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bloodsteel bitterraven

What if the Mad King had succeeded in burning King's Landing?

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This is a "what-if" scenario I was thinking about lately, and I thought I would pose it as a question for everyone to discuss.  So I was curious, how do you think things would turn out if the Mad King had somehow succeeded in burning King's Landing, and in the fire, Tywin, Jaime Lannister, the Mountain, Varys, Pycelle, Elia Martell and her children all died.  Ned Stark arrives to find a city burned to the ground, while the Lannister army has lost a large number of soldiers.  How different would the history of Westeros be in this scenario?  Here are some thoughts I had, and I would like to hear what you think.

- Robert's would rule as King of Westeros from Storm's End, since King's Landing doesn't exist anymore.  He still gives Stannis Dragonstone, who doesn't consider it a slight, and their relationship is somewhat better.

- Dorne is not mad at Robert for the death of Elia, but at the Targaryens instead, and they never support Viserys.  There is a good chance that while Viserys and Daenerys escape Dragonstone, the fact that they remain alive is not known by many, since most people in Westeros assume they died in the fire along with their father.

- Since Tywin is dead, Tyrion will become the Lord of Casterly Rock.  Cersei will challenge him, but Kevan will make sure she does not succeed.  Tyrion, since no lord would want to give him his daughter, would probably end up marrying a commoner like Tysha.

- Robert on the other hand has no reason to marry Cersei, since with Tywin out of the picture, he doesn't need the Lannisters as much.  Jon Arryn will convince him to marry Selyse Florent, but he will instead marry Delena Florent.  While he's still unfaithful, Queen Delena doesn't become as bitter as Cersei and when her son Edric is a little older, Robert will eventually abdicate and become a sellsword in Essos where he is killed (he did tell Ned that the only reason he hadn't done that already was because he couldn't imagine Joffrey on the throne).  Edric will become King eventually (or not?).

- Kevan will try to marry Cersei to Stannis, Lord of Dragonstone, but she refuses.  She will eventually marry Oberyn Martell, who is not bitter towards the Lannisters in this version of history, and instead joins Robert's small council.  Storm's End is now the center of activity in the kingdom.  Jon Arryn is still the Hand, Littlefinger, Oberyn Martell (with Cersei on his side), Stannis and Kevan Lannister are in the small council.

- The Ironborn rebellion still takes place and is unsuccessful.  Everything else remains pretty much the same.  The first major event that might change history significantly would be Robert leaving Westeros to become a sellsword.  Does everyone accept Edric as the new King?  How does the balance of power change?  Do the Florents have more influence?  Jon Arryn and Stannis would almost certainly not leave Storm's End in this scenario, so Lysa doesn't poison her husband and they stay there too.

- As for the Targaryen kids, my guess is that Daenerys is still married to Khal Drogo, but one major difference is that Jorah Mormont is not a spy.

Any thoughts?  I'd like to hear what everyone else thinks.

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Interesting post.

Viserys and Dany would have a pretty much same story line. Dany will still get dragons and her army. 

I guess Robert would still marry Cersei because there is no better bride around. Cersei is the only available daughter of great house and House Lannister is still very rich. Robert would need this marriage to make sure Westerlands is on his side and he needs money too. House Florent is not a proper match for King Robert. (Honestly I felt Robert made Stannis marry Selyse to slight him since Selyse is not from a major house and she is not even the daughter of Lord Florent and she is not beautiful either).

Robert would still be a shitty husband since he can not have Lyanna Stark. But since there is no Jaime, Cersei would probably have affairs with other men such as Lancel or Aurane Waters. So she might still have three children with other men. 

Then Bran will still be thrown out of tower, but this time Cersei was with another man. 

Then Ned will do same thing and die eventually. War of five kings will still happen. But since Tywin was not there, Tyrion will be leader of Lannister army. He would not make a red wedding and he can make some peace with Robb. Then house Stark will go back to North. But Joffery will still be killed because of lady Olenna. Myrcella will not need to go to Dorne because Lannister did not kill Elia and Dorne is OK with them. Even she goes to make allies with Dorne, she will not be killed by somebody in Dorne.  

Since house stark is still fine and no Bolton issue, then jon will stay in wall. 

