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A guide to solving prophecy and the solution to the girl in grey.


rustythesmith

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2 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

I'm not confident GRRM will finish the books at all.  But I'm not sure I see the point of constantly reminding folks of the fact.  

Metaphorical interpretations are always a possibility.  But they open up an almost infinite array of possibilities, which ends up leaving us floundering in the dark.  It is (usually) not a good line of investigation and discussion for much the same reason that assuming the prophesy is meaningless is not a good line for investigation and discussion.

In any event, there are enough specific details, in terms of the lake and the environs, that I am very tempted to conclude that a literal event is being described.  

But that is sort of the point. Prophecies are intentionally vague and mostly not falsifiable. I don't think it is pointless to discuss this at all. It leads to an obvious and potentially important question: if the visions do not represent an unchangeable future, then who is sending these visions and why? For instance, I think the purpose of the grey girl vision was to get Jon to allow Mance to go south. And I think the vision was sent by the old gods (see my grand theory linked in my signature for details on that), who wanted Jon to get killed by his men. Letting Mance go was a key factor in his stabbing. The vision has already been obviously fulfilled by Alys, but letting Mel and Jon believe it was Arya served a greater purpose.

All that said, I do think it is worth questioning if the vision was actually Alys, but I think it is quite clear that it was. Any other answer is sort of pointless to the narrative, because the characters think the vision has been fulfilled.

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2 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

@rustythesmith

Ok, but how confident are you that GRRM himself is following this convention? Again I ask, how do you reconcile your logic with the vision of Bran not enjoying his dinner? I don't think that particular prophecy fulfills your established criteria.

From a puzzle solving or gaming perspective, I would chase the most likely scenario. In this case, the most likely scenario is that GRRM hasn't found an entirely new way of writing satisfying prophecies that has eluded authors since the birth of fictional literature.

From a story telling and reader point of view, I have a hard time imagining a fantasy prophecy that satisfyingly fails to come true, but I wouldn't say it's impossible. In the case of ASOIAF, if the prophecies don't come true or the clues are not all available before the solution is revealed, I think it will feel lame. I will feel cheated and betrayed by the author for wasting my time on a mystery that was impossible to solve. I think that outcome is an author's greatest fear, which is why these rules or practices came to be.

Perhaps I just lack imagination.

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28 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

@40 Thousand Skeletons, letting Mance go was most definitely not a key factor in Jon getting shanked. In fact, it wasn't even a factor, let alone a key one! :P

For one very simple reason: no one knows Jon let Mance go apart from Mance himself, Mel, and Jon. 

LOL what are you talking about? Jon read the pink letter in front of everyone in the shield hall, including the group of men who stabbed him, and then got stabbed right after. And in case you don't remember the whole pink letter:

Quote

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Your false king's friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back. I want the false king's queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want his wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard's heart and eat it.

Quote

"I summoned you to make plans for the relief of Hardhome," Jon Snow began. "Thousands of the free folk are gathered there, trapped and starving, and we have had reports of dead things in the wood." To his left he saw Marsh and Yarwyck. Othell was surrounded by his builders, whilst Bowen had Wick Whittlestick, Left Hand Lew, and Alf of Runnymudd beside him. 

...

"And where will you be, crow?" Borroq thundered. "Hiding here in Castle Black with your white dog?"

"No. I ride south." Then Jon read them the letter Ramsay Snow had written.

The Shieldhall went mad.

...

Yarwyck and Marsh were slipping out, he saw, and all their men behind them. It made no matter. He did not need them now. He did not want them. No man can ever say I made my brothers break their vows. If this is oathbreaking, the crime is mine and mine alone. Then Tormund was pounding him on the back, all gap-toothed grin from ear to ear. "Well spoken, crow. Now bring out the mead! Make them yours and get them drunk, that's how it's done. We'll make a wildling o' you yet, boy. Har!"

...

away, he meant to say. When Wick Whittlestick slashed at his throat, the word turned into a grunt. Jon twisted from the knife, just enough so it barely grazed his skin. He cut me. When he put his hand to the side of his neck, blood welled between his fingers. "Why?"

"For the Watch." Wick slashed at him again. This time Jon caught his wrist and bent his arm back until he dropped the dagger. The gangling steward backed away, his hands upraised as if to say, Not me, it was not me. Men were screaming. Jon reached for Longclaw, but his fingers had grown stiff and clumsy. Somehow he could not seem to get the sword free of its scabbard.

Then Bowen Marsh stood there before him, tears running down his cheeks. "For the Watch." He punched Jon in the belly. When he pulled his hand away, the dagger stayed where he had buried it.

