The truth about Ashara Dayne's suicide

[Lockjaw of House Boltagon]

I know this has been argued to death and back, but Septa Lemore doesn't have purple/violet eyes, and not even Tyrion at his horniest describes her as breathtakingly beautiful as Ashara was. 

As others have said, Ashara is one of the most mysterious characters in the series, precisely because I don't know what role she's supposed to play in the story, if any. The thing about the stillborn girl in particular throws me off because it seems so specific.

I think I lean towards the Ashara = Jyana Reed crackpot, but I don't know what implications it would have for the rest of the story. 

[The Sleeper]

1 hour ago, Buried Treasure said:

I lean against Ashara being in Dorne for most of her pregnancy because Barristan knows or thinks he knows what happened at the end of her pregnancy. Barristan was not in Dorne, and certainly not late in the war when he was Robert's prisoner, and there is not otherwise gossip of her stillborn (such rumours as there about her work backwards from Ned's acknowledged bastard's mother being unknown). I would suggest that Ashara and Barristan were in proximity in KL or Dragonstone, which allowed him to see or hear something to conclude that she had a stillborn baby.

Barristan believes that she commited suicide shortly after she had the baby. Barristan at the time should be in King's Landing. If what he believes is true about the time of her giving birth, then he wouldn't have known it first hand. And yet he is the only one who mentions a stillborn daughter.

As Cersei mentions the possibility that Jon was Ashara's son, it sounds like there were indeed rumors about a pregnancy.

[teej6]

On 8/16/2017 at 9:38 PM, SFDanny said:

As a long time advocate of the Septa Lemore = Ashara Dayne theory, I agree. Ashara needs to be alive to understand the huge hole in Aegon's (aka Young Griff) story. For five years after he left Westeros Jon Connington knew nothing of Aegon and lived his life in exile as a member of the Golden Company. Yet someone convinced him that the child who we came to know of as Young Griff, really was Rhaegar's son Aegon. Who vouched for and convinced him the child was who he thinks he is? Not Varys, who was his golden prince's enemy. Not a Pentoshi cheese merchant. It has to be someone he trusts. And it has to be someone Prince Doran trusts, or this plot dies without Dorne's support. Lady Ashara is one of the only characters who can fit this role. She has to tell both Connington, and in the future, the Princes of Dorne that she left Starfall with Aegon to protect him from Robert. Whether any of that is true or not is another question, but she is the only character who makes this story believable to the right people.

What doesn't fully convince me about Lemore being Ashara is that Tyrion describes Lemore as being handsome and easy on the eye. Ashara was a great beauty and to be described as such does not make sense. Granted, Ashara is a middle aged woman now but I still find it hard to believe that she still wouldn't be considered beautiful. Then we have her haunting violet eyes, which Tyrion couldn't have failed to notice had Lemore had such eyes, but he makes no mention of it. But then again the stretch marks on her belly has to mean something. GRRM didn't have that line in there to show Septa's are not all chaste, there's more to it than that and we are told by Selmy that Ashara had a stillborn child and Cersei also implies that Ashara was pregnant. 

As to Jon Connington, I feel the man was so depressed and guilt ridden that perhaps some lie by Varys could have done the trick.

There was a theory floating around on this site that Ashara could be in  Greywater Watch and is probably Meera and Jogen's mum. But then again Ashara is described as tall and both the Reed kids are not and they both have green eyes. Perhaps they just took after their father. 

I also feel strongly about the possibility that Allyria could be Ashara's daughter. 

[Buried Treasure]

2 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

Barristan believes that she commited suicide shortly after she had the baby. Barristan at the time should be in King's Landing. If what he believes is true about the time of her giving birth, then he wouldn't have known it first hand. And yet he is the only one who mentions a stillborn daughter.

As Cersei mentions the possibility that Jon was Ashara's son, it sounds like there were indeed rumors about a pregnancy.

'soon after' is relative. Barristan is an old man reflecting on events 16+ years ago; two events seperated by around  around a year could seem close together to his mind.

Cersei suggested Ashara as a possible mother for Jon yes, but because Ned and Ashara are linked by his journey to see her in Dorne, and the existence of Jon. Cersei (nor anybody else outside Barristan) does not hint of any rumours of Ashara having a non-Jon pregnancy.

 

 

[teej6]

8 minutes ago, Buried Treasure said:

'soon after' is relative. Barristan is an old man reflecting on events 16+ years ago; two events seperated by around  around a year could seem close together to his mind.

