The result of the wight's capture strategy

[Jcat]

Hurrah!  The dumbest plan ever somehow succeeded!  Inspector Clouseau would be proud.  Now they can rip-off Henry VIII's Field of the Cloth of Gold, with the captive Wight as the piece de resistance.

At least it cost Daenerys a dragon, not to mention Thoros.

[Sir Dingleberry]

2 hours ago, falcotron said:

She has gold, an Iron Bank drooling over the idea of giving her more gold, and an envoy off talking to the Golden Company, so she will have an army as soon as she wants one.

If she's smart, she'll hold off on hiring that army. Then she can agree to the armistice, send whatever straggling remnants of an army she has left to fight alongside Dany and Jon, and then hire the GC to take Dragonstone and then Winterfell while everyone's busy at the Wall.

But she'll probably want to do something more mustache-twirly than smart. After all, if she were a man like Tywin, she could grow and twirl a mustache, but she can't, and that's not fair.

I understand that but at the same time the iron bank talked of lending money prior to her losing her entire army. I know the show doesn't always follow logically but I mean there is no where else to get gold in westeros at this point (unless the show just creates some).

 

And did she actually send someone to talk with the golden company? Cause all I saw was the golden bank envoy discussing it but no set plans. 

 

Lol and agreed cersei will probably do something ridiculous if she does get the golden company. 

[Skills]

2 hours ago, falcotron said:

She has gold, an Iron Bank drooling over the idea of giving her more gold, and an envoy off talking to the Golden Company, so she will have an army as soon as she wants one.

If she's smart, she'll hold off on hiring that army. Then she can agree to the armistice, send whatever straggling remnants of an army she has left to fight alongside Dany and Jon, and then hire the GC to take Dragonstone and then Winterfell while everyone's busy at the Wall.

But she'll probably want to do something more mustache-twirly than smart. After all, if she were a man like Tywin, she could grow and twirl a mustache, but she can't, and that's not fair.

Except that's probably exactly what Cersei will do, right?

I don't expect the GC to show up in the S7 finale, but it's easy to see the foreshadowing of them showing up and striking at Dany's forces while they are stretched thin fighting the dead next season. 

[falcotron]

28 minutes ago, Sir Dingleberry said:

I understand that but at the same time the iron bank talked of lending money prior to her losing her entire army. I know the show doesn't always follow logically but I mean there is no where else to get gold in westeros at this point (unless the show just creates some). 

Did you miss the part where Jaime and Randyll discussed the fact that the gold was all at the head of the train, and that "All the gold's safely through the gates of King's Landing", before Dany's attack? That means Cersei has it. And, as you say, there's nowhere else to get gold in Westeros.

28 minutes ago, Sir Dingleberry said:

And did she actually send someone to talk with the golden company? Cause all I saw was the golden bank envoy discussing it but no set plans. 

The bank envoy didn't discuss it, Cersei informed him that "My Hand, Qyburn, has made overtures to the Golden Company". So yes, they're talking.

[falcotron]

24 minutes ago, Skills said:

Except that's probably exactly what Cersei will do, right?

I think she'll do something more eeeevil but less clever instead. Most likely, instead of diplomatically negotiating the cease fire and then backstabbing everyone later at the most ideal moment for her, she'll come up with some plan for how to keep Dany's dragons at bay while she massacres everyone at the cease fire. Which will allow the show to have an extended melee scene where they can throw in all the stuff they're itching to get into S7 if possible—Cleganebowl, Brienne beating Jaime but sparing his life, Gendry and Jon surprising each other and leading to Jon making a joke that we know refers to Rhaegar's death but he doesn't, etc.

[Sir Dingleberry]

12 hours ago, falcotron said:

Did you miss the part where Jaime and Randyll discussed the fact that the gold was all at the head of the train, and that "All the gold's safely through the gates of King's Landing", before Dany's attack? That means Cersei has it. And, as you say, there's nowhere else to get gold in Westeros.

The bank envoy didn't discuss it, Cersei informed him that "My Hand, Qyburn, has made overtures to the Golden Company". So yes, they're talking.

Ya, I'm aware of that but I thought all of that gold was to pay of the Thrones debt, since that has been only been growing more since the first episode.  I mean no figures were given, so I guess some gold leftover could be used for the golden company or the Iron Bank would be willing to give a loan to her, which makes no sense. They were willing to switch sides and back Stannis when he had a very little chance of winning, and yet Dany has like a 99% of winning and the Iron Bank is still willing to back Cersei. 