I am pretty sure they knew about Mance :P 

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55 minutes ago, rustythesmith said:

From a puzzle solving or gaming perspective, I would chase the most likely scenario. In this case, the most likely scenario is that GRRM hasn't found an entirely new way of writing satisfying prophecies that has eluded authors since the birth of fictional literature.

From a story telling and reader point of view, I have a hard time imagining a fantasy prophecy that satisfyingly fails to come true, but I wouldn't say it's impossible. In the case of ASOIAF, if the prophecies don't come true or the clues are not all available before the solution is revealed, I think it will feel lame. I will feel cheated and betrayed by the author for wasting my time on a mystery that was impossible to solve. I think that outcome is an author's greatest fear, which is why these rules or practices came to be.

Perhaps I just lack imagination.

LOL I think rather than lacking imagination, you simply haven't read other stories by GRRM. I recommend starting with And Seven Times Never Kill Man, Men of Greywater Station, and Under Siege if you want your imagination expanded concerning false prophecies and visions sent by the gods. GRRM has done this before. Here is a relevant quote from And Seven Times Never Kill Man:

Quote

“Yet there is a tale, my Proctor—one that troubles me. Once, it is said, in the long centuries of war, the Sons of Hranga loosed upon the seed of Earth foul vampires of the mind, the creatures men called soulsucks. Their touch was invisible, but it crept across kilometers, farther than a man could see, farther than a laser could fire, and it brought madness. Visions, my Proctor, visions! False gods and foolish plans were put in the minds of men, and …”

“Silence,” Wyatt said.

I think from a puzzle solving or story telling perspective, the most likely answer is that GRRM is yet again using visions and prophecies as tools used by nefarious actors to trick mankind into war. After all, the Azor Ahai Reborn prophecy, if fulfilled by the characters, will ultimately lead to genocide. And that is totally not cool. Genocide is bad, and GRRM is a very anti-war person and author. He is not going to glorify the genocide of the Others or lend credence to a crazy, heathen-burning, fire-vision-reading charlatan like Melisandre.

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8 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

LOL I think rather than lacking imagination, you simply haven't read other stories by GRRM. I recommend starting with And Seven Times Never Kill Man, Men of Greywater Station, and Under Siege if you want your imagination expanded concerning false prophecies and visions sent by the gods. GRRM has done this before. Here is a relevant quote from And Seven Times Never Kill Man:

I think from a puzzle solving or story telling perspective, the most likely answer is that GRRM is yet again using visions and prophecies as tools used by nefarious actors to trick mankind into war. After all, the Azor Ahai Reborn prophecy, if fulfilled by the characters, will ultimately lead to genocide. And that is totally not cool. Genocide is bad, and GRRM is a very anti-war person and author. He is not going to glorify the genocide of the Others or lend credence to a crazy, heathen-burning, fire-vision-reading charlatan like Melisandre.

I agree with this, both that George is very good at using prophecy in his older stories, and that it is the end user who gets it wrong (Mel in this case), which causes prophecy to "bite your cock off". Also, religious zealot users like Proctor Wyatt and Melisandre, have a tendency to change the end goals to suit their needs. Wyatt more so and done with a harsher hand. Mel is being led on a golden goose chase, but she keeps picking up ducks and claiming "here is your quackery! Wait, not this one. Over here. Here is your quacker! Now, now or burn."  

I just finished another old story of George's two days ago and I found it very interesting how the main guy was staring out on a quest to find the "bad guy", and during the entire story the main protagonist repeatedly specifies NO religious zealots on his mission because they always mess things up. It was hilarious. 

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@40 Thousand Skeletons, he did indeed read the PL. But everyone and their dogs saw Mance Rayder burn (and then get shot by arrows), and as far as anyone (other than Mance, Mel and Jon) is concerned, Mance is very, very dead. Do you remember Tormund's reaction to the letter? 

ADwD, Jon XIII

“The wildling gave the letter a dubious look and handed it right back. “Feels nasty … but Tormund Thunderfist had better things to do than learn to make papers talk at him. They never have any good to say, now do they?”
“Not often,” Jon Snow admitted. Dark wings, dark words. Perhaps there was more truth to those wise old sayings than he’d known. “It was sent by Ramsay Snow. I’ll read you what he wrote.”
When he was done, Tormund whistled. “Har. That’s buggered, and no mistake. What was that about Mance? Has him in a cage, does he? How, when hundreds saw your red witch burn the man?
That was Rattleshirt, Jon almost said. That was sorcery. A glamor, she called it. “Melisandre … look to the skies, she said.” He set the letter down. “A raven in a storm. She saw this coming.” When you have your answers, send to me.
“Might be all a skin o’ lies.”

