The truth about Ashara Dayne's suicide

[Lady Blizzardborn]

11 minutes ago, Sasha said:

Hi everyone ! Forgive my bad english !

I don't think Septa Lemore is Ashara. No violet eyes. But Septa Lemore was once a mother. Tyrion is not fooled by her. 

Why isn't  Septa Lemore simply Elia Martell ? She seems healthier but she had a different life, no more babies to threaten her life, so she feels better. 

What if a simple and plain lady in waiting, dressed like the princess was murdered by the Mountain ? Because Rhaegar had already married Lyanna. So, maybe he was no longer with his wife and she secretly left King's landing with Varys help. 

What triggered my thoughts about Septa Lemore is that she is a mysterious woman and if Rhaegar had repudiated his wife, he was not a dishonorable man. Maybe Elia, knowing she could not be his wife anymore and knowing he was in love with Lyanna, chose to get an honorable leave and chose to be a Septa. Their marriage was not romantic. When things turned bad, maybe she plotted with Varys (or he included her in his plots) to save Aegon. If it's true, what about her little girl ? 

Ashara had a lot of reasons to commit suicide. She was (maybe) in love with Brandon Stark, she was dishonored (because Brandon was already betrothed to Catelynn Tully and didn't mean to marry Ashara). Maybe she hoped Brandon would change his mind and marry her. She lost her baby girl. Brandon died, her beloved brother died. Well, I think it's enough to kill yourself. 

I have another candidate : Benjen Stark. We never knew why he joined the Black cloaks. It's rumored he was too sad after so many deaths (Brandon, Rickard...). Why not because he dishonored a lady? 

I can't remember who told about Brandon's bad conduct with ladies. Help me please remember who it was!  

But I do remember he was not very serious. 

Just a theory...:) 

Your English is fine. I understood everything you said.

Elia would not have abandoned her children to disappear without them and we know from GRRM that Rhaenys at least was murdered by Ser Amory Lorch during the Sack of King's Landing. Gregor even admitted to having raped and murdered her, right before killing her brother. So Lemore is not likely to be Elia. While I think she could be persuaded to swap Aegon out, I don't see her leaving KL without Rhaenys. That kind of loss would be something Tyrion would notice in her eyes as well, a sadness that appears without warning and then is gone almost before he sees it. If Elia was Septa Lemore, then she would seem way more invested in Young Griff because she would be on him to reclaim his father's birthright and to avenge his sister. Lemore is not just that emotionally involved enough for her to be Elia. Also Tyrion would be able to recognize her Martell looks and features. Even older, she would still look salty Dornish.

Benjen was 13 or 14 years old. That's a bit young to be fathering bastards unless you're Oberyn Martell, and Benjen clearly was not Oberyn Martell. I've never heard anything official about why Benjen joined the Night's Watch but he was interested in that during the tourney at Harrenhal. It could just be that as a third son he never expected to have much of a future, and as a Stark he knew the heroic history of the Watch and decided he wanted to be a hero too. After Ned got back from the war and Catelyn joined him with baby Robb, there was no reason to worry about the line dying out and Benjen was free to make his own way. So he made his own way north and took the black. 

Barbrey Dustin told us about Brandon's activities. She was extremely serious, as she had given her maidenhead to Brandon and hoped to marry him. When she realized that wasn't going to happen she set her sights on Ned, but she couldn't get him either. 

[The Sleeper]

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

We are by the author. George was asked how old Howland Reed was and he responded "in his thirties." He was then asked how old Ashara was and he said "the same." It's in an old SSM posted in the Citadel, but I'm on the road now and can't look it up.

If Ashara was the same age as Ned at Harrenhal, the she would be 38 in 300AC. If she was Brandon's age she would be 39 in the same year. Either is close enough to fit Tyrion's estimate of 40 in year 300.

Tyrion estimated her at past forty, not forty. Ashara could well have been younger than either Stark. You are using the higher estimate of Ashara and the lower estimate for Lemore. Lemore's physical description does not point to Ashara it nearly excludes her.

It can be equally speculated that if Ashara is alive, she is thirty-five, while Lemore is forty five.

 

[Ygrain]

24 minutes ago, Sasha said:

What if a simple and plain lady in waiting, dressed like the princess was murdered by the Mountain ? 

People who knew Elia well would make sure that the body was indeed hers, I'm afraid. Little Aegon was the only one disfigured so much that his identity could be doubted.