Cersei and Margarey will have same story line. But Myrcella is alive so she might become queen.

Now when Dany invaded westeros, she will face Queen Myrcella. 

 

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Wasn't Edard stark in the city when jamie killed roseart? Because he and his men were right behind the lanasters who were about to enter the keep. If this is the case he would have died with all of his men in the fire.

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1 hour ago, bloodsteel bitterraven said:

This is a "what-if" scenario I was thinking about lately, and I thought I would pose it as a question for everyone to discuss.  So I was curious, how do you think things would turn out if the Mad King had somehow succeeded in burning King's Landing, and in the fire, Tywin, Jaime Lannister, the Mountain, Varys, Pycelle, Elia Martell and her children all died.  Ned Stark arrives to find a city burned to the ground, while the Lannister army has lost a large number of soldiers.  How different would the history of Westeros be in this scenario?  Here are some thoughts I had, and I would like to hear what you think.

- Robert's would rule as King of Westeros from Storm's End, since King's Landing doesn't exist anymore.  He still gives Stannis Dragonstone, who doesn't consider it a slight, and their relationship is somewhat better.

- Dorne is not mad at Robert for the death of Elia, but at the Targaryens instead, and they never support Viserys.  There is a good chance that while Viserys and Daenerys escape Dragonstone, the fact that they remain alive is not known by many, since most people in Westeros assume they died in the fire along with their father.

- Since Tywin is dead, Tyrion will become the Lord of Casterly Rock.  Cersei will challenge him, but Kevan will make sure she does not succeed.  Tyrion, since no lord would want to give him his daughter, would probably end up marrying a commoner like Tysha.

- Robert on the other hand has no reason to marry Cersei, since with Tywin out of the picture, he doesn't need the Lannisters as much.  Jon Arryn will convince him to marry Selyse Florent, but he will instead marry Delena Florent.  While he's still unfaithful, Queen Delena doesn't become as bitter as Cersei and when her son Edric is a little older, Robert will eventually abdicate and become a sellsword in Essos where he is killed (he did tell Ned that the only reason he hadn't done that already was because he couldn't imagine Joffrey on the throne).  Edric will become King eventually (or not?).

- Kevan will try to marry Cersei to Stannis, Lord of Dragonstone, but she refuses.  She will eventually marry Oberyn Martell, who is not bitter towards the Lannisters in this version of history, and instead joins Robert's small council.  Storm's End is now the center of activity in the kingdom.  Jon Arryn is still the Hand, Littlefinger, Oberyn Martell (with Cersei on his side), Stannis and Kevan Lannister are in the small council.

- The Ironborn rebellion still takes place and is unsuccessful.  Everything else remains pretty much the same.  The first major event that might change history significantly would be Robert leaving Westeros to become a sellsword.  Does everyone accept Edric as the new King?  How does the balance of power change?  Do the Florents have more influence?  Jon Arryn and Stannis would almost certainly not leave Storm's End in this scenario, so Lysa doesn't poison her husband and they stay there too.

- As for the Targaryen kids, my guess is that Daenerys is still married to Khal Drogo, but one major difference is that Jorah Mormont is not a spy.

Any thoughts?  I'd like to hear what everyone else thinks.

7

No offense but it feels like you have a lot of happy endings in here. 

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- Robert's would rule as King of Westeros from Storm's End, since King's Landing doesn't exist anymore.  He still gives Stannis Dragonstone, who doesn't consider it a slight, and their relationship is somewhat better.

1

He could rebuild Kings landing, or he would likely need to rule from Oldtown. Sure it could be Storms end but it's not really the ideal place. Even when Aegon invaded everyone thought he would rule from old town except he had Kings landing built. Stannis and Robert hated each other anyway, he gave him Dragon Stone as an insult, he would have found another way, probably giving him the burned remains of Kings landing fi he did choose Storms landing as his seat.   

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- Dorne is not mad at Robert for the death of Elia, but at the Targaryens instead, and they never support Viserys.  There is a good chance that while Viserys and Daenerys escape Dragonstone, the fact that they remain alive is not known by many, since most people in Westeros assume they died in the fire along with their father

1

Except Roberts Rebellion was the catalyst for Elias death. SHe was never in danger until that point. In fact, if you believe the evidence Raehgar was going to peacefully remove his father from the throne and Jon Arryn escalated it all. Dorne still holds them responsible, especially Oberyn. You can directly lay the death of Elia and her children at the hands of Robert no matter the outcome. And everyone knows that Dany was born on dragon stone, no one thought they were in Kings landing. 