Jon never told the truth to Tormund, at least not until they start "changing the plans" and we're not privy to the convo anymore. It doesn't actually matter if he told Tormund before the Shieldhall... Because we know for a fact Jon never says anything about the Mance/Rattleshirt switcheroo when he speaks to the assembled men. It makes zero sense for any of those men in the Shieldhall, free folk or black brothers or queen's men, to believe Mance is alive. They all saw him burn, and more, the letter has other bits that aren't true: Ramsay demands Reek and Arya, but they aren't there and everyone knows. As far as those concerned know, Mance is dead. So no one can use that excuse.  Voila! :)

 

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1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

LOL I think rather than lacking imagination, you simply haven't read other stories by GRRM. I recommend starting with And Seven Times Never Kill Man, Men of Greywater Station, and Under Siege if you want your imagination expanded concerning false prophecies and visions sent by the gods. GRRM has done this before. Here is a relevant quote from And Seven Times Never Kill Man:

I think from a puzzle solving or story telling perspective, the most likely answer is that GRRM is yet again using visions and prophecies as tools used by nefarious actors to trick mankind into war. After all, the Azor Ahai Reborn prophecy, if fulfilled by the characters, will ultimately lead to genocide. And that is totally not cool. Genocide is bad, and GRRM is a very anti-war person and author. He is not going to glorify the genocide of the Others or lend credence to a crazy, heathen-burning, fire-vision-reading charlatan like Melisandre.

Prophecy is treacherous. That is a theme in ASOIAF and judging from what you quoted, it is also a theme in GRRM's other books. But it is only treacherous to the characters. The theme that prophecy is treacherous is part of the author's attempts to misdirect us from solving it.

After the original telling, he is free to mislead us the best he can without lying. The characters' opinions, thoughts and beliefs are not the beliefs of the author, they are the beliefs of the characters. Characters like Marwyn and Val will say that prophecy is bullshit. Melisandre and Mance will communicate the prophecy back and forth until the original wording becomes twisted and forgotten. Jaime will console Cersei by telling her that prophecy is bullshit. Melisandre will suffer criticism for getting her prophecies wrong.

All of these things serve to dissuade the player from continuing with the game. The proof that GRRM loves this thematic irony is in the way that we can look back and see that the prophet was right all along. Just not in the way she expected and not in the way we expected. We can reread the conversations and pinpoint exactly where the wording of the original telling got warped and changed, or how circumstances like Renly being dead caused the characters to dismiss the prophecy.

Many players will throw their hands in the air in frustration, point to what the characters are saying for validation, and stop searching. That's what the author wants because when the solution is finally revealed, when the girl in grey arrives and the last pieces of the puzzle fall into place, most people will be surprised.

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8 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

@40 Thousand Skeletons, he did indeed read the PL. But everyone and their dogs saw Mance Rayder burn (and then get shot by arrows), and as far as anyone (other than Mance, Mel and Jon) is concerned, Mance is very, very dead. Do you remember Tormund's reaction to the letter? 

ADwD, Jon XIII

“The wildling gave the letter a dubious look and handed it right back. “Feels nasty … but Tormund Thunderfist had better things to do than learn to make papers talk at him. They never have any good to say, now do they?”
“Not often,” Jon Snow admitted. Dark wings, dark words. Perhaps there was more truth to those wise old sayings than he’d known. “It was sent by Ramsay Snow. I’ll read you what he wrote.”
When he was done, Tormund whistled. “Har. That’s buggered, and no mistake. What was that about Mance? Has him in a cage, does he? How, when hundreds saw your red witch burn the man?
That was Rattleshirt, Jon almost said. That was sorcery. A glamor, she called it. “Melisandre … look to the skies, she said.” He set the letter down. “A raven in a storm. She saw this coming.” When you have your answers, send to me.
“Might be all a skin o’ lies.”

Jon never told the truth to Tormund, at least not until they start "changing the plans" and we're not privy to the convo anymore. It doesn't actually matter if he told Tormund before the Shieldhall... Because we know for a fact Jon never says anything about the Mance/Rattleshirt switcheroo when he speaks to the assembled men. It makes zero sense for any of those men in the Shieldhall, free folk or black brothers or queen's men, to believe Mance is alive. They all saw him burn, and more, the letter has other bits that aren't true: Ramsay demands Reek and Arya, but they aren't there and everyone knows. As far as those concerned know, Mance is dead. So no one can use that excuse.  Voila! :)

LOL no, not voila at all! :P 

Just because the escaped "Arya" and Reek haven't made it to CB yet doesn't mean the contents of the letter is automatically false. The mutineers have absolutely no reason to doubt the contents of the letter. Why would they? Jon did not deny sending Mance to WF in his speech. And Jon chose to read the letter to everyone in the first place. I am not following your logic at all :P. I thought it was supposed to be obvious that they were pissed off about Jon sending Mance to rescue his sister, thereby interfering with non-NW matters, breaking his vow, attracting the wrath of Ramsay, and putting the NW in danger, and so they stabbed him like responsible people. That was like the whole point of him reading the pink letter aloud. Its contents, which they believed to be true, led directly to him getting stabbed.