 

I remember her saying Quyburn had made overtures but I don't see how you convince sellswords to fight dragons. Especially sellswords from the same continent where Dany has been the past couple years and heard/seen all that she has done with said dragons.

[Lady Noble]

I actually don't think Jon gives 2 figs about warning Cersei or convincing her. The Wight demonstration is for the people. I think the people of KL will abandon Cersei to fight if they know they will be directly affected. I think we'll see an army of soldiers from noble houses and commoners alike. 

Also, Jamie half knows what's up. He was very affected by the existence of the dragons. I think he'll be the Lannister to convince the armies the battle is north and the commoners will follow. 

[Lady Noble]

20 hours ago, Dragonandwolf said:

Hi!

I totally feel the same.

I dont think it was worth to have lost a dragon, I dont think Cersei would care about the dead army, even if she sees one.

Oh could you please your fic when its done, Im so sad about Viserion, I wish they hadn´t done that.

 

 

In my fic, it's actually Rhaegal that "dies" (Jon's namesake so to speak) and Jon finds him in the water, they both die and get resurrected my LOL together so they're dead, but a good dead. Like Benjen. But, I'll PM you when it's done, :). It's just a short little one. Like I said, I refuse to honour that plot line, lol.

[falcotron]

8 hours ago, Sir Dingleberry said:

or the Iron Bank would be willing to give a loan to her, which makes no sense.

The reason Tycho was practically drooling over the idea of lending her money is that nobody in history has ever paid off so large a debt so promptly. And that still happened. It's presumably a huge amount of money, and money the Bank thought they were never going to see again, and Cersei promised to get it for them in a fortnight and did so. So if she says she has plans to use their money to hire the GC and make them even more profit, I think they'll take her seriously.

8 hours ago, Sir Dingleberry said:

I don't see how you convince sellswords to fight dragons.

The Golden Company are the descendants of Bittersteel's army, formed to fight for the Blackfyres against Dany's rival branch of the Targaryen family. They pride themselves on being not like a sellsword company—everyone else may call them that, but they call themselves a brotherhood of exiles. And on the fact that they will fight anyone and anything and never break.

So I don't think it'll be too hard to convince the GC to fight Dany, even with her dragons.

[xjlxking]

Some people consider this dumb but I honestly thought it was great.

Lets not forget even the major characters like Davos were shocked to see real magic the first time they encountered it. We saw other characters like the King's Counsel in season 1 laugh at the idea of giants let alone undead. Slint, the captain of the city's watch also laughed when he was at the wall.

if they can actually provide proof to all the major houses to unite them, why is that a bad plan? It's smart! Especially if you look at with Jon point of view. He believes all living have to unite to win this war. 

Would I have done that? Nah, I'd probably lay the Red Keep to the ground before attempting to unite all the houses 

 

 

 

[John Meta]

On 8/21/2017 at 5:59 AM, 3sm1r said:

Let's do a brief summary of what they accomplished with a plan that almost all of us already considered dumb last week.

They have been very lucky and (with two deus ex machina) they "just" gave a dragon to the NK.

In the most probable case they would have also lost Jon Snow. Can you imagine someone who goes to Sansa and say:
"we lost Jon Snow, the King of the North"
"did Daenerys kill him?"
"No, he went beyond the wall to capture a wight" (???!)

On the other side, the positive thing is that they captured a wight, which is basically nothing since the fact that they can show an un-dead does not necessarily mean that there are thousands of them on the other side of the wall.

Who's in charge here?

A deus ex machina means something that was not in the story at all, suddenly appears to resolve an unresolvable situation. There were none of these in the episode. Benjen lives beyond the wall, can easily be following the walkers, can easily know there is a huge battle taking place with dragons; myriad ways for Benjen to show up. (It may be that Three-Eyed Raven sent Benjen, but there's no evidence of that, yet)

Dany is as far from a deus ex machina as you can get. They sent raven to her, and she showed up. That is simply called a succession of events. 

They explained why they went after a wight in the show itself; to prove they are real. Proving they are real is not "nothing" it is everything. You can't convince someone wights are coming if they don't believe wights are real.