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- Since Tywin is dead, Tyrion will become the Lord of Casterly Rock.  Cersei will challenge him, but Kevan will make sure she does not succeed.  Tyrion, since no lord would want to give him his daughter, would probably end up marrying a commoner like Tysha.

 

Tyrion likely becomes Lord of Castelry Rock unless Robert names someone else as punishment for not rallying to him from the beginning. but Tyrion doesn't marry a commoner, he would marry someone of Noble birth close to the Starks or Baratheons.  

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- Robert on the other hand has no reason to marry Cersei, since with Tywin out of the picture, he doesn't need the Lannisters as much.  Jon Arryn will convince him to marry Selyse Florent, but he will instead marry Delena Florent.  While he's still unfaithful, Queen Delena doesn't become as bitter as Cersei and when her son Edric is a little older, Robert will eventually abdicate and become a sellsword in Essos where he is killed (he did tell Ned that the only reason he hadn't done that already was because he couldn't imagine Joffrey on the throne).  Edric will become King eventually (or not?).

3

Robert still marries Cersei. She's really the only one of age worthy of the marriage and they still need Casterly Rock. The North and Riverlands were bound by marriage, The vale the North and Stormlands were bound by Ned, Robert and Jon. they still have to get Casteryl Rock and the best way is marriage. I think the difference is Cersei doesn't have the control she had with Tywin dead. Jon made concessions to Tywin, not Cersei. You then bring in the Reach by betroth Margery to Robb and interestingly enough, possibly Dany to Roberts first borne. Dorne is still angry but will be nullified still be Jon Arryn. 

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- Kevan will try to marry Cersei to Stannis, Lord of Dragonstone, but she refuses.  She will eventually marry Oberyn Martell, who is not bitter towards the Lannisters in this version of history, and instead joins Robert's small council.  Storm's End is now the center of activity in the kingdom.  Jon Arryn is still the Hand, Littlefinger, Oberyn Martell (with Cersei on his side), Stannis and Kevan Lannister are in the small council.

2

see above. 

Quote

- The Ironborn rebellion still takes place and is unsuccessful.  Everything else remains pretty much the same.  The first major event that might change history significantly would be Robert leaving Westeros to become a sellsword.  Does everyone accept Edric as the new King?  How does the balance of power change?  Do the Florents have more influence?  Jon Arryn and Stannis would almost certainly not leave Storm's End in this scenario, so Lysa doesn't poison her husband and they stay there too.

 

 Littlefinger is still at play, he is responsible for Arryns death, not Cersei. Chaos is a latter, he will find a way to create it. You also leave out Ifanother possible catalyst, Jon Snow. 

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9 minutes ago, Sensenmenn said:

Wasn't Edard stark in the city when jamie killed roseart? Because he and his men were right behind the lanasters who were about to enter the keep. If this is the case he would have died with all of his men in the fire.

I think Jamie killed Aerys right as Eddard was arriving outside Kings Landing.  It's pretty likely that Eddard wouldv'e been fine although he may have arrived in time to witness the explosions.

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8 minutes ago, Sensenmenn said:

Wasn't Edard stark in the city when jamie killed roseart? Because he and his men were right behind the lanasters who were about to enter the keep. If this is the case he would have died with all of his men in the fire.

Ned was on his way to Kings landing. Robert was seriously wounded so Ned took the vangaurd. Tywin was worried because if Ned made it into the city it would likely come to a battle between the two because a that Point Ned would still think Tywin loyal to Aerys.I believe Ned actually took Tywin by surprise because of how fast he marched on Kings landing. It was well after the sacking that Ned found Jaime on the throne. Not to mention Ned was honorable, the Lannisters were hated after that sacking, Ned would have ordered his men to gain control, including killing the Lannister army to do it.   

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23 minutes ago, Sensenmenn said:

Wasn't Edard stark in the city when jamie killed roseart? Because he and his men were right behind the lanasters who were about to enter the keep. If this is the case he would have died with all of his men in the fire.

