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Damsel in Distress

Current Standings

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Posted (edited)

The continent of Westeros is currently divided between the three rulers.

Queen Daenerys Targaryen

  1. Dorne
  2. Reach
  3. Dragonstone
  4. Westerlands

Cersei Lannister

  1. King's Landing
  2. Stormlands
  3. Crownlands
  4. Riverlands

Jon

  1. North
  2. Vale - allied with the North but under Robert Arryn's rule.
  3. He has a boat load of dragon glass, thanks to the generosity of Queen Daenerys.

 

Queen Daenerys has the best infantry, cavalry, and air force.  Cersei has the best navy. 

The loss of Casterly Rock may seem like a minor sacrifice for now but I believe it will hurt the Team Cersei in the near future.  The strongest castle in Westeros has great strategic importance.  I also think the loss of Yara's Ironborn fleet is significant because it will prevent Team Daenerys from using a naval blockade to isolate King's Landing.  Still, Dany has the advantage and she can take King's Landing at any time.  Which is what Lady Yara and Lady Olenna suggested from the beginning.  Dany should have ignored that little stump and listened to Yara instead.  Team Daenerys would be advised to ask Illyrio, Daario, and Kinvarra for assistance.  Team Jon should bend the knee.

Edited by Damsel in Distress

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Personally I'm not the biggest fan of Daenerys and am not really looking forward to a Targaryen restoration, but she has he dragons - she will win even if she keeps making dumb mistakes.  She could literally burn Euron's entire fleet right now.  The plot demands that she doesn't, but she should.  She will win or she will die and whoever succeeds her will win.

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21 hours ago, Damsel in Distress said:

The continent of Westeros is currently divided between the three rulers.

Queen Daenerys Targaryen

  1. Dorne
  2. Reach
  3. Dragonstone
  4. Westerlands

Cersei Lannister

  1. King's Landing
  2. Stormlands
  3. Crownlands
  4. Riverlands

Jon

  1. North
  2. Vale - allied with the North but under Robert Arryn's rule.
  3. He has a boat load of dragon glass, thanks to the generosity of Queen Daenerys.

 

Queen Daenerys has the best infantry, cavalry, and air force.  Cersei has the best navy. 

The loss of Casterly Rock may seem like a minor sacrifice for now but I believe it will hurt the Team Cersei in the near future.  The strongest castle in Westeros has great strategic importance.  I also think the loss of Yara's Ironborn fleet is significant because it will prevent Team Daenerys from using a naval blockade to isolate King's Landing.  Still, Dany has the advantage and she can take King's Landing at any time.  Which is what Lady Yara and Lady Olenna suggested from the beginning.  Dany should have ignored that little stump and listened to Yara instead.  Team Daenerys would be advised to ask Illyrio, Daario, and Kinvarra for assistance.  Team Jon should bend the knee.

Yara had it right.  They had armies, a fleet, and three dragons.  That was the best time to attack King's Landing.  Tyrion's stupidity is getting annoying. 

33 minutes ago, Lucius Lovejoy said:

Personally I'm not the biggest fan of Daenerys and am not really looking forward to a Targaryen restoration, but she has he dragons - she will win even if she keeps making dumb mistakes.  She could literally burn Euron's entire fleet right now.  The plot demands that she doesn't, but she should.  She will win or she will die and whoever succeeds her will win.

Those were Tyrion's mistakes.  Dany should have listened to Yara and Ollena instead of the dwarf. 

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The only reason I'm inclined to disagree with these rankings is that the north is the hardest terrain to conquer. If it weren't for needing groups against the WW team Jon could literally flip off both of them and laugh as shirtless dothraki or Lannister foot soldiers freeze to death traversing the north. The north would pretty much be unconquerable till winter was over 

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On 21/08/2017 at 0:33 AM, Damsel in Distress said:

Dany should have ignored that little stump and listened to Yara instead. 

Agreed. It would hardly be necessary for Daenerys to burn down cities, as he claims. The Dothraki just have to march into KL while Dany keeps a watchful eye above. A "dracarys" here and there with warning blast from Drogon would keep the civilians cowering well away from any danger. Only those silly enough to resist would be barbecued.

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The show's power balance is a mess, but I'll chime in with a few thoughts.

 

Daenerys:

Dany has a horde of half-naked dothraki light cavalry and winter has come. She likely couldn't carry much food with her. Further, Dothraki don't know shit about siege warfare.

The unsullied are her only reliable and elite troops, but few in numbers.

Dorne leadership is crippled. Dorne has no strong leader to lead its armies and likely many of the liege lords detest the means by which the Sand Snakes seized power.

The Reach fares a little bit better, but again there is no good leader there.

Further, Dany has no general worthy of the title and her advisers are all peace lovers with no military experience.

The only reason Dany's position is the strongest are the dragons, which are only good for open battles. And who will probably die fighting the WW.

She is also committed to fighting the WW, which will weaken her immensely.

Cersei:

Cersei's position at the start of S7 was hopeless, but since the writers wanted to keep her as a plausible threat she got some easy wins with Dorne and the Reach.

The Lannister army was inflated to be super strong, despite fighting in almost every major battle on the continent. Dany baked a good portion of it, but I am sure it's still the strongest infantry on the continent.

The Stormlands were recently in open rebellion with most of their armies died with Stannis. Limited help from there.

The Riverlands were in open rebellion as well, with most of the fighting going there. They are utterly decimated as a fighting force. The current high lord there is Frey and he is dead, along with most of his heirs. No help from there.

The crown lands seem to be mixed into the Lannister forces, which may explain why they are so strong in the first place.

The Ironborn are mighty allies that rule the seas, but Eureon will backstab her on the first opportunity.

John:

The north is utterly decimated manpower wise and the WW are marching on him. He is effectively out of the war.

The knights of the Vale will be tied fighting the WW alongside John.

--------------------------

Taking Casterly Rock was a very stupid mistake. The castle is literally on the other side of the continent, without any strategic value except as the birthplace of Cersei. Military-wise storming King's Landing was the fastest path to victory, but Dany wants to be seen as a savior, not a conqueror and having her capital burnt to the ground (Dragons) AND looted and pillaged (Dothraki) makes for some very unloyal subjects afterwards.

Helping the north is the logical path to victory, but she needs to do something about Cersei. Showing the wight should be enough to make her sign a treaty commit soldiers to the fight in front of the entire court and prepare some dragon fire for the eventual attempt to backstab.

 

Of course, keeping in mind that this is a TV show written by people who rely on suspension of disbelief to carry the plot this won't happen.

 

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