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Who will get Iron Bank's support if Boltons win?


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On 8/18/2017 at 1:07 PM, Nyrhex said:

Have you read the Theon I gift chapter from TWOW?

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Stannis sends Justin Massey with Tycho to the Wall, and from there to Braavos to hire and then bring Stannis' mercenary army. Stannis also ordered him to lead this army in Shireen's name and place her on the Iron Throne in case Stannis falls in the coming battle.

In case the Iron Bank loses its claimant to the Iron Throne, it would seek another. fAegon would be a natural candidate.

Faegon will be popular and will have  a lot of people behind him. I also think that somehow Littlefinger might become a power broker with the Iron Bank at some point, he has assets and a good reputation with the bank but he has no lineage worth a flip, Sansa does however and it may make him a Kingmaker of sorts with her as the Queen because he thinks he has her under his personal influence. Why marry her to the heir to the Vale when he can marry her to the King?

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On ‎8‎/‎18‎/‎2017 at 5:06 PM, Nevets said:

They will go with whoever is willing to pay back the Crown's debts.  And until there is some sort of agreement on repayment, it is unlikely that whoever sits the IT is going to get any money out of the Iron Bank.  Right now, they are financing Stannis, but have to know that his is a shaky basket to place all their eggs in.

They are also still negotiating with the Lannister-Tyrell regime.  In the Arya preview chapter

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Harys Swyft is in Braavos and is getting the red-carpet treatment; he has the best seat in the house for a flattering play, and accompaniment by the top courtesan in Braavos.  

Somebody seems interested in the negotiations going well.

Spoiler

It is also possible that everything we saw happening was a sham.  Bravos may not have gotten word from Tycho yet, but they sent him with a purpose and I doubt they would intentionally back two players at once.  I believe that the Iron bank/Bravos wants 1 of 2 things to happen. To make Harys swift think that the bank is upset, but that they are only acting on that by calling in all Westerosi debts and refusing to issue any more.  It is in their best interest that Cersei does not find out they are supporting Stannis.  Surprise is always an advantage, and they want Stannis to have it.  The other possibility is almost the same, but that Arya was in fact always suppose to kill someone from Harys party to create a problem, thus getting Harys to leave without a resolution.  At the beginning of the chapter Arya says this is her last day as Mercy, so she was always planning on leaving the mummers that night.

 

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One point that GRRM is trying to make with the Iron Bank I think is, that the bank allways gets their money, on this way or another. If the Boltons win, then they will support someone else, since the economical wheel will continue to turn, no matter who wins. There will come the time when Kings Landing will need new Gold to pay for their spendings. Guess whom will lend them some? And guess who will make the rules of the deal then? For a Bank, what matters are the interest rates. They define the profit of a Bank. A Bank does not want to have the debt to be paid back, the contrary is the case. The higher the debt, the higher the interest rates. 

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On 18/08/2017 at 6:51 PM, Davos the Dragonslayer said:

I don't want Stannis to lose. But if it happens who will get Iron Bank's support against Lannisters?

Personally, I think that Doran Martell is the best candidate. His siblings were killed by Lannisters and he now plots against them with GC.

Please no spoiler from show.

Well, it would depend. I honestly don't think Stannis is losing this upcoming Battle of Ice but in the event that he does...

Spoiler

The loan they are giving Stannis might simply go to Shireen, who, on her father's death, is the rightful Queen.

However, if they are looking for a ready-and-waiting potential king to fund, then Aegon would make the most sense. He already has the Golden Company and if he manages to take a few strongholds with them, then they might well see him as a good investment. Furthermore, I think there might be a possibility that Doran might seek to have Arianne marry Aegon in exchange for Dorne's support of his bid for the throne. If he learns Quentyn is dead, if he really is dead, Doran likely won't be as sold on Daenerys anymore and might actually plot against her. I could even see Doran seeking out the Iron Bank to support Aegon if he is able to secure a marriage between him and Arianne.

Spoiler

To me, this whole idea of sending Arianne and her band of unlikely buddies to meet with Aegon to see if he is an Aegon or a (f)Aegon all seems to be leading up to her ending up married to him to secure the support of Dorne.

 

 

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The fact that Stannis thinks the loan will just automatically go to Shireen makes me think it's stipulated in the contract somewhere because otherwise that would be a weird assumption to make. But if that's not the case or if the Iron Bank weasels out of it to support a better candidate, then they'd back Aegon. He's powerful, firmly anti-Lannister and most of his advisers are from the Golden Company, which is a reputable organisation. 

