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FylkirKarl

What If?: Tywin dies during Reyne-Tarbeck Revolt

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This is a what if that I've been thinking of for a while, and it basically comes down to what would the happen to both House Lannister, and the rest of the realm if Tywin Lannister died during the Reyne-Tarbeck revolt, more likely during Roger Reyne's charge against the Lannister forces stationed at Tarbeck hall. I'll assume that Tywin was killed either by footmen, cavalryman, an archer, or even Roger Reyne himself either during Roger's initial surprise charge or during Tywin's counter attack. I'll assume that due to the Lannisters still having more numbers, and more than 1 Lannister there (Kevan, Tygett etc) that they would of rallied, and Roger Reyne would of still suffered his injury. From here, Kevan assumes the Lordship of Casterly Rock and Warden of the West as Cersei/Jaime were not born yet. I believe the Reyne's would still be sieged, but I don't believe Kevan had the ruthless and cunning that his brother Tywin had, so I doubt that Kevan would drown/kill the rest of the Reyne's, perhaps Roger being executed for being involved in the death of his Lord, but Roger's younger brother succeeding him as it seems that Roger had no heir. From here we'll advance to Robert's Rebellion as nothing big of note seems to happen between House Lannister and the rest of the realms since this. I believe in the dutiful nature of Kevan and the lack of animosity between Tywin and Aerys over the Jaime Kingsguard / Cersei Queen incident that he would support the crown or at the least, Rhaegar like many in the Reach, Dorne, Stormlands, Vale, and Riverlands did. From here, it seems more difficult to suspect the outcome of Robert's Rebellion as this adds the strength of the Westerlands to Crown's forces, but the rebels may have a different strategy to deal with this. Whether that be the Stormlands deciding to endure a siege as their surrounded by the entirety of the Crown's forces with the Crownlands to the North, Dorne to the South, Reach and Westerlands to the west and the Sea to the East. So I doubt Robert will attempt to march anywhere after dealing with the rebel Stormlanders at Summerhall. From here, it becomes hazy as there are two different outcomes possible: the Loyalists winning or the Rebels winning. If the Rebels win, and with no clear great house bride for Robert provided he survives, he would have to marry a lady from a lesser house such as the Reyne's or the Hightowers as a threat to the respective great houses that if they rebel, the house their married into will replace them. The other outcome is the Royalists winning in which Robert would most likely dead, Ned would most likely be dead unless Rhaegar intervenes, Tully would most likely be dead with Edmure Tully being a hostage to Lannister, Tyrell, Martell etc, and Jon Arryn would most likely be executed with the Arryns of Gulltown, Royces, or nephews if they survive becoming the great house of the Vale. Just a fun little what if, but what do you guys think of this? Being at work is boring, and gives you a lot to think about if your an ASOIAF fan.

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Kevan would take the lead as the family patriarch and the story would continue as written 

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8 hours ago, FylkirKarl said:

This is a what if that I've been thinking of for a while, and it basically comes down to what would the happen to both House Lannister, and the rest of the realm if Tywin Lannister died during the Reyne-Tarbeck revolt, more likely during Roger Reyne's charge against the Lannister forces stationed at Tarbeck hall. I'll assume that Tywin was killed either by footmen, cavalryman, an archer, or even Roger Reyne himself either during Roger's initial surprise charge or during Tywin's counter attack. I'll assume that due to the Lannisters still having more numbers, and more than 1 Lannister there (Kevan, Tygett etc) that they would of rallied, and Roger Reyne would of still suffered his injury.

To say the least I think that events would unfold differently. To start with if Tywin died then the Lannisters would have lost their commander and its really not impossible that they would have either broken or failed to pursue the Reynes. In either case it would have given the Reynes the chance to gather more support and more Houses would be hesistent to join the Lannisters seeing how the Lannister heir was cut down by the Reynes.

8 hours ago, FylkirKarl said:

From here, Kevan assumes the Lordship of Casterly Rock and Warden of the West as Cersei/Jaime were not born yet. I believe the Reyne's would still be sieged, but I don't believe Kevan had the ruthless and cunning that his brother Tywin had, so I doubt that Kevan would drown/kill the rest of the Reyne's, perhaps Roger being executed for being involved in the death of his Lord, but Roger's younger brother succeeding him as it seems that Roger had no heir.