No, Jaime was sitting on the Iron Throne when Ned arrived.

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16 minutes ago, lyannaisalive said:

 

 Littlefinger is still at play, he is responsible for Arryns death, not Cersei. Chaos is a latter, he will find a way to create it. You also leave out Ifanother possible catalyst, Jon Snow. 

Lisa did it because Jon was sending her to the Vale.  Where did I say that Cersei was involved?  Please, if you want to have a proper conversation, don't insult me.

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3 hours ago, bloodsteel bitterraven said:

This is a "what-if" scenario I was thinking about lately, and I thought I would pose it as a question for everyone to discuss.  So I was curious, how do you think things would turn out if the Mad King had somehow succeeded in burning King's Landing, and in the fire, Tywin, Jaime Lannister, the Mountain, Varys, Pycelle, Elia Martell and her children all died.  Ned Stark arrives to find a city burned to the ground, while the Lannister army has lost a large number of soldiers.  How different would the history of Westeros be in this scenario?  Here are some thoughts I had, and I would like to hear what you think.

 

I would make a case for there not being a United Seven Kingdoms (U7K for short) any more. The source and symbol of Central Royal power and wealth is gone. I believe that the chances of breakup imediatelly - or very soon afterwards - are very high. But I will humour you and assume that the 7K continues to exist.

- Robert's would rule as King of Westeros from Storm's End, since King's Landing doesn't exist anymore.  

Storm's End is poorly located. And has no U&k symbolism. KL was chosen for its excellent, central location. The best locations for a capital are either at the mouth/esturay of the Blackwater Rush or the Trident. Hence, with KL gone, Duskendale would be "it" - its location is not much worse than KL's. The other candidates - Harrenhall, Miadenpool, Saltpans - are in Riverlands' territory.

Robert does not have the money nor patience nor skill to build a new city from scratch.

- He still gives Stannis Dragonstone, who doesn't consider it a slight, and their relationship is somewhat better.
Stannis and Dragonstone - why not?

- Dorne is not mad at Robert for the death of Elia, but at the Targaryens instead, and they never support Viserys.  

I agree.

- Since Tywin is dead, Tyrion will become the Lord of Casterly Rock.  Cersei will challenge him, but Kevan will make sure she does not succeed.  

Your assumption is that Kevan does not die in KL. I agree that this probably saves Tyrion's life as oherwise Cersei would had murdered him 

- Tyrion, since no lord would want to give him his daughter, would probably end up marrying a commoner like Tysha.

Every Lord will trhow a daughter or two at him.

- Robert on the other hand has no reason to marry Cersei, since with Tywin out of the picture, he doesn't need the Lannisters as much.  

Yes, no Lannister marriage for Robert.

- Jon Arryn will convince him to marry Selyse Florent, but he will instead marry Delena Florent.  

Meh, no. One of Mace Tyrel's sisters should be available and are a better match. The Reach is the most powerful of the U7K, remember?

While he's still unfaithful, Queen Delena doesn't become as bitter as Cersei and when her son Edric is a little older, Robert will eventually abdicate and become a sellsword in Essos where he is killed (he did tell Ned that the only reason he hadn't done that already was because he couldn't imagine Joffrey on the throne).  Edric will become King eventually (or not?).

With all due respect IMO you are in lala land. Too many divergences by this point. And IMO Robert was just bullshiting over his cups.

- Kevan will try to marry Cersei to Stannis, Lord of Dragonstone, but she refuses.  She will eventually marry Oberyn Martell, who is not bitter towards the Lannisters in this version of history, and instead joins Robert's small council.  Storm's End is now the center of activity in the kingdom.  Jon Arryn is still the Hand, Littlefinger, Oberyn Martell (with Cersei on his side), Stannis and Kevan Lannister are in the small council.

Kevan would try to marry Cersei to Robert. Robert is the best match a girl (her House) can make, after all. Stannis - regardless of Lord of Dragonstone or the Stormlands is a good match too and gets her as far away from Casterly Rock as possible. Sadly Willas or Edmure are too young for her. However, a powerful Westerlands, Reach or Riverlands Lord are also possibilities. Oberyn - maybe ...