22 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

However...if Elia was in KL instead of Dragonstone, there is a slight (and I mean very slight) possibility that Ashara managed a quickie with Brandon in the Red Keep before he was arrested. Given that Rhaegar and Elia lived on Dragonstone this is remote, but not impossible. Elia could have taken the children to visit their grandmother for a few weeks.

Given that Aegon's birth nearly killed her, I don't think she was fit to travel any time soon (IIRC, she was bedridden for half a year after Rhaenys).

[acwill07]

On 8/16/2017 at 5:47 PM, Coolbeard the Exile said:

200% he is Eddard and Ashars son. 

LOL if you really believe this then the Winds of Winter and a Dream of Spring is really going to disappoint you.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

That's a good point. I had never considered this when pondering the Ashara=Lemore possibility. 

The other thing is that it seems very likely she had her child at Starfall. That is where Ned found her when he returned Dawn and that's where she (allegedly) killed herself. But Starfall isn't exactly the place where you would be recruited into the Aegon scheme.

Connington was an exile when he was recruited and convinced to fake his death. All he could expect of life at this point is continue as a sellsword until he went into an early grave during some pointless battle in the Disputed Lands.

But Ashara basically has no reason we know of or could come up with on the basis of the information we have to involve herself in any grand scheme. And considering that she became pregnant after Harrenhal we also have a good reason to assume that Princess Elia or Queen Rhaella decided to send her back to Dorne in disgrace. We do know that the queen did not like it when her ladies became whores, and in the end it would have fallen to Rhaella to enforce the court regulations on this thing if Elia wasn't up to that task.

That makes it generally not very likely that Ashara's child could have been swapped with Aegon, or any such story.

It is clear that she is going to play some important part in the (back) story but with the amount of information we have as of yet we can't really decide in what direction that goes.

However, I daresay that we have little reason to doubt that she had a stillborn daughter. Selmy had the hots for her and we have no reason to believe he did not really get good information on her eventual fate and the fate of her child. Arthur Dayne was Selmy's sworn brother which means the man would have known who to ask to get precise information on what had transpired at Starfall. Unless, of course, we assume the entire House Dayne along with all their servants and men-at-arms are part of some large conspiracy - in addition to the whole other thing to protect Jon Snow's true identity.

And that's just not all that likely.

[Leo of House Cartel]

If Ashara is alive, what would her reasons be for faking her death?

From an R+L=J standpoint, would she have any reason to fear Robert's wrath? I'm not sure. Gerold, Allyria and Edric don't seem to have suffered any repurcusions just for being related to Rhaegars best bud Arthur, yet all were most likely absent from court during the Rebellion. If Robert knew of Ashara's Stark association he may have even considered her in a positive light.

If she really did fake her suicide, perhaps the reasons were more based in good old crackpot prophecy.

Ashara might have known and believed in Rhaegar's tales of promised princes and saviour figures, there's a fine chance her brother did. The whole of House Dayne could have adhered to numerous fables and myths throughout the years - the legend of their family sword, and the title which comes with it, is certainly steeped in it's own mythology.

Did Howland and baby Jon accompany Ned to the Island of Starfall? If Reed was in attendance, and if the Daynes are partial to prophecy, one can imagine him having something mysterious to say.

What would Howland thought if a dying Lyanna had declared her baby The Prince That Was Promised? From Meera's story regarding the Crannogman's trip to The God's Eye, it would seem that Howland was already engaging in some kind of magical behaviour, for lack of a better term. Lyanna apparently saved Howland from the squires at Harrenhal, so one would assume they were on good terms - why then wouldn't he take into account any tales she might have told about Rhaegars prophecy? And if he was at Starfall, why wouldn't he question Arthur Dayne's sister, a former lady in waiting to Rhaegars wife, on the matter?

I'm not sure why this potential interaction would make Ashara fake a suicide, maybe she is on a hermitage of her own, waiting for the eventual day she will lend her alibi to any bombshells about Jon's parentage. 

Or maybe she really did leap to her death

 

 

[The Bard of Banefort]

Assuming that Brandon was Ashara's lover, I think Ned showed so much anger at her being mentioned by Cat because it was an instance of yet another slight on his honor that he had to make in order to protect his family. Revealing that Brandon had an affair while betrothed to Cat would only further hurt her feelings. Assuming Lyanna chose to run off with Rhaegar, Ned had basically spent fifteen years allowing his own reputation to be tarnished in because of his sibling's decisions.

