra effort to be diplomatic, and then you said "Come on, don't be shy.  Say what you really think.  It will only make it all the more fun for me when you find out I was right." So I proceeded to tell you what I really think... as you requested. :P I know you are relatively new to the forum, but generally speaking if you are going to state a new theory out of left field, so to speak, it is helpful to summarize at least a couple key pieces of evidence that led you to the conclusion in the first place. That would be perfectly appropriate in this thread. I am not asking for proof, or 100% of the evidence, just a few bullet points would be nice. A couple pieces of evidence other than "it's possible" would be helpful for the sake of discussion. OK, Doran wants his son to be on the Iron Throne. That's a good point to make. But it is thoroughly unconvincing without other points to back it up.

Did Aegon have blue eyes at 18 months? I certainly hope so for the sake of fAegon. He was a prince, and a number of people would have seen him as a baby and made note of his Targaryen features. If baby Aegon had brown eyes, then trying to pass off fAegon as real could be super risky. But I suppose it is technically possible for Aegon to have been born with Targaryen features that very quickly went to Dornish, but everyone who saw baby Aegon is dead and GRRM was being super deceptive with that SSM saying that Aegon looked Targaryen.

I am sure that convincing me with evidence is not beyond your power, if the evidence is actually there. Perhaps I wouldn't subscribe to your theory, but I might give it a much higher probability of being correct. Because right now I give it like a 0.3% chance. I have changed my mind on almost every theory I originally subscribed to because the evidence convinced me otherwise. Like... I used to think Aegon was totally legit (Rhaegar's son), and now I don't.

I can't prove that Aegon is Illyrio's son, but I can give you pieces of evidence. Here's a few off the top of my head:

  • Illyrio claimed to Tyrion that he had helped out Viserys in the hopes of being named Master of Coin. This explanation seems a bit lacking. Illyrio is already super rich and has all the luxuries he could possibly want. Why does he want to be Master of Coin in Westeros?
  • Illyrio had a wife Serra who died in a plague. It is definitely possible that they had a child/children. In which case, where could Illyrio's children be?
  • Illyrio claims to have a contract with the GC "writ in blood". Since the very existence of the GC is directly linked to the Blackfyre rebellions, it would make sense if Illyrio is a Blackfyre. But obviously it is Aegon, not Illyrio, who they are trying to put on the IT, so it would make sense if Aegon is Illyrio's son.
  • There is a statue in Illyrio's manse surrounded by blackberry trees. Illyrio claims it is of himself (while young), which is a bit odd, because he obviously didn't have the statue made until he was rich, old, and fat. It may actually be a contemporary statue of Aegon, his son.
  • Jorah gave Dany a stack of old Westerosi children's books for a wedding gift. This seems intended to manipulate Dany's feelings (into supporting a Westeros invasion with Drogo) and was probably actually from Illyrio, just like the servants given to her by Viserys. But oddly, the books are old. Did Jorah, or Illyrio, take a trip to the used book store in Pentos and buy some children's stories as a gift? Probably not. It is more likely that these books belonged to young Aegon, who probably lived at Illyrio's manse when he was a child.
  • Illyrio seemed super sad when he was not provided the opportunity to speak to Aegon in ADWD, hinting at some deep emotional attachment. Aegon being his son would explain this.

See, like that! :P 

Just a few basic details from the story to support your claim. It takes 2 seconds... if you actually have evidence to back up your theory, which right now I honestly doubt because you keep refusing to provide any. ;) 

EDIT: Here, I will even get you started by inferring things you may already think. Doran lies all the time, and his story about his wife is kind of illogical. He may be hiding something important. Septa Lemore has given birth. Is her child someone important? It would make sense if she was actually raising her child. Yandry and Ysilla are Orphans of the Greenblood, and the Orphans are generally on super good terms with Doran.

So there, some evidence supporting your theory that I still am unconvinced by. If you have other evidence beyond those points I would sincerely be interested in reading it. :D 

Illyrio only made that claim after Tyrion refused to believe that Illyrio was repaying debts of affection to Varys.

If Illyrio and Serra had a child together that child would be only about 15 years old at the oldest. It is more likely that child would be even younger.