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2 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

LOL no, not voila at all! :P 

Just because the escaped "Arya" and Reek haven't made it to CB yet doesn't mean the contents of the letter is automatically false. The mutineers have absolutely no reason to doubt the contents of the letter. Why would they? Jon did not deny sending Mance to WF in his speech. And Jon chose to read the letter to everyone in the first place. I am not following your logic at all :P. I thought it was supposed to be obvious that they were pissed off about Jon sending Mance to rescue his sister, thereby interfering with non-NW matters, breaking his vow, attracting the wrath of Ramsay, and putting the NW in danger, and so they stabbed him like responsible people. That was like the whole point of him reading the pink letter aloud. Its contents, which they believed to be true, led directly to him getting stabbed.

What possible reason do you have to explain away the mutineers' believing Ramsay Snow over their own eyes? Specifically, Ramsay's claim that Jon falsely claimed to have burned Mance and instead sent Mance to Winterfell for fArya, as opposed to Mance having been burned at Castle Black.

Remember, "Mance" was publicly burned at Castle Black. Many, if not all, of them would have witnessed it, or heard about it from people who were there to witness it.

Plus, "Mance" was burned by Stannis and Melisandre, not Jon Snow. It wasn't Jon saying that he'd burned Mance in the first place.

 

 

Jon doesn't deny sending Mance to Winterfell, but neither does he actually say that he did, he doesn't discuss that mission at all. He reads this letter, supposedly from Ramsay, that's filled with what should sound like blatant nonsense and impossibilities to everyone at the Wall, and says he's going to head south to deal with Ramsay.

After all, when somebody's tossing around utter and obvious nonsense accusations and claims, that everyone in the room hearing them knows are totally impossible and that they're full of it, how much effort do you really put into calling out the obvious BS as opposed to addressing the consequences of their madness? I'd like to think I'd be more focused on how to appropriately deal with/handle this obvious nutjob, rather than addressing and rebutting the specificities of their spurious and obviously false claims.

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5 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

LOL no, not voila at all! :P 

Just because the escaped "Arya" and Reek haven't made it to CB yet doesn't mean the contents of the letter is automatically false. The mutineers have absolutely no reason to doubt the contents of the letter. Why would they? Jon did not deny sending Mance to WF in his speech. And Jon chose to read the letter to everyone in the first place. I am not following your logic at all :P. I thought it was supposed to be obvious that they were pissed off about Jon sending Mance to rescue his sister, thereby interfering with non-NW matters, breaking his vow, attracting the wrath of Ramsay, and putting the NW in danger, and so they stabbed him like responsible people. That was like the whole point of him reading the pink letter aloud. Its contents, which they believed to be true, led directly to him getting stabbed.

Nope. It makes no sense for anyone to believe he sent Mance b/c they all saw Mance die. As far as they're concerned, Jon sent someone/Rattleshirt but not Mance.

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16 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

All that said, I do think it is worth questioning if the vision was actually Alys, but I think it is quite clear that it was. Any other answer is sort of pointless to the narrative, because the characters think the vision has been fulfilled.

Yes, it's clear from the text that it's Alys and I agree it's sometimes useful to revisit visions and dreams from time to time for any other insights. I was puzzled that Melisandre would make an identification when she has never seen Arya.  However, Jon makes it clear that Alys looks a bit like Arya, who looks a bit like Jon.  So Melisandre's identification makes some sense.  The notion that the old gods can influence Mel's visions is important because we are given to think that she can only recieve  'instruction' from R'Hllor.  

In this same vision, the old god's make their presence known:

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A Dance with Dragons - Melisandre I

Visions danced before her, gold and scarlet, flickering, forming and melting and dissolving into one another, shapes strange and terrifying and seductive. She saw the eyeless faces again, staring out at her from sockets weeping blood. Then the towers by the sea, crumbling as the dark tide came sweeping over them, rising from the depths. Shadows in the shape of skulls, skulls that turned to mist, bodies locked together in lust, writhing and rolling and clawing. Through curtains of fire great winged shadows wheeled against a hard blue sky.

The girl. I must find the girl again, the grey girl on the dying horse. Jon Snow would expect that of her, and soon. It would not be enough to say the girl was fleeing. He would want more, he would want the when and where, and she did not have that for him. She had seen the girl only once. A girl as grey as ash, and even as I watched she crumbled and blew away.