 

[3sm1r]

23 minutes ago, John Meta said:

A deus ex machina means something that was not in the story at all, suddenly appears to resolve an unresolvable situation. There were none of these in the episode. Benjen lives beyond the wall, can easily be following the walkers, can easily know there is a huge battle taking place with dragons; myriad ways for Benjen to show up. (It may be that Three-Eyed Raven sent Benjen, but there's no evidence of that, yet)

Dany is as far from a deus ex machina as you can get. They sent raven to her, and she showed up. That is simply called a succession of events. 

They explained why they went after a wight in the show itself; to prove they are real. Proving they are real is not "nothing" it is everything. You can't convince someone wights are coming if they don't believe wights are real.

According to the dictionary a deus ex machina is " an unexpected power or event saving a seemingly hopeless situation, especially as a contrived plot device in a play or novel " and in my opinion both the breaking of the ice and the arrive of Benjen fit well in that description, since both the events
1) are unexpected
2) save a seemingly hopeless situation

Anyway, despite it would surely be very instructive, I don't think there is the urgent need to open a philosophical discussion on the meaning of "deus ex machina", since I'm confident that it's pretty clear to everybody what I am talking about.

Now, for what concerns their brilliant plan, of course having a wight is not completely useless, but when a choice needs to be made, it's pretty important to know what you risk to lose and what you might gain. Well, I really don't see how you can argue that capturing a wight to prove they're real is worth Jon Snow, or giving a dragon to the NK (that's maybe even worse).

[John Meta]

27 minutes ago, 3sm1r said:

According to the dictionary a deus ex machina is " an unexpected power or event saving a seemingly hopeless situation, especially as a contrived plot device in a play or novel " and in my opinion both the breaking of the ice and the arrive of Benjen fit well in that description, since both the events
1) are unexpected
2) save a seemingly hopeless situation

Anyway, despite it would surely be very instructive, I don't think there is the urgent need to open a philosophical discussion on the meaning of "deus ex machina", since I'm confident that it's pretty clear to everybody what I am talking about.

Now, for what concerns their brilliant plan, of course having a wight is not completely useless, but when a choice needs to be made, it's pretty important to know what you risk to lose and what you might gain. Well, I really don't see how you can argue that capturing a wight to prove they're real is worth Jon Snow, or giving a dragon to the NK (that's maybe even worse).

Definitions are definitions, as long as we understand the idea being conveyed I can go with any definition. In this case, your use of deus ex machina means that virtually every story is filled with them, so for them to be in use in this story is normal and nothing to cite by way of a negative connotation. Examples Han Solo at end of Death Star trench run, Riders of Rhohirrim at Pelinor Fields, Darth Vader throwing Emporer into hole at end of Jedi, Frodo throwing ring in fire at end of Return of the King; the list is endless and a deus ex machina is a story norm.

Even again in this case your use of the phrase doesn't correspond to the events because of the condition "unexpected"; since Dany's arrival, again, was expected; even sent for. Benjen to a lesser extent does somewhat correspond but because the use of "deus ex machina" is now defined as a story norm, it is simply a story element. But I would say that his arrival cannot be considered truly unexpected(let alone, as a negative connotation upon writing), since again, he is already beyond the wall, and easily tracks/follows wights. In other words, there is nothing "surprising" about his arrival since it is a reasonable extension of information we already know to be the case. If, say, Arya would've showed up to save Jon that would indeed have been something worth calling "deus ex machina" in the negative connotation.

I believe I can easily argue that capturing a wight should involve your most experienced wight-fighter. Jon himself already stated this in dialogue. An A-level mission, you send your A-team; why would you not when the importance of the outcome is so great? Who should have gone? The B-team? I'm not sure of your reasoning here.

Nobody "gave" a dragon to the Night King. How could Dany or anyone have possibly known the Night King would be there with dragon-piercer spears? Dany went in with her most powerful weapons - why wouldn't she? She's going into a situation in which she doesn't know what she'll be facing. Why wouldn't she go in with her mega-weapons? If you were going into a battle against an unknown, would you take you mega-plasma rifle, or, a stick? 