 

- As for the Targaryen kids, my guess is that Daenerys is still married to Khal Drogo, but one major difference is that Jorah Mormont is not a spy.

No, IMO there would be no Khal Drogo marriage. There is no Varys here so there is no setting up of Targ and/or Blackfyre pretenders to the Iron Throne. There is no Iron Throne anymore, Illyrio has no partner with insider Westerosi knowledge for his plotting. I doubt that he would take in Viserys and Daenarys at all.

Nevertheless, I support the idea that seeing the blazing ruin of KL and the Red Keep some empty-headed windbag (I'm looking at you, Greatjon Umber) will start shouting "King in the North!", "King of the Hills and Rivers!" or "King in the Vale!" at Ned, Hoster or Jon.

 

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Would the wildfire have a chance of spreading up towards the God's Eye if enough caches went off across the whole city? The Blackwater inferno during ACOK seemed to be contained to a degree by the water of the Rush and the natural terrain of the surrounding area. I assume Aerys would have had a higher number of jars planted than the quantity Tyrion used, so the resulting explosions would be almighty, and the subsequent fire would be a far greater beast than the one seen during The Battle of Blackwater.

Once it takes fire, the substance will burn fiercely until it is no more. More, it will seep into cloth, wood, leather, even steel, so they take fire as well.[1]

 Hallyne to Tyrion Lannister

If the surrounding countryside was dry enough then i could certainly see the blaze spreading throughout the Kingswood, and perhaps towards the Reach and Riverlands to a varying degrees.

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Posted (edited)

If the firestorm was hot enough then maybe the northern part of the Kingswood could catch fire. But the river/estuary is quite wide at this point. So not very likely.

The Gods Eye is too far away and upstream to be affected.

Firestorm or not, I do not expect there to be much (if any) destruction a few kilometers away from KL's city walls.

Edited by TMIFairy

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15 hours ago, bloodsteel bitterraven said:

Any thoughts?  I'd like to hear what everyone else thinks.

We would have a completely different book lacking so many of the characters that make the story go. 

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Well for one Thing the Iron born would see this as a way to reave again no Iron throne no reason to listen to orders from them. I honestly see alot of chaos coming. Hell the Northerns may even want to tell ned to become King (which he would decline). Cersi would start a civil war to win Casterly Rock and blame tyrion for steal her birth right (maybe even blame him for jamie's death too).

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I'd give it about a fifty-fifty chance for the Seven Kingdoms to remain Seven Kingdoms and not break apart.

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15 hours ago, TMIFairy said:

If the firestorm was hot enough then maybe the northern part of the Kingswood could catch fire. But the river/estuary is quite wide at this point. So not very likely.

The Gods Eye is too far away and upstream to be affected.

Firestorm or not, I do not expect there to be much (if any) destruction a few kilometers away from KL's city walls.

Fair point, I imagine the Red Keep's walls could help contain the blaze too. This may have been Aerys intention - turn the city into a big cauldron.

 

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The Red Keep - or rather Aegon's Hill it is located on top off - indeed will help to contain the fire in KL.

 

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A-    Tywin, Jamie and co will die. Since Kevan is Tywin’s no 2 then I expect he will be on that list too. Varys will survive the ordeal (the man knows every hole in KL) but his power will be greatly diminished. No one will trust the last surviving member of Aerys small council and soon enough he will be blamed for it (foreigner, eunuch and all)

B-    Robert will switch the capital city to Storm’s end. It’s the Baratheon ancestral home after all. He will add most of the crownlands to the Stormlands. The rest will be given to Stannis who will be tasked to rebuild KL without of course being given the funds to do such a thing. That might force Stannis to marry within a rich family (possibly a Frey girl) for her generous dowry.

C-    Cersei is an absolute genius in crisis management. With Daddy gone she will move quickly to consolidate her power over CR. She will convince someone to assassinate Tyrion and baby Lancel . After that is sorted she will also open negotiations with the crown regarding her right to rule the Westerlands. Jon Arryn will probably step in her favour by giving her a choice. She can either marry the king who will then defend her right to CR or else everything will go to someone else. Cersei will probably choose the former 

D-    Jon Arryn will probably ask Dorna Swyft to move to Storm’s end as Cersei’s lady in waiting. That would keep Kevan under check.
 

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