Illyrio is indeed the descendant of Aegor Rivers and Calla Blackfyre. That doesn't automatically mean Aegon is his son.

The statue could be of Aegon. So what? We already know Illyrio and Aegon know each other.

The books could be Aegon's old books. So what? The books make it clear that Aegon lived with Illyrio when he was young. This is no secret. Tyrion knows that Aegon lived with Illyrio when young and still believes Aegon is Rhaegar's son.

The fact that Aegon lived with Illyrio when young would also make it possible for Illyrio to love Aegon. People do become fond of children that are not their own.

This is the reason I do not believe the theory. Every piece of "evidence" put forth has a simple counter answer.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I agree with your first paragraph. I think Daenerys will come to Aegon's aid as he is hard pressed just as Tyrion predicted she would. 

Why do you think Illyrio and Varys think that Aegon is Azor Ahai? 

Well, first let's look at who they are. Illyrio was a poor bravo who lived in Essos. Varys was a slave that lived in Essos. In every city on the continent of Essos, there is a red temple. Every night a red priest preaches on the streets. They preach about the "savior" that will come. What are the clues that Illyrio and Varys may be followers of R'hllorism? First is the fact that R'hllorism is the religion of the slaves and poor in Essos, which classes Illyrio and Varys come from. Illyrio uses phrases from the religion that make it clear he has a good understanding of the religion. With Varys, one can imagine that as a small boy, freshly castrated, and thrown out to die, he might have drawn near the night fires of the red priests and listened and hoped. To suggest that these men would have no knowledge of Azor Ahai is to argue that Italians have no idea who the pope is. As to why they might believe it to be Aegon is because according to the prophecies Aegon is one of the few people who it could actually be.

55 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I think that's the way a lot of the original Blackfyre theorists see it, actually. The Blackfyre theory that dominated this forum about four years ago assumed that Varys and Serra were descendants of Daemon Blackfyre, and Varys arranged for Illyrio to wed Serra. Those two had the noble lad Aegon, and Illyrio is paying the debt of affection he owes to the Blackfyres. Of course the basic concept works just as well if you believe that Varys truly is working toward a Targaryen restoration. (I prefer the idea that Illyrio is the descendant of Aegon.) I don't see any need to argue with you about it. I know you are really committed to the Targaryen restoration plot, and that's cool. 

You suggest that the reason I question the whole Aegon is fake is because people won't accept my "theory". How insulting! I do not respond to these theories to argue for my theory, but to point out the weaknesses of the theory presented. I am presenting other ways of looking at the "evidence". What I say is that if Aegon is needed to fulfill prophecy, then he will be Rhaegar's son. That is not same level of insistence as the Aegon is fake crowd. It would be nice if the proponents of this theory actually responded to the issues raised rather than suggesting the people questioning the theory are poor sports. It is this attitude that has made most people back off of trying to point out the problems with the theory and makes people have to ask if that lack of debate means there is a consensus.

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21 minutes ago, bent branch said:

Illyrio only made that claim after Tyrion refused to believe that Illyrio was repaying debts of affection to Varys.

If Illyrio and Serra had a child together that child would be only about 15 years old at the oldest. It is more likely that child would be even younger.

Illyrio is indeed the descendant of Aegor Rivers and Calla Blackfyre. That doesn't automatically mean Aegon is his son.

The statue could be of Aegon. So what? We already know Illyrio and Aegon know each other.

The books could be Aegon's old books. So what? The books make it clear that Aegon lived with Illyrio when he was young. This is no secret. Tyrion knows that Aegon lived with Illyrio when young and still believes Aegon is Rhaegar's son.

The fact that Aegon lived with Illyrio when young would also make it possible for Illyrio to love Aegon. People do become fond of children that are not their own.

This is the reason I do not believe the theory. Every piece of "evidence" put forth has a simple counter answer.