A face took shape within the hearth. Stannis? she thought, for just a moment … but no, these were not his features. A wooden face, corpse white. Was this the enemy? A thousand red eyes floated in the rising flames. He sees me. Beside him, a boy with a wolf's face threw back his head and howled.

 

So to your question of who is sending the visions and why; eyes weeping blood is a giveaway, as well as 'she crumbled and blew away'.  We never question that Ned's dreams are sent by the old gods but the idea that the old gods can affect or interfere with Melisandre's visions is quite interesting. 

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13 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Also, religious zealot users like Proctor Wyatt and Melisandre, have a tendency to change the end goals to suit their needs

Or change the prophecy to suit their needs:

Quote

A Clash of Kings - Davos I

Melisandre was robed all in scarlet satin and blood velvet, her eyes as red as the great ruby that glistened at her throat as if it too were afire. "In ancient books of Asshai it is written that there will come a day after a long summer when the stars bleed and the cold breath of darkness falls heavy on the world. In this dread hour a warrior shall draw from the fire a burning sword. And that sword shall be Lightbringer, the Red Sword of Heroes, and he who clasps it shall be Azor Ahai come again, and the darkness shall flee before him." She lifted her voice, so it carried out over the gathered host. "Azor Ahai, beloved of R'hllor! The Warrior of Light, the Son of Fire! Come forth, your sword awaits you! Come forth and take it into your hand!"

A Storm of Swords - Davos III

"It is night in your Seven Kingdoms now," the red woman went on, "but soon the sun will rise again. The war continues, Davos Seaworth, and some will soon learn that even an ember in the ashes can still ignite a great blaze. The old maester looked at Stannis and saw only a man. You see a king. You are both wrong. He is the Lord's chosen, the warrior of fire. I have seen him leading the fight against the dark, I have seen it in the flames. The flames do not lie, else you would not be here. It is written in prophecy as well. When the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone. The bleeding star has come and gone, and Dragonstone is the place of smoke and salt. Stannis Baratheon is Azor Ahai reborn!" Her red eyes blazed like twin fires, and seemed to stare deep into his soul. "You do not believe me. You doubt the truth of R'hllor even now . . . yet have served him all the same, and will serve him again. I shall leave you here to think on all that I have told you. And because R'hllor is the source of all good, I shall leave the torch as well."

 

In the first, we get the prophecy as it is written down: "when the stars bleed".  That's not the same as: "The bleeding star..."

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1 minute ago, LynnS said:

Or change the prophecy to suit their needs:

In the first, we get the prophecy as it is written down: "when the stars bleed".  That's not the same as: "The bleeding star..."

Hah! Sorry :P. That is actually what I meant to say. They change the meaning of the prophecy to suit their needs. Yes, I agree about the star/stars issue. Thanks :cheers:

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To the OP:

I very much enjoyed the detective work while reading your essay, and the discussion on the thread is very interesting, too. 

Here are some random thoughts to add:

On 2017. 08. 17. at 1:33 PM, rustythesmith said:

Alys almost fits the vision, but she isn't grey as ash. She's specifically described as blue here. Her hair is brown, her eyes are blue-grey, and her clothes are black.

Actually, the black Alys is wearing when Jon first sees her is a back Night's Watch cloak. We simply don't know what colour she was wearing during her journey to Castle Black. This may be a clever way for the author to confuse the reader: If Alys wore grey, she would be too close to fulfilling the prophecy. If we knew her (own) clothes were blue or pink or black, it could be a very strong indication that she isn't the "girl in grey". Since Alys is wearing a NW cloak when we first see her, we don't know what clothes she was wearing originally and so we can conclude whatever we want to conclude. Personally, I think if Alys was meant to be the solution to the puzzle, there would be no reason to keep the colour of her (grey) clothes secret, there are so many things that point to her anyway. Not letting us see her original clothes leaves just enough room for the possibility that she isn't the girl in grey. 

I love the idea of Arya being the girl in grey, but I also want to cling to the words:

Quote

"It has not happened yet, but it will."

After all, a prophecy referring to something that has already happened on page is less interesting than a prophecy referring to something that is still to come. For me what would really make Arya the solution is some future event that completes her journey by Arya reaching Jon and getting to him for purposes of protection (whichever of them needs to be protected). Also, the "fleeing from this marriage" and the "dying horse" parts don't seem to be really fulfilled yet (in my opinion), but I agree that not all parts of the prophecy may (or should) come true in their most literal or obvious interpretations. Besides, it would not be against the rules to have Arya ride North along the God's Eye once more in the story, perhaps at a time when the lake is covered by thin ice. (I don't know if the same "deer" (stag) would still be with her though...)

