The truth about Ashara Dayne's suicide

[SFDanny]

23 hours ago, Ygrain said:

That would be one book too late... If it was some information that Lemore would confide, then yes, but not such a visually obvious fact. Agree to disagree then.

Yes, agree to disagree on this point.

23 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Agreed, he is not fully convinced that Aegon is the real deal.

Yes, I think we agree here. Tyrion at least has his reservations about Aegon's tale.

23 hours ago, Ygrain said:

I wonder if this part is even covered - that depends on when exactly Varys started to plan the Aegon scheme. If he planned it well before the Sack, it would certainly be in his best interest to procure someone who could vouch for Aegon. If only after Aegon's murder, then he doesn't have such a person, and JonCon as Rhaegar's close friend is the next best thing, as a sort of "psychological" vouch - if the boy is good enough to convince his father's friend, he is probably the real deal, or something like that.

Let's look at the story as Young Griff tells it and as Tyrion has figured it out.

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"A true friend, our Lord Connington. He must be, to remain so fiercely loyal to the grandson of the king who took his lands and titles and sent him into exile. A pity about that . Elsewise Prince Rhaegar's friend might have been on hand when my father sacked King's Landing, to save Prince Rhaegar's precious little son from getting his royal brains dashed out against the wall."

The lad flushed. "That was not me. I told you. That was some tanner's son from Pisswater Bend whose mother died birthing him. His father sold him to Lord Varys for a jug of Arbor gold. He had other sons but had never tasted Arbor gold. Varys gave the Pisswater boy to my lady mother and carried me away."

"Aye." Tyron moved his elephants. "And when the pisswater prince was safely dead, the eunuch smuggled you across the narrow sea to his fat lord willing to call himself your father. It does make for a splendid story, and the singers will make much of your escape once you take the Iron Throne ... assuming that our fair Daenerys takes you for her consort." (ADwD 279-280) bold emphasis added.

There are three main points of chronology and identity in Varys's tale. 

• Connington is already in exile when the sack takes place.
• It is Varys who claims to have smuggled the baby Aegon across the Narrow sea to Pentos and into Illyrio's hands.
• This happens after Ser Gregor has already killed Elia and the boy thought to be Aegon.

This confirms Connington's own rough chronology that he lays out in his chapters.

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"You do not know these men, my lord. It has been a dozen years since you last rode with the Golden Company, and your old friend is dead." (Septa Lemore to Griff in ADwD 307)

Said in year 300, so Connington left the Golden company in approximately 288 AC.

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"Tywin Lannister himself could have done no more," he insisted one night to Blackhearts, during his first year of exile. (ADwD 805) 

Which places Lord Connington with the Golden Company in his first year of his exile in 283 AC.

Quote

Seventeen years had come and gone since the Battle of the Bells, yet the sound of bells ringing still tied a knot in his guts. (ADwD 307)

Again confirming that from the Year 300 in which the above is said that the Battle of the Bells takes place in about 283. The same year of the sack, but likely very early in the year and over six months before the sack of King's Landing in the same year.

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Jon Connington might have been one of those successors if his exile had gone otherwise. He had spent five years with the company, rising from the ranks to a place of honor at Toyne's right hand. (ADwD 312)

All of which adds up to Connington joining the Golden Company in his first year of exile in 283 and spending his next five years with the company when he joins Varys's plot and fakes his scandal and his death to take over the instruction of "Young Griff."

This eliminates Connington in any role of smuggling the child. It also eliminates the child from being with Connington in the Golden Company. It would be much better for the ability of the plotters to convince others, Prince Doran in particular, that Connington took the child with him into exile, but we know this isn't the story they tell themselves. Yet Connington is convinced the child is Rhaegar's and Elia's son. Who convinced him? Prince Rhaegar's enemy Varys the spider? Perhaps. But Varys has to know his own word means nothing to Doran. Illyrio's even less so.