Cersei suggested Ashara as a possible mother for Jon yes, but because Ned and Ashara are linked by his journey to see her in Dorne, and the existence of Jon. Cersei (nor anybody else outside Barristan) does not hint of any rumours of Ashara having a non-Jon pregnancy.

 

 

But there's the whole thing of Ashara being dishonored as well. But then again IIRC that's also only something Selmy alludes too. But we know from Meera's account that Ashara danced with Ned after Brandon spoke on his behalf. I feel that A+B is a strong possibility and a child from that affair could be very possible and it most definitely isn't Jon. Ashara may have unwittingly caused her lover (she may have been the one to tell Brandon about Lyanna's kidnapping by Rhaegar because that's probably how she may have initially understood it) and her brother's (she prolly told Ned where Lyanna could be found) deaths. Ned probably loved her but she may have had eyes for Brandon hence the anger and pain in Ned's voice when he talks about Brandon to Cat in AGOT.

[Lord Varys]

Lemore could very well be Aegon's mother. That would explain why she cares and why she is with him.

Her being Ashara makes considerably less if you look at her. She isn't described as a great (former) beauty. Ashara was about Cersei's age or slightly older, and Cersei is still a stunning beauty in 300 AC. Lemore also doesn't have dark hair but merely brown hair. And she doesn't have haunting (violet) eyes. One can argue that it is intriguing that we didn't get her eye color - which is odd and noteworthy - but this doesn't mean she has violet eyes. She could have, but I'd not bet a lot of money on that. And considering that Tyrion notices Aegon's blue-purple eyes it would be somewhat odd for him to ignore/miss Lemore's eyes of a similar color. After all, he noted the stretch marks on her body, a detail that might be supposed to point the reader to her as Aegon's potential mother.

One could argue that Lemore might also use a dye to color hair brown but why wouldn't she use the same blue dye Jon and Aegon are using? And if he hair was dyed why isn't the dye washed out during her constant swims in the Rhoyne?

All that doesn't make it very likely that Lemore is Ashara Dayne. Not impossible, but not very likely.

Not to mention that Ashara involving herself in the Aegon scheme needs a lot of additional assumptions we have no reason to make as of yet.

[TMIFairy]

2 hours ago, teej6 said:

 Ned probably loved her but she may have had eyes for Brandon hence the anger and pain in Ned's voice when he talks about Brandon to Cat in AGOT.

Yup, Ned having a  crush on Ashara and she bonking Brandon could be the cause of the "never mention her again" reaction he had to the N+A=J rumours at Winterfell. 

As to Brandon shagging Ashara in the Riverlands under Tully noses not long before his wedding to Catelyn - IMO very in character. He was very much like Robert - plus the "wolf blood|" - so something so stupid, self-indulging and reckless is just something he would had done.  "A man has needs" and all that ...

[Lady Blizzardborn]

7 hours ago, Lockjaw of House Boltagon said:

I know this has been argued to death and back, but Septa Lemore doesn't have purple/violet eyes, and not even Tyrion at his horniest describes her as breathtakingly beautiful as Ashara was. 

As others have said, Ashara is one of the most mysterious characters in the series, precisely because I don't know what role she's supposed to play in the story, if any. The thing about the stillborn girl in particular throws me off because it seems so specific.

I think I lean towards the Ashara = Jyana Reed crackpot, but I don't know what implications it would have for the rest of the story. 

I have a variation on that which you might like. Far too crackpot even for my series, besides which it piggybacks on the fine work of another forum member. 

To the general discussion...

GRRM has said that Ashara was at Starfall during the war but "was not nailed down" at Starfall. So yes, she could travel, but traveling safely outside of Dorne would be far too risky. We know she left court at some point, and the rumors of a pregnancy combined with that information do make it seem very likely that she was forced to leave when it was discovered that she was to be an unwed mother. No matter how tolerated bastards are in Dorne, no matter what Elia personally felt about it, the wife of the crown prince and mother of a future king cannot have a woman around her who would go to bed with someone prior to marriage (and not at least drink moon tea to ensure there was no proof).

Back to plain facts, serving as a lady-in-waiting at court was something you didn't just volunteer for and leave when you felt like it. Barristan remembers that his choice for the QoLaB would have been "a young maiden not long at court." So Ashara was near the beginning of her service as lady-in-waiting to Elia. We don't know whether ladies-in-waiting were meant to stay indefinitely or were at court on rotation, but the fact that she hadn't been at court long rather points toward her going back to KL or Dragonstone with Elia after the tourney. For the remainder of her time at court at least, Ned is likely out of contention. And given GRRM's statement about her being in Dorne during the war, that means she left court before it started or at the very beginning of of the hostilities. 