Well, first let's look at who they are. Illyrio was a poor bravo who lived in Essos. Varys was a slave that lived in Essos. In every city on the continent of Essos, there is a red temple. Every night a red priest preaches on the streets. They preach about the "savior" that will come. What are the clues that Illyrio and Varys may be followers of R'hllorism? First is the fact that R'hllorism is the religion of the slaves and poor in Essos, which classes Illyrio and Varys come from. Illyrio uses phrases from the religion that make it clear he has a good understanding of the religion. With Varys, one can imagine that as a small boy, freshly castrated, and thrown out to die, he might have drawn near the night fires of the red priests and listened and hoped. To suggest that these men would have no knowledge of Azor Ahai is to argue that Italians have no idea who the pope is. As to why they might believe it to be Aegon is because according to the prophecies Aegon is one of the few people who it could actually be.

You suggest that the reason I question the whole Aegon is fake is because people won't accept my "theory". How insulting! I do not respond to these theories to argue for my theory, but to point out the weaknesses of the theory presented. I am presenting other ways of looking at the "evidence". What I say is that if Aegon is needed to fulfill prophecy, then he will be Rhaegar's son. That is not same level of insistence as the Aegon is fake crowd. It would be nice if the proponents of this theory actually responded to the issues raised rather than suggesting the people questioning the theory are poor sports. It is this attitude that has made most people back off of trying to point out the problems with the theory and makes people have to ask if that lack of debate means there is a consensus.

I really meant no offense. I think I am right on this, so I approach my arguments from that perspective. But I recognize I could be wrong, and you might be right. 

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1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I really meant no offense. I think I am right on this, so I approach my arguments from that perspective. But I recognize I could be wrong, and you might be right. 

Okay, you meant no offense. However, this thread began with the question of whether there was consensus on this theory. The answer is obviously no. With such a question, it is natural that people put forward other theories that are out there. I just want to point that out. No hard feelings.

 

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8 hours ago, Lew Theobald said:

Yeah, I've eduated myself meanwhile, so you're right in this. However, the point still stands: such a change never happens in GRRMth. After all the fuss made about certain light or clothes subduing or bringing out eye colour, such a profound change - a gamechanger indeed - should, and would, have been telegraphed in some way. Yet, we're five books through, with none of the kind.

8 hours ago, Lew Theobald said:

Aegon is never said to be "silvery blond".  In any event, the real reason "silvery blond" (or "golden blond") children are not described as going dark, is because these phrases are poetic descriptions rarely used outside of fictional or poetic contexts.   Is silver blond lighter or darker than platinum blond?  Beats me.

You're putting alot of weight on a vague years old comment in an SSM.  You choose to read GRRM's comments as indicating they looked "completely different"; rather than merely different.

"Rhaenys looked more like a Martell, Aegon more a Targaryen."

This phrasing is relative, not absolute.

Well, we do at least know that rAegon's hair was "fair" (Kevan's epilogue), and the YG has the Targaryen colouring, in both hair and eyes. At the time of the Sack, Aegon was about a year old, plenty of people would know what he looked like, so YG's appearance apparently must fit what is known, or else he easily could be proved to be a fake.

 

4 hours ago, Lew Theobald said:

- Quentyn "the frog" Martell has dreams of fire and blood.

The Martells also have Targ ancestry, though

4 hours ago, Lew Theobald said:

- I've long been convinced by the theory that Quentyn is Alive (that he survived Rhaegal's attack in ADWD).  Not because I wanted him to be alive, but because the evidence of his death is so suggestive of a fakeout.

Could you elaborate, please? We know from Quentyn's own PoV that he was engulfed in flames, all of him burning, a mention of Archibald Yronwood's burned hands from extinguishing the flames and then holding the burned and scorched body, a description of Quentyn with terrible burns in his face (which, IMHO, would probably be fatal even with modern medicine), and then Barristan pondering what is to be done with the body. How does this suggest a fakeout?- Mind you, I'm not bashing you, I'm merely at a loss what might seem fishy here.

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2 hours ago, bent branch said:

Illyrio only made that claim after Tyrion refused to believe that Illyrio was repaying debts of affection to Varys.

If Illyrio and Serra had a child together that child would be only about 15 years old at the oldest. It is more likely that child would be even younger.

Illyrio is indeed the descendant of Aegor Rivers and Calla Blackfyre. That doesn't automatically mean Aegon is his son.

The statue could be of Aegon. So what? We already know Illyrio and Aegon know each other.

The books could be Aegon's old books. So what? The books make it clear that Aegon lived with Illyrio when he was young. This is no secret. Tyrion knows that Aegon lived with Illyrio when young and still believes Aegon is Rhaegar's son.