Not really. Tytos would still be lord and given Tytos earlier actions would probably have sought to come to terms with the Reynes rather than fight them, further undermining the Lannisters. Odds are thus that either the Westerlands would be ravaged by a full blown civil war or Castamere would have been besieged and then the siege lifted at Tytos command and pardons given to the Reynes. Leaving the Reynes free to cause more havoc and undermine the evidently weakling Lannisters who have just lost their best hope for the future.

And if it comes to civil war it could really go either way and it could end up with the Reynes destroying the Lannisters.

8 hours ago, FylkirKarl said:

From here we'll advance to Robert's Rebellion as nothing big of note seems to happen between House Lannister and the rest of the realms since this. I believe in the dutiful nature of Kevan and the lack of animosity between Tywin and Aerys over the Jaime Kingsguard / Cersei Queen incident that he would support the crown or at the least, Rhaegar like many in the Reach, Dorne, Stormlands, Vale, and Riverlands did. From here, it seems more difficult to suspect the outcome of Robert's Rebellion as this adds the strength of the Westerlands to Crown's forces, but the rebels may have a different strategy to deal with this. Whether that be the Stormlands deciding to endure a siege as their surrounded by the entirety of the Crown's forces with the Crownlands to the North, Dorne to the South, Reach and Westerlands to the west and the Sea to the East. So I doubt Robert will attempt to march anywhere after dealing with the rebel Stormlanders at Summerhall.

The Lannisters may or may not have joined the crown, but without a Lannister hostage in King's Landing the Lannisters may also have joined the rebels for all we know. But in regards to Robert I am fairly sure that he would still have struck out into the Reach. My theory is that given how divided the Reach has been historically and their historical support of the Blackfyres, Robert was trying to cash in on that and gather Reach lords to him as a new macho hero come to lead them to victory against a non-martial king, kind of like Daemon Blackfyre back in the day. To sitt still and be beiseged don't at all sound like Robert.

8 hours ago, FylkirKarl said:

From here, it becomes hazy as there are two different outcomes possible: the Loyalists winning or the Rebels winning. If the Rebels win, and with no clear great house bride for Robert provided he survives, he would have to marry a lady from a lesser house such as the Reyne's or the Hightowers as a threat to the respective great houses that if they rebel, the house their married into will replace them. The other outcome is the Royalists winning in which Robert would most likely dead, Ned would most likely be dead unless Rhaegar intervenes, Tully would most likely be dead with Edmure Tully being a hostage to Lannister, Tyrell, Martell etc, and Jon Arryn would most likely be executed with the Arryns of Gulltown, Royces, or nephews if they survive becoming the great house of the Vale. Just a fun little what if, but what do you guys think of this? Being at work is boring, and gives you a lot to think about if your an ASOIAF fan.

Depends on which Targaryen king imposes terms. If its Aerys then its a full-blown massacre of all rebels and perhaps also including Rhaegar's friends. While if its King Rhaegar then it would more likely be like after the Blackfyre Rebellion with harsh but reasonable punishments.

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Kevan becomes the new family head. Don't know if he would had followed the same path as Tywin did by becoming hand of the king etc. 

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1 hour ago, LordImp said:

Kevan becomes the new family head. Don't know if he would had followed the same path as Tywin did by becoming hand of the king etc. 

Kevan must still wait for Tytos to die and the Lannisters will thus need to survive the Reynes under Tytos. That's really not certain at all.

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8 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Kevan would take the lead as the family patriarch and the story would continue as written 

I doubt Kevan sacks KL. I bet he'd stay put

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2 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

Kevan must still wait for Tytos to die and the Lannisters will thus need to survive the Reynes under Tytos. That's really not certain at all.

No it's not unless Kevan becomes as ruthless as Tywin , which is unlikely. 

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Posted (edited)

I support the view that with Tywin dead the Westerlands could well be torn apart by a civil of its own during Robert's Rebellion.

However, I wonder if maybe Jahaerys would intervene after Tywin's death? With Tytos evidently not being capable of ruling the Westerlands the Crown could step in?

Or, once Jahaerys is dead and Aerys takes over, Aerys - unhappy that his childhood friend had been killed by a rebel Lord, takes a dim view of events in the West and it is him who brings the Crown into the goings on there?

Lots of butterflies ... there are twenty years between the Reyn's and Talbeck's Affair and Robert's Rebellion.

Heck, there might be no Robert's Rebellion at all, if it is true that Tywin was involved in the Lords' conspiracy leading to the tournament at Harrenhall. There are theories that he had co-funded the event, and that he was in the whole business of tying Great Lords by marriage - with a Lysa + Jaime match.