[SFDanny]

9 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

Tyrion estimated her at past forty, not forty. Ashara could well have been younger than either Stark. You are using the higher estimate of Ashara and the lower estimate for Lemore. Lemore's physical description does not point to Ashara it nearly excludes her.

It can be equally speculated that if Ashara is alive, she is thirty-five, while Lemore is forty five.

 

No, I'm saying what Martin has told us here.

Quote

6) How old is Howland Reed?

He'd be in his thirties.

7) And how would have been Ashara Dayne?

Ditto.

What this tells us is that Ashara being Lemore cannot be ruled out because of a known age.

My examples of Ashara being Ned's or Brandon's age are just that - examples. She also could be older or younger than either of them as long as she fits within Martin's range.

 

[Lady Blizzardborn]

9 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Given that Aegon's birth nearly killed her, I don't think she was fit to travel any time soon (IIRC, she was bedridden for half a year after Rhaenys).

Do we know when Aegon was born? The wiki is spectacularly unhelpful on this.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

6 hours ago, Leo of House Cartel said:

If Ashara is alive, what would her reasons be for faking her death?

<snipped for length

Well there are a couple of options here.

1. Based on her having been potentially close to Elia, she may have been in on the prophecy (I'm imagining some kind of prophecy club at the Dragonstone court with a secret handshake and everything). Could be she thought or was told she would have a role in the coming need to save Westeros, and went elsewhere for training. The rare Faceless Woman, a Red Priestess, Quaithe, etc.

2. To smuggle a Targaryen baby out, or act as wetnurse or caretaker for a smuggled Targaryen baby, temporarily. But it's unlikely she'd stay long-term given that she was an incredibly beautiful woman, and thus one who would attract attention wherever she went. It would have been easier for Aegon or anybody else to stay under the radar without a beauty queen in the entourage. It's also possible that she died abroad.

3. A marriage her family disapproved of and threatened to disown her for. Example...
Lord Dayne: Wed that one? I'd rather see you dead.
Ashara: Fine. Tell everyone I died.

And let us not forget that all-time great of mysterious deaths: she didn't jump from that tower...she was pushed. Or slipped on a banana peel.

[SFDanny]

45 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Do we know when Aegon was born? The wiki is spectacularly unhelpful on this.

Very late 281. Which makes him something like a few months shy of his second name day when the sack of King's Landing takes place. It also makes Aegon 18 going on 19 when Tyrion meets "Young Griff." Which may or may not be important depending on who you think Young Griff really is.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

3 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Very late 281. Which makes him something like a few months shy of his second name day when the sack of King's Landing takes place. It also makes Aegon 18 going on 19 when Tyrion meets "Young Griff." Which may or may not be important depending on who you think Young Griff really is.

Thank you. Do we know when the Harrenhal tourney was in relation to when Aegon was born? 

[SFDanny]

50 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Thank you. Do we know when the Harrenhal tourney was in relation to when Aegon was born? 

Not for sure, but there is no mention of Aegon in any description of the tourney. Elia is probably still pregnant at the time. 

Sorry, I'm doing this without notes as I'm on the road waiting for tomorrow's eclipse. Most of what we know about the timing of Aegon's birth comes from just a few quotes. One is this one:

Quote

As cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Huge green fires burned along the walls of the Red Keep for a moon's turn. Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however. Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands.

The vision of Dany at the House of the Undying, and a SSM that places Aegon's age at about one year old during the sack also figure into this. Because we see Aegon with Rhaegar and Elia in the vision and he is gone from them at the coming of the new year it is very likely Aegon's birth is before that date. The problem being Rhaenys is born in 280, and Elia is bedridden for something like six months after. It's at tight timeline and others may try to adjust it to fill all the clues in different ways. I'm just telling you the conclusion I've come to, and I don't think I can be off by more than a month. I hope that helps.

[The Sleeper]

4 hours ago, SFDanny said:

No, I'm saying what Martin has told us here.

What this tells us is that Ashara being Lemore cannot be ruled out because of a known age.

My examples of Ashara being Ned's or Brandon's age are just that - examples. She also could be older or younger than either of them as long as she fits within Martin's range.

 

"In her thirties" and "past forty" don't overlap. That rules Lemore out as Ashara. You are assuming that Tyrion is off about Lemore's age to disregard that.

It doesn't work for me.