The Lyanna idea sounds great, too, except that here we would need some very symbolic solution to satisfy the criterion of fleeing to Jon Snow for protection. Of course, the prophecy would again refer to the past, but at least it would be a (very significant) past event that we hardly know anything about. Anyway, the "deer" in her case could refer to Robert, who is not with her on the journey but was with her "once" as her betrothed. 

On 2017. 08. 17. at 1:33 PM, rustythesmith said:

Jeyne Poole

Alys is thought by many to be a red herring. Jeyne Poole makes sense in many ways. Melisandre mistakes the girl in grey for Arya Stark, and this may be a clue of Jeyne Poole because Jeyne is currently at Winterfell pretending to be Arya Stark. If we follow this clue, it connects Jeyne to the color grey because Theon notes often that Jeyne's eyes are the wrong color to be Arya Stark. Jeyne's eyes are brown and Arya's eyes are grey.

The connections between Jeyne Poole and the color grey don't stop there. Her clothes are the grey roughspun that were given to her by Squirrel, meant to disguise Jeyne as a washerwoman in order to escape Winterfell.

[[ Let's take a moment to talk about the journey of sleuthing that has led us to where we are now. In order to consider Jeyne as the girl in grey, the reader has first had to consider and discard Alys Karstark even when she was a 5/7 match. Some pieces of the puzzle fell into place easily for Jeyne Poole, such as fleeing from a marriage, but the color of her clothes are much harder to find. Clothes can change and we want to know the color of Jeyne's clothes at the time and place of the vision, so the search begins in [ADWD 54 Theon I] when they make their escape from Winterfell. We reread the chapter and get to the part with Jeyne to find her wearing wolf skins. Wolves can be grey but no color is mentioned. As the scene unfolds, Jeyne and the wildling Squirrel strip and swap clothes, but still no color is mentioned. Now we must find the color of Squirrel's clothes. Unless our memories are sharp, we will have to comb the chapter again to find the spot several pages earlier that mentions nonchalantly that all the wilding spearwives, including Squirrel, are wearing grey roughspun.

Phew! That shows us the extent to which the author is willing to go in order to hide clues to his prophecies. The care with which the clue was hidden could strongly indicate that we're on the right track. However, the clothes are not only grey. They are also brown and white. While it is tempting to settle with a near match, we have to resist the urge. ]]

Additionally, the husband that Jeyne is fleeing from happens to own a hound named Grey Jeyne. There is a little bit of grey on the arms of House Poole but not enough to matter, in my opinion. House Poole's arms are a blue plate on white with a grey tressure.

Jeyne [Spoilers TWOW] matches the "crumbled and blew away" part of the vision because the tip of her nose has gone black with frostbite. Her escort thinks that she will lose that part of her nose soon. It's such a small part of her body that it doesn't match the prophecy well enough for me, personally. What Melisandre described seems to imply something significant such as death or transformation, but I'll digress. The frostbite works with the prophecy. Jeyne and Theon arrive at Stannis's camp and Stannis sends Jeyne "Arya" Poole with an escort to Jon at Castle Black. We will have to wait and see if she arrives on a dying horse, but it seems likely considering the poor state of Stannis's army. The wilderness hills fields trees deer stones streams and villages match well enough with the vision. It remains to be seen if the escort will avoid villages or if a freezing lake will be west of her. Jon plans to send Arya across the sea to keep her safe, which could come to match the "blew away" part of the prophecy. Jeyne is 5/7 for the vision and looking hopeful.

[[ Like before, Jeyne required us to make allowances and assumptions for certain parts of the prophecy, and that is a bad sign. We cannot say for certain that she actually did encounter hills, fields, trees, stones, streams, and a deer once unless they appear in the text. We don't know for certain that she was avoiding villages because the text never told us that she was avoiding villages, even though it is entirely reasonable to assume that a runaway would avoid villages. From now on I won't stop to point out allowances. They are identifiable by a lack of exact or synonymous verbiage used in the prophecy. ]]

 

Jeyne also seems to be a very good candidate - she is not really Jon's sister but she is impersonating her. I don't really miss the description of "hills, fields, trees, stones, streams, and a deer once" in her story, as she hasn't reached Jon yet, so it is still possible that those elements will be included in her journey. She seems to be a "girl in grey" indeed. It is possible that, with the arrival of Jeyne, Jon will believe for the second time that he is going to meet Arya, only to be disappointed once more. In this case, I would think that a "third time pays for all" scenario is quite possible - after two supposed "girls in grey" temporarily believed to be Arya for some reason, the real Arya will show up fulfilling all the criteria and proving that Mel's original guess was in a way correct. 