So, Ygrain, I agree this part is not covered with the information we have. That's why I call it a huge plot hole. If this conspiracy relies on Connington to convince Prince Doran, it falls short. Even if it is true. For seventeen years the plot has been in the making, but we are to believe Varys did not see the need of this to be covered? I don't think so.

In fact, one of the first things Connington does upon landing is order Haldon Halfmaester to prepare a letter to Prince Doran announcing that his nephew is alive and has come home to claim his throne. Lord Jon understands the central role Dorne must play if they are to succeed.

 

23 hours ago, Ygrain said:

But do we have any indication that Lemore has been with Aegon since very young age? Wouldn't there be hints of, I don't know, a more motherly relationship?

No we don't. Unlike Lord Jon, Haldon, and Ser Duck, who we know were not with Young Griff when he was a babe, either in his flight from King's Landing or his time with Illyrio, we don't know when Septa Lemore becomes attached to this conspiracy. Lemore could be just s simple Septa, but then we know she is hiding herself from some discovery.

Quote

"Septa's robes scream of Westeros and might draw unwelcome eyes unto us." She turned back to Prince Aegon. "You are not the only one who must needs hide." (ADwD 279)  bold emphasis added.

This seems to eliminate the Septa Lemore = Septa Lemore option. It could be Lemore's secret does not include an ability to persuade anyone of Aegon's identity, but she seems the best bet given her hidden identity herself, and her unexplained Westerosi origins. If the "Lady" who has spent at least the last twelve years on a riverboat teaching a pretender or a rightful claimant to the Iron Throne his understanding of Westerosi religion doesn't have a secret reason to be so dedicated to Aegon's cause, I can't think of a more likely person to have a mystery that explains it.

Motherly? Perhaps not, but she seems the closest person to it that we know.

23 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Plus, I seem to vaguely recall something about instructing Aegon when he was old enough - that, of course, doesn't mean she hadn't been with him prior, but if I can find that bit, the more exact phrasing might reveal more. Also, is there some indication when it was that JonCon met Lemore?

If you find it, let me know. My understanding is that our story tells us that Aegon goes from King's Landing to Illyrio in Pentos and then later to the riverboat. Does Lemore get into this before the riverboat? I don't think we know, but we can't say she isn't there much earlier than Connington.

22 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Found the Lemore quote, but it is inconclusive:

He had grown fond of Lemore, but that did not mean he required her approval. Her task had been to instruct the prince in the doctrines of the Faith, and she had done that.

I would say that this implies that Lemore's task didn't go beyond teaching Aegon the doctrines of the Faith, which would rule her out both as a caretaker and a witness of his true origin, but that may be only due to JonCon's limited knowledge of Varys' scheme. However, it ties in with another problem: five years is not so long as to change Ashara's looks completely, shouldn't JonCon recognize her? Or shouldn't he at least recognize her for a noblewoman?

I think we are missing an important piece of information: how JonCon himself was convinced, by anything else but his own wishful thinking.

I think Connington knows who Lemore is. If she is Ashara, then he should recognize her right away. They were both part of the intimate circle of friends who surrounded both Rhaegar and Elia. The fact he knows she is a Lady and knows she has something to hide tells me he knows who she is even if she is not Ashara.

I absolutely agree we are missing important pieces of information. There is much, much more that we have to understand about this backstory for it to be believable as a plot to put Rhaegar's son on the Iron Throne, or to put a pliable pretender there.

23 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Oh, I didn't mean that she was banned from seeing Elia, only that with Aerys' paranoia, it might have been unwise to bring to KL someone who might have been suspected of "scheming" with her.

ETA: Also, one thing: if Varys does have someone who could vouch for Aegon, then why doesn't he send the person to Doran right away, why does Doran need to send Arianne to see for herself? Wouldn't it be better to secure Doran's support ASAP? And not even Doran's, for that matter? I mean, legendary Arthur Dayne's sister turns up and vouches for the boy, wouldn't it rally all the old Targaryen loyalists throughout Westeros? Yet this never happens, why?

To the banning part, I don't want to dismiss it as a possibility, because I think it is possible for all the reasons you point out. It another example of the many details we need more information about.