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7 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:
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It is also possible that everything we saw happening was a sham.  Bravos may not have gotten word from Tycho yet, but they sent him with a purpose and I doubt they would intentionally back two players at once.  I believe that the Iron bank/Bravos wants 1 of 2 things to happen. To make Harys swift think that the bank is upset, but that they are only acting on that by calling in all Westerosi debts and refusing to issue any more.  It is in their best interest that Cersei does not find out they are supporting Stannis.  Surprise is always an advantage, and they want Stannis to have it.  The other possibility is almost the same, but that Arya was in fact always suppose to kill someone from Harys party to create a problem, thus getting Harys to leave without a resolution.  At the beginning of the chapter Arya says this is her last day as Mercy, so she was always planning on leaving the mummers that night.

 

I see no reason why the Iron Bank would be unable to deal with 2, 3, or a dozen claimants simultaneously, or even play them off against one another.  They want their money.  Who ultimately wins and how is more or less irrelevant to them, as long as it is someone who will resume payments.

Tycho Nestoris is making no secret of his visit to Castle Black.  As I recall, it was the talk of the place, and he even appeared at the dining hall.  He has to expect that Cersei's allies in the North will find out and send word, and that may be the point.  The Bank may feel that Cersei's knowing that they are making overtures to Stannis may make her more willing to bend on repayment.

  The only mention of this being the end of Mercy is at the end of the chapter.  Given that she will be regarded as either the victim or suspect in a murder case, that identity will obviously have to be shed.  I do not believe that her killing of Raff was the result of any assignment by the FM. 

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On 8/18/2017 at 1:51 PM, Davos the Dragonslayer said:

I don't want Stannis to lose. But if it happens who will get Iron Bank's support against Lannisters?

Personally, I think that Doran Martell is the best candidate. His siblings were killed by Lannisters and he now plots against them with GC.

Please no spoiler from show.

Daenerys.  She has three dragons and she is the most powerful force in all of Essos.  Who controls the Dothraki controls the land mass.

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On ‎09‎.‎11‎.‎2017 at 2:55 AM, Bullrout said:

Daenerys.  She has three dragons and she is the most powerful force in all of Essos.  Who controls the Dothraki controls the land mass.

I doubt that. Braavos in fact opposed the Targaryens when they first appeared in the Westerosi scene, no reason not to oppose them again. Daenerys is breaker of chains now but who can tell what will she be tomorrow, especially with a lineage full of mad people descended from slaver dragon lords of old and to an outsider Danaerys sure seems like she is walking in the footsteps of her father with her burn all attitude. Actually even through her POV she seems like she has a "fondness" for fire and her thoughts are increasingly becoming similar to Aerys II.

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On 8/18/2017 at 1:51 PM, Davos the Dragonslayer said:

I don't want Stannis to lose. But if it happens who will get Iron Bank's support against Lannisters?

Personally, I think that Doran Martell is the best candidate. His siblings were killed by Lannisters and he now plots against them with GC.

Please no spoiler from show.

You answered your own question.  The Boltons.  Roose is smart enough to make sure he pays those debts.  The only fly in the soup, the North is very poor.  I can see Roose convincing Cersei to allow slavery in the kingdom and sell all of the wildlings to slavery.  That is the only way to pay back the bank without depleting the Lannister treasury and Cersei will not give away the Lannister wealth. 

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34 minutes ago, Annalee said:

You answered your own question.  The Boltons.  Roose is smart enough to make sure he pays those debts.  The only fly in the soup, the North is very poor.  I can see Roose convincing Cersei to allow slavery in the kingdom and sell all of the wildlings to slavery.  That is the only way to pay back the bank without depleting the Lannister treasury and Cersei will not give away the Lannister wealth. 

Braavos is a city formed by escaped slaves, they would never accept money gained from slavery.

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35 minutes ago, Annalee said:

You answered your own question.  The Boltons.  Roose is smart enough to make sure he pays those debts.  The only fly in the soup, the North is very poor.  I can see Roose convincing Cersei to allow slavery in the kingdom and sell all of the wildlings to slavery.  That is the only way to pay back the bank without depleting the Lannister treasury and Cersei will not give away the Lannister wealth. 

The Iron Bank is a prominent Braavos institution, and Braavos is militantly opposed to slavery, not to mention likely fierce opposition within Westeros to the practice.  I expect this idea would create even more friction with the IB than already exists.

My guess is that they will continue to exert pressure on the Lannister-Tyrell regime for repayment.  I think the IB expects news of their overtures to Stannis to reach Cersei.  While Stannis is a good Plan B, getting the original debtor, or its successor (in this case, Cersei) is always the best plan.

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