The fact that Aegon lived with Illyrio when young would also make it possible for Illyrio to love Aegon. People do become fond of children that are not their own.

This is the reason I do not believe the theory. Every piece of "evidence" put forth has a simple counter answer.

Well, those were just random points off the top of my head. There is certainly a lot more evidence for fAegon Blackfyre/Brightfyre. Sure, there are alternative answers to most points about every theory. But we each have to believe that something is the most likely explanation :P.

I am curious how you came to the conclusion that Illyrio and Serra's son would be 15 at the oldest. Not saying you are wrong, I just have no idea what that is based on.

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2 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Well, those were just random points off the top of my head. There is certainly a lot more evidence for fAegon Blackfyre/Brightfyre. Sure, there are alternative answers to most points about every theory. But we each have to believe that something is the most likely explanation :P.

I am curious how you came to the conclusion that Illyrio and Serra's son would be 15 at the oldest. Not saying you are wrong, I just have no idea what that is based on.

Illyrio was marrying his first wife at about the point Aegon would have to be conceived. In other words, about 19 years ago Aegon was conceived and about 19 years ago Illyrio was marrying his first wife. For Aegon to be the child of Illyrio and Serra, Illyrio's first wife would have to die within the first year and Illyrio would have to marry Serra almost immediately. Once upon a time I had worked out a timeline trying to figure out how quickly Illyrio's first wife would have to die and how quickly he would have to get Serra pregnant for Aegon to be her son. I even allowed that Illyrio could get her pregnant before he married her. Anyhow, I don't find it credible that as Illyrio's second wife, Serra could be his mother.

In case you're wondering how I know when Illyrio's first marriage was, he said it was about the same time Varys went to King's Landing. I don't have all the math anymore since I convinced myself it wasn't likely and moved on.

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1 hour ago, bent branch said:

Illyrio was marrying his first wife at about the point Aegon would have to be conceived. In other words, about 19 years ago Aegon was conceived and about 19 years ago Illyrio was marrying his first wife. For Aegon to be the child of Illyrio and Serra, Illyrio's first wife would have to die within the first year and Illyrio would have to marry Serra almost immediately. Once upon a time I had worked out a timeline trying to figure out how quickly Illyrio's first wife would have to die and how quickly he would have to get Serra pregnant for Aegon to be her son. I even allowed that Illyrio could get her pregnant before he married her. Anyhow, I don't find it credible that as Illyrio's second wife, Serra could be his mother.

In case you're wondering how I know when Illyrio's first marriage was, he said it was about the same time Varys went to King's Landing. I don't have all the math anymore since I convinced myself it wasn't likely and moved on.

Aah, OK. I think it is actually a bit more ambiguous than your characterization though. Here is the exact quote I believe you are referring to:

Quote

Just so. I grew so respectable that a cousin of the Prince of Pentos let me wed his maiden daughter, whilst whispers of a certain eunuch's talents crossed the narrow sea and reached the ears of a certain king. A very anxious king, who did not wholly trust his son, nor his wife, nor his Hand, a friend of his youth who had grown arrogant and overproud. I do believe that you know the rest of this tale, is that not so?"

So yeah, he uses the word "whilst". But in the context of Illyrio telling the entire life story of him and Varys, I could easily see it being a number of years in between Illyrio's first marriage and Varys actually travelling to KL (which was in 278 I think). And he didn't even say "whilst Varys was in KL" or anything like that. He just said that Aerys heard about Varys during that period of time.

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46 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

"... never happens in GRRMth":   We're going to have to agree to disagree on this.  Best as I can recall, fair-haired children are never described as darkening with age in Dickens' novels either, but that does not mean that the Dickensverse is an alternate reality wherein no brown haired adult was ever a blond haired toddler.  

"... would have been telegraphed":    Why?  An author who wants to surprise his readers can be subtle.  He is no obligation to hammer in what ought to be common knowledge, to make sure nobody will be misled by what might mislead the careless.  Maybe he thinks the fire and blood dreams, and other clues, are sufficient, without piling it on. 