I think the answer is that the situation is no longer, and hasn't been for quite some time still under Varys's control. Both Aegon and Daenerys are making decisions that he didn't anticipate. Then there is the birth of the dragons that has thrown much of Varys's original plans out the window.

On top of that, Jon Connington is calling many of the strategic and tactical planning after the landing. There seems to be no attempt to coordinate with Varys or Illyrio. If I'm right about Ashara, then we will find out about her soon. She will want to prove Aegon's identity and try to contact Dorne herself in some way.

Lastly, just a word of thanks for going over this mystery with me. I appreciate all thinking about it.

[SFDanny]

16 hours ago, TMIFairy said:

I am not pushing a "JonCon with toddler fAegon in GC" theory.

What I am pushing is that in a mercenary company rug-rats and ankle-biters are plentiful. Hence "JonCon with toddler fAegon in GC" theories should not be dismissed on the grounds of "no children in a merc coy".

The illustrious poster Ygrain points to timing and other issues making a "JonCon with toddler fAegon in GC" theory not very probable.

 

Their own story has Aegon going to Illyrio in Pentos from King's Landing which seems to rule out this possibility.

[The Sleeper]

11 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Another possibility, is that Lemore is the Whent daughter who was the Queen of Love and Beauty at the onset of the Harrenhal tourney. This would put her in Rhaegar's inner circle, along with Connington.  It might also explain her expertise in the knowledge of the seven.  If Cat is any example of the devoutness of her maternal line, Cat's Whent mother may be the one who inspired Cat's own devoutness.

I thought about that. The Whents and their involvement with Rhaegar would make them pretty strong candidates for participating in a Targaryen restoration scheme. I even considered Walder Frey's fifth wife, that she might have been set aside due to infertility. However the appendix mention her as being dead. The wiki mentions the queen of love and duty being dead as well. It does not have a reference, however. I believe that it is due to Cat's line in Game about Lady Whent being the last of her line. Odds are that Martin had not delved so deeply yet into the family trees of the various houses. Yet there is a living Whent. A Wynafrei Whent, widow of Benfrey Frey.

There is the chance that Cat's statement might not be absolutely accurate. And that for a some reasons the queen of love and duty, has been disinherited. Say by being forced to join the clergy after Robert's rebellion, at the insistence of Hoster Tully who wanted to secure Harrenhal for his own brood.

[TMIFairy]

10 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

 I believe that it is due to Cat's line in Game about Lady Whent being the last of her line. Odds are that Martin had not delved so deeply yet into the family trees of the various houses. Yet there is a living Whent. A Wynafrei Whent, widow of Benfrey Frey.

Another possibility is that Wynafrei is from a side branch, with Minisa's descendants being ahead of Wynafrei's.

[The Sleeper]

18 minutes ago, TMIFairy said:

Another possibility is that Wynafrei is from a side branch, with Minisa's descendants being ahead of Wynafrei's.

That's what I figured. The point is that Shela Whent being the last of her line, has to be taken to mean that she has no direct heirs, not that she has no living kin.

I do believe that Martin making every Whent barren, except Minisa, intends for Harrenhal to go to the Tullys or Starks.

[Luddagain]

Ashara is not dead.

I do not think she is Septa Lemore. i am rather inclined to think she is one of the courtesans - probably the one who hides her face.

We know she is very beautiful.

[Luddagain]

Tmifairy

This has been addressed a thousand times.

Jon CANNOT be Brandon/Ashara's son given he is roughly the same age as Robb. We are told that he is two months younger than Robb at which time Brandon was rather dead by three months or so when Jon was conceived.  Even if you assume that Jon is a month older than Robb are we to believe that Ashara and Brandon were hitting it off in the Riverlands while Brandon and Cat were a courting. 