 

[3sm1r]

5 hours ago, John Meta said:

Definitions are definitions, as long as we understand the idea being conveyed I can go with any definition. In this case, your use of deus ex machina means that virtually every story is filled with them, so for them to be in use in this story is normal and nothing to cite by way of a negative connotation. Examples Han Solo at end of Death Star trench run, Riders of Rhohirrim at Pelinor Fields, Darth Vader throwing Emporer into hole at end of Jedi, Frodo throwing ring in fire at end of Return of the King; the list is endless and a deus ex machina is a story norm.

Even again in this case your use of the phrase doesn't correspond to the events because of the condition "unexpected"; since Dany's arrival, again, was expected; even sent for. Benjen to a lesser extent does somewhat correspond but because the use of "deus ex machina" is now defined as a story norm, it is simply a story element. But I would say that his arrival cannot be considered truly unexpected(let alone, as a negative connotation upon writing), since again, he is already beyond the wall, and easily tracks/follows wights. In other words, there is nothing "surprising" about his arrival since it is a reasonable extension of information we already know to be the case. If, say, Arya would've showed up to save Jon that would indeed have been something worth calling "deus ex machina" in the negative connotation.

I believe I can easily argue that capturing a wight should involve your most experienced wight-fighter. Jon himself already stated this in dialogue. An A-level mission, you send your A-team; why would you not when the importance of the outcome is so great? Who should have gone? The B-team? I'm not sure of your reasoning here.

Nobody "gave" a dragon to the Night King. How could Dany or anyone have possibly known the Night King would be there with dragon-piercer spears? Dany went in with her most powerful weapons - why wouldn't she? She's going into a situation in which she doesn't know what she'll be facing. Why wouldn't she go in with her mega-weapons? If you were going into a battle against an unknown, would you take you mega-plasma rifle, or, a stick? 

It might be arbitrary, to some degree, how "unexpected" an event can be considered. The way I discriminate in order to choose what can be consider a deus ex machina is the plausibility. In this sense, Darth father's conversion wasn't unexpected at all, considering that it was precisely what Luke aimed at doing. 

The breaking of the ice and the rescue of Benjen where a cheap way to save the situation in the least plausible way. Why did they ask for a dragon if apparently everything they needed was a horse? (it makes sense to ask why they didn't take horses in the first place, but if we started discussing the minor flaws we'd never finish). 

She perfectly knew there was great danger waiting for her, Tyrion even said it explicitly. The NK could have killed the second dragon and in that case they would have just doomed the whole humanity. For showing a wight to Cersei... 

The A-team argument doesn't work: the main problem of the mission wasn't the intrinsic difficulty but rather the uncertainty of the danger. That's why it would have obviously been smarter to send soldiers that are skilled but somehow expendable in order to avoid that happened... What actually happened! Which is that Dany had to rescue them. Proving my point. 

[Yoren Luck]

7 hours ago, xjlxking said:

Some people consider this dumb but I honestly thought it was great.

Lets not forget even the major characters like Davos were shocked to see real magic the first time they encountered it. We saw other characters like the King's Counsel in season 1 laugh at the idea of giants let alone undead. Slint, the captain of the city's watch also laughed when he was at the wall.

if they can actually provide proof to all the major houses to unite them, why is that a bad plan? It's smart! Especially if you look at with Jon point of view. He believes all living have to unite to win this war. 

Would I have done that? Nah, I'd probably lay the Red Keep to the ground before attempting to unite all the houses 

 

 

Because there are no other major houses left.  It's Cersei's remnant Lannister forces and Euron's ironborn vs Dany's Unsullied, Dothraki, and Dragons, plus Jon's Northern bannermen, Wildlings, and Sansa's Vale forces.  No other armies in Westeros are a factor anymore in the story.

Dany just defeated Cersei's largest remaining army in battle, and if Cersei doesn't marry Euron no one know what will happen with the Ironborn alliance.  The remaining Lannister forces are still unknown but have to be fairly minimal at this point, reduced to whatever soldiers are at Kings Landing and remnants of the former forces stationed in the Riverlands.  This is why they need the sellswords so badly.

Cersei is mad with power and Euron is just plain mad.  No plan is going to unite them with Dany and Jon.  Every major player on Dany and Jon's side should know this based on their own experiences and relationships with these two characters.  As viewers, we also know this.  Do you honestly expect a wight in Kings Landing is going to convince Euron to fight for Dany?  Do you think it is going to convince Dany to commit her soon to be sellsword forces to fight alongside Dany? It may be enough to lure Jaime and some remnant Lannister forces to join sides but we all know this plan isn't going to work and the characters should know it isn't going to work, and Dany/Jon should know that it is not necessary since Cersei is already on the ropes.  