Jon's conception can be calculated in one of two ways: based on GRRM saying he was born 8-9 months before Dany was, or being within a month--two at the absolute most--of Robb's conception.

We know Robb was conceived prior to the Battle of the Bells (Riverlands), because Hoster didn't start fighting until his daughters were married. If we could get a good understanding of when the Battle of the Bells took place in the calendar year, it would make this easier, as it is we know that it was the fourth battle of the war, and that Robert fought in it after having fought also in the taking of Gulltown (Vale), Summerhall (Stormlands), and Ashford (Reach) as well. It shouldn't take a huge amount of time to get from Summerhall to Ashford, but the other two trips were probably longer. We also know for certain that Ned was not only present but one of the commanders during the Battle of the Bells. He is not listed as a commander at Gulltown, Summerhall, or Ashford, nor is the North listed as participating in any of those battles. That makes sense considering the size of the North and the distance from all the major battle sites. It would have taken Ned time to get home, call the banners, get the men assembled, and get to the fighting. So from the time the raven arrives in the Vale demanding his head onward, Ned is busy.

Dany's birth was nine months after the Sack of King's Landing, at the tail end of the war. So subtract 8-9 months for Jon's birth, then another 9 for the pregnancy. Again, a nice calendar showing us exactly when the Sack of KL occurred would be great. The month of wiggle room GRRM gives can easily be taken up by Ned's ending the siege at Storm's End and getting to the ToJ. If he finds Lyanna about month after the Sack, and she's just given birth to Jon, then Jon is 8 months older than Dany is. Childbed fever can take anywhere from days to two weeks to kill (the longest I know if is twelve days), so GRRM has given a very appropriate window without being exact. Jon can be born up to two weeks before Ned gets to the ToJ and it is within the 8-9 months GRRM said. Whether you believe R+L=J or not, you have to admit it fits beautifully.

Sadly this still doesn't give us much insight into what happened to Ashara. 

[TMIFairy]

2 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Jon's conception can be calculated in one of two ways: based on GRRM saying he was born 8-9 months before Dany was, or being within a month--two at the absolute most--of Robb's conception.
 

Possible for both B+A=J and N+A=J.

Brandon or Ned are begetting Jon on Ashara in the Riverlands - or maybe in the Vale, Lyanna kidnapped, Brandon learns of Lyanna being kidnapped and rushes to KL, Rickard learns of Brandon's arrest and rushes to KL, the two are murdered, Aerys sends raven to Vale demanding Jon Arryn pass over Robert and Eddard into his hands, Eddard flees North, [on the way he begets Jon on a fisherwoman at the Sisters?], comes down to Riverrun with the van of his army, begets Robb on Catelyn.

The above is possible inside 6 weeks, albeit barely, making eight weeks more plausible.

At some point Ashara returns to wherever Elia is residing, misses her moonblood twice and gets leave from Ellia "to visit family".

IMO.

What a movie the above would make

[The Sleeper]

7 hours ago, Buried Treasure said:

'soon after' is relative. Barristan is an old man reflecting on events 16+ years ago; two events seperated by around  around a year could seem close together to his mind.

Cersei suggested Ashara as a possible mother for Jon yes, but because Ned and Ashara are linked by his journey to see her in Dorne, and the existence of Jon. Cersei (nor anybody else outside Barristan) does not hint of any rumours of Ashara having a non-Jon pregnancy.

 

 

It is relative. It can't be ruled out that they events were a year apart, but then again they may have not. To me it reads as if the two events were in sequence and related.

I checked the worldbook and Elia with baby Aegon were in Dragonstone, when Rhaegar carried off Lyanna. Due to her health, the fact that Dragonstone is Rhaegar's seat and that they didn't get along with Aerys, means that Aegon was born there. In the normal course of events, as Ashara was in Elia's service, she should be there, as well. Barristan should be with Aerys in King's Landing.

Ned comimg home with a baby is not enough to assume that it was Ashara's. Ned claimed Jon's mother was the Dayne's wet nurse. The rumors of Jon being Ashara's can have two possible sources. They were either believed to have had a relationship in Harrenhal, or there were rumors that Ashara was pregnant. Or both.

[The Sleeper]

Lemore being Ashara, falters on age. Lemore is being described as being past forty, which would make Ashara at twenty three plus at Harrenhal, an unlikely age for a highborn maid to be unmarried and unspoken for.