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18 hours ago, rustythesmith said:

Yes! "Ash" is used to describe the riverlands in Arya's chapters too. "Grey ash" appears in the same breath with the Stark banner, though not to describe the banner itself. The phrase and imagery pops up in several places, and the red herrings are part of what makes the game so fun to me.

I do take your point that later books will answer or at least illuminate previous information the reader has received.  I think a good example of that is the great horn found by Mance which Mel claims is the Horn of Joruman and makes a great display of it's destruction.

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A Dance with Dragons - Jon III

"The Horn of Joramun?" Melisandre said. "No. Call it the Horn of Darkness. If the Wall falls, night falls as well, the long night that never ends. It must not happen, will not happen! The Lord of Light has seen his children in their peril and sent a champion to them, Azor Ahai reborn." She swept a hand toward Stannis, and the great ruby at her throat pulsed with light.

 

We get the full description of the horn in SoS:

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A Storm of Swords - Jon X

Jon kept his face as still as ice. Foul enough to slay a man in his own tent under truce. Must I murder him in front of his wife as their child is being born? He closed the fingers of his sword hand. Mance was not wearing armor, but his own sword was sheathed on his left hip. And there were other weapons in the tent, daggers and dirks, a bow and a quiver of arrows, a bronze-headed spear lying beside that big black . . .

. . . horn.

Jon sucked in his breath.

A warhorn, a bloody great warhorn.

"Yes," Mance said. "The Horn of Winter, that Joramun once blew to wake giants from the earth."

The horn was huge, eight feet along the curve and so wide at the mouth that he could have put his arm inside up to the elbow. If this came from an aurochs, it was the biggest that ever lived. At first he thought the bands around it were bronze, but when he moved closer he realized they were gold. Old gold, more brown than yellow, and graven with runes.

"Ygritte said you never found the horn."

Did you think only crows could lie? I liked you well enough, for a bastard . . . but I never trusted you. A man needs to earn my trust."

Jon faced him. "If you've had the Horn of Joramun all along, why haven't you used it? Why bother building turtles and sending Thenns to kill us in our beds? If this horn is all the songs say, why not just sound it and be done?"

It was Dalla who answered him, Dalla great with child, lying on her pile of furs beside the brazier. "We free folk know things you kneelers have forgotten. Sometimes the short road is not the safest, Jon Snow. The Horned Lord once said that sorcery is a sword without a hilt. There is no safe way to grasp it."

 

However, it isn't until DwD that we are told more about "Joramun's horn" in comparison to another great horn of similar description:

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A Dance with Dragons - Victarion I

That night, for the first time, he brought forth the dragon horn that the Crow's Eye had found amongst the smoking wastes of great Valyria. A twisted thing it was, six feet long from end to end, gleaming black and banded with red gold and dark Valyrian steel. Euron's hellhorn. Victarion ran his hand along it. The horn was as warm and smooth as the dusky woman's thighs, and so shiny that he could see a twisted likeness of his own features in its depths. Strange sorcerous writings had been cut into the bands that girded it. "Valyrian glyphs," Moqorro called them.

That much Victarion had known. "What do they say?"

"Much and more." The black priest pointed to one golden band. "Here the horn is named. 'I am Dragonbinder,' it says. Have you ever heard it sound?"

"Once." One of his brother's mongrels had sounded the hellhorn at the kingsmoot on Old Wyk. A monster of a man he had been, huge and shaven-headed, with rings of gold and jet and jade around arms thick with muscle, and a great hawk tattooed across his chest. "The sound it made … it burned, somehow. As if my bones were on fire, searing my flesh from within. Those writings glowed red-hot, then white-hot and painful to look upon. It seemed as if the sound would never end. It was like some long scream. A thousand screams, all melted into one."

"And the man who blew the horn, what of him?"

"He died. There were blisters on his lips, after. His bird was bleeding too." The captain thumped his chest. "The hawk, just here. Every feather dripping blood. I heard the man was all burned up inside, but that might just have been some tale."

"A true tale." Moqorro turned the hellhorn, examining the queer letters that crawled across a second of the golden bands. "Here it says, 'No mortal man shall sound me and live.'

 

Val points out that there is no safe way to grasp it.  In other words, no mortal man shall sound it and live; which answers Jon's question about why Mance never sounded the horn.   Of course Ygritte is telling the truth when she says that Mance never found the Horn of Winter; but Mance was prepared to let the Night's Watch believe that he did. It's likely Melisandre would know a dragon binding horn when she saw one as well and is also prepared to let her audience think it is something that it is not.  Fire will not destroy it.  She deploys powders from her bag of tricks to make an impression:

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A Dance with Dragons - Jon III

"The Horn of Joramun?" Melisandre said. "No. Call it the Horn of Darkness. If the Wall falls, night falls as well, the long night that never ends. It must not happen, will not happen! The Lord of Light has seen his children in their peril and sent a champion to them, Azor Ahai reborn." She swept a hand toward Stannis, and the great ruby at her throat pulsed with light.