[Leo of House Cartel]

6 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

1. Based on her having been potentially close to Elia, she may have been in on the prophecy (I'm imagining some kind of prophecy club at the Dragonstone court with a secret handshake and everything). Could be she thought or was told she would have a role in the coming need to save Westeros, and went elsewhere for training. The rare Faceless Woman, a Red Priestess, Quaithe, etc.

 

 

 A prophecy club, like Rhaegar's own Scooby-Gang? Can totally see something like this coming to light, especially in relation to what might have been said at Starfall before she jumped.

Consider the potential guest list on the day Ned delivered the sword forged from a fallen star to House Dayne, it's all a bit crackpot-ish;

• Ned himself, Blood of the First Men and brother of Benjen "Tinfoil Wolf" Stark
• Ashara Dayne - The Sword of The Morning's sister, a member of mysterious purple eyed House Dayne
• Howland Reed - Blood of the Marsh Kings (and possibly TCOTF). Patron of the God's Eye and eventually father to a greenseer
• Lyanna's Baby - The promised prince of ice and fire and son of Rhaegar - another bastion of kooky theories

If Rhaegar came up with said handshake you just know it would be one of those over baked, ulta-long ones, with bumps, clicks and slaps aplenty.

 

[SFDanny]

5 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

"In her thirties" and "past forty" don't overlap. That rules Lemore out as Ashara. You are assuming that Tyrion is off about Lemore's age to disregard that.

It doesn't work for me.

Last I looked 41 was past forty. But you are right, I don't put much stock in Tyrion's guess at Lemore's age. I don't because of the reasons I've already stated. First, because it is just a guess. Tyrion doesn't presume he has anything other than his assumption of what a woman "past forty" should look like. Second, this totally superficial basis for his guess doesn't take into account the effect of an outdoor life has on prematurely aging. Live on a riverboat for ten to fifteen years and you look different than a pampered handmaid at court. An analysis that misses these factors seem superficial as well.

[The Sleeper]

3 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Last I looked 41 was past forty. But you are right, I don't put much stock in Tyrion's guess at Lemore's age. I don't because of the reasons I've already stated. First, because it is just a guess. Tyrion doesn't presume he has anything other than his assumption of what a woman "past forty" should look like. Second, this totally superficial basis for his guess doesn't take into account the effect of an outdoor life has on prematurely aging. Live on a riverboat for ten to fifteen years and you look different than a pampered handmaid at court. An analysis that misses these factors seem superficial as well.

Forty-one is indeed past forty. So is fifty. In her thirties, however is not past forty.

I wonder what Tyrion would need to make a general estimate of her age, apart from the fact that he has functioning eyes and that he presumably has seen women past the age of forty before from all walks of life. From Lemore's end she is described as handsome, attractive, with glowing skin. That sounds like someone who is well preserved, not premeturely aged. Also have you seen her doing any manual labor on the boat?

But hey, if you want to disregard how she is described in the text, I want to play too. You can't really assume that Lemore's hair color is natural. She is presumably hiding her identity, right? Both Jon Connington and Aegon dye their hair to hide their identity. There is nothing to discount that she is not doing the same thing. For all we know she could be a blond or a redhead.

[cgrav]

Ages based on physical description alone require a grain of salt. Tyrion significantly underestimates Jon's age at the very start, and in Dance, Aegon's behavior doesn't exactly match Tyrion's estimate, either. In Bran's first chapter it's noted that the gray in Ned's beard makes him look older. 

I don't really buy the Lemore = Ashara theory, but I wouldn't use Tyrion's age estimate to rule it out. Guessing ages with adults is tough for anyone, and these moments aren't necessarily designed to tell us the person's age so much as other subtle information. It could be that GRRM wants us readers to think about the ages of these people for some reason, but needs to characters to overlook certain details for storytelling reasons.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

19 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Not for sure, but there is no mention of Aegon in any description of the tourney. Elia is probably still pregnant at the time. 

Sorry, I'm doing this without notes as I'm on the road waiting for tomorrow's eclipse. Most of what we know about the timing of Aegon's birth comes from just a few quotes. One is this one:

The vision of Dany at the House of the Undying, and a SSM that places Aegon's age at about one year old during the sack also figure into this. Because we see Aegon with Rhaegar and Elia in the vision and he is gone from them at the coming of the new year it is very likely Aegon's birth is before that date. The problem being Rhaenys is born in 280, and Elia is bedridden for something like six months after. It's at tight timeline and others may try to adjust it to fill all the clues in different ways. I'm just telling you the conclusion I've come to, and I don't think I can be off by more than a month. I hope that helps.