[Ygrain]

People can lose beauty and formerly haunting eyes may lose the charm, but if Lemore had purple eyes and GRRM didn't indicate it in any way, I would consider it very poor writing, especially when she is travelling in the company of YG whose purple eyes disguised by his dyed hair are a plot point. We have never seen such a cop-out from GRRM, so I don't believe Lemore is Ashara.

[Stormourne]

11 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

People can lose beauty and formerly haunting eyes may lose the charm, but if Lemore had purple eyes and GRRM didn't indicate it in any way, I would consider it very poor writing, especially when she is travelling in the company of YG whose purple eyes disguised by his dyed hair are a plot point. We have never seen such a cop-out from GRRM, so I don't believe Lemore is Ashara.

I agree. That would not be good writing, not when purple eyes are rare in Westeros. By that I mean it is rare for Westerosi to have purple eyes. Since Tyrion knew the Septa was from Westeros, and presumably born in Westeros, he would comment on the fact she has purple eyes.

[SFDanny]

4 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

Lemore being Ashara, falters on age. Lemore is being described as being past forty, which would make Ashara at twenty three plus at Harrenhal, an unlikely age for a highborn maid to be unmarried and unspoken for.

All we are told of Ashara's age is that she is, like Howland Reed, in her thirties at the time of the main story. Meaning anywhere from 30 to 39 in 298 AC and about two years older when Tyrion gives his estimate of Lemore's age. An age of 30 in 298 would have made her 13 at Harrenhal, which is  probably too young for her description there.

Given Ned's age and Brandon's age at Harrenhal, it is likely Ashara was somewhere near them in age. Which puts her in her late thirties when she meets Tyrion as Lemore. Understanding she has spent the last 17 plus years, not as a pampered handmaid to the Princess of Dragonstone, but as a woman living on the riverboats of the Rhoyne exposed daily to all the elements, then Tyrion's estimate makes sense. Her real and likely age is well within the range of his guess.

[The Sleeper]

28 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

All we are told of Ashara's age is that she is, like Howland Reed, in her thirties at the time of the main story. Meaning anywhere from 30 to 39 in 298 AC and about two years older when Tyrion gives is estimate of Lemore's age. An age of 30 in 298 would have made her 13 at Harrenhal, which is  probably too young for her description there.

Given Ned's age and Brandon's age at Harrenhal, it is likely Ashara was somewhere near them in age. Which puts her in her late thirties when she meets Tyrion as Lemore. Understanding she has spent the last 17 plus years, not as a pampered handmade to the Princess of Dragonstone, but as woman living on the riverboats of the Rhoyne, then Tyrion's estimate makes sense. It's well within the range of his guess.

I don't believe we are told anything about Ashara's age. I am working on the assumption that she was 15-18 years old at Harrenhal. That would mean at least an estimate on behalf of Tyrion of at least five years off, possibly close to ten. It's not well within the range, as far as I am concerned. Besides there is nothing in Lemore's description that suggests she is in ill health. On the contrary. Why would she look that much older than she actually is? It's not like she's been doing hard manual labor on the pole boat. 

There is nothing in Lemore's physical description that points to Ashara Dayne. She is not described as tall and there are no purple eyes, which is pretty much the first thing anyone mentions when they think about Ashara.  The age, unless Ashara was over twenty at Harrenhal eliminates her as a candidate. People just keep explaing away things to make her fit. It doesn't work for me.

As to who would have persuaded Jon Connington to rear Aegon, that would be his lover, Myles Toyne and his own need to find some purpose and hope in his life after having lost it all.

[SFDanny]

1 hour ago, The Sleeper said:

I don't believe we are told anything about Ashara's age. I am working on the assumption that she was 15-18 years old at Harrenhal.

We are by the author. George was asked how old Howland Reed was and he responded "in his thirties." He was then asked how old Ashara was and he said "the same." It's in an old SSM posted in the Citadel, but I'm on the road now and can't look it up.

If Ashara was the same age as Ned at Harrenhal, the she would be 38 in 300AC. If she was Brandon's age she would be 39 in the same year. Either is close enough to fit Tyrion's estimate of 40 in year 300.

[Lord Varys]

If George wanted to make Lemore being Ashara a notable and working twist that could explain why he refused to describe her eyes in ADwD. That would have given the game away.

But that still doesn't fit well with the fact that Tyrion apparently overlooked or failed to mention those eyes.

We also have no reason to believe that the gang lived on that pole boat for over a decade - I mean, what would the point of that?