Harenhall was at least six months  before Ned's marriage  so Jon would need to be at lest 6 months older than Robb, which he clearly is not. You can fudge a toddler's age by a nonth or so but certainly NOT 6 months.Why would Ned hide the truth of Jon from Catelyn if this were the case  - She may have fancied herself in love with Brandon, but there was no need to say Jon was his. Why hide from Robert

[TMIFairy]

1 hour ago, Luddagain said:

1 - Even if you assume that Jon is a month older than Robb are we to believe that Ashara and Brandon were hitting it off in the Riverlands while Brandon and Cat were a courting. 

2 - Harenhall was at least six months  before Ned's marriage  so Jon would need to be at lest 6 months older than Robb, which he clearly is not. You can fudge a toddler's age by a nonth or so but certainly NOT 6 months.

3 - Why would Ned hide the truth of Jon from Catelyn if this were the case  - She may have fancied herself in love with Brandon, but there was no need to say Jon was his. Why hide from Robert

1 - yes.

2 - I'm in full agreement with you here. Two-three months is fully possible and that is all that is needed. Why do you think Ned did not go and pick up Catelyn and Robb at Riverrun? With the speed of wheelhouses he gave the babies several weeks (2 months?) more time to grow and increase the scope for fudging.

3 - For some reason, for Ned "it seemed a good idea at that time". And then he just kept on lying.

I would not rule out GRRM himself not knowing who Jon's mum had been when he wrote GoT

Just like in Star Wars and other long running sagas - the authors make up stuff as they move along

 

[jolie_x]

What if all through the story we've been told Jon Snow is the bastard son of Ned Stark and a mysterious other and Dany is the legitimate Targaryen daughter...only to discover that all along it's Jon who is the legitimate targaryen heir (R+L=J) and Dany is somehow the bastard daughter of Ashara Dayne? If Dany + Jon happens as it seems likely to we still have the Targaryen/Stark relationship but the other way round from what we thought? 

[Lady Blizzardborn]

13 hours ago, TMIFairy said:

1 - yes.

2 - I'm in full agreement with you here. Two-three months is fully possible and that is all that is needed. Why do you think Ned did not go and pick up Catelyn and Robb at Riverrun? With the speed of wheelhouses he gave the babies several weeks (2 months?) more time to grow and increase the scope for fudging.

3 - For some reason, for Ned "it seemed a good idea at that time". And then he just kept on lying.

I would not rule out GRRM himself not knowing who Jon's mum had been when he wrote GoT

Just like in Star Wars and other long running sagas - the authors make up stuff as they move along

 

No. He set that up as one of the main mysteries in the series from the first book so there is no way he doesn't know. He's just not telling the rest of us yet.

I'm flexible on the rest but will submit that 3 is entirely inconsistent with Ned's character. He has to at least think there's a very good reason to keep the truth from Cat for 15 years. Not telling her at first makes perfect sense. He doesn't even know her. But after more than a decade of marriage and 5 kids, no way he's lying just because. He thinks there's danger involved. Which means he thinks the kid is half-Targ. He doesn't necessarily have to BE half-Targ, but Ned thinking he is makes the most sense.

[TMIFairy]

2 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

 Which means he thinks the kid is half-Targ. He doesn't necessarily have to BE half-Targ, but Ned thinking he is makes the most sense.

This is a novel - for me - twist on the issue.

Does anybody in Westeros (and nearby Essos) know whose child Jon truly is?

LOL!

[Lady Blizzardborn]

8 minutes ago, TMIFairy said:

This is a novel - for me - twist on the issue.

Does anybody in Westeros (and nearby Essos) know whose child Jon truly is?

LOL!

Well, in theory Howland Reed knows. But does he really know?

[TMIFairy]

Now I have the Luke-Vader scene from TESB in my head:

"Jon! Did Howland Reed tell you about your father?"

"He told me enough!"

...

[hallapino]

My guess is that Arthur brought her to Dorne to witness the R+L wedding. She was then sent back to King's landing to announce the annulment and wedding and that Lyanna hadn't really been kidnapped or raped. But since she had a book due at the Starfall library she rushed home to return it and forgot about Kings Landing. When Ned showed up with Dawn and explained that Arthur, Brandon, her friend Elia and kids and 1/2 the kingdom was dead she went ooops.....