 

[Sir Dingleberry]

14 hours ago, falcotron said:

The reason Tycho was practically drooling over the idea of lending her money is that nobody in history has ever paid off so large a debt so promptly. And that still happened. It's presumably a huge amount of money, and money the Bank thought they were never going to see again, and Cersei promised to get it for them in a fortnight and did so. So if she says she has plans to use their money to hire the GC and make them even more profit, I think they'll take her seriously.

The Golden Company are the descendants of Bittersteel's army, formed to fight for the Blackfyres against Dany's rival branch of the Targaryen family. They pride themselves on being not like a sellsword company—everyone else may call them that, but they call themselves a brotherhood of exiles. And on the fact that they will fight anyone and anything and never break.

So I don't think it'll be too hard to convince the GC to fight Dany, even with her dragons.

Again, I understand that but it isn't logical.  She repayed such a large amount by literally killing an entire house in Westeros. Hypothetically, the Lannisters do win, there is no way they find such a large amount of gold again in such a short period of time.  I'm just saying the repayment by Cersei was a one time thing that I don't see how the Iron Bank wouldn't understand that.

 

During the Blackfyre rebellions no dragons were present, as far as I remember.  So, I'm not saying that you can't pay the GC to fight Targaryans since they love to do that but they enjoy doing that in order to put their own in charge (as seen in the rebellions), so why would they fight for Cersei if they are indeed more than mercenaries and instead a brotherhood? Also, ideas and history are great in seeing why the GC would fight but again, they've never fought against dragons and we haven't seen a rebellion since the Targaryans rule and as far as the show is concerned, they haven't set a premise for a Blackfyre to ascend the throne.  

[Sir Dingleberry]

7 hours ago, Yoren Luck said:

Because there are no other major houses left.  It's Cersei's remnant Lannister forces and Euron's ironborn vs Dany's Unsullied, Dothraki, and Dragons, plus Jon's Northern bannermen, Wildlings, and Sansa's Vale forces.  No other armies in Westeros are a factor anymore in the story.

Dany just defeated Cersei's largest remaining army in battle, and if Cersei doesn't marry Euron no one know what will happen with the Ironborn alliance.  The remaining Lannister forces are still unknown but have to be fairly minimal at this point, reduced to whatever soldiers are at Kings Landing and remnants of the former forces stationed in the Riverlands.  This is why they need the sellswords so badly.

Cersei is mad with power and Euron is just plain mad.  No plan is going to unite them with Dany and Jon.  Every major player on Dany and Jon's side should know this based on their own experiences and relationships with these two characters.  As viewers, we also know this.  Do you honestly expect a wight in Kings Landing is going to convince Euron to fight for Dany?  Do you think it is going to convince Dany to commit her soon to be sellsword forces to fight alongside Dany? It may be enough to lure Jaime and some remnant Lannister forces to join sides but we all know this plan isn't going to work and the characters should know it isn't going to work, and Dany/Jon should know that it is not necessary since Cersei is already on the ropes.  

 

Agree with all this.

 

Also, on a sidenote, how do the Iron Born remain relevant after this season.  I'm not speaking about Euron but more his ships.  There are no more water threats after this season if we begin to focus on the WWs, unless D&D throw a curveball and they create a magic ice fleet in the span of 1 day like the Iron Born did their fleet. Also, as we saw earlier, Iron Born are largely useless when they aren't by their ships but then again that could change on a whim to fit D&D's narrative.

[RedShirt47]

It was crazy to send Jon, King in the North and Tormund de-facto leader of the Wildlings on such a crazy mission. Get Edd to send some seasoned Night's Watch men out for it. If Jon asked him to do it then Edd would agree. They have the experience of fighting beyond the wall, Gendry had never even seen snow before (he did well without a hat even).

If Sansa's invitation to King's Landing (to which she is sending Brienne) has gone to all the great houses then perhaps it could weaken support for Cersei when they see that the undead (and presumably White Walkers) are real. The Maesters might even get involved.