And it is not that Connington looks as if he has aged prematurely. And he may be somewhat older than Ashara Dayne.

She should still be visibly recognizable as a former stunning beauty even if she no longer looks that part. But Lemore isn't described in that fashion.

And again - chances are not that good that Ashara Dayne would trouble herself with involving herself in some stupid Aegon scheme. We don't even know whether she was particularly loyal to the Targaryens or even Elia.

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

8 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We don't even know whether she was particularly loyal to the Targaryens or even Elia.

That's a good point. I had never considered this when pondering the Ashara=Lemore possibility. 

[Sasha]

Hi everyone ! Forgive my bad english !

I don't think Septa Lemore is Ashara. No violet eyes. But Septa Lemore was once a mother. Tyrion is not fooled by her. 

Why isn't  Septa Lemore simply Elia Martell ? She seems healthier but she had a different life, no more babies to threaten her life, so she feels better. 

What if a simple and plain lady in waiting, dressed like the princess was murdered by the Mountain ? Because Rhaegar had already married Lyanna. So, maybe he was no longer with his wife and she secretly left King's landing with Varys help. 

What triggered my thoughts about Septa Lemore is that she is a mysterious woman and if Rhaegar had repudiated his wife, he was not a dishonorable man. Maybe Elia, knowing she could not be his wife anymore and knowing he was in love with Lyanna, chose to get an honorable leave and chose to be a Septa. Their marriage was not romantic. When things turned bad, maybe she plotted with Varys (or he included her in his plots) to save Aegon. If it's true, what about her little girl ? 

Ashara had a lot of reasons to commit suicide. She was (maybe) in love with Brandon Stark, she was dishonored (because Brandon was already betrothed to Catelynn Tully and didn't mean to marry Ashara). Maybe she hoped Brandon would change his mind and marry her. She lost her baby girl. Brandon died, her beloved brother died. Well, I think it's enough to kill yourself. 

I have another candidate : Benjen Stark. We never knew why he joined the Black cloaks. It's rumored he was too sad after so many deaths (Brandon, Rickard...). Why not because he dishonored a lady? 

I can't remember who told about Brandon's bad conduct with ladies. Help me please remember who it was!  

But I do remember he was not very serious. 

Just a theory...:) 

[Lady Blizzardborn]

10 hours ago, TMIFairy said:

Possible for both B+A=J and N+A=J.

Brandon or Ned are begetting Jon on Ashara in the Riverlands - or maybe in the Vale, Lyanna kidnapped, Brandon learns of Lyanna being kidnapped and rushes to KL, Rickard learns of Brandon's arrest and rushes to KL, the two are murdered, Aerys sends raven to Vale demanding Jon Arryn pass over Robert and Eddard into his hands, Eddard flees North, [on the way he begets Jon on a fisherwoman at the Sisters?], comes down to Riverrun with the van of his army, begets Robb on Catelyn.

The above is possible inside 6 weeks, albeit barely, making eight weeks more plausible.

At some point Ashara returns to wherever Elia is residing, misses her moonblood twice and gets leave from Ellia "to visit family".

IMO.

What a movie the above would make

It would make a good movie. But ladies-in-waiting do not get to hang around in places where their mistress is not--it is their job to be a servant/companion to the queen or princess, and go wherever she goes, so it's unlikely that Ashara was in the Riverlands longer than for the tourney at Harrenhal, and even more unlikely she'd be in the Vale at any point. Not impossible of course, but unlikely.

Harrenhal is still the best option for Ashara being impregnated by a Stark of any kind (let's not leave Rickard out; he was still breathing at this point!).  IIRC the best estimations put Harrenhal 3-6 months before Lyanna's alleged abduction, and that makes it impossible for Jon to be passed off as younger than Robb who was conceived at least a month into the war--probably further in.

However...if Elia was in KL instead of Dragonstone, there is a slight (and I mean very slight) possibility that Ashara managed a quickie with Brandon in the Red Keep before he was arrested. Given that Rhaegar and Elia lived on Dragonstone this is remote, but not impossible. Elia could have taken the children to visit their grandmother for a few weeks.

This B+A baby wouldn't be Jon though, not because of timeline issues, but because there is absolutely no reason not to tell Cat the truth at some point during their 15 years of marriage and having 5 children together. None. He could have told Cat it was Brandon's child, fathered just before the war (cause his brother was a hound dog), and left the mother out altogether. Ned has to at least think that the baby is Rhaegar's, and he would have no reason to take in Rhaegar's child unless Lyanna was the mother.