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Who will get Iron Bank's support if Boltons win?


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6 minutes ago, Grazdan zo Azer said:

I don't want Stannis to lose. But if it happens who will get Braavos' support against Lannisters?

Personally, I think that Doran Martell is the best candidate. His siblings were killed by Lannisters and he now plots against them with GC.

The Iron Bank, while a very important institution in Braavos, does not represent all of Braavos, or that is at least my take on it. The bank's is not interested in dynastic squabbles but in getting back the debt Cersei very unwisely declined to pay. So if there was a party that had a decent change of victory and that would take on all the debt Robert had incurred, then presumably they'd support that party. I don't think such a party with high enough chance of success exists, though, so I doubt they'd pick another horse if and when Stannis fails. 

I don't think Doran will be in any position to pay the debt even if his faction won, not being a contender himself, so they'd rather support Aegon or Daenarys, though anti-dragon bias may come into that.

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Have you read the Theon I gift chapter from TWOW?

Spoiler

Stannis sends Justin Massey with Tycho to the Wall, and from there to Braavos to hire and then bring Stannis' mercenary army. Stannis also ordered him to lead this army in Shireen's name and place her on the Iron Throne in case Stannis falls in the coming battle.

In case the Iron Bank loses its claimant to the Iron Throne, it would seek another. fAegon would be a natural candidate.

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3 minutes ago, Nyrhex said:

Have you read the Theon I gift chapter from TWOW?

  Reveal hidden contents

Stannis sends Justin Massey with Tycho to the Wall, and from there to Braavos to hire and then bring Stannis' mercenary army. Stannis also ordered him to lead this army in Shireen's name and place her on the Iron Throne in case Stannis falls in the coming battle.

In case the Iron Bank loses its claimant to the Iron Throne, it would seek another. fAegon would be a natural candidate.

Possibly Aegon and Arianne will get married. So Doran Martell is still best candidate.

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Whoever they think has the best chance of paying them back the huge amount of money the Crown owes them.

If (f)Aegon, Jon Con  and company have some early success in Westeros with their war campaign they would probably support them.  If they support and give (f)Aegon a big loan like they did with Stannis and they both end up dying they might just decide to cut their loses with Westeros. I mean it's not their policy by any means but at some point you have to abandoned a sinking ship. 

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26 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

No one, of course ;-).

I guess you managed to say in few words what I spent many to say. Oh well.

19 minutes ago, Grazdan zo Azer said:

Fixed. Do Iron Bank and Faceless men have any responsibility towards Sealord?

That's the question, isn't it? I am not an expert on Braavos related matters but I don't think we know what kind of ties exist between those three great institutions of Braavos. We really haven't gotten as thorough a picture of the power dynamics in Braavos as we have in King's Landing, for example. I have read theories on these forums about how any and all of those parties are cooperating for a wide range of purposes but for the most part those theories have been based on conjecture. I guess the answer is, who the hell knows :P

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3 minutes ago, Humble Maester said:

That's the question, isn't it? I am not an expert on Braavos related matters but I don't think we know what kind of ties exist between those three great institutions of Braavos. We really haven't gotten as thorough a picture of the power dynamics in Braavos as we have in King's Landing, for example. I have read theories on these forums about how any and all of those parties are cooperating for a wide range of purposes but for the most part those theories have been based on conjecture. I guess the answer is, who the hell knows :P

I remember Mad king (when he was not mad) intended to invade Braavos when Iron Bank wanted payment. So Braavos' and Iron Bank's actions could affect each other. And I am sure that Iron Bank never helped Braavos' enemies. So there is strong relationship between these two institutions.

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They will go with whoever is willing to pay back the Crown's debts.  And until there is some sort of agreement on repayment, it is unlikely that whoever sits the IT is going to get any money out of the Iron Bank.  Right now, they are financing Stannis, but have to know that his is a shaky basket to place all their eggs in.

They are also still negotiating with the Lannister-Tyrell regime.  In the Arya preview chapter

Harys Swyft is in Braavos and is getting the red-carpet treatment; he has the best seat in the house for a flattering play, and accompaniment by the top courtesan in Braavos.  

Somebody seems interested in the negotiations going well.