That does help, thank you. It does shorten the possible time Elia would have to be at King's Landing at all, and thus Ashara in KL too. Unless the maester from Dragonstone went along to Harrenhal, Elia would probably have gone right back home in case of problems with the pregnancy. 

So...we still know little more than Jon Snow.

12 hours ago, Leo of House Cartel said:

 

 A prophecy club, like Rhaegar's own Scooby-Gang? Can totally see something like this coming to light, especially in relation to what might have been said at Starfall before she jumped.

Consider the potential guest list on the day Ned delivered the sword forged from a fallen star to House Dayne, it's all a bit crackpot-ish;

• Ned himself, Blood of the First Men and brother of Benjen "Tinfoil Wolf" Stark
• Ashara Dayne - The Sword of The Morning's sister, a member of mysterious purple eyed House Dayne
• Howland Reed - Blood of the Marsh Kings (and possibly TCOTF). Patron of the God's Eye and eventually father to a greenseer
• Lyanna's Baby - The promised prince of ice and fire and son of Rhaegar - another bastion of kooky theories

If Rhaegar came up with said handshake you just know it would be one of those over baked, ulta-long ones, with bumps, clicks and slaps aplenty.

 

Indeed, a Targaryen Scooby-Gang.  

The Daynes were kings as well before Nymeria showed up. That certainly is a powerful kingsblood-ish conclave at Starfall. Good thing Mel wasn't there that day.

5 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

But hey, if you want to disregard how she is described in the text, I want to play too. You can't really assume that Lemore's hair color is natural. She is presumably hiding her identity, right? Both Jon Connington and Aegon dye their hair to hide their identity. There is nothing to discount that she is not doing the same thing. For all we know she could be a blond or a redhead.

Ooh, ooh! She could be a descendant of Aegon IV. Technically everybody in Westeros could be descended from Aegon IV.

[Sasha]

On 20/08/2017 at 6:36 PM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Your English is fine. I understood everything you said.

Thanks a lot !  

On 20/08/2017 at 6:36 PM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Elia would not have abandoned her children to disappear without them and we know from GRRM that Rhaenys at least was murdered by Ser Amory Lorch during the Sack of King's Landing. Gregor even admitted to having raped and murdered her, right before killing her brother. So Lemore is not likely to be Elia. While I think she could be persuaded to swap Aegon out, I don't see her leaving KL without Rhaenys.

Maybe Rhaenis is somewhere else. We know very little about Elia Martell. 

Gregor raped Elia, not the little girl, if I remember well. 

On 20/08/2017 at 6:36 PM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

That kind of loss would be something Tyrion would notice in her eyes as well, a sadness that appears without warning and then is gone almost before he sees it. If Elia was Septa Lemore, then she would seem way more invested in Young Griff because she would be on him to reclaim his father's birthright and to avenge his sister. Lemore is not just that emotionally involved enough for her to be Elia. Also Tyrion would be able to recognize her Martell looks and features. Even older, she would still look salty Dornish.

You're surely right. But I hope GRRM will tell us who she is. Because I feel something is wrong with her. 

But not Ashara. I don't buy this.

One weird thing is that Ashara is said to be fair haired and in another book, she is a dark haired girl. 

On 20/08/2017 at 6:36 PM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Benjen was 13 or 14 years old. That's a bit young to be fathering bastards unless you're Oberyn Martell, and Benjen clearly was not Oberyn Martell. I've never heard anything official about why Benjen joined the Night's Watch but he was interested in that during the tourney at Harrenhal. It could just be that as a third son he never expected to have much of a future, and as a Stark he knew the heroic history of the Watch and decided he wanted to be a hero too. After Ned got back from the war and Catelyn joined him with baby Robb, there was no reason to worry about the line dying out and Benjen was free to make his own way. So he made his own way north and took the black. 

It's very young to talk the black. But after all, Jon was young too. 

On 20/08/2017 at 6:36 PM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Barbrey Dustin told us about Brandon's activities. She was extremely serious, as she had given her maidenhead to Brandon and hoped to marry him. When she realized that wasn't going to happen she set her sights on Ned, but she couldn't get him either. 

Thanks a lot ! Do you remember to whom she was talking and where ?