"... rAegon's hair was fair:"  Yes, and this fully explains the SSM.  If Aegon was fair and Rhaenys was dark, then Aegon looked "more Targaryen" than Rhaenys.  To speculate that GRRM meant more than that is only speculation.

"... plenty of people would know what he looked like:"  Well, most people would have known he had fair hair.  Very few people would spent any time staring into his eyes and pondering his eye color.  Many of the few who might have done so (Elia, Ashara, Rhaegar, e.g.) are dead and gone.  In any event, eye color can change with age as well.    It is probably more important to the conspirators that (f)Aegon "look the part" of a generic Targ, based on preconceived notions of what Rhaegar's son would look like, than that he actually resemble the precise details of the real infant Aegon.   It's not about what's actually true; it's about what most people will believe.  And most people have never seen Baby Aegon at all, not even at a distance.

I don't want to get into the Quentyn Death Fakeout.  Sorry.

 

I sure must have missed the part where Dickens set his writing in a fantasy world and put quite some effort into foreshadowing plot twists so that they don't appear out of blue. But with your attitude, not much use talking to you, right?

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1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Aah, OK. I think it is actually a bit more ambiguous than your characterization though. Here is the exact quote I believe you are referring to:

So yeah, he uses the word "whilst". But in the context of Illyrio telling the entire life story of him and Varys, I could easily see it being a number of years in between Illyrio's first marriage and Varys actually travelling to KL (which was in 278 I think). And he didn't even say "whilst Varys was in KL" or anything like that. He just said that Aerys heard about Varys during that period of time.

Whilst definition: conjunction while

While definition: conjunction during or in the time that, at the same time that

While Illyrio taking his first wife and Varys going to King's Landing may not have happened on the same day, it was within a short period. That really is the only to interpret whilst. Two years is too much. Also, Steffon Baratheon died in 278. Aerys didn't send for Varys until after Steffon died. Varys arrived sometime in 279 or 280. He is mentioned for the first time in 280 in TWOIAF. There is no proof that Varys was there any earlier than that, but we can speculate in maybe the latter half of 279. Aegon is said to have been born in late 281 or early 282. This means he was conceived somewhere between February and May of 281. This would give him a date of birth around November 281 to February 282. Which would be in agreement with the date of birth figured by the wiki.

Now, giving the most generous timeframe possible let's say that Illyrio married his first wife in June of 279 and Aegon was conceived in May of 281, this would give 23 months for this chain of events to occur. Illyrio would marry his maiden (read young) wife, first wife would die, Illyrio would meet Serra and get her pregnant. The timeframes only get shorter from here with the possibility of Illyrio marrying his first wife later and Aegon being conceived sooner. Such a short marriage and quick remarriage would have caused problems for Illyrio with his powerful in-laws. However, they only seem to be offended, not angry, so I doubt the first marriage was that short.

When I pointed this out to the person who considered this theory theirs, they admitted that the timeframe was really tight, but that they liked the theory anyway. That's fine, as you said people can decide what they want to believe. However, this whole thread started with someone asking if there was a consensus on this theory. The answer to that is still no. It is not even the most popular theory out there.

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13 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

That's not true. The Martells may not be phenotypes, but they can be carriers of a recessive gene. The first Daenerys Targaryen married the Prince of Dorne. And before that, Larra Rogare's Lyseni uncle married the Princess of Dorne.

I've checked whether a recessive partial albinism gene works out here:

 

I think you misunderstood what I was saying. We know from Quentyn's point of view and the PsOV of those who interact with him that he looks like a Martell. If this Quentyn is actually Aegon, then Aegon had to look like a Martell. And GRRM implied that Aegon had the standard Valyrian look.

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@Lew Theobald did the originator of the Quentyn/Aegon swap theory address the issue of Doran's having betrothed Arianne to Viserys? 

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19 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

It was Bran Vras back in 2011, who first proposed that Quentyn had been baby-swapped.

But the originator of the Quentyn/Aegon version, is yours truly, AFAIK.

It seems that the (f)Aegon conspiracy, via Illyrio at least, was at least PRETENDING to be working with Viserys.  You can ask why, but since this is appears true regardless of (f)Aegon's true identity, I don't think it is something that any particular theory of his identity needs to address.