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My crackpot guess is Asha.

Tristifer Botley and Qarl the Maid spent some time off page with Tycho Nestoris, and we know the important conversations in the story often happen off page.

I imagine Tris and Qarl sang the praises of Asha to Tycho, how she was *this* close to become Queen of the Iron Islands, how Euron is planning to bring back dragons and slavery (the 2 things Braavos hates and fears the most), how Asha could use Theon to undo the Kingsmoot, and how, with enough resources, the Ironborn could attack Casterly Rock and pay off the Bank's debts.

I mean, it's not ideal, but it's not like the Bank has a whole lot of options if Stannis and Shireen fail. Dany is anti-slavery but very much pro-dragons. Aegon is backed by Illyrio, who's in the slave business. Euron is a psycho and Cersei doesn't wanna play ball.

I guess a dark horse candidate could be Littlefinger and whatever puppet ruler he conjures.

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4 hours ago, Grazdan zo Azer said:

Fixed. Do Iron Bank and Faceless men have any responsibility towards Sealord?

The Iron Bank plays a direct overt role in the election of the Sealord, since the Keyholders of the bank have some role in his election along with the city's Magisters. We don't know enough about the process to really say what that means, but since they have some say, it stands to reason they elect a Sealord that reflects their interests.

As for the faceless men, well, the only way to get a Sealord out of office is to kill them, and the Sealords appear to go out of their way to appoint themselves a First Sword who can see through illusions.

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Based on his behavior in ADWD and having read the Theon I TWOW chapter I believe

Spoiler

Justin Massey takes the gold and sellswords right to Aegon.  Stannis never gets the support he is expecting.  The IB are fine with this as Aegon takes the throne and plans to repay the debts.

 

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I cant see any city being able to accommodate the IB, the Faceless men and a powerful Lord without these three establishments being able to co-operate with one another.

To answer your question, I can't see the IB financing Roose. Their idea is to 'Pentorise' Westeros. That means that Westeros needs to be weakened further to pave the way for a Braavosi puppet (Aegon?) to take over. Giving him time, Roose will become a solid warden of the North whose also loyal to the crown. That wont cut it for the IB.

Instead I can see them further financing LF especially if he decides to invade North on Sansa's behalf. Once Aegon conquers the darn place, I can see LF bending the knee faster then god knows who dragging the North, the Vale and the Riverlands with it

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Of course the Iron Bank is not Braavos. Tycho did not promise the fleets or armies of Braavos. They promised him money.

Stannis is more or less the only choice, both because he is a known quantity as a man of his word and he actually claims the Iron Throne. For instance either Robb or Balon did not claim the IT. The next option for the Iron Bank would be to approach directly someone in the current regime, say like Kevan or Mace to remove Cersei as Regent.

Then, of course Aegon and Dany would be considered.

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On ‎8‎/‎18‎/‎2017 at 1:51 PM, Grazdan zo Azer said:

I don't want Stannis to lose. But if it happens who will get Iron Bank's support against Lannisters?

Personally, I think that Doran Martell is the best candidate. His siblings were killed by Lannisters and he now plots against them with GC.

Please no spoiler from show.

Doran , Dany or Euron or even Littlefinger .

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  • 2 months later...

They will support whoever they think will pay the debt.  Naturally that person will have to have the means to pay down the debt.  There are few who can pay a debt that large in Westeros except the Tyrells and the Lannisters.  The Hightowers, Freys, and Redwynes could put together an alliance that can pay down some of the debt.  Whoever the bank will back will need to have wealth. 

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On ‎8‎/‎18‎/‎2017 at 4:12 PM, Lockjaw of House Boltagon said:

My crackpot guess is Asha.

Tristifer Botley and Qarl the Maid spent some time off page with Tycho Nestoris, and we know the important conversations in the story often happen off page.

I imagine Tris and Qarl sang the praises of Asha to Tycho, how she was *this* close to become Queen of the Iron Islands, how Euron is planning to bring back dragons and slavery (the 2 things Braavos hates and fears the most), how Asha could use Theon to undo the Kingsmoot, and how, with enough resources, the Ironborn could attack Casterly Rock and pay off the Bank's debts.

 

 This is good! 

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