Edited by TMIFairy

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I can see 2 possibilities. Either the crown intervenes or some "neigbours" of Westerlands like IB, Rivermen and Reachmen start getting ideas. Or they start raiding West or even taking parts of it as their own. For instance Rivermen try to conquest Golden Tooth. The Reach Crakehall and Silverhill and IB whatever they can.

So it is even possible that Westeros will have another civil war and if that happens people outside of Westeros will start to have their own ideas how to use that situation for their own interests...

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The rebellion was engineering by Tywin who forced the Tarbecks-Reynes to rebel. With Tywin dead, Tytos would probably push for peace backed by his new heir Kevan who was knighted by Lord Roger Reyne.

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I don't think we can really make any accurate predictions for much more than the duration of the Tarbeck-Reyne rebellion and its immediate aftermath, as Tywin had such a significant, probably the most significant, role in this the history of Westeros from that rebellion until the beginning of the books, so its possible that pretty much everything could had changed.

With regards the rebellion if the only significant change in the battle between Lannister forces and Reynes was Tywin's dead, then I think the Reynes would had probably survived their rebellion though seriously weakened. I don't think Kevan, who presumably would had taken control, would had been ruthless nor ingenious enough to use a river to deal with all the Reynes in the way Tywin did. Thus Tytos would had most likely had enough time to intervene but I doubt he would had let the Reynes with a slap on the wrist after they had killed his heir while in rebellion, and at this point they would had already lost the rebellion on the field. Thus I think their threat in Westerlands would had been greatly weakened, though with Tytos' weak rule the situation in the west would had hardly grown stable but I don't think there was imminent threat of a rebellion either, especially if Kevan had proven himself after Tywin died. Kevan himself would probably not be quite as ambitious ruler as Tywin after Tytos' dead so who knows what he would do but I do think he had it in him to be much better than his father at the very least.

Although I do see the possibility of Tywin's death collapsing Lannisters, one must remember he did not have the reputation back then as he did later on and thus the morale from his loss might not had been that bad if Kevan pulled through.

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On 8/17/2017 at 9:52 AM, LionoftheWest said:

Kevan must still wait for Tytos to die and the Lannisters will thus need to survive the Reynes under Tytos. That's really not certain at all.

I thought It states the sons of Tytos handled the war, while I have no doubt Tywin was the head architect, the others are still involved and I assumed play key roles. Especially kevan and Tygett. Without Tywin I'm sure it wouldn't have been as brutal or clean a victory, but I think they would have proven compentent replacements. 

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7 hours ago, averde said:

I thought It states the sons of Tytos handled the war, while I have no doubt Tywin was the head architect, the others are still involved and I assumed play key roles. Especially kevan and Tygett. Without Tywin I'm sure it wouldn't have been as brutal or clean a victory, but I think they would have proven compentent replacements. 

True that. The problem I see is that from the descriptions it seems like Castamere can neither be taken by storm of siege before Tytos would give a pardon. Thus I don't see how they could have broken the Reynes, who were in no way interested in surrender, before they would have to call off the siege. From my perspective it isn't just someone to give orders, but someone to defy Lord Tytos to act on their own and have people follow in in that course. From what I've seen Kevan don't seem to be willful enough and I don't know enough about Tygett to tell if he would be willful enough to take Tywin's place.

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4 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

True that. The problem I see is that from the descriptions it seems like Castamere can neither be taken by storm of siege before Tytos would give a pardon. Thus I don't see how they could have broken the Reynes, who were in no way interested in surrender, before they would have to call off the siege. From my perspective it isn't just someone to give orders, but someone to defy Lord Tytos to act on their own and have people follow in in that course. From what I've seen Kevan don't seem to be willful enough and I don't know enough about Tygett to tell if he would be willful enough to take Tywin's place.

Would make for a fascinating dynamic if Tygett proved to be the ambitious, but more martial than gifted, man teamed with Diet Tywin in Kevan. 

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On 2017-08-22 at 9:32 PM, averde said:

Would make for a fascinating dynamic if Tygett proved to be the ambitious, but more martial than gifted, man teamed with Diet Tywin in Kevan. 

Yeah, that would have been something to see.

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If the Reyne/Tarbeck rebellion still ends with them defeated/dead via less malicious means, the realm at large is better for it. Aerys is probably killed during the Darklynn rebellion, so Rhaegar takes the throne earlier.

The more needless done, brutal acts of the series as we know it don't happen, as Kevan doesn't appear to have Tywins taste for blood on his tongue.

The rape and murder of Elia along with her children is likely avoided at the very least.

 

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