FREE FOLK!" cried Melisandre. "Behold the fate of those who choose the darkness

The Horn of Joramun burst into flame

It went up with a whoosh as swirling tongues of green and yellow fire leapt up crackling all along its length. Jon's garron shied nervously, and up and down the ranks others fought to still their mounts as well. A moan came from the stockade as the free folk saw their hope afire. A few began to shout and curse, but most lapsed into silence. For half a heartbeat the runes graven on the gold bands seemed to shimmer in the air. The queen's men gave a heave and sent the horn tumbling down into the fire pit.

The horn crashed amongst the logs and leaves and kindling. Within three heartbeats the whole pit was aflame. Clutching the bars of his cage with bound hands, Mance sobbed and begged. When the fire reached him he did a little dance. His screams became one long, wordless shriek of fear and pain. Within his cage, he fluttered like a burning leaf, a moth caught in a candle flame.

 

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A Dance with Dragons - Melisandre I

While the boy was gone, Melisandre washed herself and changed her robes. Her sleeves were full of hidden pockets, and she checked them carefully as she did every morning to make certain all her powders were in place. Powders to turn fire green or blue or silver, powders to make a flame roar and hiss and leap up higher than a man is tall, powders to make smoke. A smoke for truth, a smoke for lust, a smoke for fear, and the thick black smoke that could kill a man outright. The red priestess armed herself with a pinch of each of them.

 

 

Somewhat off topic; but an example of how the reader is introduced to something in an earlier book but given additional or contradictory information later.

 

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54 minutes ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Hah! Sorry :P. That is actually what I meant to say. They change the meaning of the prophecy to suit their needs. Yes, I agree about the star/stars issue. Thanks :cheers:

LOL!  I knew what you meant. Although the blood streaked sky or the great red comet doesn't make it any less a sign or portent of something. 

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3 hours ago, Kytheros said:

What possible reason do you have to explain away the mutineers' believing Ramsay Snow over their own eyes? Specifically, Ramsay's claim that Jon falsely claimed to have burned Mance and instead sent Mance to Winterfell for fArya, as opposed to Mance having been burned at Castle Black.

Remember, "Mance" was publicly burned at Castle Black. Many, if not all, of them would have witnessed it, or heard about it from people who were there to witness it.

Plus, "Mance" was burned by Stannis and Melisandre, not Jon Snow. It wasn't Jon saying that he'd burned Mance in the first place.

 

 

Jon doesn't deny sending Mance to Winterfell, but neither does he actually say that he did, he doesn't discuss that mission at all. He reads this letter, supposedly from Ramsay, that's filled with what should sound like blatant nonsense and impossibilities to everyone at the Wall, and says he's going to head south to deal with Ramsay.

After all, when somebody's tossing around utter and obvious nonsense accusations and claims, that everyone in the room hearing them knows are totally impossible and that they're full of it, how much effort do you really put into calling out the obvious BS as opposed to addressing the consequences of their madness? I'd like to think I'd be more focused on how to appropriately deal with/handle this obvious nutjob, rather than addressing and rebutting the specificities of their spurious and obviously false claims.

Exactly. The Pink Letter specifically states "You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me", but NW members know that Jon never "told the world" that he had burned anyone, indeed that it wasn't Jon who had burned Mance. Even if they start entertaining the idea that Mance may have escaped somehow, there is no reason to think it was Jon's responsibility as Mance was held in prison by Stannis and must have been guarded by Baratheon guards. 

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27 minutes ago, LynnS said:

LOL!  I knew what you meant. Although the blood streaked sky or the great red comet doesn't make it any less a sign or portent of something. 

The star bleeding can be confusing because this is another example of one sign fits with many possibilities. For instance, Melisandre is linked to her ruby (maybe under a glamour where she is controlled by someone else like she glamours Mance with another ruby), and her ruby is compared to a star. So when Mel bleeds black blood in her Dance chapter, does that equal the bleeding star?

But then Jon is associated with being like the stars with his connections to the ice dragon constellation. So when Jon is mutiny stabbed, which brings the cold and presumably the long night, is that the stars bleeding?

But wait, there's more! Ser Patrek of King's Mountain is smashed to bits by Wun Wun as Patrek tries to steal his way in to get Val. This is the main distraction that allows for the mutiny to happen among a group of people. So, is Ser Patrek a star bleeding?

The bleeding red comet in the sky is said to be nothing good. And to mean dragons. But then, Daenerys thinks it is meant for her and she follows it.

 

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