[falcotron]

6 hours ago, RedShirt47 said:

If Sansa's invitation to King's Landing (to which she is sending Brienne) has gone to all the great houses then perhaps it could weaken support for Cersei when they see that the undead (and presumably White Walkers) are real. The Maesters might even get involved.

Cersei in the West isn't going to turn against herself, Jon isn't going to turn more against her than he already is, Stannis isn't going to rise from the grave…

The Greyjoys are the only great house whose support it even makes sense to talk about weakening, and I doubt showing him a wight is the way to sway Euron.

[John Meta]

14 hours ago, 3sm1r said:

It might be arbitrary, to some degree, how "unexpected" an event can be considered. The way I discriminate in order to choose what can be consider a deus ex machina is the plausibility. In this sense, Darth father's conversion wasn't unexpected at all, considering that it was precisely what Luke aimed at doing. 

Something is unexpected when it doesn't follow an established pattern. Darth Vader did not turn back the entire saber fight, even though Luke tried the entire time to persuade him. Darth Vader broke that pattern and did something, unexpected. My point here is that the way you're using "deus ex machina" describes a narrative construct which occurs throughout every story ever told. If it is "bad writing" then every story ever written must be "bad writing"

Just picking the movie Star Wars there are "deus ex machina" running throughout the movie: Kenobi showing up to save Luke from Sandpeople; R2-D2 deactivating the trash compactor; Han Solo showing up at the trench run; Ben Kenobi saying "Use the force" to Luke; Ben Kenobi saving Luke at the Catina with a lightsaber; none of these were expected, and they all saved a character from a hopeless situation. This is common in stories as a method of creating tension.

The actual meaning of "deus ex machina" means something that has not even been a part of the story at all, unexpectedly showing up. It comes from the Greek use of having a god who was not in the story at all, suddenly appear at the end and resolve everything. If Doctor Who showed up in his TARDIS to rescue Jon Snow that would be "deus ex machina" and I'd agree that is bad writing. Having known characters show in (one being called for, and one being already shown as being in the region scouting) is not "deus ex machina", not even by your definition of "unexpected" because Benjen's appearance isn't breaking a given set of information regarding his location and efforts in the region; and Dany is being specifically called to the area. Both appearances  are entirely consistent to established information

Quote

The breaking of the ice and the rescue of Benjen where a cheap way to save the situation in the least plausible way. Why did they ask for a dragon if apparently everything they needed was a horse? (it makes sense to ask why they didn't take horses in the first place, but if we started discussing the minor flaws we'd never finish). 

Calling it "cheap" is a completely subjective statement based on nothing but an arbitrary value claim. I could claim every construct to create tension in every story is "cheap and not plausible" but it's just a value claim with no meaning

Horses need resources which would slow down the expedition; horses are not suited for a stealth mission.

Quote

 

She perfectly knew there was great danger waiting for her, Tyrion even said it explicitly. The NK could have killed the second dragon and in that case they would have just doomed the whole humanity. For showing a wight to Cersei... 

She could not have known the extent of the danger, no one had ever witnessed it except Jon. And the point is that, if she "perfectly knew there was great danger" why would she not take her dragons? Again, if you are going into a situation in which you know there is great danger - do you take your most powerfuls weapon or not? You do.

Every action has the potential for failure; do you propose no one should ever do anything since it's possible that an action may not cause the perfectly desired outcome? It's like you think characters are omniscient and know what is going to happen, and that Dany is Three-Eyed Raven and forsaw the loss of a dragon but decided to go anyway. That's not what happened.

"They would have just doomed the whole of humanity" is a claim with no support, and no possiblity of being either reasonably deduced or substantially known

"For showing a wight to Cersei" translates as "for providing the only visible evidence which has the potential to rally the forces of the Seven Kingdoms against the coming threat"

Quote

The A-team argument doesn't work: the main problem of the mission wasn't the intrinsic difficulty but rather the uncertainty of the danger. That's why it would have obviously been smarter to send soldiers that are skilled but somehow expendable in order to avoid that happened... What actually happened! Which is that Dany had to rescue them. Proving my point. 

It would not be smarter to send your B-Team on a vital mission. This is why you have an A-Team to begin with. When hunting wights on mission of vital importance of success; you send your A-Team with your most experienced north-of-the-waller wight-hunter. To do otherwise would be risking "dooming the whole of humanity"