It arguably makes sense for Doran to have multiple eggs in multiple baskets when planning a generation in the future.  Children don't always work out like you hope they will.  Also, the trade-a-princess-for-an-army scheme might have borne fruit, and then the invaders would have a whole extra army.

It makes sense that Doran would want a Targ claimant like Viserys to at least THINK Doran was on his side.  And if Viserys manages to raise an army, all well and good.  These forces will likely shift their loyalty to Visery's Targ nephew, if it ever Viserys is removed from the picture (or even if he is NOT removed from the picture).  And there might be any number of ways of quietly removing Viserys from the picture.

It also occurs to me that using the Dothraki to invade Westeros is not likely to be popular.  So why not do it anyway, and have Viserys take the blame?  Meanwhile, the son of the popular and talented Rhaegar waits in the wings to save everyone.

But these are just random thoughts.  Truth is, I despair of unraveling the complex schemes of plotters like Littlefinger, Varys and/or Doran.  Sometimes I wonder even if GRRM knows what they're up to.

 

  

These are some good points, but GRRM has said that Viserys didn't know about the betrothal, so that particular issue would not have been factored in. 

I can see Doran having eggs in more than one basket as you say, but when he tells Arianne that she was to be queen of Westeros, and that's why Quentyn/Aegon was going to rule Dorne, he has to be lying to Arianne. I don't have a problem with that really, but when you add in the Dothraki invasion, she'd be going down with her husband. I'm not sure Doran would do that to her.

I think we all despair of that. :) But I do believe GRRM knows what they're doing.

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4 hours ago, bent branch said:

Whilst definition: conjunction while

While definition: conjunction during or in the time that, at the same time that

While Illyrio taking his first wife and Varys going to King's Landing may not have happened on the same day, it was within a short period. That really is the only to interpret whilst. Two years is too much. Also, Steffon Baratheon died in 278. Aerys didn't send for Varys until after Steffon died. Varys arrived sometime in 279 or 280. He is mentioned for the first time in 280 in TWOIAF. There is no proof that Varys was there any earlier than that, but we can speculate in maybe the latter half of 279. Aegon is said to have been born in late 281 or early 282. This means he was conceived somewhere between February and May of 281. This would give him a date of birth around November 281 to February 282. Which would be in agreement with the date of birth figured by the wiki.

Now, giving the most generous timeframe possible let's say that Illyrio married his first wife in June of 279 and Aegon was conceived in May of 281, this would give 23 months for this chain of events to occur. Illyrio would marry his maiden (read young) wife, first wife would die, Illyrio would meet Serra and get her pregnant. The timeframes only get shorter from here with the possibility of Illyrio marrying his first wife later and Aegon being conceived sooner. Such a short marriage and quick remarriage would have caused problems for Illyrio with his powerful in-laws. However, they only seem to be offended, not angry, so I doubt the first marriage was that short.

When I pointed this out to the person who considered this theory theirs, they admitted that the timeframe was really tight, but that they liked the theory anyway. That's fine, as you said people can decide what they want to believe. However, this whole thread started with someone asking if there was a consensus on this theory. The answer to that is still no. It is not even the most popular theory out there.

But there are two big problems with your time line. First and more importantly, like I said before Illyrio did not marry his wife "whilst" Varys was in KL. He married her whilst whispers of Varys talents spread to the ears of Aerys. We really have no idea how much time passed between Aerys first hearing about Varys and actually summoning him to KL.

Second, it is implied (because the book content is basically chronological) that Varys was already in KL by the time Rhaegar got married in early 279, so really, even if Illyrio waited until Varys was in KL to marry his wife (which there is no implication of) that could have been a full year earlier than your proposed time line.

Also, fAegon could potentially be younger than Aegon. Obviously not too much younger or they couldn't fool JonCon, but certainly a few months at least.

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2 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I think you misunderstood what I was saying. We know from Quentyn's point of view and the PsOV of those who interact with him that he looks like a Martell. If this Quentyn is actually Aegon, then Aegon had to look like a Martell. And GRRM implied that Aegon had the standard Valyrian look.

My bad. Thank you for clairfying. And I agree with that.

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HA!  You guys are great.  A simple "yes" would have worked.  But this is much more fun. 

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